Generation Theory Thread

[Mikebert]

(05-15-2017, 10:00 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(05-14-2017, 01:06 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(05-14-2017, 10:10 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(05-13-2017, 05:46 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Actually, the antiimmigrant sentiment is economic, not social.

I disagree. I think it's both.  Some see immigrants as threatening and others as competition.  The result is the same though the feelings are not.  Xenophobia operates on many levels.

The social prejudice against immigrants is not new; those feelings have always been there.  What's new is economic stresses from immigration translating antiimmigrant feelings into actual policy action.  That points to a fourth turning.  Only Mikebert's desire to preserve his political misconceptions prevents him from seeing that.

The openness with which prejudice is shown today is a throwback to that earlier period Trump's supporters see as the time when America was Great.  It's reactionary in a broad sense, and can't just be cited as more of the same.  I do agree that we are in a 4T, but the path forward is murky at best.  I've heard more comments about tribalism replacing partisanship in the last few weeks than I've ever heard before.  How des that get resolved?  Mike is right about that.  It speaks of 2T sentiment.

The reason why I am bringing this up is I am working on my third cliodynamics paper.  The second was accepted for publication and will appear near the end of the year. This one discussed generational cycles (like the saeculum) as a model for what Turchin calls fathers and sons cycles (see p 43 in Ages of Discord). In briefly review the literature on these (including Generations) and propose a model for them based on S&H's idea that history creates generations and generations create history, and apply it to Turchin's database on American sociopolitical instability to which I added extra events in order the extend it back to colonial times. I also attempted to fit Turchin's social contagion model (see pp 45-51 in Ages of Discord). Here's what that looks like:



I also employ a simplified version of the political stress index (PSI) developed by Jack Goldstone and modified for modern times by Turchin (see page 23 in AoD). I simplified it further keeping only the key elements that affect its timing. This is what PSI looks like:


Using these tools I find that 2Ts are periods predicted by both the generational model and the social contagion model that begin when PSI is low. 4Ts are periods predicted by the generational model which begin when PSI is high. The model starts with an assumed 4T over 1774-1789. Three 2T-type eras are forecast: 1831-1845, 1896-1914, and 1968-1984, and two 4T-type eras 1862-1879 and 1932-1948.  One of the latter has a spike in the social contagion model (Civil War) while the other does not (Depression).  The one with the spike has huge internal violence, the other, not so much.  At present we have a rising social contagion peak (top fig) and a rising PSI (bottom fig). PSI has risen a LOT since 2016.  So much so that the level of PSI in 2008 is no long high.  Yet the generational model (what S&H call the constellation) has the current turning beginning in 2008, not 2016.  So a turning beginning 2008 does quality as one in terms of PSI.  Since the social contagion model is soaring (top fig) its certainly going to be a social moment, but it is mapping out as a 2T rather than a 4T.

But I only have two data points, and so would inclined to dismiss this and still operate as if we in a 4T.  But some evidence that this era really is more like past 4Ts than past 1T, 2T and 3Ts, would be helpful.  So I am making a devil's advocate argument to see if anyone can knock it down with evidence and reason. In the end I will probably not include the above discussion on what distinguishes a 2T from a 4T.  It is not a critical element, for the bulk of the paper there is no real need to distinguish 2Ts from 4Ts.

I have so far never encountered a fully-satisfying explanation for why there should be two different kinds of "crisis" turnings or why they should alternate with each other.