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The Great Power Saeculum 4T
#1
History does not repeat but it rhymes.

Looking out at the geopolitical situation, we seem to be rhyming with the Great Power Saec 4T.

Let us examine without emotion what the next Great War will bring us.

Thermonuclear war will not be the sole means, but it will dominate the experience. Here's the earlier fission version:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07pzdpt...des/player

Rebroadcast 70 years after the initial series. Available at the BBC site for another 23 days from the date of this post.

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#2
No, we should not contemplate such events.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#3
The Third World war is inevitable especially if your girl Hillary gets in. Electing Trump is really the only chance we have of avoiding WW3.
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#4
Meanwhile culturally NZ and England are rhyming more with the great power saeculum. Meaning our boomers actually were more organized and sane. So we could focus more on the economy than that nonsense. But of course though yes we did have our recession that was the worst since the great depression. Now we have a housing crisis.
1984 Apollonian Civic
ISFP - The Artist.






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#5
(09-06-2016, 10:16 AM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:
(09-03-2016, 01:50 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: The Third World war is inevitable especially if your girl Hillary gets in. Electing Trump is really the only chance we have of avoiding WW3.

If you mean avoiding WW3 by becoming a new Russian satellite state, then I will die fighting WW3 before I suck up to the God damned Kremlin.

That condition is as unlikely now as it was during the Cold War.  What will end it the US hegemony that started when the Soviet Union collapsed.  Given the current state of the economy in the US and the decline of the dollar as reserve currency of the world, this is inevitable.
Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard. -- H.L. Mencken

If one rejects laissez faire on account of man's fallibility and moral weakness, one must for the same reason also reject every kind of government action.   -- Ludwig von Mises
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#6
(08-30-2016, 08:53 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: History does not repeat but it rhymes.

Looking out at the geopolitical situation, we seem to be rhyming with the Great Power Saec 4T.

Let us examine without emotion what the next Great War will bring us.

Thermonuclear war will not be the sole means, but it will dominate the experience. Here's the earlier fission version:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07pzdpt...des/player

Rebroadcast 70 years after the initial series. Available at the BBC site for another 23 days from the date of this post.
I read that book in junior high.  It had a chilling effect.  I read On the Beach in college.  About a decade ago I saw the film. It was hard to watch, I kept seeing my granddaughter as the child in the film.  Recently I saw Fail Safe and my blood ran cold.

I do not see how we are paralleling the Great Power Saeculum on any basis other than the most superficial, to wit we were 4T in 1945 and we are 4T now.

In terms of timing, I see the current 4T as more like the revolution or the Civil War 4T and completely unlike the last 4T. I have spent nearly two decades unraveling this stuff since I read Generations in 1998. I posted a brief analysis in the theory section in the Political Cycle Model thread.
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#7
(09-03-2016, 01:50 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: The Third World war is inevitable especially if your girl Hillary gets in. Electing Trump is really the only chance we have of avoiding WW3.

I'd guess you probably like Trump.  Trump is more belligerent than Clinton and Clinton is plenty belligerent.  Neither of them are as belligerent as you though.
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#8
(09-06-2016, 12:30 PM)Galen Wrote: What will end it the US hegemony that started when the Soviet Union collapsed.  Given the current state of the economy in the US and the decline of the dollar as reserve currency of the world, this is inevitable.

How could this be otherwise?  Despite that the US is still in an excellent position given geography.
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#9
(09-07-2016, 02:32 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:
(09-07-2016, 12:51 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(08-30-2016, 08:53 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: History does not repeat but it rhymes.

Looking out at the geopolitical situation, we seem to be rhyming with the Great Power Saec 4T.

Let us examine without emotion what the next Great War will bring us.

Thermonuclear war will not be the sole means, but it will dominate the experience. Here's the earlier fission version:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07pzdpt...des/player

Rebroadcast 70 years after the initial series. Available at the BBC site for another 23 days from the date of this post.
I read that book in junior high.  It had a chilling effect.  I read On the Beach in college.  About a decade ago I saw the film. It was hard to watch, I kept seeing my granddaughter as the child in the film.  Recently I saw Fail Safe and my blood ran cold.

I do not see how we are paralleling the Great Power Saeculum on any basis other than the most superficial, to wit we were 4T in 1945 and we are 4T now.

In terms of timing, I see the current 4T as more like the revolution or the Civil War 4T and completely unlike the last 4T. I have spent nearly two decades unraveling this stuff since I read Generations in 1998. I posted a brief analysis in the theory section in the Political Cycle Model thread.

"On the Beach" is complete rubbish, scientifically speaking. What was depicted in that story is not possible. Fall out and global circulation do not work that way. Of course, the point of that story was to scare people.
Of course not.  I knew that when I read it 40 years ago.  So what is your point?  Nuclear war isn't scary?
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#10
(08-30-2016, 08:53 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: History does not repeat but it rhymes.

Looking out at the geopolitical situation, we seem to be rhyming with the Great Power Saec 4T.

Let us examine without emotion what the next Great War will bring us.

Thermonuclear war will not be the sole means, but it will dominate the experience. Here's the earlier fission version:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07pzdpt...des/player

Rebroadcast 70 years after the initial series. Available at the BBC site for another 23 days from the date of this post.

Who do you think will be firing the weapons?  The U.S.?  Russia?  China?  India and Pakistan?  Iran and Saudi Arabia?

Among those, India and Pakistan are the ones that both have high fertility rates, and thus growing need for resources that may become scarce, a traditional reason for war.  Certainly that was the nominal reason for Germany in the Great Power cycle.

I'm having difficulty envisioning either India or Pakistan uniting enough to pursue a truly expansionist policy, though.
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#11
(09-07-2016, 12:51 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I do not see how we are paralleling the Great Power Saeculum on any basis other than the most superficial, to wit we were 4T in 1945 and we are 4T now.

In terms of timing, I see the current 4T as more like the revolution or the Civil War 4T and completely unlike the last 4T. I have spent nearly two decades unraveling this stuff since I read Generations in 1998. I posted a brief analysis in the theory section in the Political Cycle Model thread.

I agree.  Superficially, we are struggling with the same issues this time as we did last time: economic dominance by a small elite and widespread international tensions.  How we're struggling is more important, and I don't see this cycle following the last playbook. 

In international affairs, we emulate a Southern favorite dish: waffles and chicken.  We don't mind volunteer cannon fodder going off and doing this and that, but please, no draft or even meaningful involvement by the rest of us.  On economic matters, we are no less conflicted, bemoaning the state of the main street economy, while focusing like a laser on comfort for the already comfortable.  On the issue of climate change, we prefer to ignore it completely.

This is an unstable paradigm that seems less likely to be resolved with clarity and justice than just allowed to fester until it explodes.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#12
That seems about right, David. Things are going to boil until they boil over.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#13
(09-07-2016, 01:16 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(09-03-2016, 01:50 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: The Third World war is inevitable especially if your girl Hillary gets in. Electing Trump is really the only chance we have of avoiding WW3.

I'd guess you probably like Trump.  Trump is more belligerent than Clinton and Clinton is plenty belligerent.  Neither of them are as belligerent as you though.

We have some very bad posters here. I guess trolls go with the terror-tory. What with Terror-marie's verbal terrorism, and Cynic's warped worldview, etc., it just shows we are a good sample of the warped state of the public mind today.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#14
(09-18-2016, 08:29 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(09-07-2016, 01:16 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(09-03-2016, 01:50 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: The Third World war is inevitable especially if your girl Hillary gets in. Electing Trump is really the only chance we have of avoiding WW3.

I'd guess you probably like Trump.  Trump is more belligerent than Clinton and Clinton is plenty belligerent.  Neither of them are as belligerent as you though.

We have some very bad posters here. I guess trolls go with the terror-tory. What with Terror-marie's verbal terrorism, and Cynic's warped worldview, etc., it just shows we are a good sample of the warped state of the public mind today.
Funny though it 99% of the time is directed at you. Gee....I wonder why? The high and mighty arrogance that is you is quite unbecoming and does tend to isolate you from others. Especially when you look down on anyone who is not a replica of you. I am more accepting of differences and THAT is why I target you when I see that you are being the cultural bully that you are.
1984 Apollonian Civic
ISFP - The Artist.






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#15
To those who are new to the conflict between Eric and myself I will tell you where it all began quickly. He was the original bully calling certain music crap and rubbish and wrong etc and smearing gen xers as awful for liking that music. I am not an xer but because he was bullying them for culture they love and continues to do so to this day as well as constantly berating any music he does not approve of vehemently that was when I started on him.He is a cultural bully who does not like the same treatment being targeted on him. When cornered he just simply says it is my right to behave this way. The man is a child who is not accepting of others.
1984 Apollonian Civic
ISFP - The Artist.






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#16
(09-18-2016, 09:21 PM)taramarie Wrote: To those who are new to the conflict between Eric and myself I will tell you where it all began quickly. He was the original bully calling certain music crap and rubbish and wrong etc and smearing gen xers as awful for liking that music. I am not an xer but because he was bullying them for culture they love and continues to do so to this day as well as constantly berating any music he does not approve of vehemently that was when I started on him.He is a cultural bully who does not like the same treatment being targeted on him. When cornered he just simply says it is my right to behave this way. The man is a child who is not accepting of others.

Eric's lack of self-awareness would be hilarious if it weren't so sad.
#MakeTheDemocratsGreatAgain
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#17
(09-19-2016, 07:08 AM)Odin Wrote:
(09-18-2016, 09:21 PM)taramarie Wrote: To those who are new to the conflict between Eric and myself I will tell you where it all began quickly. He was the original bully calling certain music crap and rubbish and wrong etc and smearing gen xers as awful for liking that music. I am not an xer but because he was bullying them for culture they love and continues to do so to this day as well as constantly berating any music he does not approve of vehemently that was when I started on him.He is a cultural bully who does not like the same treatment being targeted on him. When cornered he just simply says it is my right to behave this way. The man is a child who is not accepting of others.

Eric's lack of self-awareness would be hilarious if it weren't so sad.

Yeah it is rather sad. And I never even mentioned the other things like thinking it is ok to grope someone you like (without making sure the other is ok prior...only after you get a negative reaction not ok) but not ok to smack the person for inappropriate touching because groping is  showing affection apparently. I did not mention it because that was not where the conflict began. But it started to show me that cultural bully that he is. That he does not have sensitivity for others either. Other examples would be his rants on "materialists vs spiritualists like himself," "The 60's culture vs the wrong culture of the 80's," "bashing xer's and their god awful culture and music," "life after death is correct and saying it isn't is THE WRONG WAY TO THINK AS IT DAMAGES SOCIETY and materialistic because if it is true it is like we have never existed in the first place." That last one belongs in the rants of materialists vs spiritualists but it gives newbies a taste of what to expect from him. I have never exaggerated on what he said. I remember what he says and I just simply replay it back when he says something contradictory to what he has said earlier on which can be the very same day with him as he is all over the show. He seems to not really be enlightened because if he were, he would be aware of his flaws but he ignores them and ignores those who see them like myself. If he really knows about the stars/planets (he is an astrologist) he should be aware us scorpions are "supposed to have" a keen perception about people around us and we have the ability to uncover the real identity of a person with that sense. I do not believe in horoscopes nor astrology unless i saw evidence of this but this is true about me. People fascinate me and that is why I am going to be a concept artist/visual story teller/director and script writer of my novels. Characters fascinate me for their individual personalities and I see Eric's very well. What a character he is indeed! We all have our flaws but the fact he thinks he is enlightened just makes me shake my head when I know he is not even self aware let alone shows any care for others feelings. He is in the dark about himself and others nor shows any interest in wanting to understand the culture of others. That also is not enlightened. He thinks I bully him and try to turn others on him. I have never made someone say what they wish to say to him. Never asked for others support. For this to be a healthy forum he needs to stop his cultural bashing and his bashing of xers. But as he says he will say as he wishes. That is just an excuse to continue so i will continue till i get through that thick skull or at least warn others about him. I have heard he tends to irritate a lot of people. He certainly knows how to isolate himself. He had quite a lot of people on ignore on the old forum. Probably some of them saw him for who he is too. As someone elsewhere told me, he is charming but he is still a troll. I never said anything to get him to say that. Unfortunately that is the truth. It shows how much he isolates himself when he does not want to delve deeper and understand other perceptions and why people are the way they are. I listened to him on why he is the way he is. I understand that. But it does not give him the right to not think of others feelings (groping) or bash others. THIS is my evidence for why I call him a cultural bully and that is the long version of where it all began and spiraled into. By what others post it seems they have a similar opinion but show it in different ways of course. I am what Eric seems to think of a true scorpio. Heh maybe so maybe so! But that means I see right through him. It is not like it is not blatantly obvious. He simply blocks me because it is his way of burying head in sand. He does not want to face the truth about him. THAT is why I feel sorry for him. No one wants to see that. He calls me the troll. No, I just reveal what he is like is all. I say nothing that he has not revealed already. That is rather sad too.
1984 Apollonian Civic
ISFP - The Artist.






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