05-17-2016, 05:53 PM
Note: This assessment can change rapidly should the Republicans not play obstructionist games with the nomination of a Justice of the Supreme Court. Anyone with an approval rating below 40% is in extreme danger of defeat, no matter what State he represents. Many pols with such low approval ratings retire or get defeated in a primary.
Of course, should Republicans act responsibly with an Obama appointment this assessment reverses.
Update: Vermont, Vermont Public Radio/Castleton: Pat Leahy is up 65-14. I doubt that anyone can dispute this one.
From March (last update)
My take (and rationale):
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=1960&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=0;99;6]](http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1960&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=3;;3&AK=3;;3&AZ=2;26;2&AR=2;40;4&CA=4;D;1&CO=1;46;4&CT=1;;6&DE=0;;5&DC=0;;9&FL=4;R;1&GA=2;38;3&HI=5;;3&ID=3;;3&IL=2;25;2&IN=4;R;1&IA=2;47;4&KS=2;42;4&KY=3;;3&LA=4;R;1&MD=4;D;1&MA=0;;0;&MI=0;;5&MN=0;;4&MS=0;;5&MO=2;25;2&MT=0;;5&NV=4;D;1&NH=2;38;3&NJ=4;D;4&NM=0;;5&NY=1;;6&NC=2;28;2&ND=3;;3&OH=2;30;3&OK=0;;6&OR=5;;3&PA=2;29;2&RI=0;;6&SC=2;50;5&SD=3;;3&TN=0;;5&TX=0;;4&UT=2;50;5&VT=1;;6&VA=0;;5&WA=1;47;4&WV=0;;6&WI=2;32;3&WY=0;;6&ME=0;;5&ME1=0;X;9&ME2=0;X;9&NE=0;;5&NE1=0;X;9&NE2=0;X;9&NE3=0;99;6)
Approval polls only.
Gray -- no incumbent at risk.
White -- retiring incumbent or (should it happen) an incumbent defeated in a primary, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Yellow -- incumbent under indictment or with a terminal diagnosis short of the completion of his term, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Light green -- Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Light orange -- Democratic incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Blue -- Republican running for re-election with current polls available.
Red -- Democrat running for re-election with current polls available.
Intensity percentage shows the first digit of the approval of the incumbent Senator --
"2" for approval between 20% and 30%, "3" for approval between 30% and 39%... "7" for approval between 70% and 79%.
Numbers are recent approval ratings for incumbent Senators if their approvals are below 55%. I'm not showing any number for any incumbent whose approval is 55% or higher because even this early that looks very safe.
An asterisk (*) is for an appointed incumbent (there are none now) because appointed pols have never shown their electability.
Approval only (although I might accept A/B/C/D/F) -- not favorability. I do not use any Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor ratings because "fair" is ambiguous. A fair performance by a 7-year-old violinist might impress you. A 'fair' performance by an adult violinist indicates something for which you would not want to buy a ticket.
NO PARTISAN POLLS.
What I see so far with incumbents:
App Rep Dem
<40 8 0
40-44 2 0
45-49 1 2
50-54 3 0
55-59 0 0
>60 0 3
retire 3 3
indict 0 1
oth off 1 0
no poll 6 1
Now -- my projection for the 2016 Senate election:
Sure R:
Alabama
Idaho
North Dakota
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah
Likely R:
Alaska
Iowa (from Sure R)
Kansas
Edge R:
Arkansas
Indiana
Kentucky
Louisiana
Tossups
Arizona (from Edge R)
Georgia (from Edge R)
Nevada
All but one of the current tossups are current R seats.
Edge D:
Colorado
Florida*
Missouri* (from toss-up)
New Hampshire*
North Carolina* (from toss-up)
Ohio*
Pennsylvania*
Likely D:
Oregon
Washington
Solid D:
California
Connecticut
Hawaii
Illinois*
Maryland
Vermont
Wisconsin*
*flip (so far all R to D)
New Jersey looks like a fairly sure hold should current, but indicted, Senator Bob Menendez be compelled to resign.
Of course, should Republicans act responsibly with an Obama appointment this assessment reverses.
Update: Vermont, Vermont Public Radio/Castleton: Pat Leahy is up 65-14. I doubt that anyone can dispute this one.
From March (last update)
My take (and rationale):
Approval polls only.
Gray -- no incumbent at risk.
White -- retiring incumbent or (should it happen) an incumbent defeated in a primary, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Yellow -- incumbent under indictment or with a terminal diagnosis short of the completion of his term, with "D" or "R" for the party in question.
Light green -- Republican incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Light orange -- Democratic incumbent apparently running for re-election, no polls.
Blue -- Republican running for re-election with current polls available.
Red -- Democrat running for re-election with current polls available.
Intensity percentage shows the first digit of the approval of the incumbent Senator --
"2" for approval between 20% and 30%, "3" for approval between 30% and 39%... "7" for approval between 70% and 79%.
Numbers are recent approval ratings for incumbent Senators if their approvals are below 55%. I'm not showing any number for any incumbent whose approval is 55% or higher because even this early that looks very safe.
An asterisk (*) is for an appointed incumbent (there are none now) because appointed pols have never shown their electability.
Approval only (although I might accept A/B/C/D/F) -- not favorability. I do not use any Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor ratings because "fair" is ambiguous. A fair performance by a 7-year-old violinist might impress you. A 'fair' performance by an adult violinist indicates something for which you would not want to buy a ticket.
NO PARTISAN POLLS.
What I see so far with incumbents:
App Rep Dem
<40 8 0
40-44 2 0
45-49 1 2
50-54 3 0
55-59 0 0
>60 0 3
retire 3 3
indict 0 1
oth off 1 0
no poll 6 1
Now -- my projection for the 2016 Senate election:
Sure R:
Alabama
Idaho
North Dakota
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah
Likely R:
Alaska
Iowa (from Sure R)
Kansas
Edge R:
Arkansas
Indiana
Kentucky
Louisiana
Tossups
Arizona (from Edge R)
Georgia (from Edge R)
Nevada
All but one of the current tossups are current R seats.
Edge D:
Colorado
Florida*
Missouri* (from toss-up)
New Hampshire*
North Carolina* (from toss-up)
Ohio*
Pennsylvania*
Likely D:
Oregon
Washington
Solid D:
California
Connecticut
Hawaii
Illinois*
Maryland
Vermont
Wisconsin*
*flip (so far all R to D)
New Jersey looks like a fairly sure hold should current, but indicted, Senator Bob Menendez be compelled to resign.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.