Bipartisan Senate group proposes ‘no fly, no buy’ gun measure

[Eric the Green]

(02-13-2018, 02:16 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(02-13-2018, 01:29 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: We are maybe entering the Information Age / a post scarcity culture.  I would not assume that patterns that worked in the Industrial Age will work now.  I am not seeing the spiral of violence that usually proceeds a revolution, civil war or crisis war.  Both Bobc and you may be making a mistake in assuming an immediate violent confrontation.  The cycle has worked less well anyway outside of the Anglo American civilization.  Either of you using crisis theory to assume triumph of your values may well be disappointed.

I'm sure Eric has a different POV, but, for me, I see us moving past the Information Age into something undefined. We seem to be entering a period (the Post-modern Age?) that assumes that information and connectivity are ubiquitous, but one that is creating disconnection between actual humans IRL. I'm poorly configured to fit in well, but Millies and, I assume, Homies will see this as normal. What that means for society is an open question. Add to this, the PTB will soon be able to know almost everything about everyone. Are we still free agents in that environment?

My POV is not too different, except that I think there will be awareness and a correction to the disconnection and the threats to freedom. I expect this will be a main feature of the next 2T, and have written so in my books sometime ago.

Quote:

Bob Butler 54 Wrote:Usually, the crisis leads to the culture shift.   In the 1960s era, the awakening led to a culture shift.  I am sort of expecting that the see saw between the cultures will end in an era that smells more like an awakening than a crisis.  It isn't supposed to be, but I am not seeing the expected spiral of violence domestically, yet some problems (division of wealth, global warming, productivity increase) are building up.  We are stuck calling those using violence lone nuts rather than see them organizing into large culture altering groups.

The culture shift is well under way, but it seems fragmented and unfocused. I have a hard time seeing a 1T emerging if society is tribal rather than more or less unified. I agree with your list of mounting issues, but don't see any indication that they are accepted as such by more than a fraction of the population. That points more toward anarchy than communitarianism, so this may be a failed 4T in the sense of creating a new paradigm.

In our decade and the start of the next, we are seeing 1850s redux. Then too, the violence only spiralled up in the parallel period (late 1850s) that we will enter only in the early 2020s. Do not expect a quick end to this 4T, as some expect. It will run the full course now predicted by Mr. Howe. Crises don't lead to or create culture shifts; they shift institutions, usually in accord with the ideals spawned in the previous Awakening. I expect that to happen in the 2020s. On some identity issues like homosexual rights, this has already happened.

Things may seem not to be going as S&H predict, but that's probably only because they inserted an anomaly that wasn't, and thus confused many to think that our 4T would be only like the 1860s. But since it is actually like the 1850s and 60s, as well as like the 1930s/40s, the peak of the crisis is correctly seen as yet to come (but now fast approaching!). All 4Ts are assumed to be failures while the crisis climax is yet to come; how the crisis climax is handled will determine the success or failure of the 4T, and success will consist, if it happens, only in a victory by the progressive side and the defeat of the regressives like Galen and bobc. "The line it is drawn, the curse it is cast." 4Ts have never been resolved through compromise. You can't cite me one that did. Compromise is how the issue is put off and kicked down the road, not only during 2Ts and 3Ts but well into the 4T too to a large extent.

The 1T in the 1870s and 80s was scarcely unified. The USA was still two nations and two tribes, although militarily it had been unified. The two tribes were more unified in the 1950s, but that's because in the double rhythm, the foreign crisis was more severe than the domestic, and so the nation unified in the face of the foreign foe. In the 1870s and 80s, the nation was only nominally unified, with the defeated side trying to get around the new order with local ways and local laws (e.g. Jim Crow). Perhaps that's what we'll see in the 2030s and 40s too. But this new gilded age will still be recognizably a 1T, because the tribal conflict will be muted and localized.

This may also mean that the tribes will have split, and the two or three remaining nations will have plenty of unity within themselves thanks very much. In any case, the violence will be much less and the wars less severe in the next 1T. Whether the two tribes in what is now the United States are ever unified will depend on when the red tribe (formerly the gray tribe) gradually gives up its ways and adjusts to the progress that is our destiny to unfold. And yes, the blue side DOES know better, regardless of what the best means of persuasion may be that anyone on the red side can ever understand. In the best case scenario, the red side is embraced by the blue, and thus persuaded to adjust to progress. That does seem utopian, although a partial shift is all that a 4T ever brings; not total utopian resolution.