How different is Western Europe's saecular timeline?

[David Horn]

(12-21-2016, 04:49 PM)Mikebert Wrote: What this means is when we head into recession and inequality puts in a short-term peak, events will happen so that inequality continues to decline and it becomes a long term peak. This would be caused by a set of policies that will be put into place in year X.  X will then be the end of the secular cycle AND close to the end of the 4T.  Once the solution is in place, implementing it will produce results that will create consensus on this is the way to go and we will be 1T.  I can think of a number of scenarios where this can happen in just a few years and we could well see real action taken around 2020, right where S&H forecasted it 30 years ago; inequality starts to come down and it becomes crystal clear that we now are in a 1T.  If X falls, say in 2021, then I suppose we will draw the 4T as 2001-2021 (with the 20-20 vision that comes from hindsight). If it is 2024, we might stick with 2008 as a 4T start as this will give a 16-year 4T or maybe we choose 2005, S&H’s original forecast.

If on the other hand nothing happens and we continue to see rising inequality all through the 2020’s then this wipes out that idea.  We can still date the 4T later, stretching out the saeculum, just like the K-cycle is stretched out, but the saeculum won’t be mechanistically responsible for events. The secular cycle will be in the driver’s seat.
If generations really matter, then this shift has to happen earlier rather than later.

I don't see that any of this argues against a 4T at this time.  Success is not mandatory ... nor is outright failure.  Some contests fight through to a draw, or something similar enough to make the concept of crisis resolution academic at best.  If there is no resolution of the current basket of crises, especially inequality and global warming, then this unresolved tension becomes the fodder for the next 2T.   Look at the 2T during the Great Power Saeculum for a model of what this may entail.

The issues of this 4T are global, and all power centers are opposed to resolving them, each its own way.  The real loss is a champion to begin rallying the opposing forces, but none has emerged with enough gravitas to get results.  During a 2T, practical solutions are not on the agenda, so that's much a problem.