I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008

[TeacherinExile]

(08-03-2020, 09:07 PM)RadianMay Wrote:

(08-03-2020, 05:19 PM)TeacherinExile Wrote:

1. What attracted you to S&H theory in the first place?
   
2. What doubts do you have about the theory, with respect to either process or its conclusions?
   
3. What would it take to disabuse you of the theory completely (i.e., the dealbreaker)?
   

1. I was intrigued by S&H’s theory because of how ambitious it was in trying to explain the generational archetypes, and having studied personality archetypes previously, there seemed to be some overlap between the two. I also wanted a tool to see where we were headed in the future. I was always a fan of using the past to try and get a glimpse of the future. I felt that learning this theory would organise some of my thoughts and perhaps give me new insight.

2. Doubts would be whether this theory is standing the test of time right now. I had already made clear that at least for me, my empirical observations don’t seem to match up with the timing in the theory. I don’t really have issues with the fundamental theory at the moment, but some of the inter-archetype relationships seem a bit shaky.

3. A dealbreaker would be if it becomes clear the generations aren’t the main cause of turnings, or there is a significant flaw in the Prophet-Nomad-Hero-Artist dynamics that invalidates the theory. I believe if our empirical evidence does not match up with the theory (if the timing is very very wrong, or the generations no longer come in sequence) some part of it will be invalidated; the whole theory will probably need major reconsideration or be totally replaced at that time.

1. I read about the theory in a 2004 news article, and with the “prophesied” date of 2005 being only a year away, I bought it right away. I was most intrigued with its novel (generational) approach to cycles of history, and liked its distinctly apolitical tack, burned out and turned off as I was by then with all of the “Crossfire” partisanship on cable TV.  In the run up to the 2004 presidential contest between Bush II and Kerry, I actually caught the famous episode of that show where Jon Stewart spared no quarter in taking down both Paul Begala and Tucker Carlson, telling them that their political bickering was hurting the country. (Amen!) I was so impressed with The Fourth Turning that it’s the only time I have bought copies of any book for my two Millennial sons, saying, “Here, you have to read this.” And that’s coming from a father who still takes great pains not to exert undue influence on his sons’ religious beliefs, political views, even their taste in pop culture.
   
2. I actually have had several doubts about S&H theory—some from the outset of reading it, others as subsequent events have unfolded. One is the anomaly of the Civil War saeculum, which the authors conceded. To my way of thinking, once you have “exceptions to the rule,” you’re flirting with undermining the rule itself.  But I thought of evolutionary theory, for example, where some evidentiary gaps still exist, but not so much as to invalidate the theory as a whole, at least not in my mind.  But I digress... Also, on its face THT theory is Anglo-American centric and, ever since the Revolutionary saeculum, America-centric. In a (still?) globalized world does that make sense anymore? Or will COVID-19, given its very nature as a pandemic, align the rest of the world with our generational constellation from this moment forth? Just spitballing here.
   
3. Finally, you and Mikebert have already well-addressed the weak underpinnings of the theory from an empirical standpoint.  I get that, and others on this forum probably do too, I suspect.  As for my dealbreaker...Depending on where you date the beginning of this crisis era—and Howe has committed himself to the financial crisis of 2008, Americans have not reached a consensus that would allow a true regeneracy to take hold. We have a hyperpartisan and dysfunctional Congress dithering while COVID-19 eats away at the economy and the social fabric of the country. Gallup just released a poll showing the depths to which trust in our civic institutions has fallen.  We’re nowhere near a solution.  And when you see the videos of angry confrontations between fellow citizens, the clashes between protestors and law enforcement. And, throw in the record numbers of citizens applying for gun permits...well, with all apologies to Kurt Cobain, it sure “smells like unraveling” to me.  And if that’s the case, and remember that S&H theory dates the Unraveling from the re-election of Ronald Reagan in 1984, we’ve been stuck in that supposedly bygone turning for 36 years now.  That doesn’t comport with the 4T theory at all. But I’m willing to defer final judgment on the theory until after the election, and perhaps even after Neil Howe publishes his next book.