06-16-2020, 03:42 PM
(06-15-2020, 07:08 AM)Mikebert Wrote:(06-15-2020, 04:53 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: The Revolution period changed society and speeded up the saeculum. It was a different world after the Revolution (industrial, political, romantic)
The earlier saecula lasted longer because change was slow. The saeculum is a cycle; it is a hurricane. More water, warmer water, more energy = faster spin. Society suddenly got a whole lot bigger, with a lot more people no longer doing just what their fathers did, and a lot more people involved in politics and society. Generation gaps got bigger, therefore. Much higher population, and more freedom. Progress speeded up.
I think the saeculum has slowed down a bit recently. The 3T went on for 24 years. That was probably because the preceding turnings started too quickly because of events. Hitler invaded Western Europe for one last throw in the Battle of the Bulge. But the bulge collapsed, and after that Hitler had nothing left. Then the A-bomb destroyed the Japanese empire. World War II ended too quickly and so the 4T ended too soon. Then the JFK assassinated ended the 1T too soon as well. But the cycle remains the cycle, because the average lifetime length has not changed all that much, apart from less infant mortality. The 84-year length is pretty much baked-in.
But it could also be that progress has slowed. We may be reaching some kind of equilibrium. Revolution is more rare, and less drastic. Violence and war are decreasing overall. And people are living longer, which slows down the transition to new leadership, and the turnings are starting to drag on because of this. I've mentioned all this before.
This is more of an ad-hoc rationalization of apparent changes in saeculum length, rather than an explanation. I agree with you that turning length shortened after the Revolution, and then lengthened somewhat more recently. I have an explanation for the recent lengthening (political actors are older today than in the past, stretching out the saeculum) but not for why the length should have changed in the late 18th century (it can't be the Revolution per se, because turnings in Europe also shortened).
Uh, I think the Revolution was mostly European.....