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Will the new saeculum start after the pandemic is over?
#1
The pandemic appears to have killed culture wars, Jeremy Corbyn and Sadiq Khan support BoJo's lockdown. Something hard to imagine during the recent 4T defined by a cold civil war. A typical 1T bit.

If not remembering Covid-19 is a criterion, generation Alpha starts in 2017. A baby boom can happen because of the lockdowns and this would make 2021 the equivalent of 1946 in the old saeculum. Millennial end date is also stabilised as people born in 2001 were the last to become legal adults before the pandemic.
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#2
(03-24-2020, 11:40 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote: The pandemic appears to have killed culture wars, Jeremy Corbyn and Sadiq Khan support BoJo's lockdown. Something hard to imagine during the recent 4T defined by a cold civil war. A typical 1T bit.

If not remembering Covid-19 is a criterion, generation Alpha starts in 2017. A baby boom can happen because of the lockdowns and this would make 2021 the equivalent of 1946 in the old saeculum. Millennial end date is also stabilised as people born in 2001 were the last to become legal adults before the pandemic.

There is a bit of humor involved in lauding Boris for doing the exact opposite of what he said he would. Unfortunately, our even worse version of populist plutocrat seems to have missed the lesson.  So you and yours can be on your way.  We catch-up later.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#3
I think we're in the peak of 4T if anything.

2020 is likely this saeculum's equivalent of 1933 (not 1945 like what you said).

1933 was the worst of the Great Depression and when Hitler came to power.

2020 had the WWIII memes, the coronavirus scare, and this new hantavirus scare. These easily make it more remembered as a "new 1933" than a "new 1945".
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#4
(03-24-2020, 04:33 PM)Ghost Wrote: I think we're in the peak of 4T if anything.

2020 is likely this saeculum's equivalent of 1933 (not 1945 like what you said).

1933 was the worst of the Great Depression and when Hitler came to power.

2020 had the WWIII memes, Brexit (which had very mixed feelings across the world), the coronavirus scare, and this new hantavirus scare.

I doubt this 4T will follow the last one in any meaningful way.  We've been plodding around looking for an 3T-exit, 4T-entrance sign since the 9/11 response went sideways in ~2003. By now, we should be ready. Whether we actually are ready is still TBD.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#5
(03-24-2020, 04:48 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 04:33 PM)Ghost Wrote: I think we're in the peak of 4T if anything.

2020 is likely this saeculum's equivalent of 1933 (not 1945 like what you said).

1933 was the worst of the Great Depression and when Hitler came to power.

2020 had the WWIII memes, Brexit (which had very mixed feelings across the world), the coronavirus scare, and this new hantavirus scare.

I doubt this 4T will follow the last one in any meaningful way.  We've been plodding around looking for an 3T-exit, 4T-entrance sign since the 9/11 response went sideways in ~2003. By now, we should be ready. Whether we actually are ready is still TBD.

Ghost seems about right to me on the dating of this 4T. Worse trouble is ahead no doubt.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#6
(03-24-2020, 04:33 PM)Ghost Wrote: I think we're in the peak of 4T if anything.

2020 is likely this saeculum's equivalent of 1933 (not 1945 like what you said).

1933 was the worst of the Great Depression and when Hitler came to power.

2020 had the WWIII memes, the coronavirus scare, and this new hantavirus scare. These easily make it more remembered as a "new 1933" than a "new 1945".

Instead of military warfare might this 4T be defined by germ warfare, which has been done before but probably not on this grand a scale.
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#7
(03-24-2020, 10:22 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 04:33 PM)Ghost Wrote: I think we're in the peak of 4T if anything.

2020 is likely this saeculum's equivalent of 1933 (not 1945 like what you said).

1933 was the worst of the Great Depression and when Hitler came to power.

2020 had the WWIII memes, the coronavirus scare, and this new hantavirus scare. These easily make it more remembered as a "new 1933" than a "new 1945".

Instead of military warfare might this 4T be defined by germ warfare, which has been done before but probably not on this grand a scale.

That could definitely be possible, and at the same time frightening.
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#8
This pandemic will likely fade in a few months. Many more crises ahead.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#9
Should it lead to mass death it could be the defining moment. Wars usually are, but death and social disruption ordinarily mark the climactic moment of a 4T. After the Anglo-American capture of central Italy, the D-Day invasion, Operation Bagration, the July 20 plot on the life of Satan Incarnate, and King Michael's coup in Romania any further military actions by Nazi Germany were anticlimax.

Some of us are finally getting a taste of the economic realities of a Crisis as much of what we used to take for granted is no longer so. 24-hour shopping? It's over, folks! Leisurely, casual dining? Done for the duration -- and I do not mean overcooked. Shortages have been happening in stores. You might want to stock up on dog food if you have you know what.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#10
(03-24-2020, 10:22 PM)beechnut79 Wrote: Instead of military warfare might this 4T be defined by germ warfare, which has been done before but probably not on this grand a scale.

Extreme lockdowns will probably last for a few months, but some measures might even be retained throughout the 1T. They might be the focal point of neo-Missionary rebellion.

Eric the Green Wrote:This pandemic will likely fade in a few months. Many more crises ahead.

Financial Crisis 2008
Migrant Crisis 2015
Populist Crisis 2016-ongoing (foretaste since 2006, as the neocon-neoliberal consensus started to erode)
Coronavirus 2020

Somebody referred to this 4T as a cascade of crises, it seems accurate.
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#11
(03-24-2020, 11:41 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: This pandemic will likely fade in a few months. Many more crises ahead.

More than anything this is changing the culture re: how decisions are made.  Future crises will still have people posturing for their political side, but they will largely be dismissed in favour of people who are genuinely working to find solutions. Plus, it's reassuring to see more people looking to authoritative sources - i.e. science - as opposed to wingnut thinking (oh many will still live their lives based on what they saw on some youtube video, but this will increasingly become the exception).

Of course, I don't live in the US, and certainly not in the midwest or south, so YMMV.
"But there's a difference between error and dishonesty, and it's not a trivial difference." - Ben Greenman
"Relax, it'll be all right, and by that I mean it will first get worse."
"How was I supposed to know that there'd be consequences for my actions?" - Gina Linetti
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#12
(03-24-2020, 11:53 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Should it lead to mass death it could be the defining moment. Wars usually are, but death and social disruption ordinarily mark the climactic moment of a 4T. After the Anglo-American capture of central Italy, the  D-Day invasion, Operation Bagration, the July 20 plot on the life of Satan Incarnate, and King Michael's coup in Romania any further military actions by Nazi Germany were anticlimax.

Some of us are finally getting a taste of  the economic realities of a Crisis as much of what we used to take for granted is no longer so. 24-hour shopping? It's over, folks! Leisurely, casual dining? Done for the duration -- and I do not mean overcooked. Shortages have been happening in stores. You might want to stock up on dog food if you have you know what.

But don’t you think that we will have 24 hour shopping for the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas? Don’t believe we will ever return to the days of non-essential stores being closed on Sunday, do you?
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#13
(03-25-2020, 05:14 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 10:22 PM)beechnut79 Wrote: Instead of military warfare might this 4T be defined by germ warfare, which has been done before but probably not on this grand a scale.

Extreme lockdowns will probably last for a few months, but some measures might even be retained throughout the 1T. They might be the focal point of neo-Missionary rebellion.

Eric the Green Wrote:This pandemic will likely fade in a few months. Many more crises ahead.

Financial Crisis 2008
Migrant Crisis 2015
Populist Crisis 2016-ongoing (foretaste since 2006, as the neocon-neoliberal consensus started to erode)
Coronavirus 2020

Somebody referred to this 4T as a cascade of crises, it seems accurate.
I'd change Populist Crisis to "Extreme sides crisis" and put it at 2014-ongoing because 2014 was when the Isla Vista shooting and Gamergate took place.
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#14
(03-25-2020, 05:14 AM)Blazkovitz Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 10:22 PM)beechnut79 Wrote: Instead of military warfare might this 4T be defined by germ warfare, which has been done before but probably not on this grand a scale.

Extreme lockdowns will probably last for a few months, but some measures might even be retained throughout the 1T. They might be the focal point of neo-Missionary rebellion.

Eric the Green Wrote:This pandemic will likely fade in a few months. Many more crises ahead.

Financial Crisis 2008
Migrant Crisis 2015
Populist Crisis 2016-ongoing (foretaste since 2006, as the neocon-neoliberal consensus started to erode)
Coronavirus 2020

Somebody referred to this 4T as a cascade of crises, it seems accurate.

I agree that this crisis period has seen a lot of serious events that have been addressed well and not so well.  If this one goes sideways due to piss-poor management by our faux-leaders, I doubt we'll need more to get us realigned.

Remember, we started way too early with 9/11 (handled poorly, but no less severe).  We don't need to make mental adjustments.  Young adults will vote in this election who weren't even born in 2001.  They have the crisis mentality in full.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#15
(03-24-2020, 04:33 PM)Ghost Wrote: I think we're in the peak of 4T if anything.

2020 is likely this saeculum's equivalent of 1933 (not 1945 like what you said).

1933 was the worst of the Great Depression and when Hitler came to power.

2020 had the WWIII memes, the coronavirus scare, and this new hantavirus scare. These easily make it more remembered as a "new 1933" than a "new 1945".

I agree.
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#16
(03-26-2020, 01:30 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 04:33 PM)Ghost Wrote: I think we're in the peak of 4T if anything.

2020 is likely this saeculum's equivalent of 1933 (not 1945 like what you said).

1933 was the worst of the Great Depression and when Hitler came to power.

2020 had the WWIII memes, the coronavirus scare, and this new hantavirus scare. These easily make it more remembered as a "new 1933" than a "new 1945".

I agree.

And if the 2020 election ends up being more dramatic than the previous presidential election, it will only strengthen my claim.
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#17
(03-25-2020, 08:55 AM)beechnut79 Wrote:
(03-24-2020, 11:53 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Should it lead to mass death it could be the defining moment. Wars usually are, but death and social disruption ordinarily mark the climactic moment of a 4T. After the Anglo-American capture of central Italy, the  D-Day invasion, Operation Bagration, the July 20 plot on the life of Satan Incarnate, and King Michael's coup in Romania any further military actions by Nazi Germany were anticlimax.

Some of us are finally getting a taste of  the economic realities of a Crisis as much of what we used to take for granted is no longer so. 24-hour shopping? It's over, folks! Leisurely, casual dining? Done for the duration -- and I do not mean overcooked. Shortages have been happening in sto res. You might want to stock up on dog food if you have you know what.

But don’t you think that we will have 24 hour shopping for the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas? Don’t believe we will ever return to the days of non-essential stores being closed on Sunday, do you?

If COVID-19 abates by Thanksgiving and the economy isn't tanked, then the late-year retail frenzy will be back. 

People are going to find out what they can live without, and what they absolutely must have. Much brick-and-mortar retail will die because it was on life support and the plug was yanked. 

So far, impulse shopping that makes retailing profitable is over. If COVID-19 lingers as a communicable disease, then it will  dictate changes -- like appointments necessary for visiting an auto dealership or a shoe store.

In my case I have become less chatty in person out of respect for the need of social distancing -- at least for the duration.

The people most likely to have enduring effects upon their attitudes will of course be children of the time.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#18
(03-25-2020, 10:52 AM)Ghost Wrote: I'd change Populist Crisis to "Extreme sides crisis" and put it at 2014-ongoing because 2014 was when the Isla Vista shooting and Gamergate took place.

Extreme left-wing ideas were part of campus culture since the 1960s. In the 1980s there were already crazy feminists decrying the word "caucus" as sexist because it starts with "cock". 

The mid-2010s were when a matching subculture, the neoreactionaries aka redpillers, emerged on the Right.
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