(07-21-2020, 09:31 PM)Marc Lamb Wrote: We now be 4t, officially ... finally!Yep, but I would submit it has only begun recently, and so not in line with generations as currently constituted.
Also I have always been of the opinion that the 4T involves a struggle between opposing elite factions with the winner of that struggle then engaging in the post-regeneracy correction of problems.
However this resolution has come in the form of "political revolution" (in the form of periodic critical elections) more often a "hot" war. Besides the revolution of 1776, we had "Revolution of 1800", election of 1828, 1860 (this one did lead to a civil war), 1896, 1932, and the "Reagan Revolution" in 1980.
But this supposed 4T that should have happened over the last two decades hasn't gelled. It's not like the opportunity did not arise. We have had critical election candidates in 2000, 2008, 2016, and now, likley, 2020. And they keep going belly up. We have have plenty of events of similar magnitude to past 4T catalysts: 911, Panic of 2008, and now the worst pandemic in a century, all packed into a single turning-length period, that even matches up with the generational forecast, but no 4T. According to S&H turnings are caused by generational constellations. So when the first such constellation arrived after they published their theory, it did not cause a turning change, we remained in a 3T-type period.
That is as close to an experimental test as it gets in this business and it came up negative.