11-01-2020, 01:22 PM
The Lichtman Test:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Six keys against the Incumbent's Party give an overwhelming chance of failure.
This time:
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
These five keys favor the incumbent President (although I would interpret any significant challenge to renomination by serious challengers to have a lower threshold for an incumbent than for an incumbent's Party. What isn't serious? A ludicrous extremist such as David Duke or the late Lyn LaRouche or a prospective nominee with a foot in the grave (Harold Stassen a couple of times). If an incumbent who barely won faces a more-than-nominal opponent in the primaries gets a significant number of votes in any state, then such suggests the possibility that significant dissent exists within the Incumbent's Party.
Thus "Democrats for Nixon" in 1972 and "Republican Voters Against Trump" indicate trouble for the Party nominee that endures a schism.
Keys turning against Trump:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Eight turn against him.
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Six keys against the Incumbent's Party give an overwhelming chance of failure.
This time:
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
These five keys favor the incumbent President (although I would interpret any significant challenge to renomination by serious challengers to have a lower threshold for an incumbent than for an incumbent's Party. What isn't serious? A ludicrous extremist such as David Duke or the late Lyn LaRouche or a prospective nominee with a foot in the grave (Harold Stassen a couple of times). If an incumbent who barely won faces a more-than-nominal opponent in the primaries gets a significant number of votes in any state, then such suggests the possibility that significant dissent exists within the Incumbent's Party.
Thus "Democrats for Nixon" in 1972 and "Republican Voters Against Trump" indicate trouble for the Party nominee that endures a schism.
Keys turning against Trump:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Eight turn against him.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.