06-08-2020, 01:22 PM
(06-08-2020, 08:02 AM)LPDec63 Wrote: I think that the actual battle lines of this "Cold Civil War" 4T were set in the botched election in Florida in the year 2000. The fact that there was no clear winner on Election Night, and that it actually went to the SC to determine a winner were very jolting at the time. The Shock of that election was largely forgotten because Team Blue accepted the result even if we were not happy about it. And of course because 9/11 happened less then a year later.
But, that was the night that "blue state" and "red state" became widely understood terms. Because those were the colors that the networks used that night on their Electoral College maps. I believe that before that night Blue was incumbent party in the WH, and Red meant challenging party. It was that disrupted election night that set the tone for the cascade that has followed. That being said, the fact that the Blue States accepted it without too much protest shows that it was a 3rd turning event. But it gave the Culture War two teams and a Map.
I had the same thoughts on the Red State/Blue State recently!
The Gore and Bush contest really kicked off the very beginnings of the 4T IMO. Yes, 9/11 was still 3T, but both the election and then 9/11 were cusp.
It was during this time that the 4T Red State and Blue State "teams" really crystallized. On the one hand, Suburban and Urban professionals decided en masse that no good person could be a Republican, and every good person was a Democrat. On the other, Republicans started to see their culture as entirely separate from the Coastal states.
Then 2008 happened, Obama was elected, and the 4T really took over IMO. By 2008 the cusp was over and it was full blown 4T.
Amongst the 4T responses since 2008:
Cannabis is now seen as legal and normal, whereas in the 3T everybody treaded water and said legalization would never happen
Gay marriage became commonplace and completely normal, whereas in the 3T Democrats demonized
Occupy Wall Street took over Zucotti Square for months on end, whereas in the 3T WTO battles there was no real sympathy for protesters
The Tea Party was formed and unhinged lunatics had a common banner to fight under, whereas in the 3T politicians rushed to the center
Opiate abuse spiraled to heretofore unseen levels in white communities in the Red States, whereas before, these issues were relegated to poor black communities
Obama created a form of national healthcare, whereas Hillary said it would never happen
The rise of Bernie Sanders was clearly 4T
As was the repudiation of Hillary Clinton
Trump inexplicably won the election in 2016
As I've thought about it recently, the regeneracy happened right in front of our noses: the rise of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are very clearly the regeneracy. This regeneracy has two different poles.
Now, with Sars 2 and the riots and the protests, this is the final crisis.
I expect this 4T to end in about 2025, after the financial crisis has ravaged the world the United States will have a green new deal of sorts and a new social safety net.