I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008

[David Horn]

(08-03-2020, 08:12 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I think something is going on.  Certain things in S&H resonated more than others, though.  I like that cultures tended to be traumatized by crisis wars, and would not tend to start another while the previous was in living memory.  I was not enthralled by some of the more esoteric childrearing aspects, and let those pass by not commented on by me.  I also saw it as a loose theory, where exceptions ought to be expected, and exact clockwork not...

Suddenly, in an age when crisis triggers were supposed to be rare to non existent, we had a crisis trigger.

Or two triggers.  We seem to be dealing with two issues at once, the other being violent police racism leading to Black Lives Matter.  Now, this one is much more an Information Age thing.  You have protest, non violence, and solution through legislation.  You have progressives seeing a flaw in the culture that ought to go away now, and conservatives thinking it is not a flaw but a feature.  This belongs in an awakening, not a crisis.  It is awakenings which transform the culture during the Information Age, not crises.  (So declares the old prophet.)

So….  I am confused.  The Industrial Age pattern seems to be going on by inertia.  We have our crisis trigger after all.  But the Information Age pattern seems to be looking to emerge.  We have versions of both patterns attempting to emerge at the same time.

Did S&H foresee all this?  Nope.  Did they invent a language which is very useful to describe what is going on?  That much credit they deserve.  Do I bow and worship every letter of The Theory?  Well, no.  Will I attack variations on The Theory which exaggerate or predict violence in the modern period?  Yep.

Anyway, that’s where I am at.  Confused.

A good summary of my position as well, though we do differ a tad here and there.  I do subscribe to the idea that history impacts generations and the reverse, so I accept that part of the theory as a valid concept if less valuable as a prediction tool.  I also find it compelling that we humans seem driven to create crises as a recurring feature of our stewardship of the planet.  Beyond that, my flexibility is nearly total.