Strauss and Howe broke the 4T into four phases:
1. Catalyst - Event that sparks the crisis. (ie Stock Market Crash of 1929)
2. Regeneracy - Call to Action and unity in response. (FDR's New Deal in the mid 1930s)
3. Climax - Darkest point of the crisis. (ie attack on Pearl Harbor 1941)
4. Resolution - Winners and losers are decided, and new institutions rise as the country is put on a new trajectory. But every solution creates a new problem, and the next cycle is all about addressing that new problem. (ie end of WWII - 1945)
I've changed my opinion on the catalyst to this crisis. I think it was indeed September 11 2001. The regeneracy happened soon after. We were united for a time, but the ensuing wars and the patriot act soon divided the country worse than before. The other mini-catalysts, ie Katrina, the 2008 financial crisis, Tea Party Movement, Occupy Wall street and Election 2016 did more to deepen the divide in the country and exacerbated the Crisis. But COVID-19 definitely marks the climax of this 4T. It's our WWII moment.
And going back to The Civil War Cycle, I disagree with where Strauss and Howe draw their boundaries. I have made whole video about this if you're interested, but to summarize, here's how I would divide up the Civil War Cycle:
1T - 1789-1807 - The Constitution is put into a Effect and George Washington becomes the first President. A new country is established and party lines are drawn between John Adams' more classically conservative "Federalist Party" and Thomas Jefferson's more classically liberal "Democratic-Republican Party".
2T - 1807-1828 - The Atlantic Slave Trade is banned, slavery ends in the North, and the US gains the midwestern territories. The War of 1812 results in the collapse of the Federalist Party and the "Era of Good Feelings" begins. Only one party, Jefferson's Democratic-Republican Party, is dominant for the rest of the turning.
3T - 1828-1848 - The Election of Andrew Jackson ends the "Era of Good Feelings". The Democratic-Republican Party splits into a more populist left wing Democrat Party and the more classically conservative Whig Party. Manifest Destiny, The Gold Rush and westward expansion results in The Mexican War and Sectionalism.
And I would break up the 4T (1848-1865) into these phases:
1. Catalyst - 1848. The Mexican War ends. The issue over whether new territories should be free states or slave states comes to the fore.
2. Regeneracy - 1850. Compromise of 1850 at first unites the country, but ultimately results in more division (sort of like what happened after our own regeneracy). The Whig Party Collapses in 1852, and the new anti-slavery Republican Party replaces it. The country is divided between southern pro-slave, and northern anti-slave lines even more than before.
3. Climax - 1860. Lincoln is elected and the Confederacy breaks away, resulting in the Civil War.
4. Resolution - 1865. The North wins the Civil War, Lincoln is assassinated and Reconstruction begins in the next 1st Turning.
1. Catalyst - Event that sparks the crisis. (ie Stock Market Crash of 1929)
2. Regeneracy - Call to Action and unity in response. (FDR's New Deal in the mid 1930s)
3. Climax - Darkest point of the crisis. (ie attack on Pearl Harbor 1941)
4. Resolution - Winners and losers are decided, and new institutions rise as the country is put on a new trajectory. But every solution creates a new problem, and the next cycle is all about addressing that new problem. (ie end of WWII - 1945)
I've changed my opinion on the catalyst to this crisis. I think it was indeed September 11 2001. The regeneracy happened soon after. We were united for a time, but the ensuing wars and the patriot act soon divided the country worse than before. The other mini-catalysts, ie Katrina, the 2008 financial crisis, Tea Party Movement, Occupy Wall street and Election 2016 did more to deepen the divide in the country and exacerbated the Crisis. But COVID-19 definitely marks the climax of this 4T. It's our WWII moment.
And going back to The Civil War Cycle, I disagree with where Strauss and Howe draw their boundaries. I have made whole video about this if you're interested, but to summarize, here's how I would divide up the Civil War Cycle:
1T - 1789-1807 - The Constitution is put into a Effect and George Washington becomes the first President. A new country is established and party lines are drawn between John Adams' more classically conservative "Federalist Party" and Thomas Jefferson's more classically liberal "Democratic-Republican Party".
2T - 1807-1828 - The Atlantic Slave Trade is banned, slavery ends in the North, and the US gains the midwestern territories. The War of 1812 results in the collapse of the Federalist Party and the "Era of Good Feelings" begins. Only one party, Jefferson's Democratic-Republican Party, is dominant for the rest of the turning.
3T - 1828-1848 - The Election of Andrew Jackson ends the "Era of Good Feelings". The Democratic-Republican Party splits into a more populist left wing Democrat Party and the more classically conservative Whig Party. Manifest Destiny, The Gold Rush and westward expansion results in The Mexican War and Sectionalism.
And I would break up the 4T (1848-1865) into these phases:
1. Catalyst - 1848. The Mexican War ends. The issue over whether new territories should be free states or slave states comes to the fore.
2. Regeneracy - 1850. Compromise of 1850 at first unites the country, but ultimately results in more division (sort of like what happened after our own regeneracy). The Whig Party Collapses in 1852, and the new anti-slavery Republican Party replaces it. The country is divided between southern pro-slave, and northern anti-slave lines even more than before.
3. Climax - 1860. Lincoln is elected and the Confederacy breaks away, resulting in the Civil War.
4. Resolution - 1865. The North wins the Civil War, Lincoln is assassinated and Reconstruction begins in the next 1st Turning.