06-09-2020, 01:26 PM
(06-08-2020, 11:10 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:(06-08-2020, 01:22 PM)User3451 Wrote:(06-08-2020, 08:02 AM)LPDec63 Wrote: I think that the actual battle lines of this "Cold Civil War" 4T were set in the botched election in Florida in the year 2000. The fact that there was no clear winner on Election Night, and that it actually went to the SC to determine a winner were very jolting at the time. The Shock of that election was largely forgotten because Team Blue accepted the result even if we were not happy about it. And of course because 9/11 happened less then a year later.
But, that was the night that "blue state" and "red state" became widely understood terms. Because those were the colors that the networks used that night on their Electoral College maps. I believe that before that night Blue was incumbent party in the WH, and Red meant challenging party. It was that disrupted election night that set the tone for the cascade that has followed. That being said, the fact that the Blue States accepted it without too much protest shows that it was a 3rd turning event. But it gave the Culture War two teams and a Map.
I had the same thoughts on the Red State/Blue State recently!
The Gore and Bush contest really kicked off the very beginnings of the 4T IMO. Yes, 9/11 was still 3T, but both the election and then 9/11 were cusp.
It was during this time that the 4T Red State and Blue State "teams" really crystallized. On the one hand, Suburban and Urban professionals decided en masse that no good person could be a Republican, and every good person was a Democrat. On the other, Republicans started to see their culture as entirely separate from the Coastal states.
Then 2008 happened, Obama was elected, and the 4T really took over IMO. By 2008 the cusp was over and it was full blown 4T.
Amongst the 4T responses since 2008:
Cannabis is now seen as legal and normal, whereas in the 3T everybody treaded water and said legalization would never happen
Gay marriage became commonplace and completely normal, whereas in the 3T Democrats demonized
Occupy Wall Street took over Zucotti Square for months on end, whereas in the 3T WTO battles there was no real sympathy for protesters
The Tea Party was formed and unhinged lunatics had a common banner to fight under, whereas in the 3T politicians rushed to the center
Opiate abuse spiraled to heretofore unseen levels in white communities in the Red States, whereas before, these issues were relegated to poor black communities
Obama created a form of national healthcare, whereas Hillary said it would never happen
The rise of Bernie Sanders was clearly 4T
As was the repudiation of Hillary Clinton
Trump inexplicably won the election in 2016
As I've thought about it recently, the regeneracy happened right in front of our noses: the rise of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are very clearly the regeneracy. This regeneracy has two different poles.
Now, with Sars 2 and the riots and the protests, this is the final crisis.
I expect this 4T to end in about 2025, after the financial crisis has ravaged the world the United States will have a green new deal of sorts and a new social safety net.
Very good summaries from LPDec63 and User3451.
I would just make this correction. Hillary Rodham Clinton may have been an inadequate candidate, but she is treated very unfairly in many ways by the left and the right. She was the original sponsor of healthcare reform in 1993, and she advocated it in her 2008 campaign, and pushed Obama to the left on it. She advocated the mandate and Obama did not, but Obama adopted it.
Bernie Sanders is clearly the rise of a new regeneracy, and he brings back a populist progressive movement that has pushed the Democratic Party somewhat more leftward than Hillary's candidacy took it.
The 4T may end in 2025, but I see that as an era that will be similar to Pearl Harbor, D-Day, or Ft. Sumpter. It will be a decisive year, but I agree with Mr. Howe that the 4T will end sometime between 2028 and 2030. The entire 2020s will be a decade of crisis and change. The saeculum is actually a bit longer than 84 years, and it is slowing down to a regular speed after the events of World War Two (Battle of the Bulge ended it sooner) and the JFK assassination (speeded up the Awakening era's arrival) made the cycle go faster and those turnings end too soon.
I don't know that Hillary being treated fairly on unfairly has anything to do with it.
Hillary was a 3T candidate in a 4T election. In fact, she was a 3T candidate in a 4T election back in 2008.
Most of Hillary's support came from older Democrats, Boomers went crazy for her while Millenials did not like her at all.
Hillary was a general in the culture wars. She went to battle with the Republicans, losing some battles and winning others.
Bernie is clearly one of the archetypes for a Grey Champion, as S&H envinisioned. I think Trump fits the bill too. I'm sure there are others. Hillary is the right age to be a Grey Champion, but she did/does not champion the causes of the 4T.
My understanding is that Obama ran on a 4T platform, and beat out Clinton who ran on a 3T platform. Obama may have promised 4T values, but governed as a 3T president. In 2015-2016, Clinton tried to go back to the same 3T well and folks weren't having any of it. I don't think it's because she was judged unfairly (she may have been) but it was because she was running on 3T values.