Crayons out for Civiqs 50-state polling data (again not to be confused with other polls) for May 2020. Things may have gotten worse for the President since the start of this month.
https://civiqs.com/results/approve_presi...oomIn=true
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;5&AK=2;3;2&AZ=1;11;6&AR=2;6;9&CA=1;55;8&CO=1;9;8&CT=1;7;8&DE=1;3;8&DC=1;3;8&FL=1;29;2&GA=1;16;4&HI=0;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;20;8&IN=2;11;2&IA=1;6;4&KS=2;6;3&KY=2;8;7&LA=2;8;5&MD=1;10;8&MA=1;11;8&MI=1;16;6&MN=1;10;8&MS=2;6;5&MO=2;10;5&MT=2;3;3&NV=1;6;8&NH=1;4;8&NJ=1;14;8&NM=1;5;4&NY=1;29;8&NC=1;15;4&ND=2;3;9&OH=1;18;4&OK=2;7;7&OR=1;7;8&PA=1;20;4&RI=1;4;8&SC=2;9;4&SD=2;3;7&TN=2;11;5&TX=1;38;2&UT=2;6;2&VT=1;3;8&VA=1;13;8&WA=1;12;8&WV=2;5;9&WI=1;10;4&WY=2;3;9&ME=1;2;8&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=2;2;7&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;6)
Approval:
60% or higher for Trump (saturation 9)
55-59 (saturation 7)
51-54 (saturation 5)
exactly 50 (saturation 3)
below 50 but above disapproval
exact ties white -- but none this time
above 45 but lower than disapproval (saturation 2)
43-45 (saturation 4)
40-42 (saturation 6)
under 40 (saturation 8 )
It's a different scale from which you may be accustomed...
I do not have symmetry. I use the 43-45 zone as one in which an incumbent has some chance to win if he begins the electoral season with such support -- with a spirited and competent campaign and no disasters. 40-42? Possible but unlikely. Under 40? It is rare.
46-49 has an above 50% chance of winning, barring calamities. 50%? Overwhelming chance. 51% or higher? High 50's or higher.
https://civiqs.com/results/approve_presi...oomIn=true
Approval:
60% or higher for Trump (saturation 9)
55-59 (saturation 7)
51-54 (saturation 5)
exactly 50 (saturation 3)
below 50 but above disapproval
exact ties white -- but none this time
above 45 but lower than disapproval (saturation 2)
43-45 (saturation 4)
40-42 (saturation 6)
under 40 (saturation 8 )
It's a different scale from which you may be accustomed...
I do not have symmetry. I use the 43-45 zone as one in which an incumbent has some chance to win if he begins the electoral season with such support -- with a spirited and competent campaign and no disasters. 40-42? Possible but unlikely. Under 40? It is rare.
46-49 has an above 50% chance of winning, barring calamities. 50%? Overwhelming chance. 51% or higher? High 50's or higher.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.