(06-15-2020, 12:23 PM)David Horn Wrote:(06-14-2020, 06:33 PM)Mikebert Wrote:(06-06-2020, 12:18 PM)Ghost Wrote:(06-06-2020, 12:14 PM)Isoko Wrote: Ghost,
These feel more like 3T events. They occurred, they offered minimal change in terms of people's lives and disappeared as quickly as they came. I'm talking about big changes here that lead to a big climax and quite frankly 2008 onwards feels like one big 3T.
But wouldn't that be a huge 3T (1980-2020)?
That would create a 91-year saeculum instead of the usual 80-88 year saeculua proposed by Strauss and Howe.
The average length of the saeculum is 92 years.
You are ignoring the 15 turnings before 1773 (average saeculum length 104 years) and focusing entirely on the 12 turnings after 1773 (average length 78 years).
There's also the issue of the first major culture delta in the history of civilized man, when the Industrial Age emerged after 12 millennia of the Agricultural Age. It's simply too important to ignore, and the post-AgAge is too brief a period (roughly three saecula) to be significant in any statistical sense. So we're at a bit of a disadvantage from that perspective. On the other hand, we're free to assume that the two are tightly linked or not. I'm certainly in the loose-link camp. It seems you're in the former. Since no one alive today will be around to see how this plays-out in the next 4 or 5 saecula, we should all be a bit more circumspect about dating turnings, until it's a bit more obvious. That said, your offered dates:are still possible. But why 2014?
- 1t 1946-1968 - 24 yrs
- 2t 1968-1992 - 24 yrs
- 3t 1992-2014 - 22 yrs
- 4t 2014-????
It's just a place holder. The other dates serve to stretch out the turnings to accommodate what is looking like a longer saeculum than what I anticipated in 2000.
What makes me question 4T start dates of 2008 or 2001 is the lack of structural change to our nation at this point. We are still the same basic country we were in 1984. Only one of the previous six 4Ts was as anodyne as this one, the Armada 4T.
In 20 years at T4T in is various guises, I have never seen people draw comparisons between this 4T and the Armada 4T or discuss the latter at all for that matter. It's so forgettable of a secular crisis. So much so as I am not sure it was a crisis at all. It seems over shadowed by the mid-Tudor crisis before it and the English Civil War after it.