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Looking Toward The Next High
#1
Hi, intro, I'm new and just joined today.  Any help with where things happen here is appreciated.  I simply popped into this area because it looked like where the content I was posting would belong.

Surely, speculation about the end of the current bracket has been discussed here. I've not seen anything in the past posts. So, hopefully this is to see if anyone is out there. The authors don't view the Crisis 4T as until 2008. Based on the end bracket of the Heroes (supposedly 2005) it seems right to bracket the Crisis on a more 2001 (9-11) model instead of the financial crash of 2008. What does anyone think? And after THIS, perhaps the location of the 1st Turning High might become more apparent.
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#2
Much of it depends upon how the Fourth Turning crisis ends -- victory or defeat, survival of Humanity/civilization/technology/capitalism...survival of the American political system was not a sure thing in 1930. This Crisis begins with a huge inventory of nukes in place instead of being recent introductions to the military arsenal at the end.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#3
(05-21-2018, 07:34 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Much of it depends upon how the Fourth Turning crisis ends -- victory or defeat, survival of Humanity/civilization/technology/capitalism...survival of the American political system was not a sure thing in 1930. This Crisis begins with a huge inventory of nukes in place instead of being recent introductions to the military arsenal at the end.

Thanks for the reply.  I guess I should ask, where do you think we are in America in terms of brackets?  If my view is sound, that we are kind of at the middle or end of the Crisis, it seems like it was not very "dramatic".  Seems to me if may have been a real "soft reboot" and we will see the changes happen in response to that.  Yes, 911 and 2008 were big events, and I know people who lost everything over the financial crisis.  But it was not much in terms of a huge war or a whole generation of people dying in the war or due to some plague or whatever.

OR, is there more Crisis yet to come?  That's what I am trying to figure out.
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#4
I think you'll find most people here use 2008 as the start of the 4T. On a typical cycle that would leave another 10ish years. Lots more to deal with.

I also think that the fallout from the election of Trump has yet to be really felt, though the signs of what that may lead to are becoming clearer (NK, Iran, internal strife, ...)
"But there's a difference between error and dishonesty, and it's not a trivial difference." - Ben Greenman
"Relax, it'll be all right, and by that I mean it will first get worse."
"How was I supposed to know that there'd be consequences for my actions?" - Gina Linetti
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#5
(05-22-2018, 11:24 AM)tg63 Wrote: I think you'll find most people here use 2008 as the start of the 4T. On a typical cycle that would leave another 10ish years. Lots more to deal with.

I also think that the fallout from the election of Trump has yet to be really felt, though the signs of what that may lead to are becoming clearer (NK, Iran, internal strife, ...)

i hate that you may be right :Sad was really hoping we had passed through the worst yet, while still being like "it wasnt THAT bad".

ugh

What other aspects of this theory are on your mind?
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#6
(05-22-2018, 11:17 AM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-21-2018, 07:34 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Much of it depends upon how the Fourth Turning crisis ends -- victory or defeat, survival of Humanity/civilization/technology/capitalism...survival of the American political system was not a sure thing in 1930. This Crisis begins with a huge inventory of nukes in place instead of being recent introductions to the military arsenal at the end.

Thanks for the reply.  I guess I should ask, where do you think we are in America in terms of brackets?  If my view is sound, that we are kind of at the middle or end of the Crisis, it seems like it was not very "dramatic".  Seems to me if may have been a real "soft reboot" and we will see the changes happen in response to that.  Yes, 911 and 2008 were big events, and I know people who lost everything over the financial crisis.  But it was not much in terms of a huge war or a whole generation of people dying in the war or due to some plague or whatever.

OR, is there more Crisis yet to come?  That's what I am trying to figure out.

But this financial crises didn't seem anywhere near as bad as the Great Depression was. I have often wondered how today's society would deal with GDII. Don't think nearly as well as those who lived through GDI did. Back then more people were able to grow their own food, etc. Eating out wasn't a big thing, and neither were huge homes, cars, and expensive nights out at concert halls and sporting events. Many today treat these things as God-given rights. The one activity that has died off is bar-hopping, most likely due to stricter drunk driving laws. Today people are very hooked on getting things done, to the point that leisure time has dwindled significantly over the last 40 some years which is the opposite of what many pundits originally expected.
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#7
(05-22-2018, 11:17 AM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-21-2018, 07:34 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Much of it depends upon how the Fourth Turning crisis ends -- victory or defeat, survival of Humanity/civilization/technology/capitalism...survival of the American political system was not a sure thing in 1930. This Crisis begins with a huge inventory of nukes in place instead of being recent introductions to the military arsenal at the end.

Thanks for the reply.  I guess I should ask, where do you think we are in America in terms of brackets?  If my view is sound, that we are kind of at the middle or end of the Crisis, it seems like it was not very "dramatic".  Seems to me if may have been a real "soft reboot" and we will see the changes happen in response to that.  Yes, 911 and 2008 were big events, and I know people who lost everything over the financial crisis.  But it was not much in terms of a huge war or a whole generation of people dying in the war or due to some plague or whatever.

OR, is there more Crisis yet to come?  That's what I am trying to figure out.

Yes. The de-industrialization of America will bring about a Great Devaluation of labor income. With the death of much of the retail (and probably restaurant) business, we could also see huge destruction of the valuation of many stock portfolios. If you thought that the economic meltdown of late 2007- early 2009 was bad, then wait until you see the next financial panic, when the economy stands to crash even more severely.  I expect Donald Trump will be the worst possible President in such a time -- Herbert Hoover without a moral compass -- as he pushes a speculative boom in shyster activities.  We will be caught with toll roads with no traffic and will have to 'socialize' them. Personal savings are inadequate to stop a meltdown of stock valuations.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#8
(05-22-2018, 03:24 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:
(05-22-2018, 11:17 AM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-21-2018, 07:34 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Much of it depends upon how the Fourth Turning crisis ends -- victory or defeat, survival of Humanity/civilization/technology/capitalism...survival of the American political system was not a sure thing in 1930. This Crisis begins with a huge inventory of nukes in place instead of being recent introductions to the military arsenal at the end.

Thanks for the reply.  I guess I should ask, where do you think we are in America in terms of brackets?  If my view is sound, that we are kind of at the middle or end of the Crisis, it seems like it was not very "dramatic".  Seems to me if may have been a real "soft reboot" and we will see the changes happen in response to that.  Yes, 911 and 2008 were big events, and I know people who lost everything over the financial crisis.  But it was not much in terms of a huge war or a whole generation of people dying in the war or due to some plague or whatever.

OR, is there more Crisis yet to come?  That's what I am trying to figure out.

But this financial crises didn't seem anywhere near as bad as the Great Depression was. I have often wondered how today's society would deal with GDII. Don't think nearly as well as those who lived through GDI did. Back then more people were able to grow their own food, etc. Eating out wasn't a big thing, and neither were huge homes, cars, and expensive nights out at concert halls and sporting events. Many today treat these things as God-given rights. The one activity that has died off is bar-hopping, most likely due to stricter drunk driving laws. Today people are very hooked on getting things done, to the point that leisure time has dwindled significantly over the last 40 some years which is the opposite of what many pundits originally expected.

But did you live through the GD?  How can we really know?  I believe all things are relative, and we often may not be able to compare such things over TIME... or even to the measure of how it affected peoples' lives.  I have some really good personal examples in my own life and those in my life.  I have been studying these concepts for a long time.  When all this was going on, I did not pay that close attention.  My friend lost successive properties even to the point where he and his entire family lost everything and had to partner up with other family members to live in a place and environment NONE of them ever thought they would have to.  That example is not one person or another.  There were several people who lost everything.  Totally gone, all semblance of security and general happiness with having to accept situations they never expected or wanted.

I have personally experienced devastation I won't go into here.

I don't know what people expect while making the comparison.  There were homeless camps in the 30s, there were homeless camps now in the teens and NOW there is a great homeless problem across America.  No one asks where that came from.  Droves of people lost everything.  We as a culture are just so much better now at hiding it.  And who would want to show or promote such news?  Who would want to show the reality as it is?  Nope.  You will follow the exact model of the authors and it means the Nomads get the shaft, no one listens or cares, let's shift our focus to the Millennials and how shiny their future might be.  It all fits like the proverbial glove.
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#9
(05-22-2018, 04:16 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(05-22-2018, 11:17 AM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-21-2018, 07:34 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Much of it depends upon how the Fourth Turning crisis ends -- victory or defeat, survival of Humanity/civilization/technology/capitalism...survival of the American political system was not a sure thing in 1930. This Crisis begins with a huge inventory of nukes in place instead of being recent introductions to the military arsenal at the end.

Thanks for the reply.  I guess I should ask, where do you think we are in America in terms of brackets?  If my view is sound, that we are kind of at the middle or end of the Crisis, it seems like it was not very "dramatic".  Seems to me if may have been a real "soft reboot" and we will see the changes happen in response to that.  Yes, 911 and 2008 were big events, and I know people who lost everything over the financial crisis.  But it was not much in terms of a huge war or a whole generation of people dying in the war or due to some plague or whatever.

OR, is there more Crisis yet to come?  That's what I am trying to figure out.

the next financial panic

This is what I am trying to understand.    Isn't it a bit too late for more devastation?  If these patterns mean anything it is that the cycles and archetypes cannot over-stay their welcome.  If we are to face more devastation and continue in a Crisis for a longer period of time, the archetypes and models sort of fall, don't they?  The Millennial/Heroes are already in adulthood.  The Boomers are pretty much GONE or GOING HARD out of relevancy, and the Nomads are even beginning to enter old age.  When the Nomad comes to full adult power, the Hero is re-shaping everything for the new High.  We cannot say the Millennial will do this in old age, because then the patterns no longer fit.

I really cannot see the current time as an unfortunate aberration.  The current president is an outsider, he is not with any political party and is representing one side simply because at this time in America, you cannot ascend to that level without the backing of one side or another.  This will change with the Heroes who will basically banish the current powerful side for a few long periods (the model says this specifically).  However, even though I see what is currently happening globally and everything, I have to look rationally and at the model and know it won't/can't happen.  That is what I think forecasting IS when you use these kinds of models.  We may want to or really expect things bad to happen and continue and get worse, that always seems to be what happens.  But the models are saying something different. 

I'd love to discuss that aspect.  Let's look at were we are according to all the information the model offers us then interpret that to see what may be coming.

Prophets are in 60s - 80s
Nomads are in their late 30s - late 50s.
Heroes are in 20s - 30s
Artists in toddler to teens

Based on this, and not even really other factors like the saeculum brackets or number of years calculated or factoring in number of years between Crisis and High........... this suggests the Crisis really has blown its load and is on the way out HARD.  That is why I am considering 911/2001 as more a begin bracket.  The authors describe how "if you remember what it was like before, then you are altogether NOT a part of the new bracket".  How everything, the culture, the ideology would be challenged.  How there would be great sacrifice of youngers at behest of "those who protested not to fight themselves asking youngers to sacrifice" (clearly Afghan/Iraqi war after 911) and how Boomers would have an almost orgasmic burst of ideology toward their ending reign in power (the Bush admin).  And then after, you have the first Nomad president handling the financial crisis.  If we move the date to 2008, it does not allow for all the MASSIVE upheaval we experienced as a result of the 2001 terror attacks, after which many of our American systems and core beliefs were tested and we came out the other side "a changed and transformed civilization".  For me, it does not feel that "grand".  But it is there.  That is why I said maybe this was in some respects a "soft reboot" instead of calamitous ruin or victorious win on the battlefield.
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#10
Welcome Nomad

I use a generation model to structure the saeculum. Basically I start with a core social moment, the Revolutionary era, which I date from 1774 (1st Continental Congress) to 1789 (Constitution ratified). I define a dominant gen who comes of age (age 21) during this time and subtract 21 from the 1774-89 dates to get birth dates. I then add the average age of political leaders (from Howe's database) to determine when they came to power, which defines the next social moment.  I then repeat the process over and over again generation the cycle down through to today. The projected 4T from this approach is 2005-2023, which is based on when Boomers (as predicted by the model, which is slightly different from he S&H dates) are supposed to be in power based on that two century old starting point.

Now empirically, one can make a case for a 4T start in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005/6, 2008, 2010 or 2016. I favor 2008 for the start of the social moment and expect it to last until around 2024. One can fill it out on each end with a couple of cusp years if one likes.

As for what's left in the 4T, well I note that there are many cycles like the S&H one and these offer insight that can be used to flesh out the S&H-derived picture. For example Steve Skowronek has an interesting presidential cycle that I find useful.  If you search on his name you can read a bit on it. An interesting twist would be if Trump turns out to the a disjunctive-type president in his cycle.

Then there is the Schlesinger cycle and the associated critical elections. Social moments since the Transcendental 2T has all had a critical election. Current candidates for these are 2008 and 2016. If Trump wins re-election then 2008 is ruled out as a critical election.  If he loses then 2016 is eliminated. If the parties just keep on switching every two terms as they have since 1992, then neither will be and this critical election rule will be violated, suggesting that something has changed fundamentally with the cycles.

There is also an economic cycle called the K-cycle, which has been aligned with turnings over the last century. A 3T/4T turning transition is associated with the start of the "winter season" of the K-cycle, which has happened most recently in 1929 and 2008.

Based on all this, I am looking for a recession to start later this year and Trump to not win re-election as a result, thus confirming the 2008 critical election and making a 2008 4T start a very good bet.

I believe the stock market is extremely overvalued and will eventually decline, but it is taking its sweet time. When it does it should go down to 8000 on the Dow or below, which is a long way down, which I think would probably give us another financial crisis and serious recession, making Trump a disjunctive president and the next president a FDR/Reagan-type figure according to the Skowronek model. Such a set of events would serve as an S&H 4T climax like 1781 or 1941, which is usually the last big event of the 4T.  It would then sputter out some years later.
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#11
(05-22-2018, 04:46 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-22-2018, 04:16 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(05-22-2018, 11:17 AM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-21-2018, 07:34 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Much of it depends upon how the Fourth Turning crisis ends -- victory or defeat, survival of Humanity/civilization/technology/capitalism...survival of the American political system was not a sure thing in 1930. This Crisis begins with a huge inventory of nukes in place instead of being recent introductions to the military arsenal at the end.

Thanks for the reply.  I guess I should ask, where do you think we are in America in terms of brackets?  If my view is sound, that we are kind of at the middle or end of the Crisis, it seems like it was not very "dramatic".  Seems to me if may have been a real "soft reboot" and we will see the changes happen in response to that.  Yes, 911 and 2008 were big events, and I know people who lost everything over the financial crisis.  But it was not much in terms of a huge war or a whole generation of people dying in the war or due to some plague or whatever.

OR, is there more Crisis yet to come?  That's what I am trying to figure out.

the next financial panic

This is what I am trying to understand.    Isn't it a bit too late for more devastation?  If these patterns mean anything it is that the cycles and archetypes cannot over-stay their welcome.  If we are to face more devastation and continue in a Crisis for a longer period of time, the archetypes and models sort of fall, don't they?  The Millennial/Heroes are already in adulthood.  The Boomers are pretty much GONE or GOING HARD out of relevancy, and the Nomads are even beginning to enter old age.  When the Nomad comes to full adult power, the Hero is re-shaping everything for the new High.  We cannot say the Millennial will do this in old age, because then the patterns no longer fit.

I really cannot see the current time as an unfortunate aberration.  The current president is an outsider, he is not with any political party and is representing one side simply because at this time in America, you cannot ascend to that level without the backing of one side or another.  This will change with the Heroes who will basically banish the current powerful side for a few long periods (the model says this specifically).  However, even though I see what is currently happening globally and everything, I have to look rationally and at the model and know it won't/can't happen.  That is what I think forecasting IS when you use these kinds of models.  We may want to or really expect things bad to happen and continue and get worse, that always seems to be what happens.  But the models are saying something different. 

I'd love to discuss that aspect.  Let's look at were we are according to all the information the model offers us then interpret that to see what may be coming.

Prophets are in 60s - 80s
Nomads are in their late 30s - late 50s.
Heroes are in 20s - 30s
Artists in toddler to teens

Based on this, and not even really other factors like the saeculum brackets or number of years calculated or factoring in number of years between Crisis and High........... this suggests the Crisis really has blown its load and is on the way out HARD.  That is why I am considering 911/2001 as more a begin bracket.  The authors describe how "if you remember what it was like before, then you are altogether NOT a part of the new bracket".  How everything, the culture, the ideology would be challenged.  How there would be great sacrifice of youngers at behest of "those who protested not to fight themselves asking youngers to sacrifice" (clearly Afghan/Iraqi war after 911) and how Boomers would have an almost orgasmic burst of ideology toward their ending reign in power (the Bush admin).  And then after, you have the first Nomad president handling the financial crisis.  If we move the date to 2008, it does not allow for all the MASSIVE upheaval we experienced as a result of the 2001 terror attacks, after which many of our American systems and core beliefs were tested and we came out the other side "a changed and transformed civilization".  For me, it does not feel that "grand".  But it is there.  That is why I said maybe this was in some respects a "soft reboot" instead of calamitous ruin or victorious win on the battlefield.

The S&H Prophets turn age 58-75 this year, the Nomads 37-57, and the Heroes 13-36.*  The average age of the political elite is about 63 and the president in 71. Boomers are still solidly in charge and will be for another 5 years or so.

*Here I set 1982-2005 for Millies instead of 1982-2003 because Howe pushed the 4T start back to 2008 from the 2005 data given in T4T.
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#12
(05-22-2018, 07:27 PM)Mikebert Wrote:
(05-22-2018, 04:46 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-22-2018, 04:16 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(05-22-2018, 11:17 AM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-21-2018, 07:34 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Much of it depends upon how the Fourth Turning crisis ends -- victory or defeat, survival of Humanity/civilization/technology/capitalism...survival of the American political system was not a sure thing in 1930. This Crisis begins with a huge inventory of nukes in place instead of being recent introductions to the military arsenal at the end.

Thanks for the reply.  I guess I should ask, where do you think we are in America in terms of brackets?  If my view is sound, that we are kind of at the middle or end of the Crisis, it seems like it was not very "dramatic".  Seems to me if may have been a real "soft reboot" and we will see the changes happen in response to that.  Yes, 911 and 2008 were big events, and I know people who lost everything over the financial crisis.  But it was not much in terms of a huge war or a whole generation of people dying in the war or due to some plague or whatever.

OR, is there more Crisis yet to come?  That's what I am trying to figure out.

the next financial panic

This is what I am trying to understand.    Isn't it a bit too late for more devastation?  If these patterns mean anything it is that the cycles and archetypes cannot over-stay their welcome.  If we are to face more devastation and continue in a Crisis for a longer period of time, the archetypes and models sort of fall, don't they?  The Millennial/Heroes are already in adulthood.  The Boomers are pretty much GONE or GOING HARD out of relevancy, and the Nomads are even beginning to enter old age.  When the Nomad comes to full adult power, the Hero is re-shaping everything for the new High.  We cannot say the Millennial will do this in old age, because then the patterns no longer fit.

I really cannot see the current time as an unfortunate aberration.  The current president is an outsider, he is not with any political party and is representing one side simply because at this time in America, you cannot ascend to that level without the backing of one side or another.  This will change with the Heroes who will basically banish the current powerful side for a few long periods (the model says this specifically).  However, even though I see what is currently happening globally and everything, I have to look rationally and at the model and know it won't/can't happen.  That is what I think forecasting IS when you use these kinds of models.  We may want to or really expect things bad to happen and continue and get worse, that always seems to be what happens.  But the models are saying something different. 

I'd love to discuss that aspect.  Let's look at were we are according to all the information the model offers us then interpret that to see what may be coming.

Prophets are in 60s - 80s
Nomads are in their late 30s - late 50s.
Heroes are in 20s - 30s
Artists in toddler to teens

Based on this, and not even really other factors like the saeculum brackets or number of years calculated or factoring in number of years between Crisis and High........... this suggests the Crisis really has blown its load and is on the way out HARD.  That is why I am considering 911/2001 as more a begin bracket.  The authors describe how "if you remember what it was like before, then you are altogether NOT a part of the new bracket".  How everything, the culture, the ideology would be challenged.  How there would be great sacrifice of youngers at behest of "those who protested not to fight themselves asking youngers to sacrifice" (clearly Afghan/Iraqi war after 911) and how Boomers would have an almost orgasmic burst of ideology toward their ending reign in power (the Bush admin).  And then after, you have the first Nomad president handling the financial crisis.  If we move the date to 2008, it does not allow for all the MASSIVE upheaval we experienced as a result of the 2001 terror attacks, after which many of our American systems and core beliefs were tested and we came out the other side "a changed and transformed civilization".  For me, it does not feel that "grand".  But it is there.  That is why I said maybe this was in some respects a "soft reboot" instead of calamitous ruin or victorious win on the battlefield.

Boomers are still solidly in charge and will be for another 5 years or so.

This is kinda my point.  If Boomers are basically OUT in 5 years, then the High must be beginning in about 5 years.  That means the Crisis is finished and the turning has begun.  I don't know what people are saying 2030 or even late 2020s.  We are also in an accelerated culture of technology where everything moves faster.

Based on news stories and research and following your "nose" so to speak, do you really think there is some life-altering drama to happen in the next 5 years or has there been enough?  Either the rebuilding is about to begin or there is more "destruction" and I cannot see something of the needed magnitude to BE that only bursting on the scene for a mere 5 years.  I do not think the "crisis" can last more than 5 years.  What else can happen?  It seems finished to me in the 2 main ways the authors describe: a war-related calamity AND an economic one.  We have had both.
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#13
(05-22-2018, 07:10 PM)Mikebert Wrote: Welcome Nomad

I use a generation model to structure the saeculum. Basically I start with a core social moment, the Revolutionary era, which I date from 1774 (1st Continental Congress) to 1789 (Constitution ratified). I define a dominant gen who comes of age (age 21) during this time and subtract 21 from the 1774-89 dates to get birth dates. I then add the average age of political leaders (from Howe's database) to determine when they came to power, which defines the next social moment.  I then repeat the process over and over again generation the cycle down through to today. The projected 4T from this approach is 2005-2023, which is based on when Boomers (as predicted by the model, which is slightly different from he S&H dates) are supposed to be in power based on that two century old starting point.

Now empirically, one can make a case for a 4T start in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005/6, 2008, 2010 or 2016. I favor 2008 for the start of the social moment and expect it to last until around 2024. One can fill it out on each end with a couple of cusp years if one likes.

As for what's left in the 4T, well I note that there are many cycles like the S&H one and these offer insight that can be used to flesh out the S&H-derived picture. For example Steve Skowronek has an interesting presidential cycle that I find useful.  If you search on his name you can read a bit on it. An interesting twist would be if Trump turns out to the a disjunctive-type president in his cycle.

Then there is the Schlesinger cycle and the associated critical elections. Social moments since the Transcendental 2T has all had a critical election. Current candidates for these are 2008 and 2016. If Trump wins re-election then 2008 is ruled out as a critical election.  If he loses then 2016 is eliminated. If the parties just keep on switching every two terms as they have since 1992, then neither will be and this critical election rule will be violated, suggesting that something has changed fundamentally with the cycles.

There is also an economic cycle called the K-cycle, which has been aligned with turnings over the last century. A 3T/4T turning transition is associated with the start of the "winter season" of the K-cycle, which has happened most recently in 1929 and 2008.

Based on all this, I am looking for a recession to start later this year and Trump to not win re-election as a result, thus confirming the 2008 critical election and making a 2008 4T start a very good bet.

I believe the stock market is extremely overvalued and will eventually decline, but it is taking its sweet time. When it does it should go down to 8000 on the Dow or below, which is a long way down, which I think would probably give us another financial crisis and serious recession, making Trump a disjunctive president and the next president a FDR/Reagan-type figure according to the Skowronek model. Such a set of events would serve as an S&H 4T climax like 1781 or 1941, which is usually the last big event of the 4T.  It would then sputter out some years later.

That's a lot of information lol.... I appreciate it.   I do hope you're wrong.  No matter what my political beliefs, no one can really say our economy is not revived.  I will say people got left behind along the way.  Some never re-entered the job force.  I am not personally savvy with market stats.  However, the unemployment rate is even a little too low.  Inflation is not very present.  If there is another financial crisis, it would take a lot longer than 5-6 years to heal again from that.  When you get to the end of a cycle, there is the blurring of is it crisis or high -- you are saying 2023-24, if we crash again, that upswing will be really late.  Contrarily, there has not been an enormous re-inventing of our civilization.  I must say, if we are to crash again, it can only be with such force we may not continue as a people.  When I think that, I have to conclude the "soft reboot" has already happened.  Now, we are moving into full-on rebuilding from it.  There remain some issues of  public nature and infrastructure has never been addressed, etc.. all those things might become apparent over that period. 

What do you think?  I really am here to learn and understand others as well as to stick to my guns if I just don't see it Smile
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#14
First of all, I see Donald Trump as a disaster and his reactionary agenda (which he shares with the Republican Party) as one capable of implementation only with effective suppression of the Other Side. You may interpret that to mean torture chambers, purges reminiscent of witch-hunts, and of course the destruction of American democracy. It is all without precedent. With a President as erratic as Donald Trump and with am adequate number of political stooges on his side, the essence of liberal democracy will be at risk.

I used to think a military coup impossible due to the decentralization of economic, political, and media power -- but all that it takes for a coup is an incompetent and unpopular leadership. I would not be surprised if we had severe tampering with elections to get the 'right' result for Trump and his associates.

I can imagine post-Trump right-wingers imposing some War for Profits... like trying to overthrow governments of Cuba or Venezuela. Far from getting the glorious results they get military disaster.

America has yet to congeal politically on any agenda' Americans split about 53-47 on most issues, and find little ground. It could be that one side gets its way on everything and compels the losing side to accept the result irrespective of its nastiness -- or emigrate, go underground, or die.

Intensification of economic inequality leads to bubbles that do more to waste capital than to protect, let alone grow capital. I expect the Trump/GOP side to fail catastrophically if it gets its way. There may be no means of bailing out the bad actors of this round of panic and depression.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
#15
(05-22-2018, 10:37 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: First of all, I see Donald Trump
Other Side
torture chambers, purges reminiscent of witch-hunts
Donald Trump
political stooges
the essence of liberal democracy will be at risk
military coup
incompetent and unpopular leadership
Trump and his associates

I must say in humor, you are obviously a baby boomer who would rather throw down on a battlefield than see someone not of your ilk in power.  They got that right!  Receive it in all humor, friend Smile

I'm a Nomad and we don't give a shit who does what so long as there is progress.  


So thank god when your generation gets flushed and we can actually start moving into the High Smile
Reply
#16
(05-22-2018, 10:25 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-22-2018, 07:10 PM)Mikebert Wrote: Welcome Nomad

I use a generation model to structure the saeculum. Basically I start with a core social moment, the Revolutionary era, which I date from 1774 (1st Continental Congress) to 1789 (Constitution ratified). I define a dominant gen who comes of age (age 21) during this time and subtract 21 from the 1774-89 dates to get birth dates. I then add the average age of political leaders (from Howe's database) to determine when they came to power, which defines the next social moment.  I then repeat the process over and over again generation the cycle down through to today. The projected 4T from this approach is 2005-2023, which is based on when Boomers (as predicted by the model, which is slightly different from he S&H dates) are supposed to be in power based on that two century old starting point.

Now empirically, one can make a case for a 4T start in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005/6, 2008, 2010 or 2016. I favor 2008 for the start of the social moment and expect it to last until around 2024. One can fill it out on each end with a couple of cusp years if one likes.

As for what's left in the 4T, well I note that there are many cycles like the S&H one and these offer insight that can be used to flesh out the S&H-derived picture. For example Steve Skowronek has an interesting presidential cycle that I find useful.  If you search on his name you can read a bit on it. An interesting twist would be if Trump turns out to the a disjunctive-type president in his cycle.

Then there is the Schlesinger cycle and the associated critical elections. Social moments since the Transcendental 2T has all had a critical election. Current candidates for these are 2008 and 2016. If Trump wins re-election then 2008 is ruled out as a critical election.  If he loses then 2016 is eliminated. If the parties just keep on switching every two terms as they have since 1992, then neither will be and this critical election rule will be violated, suggesting that something has changed fundamentally with the cycles.

There is also an economic cycle called the K-cycle, which has been aligned with turnings over the last century. A 3T/4T turning transition is associated with the start of the "winter season" of the K-cycle, which has happened most recently in 1929 and 2008.

Based on all this, I am looking for a recession to start later this year and Trump to not win re-election as a result, thus confirming the 2008 critical election and making a 2008 4T start a very good bet.

I believe the stock market is extremely overvalued and will eventually decline, but it is taking its sweet time. When it does it should go down to 8000 on the Dow or below, which is a long way down, which I think would probably give us another financial crisis and serious recession, making Trump a disjunctive president and the next president a FDR/Reagan-type figure according to the Skowronek model. Such a set of events would serve as an S&H 4T climax like 1781 or 1941, which is usually the last big event of the 4T.  It would then sputter out some years later.

That's a lot of information lol.... I appreciate it.   I do hope you're wrong.  No matter what my political beliefs, no one can really say our economy is not revived.  I will say people got left behind along the way.  Some never re-entered the job force.  I am not personally savvy with market stats.  However, the unemployment rate is even a little too low.  Inflation is not very present.  If there is another financial crisis, it would take a lot longer than 5-6 years to heal again from that.  When you get to the end of a cycle, there is the blurring of is it crisis or high -- you are saying 2023-24, if we crash again, that upswing will be really late.  Contrarily, there has not been an enormous re-inventing of our civilization.  I must say, if we are to crash again, it can only be with such force we may not continue as a people.  When I think that, I have to conclude the "soft reboot" has already happened.  Now, we are moving into full-on rebuilding from it.  There remain some issues of  public nature and infrastructure has never been addressed, etc.. all those things might become apparent over that period. 

What do you think?  I really am here to learn and understand others as well as to stick to my guns if I just don't see it Smile
The current economic policy is based on the idea that business cycles have radically changed in length. I call this the Dow 36,000 hypothesis, because it was first floated in 1999 book of that name which called for a Dow of 36K by around 2005. Well that didn't happen, but it *could have* happened (not by 2005, but maybe 2008-10)  if the 2001 recession had been delayed for a decade or so.

Today we are in the midst of another, very long, business cycle/bull market. The tax cut was passed at a point where the market had reached 1929-type valuation. This is either an extraordinarily reckless policy (if you believe that business cycles will continue to operate as they did in the past) or a gutsy strategy if you believe that it is different this time, i.e. *this* time the Dow 36K hypothesis will be valid (I will point out that one of the authors of this policy was one of the authors of Dow 36,000).  If they are right then the business cycle will continue for many more years and the Dow will rise to 60K+ in the next five years. If this happens one could well argue that the 1T has already begun.

I am kinda of old fashioned and tend not to buy "this time it's different" stories. So I think we go down hard, and get a bigger crisis and the 4T restructuring issues that policy makers avoided in 2001-2002, and dodged again in 2008-2009, will *have* to be dealt with. Fifteen years ago I was already saying that in this 4T we *know* how to solve the structural problems technically, we just don't want to. Thus, the 4T is going to be about getting to the point where we *have to* address these issues. We have been engaging in stupid, reckless behavior since at least 1991, relying on our hegemonic status to keep bailing us out of our self-generated messes.

But we now have a massive financial bubble, a president working overtime to destroy our relations with friendly countries (something that had to happen as our empire is one of the structural problems to be addressed in this 4T) it can all so easily collapse into rubble, which if it leads to productive policy instead half-measures, could result in the sort of restructuring normal for a 4T.

On the other hand, be might be able to keep the ship of state afloat for a few more years until the social moment passes, and then begin a new, austere, saeculum in which we gradually slide into irrelevance, like imperial Spain in the 17th century.
Reply
#17
(05-22-2018, 10:25 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-22-2018, 07:10 PM)Mikebert Wrote: Welcome Nomad

I use a generation model to structure the saeculum. Basically I start with a core social moment, the Revolutionary era, which I date from 1774 (1st Continental Congress) to 1789 (Constitution ratified). I define a dominant gen who comes of age (age 21) during this time and subtract 21 from the 1774-89 dates to get birth dates. I then add the average age of political leaders (from Howe's database) to determine when they came to power, which defines the next social moment.  I then repeat the process over and over again generation the cycle down through to today. The projected 4T from this approach is 2005-2023, which is based on when Boomers (as predicted by the model, which is slightly different from he S&H dates) are supposed to be in power based on that two century old starting point.

Now empirically, one can make a case for a 4T start in 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005/6, 2008, 2010 or 2016. I favor 2008 for the start of the social moment and expect it to last until around 2024. One can fill it out on each end with a couple of cusp years if one likes.

As for what's left in the 4T, well I note that there are many cycles like the S&H one and these offer insight that can be used to flesh out the S&H-derived picture. For example Steve Skowronek has an interesting presidential cycle that I find useful.  If you search on his name you can read a bit on it. An interesting twist would be if Trump turns out to the a disjunctive-type president in his cycle.

Then there is the Schlesinger cycle and the associated critical elections. Social moments since the Transcendental 2T has all had a critical election. Current candidates for these are 2008 and 2016. If Trump wins re-election then 2008 is ruled out as a critical election.  If he loses then 2016 is eliminated. If the parties just keep on switching every two terms as they have since 1992, then neither will be and this critical election rule will be violated, suggesting that something has changed fundamentally with the cycles.

There is also an economic cycle called the K-cycle, which has been aligned with turnings over the last century. A 3T/4T turning transition is associated with the start of the "winter season" of the K-cycle, which has happened most recently in 1929 and 2008.

Based on all this, I am looking for a recession to start later this year and Trump to not win re-election as a result, thus confirming the 2008 critical election and making a 2008 4T start a very good bet.

I believe the stock market is extremely overvalued and will eventually decline, but it is taking its sweet time. When it does it should go down to 8000 on the Dow or below, which is a long way down, which I think would probably give us another financial crisis and serious recession, making Trump a disjunctive president and the next president a FDR/Reagan-type figure according to the Skowronek model. Such a set of events would serve as an S&H 4T climax like 1781 or 1941, which is usually the last big event of the 4T.  It would then sputter out some years later.

That's a lot of information lol.... I appreciate it.   I do hope you're wrong.  No matter what my political beliefs, no one can really say our economy is not revived.  I will say people got left behind along the way.  Some never re-entered the job force.  I am not personally savvy with market stats.  However, the unemployment rate is even a little too low.  Inflation is not very present.  If there is another financial crisis, it would take a lot longer than 5-6 years to heal again from that.  When you get to the end of a cycle, there is the blurring of is it crisis or high -- you are saying 2023-24, if we crash again, that upswing will be really late.  Contrarily, there has not been an enormous re-inventing of our civilization.  I must say, if we are to crash again, it can only be with such force we may not continue as a people.  When I think that, I have to conclude the "soft reboot" has already happened.  Now, we are moving into full-on rebuilding from it.  There remain some issues of  public nature and infrastructure has never been addressed, etc.. all those things might become apparent over that period. 

What do you think?  I really am here to learn and understand others as well as to stick to my guns if I just don't see it Smile

Well, here I am.

We are in a Crisis Era, and in no other time (except perhaps the end of a 3T in which incompetent leadership like Pierce, Fillmore, Harding/Coolidge, or George W. Bush can bumble into into a Crisis era) is the quality of leadership so important. Obama didn't create any problems except for stirring up mass resentment for what he was and is. Donald Trump is a political disaster just waiting to do great harm by intensifying such polarization as we have. That is the "F--- YOU!" style of leadership in contempt for the near-majority that he tries to suppress or marginalize.

Such is not good for creating the social concord necessary for beating a secular nemesis that poses great danger to the mainstream of public life -- the British Empire in 1776 and later the near-anarchy of the new republic, the Confederacy, or the gangster Axis regimes. We had Samuel Adams and George Washington for the Crisis of 1780, Lincoln for the Crisis of 1860, and FDR for the Crisis of 1940. We had Barack Obama, who by any rational assessment is a near-ideal leader for a Crisis (not even Lincoln and FDR were perfect, and in a Crisis as at no other time it is grossly unwise to let the Perfect be the enemy of the Good).

Trump is horrid. It's not that I am a liberal; if it takes an arch-reactionary traditionalist like Sir Winston Churchill to fend off dangers that fit the "demonic" category, then so be it. We would be doing well enough with an arch-conservative who has the integrity, wisdom, eloquence, imagination, respect for precedent and protocol, mastery of history, and overall decency of Obama. Donald Trump has the "reactionary" part down well, but nothing else.

If you have seen the movies Their Darkest Hour and Dunkirk, then you are reminded in cinematic form of how dangerous a Crisis Era can be if you missed your history lessons. You also recognize how different Churchill was from Trump. Churchill reserved his sharpest deprecation for the Enemy... and recognized that people not conservative (or Conservative) had as much stake in keeping the Wehrmacht, SS, and Gestapo out of Britain as did the usual constituency for conservatism. He also respected the limits of human capacity to endure hardship and the need to preserve old decencies -- like a free press and a competitive politics necessary for keeping him honest. Trump sees any form of opposition to his selfish, bigoted agenda as treachery.

Yes, there were British people in the 1930s calling for making Britain great again -- the British Union of Fascists and National Socialists. Sure -- great in human suffering in concentration camps, torture chambers, and ghettos. By 1940 the BUF was irrelevant (some of its figures, like "Lord Haw-Haw", having gone to Germany and doing treason), and Britain had a focus on survival -- to not be defeated.

The extreme selfishness, arrogance, and ruthlessness of our current President (what Howe and Strauss consider the most dangerous traits of an Idealist generation) could create a Crisis in itself. He could create a political mess without precedent in American history through a bungled foreign policy.  In the event of an economic meltdown he might offer solutions completely wrong for America, such as show projects that cost  greatly and do little good. (America did such great projects as Hoover dam, the Pasadena Freeway and the original segment of the Pennsylvania Turnpike, the George Washington and Golden Gate bridges still useful to this date, but as a rule there was cost-benefit analysis.

The best idealist leaders are erudite, principled, and cultured. They know enough to leave the practical details to people who have shown the flair for the nitty-gritty of enterprise and administration -- and the grunt work to people who will do it out of economic necessity and a recognition that they are the only ones fit to do it.

For this Crisis to go well, Donald Trump really must go, as must his cronies and stooges. Such will take until at least January 2021.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
#18
(05-22-2018, 11:56 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-22-2018, 10:37 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: First of all, I see Donald Trump
Other Side
torture chambers, purges reminiscent of witch-hunts
Donald Trump
political stooges
the essence of liberal democracy will be at risk
military coup
incompetent and unpopular leadership
Trump and his associates

I must say in humor, you are obviously a baby boomer who would rather throw down on a battlefield than see someone not of your ilk in power.  They got that right!  Receive it in all humor, friend Smile

I'm a Nomad and we don't give a shit who does what so long as there is progress.  


So thank god when your generation gets flushed and we can actually start moving into the High Smile


Obama is no Boomer, but he was fine.

I can judge the rogues (like Karl Rove and Jack Abramoff) in my generation quite well, thank you.

Trump is the sort of leader who makes Karl Marx relevant in a capitalist society. Now that is incompetence and malignancy!

...All in all I see one cause to this Crisis that we must meet. We are at the end of the era in which more material productivity does not lead to human happiness. We are on the verge of material surfeit in which simplification requires that we divest ourselves of some excess. I just did some house-cleaning -- a purge. Mopping, vacuuming, dish-washing, laundry, and dusting are easy. Even mowing a lawn is tedious and tiring -- but at least one can keep going and get a good result. Selecting what to keep and what to discard based on technological obsolescence, waning irrelevance, and wear is more difficult and even heart-rending. But even so I have more CDs and recorded video than I need. But those are reasonably compact.

I may not be as bad as the hoarders on reality TV who have kept stacks of old newspapers and magazines, auto parts, and worse. (Old pizza boxes never cleaned? Yuck!) These people can't find their way around their abodes that have become filthy firetraps. But I have found plenty for the landfill. OK, so at some point you must decide that before you bring in something new you must discard something else. So it is, obviously, with something so perishable as food. Obviously stuff breaks and you must replace it. Threadbare clothing? Farewell! Old maps, programs for events long in the past, and outdated pop culture? Bye, bye! Simplify, simplify, simplify. If you wouldn't buy it again, then you probably don't need it. Donate it or discard it. If we still have the commodity fetish, we will end up with an unmanageable mess.

Do you remember what Karl Marx said of the proletariat? It has nothing but its labor to sell as a commodity. In the early industrial era (the Gilded Age in America and its equivalents at mostly later times in history) labor was available cheaply. About 1900, American capitalists found that if they were to sell their production they would need the proletariat as a market. During the Great Depression, any doubts about that need vanished. So we find the difference between early capitalism (produce, but stick the workers in poverty) and more modern capitalism (dependent upon a working class that is the bulk of the market). The latter is better, but further improvements in our lives are unlikely to result from greater productivity. There's only so much stuff that we legitimately need.

Note well: industrial workers (and for that matter, service workers who endure proletarian conditions, which distinguishes a middle-class CPA from a domestic servant or a bank teller) still have nothing to sell but their labor. Right-wing interests see a solution in allowing market power to squeeze the proletariat even more so that the elites can enjoy aristocratic excess.

In recent decades there were checks upon the rapaciousness of our economic elites -- owners and executives alike. One was that many learned some ethical values in liberal arts classes in college. Our budding executives seem to avoid anything that would challenge the dubious merits of greed and indulgence. One was that they might have had some religion other than identity. The secularization of American culture happened with the economic elites first. One was a market that put some restraints on executive compensation; bureaucratic power dictates executive compensation as business becomes less competitive in the tendency toward monopoly and crony capitalism. One is the attitude that a business thrived if it was 'one happy family'. To many owners and executives, workers are now simply inputs -- livestock at best and vermin at worst. Finally, as late as the early 1990s we had business executives who remembered the last completed Fourth Turning in full. That is over.

It may take an economic meltdown as severe and protracted as that of 1929-1932 to force Americans to rediscover the basic decency that comes from caring for others in bad situations because even if they are not in economic distress they fear such themselves. People like Donald Trump who believe that no human suffering is in excess if it enriches them  and enforces their power are the vehicles for bringing such a meltdown.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#19
I personally question the notion that the Boomers will start giving up power in 5 years or so. In 5 years they will range between 63-80. With improved health (compared with past saeculums) and with the benefits of technology, I think they will hang on to power as long as they can, and that will be much beyond age 63. They won't go without a fight.

And that will give them loads of time to make reactionary decisions (or to continue to), that we are left to deal with for a very long time.
"But there's a difference between error and dishonesty, and it's not a trivial difference." - Ben Greenman
"Relax, it'll be all right, and by that I mean it will first get worse."
"How was I supposed to know that there'd be consequences for my actions?" - Gina Linetti
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#20
Video 
(05-23-2018, 11:44 AM)tg63 Wrote: I personally question the notion that the Boomers will start giving up power in 5 years or so. In 5 years they will range between 63-80. With improved health (compared with past saeculums) and with the benefits of technology, I think they will hang on to power as long as they can, and that will be much beyond age 63. They won't go without a fight.

And that will give them loads of time to make reactionary decisions (or to continue to), that we are left to deal with for a very long time.

Boomers will not simply disappear from public life just because Donald Trump leaves the scene. They will lose their ability to decide which boomer leadership shall prevail. That may be just as well. Younger generations may decide which sort of Boomers have the apices of power. That may ensure that people get Idealist virtues (vision, principle, and decisiveness) without the worst vices (ruthlessness, arrogance, and selfishness) in top leadership. The sort of person who exploits others while demanding to be seen as a benefactor will be a reject for both X and Millennial adults.

That will be a huge improvement. It might not be best to cast off the Boom generation altogether so long as it has people of great ability. Even if we get an X President (we already have had one), then there will be cabinet officers and of course leadership in Congress. Donald Trump is not the definitive Boomer; he is simply the worst sort of Idealist leader short of the Old Bolsheviks and Stalin.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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