For those that I have invited from another Forum (Leip's Election Atlas) in case of a breakdown of the other site, I greet you:
Note that the composition of the vote by age matters greatly. People over 55 (and I see no cause to distinguish such people in their voting pattern) are about 5% more R than D in their voting in a normal year. People under 40 are about 20% more D than R in their voting in a normal year. People over 55 are the bulk of people who quit voting (death and debility), and people under 40 are the bulk of new voters. Figure that the average voter starts voting at age 22 and quits voting at age 82 (people who live to adulthood in America typically live into their eighties), and about 1.6% of the electorate leaves the electorate every year, almost exclusively in ages 55+, when death rates soar.
Generational identity is as much environment as almost anything else. People 65 and 25 have seen a very different world.
The shift between partisan affinity between old and young voters is now about 25%, so from 2016 you can assume that if nothing changes other than the generational composition of voters, then Trump loses because the vote will have swung 1.6% away from the Republican Party.
For anyone to believe that President Trump will win the Electoral College in 2020, one must assume that he has changed voting patterns due to some great achievement that makes him more popular. This crude estimate allows me to predict that Biden will swing Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida away from Trump, but do nothing else. This would make the election, if nothing else happened:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;6&AK=0;3;4&AZ=2;11;3&AR=0;6;6&CA=0;55;6&CO=1;9;5&CT=0;7;5&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;9&FL=1;29;2&GA=2;16;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;6;7&KS=0;6;5&KY=0;8;6&LA=0;8;5&MD=0;10;6&MA=0;11;6&MI=1;16;2&MN=1;10;2&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;10;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=1;6;3&NH=1;4;2&NJ=0;14;5&NM=1;5;7&NY=0;29;6&NC=2;15;3&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;18;7&OK=0;7;6&OR=0;7;5&PA=1;20;2&RI=0;4;6&SC=0;9;5&SD=0;3;5&TN=0;11;5&TX=2;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;6&VA=1;13;5&WA=0;12;5&WV=0;5;6&WI=1;10;2&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;3&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=2;1;7&NE=0;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=2;1;3&NE3=0;1;6)
8% or more -- saturation 7
4% to 7.99% -- saturation 5
1.5% to 3.99% -- saturation 3
under 1.5% -- saturation 2
Biden/Harris 307
Trump/Pence 230
Paradoxically the old pattern of no more than five states changing from one side to the other would hold -- but these four states comprise 75 electoral votes, nearly one-seventh of the total vote in the Electoral College.
Note that the composition of the vote by age matters greatly. People over 55 (and I see no cause to distinguish such people in their voting pattern) are about 5% more R than D in their voting in a normal year. People under 40 are about 20% more D than R in their voting in a normal year. People over 55 are the bulk of people who quit voting (death and debility), and people under 40 are the bulk of new voters. Figure that the average voter starts voting at age 22 and quits voting at age 82 (people who live to adulthood in America typically live into their eighties), and about 1.6% of the electorate leaves the electorate every year, almost exclusively in ages 55+, when death rates soar.
Generational identity is as much environment as almost anything else. People 65 and 25 have seen a very different world.
The shift between partisan affinity between old and young voters is now about 25%, so from 2016 you can assume that if nothing changes other than the generational composition of voters, then Trump loses because the vote will have swung 1.6% away from the Republican Party.
For anyone to believe that President Trump will win the Electoral College in 2020, one must assume that he has changed voting patterns due to some great achievement that makes him more popular. This crude estimate allows me to predict that Biden will swing Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida away from Trump, but do nothing else. This would make the election, if nothing else happened:
8% or more -- saturation 7
4% to 7.99% -- saturation 5
1.5% to 3.99% -- saturation 3
under 1.5% -- saturation 2
Biden/Harris 307
Trump/Pence 230
Paradoxically the old pattern of no more than five states changing from one side to the other would hold -- but these four states comprise 75 electoral votes, nearly one-seventh of the total vote in the Electoral College.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.