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Looking Toward The Next High
#21
(05-23-2018, 02:08 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(05-23-2018, 11:44 AM)tg63 Wrote: I personally question the notion that the Boomers will start giving up power in 5 years or so. In 5 years they will range between 63-80. With improved health (compared with past saeculums) and with the benefits of technology, I think they will hang on to power as long as they can, and that will be much beyond age 63. They won't go without a fight.

And that will give them loads of time to make reactionary decisions (or to continue to), that we are left to deal with for a very long time.

Boomers will not simply disappear from public life just because Donald Trump leaves the scene. They will lose their ability to decide which boomer leadership shall prevail. That may be just as well. Younger generations may decide which sort of Boomers have the apices of power. That may ensure that people get Idealist virtues (vision, principle, and decisiveness) without the worst vices (ruthlessness, arrogance, and selfishness) in top leadership. The sort of person who exploits others while demanding to be seen as a benefactor will be a reject for both X and Millennial adults.

That will be a huge improvement. It might not be best to cast off the Boom generation altogether so long as it has people of great ability. Even if we get an X President (we already have had one), then there will be cabinet officers and of course leadership in Congress. Donald Trump is not the definitive Boomer; he is simply the worst sort of Idealist leader short of the Old Bolsheviks and Stalin.

Yup, a basket full of deplorable boomers we have.

1. Most of the Neocons.  Neocons basically wrecked the Mideast.  There's Shrub, Carl Rogue, Gina cat'o nine tails Haspell , Robert Kagan,William Kristol, etc.

2. What the US needs is a purge of all Neocons. I'd love to extradite every one of them to stand trial in the International Court of Justice for war crimes. If we fail to purge, the US will go down as the most hypocritical nation ever.

3. Hang 'em high.
---Value Added Cool
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#22
(05-23-2018, 02:08 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(05-23-2018, 11:44 AM)tg63 Wrote: I personally question the notion that the Boomers will start giving up power in 5 years or so. In 5 years they will range between 63-80. With improved health (compared with past saeculums) and with the benefits of technology, I think they will hang on to power as long as they can, and that will be much beyond age 63. They won't go without a fight.

And that will give them loads of time to make reactionary decisions (or to continue to), that we are left to deal with for a very long time.

Boomers will not simply disappear from public life just because Donald Trump leaves the scene. They will lose their ability to decide which boomer leadership shall prevail. That may be just as well. Younger generations may decide which sort of Boomers have the apices of power. That may ensure that people get Idealist virtues (vision, principle, and decisiveness) without the worst vices (ruthlessness, arrogance, and selfishness) in top leadership. The sort of person who exploits others while demanding to be seen as a benefactor will be a reject for both X and Millennial adults.

That will be a huge improvement. It might not be best to cast off the Boom generation altogether so long as it has people of great ability. Even if we get an X President (we already have had one), then there will be cabinet officers and of course leadership in Congress. Donald Trump is not the definitive Boomer; he is simply the worst sort of Idealist leader short of the Old Bolsheviks and Stalin.

That's right. It is not a question of fighting against the continued power of boomers. It is a question of fighting against the worst party and factions, regardless of generation. Bad prophet leaders crop up in every cycle, and so do good prophet leaders, especially toward the end of the Crisis. It's time for them to step up, and time for millennials to vote in every midterm election.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#23
(05-23-2018, 11:44 AM)tg63 Wrote: I personally question the notion that the Boomers will start giving up power in 5 years or so. In 5 years they will range between 63-80. With improved health (compared with past saeculums) and with the benefits of technology, I think they will hang on to power as long as they can, and that will be much beyond age 63. They won't go without a fight.

And that will give them loads of time to make reactionary decisions (or to continue to), that we are left to deal with for a very long time.

I can see that POV.  They are maybe too young to exit.  HOWEVER at the same time we must look at the ages and position of the youngers.  Nomads are beginning to retire.  Do you realize that?  Heroes are beginning to establish themselves in the workforce and in public life.  Artists are already teenagers.  How much longer can Disaster last in this scenario? 

I recognize cycles have gone long in the past and even skipped archetypes.  Then I also look at the past and I see everything the authors have envisioned has happened.  We had a great war.  We had a financial crisis.  That stuff has happened.  A nomad assumed the presidency with support of the prophets already.

To me, I can see it both ways.  I am hopeful of my view, but can accept the other view of a longer cycle.  I am only really starting to think trump is an aberration from the cycle and the republican/right/neocon is going to be evacuated soon.  That doesn't mean they are not still around.  It just mean their wad has been blown already.  We have to look at the cycles for what they are.  The estimated events and actions and repercussions may have already happened.

I was watching some reality show from the 90s.  The kid was traveling to europe and his dad was like "they have bombers and terrorists there NOT LIKE HERE".  If someone was an adult in the 90s in America, they can understand what has changed and how our civilization was altered by 911.  Then just a few years later the financial crisis.... where a nomad was thrown out in front of the country to explain what happened and ask for everyone's patience blah blah.  We had children (artists) born in that period who never knew life NOT in a crisis.

I could go on and on.  I see ALREADY so many things from the model already having happened.  WORD FOR WORD.
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#24
(05-23-2018, 07:49 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(05-22-2018, 10:25 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-22-2018, 07:10 PM)Mikebert Wrote: Welcome Nomad

I use a generation model to structure the saeculum. Basically I start with a core social moment, the Revolutionary era, which I date from 1774 (1st Continental Congress) to 1789 (Constitution ratified). I define a dominant gen who comes of age (age 21) during this time and subtract 21 from the 1774-89 dates to get birth dates. I then add the average age of political leaders (from Howe's database) to determine when they came to power, which defines the next social moment.  I then repeat the process over and over again generation the cycle down through to today. The projected 4T from this approach is 2005-2023, which is based on when Boomers (as predicted by the model, which is slightly different from he S&H dates) are supposed to be in power based on that two century old starting point.

Now empirically, one can make a case for a 4T start in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005/6, 2008, 2010 or 2016. I favor 2008 for the start of the social moment and expect it to last until around 2024. One can fill it out on each end with a couple of cusp years if one likes.

As for what's left in the 4T, well I note that there are many cycles like the S&H one and these offer insight that can be used to flesh out the S&H-derived picture. For example Steve Skowronek has an interesting presidential cycle that I find useful.  If you search on his name you can read a bit on it. An interesting twist would be if Trump turns out to the a disjunctive-type president in his cycle.

Then there is the Schlesinger cycle and the associated critical elections. Social moments since the Transcendental 2T has all had a critical election. Current candidates for these are 2008 and 2016. If Trump wins re-election then 2008 is ruled out as a critical election.  If he loses then 2016 is eliminated. If the parties just keep on switching every two terms as they have since 1992, then neither will be and this critical election rule will be violated, suggesting that something has changed fundamentally with the cycles.

There is also an economic cycle called the K-cycle, which has been aligned with turnings over the last century. A 3T/4T turning transition is associated with the start of the "winter season" of the K-cycle, which has happened most recently in 1929 and 2008.

Based on all this, I am looking for a recession to start later this year and Trump to not win re-election as a result, thus confirming the 2008 critical election and making a 2008 4T start a very good bet.

I believe the stock market is extremely overvalued and will eventually decline, but it is taking its sweet time. When it does it should go down to 8000 on the Dow or below, which is a long way down, which I think would probably give us another financial crisis and serious recession, making Trump a disjunctive president and the next president a FDR/Reagan-type figure according to the Skowronek model. Such a set of events would serve as an S&H 4T climax like 1781 or 1941, which is usually the last big event of the 4T.  It would then sputter out some years later.

That's a lot of information lol.... I appreciate it.   I do hope you're wrong.  No matter what my political beliefs, no one can really say our economy is not revived.  I will say people got left behind along the way.  Some never re-entered the job force.  I am not personally savvy with market stats.  However, the unemployment rate is even a little too low.  Inflation is not very present.  If there is another financial crisis, it would take a lot longer than 5-6 years to heal again from that.  When you get to the end of a cycle, there is the blurring of is it crisis or high -- you are saying 2023-24, if we crash again, that upswing will be really late.  Contrarily, there has not been an enormous re-inventing of our civilization.  I must say, if we are to crash again, it can only be with such force we may not continue as a people.  When I think that, I have to conclude the "soft reboot" has already happened.  Now, we are moving into full-on rebuilding from it.  There remain some issues of  public nature and infrastructure has never been addressed, etc.. all those things might become apparent over that period. 

What do you think?  I really am here to learn and understand others as well as to stick to my guns if I just don't see it Smile

Trump is horrid. It's not that I am a liberal; if it takes an arch-reactionary traditionalist like Sir Winston Churchill to fend off dangers that fit the "demonic" category, then so be it. We would be doing well enough with an arch-conservative who has the integrity, wisdom, eloquence, imagination, respect for precedent and protocol, mastery of history, and overall decency of Obama. Donald Trump has the "reactionary" part down well, but nothing else.

If you have seen the movies Their Darkest Hour and Dunkirk, then you are reminded in cinematic form of how dangerous a Crisis Era can be if you missed your history lessons. You also recognize how different Churchill was from Trump. Churchill reserved his sharpest deprecation for the Enemy... and recognized that people not conservative (or Conservative) had as much stake in keeping the Wehrmacht, SS, and Gestapo out of Britain as did the usual constituency for conservatism. He also respected the limits of human capacity to endure hardship and the need to preserve old decencies -- like a free press and a competitive politics necessary for keeping him honest. Trump sees any form of opposition to his selfish, bigoted agenda as treachery.

Yes, there were British people in the 1930s calling for making Britain great again -- the British Union of Fascists and National Socialists. Sure -- great in human suffering in concentration camps, torture chambers, and ghettos.  By 1940 the BUF was irrelevant (some of its figures, like "Lord Haw-Haw", having gone to Germany and doing treason), and Britain had a focus on survival -- to not be defeated.

The extreme selfishness, arrogance, and ruthlessness of our current President (what Howe and Strauss consider the most dangerous traits of an Idealist generation) could create a Crisis in itself. He could create a political mess without precedent in American history through a bungled foreign policy.  In the event of an economic meltdown he might offer solutions completely wrong for America, such as show projects that cost  greatly and do little good. (America did such great projects as Hoover dam, the Pasadena Freeway and the original segment of the Pennsylvania Turnpike, the George Washington and Golden Gate bridges still useful to this date, but as a rule there was cost-benefit analysis.

The best idealist leaders are erudite, principled, and cultured. They know enough to leave the practical details to people who have shown the flair for the nitty-gritty of enterprise and administration -- and the grunt work to people who will do it out of economic necessity and a recognition that they are the only ones fit to do it.

For this Crisis to go well, Donald Trump really must go, as must his cronies and stooges. Such will take until at least January 2021.

I'll be honest you sound profound in your knowledge.  You have good mastery of past cycles which I do not.  I'm trying to get more expansive as I read the text or read your post.  However, a lot of what you are saying is the same as I have been hearing for many years.  With respect it is much fearmongering and simply saying someone is awful or the politics are raw.  I've seen so much preaching of doom. I'm trying to look at events and consensus from what I see that are indicators.

I'm not seeing you apply that mastery to the events of this Crisis and what you think they mean/meant in terms of a new arm of the Saeculum passing or coming.  You say trump must go for the crisis to end, but that's unrealistic.  In the past, there was one side of a political spectrum that pushed out the other.  But that doesn't mean a complete bonfire of everyone on a side.  They are still around.  I called trump a POSSIBLE ABERRATION in the model.  But even after reading your post and others, I feel like YES there is a resurrection of neocon that is trying to happen.  The vultures are swooping hoping to take advantage of trumps invitation.  But that doesn't mean the seachange has not already occurred.  I think the GENERAL CONSENSUS (and this is what the authors use to portray a to portray shift in cycle) the GENERAL CONSENSUS is trump is an aberration and I doubt in 2018 elections and definitely not in 2020 elections that a neocon mindset will or could prevail. 

We thought it was impossible last time.  But the current "powers" (and the general dislike of it) along with the genera consensus will become clear very soon.  But one must look beyond the current to prognosticate.  It shouldn't be about what we see now.  I think that is the whole point of the books.
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#25
(05-23-2018, 04:03 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:
(05-23-2018, 02:08 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(05-23-2018, 11:44 AM)tg63 Wrote: I personally question the notion that the Boomers will start giving up power in 5 years or so. In 5 years they will range between 63-80. With improved health (compared with past saeculums) and with the benefits of technology, I think they will hang on to power as long as they can, and that will be much beyond age 63. They won't go without a fight.

And that will give them loads of time to make reactionary decisions (or to continue to), that we are left to deal with for a very long time.

Boomers will not simply disappear from public life just because Donald Trump leaves the scene. They will lose their ability to decide which boomer leadership shall prevail. That may be just as well. Younger generations may decide which sort of Boomers have the apices of power. That may ensure that people get Idealist virtues (vision, principle, and decisiveness) without the worst vices (ruthlessness, arrogance, and selfishness) in top leadership. The sort of person who exploits others while demanding to be seen as a benefactor will be a reject for both X and Millennial adults.

That will be a huge improvement. It might not be best to cast off the Boom generation altogether so long as it has people of great ability. Even if we get an X President (we already have had one), then there will be cabinet officers and of course leadership in Congress. Donald Trump is not the definitive Boomer; he is simply the worst sort of Idealist leader short of the Old Bolsheviks and Stalin.

Yup, a basket full of deplorable boomers we have.

1. Most of the Neocons.  Neocons basically wrecked the Mideast.  There's Shrub, Carl Rogue, Gina cat'o nine tails Haspell , Robert Kagan,William Kristol, etc.

2. What the US needs is a purge of all Neocons. I'd love to extradite every one of them to stand trial in the International Court of Justice for war crimes. If we fail to purge, the US will go down as the most hypocritical nation ever.

3. Hang 'em high.

hey ragnarok -- missed this one.  Since everyone here seems pretty open-minded and even intelligent, I'm going to assume you are also.  Based on that, I only want to know DO you think your post was anything but rhetoric and does it help anything?

I ask this based on the rather rough description of the S&H texts concerning people of a certain age group and bracket.  Like....... isn't it things like what you expressed in your post that causes a Crisis to begin with Angel  and is this miming really necessary to corporealize anything except counter-productivity?  seriously

and I am not judging. just take it from the nomad who came to life during Rosemary's Baby when my fetus could have been the devil and public institutions were created to let others have the choice whether I would exit the womb in solid or liquid form.  That's why I like these authors, they truly hit things EXTREMELY spot on.

And yes, it has always felt like others receive benefits which we pay for and we never get them ourselves.  That's maybe why we don't like the rhetoric because in the end it means nothing.  Right now there is an administration that exists solely to roll back the Obama admin.  With no path FORWARD, only a path to ERASE PROGRESS OVER IDEOLOGY.  I don't know how that is different from rhetorical speakers even if they are the rhetoric opposite of that.  You must see where I am coming from.   Idea
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#26
(05-23-2018, 11:14 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-23-2018, 04:03 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:
(05-23-2018, 02:08 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(05-23-2018, 11:44 AM)tg63 Wrote: I personally question the notion that the Boomers will start giving up power in 5 years or so. In 5 years they will range between 63-80. With improved health (compared with past saeculums) and with the benefits of technology, I think they will hang on to power as long as they can, and that will be much beyond age 63. They won't go without a fight.

And that will give them loads of time to make reactionary decisions (or to continue to), that we are left to deal with for a very long time.

Boomers will not simply disappear from public life just because Donald Trump leaves the scene. They will lose their ability to decide which boomer leadership shall prevail. That may be just as well. Younger generations may decide which sort of Boomers have the apices of power. That may ensure that people get Idealist virtues (vision, principle, and decisiveness) without the worst vices (ruthlessness, arrogance, and selfishness) in top leadership. The sort of person who exploits others while demanding to be seen as a benefactor will be a reject for both X and Millennial adults.

That will be a huge improvement. It might not be best to cast off the Boom generation altogether so long as it has people of great ability. Even if we get an X President (we already have had one), then there will be cabinet officers and of course leadership in Congress. Donald Trump is not the definitive Boomer; he is simply the worst sort of Idealist leader short of the Old Bolsheviks and Stalin.

Yup, a basket full of deplorable boomers we have.

1. Most of the Neocons.  Neocons basically wrecked the Mideast.  There's Shrub, Carl Rogue, Gina cat'o nine tails Haspell , Robert Kagan,William Kristol, etc.

2. What the US needs is a purge of all Neocons. I'd love to extradite every one of them to stand trial in the International Court of Justice for war crimes. If we fail to purge, the US will go down as the most hypocritical nation ever.

3. Hang 'em high.

hey ragnarok -- missed this one.  Since everyone here seems pretty open-minded and even intelligent, I'm going to assume you are also.  Based on that, I only want to know DO you think your post was anything but rhetoric and does it help anything?

I ask this based on the rather rough description of the S&H texts concerning people of a certain age group and bracket.  Like....... isn't it things like what you expressed in your post that causes a Crisis to begin with Angel  and is this miming really necessary to corporealize anything except counter-productivity?  seriously

and I am not judging. just take it from the nomad who came to life during Rosemary's Baby when my fetus could have been the devil and public institutions were created to let others have the choice whether I would exit the womb in solid or liquid form.  That's why I like these authors, they truly hit things EXTREMELY spot on.

And yes, it has always felt like others receive benefits which we pay for and we never get them ourselves.  That's maybe why we don't like the rhetoric because in the end it means nothing.  Right now there is an administration that exists solely to roll back the Obama admin.  With no path FORWARD, only a path to ERASE PROGRESS OVER IDEOLOGY.  I don't know how that is different from rhetorical speakers even if they are the rhetoric opposite of that.  You must see where I am coming from.   Idea

Yeah, sure I can go off as rhetorical.   Anyhow, I have a sore spot for hypocrisy.  There's not much said about the fact neocons have killed legions in the Mid East and advocate policies that are bankrupting the US, both financially and morally.  How can the US go off saying we're conducting wars , while saying these wars are for the sake of human rights. Here are some examples of blood on neocons' hands:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Highway_of_Death
http://www.topcriminaljusticedegrees.org/war/

And so it goes, we're preoccupied with who stands and sits during the national anthem.  That's some messed up priorities man. People need to wake the hell up.  A path forward, and there are many is to start by getting these evil doers out of positions of power.

I'm old enough to remember Nam and nothing's changed.


I agree that Trump has some sort of Obama hangup.

The path forward is simple actually. Stop doing things that are unsustainable and fragile. If we don't climate change and resource depletion will be the real judges. A crisis happens when karma reveals a litany of past screw ups. The 2008 melt down was due to fraud and a blind belief that markets are the be all to end all to economics. IOW, that was karma for tinkle down economics and the supply side religion. Supply side is a religion because it has a book, "Free to Choose" - Milton Freedman and rituals like cutting taxes and reducing spending, except for military spending.

I'm a something 'cause nobody agrees where 1962 belongs... With Trump, I can be a missile crisis baby. Big Grin
---Value Added Cool
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#27
(05-24-2018, 12:47 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:
(05-23-2018, 11:14 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-23-2018, 04:03 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:
(05-23-2018, 02:08 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(05-23-2018, 11:44 AM)tg63 Wrote: I personally question the notion that the Boomers will start giving up power in 5 years or so. In 5 years they will range between 63-80. With improved health (compared with past saeculums) and with the benefits of technology, I think they will hang on to power as long as they can, and that will be much beyond age 63. They won't go without a fight.

And that will give them loads of time to make reactionary decisions (or to continue to), that we are left to deal with for a very long time.

Boomers will not simply disappear from public life just because Donald Trump leaves the scene. They will lose their ability to decide which boomer leadership shall prevail. That may be just as well. Younger generations may decide which sort of Boomers have the apices of power. That may ensure that people get Idealist virtues (vision, principle, and decisiveness) without the worst vices (ruthlessness, arrogance, and selfishness) in top leadership. The sort of person who exploits others while demanding to be seen as a benefactor will be a reject for both X and Millennial adults.

That will be a huge improvement. It might not be best to cast off the Boom generation altogether so long as it has people of great ability. Even if we get an X President (we already have had one), then there will be cabinet officers and of course leadership in Congress. Donald Trump is not the definitive Boomer; he is simply the worst sort of Idealist leader short of the Old Bolsheviks and Stalin.

Yup, a basket full of deplorable boomers we have.

1. Most of the Neocons.  Neocons basically wrecked the Mideast.  There's Shrub, Carl Rogue, Gina cat'o nine tails Haspell , Robert Kagan,William Kristol, etc.

2. What the US needs is a purge of all Neocons. I'd love to extradite every one of them to stand trial in the International Court of Justice for war crimes. If we fail to purge, the US will go down as the most hypocritical nation ever.

3. Hang 'em high.

hey ragnarok -- missed this one.  Since everyone here seems pretty open-minded and even intelligent, I'm going to assume you are also.  Based on that, I only want to know DO you think your post was anything but rhetoric and does it help anything?

I ask this based on the rather rough description of the S&H texts concerning people of a certain age group and bracket.  Like....... isn't it things like what you expressed in your post that causes a Crisis to begin with Angel  and is this miming really necessary to corporealize anything except counter-productivity?  seriously

and I am not judging. just take it from the nomad who came to life during Rosemary's Baby when my fetus could have been the devil and public institutions were created to let others have the choice whether I would exit the womb in solid or liquid form.  That's why I like these authors, they truly hit things EXTREMELY spot on.

And yes, it has always felt like others receive benefits which we pay for and we never get them ourselves.  That's maybe why we don't like the rhetoric because in the end it means nothing.  Right now there is an administration that exists solely to roll back the Obama admin.  With no path FORWARD, only a path to ERASE PROGRESS OVER IDEOLOGY.  I don't know how that is different from rhetorical speakers even if they are the rhetoric opposite of that.  You must see where I am coming from.   Idea

I'm a something 'cause nobody agrees where 1962 belongs... With Trump, I can be a missile crisis baby. Big Grin

lol because I know you don't wanna hide under a desk anymore.  I don't disagree with anything you have said.  I would have said it once.  Understanding the generational models has taught me something tho.  Taught me that in order to survive and thrive now, none of that matters.  I can conjure up names and boxes to categorize the sins of the ignorant or I can choose to work in a team setting to solve problems regardless of core ideology.  That is what defines a High and to me, it seems reasonable.  Others may not agree, however they EXIST.  Compromise must be struck and those who do not want compromise will fall away dead eventually.  They cannot exist in the new turning.  Not that someone has come and rounded them up to the ovens but because their one-sided diatribe is too weak among those who do not care what anyone believes so long as the work gets done.

Boomers are too unchangeable.  The books nailed that HARD.  It's like "do you love the earth" or "do you want trickle down" well NO...... the people who will solve those problems won't be using that language to cooperate.  It is too caustic.  It will be object-oriented problem-solving instead of ideological triumph over some scarecrow demonization.  The Boomers are too instilled with things like a Hitler figure or some fixed plot of land to bomb in order to solve a problem.  It's not always so concise. 

And while this, I can say with certainty the left/right paradigm is a lie and only leads to disaster and crisis.  I think that is why so many people WANT to believe the worst of this crisis is yet to happen.  Boomers have a sort of self-fulfilling (and self-loathing) prophetic mindset that things are only "finished" when there's a charred landscape of the dead in a foreign field... then we can all celebrate back here in the states like VJ-DAY and listen to the fireside chat tell us we have won something.
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#28
It's good to see your comments on the forum, Nomad.

We are where we are, as I see it, because the wrong decisions have been made for too long. In the end, it is not about ideology. It is about what works best for the people. Right now people in the USA are polarized. Many people on the right and some on the left are dedicated to their ideology and don't see the real needs. Compromise has just not been possible. The first turning, which is really not a "high," but more like a spirit-dead phase of recovery from trauma, is not going to come without first going through the gauntlett and facing the fire. There are no victory celebrations and placid conformity to the consensus until the victory has been won.

The track record of the american/anglo-european saeculum in avoiding major war in a 4T is not good. I hope it will not be a holocaust; I don't think it needs to be. But the issues like climate change and the lack of opportunities for many people will not wait. If those who want to take action can't break the stalemate and act on the real issues, and defeat the opposition, then the problems will just get worse and there will be no first turning. It can only come after some real action has been taken and the opponents to action have been defeated. Defeat for the stand pat opponents, the Republicans, will be best if it is defeat at the ballot box. But if it doesn't happen, bullets will fly, and the outcome may not be good. We do have a good track record of victory in 4Ts; the progressive side has always won the war and we have moved forward; not solving all the problems, but solving enough of them so that we can move forward as a nation and not fall into decline and decay. The left/right paradigm is definitely not a lie, but at bottom it is about solving real problems, not just about whose ideology wins. And it's in 4Ts that the victors are able to make real change and get things done, not in 1Ts. A first turning will just see continuation of what is started in the 4T. The way to get through the 4T and into a 1T, is to face the need for the battle and get involved.

4Ts are not times of compromise. The battle has barely been joined in this one yet. So there's no prospect at all of a first turning starting soon. It won't start until 2028 at the earliest, and even then, the first turning will still see more controversy and activism than the previous one did, along with more consensus than in the 4T. And then a second turning will follow in the late 2040s, bringing today's issues to a climax and fulfillment of purpose.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#29
(05-24-2018, 03:25 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: It's good to see your comments on the forum, Nomad.

We are where we are, as I see it, because the wrong decisions have been made for too long. In the end, it is not about ideology. It is about what works best for the people. Right now people in the USA are polarized. Many people on the right and some on the left are dedicated to their ideology and don't see the real needs. Compromise has just not been possible. The first turning, which is really not a "high," but more like a spirit-dead phase of recovery from trauma, is not going to come without first going through the gauntlett and facing the fire. There are no victory celebrations and placid conformity to the consensus until the victory has been won.

The track record of the american/anglo-european saeculum in avoiding major war in a 4T is not good. I hope it will not be a holocaust; I don't think it needs to be. But the issues like climate change and the lack of opportunities for many people will not wait. If those who want to take action can't break the stalemate and act on the real issues, and defeat the opposition, then the problems will just get worse and there will be no first turning. It can only come after some real action has been taken and the opponents to action have been defeated. Defeat for the stand pat opponents, the Republicans, will be best if it is defeat at the ballot box. But if it doesn't happen, bullets will fly, and the outcome may not be good. We do have a good track record of victory in 4Ts; the progressive side has always won the war and we have moved forward; not solving all the problems, but solving enough of them so that we can move forward as a nation and not fall into decline and decay. The left/right paradigm is definitely not a lie, but at bottom it is about solving real problems, not just about whose ideology wins. And it's in 4Ts that the victors are able to make real change and get things done, not in 1Ts. A first turning will just see continuation of what is started in the 4T. The way to get through the 4T and into a 1T, is to face the need for the battle and get involved.

4Ts are not times of compromise. The battle has barely been joined in this one yet. So there's no prospect at all of a first turning starting soon. It won't start until 2028 at the earliest, and even then, the first turning will still see more controversy and activism than the previous one did, along with more consensus than in the 4T. And then a second turning will follow in the late 2040s, bringing today's issues to a climax and fulfillment of purpose.

Thanks, this was a good post.  Forgive, I am slightly ornery just now from being sick.

I do not think there has been a history of a 1st turning not happening.  From the authors' perspective, the only thing ever skipped was a Hero archetype after the Civil War.  O but wait... does that mean 1st turning High was skipped?  I haven't been able to understand that one.

I say right/left paradigm is a lie because no matter what anyone thinks, BOTH sides in the Prophet archetype ONLY want their ideology to win.  They never care if there is real progress.  To say that isn't so is just untrue.  We can think one side is the villain, but the authors don't say that at all.  They wrote it isn't the ideology that's the problem but pigheaded people in general who have no facility to compromise.

^ sure, I have a hard time with that.  I think about how one side when had almost full power was able to pass a healthcare bill and a FEW other things.  But when you look at it, there really are many, many Americans who did not want that.  For me or anyone to invalidate their view as "wrong" is simply to put on the Prophet hat and get ready to rumble.  I think that is why things are not happening.

You said: The first turning, which is really not a "high," but more like a spirit-dead phase of recovery from trauma, is not going to come without first going through the gauntlett and facing the fire. There are no victory celebrations and placid conformity to the consensus until the victory has been won.

In response to that, I really really get that.... and I too have been expecting much worse to come.  However, when I put your above into my thoughts and really link up to the events that have already happened, I have to say there was a gauntlet already.  I've named them several times and they fit the models laid out by the authors.  It just has not been as extreme as I expected.  Then I think if I was expecting such an extreme thing because of paying mind to people like Alex Jones or Rush Limbaugh (2 sides of the same blow-hard diatribe).  Both of them boomers, both of them pandering to the boomer desire for a House Targaryen Fire and Blood scenario.

You say no victory celebrations and placid conformity until the victory has been won....... and while that does fit with a VJ-Day scenario where mass impregnations happened where the beginning of the boom could be denoted to even the specific day!  But what about a softer reboot?  Why does it have to be SO drastic?  Not all turnings are the same.  I am still holding onto 911+Financial Crisis=4th Turning of the 21st Century.  But I may be wrong, it has happened before Confused

You said: The track record of the american/anglo-european saeculum in avoiding major war in a 4T is not good.

I would like to hear more about this.  Is there a model of this within the saeculum history?  Like I said, I'm aware a Hero archetype was skipped after the American Civil War, but has there ever been a skipping of a whole cycle?  Perhaps user MikeBert has information -- they had expanded on past cycles well.

You said: 4Ts are not times of compromise. The battle has barely been joined in this one yet. So there's no prospect at all of a first turning starting soon.

This is where I think it comes down to interpretation of the model.  Nothing happens in one day.  We do not simply wake up into a new turning.  I don't think that can ever rarely happen.  It does not become that suddenly there is compromise where there was not.  Or suddenly Boomers die en masse and that solves things.  It is all fluid.  At this point we are debating between 5 or 10 years away.  But I'd like to know exactly what indicators you base the 4th Turning on. 

For me, the 2 main indicators from the authors are 1) a societal shift where outside institutions are transformed and the culture is dramatically different from what it was previously.  911 changed many, many things.  Kids born after do not know you used to be able to wander in and out of the airport waiting for your family to arrive or leave.  They don't know a time when torture of international prisoners or blank zones like Guantanamo was commonplace.  They do not know a time when you can vanish in the middle of the night for being a Muslim and/or speaking your mind could be interpreted in a way that could bring you to jail for observation.  We had several wars which transformed places like Iraq and forged new political friends or enemies.  America became globally despised.  Ties with other nations were ruined. On and on.

2) The same children do not/have not known an America where their parents or family were not (generally) struggling to make ends meet OR homeless OR having to move in with relatives OR not being able to exist on their own without family help OR generally.......... they do not know what it is like to NOT be in a Crisis.  This same facet is an indicator of 4th Turning  when the authors said wealth would evaporate at a moment's notice.  Back in the late 80s, I recall specifically Tom Brokaw calling it "The Fleecing of America".  So, it happens with both even-numbered turning - and much harsher in the 4th.  I say again, do we truly realize how devastating the 2008 thing was?  I was out of work for a long while.  I struggled and had to rely on others.  I know people who lost property (multiple properties) and this was unthinkable.  People being forced to take roomates and live with cousins, those who lived somewhat "posh" lives on the California coast who became as vagrants wandering from one rental unit to the next with their families and ended up dying IN MONTANA or IDAHO.  Does anyone remember the BED BUG crisis on the east coast and south in around 2012??  From the displaced thousands who were cast out and staying in motels? 

All of this, and we are expecting more Crisis?  All I can say is I hope you are wrong.  WHEN does the upswing start?  When we say "2028" what does that look like?  Are people suddenly cooperating on that date?  Where is the time for transition?  If we say 2028, there will be ARTIST archetypes already starting families and in the workforce, Nomads will almost be out of the game in every respect.  It seems really late to me.

I've said rump is an aberration.  The neocon cloud cannot assume power.  Why?  Not because I said NO but because there just isn't more time for that nonsense.  People are saying the whole calamity will culminate with Iran and mid-east / Persian war.  I can buy that based on what I see in the news lately.  But when I consider the saeculum model, there just isn't more time for that.  If you think there is, please discuss what that looks like to you.  What do you see being the last calamity(s) for this 4th Turning?  People like Pelosi and Feinstein are being openly accused of being too old to seek another term.  I see the changes coming already.  Those kids in Florida -- Heroes and Artists (who are in the model supposed to be helpmates) are already of voting age and they are armed with networks and technology with one voice.  They will not ALLOW the government to put them in harm's way over assault weapons coming into their schools anymore.  Their voices can only be expanded upon to read a sea-change in MOOD.  I view that mood as having already changed.  It seems you are saying it can only change after the Crisis.  Well, I am proposing maybe the Crisis has already come and went.
Reply
#30
(05-24-2018, 12:50 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 03:25 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: It's good to see your comments on the forum, Nomad.

We are where we are, as I see it, because the wrong decisions have been made for too long. In the end, it is not about ideology. It is about what works best for the people. Right now people in the USA are polarized. Many people on the right and some on the left are dedicated to their ideology and don't see the real needs. Compromise has just not been possible. The first turning, which is really not a "high," but more like a spirit-dead phase of recovery from trauma, is not going to come without first going through the gauntlett and facing the fire. There are no victory celebrations and placid conformity to the consensus until the victory has been won.

The track record of the american/anglo-european saeculum in avoiding major war in a 4T is not good. I hope it will not be a holocaust; I don't think it needs to be. But the issues like climate change and the lack of opportunities for many people will not wait. If those who want to take action can't break the stalemate and act on the real issues, and defeat the opposition, then the problems will just get worse and there will be no first turning. It can only come after some real action has been taken and the opponents to action have been defeated. Defeat for the stand pat opponents, the Republicans, will be best if it is defeat at the ballot box. But if it doesn't happen, bullets will fly, and the outcome may not be good. We do have a good track record of victory in 4Ts; the progressive side has always won the war and we have moved forward; not solving all the problems, but solving enough of them so that we can move forward as a nation and not fall into decline and decay. The left/right paradigm is definitely not a lie, but at bottom it is about solving real problems, not just about whose ideology wins. And it's in 4Ts that the victors are able to make real change and get things done, not in 1Ts. A first turning will just see continuation of what is started in the 4T. The way to get through the 4T and into a 1T, is to face the need for the battle and get involved.

4Ts are not times of compromise. The battle has barely been joined in this one yet. So there's no prospect at all of a first turning starting soon. It won't start until 2028 at the earliest, and even then, the first turning will still see more controversy and activism than the previous one did, along with more consensus than in the 4T. And then a second turning will follow in the late 2040s, bringing today's issues to a climax and fulfillment of purpose.

Thanks, this was a good post.  Forgive, I am slightly ornery just now from being sick.

I do not think there has been a history of a 1st turning not happening.  From the authors' perspective, the only thing ever skipped was a Hero archetype after the Civil War.  O but wait... does that mean 1st turning High was skipped?  I haven't been able to understand that one.

I say right/left paradigm is a lie because no matter what anyone thinks, BOTH sides in the Prophet archetype ONLY want their ideology to win.  They never care if there is real progress.  To say that isn't so is just untrue.  We can think one side is the villain, but the authors don't say that at all.  They wrote it isn't the ideology that's the problem but pigheaded people in general who have no facility to compromise.

^ sure, I have a hard time with that.  I think about how one side when had almost full power was able to pass a healthcare bill and a FEW other things.  But when you look at it, there really are many, many Americans who did not want that.  For me or anyone to invalidate their view as "wrong" is simply to put on the Prophet hat and get ready to rumble.  I think that is why things are not happening.

You said: The first turning, which is really not a "high," but more like a spirit-dead phase of recovery from trauma, is not going to come without first going through the gauntlett and facing the fire. There are no victory celebrations and placid conformity to the consensus until the victory has been won.

In response to that, I really really get that.... and I too have been expecting much worse to come.  However, when I put your above into my thoughts and really link up to the events that have already happened, I have to say there was a gauntlet already.  I've named them several times and they fit the models laid out by the authors.  It just has not been as extreme as I expected.  Then I think if I was expecting such an extreme thing because of paying mind to people like Alex Jones or Rush Limbaugh (2 sides of the same blow-hard diatribe).  Both of them boomers, both of them pandering to the boomer desire for a House Targaryen Fire and Blood scenario.

You say no victory celebrations and placid conformity until the victory has been won....... and while that does fit with a VJ-Day scenario where mass impregnations happened where the beginning of the boom could be denoted to even the specific day!  But what about a softer reboot?  Why does it have to be SO drastic?  Not all turnings are the same.  I am still holding onto 911+Financial Crisis=4th Turning of the 21st Century.  But I may be wrong, it has happened before Confused

You said: The track record of the american/anglo-european saeculum in avoiding major war in a 4T is not good.

I would like to hear more about this.  Is there a model of this within the saeculum history?  Like I said, I'm aware a Hero archetype was skipped after the American Civil War, but has there ever been a skipping of a whole cycle?  Perhaps user MikeBert has information -- they had expanded on past cycles well.

You said: 4Ts are not times of compromise. The battle has barely been joined in this one yet. So there's no prospect at all of a first turning starting soon.

This is where I think it comes down to interpretation of the model.  Nothing happens in one day.  We do not simply wake up into a new turning.  I don't think that can ever rarely happen.  It does not become that suddenly there is compromise where there was not.  Or suddenly Boomers die en masse and that solves things.  It is all fluid.  At this point we are debating between 5 or 10 years away.  But I'd like to know exactly what indicators you base the 4th Turning on. 

For me, the 2 main indicators from the authors are 1) a societal shift where outside institutions are transformed and the culture is dramatically different from what it was previously.  911 changed many, many things.  Kids born after do not know you used to be able to wander in and out of the airport waiting for your family to arrive or leave.  They don't know a time when torture of international prisoners or blank zones like Guantanamo was commonplace.  They do not know a time when you can vanish in the middle of the night for being a Muslim and/or speaking your mind could be interpreted in a way that could bring you to jail for observation.  We had several wars which transformed places like Iraq and forged new political friends or enemies.  America became globally despised.  Ties with other nations were ruined. On and on.

2) The same children do not/have not known an America where their parents or family were not (generally) struggling to make ends meet OR homeless OR having to move in with relatives OR not being able to exist on their own without family help OR generally.......... they do not know what it is like to NOT be in a Crisis.  This same facet is an indicator of 4th Turning  when the authors said wealth would evaporate at a moment's notice.  Back in the late 80s, I recall specifically Tom Brokaw calling it "The Fleecing of America".  So, it happens with both even-numbered turning - and much harsher in the 4th.  I say again, do we truly realize how devastating the 2008 thing was?  I was out of work for a long while.  I struggled and had to rely on others.  I know people who lost property (multiple properties) and this was unthinkable.  People being forced to take roomates and live with cousins, those who lived somewhat "posh" lives on the California coast who became as vagrants wandering from one rental unit to the next with their families and ended up dying IN MONTANA or IDAHO.  Does anyone remember the BED BUG crisis on the east coast and south in around 2012??  From the displaced thousands who were cast out and staying in motels? 

All of this, and we are expecting more Crisis?  All I can say is I hope you are wrong.  WHEN does the upswing start?  When we say "2028" what does that look like?  Are people suddenly cooperating on that date?  Where is the time for transition?  If we say 2028, there will be ARTIST archetypes already starting families and in the workforce, Nomads will almost be out of the game in every respect.  It seems really late to me.

I've said rump is an aberration.  The neocon cloud cannot assume power.  Why?  Not because I said NO but because there just isn't more time for that nonsense.  People are saying the whole calamity will culminate with Iran and mid-east / Persian war.  I can buy that based on what I see in the news lately.  But when I consider the saeculum model, there just isn't more time for that.  If you think there is, please discuss what that looks like to you.  What do you see being the last calamity(s) for this 4th Turning?  People like Pelosi and Feinstein are being openly accused of being too old to seek another term.  I see the changes coming already.  Those kids in Florida -- Heroes and Artists (who are in the model supposed to be helpmates) are already of voting age and they are armed with networks and technology with one voice.  They will not ALLOW the government to put them in harm's way over assault weapons coming into their schools anymore.  Their voices can only be expanded upon to read a sea-change in MOOD.  I view that mood as having already changed.  It seems you are saying it can only change after the Crisis.  Well, I am proposing maybe the Crisis has already come and went.

You will certainly be disappointed if you expect the 1T to begin before 2028. There is no real basis to assume that the 4T started any earlier than 2008, since 9-11 did NOT change America in the way you say. It was business as usual at home, as we were told to go shopping, and war was limited to some stupid MIC invasions in which most Americans did not materially participate. And given the slow pace of the needed domestic change until now, making our age almost an exact repeat of the 1850s, there is no basis to assume that the real crunch time isn't still ahead. We have not come to terms at all yet with the issues that threaten our nation. How could we enter a 1T then, that would be any different from a prolonged 4T?

The change in mood you mention above is exactly what I see too. That is a willingness among young people to stop with the apathy, and push for change. They are ready to rumble; to "fight for our lives" and "rev up the engines" (quote from Ryan Deitsch, Parkland student). This is definitely 4T stuff, because the resistance is still very strong too. It is highly likely to be the main issue that causes a civil war, secession and/or a rebellion by reactionaries on some scale. The economic problems you mention are exactly correct, and more fuel for the fire, because nothing has been done to change them. The steadfast resistance by the wealthy and powerful Republican corporate establishment continues, in order to keep the people poor and struggling. Their "freedom caucus" forestalls any action at all. Given these facts, change is going to ramp up; bet on it. 10 years of 4T rumbling is plenty of time for lots of conflict to occur. Why would you not see that? If there's good news from me, it is that the worst of the economic crisis happened already starting in 2008. I expect a fear-arousing recession next year, but if anything, the 2020s will be boom times. The crisis will be political and cultural, centering on guns, climate change, and the economic inequality and free-market nonsense that keeps most people struggling and endangered despite a recovering economy.

It looks like to me that by the mid-2020s, there could be domestic and foreign war at once. The bright side is that I expect both to be less severe than previous saecula. But the terrorist threat still exists, and the American MIC still exists. Drump is not necessarily an aberration. He is the climax of reactionary trends that have developed over the last 40 years. He has instituted trickle-down economics on steroids, and stirred up the race war on top of that. His foreign policy of bullying others will not work, and will keep the conflicts bubbling. Due to my own cosmic sources however, I think we will emerge from his term without the USA itself actually going into a major war. That is because of the war cycle that I see. The USA is war weary at the moment, but by 2025 I see the USA engaging abroad again.

2028 is right on time for the next 1T to start, unless it is postponed further. There will still be plenty of boomer leaders around, since there are still plenty of Silents around during this 4T even half way in. The nomads will still be the largest leadership group, with millennials starting to take over. At the end of the last 4T, early-cohort artist-archetype Silents were already involved in the war. That is nothing new. The saeculum is 82+ years, not 70-something. 1946 + 82 = 2028.

I think the entry into the 1T will be less sudden than it was after the clear victory in 1945. Even then, there were lots of strikes in 1946, so that tranquility was still not so clear-cut. There was anti-communist hysteria too. But it was farily decisive. I expect the transition to take a year, and even then, lots of activism will continue. But it won't seriously threaten or disrupt the system after 2029, and needed changes started in the 4T will continue, along with more tech progress than we have seen since the 1960s. Be sure and not speak of the 1T as in any sense a ramping up though. It is a slowing down. After the 4T, the mood is more conservative than during the 4T climax. Expect most big changes to happen in the 2020s.

I mentioned that major war usually happens in the 4T. The weakest 4T war was the Armada Crisis; that was brief and easily won. All other 4Ts involved long, deadly, grueling total wars: the Wars of the Roses, King William's War, the Revolution, Civil War and World War Two. My hope is that, like in Elizabethan times, we are in a Renaissance period of upswing in civilization, so that the conflict may look more like the Armada Crisis. The reason a first turning has always happened, is because victory for the progressive side happened. If it doesn't happen this time, such a first turning as we get will be nothing but a severe, prolonged decline with the people disillusioned and unable to act. It could happen, if as people say the USA has reached its peak and is now going to decline. I still have hope that the progressives will win and thus we will enter a first turning and continue to progress, because we are in a Renaissance stage in the cycle of civilization.

This is where I disagree with you: "I say right/left paradigm is a lie because no matter what anyone thinks, BOTH sides in the Prophet archetype ONLY want their ideology to win. They never care if there is real progress. To say that isn't so is just untrue. We can think one side is the villain, but the authors don't say that at all. They wrote it isn't the ideology that's the problem but pigheaded people in general who have no facility to compromise.

^ sure, I have a hard time with that. I think about how one side when had almost full power was able to pass a healthcare bill and a FEW other things. But when you look at it, there really are many, many Americans who did not want that. For me or anyone to invalidate their view as "wrong" is simply to put on the Prophet hat and get ready to rumble. I think that is why things are not happening."

Boomers are prophet archetypes, and prophets are a divided generation. It is divided now between blue and red. The blue side cares about real progress, which the Affordable Care Act was an example of. No, we want real progress; that's why we support health care reform. The people and even business wanted it, but the red side stirs up opposition with their trickle-down free market rigid ideology. THAT is exactly what needs to be defeated. The Paul Ryans and Donald Trumps must go. Only if free market economics is defeated, can we progress. Compromise is not 4T, according to the authors; it is 3T, and it fails. Prophets and Xers too may be pig-headed, but the authors state that one side DOES win, led by a prophet group of gray champions. They are champions because they fight the obstruction and win. Don't knock the prophet archetype; it is part of the cycle. 4Ts are times for heroism and victory, not meek compromise with evil. Do not be deceived about the nature of today's opposition to progress. The red side is evil, and must be defeated. The way around that is not for Democrats to keep compromising and aping the ways of the Reaganoids. Not at all. The way around this is to mobilize and break through the 40-year stalemate with a victory for progress. The "rumble" IS what's happening. Compromise with people who don't want any change, so that nothing changes, is not the way to have things "happening." There is NO way around this. The only way forward is to bust our way through. Compromise is possible among today's "moderates" and many (but not all) leftists, but NOT with the dedicated obstructionists (who are not just prophets, but even more now composed of nomads). Either you are on the side of progress, or not. Which will it be, Sir Nomad?
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
#31
You've seen this video, I take it?





And these:

https://youtu.be/KAyLYB81zJY (Matt Post)

https://youtu.be/s7L1jFog8zE (Cameron Kasky)

https://youtu.be/9t2HOBhyjOI (David Hogg)

They are ready to rumble. And so are other activists on other issues. As Cameron says, it is a ten-year process before we get progress that we want. It's going to take some will to change this, says Matt. It won't be easy to change things. The immoral, the obstructionists and the complicit are already lining up to block our path. It's going to take some courage.

This does not sound like a 1T, in which people settle back and go along with the crowd. The Macy's Day balloons are not out there.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
#32
BTW fresh indicators of a turning/mood shift:

House Democrats Offer Internship For Students Affected By Gun Violence
"It's Important that we learn from their experience"


This may be a direct lift from the S&H text.  When everyone starts cuddling the new Heroes and deciding they need to learn from them!  Unlike my Nomads where we are full of shit until our last breath. Smile
Reply
#33
(05-24-2018, 01:43 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 12:50 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 03:25 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: It's good to see your comments on the forum, Nomad.

We are where we are, as I see it, because the wrong decisions have been made for too long. In the end, it is not about ideology. It is about what works best for the people. Right now people in the USA are polarized. Many people on the right and some on the left are dedicated to their ideology and don't see the real needs. Compromise has just not been possible. The first turning, which is really not a "high," but more like a spirit-dead phase of recovery from trauma, is not going to come without first going through the gauntlett and facing the fire. There are no victory celebrations and placid conformity to the consensus until the victory has been won.

The track record of the american/anglo-european saeculum in avoiding major war in a 4T is not good. I hope it will not be a holocaust; I don't think it needs to be. But the issues like climate change and the lack of opportunities for many people will not wait. If those who want to take action can't break the stalemate and act on the real issues, and defeat the opposition, then the problems will just get worse and there will be no first turning. It can only come after some real action has been taken and the opponents to action have been defeated. Defeat for the stand pat opponents, the Republicans, will be best if it is defeat at the ballot box. But if it doesn't happen, bullets will fly, and the outcome may not be good. We do have a good track record of victory in 4Ts; the progressive side has always won the war and we have moved forward; not solving all the problems, but solving enough of them so that we can move forward as a nation and not fall into decline and decay. The left/right paradigm is definitely not a lie, but at bottom it is about solving real problems, not just about whose ideology wins. And it's in 4Ts that the victors are able to make real change and get things done, not in 1Ts. A first turning will just see continuation of what is started in the 4T. The way to get through the 4T and into a 1T, is to face the need for the battle and get involved.

4Ts are not times of compromise. The battle has barely been joined in this one yet. So there's no prospect at all of a first turning starting soon. It won't start until 2028 at the earliest, and even then, the first turning will still see more controversy and activism than the previous one did, along with more consensus than in the 4T. And then a second turning will follow in the late 2040s, bringing today's issues to a climax and fulfillment of purpose.

Thanks, this was a good post.  Forgive, I am slightly ornery just now from being sick.

I do not think there has been a history of a 1st turning not happening.  From the authors' perspective, the only thing ever skipped was a Hero archetype after the Civil War.  O but wait... does that mean 1st turning High was skipped?  I haven't been able to understand that one.

I say right/left paradigm is a lie because no matter what anyone thinks, BOTH sides in the Prophet archetype ONLY want their ideology to win.  They never care if there is real progress.  To say that isn't so is just untrue.  We can think one side is the villain, but the authors don't say that at all.  They wrote it isn't the ideology that's the problem but pigheaded people in general who have no facility to compromise.

^ sure, I have a hard time with that.  I think about how one side when had almost full power was able to pass a healthcare bill and a FEW other things.  But when you look at it, there really are many, many Americans who did not want that.  For me or anyone to invalidate their view as "wrong" is simply to put on the Prophet hat and get ready to rumble.  I think that is why things are not happening.

You said: The first turning, which is really not a "high," but more like a spirit-dead phase of recovery from trauma, is not going to come without first going through the gauntlett and facing the fire. There are no victory celebrations and placid conformity to the consensus until the victory has been won.

In response to that, I really really get that.... and I too have been expecting much worse to come.  However, when I put your above into my thoughts and really link up to the events that have already happened, I have to say there was a gauntlet already.  I've named them several times and they fit the models laid out by the authors.  It just has not been as extreme as I expected.  Then I think if I was expecting such an extreme thing because of paying mind to people like Alex Jones or Rush Limbaugh (2 sides of the same blow-hard diatribe).  Both of them boomers, both of them pandering to the boomer desire for a House Targaryen Fire and Blood scenario.

You say no victory celebrations and placid conformity until the victory has been won....... and while that does fit with a VJ-Day scenario where mass impregnations happened where the beginning of the boom could be denoted to even the specific day!  But what about a softer reboot?  Why does it have to be SO drastic?  Not all turnings are the same.  I am still holding onto 911+Financial Crisis=4th Turning of the 21st Century.  But I may be wrong, it has happened before Confused

You said: The track record of the american/anglo-european saeculum in avoiding major war in a 4T is not good.

I would like to hear more about this.  Is there a model of this within the saeculum history?  Like I said, I'm aware a Hero archetype was skipped after the American Civil War, but has there ever been a skipping of a whole cycle?  Perhaps user MikeBert has information -- they had expanded on past cycles well.

You said: 4Ts are not times of compromise. The battle has barely been joined in this one yet. So there's no prospect at all of a first turning starting soon.

This is where I think it comes down to interpretation of the model.  Nothing happens in one day.  We do not simply wake up into a new turning.  I don't think that can ever rarely happen.  It does not become that suddenly there is compromise where there was not.  Or suddenly Boomers die en masse and that solves things.  It is all fluid.  At this point we are debating between 5 or 10 years away.  But I'd like to know exactly what indicators you base the 4th Turning on. 

For me, the 2 main indicators from the authors are 1) a societal shift where outside institutions are transformed and the culture is dramatically different from what it was previously.  911 changed many, many things.  Kids born after do not know you used to be able to wander in and out of the airport waiting for your family to arrive or leave.  They don't know a time when torture of international prisoners or blank zones like Guantanamo was commonplace.  They do not know a time when you can vanish in the middle of the night for being a Muslim and/or speaking your mind could be interpreted in a way that could bring you to jail for observation.  We had several wars which transformed places like Iraq and forged new political friends or enemies.  America became globally despised.  Ties with other nations were ruined. On and on.

2) The same children do not/have not known an America where their parents or family were not (generally) struggling to make ends meet OR homeless OR having to move in with relatives OR not being able to exist on their own without family help OR generally.......... they do not know what it is like to NOT be in a Crisis.  This same facet is an indicator of 4th Turning  when the authors said wealth would evaporate at a moment's notice.  Back in the late 80s, I recall specifically Tom Brokaw calling it "The Fleecing of America".  So, it happens with both even-numbered turning - and much harsher in the 4th.  I say again, do we truly realize how devastating the 2008 thing was?  I was out of work for a long while.  I struggled and had to rely on others.  I know people who lost property (multiple properties) and this was unthinkable.  People being forced to take roomates and live with cousins, those who lived somewhat "posh" lives on the California coast who became as vagrants wandering from one rental unit to the next with their families and ended up dying IN MONTANA or IDAHO.  Does anyone remember the BED BUG crisis on the east coast and south in around 2012??  From the displaced thousands who were cast out and staying in motels? 

All of this, and we are expecting more Crisis?  All I can say is I hope you are wrong.  WHEN does the upswing start?  When we say "2028" what does that look like?  Are people suddenly cooperating on that date?  Where is the time for transition?  If we say 2028, there will be ARTIST archetypes already starting families and in the workforce, Nomads will almost be out of the game in every respect.  It seems really late to me.

I've said rump is an aberration.  The neocon cloud cannot assume power.  Why?  Not because I said NO but because there just isn't more time for that nonsense.  People are saying the whole calamity will culminate with Iran and mid-east / Persian war.  I can buy that based on what I see in the news lately.  But when I consider the saeculum model, there just isn't more time for that.  If you think there is, please discuss what that looks like to you.  What do you see being the last calamity(s) for this 4th Turning?  People like Pelosi and Feinstein are being openly accused of being too old to seek another term.  I see the changes coming already.  Those kids in Florida -- Heroes and Artists (who are in the model supposed to be helpmates) are already of voting age and they are armed with networks and technology with one voice.  They will not ALLOW the government to put them in harm's way over assault weapons coming into their schools anymore.  Their voices can only be expanded upon to read a sea-change in MOOD.  I view that mood as having already changed.  It seems you are saying it can only change after the Crisis.  Well, I am proposing maybe the Crisis has already come and went.

You will certainly be disappointed if you expect the 1T to begin before 2028. There is no real basis to assume that the 4T started any earlier than 2008, since 9-11 did NOT change America in the way you say. It was business as usual at home, as we were told to go shopping, and war was limited to some stupid MIC invasions in which most Americans did not materially participate. And given the slow pace of the needed domestic change until now, making our age almost an exact repeat of the 1850s, there is no basis to assume that the real crunch time isn't still ahead. We have not come to terms at all yet with the issues that threaten our nation. How could we enter a 1T then, that would be any different from a prolonged 4T?

The change in mood you mention above is exactly what I see too. That is a willingness among young people to stop with the apathy, and push for change. They are ready to rumble; to "fight for our lives" and "rev up the engines" (quote from Ryan Deitsch, Parkland student). This is definitely 4T stuff, because the resistance is still very strong too. It is highly likely to be the main issue that causes a civil war, secession and/or a rebellion by reactionaries on some scale. The economic problems you mention are exactly correct, and more fuel for the fire, because nothing has been done to change them. The steadfast resistance by the wealthy and powerful Republican corporate establishment continues, in order to keep the people poor and struggling. Their "freedom caucus" forestalls any action at all. Given these facts, change is going to ramp up; bet on it. 10 years of 4T rumbling is plenty of time for lots of conflict to occur. Why would you not see that? If there's good news from me, it is that the worst of the economic crisis happened already starting in 2008. I expect a fear-arousing recession next year, but if anything, the 2020s will be boom times. The crisis will be political and cultural, centering on guns, climate change, and the economic inequality and free-market nonsense that keeps most people struggling and endangered despite a recovering economy.

It looks like to me that by the mid-2020s, there could be domestic and foreign war at once. The bright side is that I expect both to be less severe than previous saecula. But the terrorist threat still exists, and the American MIC still exists. Drump is not necessarily an aberration. He is the climax of reactionary trends that have developed over the last 40 years. He has instituted trickle-down economics on steroids, and stirred up the race war on top of that. His foreign policy of bullying others will not work, and will keep the conflicts bubbling. Due to my own cosmic sources however, I think we will emerge from his term without the USA itself actually going into a major war. That is because of the war cycle that I see. The USA is war weary at the moment, but by 2025 I see the USA engaging abroad again.

2028 is right on time for the next 1T to start, unless it is postponed further. There will still be plenty of boomer leaders around, since there are still plenty of Silents around during this 4T even half way in. The nomads will still be the largest leadership group, with millennials starting to take over. At the end of the last 4T, early-cohort artist-archetype Silents were already involved in the war. That is nothing new. The saeculum is 82+ years, not 70-something. 1946 + 82 = 2028.

I think the entry into the 1T will be less sudden than it was after the clear victory in 1945. Even then, there were lots of strikes in 1946, so that tranquility was still not so clear-cut. There was anti-communist hysteria too. But it was farily decisive. I expect the transition to take a year, and even then, lots of activism will continue. But it won't seriously threaten or disrupt the system after 2029, and needed changes started in the 4T will continue, along with more tech progress than we have seen since the 1960s. Be sure and not speak of the 1T as in any sense a ramping up though. It is a slowing down. After the 4T, the mood is more conservative than during the 4T climax. Expect most big changes to happen in the 2020s.

I mentioned that major war usually happens in the 4T. The weakest 4T war was the Armada Crisis; that was brief and easily won. All other 4Ts involved long, deadly, grueling total wars: the Wars of the Roses, King William's War, the Revolution, Civil War and World War Two. My hope is that, like in Elizabethan times, we are in a Renaissance period of upswing in civilization, so that the conflict may look more like the Armada Crisis. The reason a first turning has always happened, is because victory for the progressive side happened. If it doesn't happen this time, such a first turning as we get will be nothing but a severe, prolonged decline with the people disillusioned and unable to act. It could happen, if as people say the USA has reached its peak and is now going to decline. I still have hope that the progressives will win and thus we will enter a first turning and continue to progress, because we are in a Renaissance stage in the cycle of civilization.

This is where I disagree with you: "I say right/left paradigm is a lie because no matter what anyone thinks, BOTH sides in the Prophet archetype ONLY want their ideology to win.  They never care if there is real progress.  To say that isn't so is just untrue.  We can think one side is the villain, but the authors don't say that at all.  They wrote it isn't the ideology that's the problem but pigheaded people in general who have no facility to compromise.

^ sure, I have a hard time with that.  I think about how one side when had almost full power was able to pass a healthcare bill and a FEW other things.  But when you look at it, there really are many, many Americans who did not want that.  For me or anyone to invalidate their view as "wrong" is simply to put on the Prophet hat and get ready to rumble.  I think that is why things are not happening."

Boomers are prophet archetypes, and prophets are a divided generation. It is divided now between blue and red. The blue side cares about real progress, which the Affordable Care Act was an example of. No, we want real progress; that's why we support health care reform. The people and even business wanted it, but the red side stirs up opposition with their trickle-down free market rigid ideology. THAT is exactly what needs to be defeated. The Paul Ryans and Donald Trumps must go. Only if free market economics is defeated, can we progress. Compromise is not 4T, according to the authors; it is 3T, and it fails. Prophets and Xers too may be pig-headed, but the authors state that one side DOES win, led by a prophet group of gray champions. They are champions because they fight the obstruction and win. Don't knock the prophet archetype; it is part of the cycle. 4Ts are times for heroism and victory, not meek compromise with evil. Do not be deceived about the nature of today's opposition to progress. The red side is evil, and must be defeated. The way around that is not for Democrats to keep compromising and aping the ways of the Reaganoids. Not at all. The way around this is to mobilize and break through the 40-year stalemate with a victory for progress. The "rumble" IS what's happening. Compromise with people who don't want any change, so that nothing changes, is not the way to have things "happening." There is NO way around this. The only way forward is to bust our way through. Compromise is possible among today's "moderates" and many (but not all) leftists, but NOT with the dedicated obstructionists (who are not just prophets, but even more now composed of nomads). Either you are on the side of progress, or not. Which will it be, Sir Nomad?

Much of what you say makes total sense.  I always have seen the notion of "dealing with our problems" as the initial phase of the 1st Turning or LATE in the 4th.  You say there will be a boom in the next few years, but you also say a recession next year?  The transition period from Crisis to High takes time.  Like I said it doesn't happen immediately.  Or how rump is the culmination of boomer nonsense, sure.  But I do not see him lasting past the next full election.  And I see his influence wasting away at the end of this year with the elections of lower stature. 

There are lots of things you said to go word for word, but not necessary.  I think we are not far apart.  Even though you call certain people "evil" (while I agree, I am teaching myself not to do that because it's unproductive to the conversation).  BTW when the CNN Hall happened and those people vilified the NRA woman, I felt that was unproductive and was a product of the PARENTS in the crowd more than the youngers.  Those young people do not think that way except for the bombastic ones who stir up the others.  I've noticed I have parts of each archetype in my attitude (so does everyone) and to survive and thrive in the present and future we have to choose to erase that rhetoric.

I agree democrats/left will begin to dominate and stay for a long period of time.  Starting when?  I think it will be sooner than people realize.   I was surprised when it became clear the ARTISTS are even coming of age to vote at 18.  That means ALL Heroes are able to vote now and Artists only are their "helpmate" and will bring this wave I am talking about.  I think when I meditated on that, it forced me to re-examine my thought of the generational model as to where it is now.

4Ts are times for heroism and victory, not meek compromise with evil.

I get that.  Seriously.  However, I am selling a possible soft reboot here.  That a soft reboot is what has happened, and since we all are expecting armageddon, we maybe cannot or are unwilling to accept it wasn't as hash as we wanted it to be.

Either you are on the side of progress, or not. Which will it be, Sir Nomad?

Of course I am for progress.  I am also for really being willing to examine the generational model and make a "forecast" based on past events and trends instead of holding out for the apocalypse because I think that's the only way it can happen.

Much of your ideas are totally acceptable to me.  Some maybe are not.  911 was so long ago now and flushed from memory due to trauma, we maybe cannot remember what it was like and how much our civilization has changed.  I can only think that in 2000 I visited Boulder Dam and made a joke in a crowd that I should "leave my nuclear device outside".  Only a year later, I may have been whisked off to a secret prison to be interrogated for that one simple joke.  When, I drove into work on 911 and then was ushered by a loudspeaker out to the parking lot with hundreds of co-workers to be filmed during the national anthem.  Some friends of mine purchased flags for their car windows...................... flying tattered in the wind into ashes.  Flags on the side of their homes, people who did not agree with the war(s) were extricated to the side and labeled treasonous.  Young men and women shipped off to the slaughter in Iraq, Afghanistan and other places.  And you say "it was nothing?"  Me thinks you have forgotten how that event restructured America.  Plus, we have a whole generation of people alive now who have no idea what it was like to actually go into any airport and wait for a friend without being strip searched.  The "shoe bomber".  A WHOLE GENERATION OF PEOPLE WHO KNOW AND EXPECT THEY WILL HAVE TO REMOVE THEIR SHOES IN THE AIRPORT.  The Patriot Act.  All the rhetoric and laws that came with it which are almost unchangeable now.  We've had no terror attack since that, yet, all this nonsense remains in place.  And I know someone here will say "we haven't had an attack because of the "nonsense".  w/e

I'm asking you to consider that instead of America becoming a wasteland of humans foraging for food in a nuclear winter that maybe it is possible the reboot was not as cold as you'd maybe like it to be.  Because in all honesty, you do sound like it's a sort of fervor.  I see that in a lot of people, they once looked for biblical prophecy to tell them the End was Nigh, then when all that becomes ludicrous, we look at S&H and pick up the thread there.  And I will go so far to say that S&H are fearmongers of a sort themselves with these books.  However, I sense they did it as a marketing ploy.  I don't know who would purchase such a supposed DRY book about generations unless there was some sex factor like a fiery flaming end.
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#34
(05-24-2018, 02:35 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: You've seen this video, I take it?





And these:

https://youtu.be/KAyLYB81zJY (Matt Post)

https://youtu.be/s7L1jFog8zE (Cameron Kasky)

https://youtu.be/9t2HOBhyjOI (David Hogg)

They are ready to rumble. And so are other activists on other issues. As Cameron says, it is a ten-year process before we get progress that we want. It's going to take some will to change this, says Matt. It won't be easy to change things. The immoral, the obstructionists and the complicit are already lining up to block our path. It's going to take some courage.

This does not sound like a 1T, in which people settle back and go along with the crowd. The Macy's Day balloons are not out there.

No, this sounds like the seed of a 1st turning.... which is what the latter part of a 4th turning IS.  These people and their agendas are already in place............... they are right now of voting age and it gets larger every birthday they have within the bracket.  I am looking toward the 2018 elections as completely out of left field and people will be shocked.  And based off that, the 2020 elections will only ramp that up MORE.  We are only really debating 5 or so years.  rump has no future.  necons are about to go hibernate not culminate  (although you have made good points with this).
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#35
(05-23-2018, 08:19 PM)TheNomad Wrote: (to me) I'm trying to get more expansive as I read the text or read your post.  However, a lot of what you are saying is the same as I have been hearing for many years.  With respect it is much fearmongering and simply saying someone is awful or the politics are raw.   I've seen so much preaching of doom.  I'm trying to look at events and consensus from what I see that are indicators.

I'm not seeing you apply that mastery to the events of this Crisis and what you think they mean/meant in terms of a new arm of the Saeculum passing or coming.  You say trump must go for the crisis to end, but that's unrealistic.  In the past, there was one side of a political spectrum that pushed out the other.  But that doesn't mean a complete bonfire of everyone on a side.  They are still around.  I called trump a POSSIBLE ABERRATION in the model.  But even after reading your post and others, I feel like YES there is a resurrection of neocon that is trying to happen.  The vultures are swooping hoping to take advantage of trumps invitation.  But that doesn't mean the seachange has not already occurred.  I think the GENERAL CONSENSUS (and this is what the authors use to portray a to portray shift in cycle) the GENERAL CONSENSUS is trump is an aberration and I doubt in 2018 elections and definitely not in 2020 elections that a neocon mindset will or could prevail. 

We thought it was impossible last time.  But the current "powers" (and the general dislike of it) along with the genera consensus will become clear very soon.  But one must look beyond the current to prognosticate.  It shouldn't be about what we see now.  I think that is the whole point of the books.


Time remains for casting off those who disagree with the most dictatorial or despotic President in American history. Time might remain for establishing a regime of fear that causes people to accept an inequitable, repressive, and conformist America that deprecates any display of intelligence in use for deprecating the whims of a President who has a personality cult behind him.

I would like to see Donald Trump as an aberration and an anomaly that Americans repudiate quickly. This man can hurt people who thought that he stood for traditional values. Consider that the New Deal consensus depended heavily upon farmers who had had enough of falling commodity prices. So imagine a Democrat getting a chance to say "better honest taxes than corrupt and destructive tariffs". Tariffs are taxes, and they are grossly inequitable in their effects (they are regressive taxes om an advanced industrial society), and they badly distort the decisions that people would make in a free market.

Nothing forces political changes inconvenient to political elites as does political failure, including gross failure of economic stewardship. Until about 1930 Americans considered the economy too important for leaving to any but the experts -- the land-owning elites of the South and the industrialists and financiers of the North. Today we hold the politicians accountable for inflation, high unemployment, and hurtful taxes and tariffs.

Fear is part of the political repertory. One can question whether politicians play to appropriate fear (the North Korean dictator is crazy and he has a lust for nukes and missiles) or to fears involving not-so-legitimate concerns (some black man may want to marry and have children by your precious white daughter... or that Muslims want to take over America and establish Sharia law). Great politicians like FDR and Churchill address legitimate fears that they did not create.

We are seeing some trends that suggest 1T patterns. Exposure of sexual harassment that powerful people used to get away with is putting an end to some once-distinguished careers. Same-sex marriage is being recognized rapidly as an inevitability. Go figure what that means. This said, I do not pretend to have a crystal ball. Powerful people want certain things to happen, and they have the funds with which to promote such.  On the other hand, we are also recognizing that the idea that Donald Trump and most Republicans have of American greatness is very different from many of the rest of us.

The gun culture may have peaked. How many people must die so that we have lax laws involving guns?
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#36
(05-24-2018, 04:16 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(05-23-2018, 08:19 PM)TheNomad Wrote: (to me) I'm trying to get more expansive as I read the text or read your post.  However, a lot of what you are saying is the same as I have been hearing for many years.  With respect it is much fearmongering and simply saying someone is awful or the politics are raw.   I've seen so much preaching of doom.  I'm trying to look at events and consensus from what I see that are indicators.

I'm not seeing you apply that mastery to the events of this Crisis and what you think they mean/meant in terms of a new arm of the Saeculum passing or coming.  You say trump must go for the crisis to end, but that's unrealistic.  In the past, there was one side of a political spectrum that pushed out the other.  But that doesn't mean a complete bonfire of everyone on a side.  They are still around.  I called trump a POSSIBLE ABERRATION in the model.  But even after reading your post and others, I feel like YES there is a resurrection of neocon that is trying to happen.  The vultures are swooping hoping to take advantage of trumps invitation.  But that doesn't mean the seachange has not already occurred.  I think the GENERAL CONSENSUS (and this is what the authors use to portray a to portray shift in cycle) the GENERAL CONSENSUS is trump is an aberration and I doubt in 2018 elections and definitely not in 2020 elections that a neocon mindset will or could prevail. 

We thought it was impossible last time.  But the current "powers" (and the general dislike of it) along with the genera consensus will become clear very soon.  But one must look beyond the current to prognosticate.  It shouldn't be about what we see now.  I think that is the whole point of the books.


Time remains for casting off those who disagree with the most dictatorial or despotic President in American history. Time might remain for establishing a regime of fear that causes people to accept an inequitable, repressive, and conformist America that deprecates any display of intelligence in use for deprecating the whims of a President who has a personality cult behind him.

I would like to see Donald Trump as an aberration and an anomaly that Americans repudiate quickly. This man can hurt people who thought that he stood for traditional values. Consider that the New Deal consensus depended heavily upon farmers who had had enough of falling commodity prices. So imagine a Democrat getting a chance to say "better honest taxes than corrupt and destructive tariffs". Tariffs are taxes, and they are grossly inequitable in their effects (they are regressive taxes om an advanced industrial society), and they badly distort the decisions that people would make in a free market.

Nothing forces political changes inconvenient to political elites as does political failure, including gross failure of economic stewardship. Until about 1930 Americans considered the economy too important for leaving to any but the experts -- the land-owning elites of the South and the industrialists and financiers of the North. Today we hold the politicians accountable for inflation, high unemployment, and hurtful taxes and tariffs.

Fear is part of the political repertory. One can question whether politicians play to appropriate fear (the North Korean dictator is crazy and he has a lust for nukes and missiles) or to fears involving not-so-legitimate concerns (some black man may want to marry and have children by your precious white daughter... or that Muslims want to take over America and establish Sharia law). Great politicians like FDR and Churchill address legitimate fears that they did not create.

We are seeing some trends that suggest 1T patterns. Exposure of sexual harassment that powerful people used to get away with is putting an end to some once-distinguished careers. Same-sex marriage is being recognized rapidly as an inevitability. Go figure what that means. This said, I do not pretend to have a crystal ball. Powerful people want certain things to happen, and they have the funds with which to promote such.  On the other hand, we are also recognizing that the idea that Donald Trump and most Republicans have of American greatness is very different from many of the rest of us.

The gun culture may have peaked. How many people must die so that we have lax laws involving guns?

Good points... rump was co-opted by republicans.  Meaning, they didn't even have anything to offer in their own ranks, they had to turn outwardly.  So, when you say defeat, this HAS to be obvious now.  I've read interviews and paid attention, that side of the aisle is all but openly acknowledging defeat and they know it is going to last a long time. 

Your arguments are good ones.  The whole idea people are just not buying the Sharia Law thing and women are not having predators anymore, race culture (as much of this stuff) is flipped lopsided to the OTHER side.  Every moment there are twitterisms ridiculing rump and his ways.... and I don't think many people disagree from any side, along with fomenting the other stuff I mentioned and more.  BTW TWITTER must be a real boner with someone like Howe who is still dealing with the models himself, twitter sucks in my opinion... it is ONLY a flock of birds making noise, but it is a massive method of gauging "the room" so-to-speak on present MOOD.

Yes, also gun culture.  It would be unheard of even 5 years ago that assault weapons might be on the table.  UNHEARD OF.  But people are not having it anymore.  I refer back to myself and how no one really cared when my generation suffered gunman in schools or beatdown kids coming in with a gun because they had been completely dehumanized by the culture of evil in schools (how they treat each other) but then when it still continued with Heroes, suddenly there are "crisis counselors" and they idea that we must hurry to protect the children because NOW they matter.  I'm still overwhelmed by the authors' spot on description of the archetypes.
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#37
(05-23-2018, 08:19 PM)TheNomad Wrote: You say trump must go for the crisis to end, but that's unrealistic.  
How is this unrealistic? G.W.H Bush served only a single term, so did Carter, the last disjunctive president. In fact, given that Hoover was the disjunctive president before Carter, one can make the case that we are perhaps due for another (1928...1976...2016?).

Quote:In the past, there was one side of a political spectrum that pushed out the other.  But that doesn't mean a complete bonfire of everyone on a side.
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#38
(05-24-2018, 03:48 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 01:43 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 12:50 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 03:25 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: It's good to see your comments on the forum, Nomad.

We are where we are, as I see it, because the wrong decisions have been made for too long. In the end, it is not about ideology. It is about what works best for the people. Right now people in the USA are polarized. Many people on the right and some on the left are dedicated to their ideology and don't see the real needs. Compromise has just not been possible. The first turning, which is really not a "high," but more like a spirit-dead phase of recovery from trauma, is not going to come without first going through the gauntlett and facing the fire. There are no victory celebrations and placid conformity to the consensus until the victory has been won.

The track record of the american/anglo-european saeculum in avoiding major war in a 4T is not good. I hope it will not be a holocaust; I don't think it needs to be. But the issues like climate change and the lack of opportunities for many people will not wait. If those who want to take action can't break the stalemate and act on the real issues, and defeat the opposition, then the problems will just get worse and there will be no first turning. It can only come after some real action has been taken and the opponents to action have been defeated. Defeat for the stand pat opponents, the Republicans, will be best if it is defeat at the ballot box. But if it doesn't happen, bullets will fly, and the outcome may not be good. We do have a good track record of victory in 4Ts; the progressive side has always won the war and we have moved forward; not solving all the problems, but solving enough of them so that we can move forward as a nation and not fall into decline and decay. The left/right paradigm is definitely not a lie, but at bottom it is about solving real problems, not just about whose ideology wins. And it's in 4Ts that the victors are able to make real change and get things done, not in 1Ts. A first turning will just see continuation of what is started in the 4T. The way to get through the 4T and into a 1T, is to face the need for the battle and get involved.

4Ts are not times of compromise. The battle has barely been joined in this one yet. So there's no prospect at all of a first turning starting soon. It won't start until 2028 at the earliest, and even then, the first turning will still see more controversy and activism than the previous one did, along with more consensus than in the 4T. And then a second turning will follow in the late 2040s, bringing today's issues to a climax and fulfillment of purpose.

Thanks, this was a good post.  Forgive, I am slightly ornery just now from being sick.

I do not think there has been a history of a 1st turning not happening.  From the authors' perspective, the only thing ever skipped was a Hero archetype after the Civil War.  O but wait... does that mean 1st turning High was skipped?  I haven't been able to understand that one.

I say right/left paradigm is a lie because no matter what anyone thinks, BOTH sides in the Prophet archetype ONLY want their ideology to win.  They never care if there is real progress.  To say that isn't so is just untrue.  We can think one side is the villain, but the authors don't say that at all.  They wrote it isn't the ideology that's the problem but pigheaded people in general who have no facility to compromise.

^ sure, I have a hard time with that.  I think about how one side when had almost full power was able to pass a healthcare bill and a FEW other things.  But when you look at it, there really are many, many Americans who did not want that.  For me or anyone to invalidate their view as "wrong" is simply to put on the Prophet hat and get ready to rumble.  I think that is why things are not happening.

You said: The first turning, which is really not a "high," but more like a spirit-dead phase of recovery from trauma, is not going to come without first going through the gauntlett and facing the fire. There are no victory celebrations and placid conformity to the consensus until the victory has been won.

In response to that, I really really get that.... and I too have been expecting much worse to come.  However, when I put your above into my thoughts and really link up to the events that have already happened, I have to say there was a gauntlet already.  I've named them several times and they fit the models laid out by the authors.  It just has not been as extreme as I expected.  Then I think if I was expecting such an extreme thing because of paying mind to people like Alex Jones or Rush Limbaugh (2 sides of the same blow-hard diatribe).  Both of them boomers, both of them pandering to the boomer desire for a House Targaryen Fire and Blood scenario.

You say no victory celebrations and placid conformity until the victory has been won....... and while that does fit with a VJ-Day scenario where mass impregnations happened where the beginning of the boom could be denoted to even the specific day!  But what about a softer reboot?  Why does it have to be SO drastic?  Not all turnings are the same.  I am still holding onto 911+Financial Crisis=4th Turning of the 21st Century.  But I may be wrong, it has happened before Confused

You said: The track record of the american/anglo-european saeculum in avoiding major war in a 4T is not good.

I would like to hear more about this.  Is there a model of this within the saeculum history?  Like I said, I'm aware a Hero archetype was skipped after the American Civil War, but has there ever been a skipping of a whole cycle?  Perhaps user MikeBert has information -- they had expanded on past cycles well.

You said: 4Ts are not times of compromise. The battle has barely been joined in this one yet. So there's no prospect at all of a first turning starting soon.

This is where I think it comes down to interpretation of the model.  Nothing happens in one day.  We do not simply wake up into a new turning.  I don't think that can ever rarely happen.  It does not become that suddenly there is compromise where there was not.  Or suddenly Boomers die en masse and that solves things.  It is all fluid.  At this point we are debating between 5 or 10 years away.  But I'd like to know exactly what indicators you base the 4th Turning on. 

For me, the 2 main indicators from the authors are 1) a societal shift where outside institutions are transformed and the culture is dramatically different from what it was previously.  911 changed many, many things.  Kids born after do not know you used to be able to wander in and out of the airport waiting for your family to arrive or leave.  They don't know a time when torture of international prisoners or blank zones like Guantanamo was commonplace.  They do not know a time when you can vanish in the middle of the night for being a Muslim and/or speaking your mind could be interpreted in a way that could bring you to jail for observation.  We had several wars which transformed places like Iraq and forged new political friends or enemies.  America became globally despised.  Ties with other nations were ruined. On and on.

2) The same children do not/have not known an America where their parents or family were not (generally) struggling to make ends meet OR homeless OR having to move in with relatives OR not being able to exist on their own without family help OR generally.......... they do not know what it is like to NOT be in a Crisis.  This same facet is an indicator of 4th Turning  when the authors said wealth would evaporate at a moment's notice.  Back in the late 80s, I recall specifically Tom Brokaw calling it "The Fleecing of America".  So, it happens with both even-numbered turning - and much harsher in the 4th.  I say again, do we truly realize how devastating the 2008 thing was?  I was out of work for a long while.  I struggled and had to rely on others.  I know people who lost property (multiple properties) and this was unthinkable.  People being forced to take roomates and live with cousins, those who lived somewhat "posh" lives on the California coast who became as vagrants wandering from one rental unit to the next with their families and ended up dying IN MONTANA or IDAHO.  Does anyone remember the BED BUG crisis on the east coast and south in around 2012??  From the displaced thousands who were cast out and staying in motels? 

All of this, and we are expecting more Crisis?  All I can say is I hope you are wrong.  WHEN does the upswing start?  When we say "2028" what does that look like?  Are people suddenly cooperating on that date?  Where is the time for transition?  If we say 2028, there will be ARTIST archetypes already starting families and in the workforce, Nomads will almost be out of the game in every respect.  It seems really late to me.

I've said rump is an aberration.  The neocon cloud cannot assume power.  Why?  Not because I said NO but because there just isn't more time for that nonsense.  People are saying the whole calamity will culminate with Iran and mid-east / Persian war.  I can buy that based on what I see in the news lately.  But when I consider the saeculum model, there just isn't more time for that.  If you think there is, please discuss what that looks like to you.  What do you see being the last calamity(s) for this 4th Turning?  People like Pelosi and Feinstein are being openly accused of being too old to seek another term.  I see the changes coming already.  Those kids in Florida -- Heroes and Artists (who are in the model supposed to be helpmates) are already of voting age and they are armed with networks and technology with one voice.  They will not ALLOW the government to put them in harm's way over assault weapons coming into their schools anymore.  Their voices can only be expanded upon to read a sea-change in MOOD.  I view that mood as having already changed.  It seems you are saying it can only change after the Crisis.  Well, I am proposing maybe the Crisis has already come and went.

You will certainly be disappointed if you expect the 1T to begin before 2028. There is no real basis to assume that the 4T started any earlier than 2008, since 9-11 did NOT change America in the way you say. It was business as usual at home, as we were told to go shopping, and war was limited to some stupid MIC invasions in which most Americans did not materially participate. And given the slow pace of the needed domestic change until now, making our age almost an exact repeat of the 1850s, there is no basis to assume that the real crunch time isn't still ahead. We have not come to terms at all yet with the issues that threaten our nation. How could we enter a 1T then, that would be any different from a prolonged 4T?

The change in mood you mention above is exactly what I see too. That is a willingness among young people to stop with the apathy, and push for change. They are ready to rumble; to "fight for our lives" and "rev up the engines" (quote from Ryan Deitsch, Parkland student). This is definitely 4T stuff, because the resistance is still very strong too. It is highly likely to be the main issue that causes a civil war, secession and/or a rebellion by reactionaries on some scale. The economic problems you mention are exactly correct, and more fuel for the fire, because nothing has been done to change them. The steadfast resistance by the wealthy and powerful Republican corporate establishment continues, in order to keep the people poor and struggling. Their "freedom caucus" forestalls any action at all. Given these facts, change is going to ramp up; bet on it. 10 years of 4T rumbling is plenty of time for lots of conflict to occur. Why would you not see that? If there's good news from me, it is that the worst of the economic crisis happened already starting in 2008. I expect a fear-arousing recession next year, but if anything, the 2020s will be boom times. The crisis will be political and cultural, centering on guns, climate change, and the economic inequality and free-market nonsense that keeps most people struggling and endangered despite a recovering economy.

It looks like to me that by the mid-2020s, there could be domestic and foreign war at once. The bright side is that I expect both to be less severe than previous saecula. But the terrorist threat still exists, and the American MIC still exists. Drump is not necessarily an aberration. He is the climax of reactionary trends that have developed over the last 40 years. He has instituted trickle-down economics on steroids, and stirred up the race war on top of that. His foreign policy of bullying others will not work, and will keep the conflicts bubbling. Due to my own cosmic sources however, I think we will emerge from his term without the USA itself actually going into a major war. That is because of the war cycle that I see. The USA is war weary at the moment, but by 2025 I see the USA engaging abroad again.

2028 is right on time for the next 1T to start, unless it is postponed further. There will still be plenty of boomer leaders around, since there are still plenty of Silents around during this 4T even half way in. The nomads will still be the largest leadership group, with millennials starting to take over. At the end of the last 4T, early-cohort artist-archetype Silents were already involved in the war. That is nothing new. The saeculum is 82+ years, not 70-something. 1946 + 82 = 2028.

I think the entry into the 1T will be less sudden than it was after the clear victory in 1945. Even then, there were lots of strikes in 1946, so that tranquility was still not so clear-cut. There was anti-communist hysteria too. But it was farily decisive. I expect the transition to take a year, and even then, lots of activism will continue. But it won't seriously threaten or disrupt the system after 2029, and needed changes started in the 4T will continue, along with more tech progress than we have seen since the 1960s. Be sure and not speak of the 1T as in any sense a ramping up though. It is a slowing down. After the 4T, the mood is more conservative than during the 4T climax. Expect most big changes to happen in the 2020s.

I mentioned that major war usually happens in the 4T. The weakest 4T war was the Armada Crisis; that was brief and easily won. All other 4Ts involved long, deadly, grueling total wars: the Wars of the Roses, King William's War, the Revolution, Civil War and World War Two. My hope is that, like in Elizabethan times, we are in a Renaissance period of upswing in civilization, so that the conflict may look more like the Armada Crisis. The reason a first turning has always happened, is because victory for the progressive side happened. If it doesn't happen this time, such a first turning as we get will be nothing but a severe, prolonged decline with the people disillusioned and unable to act. It could happen, if as people say the USA has reached its peak and is now going to decline. I still have hope that the progressives will win and thus we will enter a first turning and continue to progress, because we are in a Renaissance stage in the cycle of civilization.

This is where I disagree with you: "I say right/left paradigm is a lie because no matter what anyone thinks, BOTH sides in the Prophet archetype ONLY want their ideology to win.  They never care if there is real progress.  To say that isn't so is just untrue.  We can think one side is the villain, but the authors don't say that at all.  They wrote it isn't the ideology that's the problem but pigheaded people in general who have no facility to compromise.

^ sure, I have a hard time with that.  I think about how one side when had almost full power was able to pass a healthcare bill and a FEW other things.  But when you look at it, there really are many, many Americans who did not want that.  For me or anyone to invalidate their view as "wrong" is simply to put on the Prophet hat and get ready to rumble.  I think that is why things are not happening."

Boomers are prophet archetypes, and prophets are a divided generation. It is divided now between blue and red. The blue side cares about real progress, which the Affordable Care Act was an example of. No, we want real progress; that's why we support health care reform. The people and even business wanted it, but the red side stirs up opposition with their trickle-down free market rigid ideology. THAT is exactly what needs to be defeated. The Paul Ryans and Donald Trumps must go. Only if free market economics is defeated, can we progress. Compromise is not 4T, according to the authors; it is 3T, and it fails. Prophets and Xers too may be pig-headed, but the authors state that one side DOES win, led by a prophet group of gray champions. They are champions because they fight the obstruction and win. Don't knock the prophet archetype; it is part of the cycle. 4Ts are times for heroism and victory, not meek compromise with evil. Do not be deceived about the nature of today's opposition to progress. The red side is evil, and must be defeated. The way around that is not for Democrats to keep compromising and aping the ways of the Reaganoids. Not at all. The way around this is to mobilize and break through the 40-year stalemate with a victory for progress. The "rumble" IS what's happening. Compromise with people who don't want any change, so that nothing changes, is not the way to have things "happening." There is NO way around this. The only way forward is to bust our way through. Compromise is possible among today's "moderates" and many (but not all) leftists, but NOT with the dedicated obstructionists (who are not just prophets, but even more now composed of nomads). Either you are on the side of progress, or not. Which will it be, Sir Nomad?

Much of what you say makes total sense.  I always have seen the notion of "dealing with our problems" as the initial phase of the 1st Turning or LATE in the 4th.  You say there will be a boom in the next few years, but you also say a recession next year?  The transition period from Crisis to High takes time.  Like I said it doesn't happen immediately.  Or how rump is the culmination of boomer nonsense, sure.  But I do not see him lasting past the next full election.  And I see his influence wasting away at the end of this year with the elections of lower stature. 

There are lots of things you said to go word for word, but not necessary.  I think we are not far apart.  Even though you call certain people "evil" (while I agree, I am teaching myself not to do that because it's unproductive to the conversation).  BTW when the CNN Hall happened and those people vilified the NRA woman, I felt that was unproductive and was a product of the PARENTS in the crowd more than the youngers.  Those young people do not think that way except for the bombastic ones  who stir up the others.  I've noticed I have parts of each archetype in my attitude (so does everyone) and to survive and thrive in the present and future we have to choose to erase that rhetoric.

I agree democrats/left will begin to dominate and stay for a long period of time.  Starting when?  I think it will be sooner than people realize.   I was surprised when it became clear the ARTISTS are even coming of age to vote at 18.  That means ALL Heroes are able to vote now and Artists only are their "helpmate" and will bring this wave I am talking about.  I think when I meditated on that, it forced me to re-examine my thought of the generational model as to where it is now.

4Ts are times for heroism and victory, not meek compromise with evil.

I get that.  Seriously.  However, I am selling a possible soft reboot here.  That a soft reboot is what has happened, and since we all are expecting armageddon, we maybe cannot or are unwilling to accept it wasn't as hash as we wanted it to be.

Either you are on the side of progress, or not. Which will it be, Sir Nomad?

Of course I am for progress.  I am also for really being willing to examine the generational model and make a "forecast" based on past events and trends instead of holding out for the apocalypse because I think that's the only way it can happen.

Much of your ideas are totally acceptable to me.  Some maybe are not.  911 was so long ago now and flushed from memory due to trauma, we maybe cannot remember what it was like and how much our civilization has changed.  I can only think that in 2000 I visited Boulder Dam and made a joke in a crowd that I should "leave my nuclear device outside".  Only a year later, I may have been whisked off to a secret prison to be interrogated for that one simple joke.  When, I drove into work on 911 and then was ushered by a loudspeaker out to the parking lot with hundreds of co-workers to be filmed during the national anthem.  Some friends of mine purchased flags for their car windows...................... flying tattered in the wind into ashes.  Flags on the side of their homes, people who did not agree with the war(s) were extricated to the side and labeled treasonous.  Young men and women shipped off to the slaughter in Iraq, Afghanistan and other places.  And you say "it was nothing?"  Me thinks you have forgotten how that event restructured America.  Plus, we have a whole generation of people alive now who have no idea what it was like to actually go into any airport and wait for a friend without being strip searched.  The "shoe bomber".  A WHOLE GENERATION OF PEOPLE WHO KNOW AND EXPECT THEY WILL HAVE TO REMOVE THEIR SHOES IN THE AIRPORT.  The Patriot Act.  All the rhetoric and laws that came with it which are almost unchangeable now.  We've had no terror attack since that, yet, all this nonsense remains in place.  And I know someone here will say "we haven't had an attack because of the "nonsense".  w/e

I'm asking you to consider that instead of America becoming a wasteland of humans foraging for food in a nuclear winter that maybe it is possible the reboot was not as cold as you'd maybe like it to be.  Because in all honesty, you do sound like it's a sort of fervor.  I see that in a lot of people, they once looked for biblical prophecy to tell them the End was Nigh, then when all that becomes ludicrous, we look at S&H and pick up the thread there.  And I will go so far to say that S&H are fearmongers of a sort themselves with these books.  However, I sense they did it as a marketing ploy.  I don't know who would purchase such a supposed DRY book about generations unless there was some sex factor like a fiery flaming end.

I think that in saying that the wars domestic and foreign will be less severe and not armageddon or holocaust, that I am not doing the boomer thing you suggest. Many others in these forums believe things will be much worse. From the resistance to change I see, I can't see that it's anything but a brick wall that needs to be punched down. I don't think it's because I want it that way; it's been that way for 40 years, and increasingly so. And it seems to me that a crisis of the kind that S&H predicted will happen because of it.

I don't think the airport thing is anything but an irritant. No I certainly don't think 9-11 changed America. It was an excuse for the military industrial complex and "neocon" war mentality just to continue as it had been before the Cold War ended. It was business as usual resuming, not because boomers wanted it that way, but because the MIC wanted it that way. And there are wars in all turnings; a 4T war has been a total war fought with the intent of gaining unconditional surrender; Iraq and Afghanistan were not that.

I totally get that you don't want to call the other side evil. Rhetoric can be a problem, but I have never subscribed to the idea that it's the main problem. If people are determined in their actions solely by reaction to bad rhetoric, then they are not paying attention. It's the problems themselves that are the problem, not how we talk about them.

I'm sure we want a lot of the same things. There will be plenty of people in America who do so that a consensus will eventually develop, but more new folks have to come on the scene and older ones leave, and a lot of the folks resisting change will need to be convinced or forced to stop resisting and cooperate instead of being so attached to the ideologies they hold: free market, religious right, etc.; a resistance that unfortunately makes a crisis necessary that hasn't happened yet. Repressive power is entrenched: gerrymandering, voter suppression, a supreme court that upholds money in politics and restricts workers' rights, a wealth inequality that is staggering and empowered by the current political regime, corporate interests dedicated to keeping the fossil fuel economy going, interests that insist on keeping America armed to the teeth and ready to fight, which helps create an incredible national debt and waste of taxpayer money, a gun culture determined to provide guns to anyone who wants one and the gun companies wealthy despite continued massacres and violence, racism among the police and white people that results in immigration battles and blatant injustice on the streets and in the courts and jails, and so on. It will take a revolution of some kind to break through all this well enough so that progress can resume.

I don't buy that today's 18-year olds are artist archetypes. I know David Hogg calls himself a millennial, and so do the others. Only the 14-year olds are artists. We can disagree about that though, and that's cool. I just see no basis for speeding up the saeculum. It is 82 years long, and is proceeding just as I predicted. We can't always get what we want. The 4T may not be as severe as some fervent boomers or others want, but it may not be as quick and easy as you or some others prefer either. I don't quite understand why some S&H followers somehow think the saeculum will suddenly speed up and go by faster than they said it would, especially in regard to the lynchpin of the whole cycle, the great crisis that returns every 80+ years. We ain't seen nothin' yet.

The seeds are being planted for a 1T, because the possibility exists now that a millennial surge supported by older folks in positions of power facilitating it will establish the moral and political tenets that will power to victory in this 4T, and be the foundation for the 1T consensus to come. That was no different from what happened with the declaration of independence, or the reaction to the Dred Scot decision in the abolitionist movement, or the New Deal and the reaction to Pearl Harbor. Lots of fighting was still ahead, and it's ahead of us now, just as the students at the March for Our Lives rally say.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
#39
(05-24-2018, 05:10 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(05-23-2018, 08:19 PM)TheNomad Wrote: You say trump must go for the crisis to end, but that's unrealistic.  
How is this unrealistic? G.W.H Bush served only a single term, so did Carter, the last disjunctive president. In fact, given that Hoover was the disjunctive president before Carter, one can make the case that we are perhaps due for another (1928...1976...2016?).

Quote:In the past, there was one side of a political spectrum that pushed out the other.  But that doesn't mean a complete bonfire of everyone on a side.

I think I meant unrealistic with the amount of time left to turn the cycle.
Reply
#40
(05-24-2018, 06:28 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 03:48 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 01:43 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 12:50 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 03:25 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: It's good to see your comments on the forum, Nomad.

We are where we are, as I see it, because the wrong decisions have been made for too long. In the end, it is not about ideology. It is about what works best for the people. Right now people in the USA are polarized. Many people on the right and some on the left are dedicated to their ideology and don't see the real needs. Compromise has just not been possible. The first turning, which is really not a "high," but more like a spirit-dead phase of recovery from trauma, is not going to come without first going through the gauntlett and facing the fire. There are no victory celebrations and placid conformity to the consensus until the victory has been won.

The track record of the american/anglo-european saeculum in avoiding major war in a 4T is not good. I hope it will not be a holocaust; I don't think it needs to be. But the issues like climate change and the lack of opportunities for many people will not wait. If those who want to take action can't break the stalemate and act on the real issues, and defeat the opposition, then the problems will just get worse and there will be no first turning. It can only come after some real action has been taken and the opponents to action have been defeated. Defeat for the stand pat opponents, the Republicans, will be best if it is defeat at the ballot box. But if it doesn't happen, bullets will fly, and the outcome may not be good. We do have a good track record of victory in 4Ts; the progressive side has always won the war and we have moved forward; not solving all the problems, but solving enough of them so that we can move forward as a nation and not fall into decline and decay. The left/right paradigm is definitely not a lie, but at bottom it is about solving real problems, not just about whose ideology wins. And it's in 4Ts that the victors are able to make real change and get things done, not in 1Ts. A first turning will just see continuation of what is started in the 4T. The way to get through the 4T and into a 1T, is to face the need for the battle and get involved.

4Ts are not times of compromise. The battle has barely been joined in this one yet. So there's no prospect at all of a first turning starting soon. It won't start until 2028 at the earliest, and even then, the first turning will still see more controversy and activism than the previous one did, along with more consensus than in the 4T. And then a second turning will follow in the late 2040s, bringing today's issues to a climax and fulfillment of purpose.

Thanks, this was a good post.  Forgive, I am slightly ornery just now from being sick.

I do not think there has been a history of a 1st turning not happening.  From the authors' perspective, the only thing ever skipped was a Hero archetype after the Civil War.  O but wait... does that mean 1st turning High was skipped?  I haven't been able to understand that one.

I say right/left paradigm is a lie because no matter what anyone thinks, BOTH sides in the Prophet archetype ONLY want their ideology to win.  They never care if there is real progress.  To say that isn't so is just untrue.  We can think one side is the villain, but the authors don't say that at all.  They wrote it isn't the ideology that's the problem but pigheaded people in general who have no facility to compromise.

^ sure, I have a hard time with that.  I think about how one side when had almost full power was able to pass a healthcare bill and a FEW other things.  But when you look at it, there really are many, many Americans who did not want that.  For me or anyone to invalidate their view as "wrong" is simply to put on the Prophet hat and get ready to rumble.  I think that is why things are not happening.

You said: The first turning, which is really not a "high," but more like a spirit-dead phase of recovery from trauma, is not going to come without first going through the gauntlett and facing the fire. There are no victory celebrations and placid conformity to the consensus until the victory has been won.

In response to that, I really really get that.... and I too have been expecting much worse to come.  However, when I put your above into my thoughts and really link up to the events that have already happened, I have to say there was a gauntlet already.  I've named them several times and they fit the models laid out by the authors.  It just has not been as extreme as I expected.  Then I think if I was expecting such an extreme thing because of paying mind to people like Alex Jones or Rush Limbaugh (2 sides of the same blow-hard diatribe).  Both of them boomers, both of them pandering to the boomer desire for a House Targaryen Fire and Blood scenario.

You say no victory celebrations and placid conformity until the victory has been won....... and while that does fit with a VJ-Day scenario where mass impregnations happened where the beginning of the boom could be denoted to even the specific day!  But what about a softer reboot?  Why does it have to be SO drastic?  Not all turnings are the same.  I am still holding onto 911+Financial Crisis=4th Turning of the 21st Century.  But I may be wrong, it has happened before Confused

You said: The track record of the american/anglo-european saeculum in avoiding major war in a 4T is not good.

I would like to hear more about this.  Is there a model of this within the saeculum history?  Like I said, I'm aware a Hero archetype was skipped after the American Civil War, but has there ever been a skipping of a whole cycle?  Perhaps user MikeBert has information -- they had expanded on past cycles well.

You said: 4Ts are not times of compromise. The battle has barely been joined in this one yet. So there's no prospect at all of a first turning starting soon.

This is where I think it comes down to interpretation of the model.  Nothing happens in one day.  We do not simply wake up into a new turning.  I don't think that can ever rarely happen.  It does not become that suddenly there is compromise where there was not.  Or suddenly Boomers die en masse and that solves things.  It is all fluid.  At this point we are debating between 5 or 10 years away.  But I'd like to know exactly what indicators you base the 4th Turning on. 

For me, the 2 main indicators from the authors are 1) a societal shift where outside institutions are transformed and the culture is dramatically different from what it was previously.  911 changed many, many things.  Kids born after do not know you used to be able to wander in and out of the airport waiting for your family to arrive or leave.  They don't know a time when torture of international prisoners or blank zones like Guantanamo was commonplace.  They do not know a time when you can vanish in the middle of the night for being a Muslim and/or speaking your mind could be interpreted in a way that could bring you to jail for observation.  We had several wars which transformed places like Iraq and forged new political friends or enemies.  America became globally despised.  Ties with other nations were ruined. On and on.

2) The same children do not/have not known an America where their parents or family were not (generally) struggling to make ends meet OR homeless OR having to move in with relatives OR not being able to exist on their own without family help OR generally.......... they do not know what it is like to NOT be in a Crisis.  This same facet is an indicator of 4th Turning  when the authors said wealth would evaporate at a moment's notice.  Back in the late 80s, I recall specifically Tom Brokaw calling it "The Fleecing of America".  So, it happens with both even-numbered turning - and much harsher in the 4th.  I say again, do we truly realize how devastating the 2008 thing was?  I was out of work for a long while.  I struggled and had to rely on others.  I know people who lost property (multiple properties) and this was unthinkable.  People being forced to take roomates and live with cousins, those who lived somewhat "posh" lives on the California coast who became as vagrants wandering from one rental unit to the next with their families and ended up dying IN MONTANA or IDAHO.  Does anyone remember the BED BUG crisis on the east coast and south in around 2012??  From the displaced thousands who were cast out and staying in motels? 

All of this, and we are expecting more Crisis?  All I can say is I hope you are wrong.  WHEN does the upswing start?  When we say "2028" what does that look like?  Are people suddenly cooperating on that date?  Where is the time for transition?  If we say 2028, there will be ARTIST archetypes already starting families and in the workforce, Nomads will almost be out of the game in every respect.  It seems really late to me.

I've said rump is an aberration.  The neocon cloud cannot assume power.  Why?  Not because I said NO but because there just isn't more time for that nonsense.  People are saying the whole calamity will culminate with Iran and mid-east / Persian war.  I can buy that based on what I see in the news lately.  But when I consider the saeculum model, there just isn't more time for that.  If you think there is, please discuss what that looks like to you.  What do you see being the last calamity(s) for this 4th Turning?  People like Pelosi and Feinstein are being openly accused of being too old to seek another term.  I see the changes coming already.  Those kids in Florida -- Heroes and Artists (who are in the model supposed to be helpmates) are already of voting age and they are armed with networks and technology with one voice.  They will not ALLOW the government to put them in harm's way over assault weapons coming into their schools anymore.  Their voices can only be expanded upon to read a sea-change in MOOD.  I view that mood as having already changed.  It seems you are saying it can only change after the Crisis.  Well, I am proposing maybe the Crisis has already come and went.

You will certainly be disappointed if you expect the 1T to begin before 2028. There is no real basis to assume that the 4T started any earlier than 2008, since 9-11 did NOT change America in the way you say. It was business as usual at home, as we were told to go shopping, and war was limited to some stupid MIC invasions in which most Americans did not materially participate. And given the slow pace of the needed domestic change until now, making our age almost an exact repeat of the 1850s, there is no basis to assume that the real crunch time isn't still ahead. We have not come to terms at all yet with the issues that threaten our nation. How could we enter a 1T then, that would be any different from a prolonged 4T?

The change in mood you mention above is exactly what I see too. That is a willingness among young people to stop with the apathy, and push for change. They are ready to rumble; to "fight for our lives" and "rev up the engines" (quote from Ryan Deitsch, Parkland student). This is definitely 4T stuff, because the resistance is still very strong too. It is highly likely to be the main issue that causes a civil war, secession and/or a rebellion by reactionaries on some scale. The economic problems you mention are exactly correct, and more fuel for the fire, because nothing has been done to change them. The steadfast resistance by the wealthy and powerful Republican corporate establishment continues, in order to keep the people poor and struggling. Their "freedom caucus" forestalls any action at all. Given these facts, change is going to ramp up; bet on it. 10 years of 4T rumbling is plenty of time for lots of conflict to occur. Why would you not see that? If there's good news from me, it is that the worst of the economic crisis happened already starting in 2008. I expect a fear-arousing recession next year, but if anything, the 2020s will be boom times. The crisis will be political and cultural, centering on guns, climate change, and the economic inequality and free-market nonsense that keeps most people struggling and endangered despite a recovering economy.

It looks like to me that by the mid-2020s, there could be domestic and foreign war at once. The bright side is that I expect both to be less severe than previous saecula. But the terrorist threat still exists, and the American MIC still exists. Drump is not necessarily an aberration. He is the climax of reactionary trends that have developed over the last 40 years. He has instituted trickle-down economics on steroids, and stirred up the race war on top of that. His foreign policy of bullying others will not work, and will keep the conflicts bubbling. Due to my own cosmic sources however, I think we will emerge from his term without the USA itself actually going into a major war. That is because of the war cycle that I see. The USA is war weary at the moment, but by 2025 I see the USA engaging abroad again.

2028 is right on time for the next 1T to start, unless it is postponed further. There will still be plenty of boomer leaders around, since there are still plenty of Silents around during this 4T even half way in. The nomads will still be the largest leadership group, with millennials starting to take over. At the end of the last 4T, early-cohort artist-archetype Silents were already involved in the war. That is nothing new. The saeculum is 82+ years, not 70-something. 1946 + 82 = 2028.

I think the entry into the 1T will be less sudden than it was after the clear victory in 1945. Even then, there were lots of strikes in 1946, so that tranquility was still not so clear-cut. There was anti-communist hysteria too. But it was farily decisive. I expect the transition to take a year, and even then, lots of activism will continue. But it won't seriously threaten or disrupt the system after 2029, and needed changes started in the 4T will continue, along with more tech progress than we have seen since the 1960s. Be sure and not speak of the 1T as in any sense a ramping up though. It is a slowing down. After the 4T, the mood is more conservative than during the 4T climax. Expect most big changes to happen in the 2020s.

I mentioned that major war usually happens in the 4T. The weakest 4T war was the Armada Crisis; that was brief and easily won. All other 4Ts involved long, deadly, grueling total wars: the Wars of the Roses, King William's War, the Revolution, Civil War and World War Two. My hope is that, like in Elizabethan times, we are in a Renaissance period of upswing in civilization, so that the conflict may look more like the Armada Crisis. The reason a first turning has always happened, is because victory for the progressive side happened. If it doesn't happen this time, such a first turning as we get will be nothing but a severe, prolonged decline with the people disillusioned and unable to act. It could happen, if as people say the USA has reached its peak and is now going to decline. I still have hope that the progressives will win and thus we will enter a first turning and continue to progress, because we are in a Renaissance stage in the cycle of civilization.

This is where I disagree with you: "I say right/left paradigm is a lie because no matter what anyone thinks, BOTH sides in the Prophet archetype ONLY want their ideology to win.  They never care if there is real progress.  To say that isn't so is just untrue.  We can think one side is the villain, but the authors don't say that at all.  They wrote it isn't the ideology that's the problem but pigheaded people in general who have no facility to compromise.

^ sure, I have a hard time with that.  I think about how one side when had almost full power was able to pass a healthcare bill and a FEW other things.  But when you look at it, there really are many, many Americans who did not want that.  For me or anyone to invalidate their view as "wrong" is simply to put on the Prophet hat and get ready to rumble.  I think that is why things are not happening."

Boomers are prophet archetypes, and prophets are a divided generation. It is divided now between blue and red. The blue side cares about real progress, which the Affordable Care Act was an example of. No, we want real progress; that's why we support health care reform. The people and even business wanted it, but the red side stirs up opposition with their trickle-down free market rigid ideology. THAT is exactly what needs to be defeated. The Paul Ryans and Donald Trumps must go. Only if free market economics is defeated, can we progress. Compromise is not 4T, according to the authors; it is 3T, and it fails. Prophets and Xers too may be pig-headed, but the authors state that one side DOES win, led by a prophet group of gray champions. They are champions because they fight the obstruction and win. Don't knock the prophet archetype; it is part of the cycle. 4Ts are times for heroism and victory, not meek compromise with evil. Do not be deceived about the nature of today's opposition to progress. The red side is evil, and must be defeated. The way around that is not for Democrats to keep compromising and aping the ways of the Reaganoids. Not at all. The way around this is to mobilize and break through the 40-year stalemate with a victory for progress. The "rumble" IS what's happening. Compromise with people who don't want any change, so that nothing changes, is not the way to have things "happening." There is NO way around this. The only way forward is to bust our way through. Compromise is possible among today's "moderates" and many (but not all) leftists, but NOT with the dedicated obstructionists (who are not just prophets, but even more now composed of nomads). Either you are on the side of progress, or not. Which will it be, Sir Nomad?

Much of what you say makes total sense.  I always have seen the notion of "dealing with our problems" as the initial phase of the 1st Turning or LATE in the 4th.  You say there will be a boom in the next few years, but you also say a recession next year?  The transition period from Crisis to High takes time.  Like I said it doesn't happen immediately.  Or how rump is the culmination of boomer nonsense, sure.  But I do not see him lasting past the next full election.  And I see his influence wasting away at the end of this year with the elections of lower stature. 

There are lots of things you said to go word for word, but not necessary.  I think we are not far apart.  Even though you call certain people "evil" (while I agree, I am teaching myself not to do that because it's unproductive to the conversation).  BTW when the CNN Hall happened and those people vilified the NRA woman, I felt that was unproductive and was a product of the PARENTS in the crowd more than the youngers.  Those young people do not think that way except for the bombastic ones  who stir up the others.  I've noticed I have parts of each archetype in my attitude (so does everyone) and to survive and thrive in the present and future we have to choose to erase that rhetoric.

I agree democrats/left will begin to dominate and stay for a long period of time.  Starting when?  I think it will be sooner than people realize.   I was surprised when it became clear the ARTISTS are even coming of age to vote at 18.  That means ALL Heroes are able to vote now and Artists only are their "helpmate" and will bring this wave I am talking about.  I think when I meditated on that, it forced me to re-examine my thought of the generational model as to where it is now.

4Ts are times for heroism and victory, not meek compromise with evil.

I get that.  Seriously.  However, I am selling a possible soft reboot here.  That a soft reboot is what has happened, and since we all are expecting armageddon, we maybe cannot or are unwilling to accept it wasn't as hash as we wanted it to be.

Either you are on the side of progress, or not. Which will it be, Sir Nomad?

Of course I am for progress.  I am also for really being willing to examine the generational model and make a "forecast" based on past events and trends instead of holding out for the apocalypse because I think that's the only way it can happen.

Much of your ideas are totally acceptable to me.  Some maybe are not.  911 was so long ago now and flushed from memory due to trauma, we maybe cannot remember what it was like and how much our civilization has changed.  I can only think that in 2000 I visited Boulder Dam and made a joke in a crowd that I should "leave my nuclear device outside".  Only a year later, I may have been whisked off to a secret prison to be interrogated for that one simple joke.  When, I drove into work on 911 and then was ushered by a loudspeaker out to the parking lot with hundreds of co-workers to be filmed during the national anthem.  Some friends of mine purchased flags for their car windows...................... flying tattered in the wind into ashes.  Flags on the side of their homes, people who did not agree with the war(s) were extricated to the side and labeled treasonous.  Young men and women shipped off to the slaughter in Iraq, Afghanistan and other places.  And you say "it was nothing?"  Me thinks you have forgotten how that event restructured America.  Plus, we have a whole generation of people alive now who have no idea what it was like to actually go into any airport and wait for a friend without being strip searched.  The "shoe bomber".  A WHOLE GENERATION OF PEOPLE WHO KNOW AND EXPECT THEY WILL HAVE TO REMOVE THEIR SHOES IN THE AIRPORT.  The Patriot Act.  All the rhetoric and laws that came with it which are almost unchangeable now.  We've had no terror attack since that, yet, all this nonsense remains in place.  And I know someone here will say "we haven't had an attack because of the "nonsense".  w/e

I'm asking you to consider that instead of America becoming a wasteland of humans foraging for food in a nuclear winter that maybe it is possible the reboot was not as cold as you'd maybe like it to be.  Because in all honesty, you do sound like it's a sort of fervor.  I see that in a lot of people, they once looked for biblical prophecy to tell them the End was Nigh, then when all that becomes ludicrous, we look at S&H and pick up the thread there.  And I will go so far to say that S&H are fearmongers of a sort themselves with these books.  However, I sense they did it as a marketing ploy.  I don't know who would purchase such a supposed DRY book about generations unless there was some sex factor like a fiery flaming end.

I think that in saying that the wars domestic and foreign will be less severe and not armageddon or holocaust, that I am not doing the boomer thing you suggest. Many others in these forums believe things will be much worse. From the resistance to change I see, I can't see that it's anything but a brick wall that needs to be punched down. I don't think it's because I want it that way; it's been that way for 40 years, and increasingly so. And it seems to me that a crisis of the kind that S&H predicted will happen because of it.

I don't think the airport thing is anything but an irritant. No I certainly don't think 9-11 changed America. It was an excuse for the military industrial complex and "neocon" war mentality just to continue as it had been before the Cold War ended. It was business as usual resuming, not because boomers wanted it that way, but because the MIC wanted it that way. And there are wars in all turnings; a 4T war has been a total war fought with the intent of gaining unconditional surrender; Iraq and Afghanistan were not that.

I totally get that you don't want to call the other side evil. Rhetoric can be a problem, but I have never subscribed to the idea that it's the main problem. If people are determined in their actions solely by reaction to bad rhetoric, then they are not paying attention. It's the problems themselves that are the problem, not how we talk about them.

I'm sure we want a lot of the same things. There will be plenty of people in America who do so that a consensus will eventually develop, but more new folks have to come on the scene and older ones leave, and a lot of the folks resisting change will need to be convinced or forced to stop resisting and cooperate instead of being so attached to the ideologies they hold: free market, religious right, etc.; a resistance that unfortunately makes a crisis necessary that hasn't happened yet.

I don't buy that today's 18-year olds are artist archetypes. I know David Hogg calls himself a millennial, and so do the others. Only the 14-year olds are artists. We can disagree about that though, and that's cool. I just see no basis for speeding up the saeculum. It is 82 years long, and is proceeding just as I predicted. We can't always get what we want. The 4T may not be as severe as some fervent boomers or others want, but it may not be as quick and easy as you or some others prefer either. I don't quite understand why some S&H followers somehow think the saeculum will suddenly speed up and go by faster than they said it would, especially in regard to the lynchpin of the whole cycle, the great crisis that returns every 80+ years. We ain't seen nothin' yet.

The seeds are being planted for a 1T, because the possibility exists now that a millennial surge supported by older folks in positions of power facilitating it will establish the moral and political tenets that will power to victory in this 4T, and be the foundation for the 1T consensus to come. That was no different from what happened with the declaration of independence, or the reaction to the Dred Scot decision in the abolitionist movement, or the New Deal and the reaction to Pearl Harbor. Lots of fighting was still ahead, and it's ahead of us now, just as the students at the March for Our Lives rally say.

So describe the continued Crisis as you see it.  Who is involved at all generational levels, what exactly will be the war of unconditional surrender, who fights in it, by what mandate do you see people sending millennials and artists into the woodchipper, etc.  Fighting as you describe it mean these people are going to sign themselves up and their protective parents are going to let encourage and support them.  Remember, Nomads are too old to be fighting this war, the one thing I learned about Heroes is they do not get sent down the drain under any circumstance. 

Artists are 18 right now if you keep the bracket at 2002.  Born after the beginning of Crisis, never knowing what it was like prior to the Crisis, coming to age IN the Crisis.
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