08-08-2020, 09:48 AM
(08-04-2020, 03:23 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(08-03-2020, 04:16 PM)Mikebert Wrote: The Armada doesn't even look like a 4T. Have you ever seen anyone use examples from THAT crisis to illustrate 4T issues. A few of theorists did talk about the Glorious and WotR 4Ts, but I cannot recall anyone comparing anything to the Armada. It's so forgettable of a 4T because it isn't a 4T at all. There were no structural changes made. It was just a war, one of the dozens that happened all the time back then.
Chas and I derived pre-1435 turnings for England going back the mid-9th century. I used generations as one of the structural elements, as well as empirical data and Bob's concept of "spirals of violence" a "spiral" that fizzled out means it was not a social moment turning. One that did not indicates one. I also used Chas's idea of archetypical generations playing roles in history analogous to archetypical characters playing roles in a drama, sort of a riff on "all the world's a stage". Using all these tools I managed to cobble together turnings and running them by Chas for input.
Anyways not all 4T's are equal. Some are obvious, like the Viking crisis. the Norman invasion and the WotR. Others like the 12th century crisis (its not the Anarchy, it simply happened too early) seem stretched, and the 10th and 13th century 4Ts are pretty small beer, like the Armada.
I don't take the extended crises before the beginning of the Industrial Age seriously. Sure, you can find where people are less enthusiastic about crisis wars when lots of folks remember the last one. Also when people can't afford a big war, a little time goes by as the economy recovers. That much is there. However you are often not changing the culture. One bunch of autocrats is fighting another with not much difference between them. Only later did the rural - urban divide form as some people wanted to continue with power based on land ownership while the other favored urban life and building stuff. Things started to get a little more hot.
I understand the sentiment, but then you are throwing out half of the cycles, relying on just three, one of which the authors say was anomalous, leaving little to stand on.