![[Image: Nov03.png]](https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Pngs/Nov03.png)
From electoral-vote.com: polls as of November 3.
Firm colors show the leader up by at least 10%; paler shades over 5% but less than 10%; white with pale borders under 5% leads ... white is a tie. Don't worry; it will all soon be like a preview show for a sporting event; you will forget everything that you saw on the preview show as the game unfolds. For that reason I do not watch pregame shows for sporting events. All the effort that any of you put into watching polls will start becoming moot.
216 strong Biden
56 likely Biden
76 barely Biden
18 indeterminate
44 barely Trump
42 likely Trump
83 strong Trump
2 -- ME-02 and NE-02
Electoral-Vote .com does not distinguish the historically-wayward Second Districts of Maine and Nebraska from the states at large. Both, I think, are "barely Biden".
With "strong" and "likely" Biden alone, Biden can win 272 (I consider ME-02 "barely Biden") electoral votes. Trump has to win everything in red, the tie in Ohio, and every state described as "Barely Biden" while picking off one state in the "likely Biden" category. If this polling composite is correct, and every state outside the margin of error (4%) goes as expected, then Biden wins. It is that simple.
A caveat: this is how things looked in 2016:
![[Image: Nov08.png]](https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Pngs/Nov08.png)
Things are marginally better for Biden than they were for Hillary Clinton. Don't pop any champagne corks yet if you are a Democrat or a Trump-hater.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.