Why does the Fourth Turning seem to take Forever?

[Eric the Green]

(01-14-2020, 11:41 AM)Remy Renault Wrote:

(01-14-2020, 12:16 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(01-13-2020, 05:10 PM)Remy Renault Wrote: I predict if the Democrats win in 2020, a major overseas shooting war is unlikely, not because there aren't Democrats with a vested interest in America's current foreign policy trajectory (there are many), but because the political polarization at home ushering in the Cold Civil War will escalate to such a degree and become too big to ignore that whoever's in the White House will have no choice but to table foreign policy preoccupations in order to conquer the demons at home. This may of course entail major sacrifices on the part of the American foreign policy establishment, such as allowing Putin to "have Europe" just as they allowed Stalin to have Central Europe after World War II. Who knows what would happen in the Middle East...

Once the domestic issues have been sorted out, the US will be too politically exhausted and won't be motivated enough to 'Stop Putin' in my opinion, which means he'll get exactly what he wants, the end of Atlanticism.

And as for the issue of economic inequality vs. climate change, one issue could conceivably resolve the other by proxy or at least be a big step in the right direction for the other, just like with the Depression and World War II. You never know.

And quite honestly, a war for the "soul of Western civilization" with Putin will not be worth it on our part, even if liberal Europeans will be infuriated. And they'll have no power to stop him without American military might seeing as the E.U. is just as political fractured as the US is right now.

I think by 2025 the USA may have no option but to do both. Fortunately, the Putin problem may be confined to their support for tyranny in the Middle East, behavior already established but not yet dealt with at all. Until 2025 both problems will be increasingly but haltingly confronted until further delays in full action can't any longer be indulged in by then. This is what the planetary cycles decree, in my observation. Putin might not attempt an invasion to The West, because he will be preoccupied with this Middle East effort and by his own problems at home, although I can't rule it out entirely.

I guess you are saying "who knows what will happen in the Middle East" and I am saying "who knows what will happen in Europe"

Probably really correct actions on either front won't be possible until the blocks which the right-wing has put up are finally all moved out of the way. Then, lots of action will happen fast. Violence is not inevitable, if we have reached some kind of new age, but according to the record of past 4Ts, such violence is probably likely. It will only take about 4 years from 2025 to handle these situations until somewhat of a consensus is reached and things can move more smoothly, with some conservatism returning.

As I see it, the 1T of the saeculum cycle must begin no later than 2029, because the next 2T can't be held back any longer than 2047, according to the cosmic timetable.

Is foreign intervention on the Americans' part what you predict or simply what you want? Putin is nowhere near the geopolitical threat Hitler was. The latter was a raving lunatic. Putin is a tactically-minded ubermensch more in the vain of someone like Napoleon. "Stopping Putin" is really just neoliberal virtue signalling. He'll leave you alone so long as you stay out of his way. Granted, the endurance of Atlanticism "gets in his way", since it's essentially outdated Cold War politics under a different name. The US has bigger fish to fry on the domestic front. Needless to say, the country wasn't as politically fractured during the Depression.

And the US has enabled it's fair share of tyrants, as well, especially in Latin America, and also in Saudi Arabia as we speak. So the Americans don't have the moral upper hand on this one.

There'd be no justifiable reason to go to war with Putin unless he launches an unprovoked attack on the contiguous United States, Alaska, and/or Hawaii, which he's not going to do, so...Otherwise, there'd be no reason to justify expending the resources given the domestic turmoil we're facing.

No, I for sure don't want US intervention, as far as I know now. I pretty much agree with you about Putin and the USA. Putin's aggressive and tyrannical but he's not insane. He's an excellent strategist. I believe you were the one who said Putin might invade Europe and end Atlanticism. That would be insane and aggressive on Putin's part, even if the USA is weakened by its likely domestic squabbles.

If Putin did attack NATO countries, though, I think the USA would have to fight him. And the Baltic countries are in NATO. The danger with Trump is he seems to give the impression the USA might not oppose such an invasion, which would tempt Putin to try one. I don't see it happening now though, because the war cycle is not around. Things do move in cycles, and the USA is war weary now. The cosmic signs do point to the Kurdish area in 2025 rather than to northern Europe, generally speaking, as the likeliest war zone at that time, although that's rather unclear to me right now. And something is likely to break out there near the end of 2020.