How different is Western Europe's saecular timeline?

[Eric the Green]

(12-21-2016, 04:49 PM)Mikebert Wrote: Something is stretching out the saeculum, we had a 24 year 3T and it looks like the 4T may be long as well. This suggests that generations are not the primary driver of these cycles either.

Ha ha, I have told you what is stretching out the cycle. The primary fact is that the first two turnings were a bit shorter than normal; especially the first, which was cut off by the JFK assassination. Even so, the first 2 years of the 2T were still like a 1T in many ways. Plus, the previous 4T was also short; cut off by Hitler's battle of the bulge gamble, which shortened the war; along with the atom bomb.

But the cycle does not normally speed up. That only happened once, from 100 or so to 80+ years, as we entered modern revolutionary times, and this brought about such anomaly as there is. The 82-84 years cycle is just being what it is. There are fluctuations and events that affect the timing of specific turning shifts. But the peak of crisis comes right on schedule, and that means the mid to late 2020s. And the 4T will be the length of a typical turning, having started in 2008. Count on it.

Quote:Recently I have become familiar with Turchin’s secular cycle.  This one is the best documented of all the cycles I have seen and it comes with detailed mechanisms and can even be modeled with some success. Like the K-cycle it has empirical markers that tell you where you are so I can measure the cycle length. It’s about 100 years.  We are also in a crisis phase of that cycle. Last cycle the crisis phase ran from 1907-1929.  This was followed by the depression phase (which serves the function the 4T does in S&H) which ran over 1929-1941.  The crisis phase of this cycle began in 2006 and if the 100 year timing holds, the resolution of this cycle (that is the 4T-like part) will happen in the 2030’s.  The key measure of this cycle is inequality and that is the thing that is resolved. When it is resolved the cycle ends and a new one begins.  Here’s the deal, inequality is the fact that wages haven’t risen and the middle class and is crumbling. Trump is directly caused by inequality.  Stock market bubbles and the 2008 also caused by inequality.  The inequality problem has in the past been solved by civil war, revolution, invasion and economic collapse.  In other words it is solved by period that performs the function of a 4T. It is not generationally driven and so technically is not a 4T.  Based on pure secular cycle timing this “4T-like period” will happen in the 2030’s, one hundred years after the last time.
Turchin also has a second shorter cycle he calls fathers and sons cycles that he doesn’t talk much about. This cycle is explicitly generation.  I was toying with the idea that this cycle is the saeculum and that the actual cycle timing is determined by the interaction between the two cycles.

The Uranus-Pluto connection I showed you clears up the Turchin cycle and any questions about it.

It seems to me clear that inequality was highest just before the crashes of 1929 and 2008; that's 79 years, which is close enough to the usual saeculum length. Yes, it was the saeculum at work, not Turchin. And as before, real inequality did not start to decline fast until the 1940s, well into the 4T. The same thing could happen in the 2020s, one saeculum later.

There's no question that the greatest crises in American history have been the 4Ts, from Jamestown the original one, to today, and that they happen regularly on 80+ year cycles.

Quote:For example the period around 1920 was filled with violence that was caused by inequality, according the secular cycle theory.  So why didn’t the inequality get resolved then?  Turchin claims it was resolved by immigration restriction in 1924. He downplays the New Deal, putting it in the next cycle.  I think the the 4T then was key to the inequality turnaround. In fact I believe that to end a secular you need a 4T-type period.  The concept I am working with now is that a S&H 4T is simply a period when psi is high (as it is now and was in 1920) and we have the right generational constellation (like we do now but did not in 1920).  Thus, this secular cycle should end early because it does not have to wait for the 4T to come along for the inequality problem to be solved (which is why it didn’t get solved around 1920). 

But 1920 was the middle of a 3T, when inequality is highest. The "violence" such as it was, was irrelevant. There's no reason for this 4T to end early; we're not even at the 80-year repeat of the crisis climax yet. We're 10 years away from it.

Quote:What this means is when we head into recession and inequality puts in a short-term peak, events will happen so that inequality continues to decline and it becomes a long term peak. This would be caused by a set of policies that will be put into place in year X.  X will then be the end of the secular cycle AND close to the end of the 4T.  Once the solution is in place, implementing it will produce results that will create consensus on this is the way to go and we will be 1T.  I can think of a number of scenarios where this can happen in just a few years and we could well see real action taken around 2020, right where S&H forecasted it 30 years ago; inequality starts to come down and it becomes crystal clear that we now are in a 1T.  If X falls, say in 2021, then I suppose we will draw the 4T as 2001-2021 (with the 20-20 vision that comes from hindsight). If it is 2024, we might stick with 2008 as a 4T start as this will give a 16-year 4T or maybe we choose 2005, S&H’s original forecast.

There is zero chance for any resolution of inequality to begin while Trump/Pence are in office. The 2016 election has cemented any solution as occurring when I and S&H predicted it would occur, in the 2020s, and not in the year 2020 per se. I hope the election of 2020 will make a solution possible, but this might even have to wait until the elections of 2022 and 2024. If you think you are disappointed now, and say a 4T solution didn't happen, just wait until Trump is re-elected! You'll be really disappointed THEN, and YET, the 4T will STILL be far from over!!!

Quote:If on the other hand nothing happens and we continue to see rising inequality all through the 2020’s then this wipes out that idea.  We can still date the 4T later, stretching out the saeculum, just like the K-cycle is stretched out, but the saeculum won’t be mechanistically responsible for events. The secular cycle will be in the driver’s seat.
If generations really matter, then this shift has to happen earlier rather than later.

If the solution to inequality is not in place after the 2020s, then yes, we will have at least a failed 4T, and perhaps a failed theory, if that's what you conclude. But if generations really matter, then the Gilded were civics, the anomaly is less anomalous, we're in the 1850s redux, and the shift will happen later during the 4T rather than sooner. The 2020s will be the 1860s redux, and also the late 1770s/early 1780s redux. And to some extent, the 1960s redux.