I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008

[Bob Butler 54]

(06-15-2020, 04:53 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: But it could also be that progress has slowed. We may be reaching some kind of equilibrium. Revolution is more rare, and less drastic. Violence and war are decreasing overall. And people are living longer, which slows down the transition to new leadership, and the turnings are starting to drag on because of this. I've mentioned all this before.

The revolution period was near the cusp of an age boundary. The printing press, gunpowder, steam engine and democracy altered the basic patterns of how human cultures worked. Many of the crises we have had since then are adjustments, moving into the new age.

But we switched ages again before many cultures adapted fully into the Industrial Age pattern. Already nukes, computer networks, and renewable energy is causing another transition.

So I would differ on our slowing down. Yes, democracy has replaced war as to how changes are made. Yes, machine guns, nukes and insurrections have made war less cost effective than in the past, making crisis war triggers more rare. Sensible leaders avoid conflict.

But slow down? Not if you judge by age boundaries. Each pattern of civilization lasts less long.