06-14-2020, 06:54 PM
(06-06-2020, 12:21 PM)Isoko Wrote: Ghost,
Personally I don't think the 3T started in 1980. I think the 3T started in 2001. The reason for this is that by Western standards, life from 1950 - 2001 was one of the greatest periods to be alive in. Up until 2001 I would argue that in essence people's lives were actually improving. It feels entirely more like one big 2T if I'm honest.
After 2001 things just kept on slowly getting worse for the West. I remember quite well how each year, the West started to become even more worse off. Yet the "Crisis" never came. Not until 2020.
It goes against Strauss and Howe but must we all be dogmatic about this and accept it as the literal truth? Can deviations not at all be possible?
I agree with you about the 2008 4T start being questionable. But a 2001 data for the 3T start is off the wall. The 2T is an Awakening, a period of cultural instability, usually accompanied by sociopolitical instability:
![[Image: SPI%20plot.gif]](https://mikebert.neocities.org/SPI%20plot.gif)
It is clear that this period of instability was over long before 2001.
3T is an unraveling. It starts when the outer world beings to degrade. This usually means the power of the state starts to decline. The states power comes from to things, a flourishing economy, as measure of productivity and the fraction of the GDP the state can access, whiich may be measures by the ration of state revenue to GDP.
According to this paper, economic productivity began to decline to pre-4T levels around 1990 see Figure 2 in this link. I fit a polynomial to the Revenue/GDP data to obtain a truing point for when this quantity peaked. It was the mid-1980's. So I would put the start of the 3T somewhere between 1986-1993, Based on a Boomer gen born 1946-64, I would put the 1T/2Y break in 1968.
So I would date the current saeculum as:
1t 1946-1968 - 24 yrs
2t 1968-1992 - 24 yrs
3. 1992-2014 - 22 yrs
4. 2014-????