06-24-2020, 04:55 PM
(06-22-2020, 05:04 PM)of the Revolutionary TnT Wrote:(06-21-2020, 04:26 PM)David Horn Wrote:(06-21-2020, 01:41 PM)Mikebert Wrote:(06-19-2020, 08:43 AM)David Horn Wrote:(06-18-2020, 01:55 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I agree. But it makes a huge difference whether this early in the 4T (meaning there is still time for change to occur) or we are late in the 4T in which the "change" was a collective decision to NOT change and go gently into that good night as a nation.
I don't see any reason the pace of change needs to be tied to a schedule of any kind. The arrival of an anticipated though unpredictable pandemic is a case in point. By it's very nature, it sets the pace, but could just as easily have arrived 10 years ago or 10 years from now. The same could have been true of a climate catastrophe, but wasn't this time. The other crises are certainly human caused, but the economic stressors are tied to the pandemic, so even there the pace is set by nature.
Until this confluence occurred, I was expecting a do-nothing 4T. I'm not expecting that now. As far as when the beginning trigger can be set, that's still arguable. I think we all agree that, barring the election of Barack Obama, a Donald Trump Presidency was a fantasy. Is that a legitimate argument for 2008? Perhaps. It will be a while before this all settles out, and how that happens will be the most instructive on how and why it started. We can collectively choose chaos or a new order, but that choice is still in the future.
I don't see why the pandemic would be any more of a call to action than the financial crisis. The latter was the smaller event, but the response by elites to secure their own position was slower. This time they were right on the ball and have pretty much insulated themselves from the outcome, so far.
Maybe its just the acceleration that happens as opposing sides struggle to secure everything they can. Then again, the virus did change a lot of minds, and seems to be doing more as times goes on. We're already one of the most pathetic nations, even the blind are slowly beginning to see. Which is why I seriously doubt that Trump can triumph again -- especially following his 2016 game plan. It's spent. That in no way dictates a governing success by Democrats. They seem incapable of knowing how to win and capitalize on it when they do. If they win dramatically and it all turns into a pissing contest, it may be over for the saeculum.
In any case, both parties need better versions of themselves, or a hard push to the sidelines if that's what it takes.
Just as a place to start, if I put my stake in the ground and say that this "twenty year" crisis ends sometime around 2025, we have a LOT of time left for unimaginable difficulty.
Listening to both sides of the partisan divide, and their inabilities to compromise, being a skeptic, I wouldn't be surprised to see regional civil wars break out. If that happens and if history "rhymes," we might see our current military divide like it did in 1860 along partisan sides. These pot-bellied, lunatic "militias" like we have in New Mexico actually think they have some sort of ability to "save the constitution" and other fantasies. They are already in the streets, armed with small arms. As soon as they start shooting in earnest, we will then find out where the "sides" come down.
I don't buy the idea that a really serious crisis can be resolved in 5 years. I don't buy S&H's Civil War dating. Unlike many T4Ters I believe the crisis began in 1860 as S&H have it, but it continued to 1877, including the passage of the 13th through 15th Amendments, Reconstruction, and the 1875 Civil Rights bill. I believe the rise of labor strife during the gilded age is part of the 4T and so the massive spike in violence in 1877 needs to be included. Also, it aligns with the end of Reconstruction.
Also, the Plague crisis (1352-81) lasted for multiple decades after the initial political response to the plague over 1349-51 that served as the trigger.
Finally, the "main event" of the Revolutionary and Glorious 4Ts ended 13 and 12 years before the end of the 4T, respectively.
So even if 2020 begins the "main event" of this 4T, we still have a lot longer that five years to go. I note Howe is looking at 2030 for the end.