08-04-2020, 12:05 AM
(This post was last modified: 08-04-2020, 12:07 AM by Eric the Green.)
(08-03-2020, 09:07 PM)RadianMay Wrote:(08-03-2020, 05:19 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote:
- What attracted you to S&H theory in the first place?
- What doubts do you have about the theory, with respect to either process or its conclusions?
- What would it take to disabuse you of the theory completely (i.e., the dealbreaker)?
1. I was intrigued by S&H’s theory because of how ambitious it was in trying to explain the generational archetypes, and having studied personality archetypes previously, there seemed to be some overlap between the two. I also wanted a tool to see where we were headed in the future. I was always a fan of using the past to try and get a glimpse of the future. I felt that learning this theory would organise some of my thoughts and perhaps give me new insight.
2. Doubts would be whether this theory is standing the test of time right now. I had already made clear that at least for me, my empirical observations don’t seem to match up with the timing in the theory. I don’t really have issues with the fundamental theory at the moment, but some of the inter-archetype relationships seem a bit shaky.
3. A dealbreaker would be if it becomes clear the generations aren’t the main cause of turnings, or there is a significant flaw in the Prophet-Nomad-Hero-Artist dynamics that invalidates the theory. I believe if our empirical evidence does not match up with the theory (if the timing is very very wrong, or the generations no longer come in sequence) some part of it will be invalidated; the whole theory will probably need major reconsideration or be totally replaced at that time.
Please do remember that there is a double rhythm theory advanced here long ago, and that this links our turning with the civil war era. The authors went so far as to eliminate a generation, and called it an anomaly. It stands to reason that actually, it is an anomaly built into the cycle itself, because it is repeating on cue. The 2010s thus seems like a phony 3T, just like the 1850s did so much that they actually made it one. But the length of the cycle was the same. The short way to say it, we be 1850s redux. Stalemate, division, poor leadership, disease, new technology, fear of immigrants, and more; it's all there. Cycle repeating right on schedule. Civil war possibly ahead. Maybe if we have advanced into a higher age, a smaller one. But one side, the progressive side, will win. At least well enough to keep the republic going.
People may ignore much of what I say about these things, but if they do, they miss what's going on.