01-15-2020, 06:40 PM
Adults who have any memory of the speculative binge that culminated in the Crash of 2008 will have the generational role of those who remembered the speculative boom culminating in the Crash of 1929. Note well that such a binge was impossible as long as the GI's who still had even childhood memories of cause and effect of the Crash of '29 were able to squelch any speculative boom. The Silent knew from childhood memories the effect, if not the cause; they were more likely to accede to the idea that younger people had that a speculative bubble was a cause of prosperity instead of the ruin that a bubble creates.
The late Friedrich Hayek (1898-1994), with whom I rarely agree gets it right. The bubble is itself the waste and destruction of the capital needed for sustainable growth. A bubble devours capital that might otherwise go into plant and equipment that creates jobs and produces goods. The inevitable panic at the end of the boom is the recognition that the bubble created assets that must be written down or written off -- when people recognize that times really are bad because of misplaced priorities in economic choices.
With respect to the generational cycle, a speculative boom of the worst kind is most likely in the most degenerate time in the generational cycle, when anything goes in the names of easy money and sybaritic excess among 'winners'. Maybe this time we run into an economic complication in the end of scarcity. Much that used to be precious that has not simply gone obsolete (like VHS tapes and best-selling novels of twenty years ago) is now available cheaply in thrift shops.
I remember seeing a sci-fi novel in which the author suggested that in a truly-advanced society, one of the hallmarks of social status would be in not having the clutter of mass-market schlock in one's residence. Antiquarian interest in the form of a coherent collection might be fine, but the souvenir coffee mug that has the word "Paris" with a depiction of the Eiffel Tower replacing the "A" is worthless.
Guess where we are now. We can no longer rely upon making more stuff to make people happier. Much of what we now manufacture first as luxury items has become ordinary, then questionable, then trashy, and now discreditably obsolete or irrelevant. As one of the New Poor who has been around long enough to know how the technological course goes, I recognize that being a late adapter is one of the best ways in which to avoid excessive spending. I now have a smart phone that set me back a full $20 and the cheapest pre-paid service that I can get away with. If I had the money I would not get something more expensive except as necessary for meeting requirements on the job. (I would probably have a landline phone again, too, if my employer required such).
The late Friedrich Hayek (1898-1994), with whom I rarely agree gets it right. The bubble is itself the waste and destruction of the capital needed for sustainable growth. A bubble devours capital that might otherwise go into plant and equipment that creates jobs and produces goods. The inevitable panic at the end of the boom is the recognition that the bubble created assets that must be written down or written off -- when people recognize that times really are bad because of misplaced priorities in economic choices.
With respect to the generational cycle, a speculative boom of the worst kind is most likely in the most degenerate time in the generational cycle, when anything goes in the names of easy money and sybaritic excess among 'winners'. Maybe this time we run into an economic complication in the end of scarcity. Much that used to be precious that has not simply gone obsolete (like VHS tapes and best-selling novels of twenty years ago) is now available cheaply in thrift shops.
I remember seeing a sci-fi novel in which the author suggested that in a truly-advanced society, one of the hallmarks of social status would be in not having the clutter of mass-market schlock in one's residence. Antiquarian interest in the form of a coherent collection might be fine, but the souvenir coffee mug that has the word "Paris" with a depiction of the Eiffel Tower replacing the "A" is worthless.
Guess where we are now. We can no longer rely upon making more stuff to make people happier. Much of what we now manufacture first as luxury items has become ordinary, then questionable, then trashy, and now discreditably obsolete or irrelevant. As one of the New Poor who has been around long enough to know how the technological course goes, I recognize that being a late adapter is one of the best ways in which to avoid excessive spending. I now have a smart phone that set me back a full $20 and the cheapest pre-paid service that I can get away with. If I had the money I would not get something more expensive except as necessary for meeting requirements on the job. (I would probably have a landline phone again, too, if my employer required such).
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.