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(02-05-2021, 12:34 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (02-04-2021, 06:25 PM)Einzige Wrote: Why is nonviolence to be preferred to violence?
Most people value life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Thus, if you can get these without violence, you do it. Sometimes violence is necessary, I have been saying for a while that non violence doesn't work so well in autocratic cultures. The leaders can just ignore the people. Sorta. Looking at Russia, you wonder. Looking at China, you wonder less.
How do you improve the culture when the leaders and elites do not show conscience? Violence is sometimes necessary?
But you avoid it if you can.
Agreed. And usually, violence generates more violence. Societies built on violence, typically live by violence. The new boss is pretty much the same as the old boss, in those societies. But it depends on the situation, and a matter of degree, and the principles involved. Violent outlaws and tyrants can't always be talked down.
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(02-05-2021, 09:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (02-05-2021, 12:34 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (02-04-2021, 06:25 PM)Einzige Wrote: Why is nonviolence to be preferred to violence?
Most people value life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Thus, if you can get these without violence, you do it. Sometimes violence is necessary, I have been saying for a while that non violence doesn't work so well in autocratic cultures. The leaders can just ignore the people. Sorta. Looking at Russia, you wonder. Looking at China, you wonder less.
How do you improve the culture when the leaders and elites do not show conscience? Violence is sometimes necessary?
But you avoid it if you can.
Agreed. And usually, violence generates more violence. Societies built on violence, typically live by violence. The new boss is pretty much the same as the old boss, in those societies. But it depends on the situation, and a matter of degree, and the principles involved. Violent outlaws and tyrants can't always be talked down.
In America?
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02-05-2021, 09:46 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-05-2021, 09:59 PM by Eric the Green.)
Some late polls posted on RealClearPolitics on Biden job approval. Rasmussen not included.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-7320.html
poll................................date..............sample.......approve....disapprove....spread
Reuters/Ipsos.................2/2 - 2/3........1005 A.......57............34...............+23
Economist/YouGov..........1/31 - 2/2......1272 RV.....50............40...............+10
Politico/Morning Consult..1/29 - 2/1......1986 RV.....58............35...............+23
Quinnipiac......................1/28 - 2/1......1075 A.......49............36...............+13
The Hill/HarrisX...............1/28 - 1/29.....945 RV......61...........39................+22
IBD/TIPP........................1/27 - 1/29....1002 RV.....58............29................+29
Marist.............................1/24 - 1/27....1153 RV.....50............36................+14
Gallup.............................1/21 - 2/2........906 A......57............37................+20
Monmouth.......................1/21 - 1/24.....736 RV.....54............31................+23
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(02-05-2021, 09:30 PM)Einzige Wrote: (02-05-2021, 09:22 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: (02-05-2021, 12:34 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: (02-04-2021, 06:25 PM)Einzige Wrote: Why is nonviolence to be preferred to violence?
Most people value life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Thus, if you can get these without violence, you do it. Sometimes violence is necessary, I have been saying for a while that non violence doesn't work so well in autocratic cultures. The leaders can just ignore the people. Sorta. Looking at Russia, you wonder. Looking at China, you wonder less.
How do you improve the culture when the leaders and elites do not show conscience? Violence is sometimes necessary?
But you avoid it if you can.
Agreed. And usually, violence generates more violence. Societies built on violence, typically live by violence. The new boss is pretty much the same as the old boss, in those societies. But it depends on the situation, and a matter of degree, and the principles involved. Violent outlaws and tyrants can't always be talked down.
In America?
Some people in America care more about white supremacy than life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Perhaps if they put themselves in the driver’s seat, they can get these things for themselves if not for all.
Trump divided the people between us and them, between red and blue. The case could be made that he would encourage violence on the part of and for the red.
We certainly saw this division of caring about some people more than others in the US Civil War.
Yes, the phrase “All men are created equal” as written by a slaveowner shows the contradiction, about some not caring as much for some people’s life, liberty and pursuit of happiness as others. Yes, even in America.
Some people are into tribal thinking. You divide between us and them, develop xenophobia about them, and do stuff to promote us and degrade them. This mode of thinking does exist even in America. It is unfortunately human. It was cost effective and common for much of history.
The roundhead / urban / blue / WEIRD culture puts its foot down occasionally, blocks an Adolf Hitler, George Wallace or Donald Trump, hopefully without violence and force, but you do what you have to. This is one of those times.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.
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(02-05-2021, 10:53 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: The roundhead / urban / blue / WEIRD culture puts its foot down occasionally, blocks an Adolf Hitler, George Wallace or Donald Trump, hopefully without violence and force, but you do what you have to. This is one of those times.
It's sad that this has to be said in a 4T forum. Isn't that very issue that brought us here in the first place?
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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02-13-2021, 04:24 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-13-2021, 04:25 PM by Eric the Green.)
President Biden Job Approval
Poll.................................Date................Sample........Approve...Disapprove...Spread
RCP Average....................1/21 - 2/11.......--...............54.4.........36.8...........+17.6
Rasmussen Reports..........2/9 - 2/11........1500 LV.......52...........45..............+7
Reuters/Ipsos...................2/9 - 2/10........1001 A........57...........37..............+20
The Hill/HarrisX................2/8 - 2/9............938 RV......60...........40..............+20
Economist/YouGov............2/6 - 2/9..........1306 RV......53...........40..............+13
Politico/Morning Consult....2/5 - 2/7..........1986 RV......59...........35..............+24
Emerson...........................2/2 - 2/3.........1429 A.........49..........39...............+10
Quinnipiac........................1/28 - 2/1........1075 A.........49..........36 ..............+13
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-7320.html
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02-23-2021, 04:51 AM
(This post was last modified: 02-23-2021, 01:48 PM by pbrower2a.)
[img width=400 height=390]https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/s_8ks7bqO_6ybvMSdLdPprqkFpo=/0x0:1250x1318/1520x0/filters:focal(0x0:1250x1318):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22316368/Poll_02_21_21_1.jpg[/img]
https://www.deseret.com/utah/2021/2/21/2...ling-trump
[/quote]
1. It is Utah, one of the usual strongest states for Republican pols. Trump had some trouble here, but he is off the scene. This is extremely good performance for a Democrat. Did Obama ever get to this level of support in Utah? OK, Obama is a poor comparison for Utah because he ended up losing 72-24 or Romney in 2012. I'd love to see a preference poll pitting Obama against Trump in Utah.
2. A 6% gap in Utah is far less than one could reasonably expect. If this were where Biden were early in the 2024 electoral season and he had to win Utah, he could have a chance. The line of approval for having a 50% chance of winning re-election for an incumbent in a state-wide race is roughly 43.5% at the start of an electoral season.
3. This is a Rasmussen poll, and Scott Rasmussen usually polls favorably to Republicans.
4. It is arguable that President Biden is getting credit for
(1) the response to COVID-19, and
(2) showing no mercy to the insurrectionists.
Mormons have no tolerance for political violence or street crime. If you can't behave yourself, then stay out of Utah.
[quote author=Tender Branson link=topic=411540.msg7966670#msg7966670 date=1614104612 uid=1660]
VA (CNU)
57% approve
36% disapprove
https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/arch...02-23.html
[/quote]
Stronger than the electoral result. Twelve states now.
![[Image: genusmap.php?year=2016&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;5]](https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2016&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=0;9;5&AK=0;3;5&AZ=0;11;5&AR=0;6;5&CA=1;55;9&CO=0;9;5&CT=0;7;5&DE=0;3;5&DC=0;3;5&FL=0;29;5&GA=1;16;8&HI=0;4;5&ID=0;4;5&IL=0;20;5&IN=0;11;5&IA=0;6;5&KS=0;6;5&KY=2;8;5&LA=0;8;5&MD=0;10;5&MA=0;11;5&MI=1;16;4&MN=0;10;5&MS=2;6;7&MO=0;10;5&MT=0;3;5&NV=0;6;5&NH=1;4;4&NJ=0;14;5&NM=0;5;5&NY=1;29*;9&NC=1;15;6&ND=0;3;5&OH=0;18;5&OK=0;7;5&OR=0;7;5&PA=0;20;5&RI=0;4;5&SC=0;9;5&SD=2;3;5&TN=0;11;5&TX=0;38;5&UT=2;6;4&VT=0;3;5&VA=1;13;7&WA=1;12;8&WV=0;5;5&WI=0;10;5&WY=0;3;5&ME=0;2;5&ME1=0;1;5&ME2=0;1;5&NE=0;2;5&NE1=0;1;5&NE2=0;1;5&NE3=0;1;5)
Key:
30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+
50% green shade: tie
30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+
It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.
*an asterisk indicates that I have accepted a favorability rating. New York State only.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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FYI: Deseret is home to one of the two chemical weapons depots still maintained by Uncle Sam. If Utah is conservative, then Deseret is reactionary.
Update: The Deseret Chemical Depot closed in 2013, transferring remaining materials to nearby Tooele Army Depot. FWIW, it sat at the bottom of a caldera to prevent the heavier-than-air chemicals from escaping the area in case of a leak. Needless to say, it was not a stellar place to work. I visited once. Once was enough.
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Deseret is Mormon lingo, a word for honeybee in the Book of Mormon. It was the proposed name for an independent Mormon republic, or, that failing, a State within the Union. It contained the Great Basin, the upper and middle Colorado Basin, and most of southern coastal California (including what are now Los Angeles and San Diego. It obviously never came to pass.
![[Image: 250px-State_of_Deseret%2C_vector_image_c...11.svg.png]](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/57/State_of_Deseret%2C_vector_image_cropped_-_2011.svg/250px-State_of_Deseret%2C_vector_image_cropped_-_2011.svg.png)
Welcome to Deseret!
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.
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02-23-2021, 12:55 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-23-2021, 12:55 PM by Eric the Green.)
Poll..................................Date............Sample........Approve....Disapprove......Spread
RCP Average....................2/3 - 2/22 --..................54.6..........39.4...............+15.2
Rasmussen Reports..........2/18 - 2/22...1500 LV......50.............48..................+2
Reuters/Ipsos..................2/17 - 2/18....1005 A.......56.............36..................+20
Economist/YouGov...........2/13 - 2/16....1259 RV.....55.............40..................+15
Politico/Morning Consult...2/14 - 2/15....1984 RV.....62.............33..................+29
The Hill/HarrisX................2/12 - 2/15....2835 RV....59.............41..................+18
Quinnipiac........................2/11 - 2/14....1056 A......50.............38..................+12
Gallup..............................2/3 - 2/18......1021 A......56.............40..................+16
Emerson...........................2/2 - 2/3.......1429 A......49.............39..................+10
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-7320.html
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Poll................Date..............Sample......Approve....Disapprove.....Spread
RCP Average...2/11 - 2/28....--..............54.4..........38.9..............+15.5
IBD/TIPP........2/24 - 2/27...1058 RV.....57.............32.................+25
Rasmussen.....2/24 - 2/28...1500 LV.....49.............48...................+1
Reuters..........2/24 - 2/25...1004 A.......57.............37.................+20
The Hill..........2/23 - 2/24.....949 RV.....59.............41.................+18
YouGov..........2/19 - 2/22...1201 RV.....51.............40.................+11
Politico...........2/19 - 2/22...2013 RV.....58.............36.................+22
Quinnipiac......2/11 - 2/14...1056 A.......50.............38.................+12
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls...-7320.html
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