06-15-2020, 04:53 AM
(This post was last modified: 06-15-2020, 04:57 AM by Eric the Green.)
(06-14-2020, 06:33 PM)Mikebert Wrote:(06-06-2020, 12:18 PM)Ghost Wrote:(06-06-2020, 12:14 PM)Isoko Wrote: Ghost,
These feel more like 3T events. They occurred, they offered minimal change in terms of people's lives and disappeared as quickly as they came. I'm talking about big changes here that lead to a big climax and quite frankly 2008 onwards feels like one big 3T.
But wouldn't that be a huge 3T (1980-2020)?
That would create a 91-year saeculum instead of the usual 80-88 year saeculua proposed by Strauss and Howe.
The average length of the saeculum is 92 years.
You are ignoring the 15 turnings before 1773 (average saeculum length 104 years) and focusing entirely on the 12 turnings after 1773 (average length 78 years).
The Revolution period changed society and speeded up the saeculum. It was a different world after the Revolution (industrial, political, romantic)
The earlier saecula lasted longer because change was slow. The saeculum is a cycle; it is a hurricane. More water, warmer water, more energy = faster spin. Society suddenly got a whole lot bigger, with a lot more people no longer doing just what their fathers did, and a lot more people involved in politics and society. Generation gaps got bigger, therefore. Much higher population, and more freedom. Progress speeded up.
I think the saeculum has slowed down a bit recently. The 3T went on for 24 years. That was probably because the preceding turnings started too quickly because of events. Hitler invaded Western Europe for one last throw in the Battle of the Bulge. But the bulge collapsed, and after that Hitler had nothing left. Then the A-bomb destroyed the Japanese empire. World War II ended too quickly and so the 4T ended too soon. Then the JFK assassinated ended the 1T too soon as well. But the cycle remains the cycle, because the average lifetime length has not changed all that much, apart from less infant mortality. The 84-year length is pretty much baked-in.
But it could also be that progress has slowed. We may be reaching some kind of equilibrium. Revolution is more rare, and less drastic. Violence and war are decreasing overall. And people are living longer, which slows down the transition to new leadership, and the turnings are starting to drag on because of this. I've mentioned all this before.