11-03-2020, 12:15 PM
The fundamental beginning of the 2020 Presidential campaign -- states and districts within 10% of being even in the 2016 Presidential election:
2016 result among states decided by 10% or less:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]](https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;6&AK=0;3;4&AZ=2;11;3&AR=0;6;6&CA=0;55;6&CO=1;9;5&CT=0;7;5&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;9&FL=2;29;2&GA=2;16;5&HI=0;4;7&ID=0;4;6&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=2;6;7&KS=0;6;5&KY=0;8;6&LA=0;8;5&MD=0;10;6&MA=0;11;6&MI=2;16;2&MN=1;10;2&MS=0;6;5&MO=0;10;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=1;6;3&NH=1;4;2&NJ=0;14;5&NM=1;5;7&NY=0;29;6&NC=2;15;3&ND=0;3;5&OH=2;18;7&OK=0;7;6&OR=0;7;5&PA=2;20;2&RI=0;4;6&SC=0;9;5&SD=0;3;5&TN=0;11;5&TX=2;38;7&UT=0;6;7&VT=0;3;6&VA=1;13;5&WA=0;12;5&WV=0;5;6&WI=2;10;2&WY=0;3;6&ME=1;2;3&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=2;1;7&NE=0;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=2;1;3&NE3=0;1;6)
8% or more -- saturation 7
4% to 7.99% -- saturation 5
1.5% to 2.99% -- saturation 3
under 1.5% -- saturation 2
States in gray look too far away to be affected by a shift in votes from 2016 to polling in 2018. Should any such state go into play, then differences between 2016 and 2020 are profound in the extreme. This range of states is between 203 and 413 electoral votes for a Democrat (and 125 and 335 for Trump). Assuming that no state that Trump lost by 10% or more in 2016 will vote for him in 2020, President Trump has at most a chance for being re-elected much like Obama in 2012 -- but he can lose as badly as GHWB did in 1992.
Remember that if such a state as Oregon goes into play for Trump, then the Democrat is in supreme trouble and at risk of losing a landslide. On the other side, if a state such as Missouri goes into play, then Trump is at risk of a landslide loss. Because there is no distinction between winning with 270 and 335 (or 413, or even 538 electoral votes)... the significance of a landslide win or loss is coattails in Congress
This is still relevant 43 months after the 2016 election and 5 months before the 2020 election.
..................................................
Furthermore, the electoral histories of the states are relevant over the last five Presidential elections. All but the 2008 election were close, and I am not going to show anything before 2000 because several states that used to be reliably D in their voting are quite the opposite now.
How states have voted from 2000 on:
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=2;1;7]](https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;7&AK=2;3;7&AZ=2;11;7&AR=2;6;7&CA=1;55;7&CO=1;9;2&CT=1;7;7&DE=1;3;7&DC=1;3;7&FL=2;29;2&GA=2;16;7&HI=1;4;7&ID=2;4;7&IL=1;20;7&IN=2;11;4&IA=1;6;2&KS=2;6;7&KY=2;8;7&LA=2;8;7&MD=1;10;7&MA=1;11;7&MI=1;16;5&MN=1;10;7&MS=2;6;7&MO=2;10;7&MT=2;3;7&NV=1;6;5&NH=1;4;5&NJ=1;14;7&NM=1;5;5&NY=1;29;7&NC=2;15;4&ND=2;3;7&OH=2;18;2&OK=2;7;7&OR=1;7;7&PA=1;20;5&RI=1;4;7&SC=2;9;7&SD=2;3;7&TN=2;11;7&TX=2;38;7&UT=2;6;7&VT=1;3;7&VA=1;13;2&WA=1;12;7&WV=2;5;7&WI=1;10;5&WY=2;3;7&ME=1;2;7&ME1=1;1;7&ME2=1;1;5&NE=2;2;7&NE1=2;1;7&NE2=2;1;4&NE3=2;1;7)
all 5 for the Republican
4 R, 1 D
3 R, 2D
3 D, 2 R
4 D, 1 R
all five for the Democrat
Historical patterns matter greatly -- until they don't.
2016 result among states decided by 10% or less:
8% or more -- saturation 7
4% to 7.99% -- saturation 5
1.5% to 2.99% -- saturation 3
under 1.5% -- saturation 2
States in gray look too far away to be affected by a shift in votes from 2016 to polling in 2018. Should any such state go into play, then differences between 2016 and 2020 are profound in the extreme. This range of states is between 203 and 413 electoral votes for a Democrat (and 125 and 335 for Trump). Assuming that no state that Trump lost by 10% or more in 2016 will vote for him in 2020, President Trump has at most a chance for being re-elected much like Obama in 2012 -- but he can lose as badly as GHWB did in 1992.
Remember that if such a state as Oregon goes into play for Trump, then the Democrat is in supreme trouble and at risk of losing a landslide. On the other side, if a state such as Missouri goes into play, then Trump is at risk of a landslide loss. Because there is no distinction between winning with 270 and 335 (or 413, or even 538 electoral votes)... the significance of a landslide win or loss is coattails in Congress
This is still relevant 43 months after the 2016 election and 5 months before the 2020 election.
..................................................
Furthermore, the electoral histories of the states are relevant over the last five Presidential elections. All but the 2008 election were close, and I am not going to show anything before 2000 because several states that used to be reliably D in their voting are quite the opposite now.
How states have voted from 2000 on:
all 5 for the Republican
4 R, 1 D
3 R, 2D
3 D, 2 R
4 D, 1 R
all five for the Democrat
Historical patterns matter greatly -- until they don't.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.