America is a sick society

[Eric the Green]

(08-09-2017, 02:56 PM)David Horn Wrote:

(08-08-2017, 08:08 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I think S&H developed an interesting language and became aware of an interesting pattern in history.  I don't see it as absolute and firm, especially outside of the Anglo American sequence of history.  Certainly there is much to be said about whether this time and place is really similar to that one.  Even where the pattern doesn't hold firmly the descriptive language might come in handy

I've made a similar argument to Mike Alexander.  History is not locked to an unchanging dynamic, like the weather for example.  That said, there is a rhythm here that can be seen, and the S&H explanation of generations and turnings makes  sense.  That doesn't make it true, but it is a rational explanation.  On the other hand, just as climate changes, so does the underlying social, technical, economic and cultural landscape as progress alters each in significant ways.

Bob Butler 54 Wrote:One of the key memes for me is the notion of the Great Man, Fill In The Blank the Great.  During the agricultural age, the time of a countries' greatest wealth and power was often when one of their strongest leaders established the most complete control.  This created the aura or myth of the great leader who alone could ride herd on a fractious and selfish group of nobles or serfs.  If you keep your mind open, you can come up with examples enough.  If you need help, Cynic Hero is a big fan of the old time 'greats' and how to succeed within the agricultural age memes.

Democracies run on a very opposing theory, that there should be checks and balances, that the government's and the leader's power should be limited, that politics and the economy are only healthy if the elites running things are kept in check, that the interests of the common man are always very much represented.  The majority can out vote the elites, and that's how things ought to be.  The People should win, in a revolution, a civil war, or at the ballot box.

I am not one to throw the word 'demagogue' around lightly, or to claim a great likeness between Bush 43 and Stalin.  It is not clear to me, however, that the struggles that created the Industrial Age are complete and successful.  The middle east is still far more in the agricultural pattern than the industrial.  The clout of traditional religion there is comparable or exceeds the power of democracy.  Human rights can be disregarded by terrorist, militant or religious groups.  People including but not limited to Saddam will use classic government by fear that includes genocide, knocks on the door in the middle of the night, with tribal, religious and political prejudices applied freely.  I see the middle east as still in the early phases of agricultural - industrial age conflict and transition.  While you might learn from history how these transitions tend to go, each takes a different form, and each is ugly and horrible in a different way.

The result is not inevitable and beneficial.  Russia and China did not and are not developing functional multi party democracies.  They will put Fill In The Blank the Great in charge, then have layers of lesser bureaucrats ad-lib some sort of limits to power that further the interests of the lesser bureaucrats.  You can even say the United States is faltering.  Did presidential candidate Trump see himself as the only man great enough to solve the problems we had gotten ourselves in?  Trump the Great?  Is this part of a country flirting with the big man meme rather than checks and balances?

Yes, the transition continues. Perhaps it's wise to separate societies with linear expectations from societies that are bound to absolutes.  The countries firmly under the sway of any religion fall in the second category, and don't really fit the S&H model.  Of the remaining many, some will make "progress" in less than ideal ways, with cycles of retrenchment and advancement interspersed in patterns we don't really understand.  Others have such a long history, that change is hard, at least at the cultural level. 

Come back in 200 years and reevaluate.

Bob Butler 54 Wrote:During the transition to the Industrial Age, the robber barons have often been on the side of progress.  At this point, are they pushing to increase their own influence and profit rather the the country's benefit?  If there isn't an elite group backing the progressive masses, do the progressive masses get anywhere?

It is not clear to me which path the hypothetical post-scarcity / information age might take.  There is a lot more at stake than whether we call certain elites by questionably humorous names.

This is the argument I seem to have with Eric.  He sees only progress and sunny outcomes.  Progress it may be, but the outcome doesn't have to be sunny.  There's also no structural element that forces a true resolution either.  Even a game of chess can end in a stalemate.  So this 4T, and I certainly believe we are in one, will be defined by the historians of the future.  We're just making predictions based on our best guess combined with our personal preferences.

If we fail on climate management, I think we can accurately predict the results.  All the social, economic and even technical issues will work out as they do.

Woah! I don't think I said I am certain about only progress and sunny outcomes. I wasn't that declarative, if you remember my posts. No outcomes are guaranteed, I said. It's just that, so far, the outcome of 4Ts has been generally progressive and positive in the anglo-american saeculum. And that it seems like the planetary signs for the 2020s are promising, and there's some demographic changes that may work out to a progressive advantage. But, no, there's no guarantees, and things don't look too rosey right now. And as I also point out, they never do in the middle of a 4T.

You seem to be much more optimistic than I am about the next saeculum, assuming this one does not bring the needed changes.