01-19-2018, 09:17 AM
(01-06-2018, 11:32 AM)Kinser79 Wrote:(01-01-2018, 01:42 AM)Craig Wrote: On December 31, 2017, the last Millennials turned 13.
No more Millennials are children. My generation are all teens, twentysomethings and thirtysomethings now!
This would make a 35 year generation if one uses the S&H date of 1982 for the start of the Millies. I personally use 1984 as the cut off date with 1978-1983 being cusp years. That is based on my personal observations. I'm a 1979 co-hort and am strongly nomadic with some civic characteristics. My husband is 1982 and is closer to 50/50 while my sister is 1984 and almost totally civic with some nomad characteristics.
Also my son who was born in 1999 insists he isn't a Millie. I would argue that even on the outside chance that he was the last Millie was born sometime around 31 December 2004 or 2005 (at the latest). My much younger niece and nephew are completely different yet again.
As such I typically break down the turnings with the current 4T starting around 2006.
As such Boomers would remember JFK assination but not VJ Day;
Xers would remember Challenger but not JFK;
Millies would remember Katrina/Crash of '08 but not Challenger;
Zeds would likely not remember the Crash of 08 except for the oldest but would remember the end of the 4T.
(01-01-2018, 02:23 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: We don't know yet when the crisis war will happen, so we don't know yet when the dividing line was between Millennials who will fight in it and postMillenials who will be too young.
I know Xenakis (or whatever his name is) claims there is ALWAYS a crisis war but history does not bear this out. The Glorious Revolution of 1688 was called Glorious because of the lack of bloodshed. That being said a war during a 4T is more likely to occur, and such wars are typically total wars. That being said wars are not limited to 4Ts as the US has been involved in a war of some sort or the other every turning since its founding. Other powerful countries tend to have a similar history. The relative passivity of Europe is a recent phenomenon.
FWIW, I think we are going to see some major differences between the first and second halves of the Millennial generation. I'm also an '82 cohort but I'm very late '82 and strongly identify with the first wave Millennials. Life, and outlook on life, is completely different than a '99 cohort, though. I do think the second half of the generation will turn out to be less liberal politically than the first half, especially the men.
Also, I agree with you re: the crisis war comment. It's possible if not probable that we find ourselves in some type of new armed conflict in the next decade, but the scope of that remains unclear to me. There may eventually be a reckoning with China and/or Russia, for example, or more likely a Cold War-style series of proxy wars. I suspect it won't happen in Trump's first term despite a lot of white knuckle moments.
If he's re-elected, all bets are off.
