2016 Polling Thread

[pbrower2a]

I am sure that there will be a toxicology test.

[pbrower2a]

PPP's new Virginia poll finds that Hillary Clinton is still in a pretty good position in the state. In the full field she leads with 45% to 39% for Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson at 6%, Jill Stein at 2%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. In a head to head contest just against Trump, she leads 50/42.

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 2%
McMullin - 1%

Clinton - 50%
Trump - 42%

878 likely voters surveyed between September 9th and 11th.

...Clinton at an 8% lead and over 50% in a binary poll in Virginia?

Time for Donald Trump to start throwing some "Hail, Mammon" (excuse me, "Hail Mary!) passes.






Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump ®:





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9% -- saturation 6
50-54.9% -- saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9% -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump ® vs. Gary Johnson (L):




I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote. Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).

[Dan '82]

A Quinnipiac poll came out today the results from millennials were interesting 

in a two person race:

Clinton                        55%    

Trump                         34     
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      
DK/NA                          8      


In a Four person race:

Clinton              31%    
Trump               26    
Johnson            29    
Stein                 15     

Some thoughts
 1) There’s a very good chance that Trump will do better than Romney did among millennials.
 2) While this poll didn’t have a breakdown by age and race my guess is most of the Johnson supporters are while and in the 4 way race Clinton is getting almost no support from white millennials.
3) It seems like a lot of millennials who backed Sanders in the primaries are now supporting Johnson.

[Bob Butler 54]

Just visited Five Thirty Eight which I generally respect, but they had a wild inaccuracy.  Their image of Trump has far too much hair.

How do you trust an organization that blatantly inaccurate?