I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008

[David Horn]

(06-29-2020, 01:27 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(06-29-2020, 11:42 AM)David Horn Wrote: Like Mike, I use those terms interchangeably.  In any case, this is a perfect example of the use of perception management.  After the Uber Bankers and Czars of Wall Street managed to drive the economy into the ground, they got what they needed to rebound, then sold the public on the idea that the debt was too high and it was time to do less.  They've done the same this time.  So far, the economy seems not adequately important to trigger outrage.  That doesn't bode well for that problem being addressed in more than a perfunctory manner during this 4T.  Unfortunately, the other issues arise from the maldistribution of wealth, so they may be papered over as well.  If so, we may be back to viewing a failed 4T.  On the other hand, doing less for the average person this time may lead to catastrophic failure of the economy, with far to little money chasing goods and services.  

We'll have to see whether the Dems can actually deliver for a change.

I believe there is a big difference between the two sort of events.  One illustrates that there are major flaws in the existing system.  The other results in a commitment to switch to the new values, a regeneracy and the crisis core.  By no means did we switch firmly to the new values in 2008.  Most of what Obama did was undone with the approval of his base by Trump.  Was it significant?  Yes.  Did it make a transition to the new values inevitable?  No.

Like Mike, you assume that progress must be at least approximately linear.  There can be progress in retrenchment too.  Take the Affordable Care Act.  It was hated by most until it came under fire by the Trumpists.  At best, it's a lukewarm solution to a blazing hot problem, but one that was intractable for decades. Now, it's accepted that some intervention in the insurance market is a must. So place the marker.  Was the act of creation the greater or lesser contributor to progress?

Then set the marker. Here I agree with Mike: nothing happens immediately. It's hard to organize a true change of any kind, and the greater the change, the more complex the organizational challenge.  I put the initiating date in immediate proximity to the financial collapse in '08. That the war went silent for a while doesn't change that.  It also fails to predict success or failure.