I'm a sceptic that the 4th Turning started in 2008

[Dustinw5220]

(06-18-2021, 03:10 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-18-2021, 02:20 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote:

(06-17-2021, 04:27 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-16-2021, 07:39 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote:

(05-23-2021, 02:51 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I think the anti-slavery movement got going around 1815, although I'm not too clear on that right now. Religious awakenings date back to camp meetings as early as the first 1800 decade, while Joseph Smith's Mormon revelation happened in 1820, 2 years before the S&H date for starting the Awakening. In 1834, a defeat for the anti-slavery movement sent it into retreat, and Dixie got more organized.

Definitely, the early rush of industrialism and railroad speculation in the 1840s is the parallel to the roaring 20s, and to the high tech "dot-com boom" of the late 1990s and early 2000s as well. Your Titanic/Challenger parallel seems a good one, and highlights the hubris of 3Ts. I don't remember the planetary correlates either right now, but what I may have mentioned was the Uranus flyby that was going on simultaneously to the Challenger accident. Your war parallels seem valid to me as well.

Yeah, most of the time I agree with S&H's dates for everything (exact generation end/start dates aside, LOL), but not the Civil War saeculum though, their dates for that one have always sounded suspect to me (for instance, the Transcendentals began to arrive in 1792, a full 30 years before S&H's start date for the Awakening, which really makes no sense at all). What would you say were the singular events that started (or caused) the 2T and 4T mood shifts in 1815 and 1850 respectively, was it just the end(s) of The War of 1812 and the Mexican War (and the Compromise of 1850), or was there more to it than that?

I believe you also said in your book that the 2070s would also be a turbulent decade, so if the 2060s parallels the 1890s/1900s and the 1970s/1980s, what would you say would be a good analogy/parallel to the 2070s? Also, if the 1840s is the parallel to the Roaring 20s in the Civil War saeculum, and the 1990s (and possibly the early 2000s) are the parallel in the Millennial saeculum, would you say the 'roaring decade' you described (in your book) for the 2080s will be the parallel for the next saeculum?

Yes indeed. And the 2070s will definitely be 3T.

I'm not so sure about 1815, except it definitely was the Awakening start in Europe because of the renewal of liberal movements there, so some echo probably happened here, probably the start of the anti-slavery movement. And possibly some spiritualist or romantic trends. 

1850 is pretty clear. The compromise staved off a real danger of civil war breaking out. President Taylor was ready to "march and crush the traitors," but then he died. The end of the Mexican War made the battle to get more free or slave states uppermost. When Abraham Lincoln met "Uncle Tom's Cabin" author Harriet B. Stowe he told her, "so you're the little lady who made this big war". The book came out in 1851-52. It was a big deal. Then came the Kansas-Nebraska Act of 1854, and the battle was on.

What kinds of stuff might break out in the 2070s (I think you said in your book that there might be a second Teddy Roosevelt either in the late 1860s or the 1870s and that disease and guns might still sadly be a problem here in America, but on the brighter side there might be a watershed moment in 2074 comparable to Neil Armstrong landing on the moon in 1969)? What would you say might be a good historical analogy/parallel to that decade (in either the Civil War, Great Power, or Millennium saeculums)?

In your forecast, you said the 2080s would be a calmer (and probably more fun) decade, but still very 3T, correct? At any rate, it certainly sounds like it's gonna parallel the Roaring Twenties a lot, I think you said there might be a second prohibition era (if the double rhythm holds there, I see that working about as well as it did in the 1920s, LOL)? I think you also said the 2080s might actually make the Roaring Twenties look chaste in comparison (both culturally and in terms of loosening social mores)?

Yeah, I think you're right, there was already an anti-slavery movement here in America as early as 1815 (I think there might have even been a few seeds planted before that, but those were likely pre-Awakening early 1960s like events). I know S&H's name for the 1794-1815 1T doesn't work, as the supposed 'Era of Good Feelings' started in 1815 (when the 1T was already all but over and the Awakening was starting).

I'm a little embarrassed to admit this (especially on this forum), but I know next to nothing about President Taylor, what was he like? Was it his death that officially ended the 3T and started the 4T, or was it a little before or after that?

I don't know; you might know more about my book than I do at this point   I am more focused on current events in this 4T right now. But that sounds right for the 2070s, and the best parallel will be the 1900s-1910s. But yes the 2080s will parallel the 1920s in their roar, but the early years will be very idealistic and progressive, quite different from other 3T decades.

Taylor was a victorious general in the Mexican War. The only two presidents elected by Whigs were old generals who didn't live out their terms (the other was W H Harrison in 1840). He was no liberal, but he was very irrascible. He was not given to compromise. I would say the controversy about whether states entering the union conquered in the Mexican War (especially good ol CA, and NM) would be slave or free, leading up to Taylor's threat to start a civil war, was the start of the 4T; the Compromise merely staved it off temporarily.

Fair enough.  You're right though, that WOULD be different from other 3T decades (LOL). After the Cold War ended, I suppose there were some shades of idealism in the 1990s under Clinton (but still, hardly what you would really call call progressive). Is it fair to say Generation Alpha's influence in politics (being the Prophet/Idealist generation that they'll become) will lend the early 2080s it's idealistic and progressive reputation? Plus, since people are living longer now, I'm sure at least some of us Millennials will still be around as well (Mr. Brower has brought up before that older generations living longer might help to stave off the worst aspects/trends of any turning, this could be just such an example).

Yeah, that all makes sense. So Taylor was a Whig I take it (if he was, he was DEFINITELY bad news then)?