Here are my thoughts on this current “Cold War Cycle” (1945-Present). I agree with the first half of Strauss and Howe’s analysis. But would make some changes to the second half:
First Turning - 1945 - the USA and USSR emerge from WWII as the two dominant world powers. The Cold War begins. The Korean War breaks out and ends in an armistice. Keynesian Neoliberalism replaces Classical Liberalism and Progressivism in the Democratic Party as the world becomes more Globally connected. The UN, NATO and the IMF world bank is established as the world becomes more globally centralized. The Civil Rights Acts of the 50s and early 60s to end Jim Crowe and Segregation are put into effect and the Federal Government gains more power over the states.
Second Turning - 1964 - JFK is assassinated and the Cold War heats up with the Vietnam War. The peace movements quickly make the war unpopular. Neoconservatism (a more conservative, supply side flavor of Neoliberalism) begins to emerge and dominate in the Republican Party. The gold standard is officially abandoned and the classically liberal Libertarian Party forms to challenge the more dominant and interventionist Neoliberalism of both parties. Nixon resigns in shame as a result of Watergate, rapid stagflation ensues and the election of Jimmy Carter in 1976 is the last time The Democrats are able to win the southern states. A poor economy, his pessimistic malaise speech and mishandling of the Iran situation results in his loss to Reagan in 1980.
Third Turning - 1980 - Strauss and Howe start this turning with Reagan’s optimistic “Morning in America” campaign in 1984 that resulted his sweeping electoral victory. But I chose to move it back earlier to 1980 when he won his first term, since that’s when things really started to change. The economy soared for most of the 80s and 90s and the USSR collapsed in 1989. The other major communist power, China, adopted a more free market friendly economy, but never completely abandoned communism and totalitarianism. The Culture War heated up as the more traditional values of the right clashed with the more progressive values of the left. Universities, schools and the press became more left leaning. Immigration and Globalism increased as America became more reliant on other countries (especially China) for manufacturing.
Fourth Turning - 2001 - Strauss and Howe believe the current 4T started with the 2008 Financial Crisis, and I used to agree with them. But as time has passed it seems clear to me that it started on September 11th 2001. Here are the phases of this current Fourth Turning:
1. Catalyst - 2001 - The terrorist attacks on September 11th 2001 shocked the world and showed us that, just because the we “won” the cold war, we weren’t yet at peace.
2. Regeneracy - 2001 - The regeneracy for this catalyst was immediate as volunteers rushed in to save lives. Despite the growing culture war, the country came together with a new sense of patriotism. But over time, the unity collapsed as the war on Terror spread to Iraq and the Patriot Act was passed. Anti-war leftists and libertarians turned against the hyper-interventionist surveillance state. Events like Katrina in 2005, the financial meltdown of 2008, The Great Recession, The Tea Party Movement and Occupy Wall Street only served to further divide the country and exacerbated the crisis as the culture war raged worse than ever before. Like it did during the Civil War 4T, the regeneracy failed. The establishment and pro-war Neo-liberal and Neo-conservative factions of both parties became increasingly discredited in favor of an anti-war populism on both the left and right. Brexit and Trump’s election saw a rejection of globalism and a desire to secure borders and bring manufacturing back home. The economy made a massive recovery after 2016 and was booming during the first few years of Trump’s presidency. But Trump was a divisive figure who was hated by the Democrats and he was impeached in late 2019.
3. Climax - 2019 - The first case of COVID-19 was discovered in Wuhan China in late November 2019. The disease spread rapidly and resulted in thousands of deaths. In the US, the politicians and press were distracted by the impeachment trial and were late to react. China was unable to contain the disease and it spread all over the world. By March 2020 governments all over the world mandated self quarantine, business lockdowns and social distancing. The economy, which was booming only a month earlier, collapsed and drastic measures were needed to be taken to save people from falling into poverty while still protecting the public from infection. Unfortunately we are still so divided that we can’t even come to an agreement on a simple stimulus bill. We have been divided so long and so badly that even a virus can easily conquer us. But I’m optimistic that we’ll get our act together before it’s too late.
First Turning - 1945 - the USA and USSR emerge from WWII as the two dominant world powers. The Cold War begins. The Korean War breaks out and ends in an armistice. Keynesian Neoliberalism replaces Classical Liberalism and Progressivism in the Democratic Party as the world becomes more Globally connected. The UN, NATO and the IMF world bank is established as the world becomes more globally centralized. The Civil Rights Acts of the 50s and early 60s to end Jim Crowe and Segregation are put into effect and the Federal Government gains more power over the states.
Second Turning - 1964 - JFK is assassinated and the Cold War heats up with the Vietnam War. The peace movements quickly make the war unpopular. Neoconservatism (a more conservative, supply side flavor of Neoliberalism) begins to emerge and dominate in the Republican Party. The gold standard is officially abandoned and the classically liberal Libertarian Party forms to challenge the more dominant and interventionist Neoliberalism of both parties. Nixon resigns in shame as a result of Watergate, rapid stagflation ensues and the election of Jimmy Carter in 1976 is the last time The Democrats are able to win the southern states. A poor economy, his pessimistic malaise speech and mishandling of the Iran situation results in his loss to Reagan in 1980.
Third Turning - 1980 - Strauss and Howe start this turning with Reagan’s optimistic “Morning in America” campaign in 1984 that resulted his sweeping electoral victory. But I chose to move it back earlier to 1980 when he won his first term, since that’s when things really started to change. The economy soared for most of the 80s and 90s and the USSR collapsed in 1989. The other major communist power, China, adopted a more free market friendly economy, but never completely abandoned communism and totalitarianism. The Culture War heated up as the more traditional values of the right clashed with the more progressive values of the left. Universities, schools and the press became more left leaning. Immigration and Globalism increased as America became more reliant on other countries (especially China) for manufacturing.
Fourth Turning - 2001 - Strauss and Howe believe the current 4T started with the 2008 Financial Crisis, and I used to agree with them. But as time has passed it seems clear to me that it started on September 11th 2001. Here are the phases of this current Fourth Turning:
1. Catalyst - 2001 - The terrorist attacks on September 11th 2001 shocked the world and showed us that, just because the we “won” the cold war, we weren’t yet at peace.
2. Regeneracy - 2001 - The regeneracy for this catalyst was immediate as volunteers rushed in to save lives. Despite the growing culture war, the country came together with a new sense of patriotism. But over time, the unity collapsed as the war on Terror spread to Iraq and the Patriot Act was passed. Anti-war leftists and libertarians turned against the hyper-interventionist surveillance state. Events like Katrina in 2005, the financial meltdown of 2008, The Great Recession, The Tea Party Movement and Occupy Wall Street only served to further divide the country and exacerbated the crisis as the culture war raged worse than ever before. Like it did during the Civil War 4T, the regeneracy failed. The establishment and pro-war Neo-liberal and Neo-conservative factions of both parties became increasingly discredited in favor of an anti-war populism on both the left and right. Brexit and Trump’s election saw a rejection of globalism and a desire to secure borders and bring manufacturing back home. The economy made a massive recovery after 2016 and was booming during the first few years of Trump’s presidency. But Trump was a divisive figure who was hated by the Democrats and he was impeached in late 2019.
3. Climax - 2019 - The first case of COVID-19 was discovered in Wuhan China in late November 2019. The disease spread rapidly and resulted in thousands of deaths. In the US, the politicians and press were distracted by the impeachment trial and were late to react. China was unable to contain the disease and it spread all over the world. By March 2020 governments all over the world mandated self quarantine, business lockdowns and social distancing. The economy, which was booming only a month earlier, collapsed and drastic measures were needed to be taken to save people from falling into poverty while still protecting the public from infection. Unfortunately we are still so divided that we can’t even come to an agreement on a simple stimulus bill. We have been divided so long and so badly that even a virus can easily conquer us. But I’m optimistic that we’ll get our act together before it’s too late.