11-17-2016, 06:19 PM
(11-14-2016, 12:03 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: Just like the 3T went on, and on, and on, it looks like the 4T will as well.It isn't a matter of working out well or not. Modern 4Ts have a causative factor. If the factor is still present the 4T keeps on going and going until it no longer is. The theory I am working off is the Demographic Structural Theory as applied to secular cycles by Peter Turchin. Assuming that my analysis of three rather than two American secular cycles is correct, then the secular cycle and the saeculum are essentially the same cycle. Secular cycles/saeculum get resolved in the depression phase/secular crisis, after which a new secular cycle/saeculum beginning. This resolution is triggered by high sociopolitical stress, which is why 4Ts feel like 4Ts. Using Turchin's ideas, sociopolitical stress is driven by inequality. In the past high stress has eventually brought about external invasion (Norman Conquest, Glorious Revolution), Civil War (Wars of the Roses, American Revolution, US Civil War) or economic collapse (Depression & WW II).
So far the economy has made two attempts to collapse, both of which were stopped by the economic authorities. The first attempt was after 911, the Fed was easily able to thwart it by slashing interest rates. The underlying problem (rising inequality) was not fixed, and this "solution" turned out to be a bandaid. What they did was stoke a bubble in real estate. The economy made a second attempt at collapse in 2008. Again economic policy makers rode out to meet the enemy, and they managed to stave off collapse. But the Fed exhausted their ammo. Today, as the business cycle is turning 9, interest rates remain at levels normally used only in the depths of a serious recession. The government which had been running a surplus before 2002 and had lots of reserve borrowing capacity (recall Gore's "lockbox") spent it all on reckless wars ad tax cuts, and on anti-depression policies. The Fed printed trillions of dollars to bail out financial interests, leaving a huge mass of "effective money" which will show up as inflation if the economy ever does come back to trend growth. The result is another huge bubble, this time in stocks.
If this analysis is correct the economy will try to collapse a third time. This time it will be Trump's turn to try and stop it. If he fails we wfinally get our regeneracy. If he succeeds the 4T will drag on. Baring civil war or revolution the 4T can, I suppose, go on for the rest of our lives. Each time a regeneracy tries to happen, the economic authorities will step up and somehow prevent it. It's not like once the Boomers pass from the scene it will be over. The country will still be in the same shape as before and rich, elite Gex Xers will be no more willing to accept less of the brass ring than the boomers before them.
This is an important observation. Generational effects are only apparent under the right conditions. I work with Millennial, Xer and Boomer chemical engineers and scientists. There really isn't any difference between us. The traits that make us engineers and scientists outweigh any generational effects. On the other hand, I knew working class boomers (kids I grew up with and went to school with). And I know working class millennials (my grandkids and the people they get romantically involved with). Working class Boomers and Millennials ARE different in ways that Engineer Boomers and Millennials are not.
In other words, for generations to matter, the right environmental conditions are necessary. Working class folks are feeling the effects of the stress and so they manifest generational behaviors. Elites have not yet felt the effects and so all generations will defend elite prerogatives equally. If the economy collapses, then they will start to show generational behavior.