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Looking Toward The Next High
#41
(05-24-2018, 06:59 PM)TheNomad Wrote: So describe the continued Crisis as you see it.  Who is involved at all generational levels, what exactly will be the war of unconditional surrender, who fights in it, by what mandate do you see people sending millennials and artists into the woodchipper, etc.  Fighting as you describe it mean these people are going to sign themselves up and their protective parents are going to let encourage and support them.  Remember, Nomads are too old to be fighting this war, the one thing I learned about Heroes is they do not get sent down the drain under any circumstance. 

Artists are 18 right now if you keep the bracket at 2002.  Born after the beginning of Crisis, never knowing what it was like prior to the Crisis, coming to age IN the Crisis.

You have a lot of confidence in me as a prophet Smile

I have given some indications in my new book, but I still have to look it up. Here's one paragraph I wrote: 

So, in spite of its domestic conflicts, foreign affairs won't leave Americans alone in the 2020s. The war likely to break out at the end of 2020 will certainly demand attention. The Fall Equinox chart puts Mars right near the Descendant (house of war) in Washington DC. The USA might take an aggressive stance toward the troublemakers, but because it is consumed at home, it will not be able to put any swords behind its words. The chart indicates that Russia and West Africa (e.g. Ghana, Libya) will be targeted for these troubles. Then, a month after Mars in Aries turns direct in November, in square to Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto, a powerful solar eclipse on December 14 looms over the world. The month following the eclipse will be very dangerous. The chart shows that the Middle East (probably Syria), Russia, India, China, Korea and even Japan may get involved. Just like the phrase in the Bible, wars and rumors of wars could erupt in diverse places.


So, as Anthony has also said, in Dec./Jan.2021 it looks like a big war will break out. But the war cycle says the USA will mostly stay out of it. I didn't write much about 2025, except to say it will be in Asia, so I should take another look at that. Probably, whatever breaks out in 2021 in whatever places will likely still be at war in 2025, and will threaten USA interests, as perceived by the powers that be at the time.

I don't know if I agree with what you said about Heroes/civics in general. They have always been willing soldiers. But it could be that in this case, the USA will go to war, but lots of heroes will resist or refuse to go. We live in the era following the great peace movement of the sixties. War is no longer so popular. So we'll see. The foreign war and the domestic battles could be linked.

I have a lot clearer handle on the domestic situation. The double rhythm theory has been propagated here by me, Chas Donald and others. I see it as alternating between predominantly foreign and domestic crises; the enemy without or the enemy within. Both elements appear, but one or the other is preeminent. Our 4T is a domestic one, predominantly. The cold civil war has been going on for decades now. People online may say that they don't subscribe to it, and yet politically the dominant trend is ever-tighter polarization. The reactionaries are fanatical, and the progressives are ever more energized and revved up. So the cold civil war could get hot. 

I think the only route to success is if by 2025-26, when it breaks out, the progressives have the government, and the reactionaries rebel. In the USA, a revolution is unlikely to succeed, so it's better if it's a reactionary one. I think that's how it will go down. I see a possible secession movement, and sporadic battles, over a 2-3 year period. The rebellion will be put down without as much trouble as during the civil war. The heroes and early artists will be willing soldiers on the progressive blue side, spurred on by blue boomer and Xer leaders as well as young millennial leaders, while in red states heroes led by Gen Xers will be aroused by the hatred and fears that have been passed down to them. Guns will be the trigger issue, along with taxes and racial hatreds and fears. Trump has aroused the fever and it will continue.

If the generation bracket is 2002, then artists are 16 now, not 18. I would put it one or two years later, but that's pretty close.

I see a positive outcome. The reforms will be secured, and they may go a lot farther than we can realistically expect now. Once a 4T energy is unleashed, it can go pretty far.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
#42
(05-24-2018, 10:47 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 06:59 PM)TheNomad Wrote: So describe the continued Crisis as you see it.  Who is involved at all generational levels, what exactly will be the war of unconditional surrender, who fights in it, by what mandate do you see people sending millennials and artists into the woodchipper, etc.  Fighting as you describe it mean these people are going to sign themselves up and their protective parents are going to let encourage and support them.  Remember, Nomads are too old to be fighting this war, the one thing I learned about Heroes is they do not get sent down the drain under any circumstance. 

Artists are 18 right now if you keep the bracket at 2002.  Born after the beginning of Crisis, never knowing what it was like prior to the Crisis, coming to age IN the Crisis.

You have a lot of confidence in me as a prophet Smile

I have given some indications in my new book, but I still have to look it up. Here's one paragraph I wrote: 

So, in spite of its domestic conflicts, foreign affairs won't leave Americans alone in the 2020s. The war likely to break out at the end of 2020 will certainly demand attention. The Fall Equinox chart puts Mars right near the Descendant (house of war) in Washington DC. The USA might take an aggressive stance toward the troublemakers, but because it is consumed at home, it will not be able to put any swords behind its words. The chart indicates that Russia and West Africa (e.g. Ghana, Libya) will be targeted for these troubles. Then, a month after Mars in Aries turns direct in November, in square to Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto, a powerful solar eclipse on December 14 looms over the world. The month following the eclipse will be very dangerous. The chart shows that the Middle East (probably Syria), Russia, India, China, Korea and even Japan may get involved. Just like the phrase in the Bible, wars and rumors of wars could erupt in diverse places.


So, as Anthony has also said, in Dec./Jan.2021 it looks like a big war will break out. But the war cycle says the USA will mostly stay out of it. I didn't write much about 2025, except to say it will be in Asia, so I should take another look at that. Probably, whatever breaks out in 2021 in whatever places will likely still be at war in 2025, and will threaten USA interests, as perceived by the powers that be at the time.

I don't know I agree with what you said about Heroes/civics in general. They have always been willing soldiers. But it could be that in this case, the USA will go to war, but lots of heroes will resist or refuse to go. We live in the era following the great peace movement of the sixties. War is no longer so popular. So we'll see. The foreign war and the domestic battles could be linked.

I have a lot clearer handle on the domestic situation. The double rhythm theory has been propagated here by me, Chas Donald and others. I see it as alternating between predominantly foreign and domestic crises; the enemy without or the enemy within. Both elements appear, but one or the other is preeminent. Our 4T is a domestic one, predominantly. The cold civil war has been going on for decades now. People online may say that they don't subscribe to it, and yet politically the dominant trend is ever-tighter polarization. The reactionaries are fanatical, and the progressives are ever more energized and revved up. So the cold civil war could get hot. 

I think the only route to success is if by 2025-26, when it breaks out, the progressives have the government, and the reactionaries rebel. In the USA, a revolution is unlikely to succeed, so it's better if it's a reactionary one. I think that's how it will go down. I see a possible secession movement, and sporadic battles, over a 2-3 year period. The rebellion will be put down without as much trouble as during the civil war. The heroes and early artists will be willing soldiers on the progressive blue side, spurred on by blue boomer and Xer leaders as well as young millennial leaders, while in red states heroes led by Gen Xers will be aroused by the hatred and fears that have been passed down to them. Guns will be the trigger issue, along with taxes and racial hatreds and fears. Trump has aroused the fever and it will continue.

If the generation bracket is 2002, then artists are 16 now, not 18. I would put it one or two years later, but that's pretty close.

I see a positive outcome. The reforms will be secured, and they may go a lot farther than we can realistically expect now. Once a 4T energy is unleashed, it can go pretty far.

Oh!  So I was right you are approaching this from eschatological and religious dogma... or "prophecy".  I've said this is a mega indicator for people your age in sort of needing some apocalyptic showdown, Jack Van Impe style... and you even have the stars aligning for it!  How fun. 

WHAT is your book?  I will go through this more, there was a lot.
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#43
(05-24-2018, 06:59 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 06:28 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I think that in saying that the wars domestic and foreign will be less severe and not armageddon or holocaust, that I am not doing the boomer thing you suggest. Many others in these forums believe things will be much worse. From the resistance to change I see, I can't see that it's anything but a brick wall that needs to be punched down. I don't think it's because I want it that way; it's been that way for 40 years, and increasingly so. And it seems to me that a crisis of the kind that S&H predicted will happen because of it.

I don't think the airport thing is anything but an irritant. No I certainly don't think 9-11 changed America. It was an excuse for the military industrial complex and "neocon" war mentality just to continue as it had been before the Cold War ended. It was business as usual resuming, not because boomers wanted it that way, but because the MIC wanted it that way. And there are wars in all turnings; a 4T war has been a total war fought with the intent of gaining unconditional surrender; Iraq and Afghanistan were not that.

I totally get that you don't want to call the other side evil. Rhetoric can be a problem, but I have never subscribed to the idea that it's the main problem. If people are determined in their actions solely by reaction to bad rhetoric, then they are not paying attention. It's the problems themselves that are the problem, not how we talk about them.

I'm sure we want a lot of the same things. There will be plenty of people in America who do so that a consensus will eventually develop, but more new folks have to come on the scene and older ones leave, and a lot of the folks resisting change will need to be convinced or forced to stop resisting and cooperate instead of being so attached to the ideologies they hold: free market, religious right, etc.; a resistance that unfortunately makes a crisis necessary that hasn't happened yet.

I don't buy that today's 18-year olds are artist archetypes. I know David Hogg calls himself a millennial, and so do the others. Only the 14-year olds are artists. We can disagree about that though, and that's cool. I just see no basis for speeding up the saeculum. It is 82 years long, and is proceeding just as I predicted. We can't always get what we want. The 4T may not be as severe as some fervent boomers or others want, but it may not be as quick and easy as you or some others prefer either. I don't quite understand why some S&H followers somehow think the saeculum will suddenly speed up and go by faster than they said it would, especially in regard to the lynchpin of the whole cycle, the great crisis that returns every 80+ years. We ain't seen nothin' yet.

The seeds are being planted for a 1T, because the possibility exists now that a millennial surge supported by older folks in positions of power facilitating it will establish the moral and political tenets that will power to victory in this 4T, and be the foundation for the 1T consensus to come. That was no different from what happened with the declaration of independence, or the reaction to the Dred Scot decision in the abolitionist movement, or the New Deal and the reaction to Pearl Harbor. Lots of fighting was still ahead, and it's ahead of us now, just as the students at the March for Our Lives rally say.

So describe the continued Crisis as you see it.  Who is involved at all generational levels, what exactly will be the war of unconditional surrender, who fights in it, by what mandate do you see people sending millennials and artists into the woodchipper, etc.  Fighting as you describe it mean these people are going to sign themselves up and their protective parents are going to let encourage and support them.  Remember, Nomads are too old to be fighting this war, the one thing I learned about Heroes is they do not get sent down the drain under any circumstance. 

Artists are 18 right now if you keep the bracket at 2002.  Born after the beginning of Crisis, never knowing what it was like prior to the Crisis, coming to age IN the Crisis.

The successful completion of a Crisis requires that the bad 3T behavior that precipitated the Crisis or made it particularly destructive must die. For America, that implied that the tendency toward a bubble economy had to be so discredited that the stock market valuations of 1929 and would not reach the nominal highs of the 1929 bubble until 1952, that the pseudoscience of eugenics would need to be disgraced (the racist ideology of Nazi Germany would be exposed for its consequences while out of practical concerns America would have to give opportunities to ethnic groups then marginal as recent immigrants, as it is hard to keep former "Major Kowalski" or "Lieutenant Commander Rossi" out of the middle class after the Second World War ended), the mindless mass culture of the 1920s would have to become irrelevant, and gangsterism would have to be extirpated.  If we Americans don't solve those problems ourselves, then maybe some other power will do such for us on terms of their choosing -- as we did to Italy, Japan, and in Germany (at least the American zone of occupation).

No, we didn't have to extirpate Goethe, Verdi, or Hokusai. Of anything, Americans were told to appreciate them if they so desired. Goethe didn't put people into concentration camps, Verdi might as well have been an American, and Hokusai had nothing to do with the Bataan Death March. But we did put an end to fascist politics. We closed the concentration camps and torture chambers -- and prosecuted those who made them so horrible much as we prosecuted Capone-era gangsters.  (The Nazi Party was the worst syndicate of organized crime ever -- was it not?) We gave the vote to women in Italy and Japan because women were less likely to fall for extremist, militaristic causes than were men. We insisted that racism and religious bigotry be expunged from the educational process along with militarist values.

If we do not extirpate the neo-con militarism, gangs such as MS-13, the influence of the Russian Mafia upon politics and business, the gun culture (sport hunting and target shooting exempt), and the extreme economic inequality... then someone else will.

The generational cycle may not predict when 4T events culminate in the establishment of a new social order, but it certainly establishes a window of time in which such is possible. Events that define the end of a 4T happen rapidly. At some time, the Apocalypse loses its sustainability. The taste of destruction becomes unpleasant even for the victors. That will be in at most five years. From the Boston Tea Party to the ratification of the Constitution was slightly less than twenty years. From the Panic of 1857 to Juneteenth was about eight years. From the nearly-simultaneous accessions of FDR and Satan Incarnate in their respective countries to V-J day was a little over twelve years. 


One biological reality has made this Crisis Era different from the others: the increased life-spans that have allowed people to remain active in public life into their seventies and eighties. It is worth remembering that Abraham Lincoln, who was only in his fifties, was seen as an old man in his time. FDR was 62 when he died. In the 2020 election, Boomers may still be relevant -- and the youngest will be 60. Six-zero. With good habits (avoiding tobacco and heavy drinking, having a reasonable weight, and remaining intellectually and physically active) that the GI generation introduced, there will be plenty of active, if undeniably old, Boomers. But if the optimum for a Crisis Era is an aging Idealist, the second-best choice is a Reactive who has little of a personal agenda, respects precedent and protocol, eschews corruption, has no cynicism, and is erudite and flexible.  Obama may have been the ideal post-Crisis leader, but we got him early. He may not have been ruthless enough to deal with the well-heeled opponents who could still buy the political process, but at least he did not sell out to them. Trump did sell out to them after promising everything to everyone, and that is a disaster. 

Unless Republicans succeed in rigging the next midterm (seemingly anything is possible in a 4T, much of it bad) and the next Presidential election, we just might let elections solve our political pathology.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
#44
(05-24-2018, 11:55 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 10:47 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 06:59 PM)TheNomad Wrote: So describe the continued Crisis as you see it.  Who is involved at all generational levels, what exactly will be the war of unconditional surrender, who fights in it, by what mandate do you see people sending millennials and artists into the woodchipper, etc.  Fighting as you describe it mean these people are going to sign themselves up and their protective parents are going to let encourage and support them.  Remember, Nomads are too old to be fighting this war, the one thing I learned about Heroes is they do not get sent down the drain under any circumstance. 

Artists are 18 right now if you keep the bracket at 2002.  Born after the beginning of Crisis, never knowing what it was like prior to the Crisis, coming to age IN the Crisis.

You have a lot of confidence in me as a prophet Smile

I have given some indications in my new book, but I still have to look it up. Here's one paragraph I wrote: 

So, in spite of its domestic conflicts, foreign affairs won't leave Americans alone in the 2020s. The war likely to break out at the end of 2020 will certainly demand attention. The Fall Equinox chart puts Mars right near the Descendant (house of war) in Washington DC. The USA might take an aggressive stance toward the troublemakers, but because it is consumed at home, it will not be able to put any swords behind its words. The chart indicates that Russia and West Africa (e.g. Ghana, Libya) will be targeted for these troubles. Then, a month after Mars in Aries turns direct in November, in square to Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto, a powerful solar eclipse on December 14 looms over the world. The month following the eclipse will be very dangerous. The chart shows that the Middle East (probably Syria), Russia, India, China, Korea and even Japan may get involved. Just like the phrase in the Bible, wars and rumors of wars could erupt in diverse places.


So, as Anthony has also said, in Dec./Jan.2021 it looks like a big war will break out. But the war cycle says the USA will mostly stay out of it. I didn't write much about 2025, except to say it will be in Asia, so I should take another look at that. Probably, whatever breaks out in 2021 in whatever places will likely still be at war in 2025, and will threaten USA interests, as perceived by the powers that be at the time.

I don't know I agree with what you said about Heroes/civics in general. They have always been willing soldiers. But it could be that in this case, the USA will go to war, but lots of heroes will resist or refuse to go. We live in the era following the great peace movement of the sixties. War is no longer so popular. So we'll see. The foreign war and the domestic battles could be linked.

I have a lot clearer handle on the domestic situation. The double rhythm theory has been propagated here by me, Chas Donald and others. I see it as alternating between predominantly foreign and domestic crises; the enemy without or the enemy within. Both elements appear, but one or the other is preeminent. Our 4T is a domestic one, predominantly. The cold civil war has been going on for decades now. People online may say that they don't subscribe to it, and yet politically the dominant trend is ever-tighter polarization. The reactionaries are fanatical, and the progressives are ever more energized and revved up. So the cold civil war could get hot. 

I think the only route to success is if by 2025-26, when it breaks out, the progressives have the government, and the reactionaries rebel. In the USA, a revolution is unlikely to succeed, so it's better if it's a reactionary one. I think that's how it will go down. I see a possible secession movement, and sporadic battles, over a 2-3 year period. The rebellion will be put down without as much trouble as during the civil war. The heroes and early artists will be willing soldiers on the progressive blue side, spurred on by blue boomer and Xer leaders as well as young millennial leaders, while in red states heroes led by Gen Xers will be aroused by the hatred and fears that have been passed down to them. Guns will be the trigger issue, along with taxes and racial hatreds and fears. Trump has aroused the fever and it will continue.

If the generation bracket is 2002, then artists are 16 now, not 18. I would put it one or two years later, but that's pretty close.

I see a positive outcome. The reforms will be secured, and they may go a lot farther than we can realistically expect now. Once a 4T energy is unleashed, it can go pretty far.

Oh!  So I was right you are approaching this from eschatological and religious dogma... or "prophecy".  I've said this is a mega indicator for people your age in sort of needing some apocalyptic showdown, Jack Van Impe style... and you even have the stars aligning for it!  How fun. 

WHAT is your book?  I will go through this more, there was a lot.

You can't discount the difference between left and right among people my age. That gives you a distorted picture. The difference in society today is mainly between left and right, not between generations, despite whatever people may say.

I don't refer to religious dogma of the Jack Van Impe style at all. My cyclic planetary research is based on discovering patterns of correlation. This research is essentially empirical. Scientists may say this is not causation, but astrology refers to causes that go beyond mechanical causation, which philosophy and science itself has cast doubt on. 

The right-wingers are interested in the Biblical prophecy of an apocalyptic type, but that's not me. Liberals and leftists are interested in progress, and some visionaries maybe see some kind of new age or radical utopia. I don't see the apocalyptic scenario ushering in a utopia in this 4T. I just envision what may happen based on the cyclic patterns, just like the generational cycle, and I also make use of data from that generation cycle and others, and the facts on the ground and in society. You can't ignore those facts and then attribute what I say to an apocalyptic scenario I supposedly believe in just because I'm a boomer.

http://philosopherswheel.com/book.htm

By the way, Pat Robertson was born in 1930 and Jack Van Impe in 1931. They are Silents.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
#45
(05-21-2018, 07:34 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Much of it depends upon how the Fourth Turning crisis ends -- victory or defeat, survival of Humanity/civilization/technology/capitalism...survival of the American political system was not a sure thing in 1930. This Crisis begins with a huge inventory of nukes in place instead of being recent introductions to the military arsenal at the end.

In the original 4T book the authors described a crisis period is one in which social problems largely deferred during the 3T are addressed and dealt with. So far this does not seem to be happening via any large scale, and this is no doubt why a lot of people including posters here think that the 3T might have long overstayed its welcome. Here I shall share a post I just posted on another forum pertaining to this very issue in response to a 30-year-old man evicted by his own parents due to his deadbeat status:


I say much the same thing even though I don't justify the type of deadbeat status this guy embarked on. But I don believe that we have serious economic maladies that most seem to be afraid of seriously challenging. They are easily ignored by the MSM and other PTB so as not to cause friction. This is one of the key reasons why even Bernie Sanders' Presidential campaign was largely ignored for as long as possible. This because he was one of the few that had the balls to challenge said circumstances. Moving toward a new, more just paradigm is something the top 25% are deathly afraid of, or so it seems. Yet we need this energy – the hope, expanded community, generosity and
compassion. It helps us move beyond personal beliefs that divide us into
universal understanding and connectedness.Many including myself at times consider the social media now in vogue to subtract from true connectedness. Maybe today's world can take some lessons from the Boomers philosophy of their "free love" stage and ask this question: How will you open your heart a little bit more to yourself and all of us?


PS: It does seem very much as though most are simply too afraid to upset the corporate apple cart.
Reply
#46
(05-24-2018, 10:47 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 06:59 PM)TheNomad Wrote: So describe the continued Crisis as you see it.  Who is involved at all generational levels, what exactly will be the war of unconditional surrender, who fights in it, by what mandate do you see people sending millennials and artists into the woodchipper, etc.  Fighting as you describe it mean these people are going to sign themselves up and their protective parents are going to let encourage and support them.  Remember, Nomads are too old to be fighting this war, the one thing I learned about Heroes is they do not get sent down the drain under any circumstance. 

Artists are 18 right now if you keep the bracket at 2002.  Born after the beginning of Crisis, never knowing what it was like prior to the Crisis, coming to age IN the Crisis.

You have a lot of confidence in me as a prophet Smile

I have given some indications in my new book, but I still have to look it up. Here's one paragraph I wrote: 

So, in spite of its domestic conflicts, foreign affairs won't leave Americans alone in the 2020s. The war likely to break out at the end of 2020 will certainly demand attention. The Fall Equinox chart puts Mars right near the Descendant (house of war) in Washington DC. The USA might take an aggressive stance toward the troublemakers, but because it is consumed at home, it will not be able to put any swords behind its words. The chart indicates that Russia and West Africa (e.g. Ghana, Libya) will be targeted for these troubles. Then, a month after Mars in Aries turns direct in November, in square to Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto, a powerful solar eclipse on December 14 looms over the world. The month following the eclipse will be very dangerous. The chart shows that the Middle East (probably Syria), Russia, India, China, Korea and even Japan may get involved. Just like the phrase in the Bible, wars and rumors of wars could erupt in diverse places.


So, as Anthony has also said, in Dec./Jan.2021 it looks like a big war will break out. But the war cycle says the USA will mostly stay out of it. I didn't write much about 2025, except to say it will be in Asia, so I should take another look at that. Probably, whatever breaks out in 2021 in whatever places will likely still be at war in 2025, and will threaten USA interests, as perceived by the powers that be at the time.

I don't know if I agree with what you said about Heroes/civics in general. They have always been willing soldiers. But it could be that in this case, the USA will go to war, but lots of heroes will resist or refuse to go. We live in the era following the great peace movement of the sixties. War is no longer so popular. So we'll see. The foreign war and the domestic battles could be linked.

I have a lot clearer handle on the domestic situation. The double rhythm theory has been propagated here by me, Chas Donald and others. I see it as alternating between predominantly foreign and domestic crises; the enemy without or the enemy within. Both elements appear, but one or the other is preeminent. Our 4T is a domestic one, predominantly. The cold civil war has been going on for decades now. People online may say that they don't subscribe to it, and yet politically the dominant trend is ever-tighter polarization. The reactionaries are fanatical, and the progressives are ever more energized and revved up. So the cold civil war could get hot. 

I think the only route to success is if by 2025-26, when it breaks out, the progressives have the government, and the reactionaries rebel. In the USA, a revolution is unlikely to succeed, so it's better if it's a reactionary one. I think that's how it will go down. I see a possible secession movement, and sporadic battles, over a 2-3 year period. The rebellion will be put down without as much trouble as during the civil war. The heroes and early artists will be willing soldiers on the progressive blue side, spurred on by blue boomer and Xer leaders as well as young millennial leaders, while in red states heroes led by Gen Xers will be aroused by the hatred and fears that have been passed down to them. Guns will be the trigger issue, along with taxes and racial hatreds and fears. Trump has aroused the fever and it will continue.

If the generation bracket is 2002, then artists are 16 now, not 18. I would put it one or two years later, but that's pretty close.

I see a positive outcome. The reforms will be secured, and they may go a lot farther than we can realistically expect now. Once a 4T energy is unleashed, it can go pretty far.
Per your next to last line, the name Homeland Generation was given to those born mostly from the time of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks for the reason that homeland security became a new cabinet department. That date is closer to 2002 than to 2000, so that would be about right.

Also, why do you feel that a revolution in the US is unlikely to succeed? Because we might get a Napoleon clone like France got after their revolution? We have the closest thing to a Napoleon-type in power right now. Might there be another equivalent of Grant vs. Lee?
Reply
#47
We are going to have to hit bottom so that we can get out of denial. Economic inequality is pointlessly severe. Lobbyists call the shots in Congress and most State legislatures. Gun violence is a disgrace in America. We have millions of Americans who accept nonsense as science.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
#48
(05-25-2018, 05:36 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 06:59 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 06:28 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I think that in saying that the wars domestic and foreign will be less severe and not armageddon or holocaust, that I am not doing the boomer thing you suggest. Many others in these forums believe things will be much worse. From the resistance to change I see, I can't see that it's anything but a brick wall that needs to be punched down. I don't think it's because I want it that way; it's been that way for 40 years, and increasingly so. And it seems to me that a crisis of the kind that S&H predicted will happen because of it.

I don't think the airport thing is anything but an irritant. No I certainly don't think 9-11 changed America. It was an excuse for the military industrial complex and "neocon" war mentality just to continue as it had been before the Cold War ended. It was business as usual resuming, not because boomers wanted it that way, but because the MIC wanted it that way. And there are wars in all turnings; a 4T war has been a total war fought with the intent of gaining unconditional surrender; Iraq and Afghanistan were not that.

I totally get that you don't want to call the other side evil. Rhetoric can be a problem, but I have never subscribed to the idea that it's the main problem. If people are determined in their actions solely by reaction to bad rhetoric, then they are not paying attention. It's the problems themselves that are the problem, not how we talk about them.

I'm sure we want a lot of the same things. There will be plenty of people in America who do so that a consensus will eventually develop, but more new folks have to come on the scene and older ones leave, and a lot of the folks resisting change will need to be convinced or forced to stop resisting and cooperate instead of being so attached to the ideologies they hold: free market, religious right, etc.; a resistance that unfortunately makes a crisis necessary that hasn't happened yet.

I don't buy that today's 18-year olds are artist archetypes. I know David Hogg calls himself a millennial, and so do the others. Only the 14-year olds are artists. We can disagree about that though, and that's cool. I just see no basis for speeding up the saeculum. It is 82 years long, and is proceeding just as I predicted. We can't always get what we want. The 4T may not be as severe as some fervent boomers or others want, but it may not be as quick and easy as you or some others prefer either. I don't quite understand why some S&H followers somehow think the saeculum will suddenly speed up and go by faster than they said it would, especially in regard to the lynchpin of the whole cycle, the great crisis that returns every 80+ years. We ain't seen nothin' yet.

The seeds are being planted for a 1T, because the possibility exists now that a millennial surge supported by older folks in positions of power facilitating it will establish the moral and political tenets that will power to victory in this 4T, and be the foundation for the 1T consensus to come. That was no different from what happened with the declaration of independence, or the reaction to the Dred Scot decision in the abolitionist movement, or the New Deal and the reaction to Pearl Harbor. Lots of fighting was still ahead, and it's ahead of us now, just as the students at the March for Our Lives rally say.

So describe the continued Crisis as you see it.  Who is involved at all generational levels, what exactly will be the war of unconditional surrender, who fights in it, by what mandate do you see people sending millennials and artists into the woodchipper, etc.  Fighting as you describe it mean these people are going to sign themselves up and their protective parents are going to let encourage and support them.  Remember, Nomads are too old to be fighting this war, the one thing I learned about Heroes is they do not get sent down the drain under any circumstance. 

Artists are 18 right now if you keep the bracket at 2002.  Born after the beginning of Crisis, never knowing what it was like prior to the Crisis, coming to age IN the Crisis.

The successful completion of a Crisis requires that the bad 3T behavior that precipitated the Crisis or made it particularly destructive must die. For America, that implied that the tendency toward a bubble economy had to be so discredited that the stock market valuations of 1929 and would not reach the nominal highs of the 1929 bubble until 1952, that the pseudoscience of eugenics would need to be disgraced (the racist ideology of Nazi Germany would be exposed for its consequences while out of practical concerns America would have to give opportunities to ethnic groups then marginal as recent immigrants, as it is hard to keep former "Major Kowalski" or "Lieutenant Commander Rossi" out of the middle class after the Second World War ended), the mindless mass culture of the 1920s would have to become irrelevant, and gangsterism would have to be extirpated.  If we Americans don't solve those problems ourselves, then maybe some other power will do such for us on terms of their choosing -- as we did to Italy, Japan, and in Germany (at least the American zone of occupation).

No, we didn't have to extirpate Goethe, Verdi, or Hokusai. Of anything, Americans were told to appreciate them if they so desired. Goethe didn't put people into concentration camps, Verdi might as well have been an American, and Hokusai had nothing to do with the Bataan Death March. But we did put an end to fascist politics. We closed the concentration camps and torture chambers -- and prosecuted those who made them so horrible much as we prosecuted Capone-era gangsters.  (The Nazi Party was the worst syndicate of organized crime ever -- was it not?) We gave the vote to women in Italy and Japan because women were less likely to fall for extremist, militaristic causes than were men. We insisted that racism and religious bigotry be expunged from the educational process along with militarist values.

If we do not extirpate the neo-con militarism, gangs such as MS-13, the influence of the Russian Mafia upon politics and business, the gun culture (sport hunting and target shooting exempt), and the extreme economic inequality... then someone else will.

The generational cycle may not predict when 4T events culminate in the establishment of a new social order, but it certainly establishes a window of time in which such is possible. Events that define the end of a 4T happen rapidly. At some time, the Apocalypse loses its sustainability. The taste of destruction becomes unpleasant even for the victors. That will be in at most five years. From the Boston Tea Party to the ratification of the Constitution was slightly less than twenty years. From the Panic of 1857 to Juneteenth was about eight years. From the nearly-simultaneous accessions of FDR and Satan Incarnate in their respective countries to V-J day was a little over twelve years. 


One biological reality has made this Crisis Era different from the others: the increased life-spans that have allowed people to remain active in public life into their seventies and eighties. It is worth remembering that Abraham Lincoln, who was only in his fifties, was seen as an old man in his time. FDR was 62 when he died. In the 2020 election, Boomers may still be relevant -- and the youngest will be 60. Six-zero. With good habits (avoiding tobacco and heavy drinking, having a reasonable weight, and remaining intellectually and physically active) that the GI generation introduced, there will be plenty of active, if undeniably old, Boomers. But if the optimum for a Crisis Era is an aging Idealist, the second-best choice is a Reactive who has little of a personal agenda, respects precedent and protocol, eschews corruption, has no cynicism, and is erudite and flexible.  Obama may have been the ideal post-Crisis leader, but we got him early. He may not have been ruthless enough to deal with the well-heeled opponents who could still buy the political process, but at least he did not sell out to them. Trump did sell out to them after promising everything to everyone, and that is a disaster. 

Unless Republicans succeed in rigging the next midterm (seemingly anything is possible in a 4T, much of it bad)  and the next Presidential election, we just might let elections solve our political pathology.

You said: The successful completion of a Crisis requires that the bad 3T behavior that precipitated the Crisis or made it particularly destructive must die.

Let us discuss the indicators, then, of WHAT IS OR COULD HAVE BEEN (if passed) THE CRISIS.  Your knowledge continues to be overwhelming and praiseworthy.  I suppose that NO MATTER WHAT the changes expressed in any Turning are always different.  The most flexible thing you've said I put above to focus there.  I do agree, a First Turning must coincide with transformation of what caused the Crisis.  So what is it?  What caused our Crisis?  If we reach back to the bracket I have been suggesting, 911 fomented an endless amount of HATEFUL JARGON, XENOPHOBIA, RELIGIOUS RADICALS (when we finally acknowledge there is such a things as christian radicalism), DOGMA ABOVE PROGRESS, SECURITY V FREEDOM, FEARMONGERING, SUPPRESSION OF "NON-ORTHODOX" (I could go on and on with what came out of 911) and then the financial crisis with HAVES OVER HAVE NOTS, BREAKDOWN OF PUBLIC STRUCTURE, RAMPANT CORPORATE MALFEASANCE, GOVT PANDERING TO RICH, HYPER-CAPITALISM, blah blah with the rest.

Those are the indicators I am expressing from our past Crisis.  Let's discuss it!
Reply
#49
(05-25-2018, 10:13 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 11:55 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 10:47 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 06:59 PM)TheNomad Wrote: So describe the continued Crisis as you see it.  Who is involved at all generational levels, what exactly will be the war of unconditional surrender, who fights in it, by what mandate do you see people sending millennials and artists into the woodchipper, etc.  Fighting as you describe it mean these people are going to sign themselves up and their protective parents are going to let encourage and support them.  Remember, Nomads are too old to be fighting this war, the one thing I learned about Heroes is they do not get sent down the drain under any circumstance. 

Artists are 18 right now if you keep the bracket at 2002.  Born after the beginning of Crisis, never knowing what it was like prior to the Crisis, coming to age IN the Crisis.

You have a lot of confidence in me as a prophet Smile

I have given some indications in my new book, but I still have to look it up. Here's one paragraph I wrote: 

So, in spite of its domestic conflicts, foreign affairs won't leave Americans alone in the 2020s. The war likely to break out at the end of 2020 will certainly demand attention. The Fall Equinox chart puts Mars right near the Descendant (house of war) in Washington DC. The USA might take an aggressive stance toward the troublemakers, but because it is consumed at home, it will not be able to put any swords behind its words. The chart indicates that Russia and West Africa (e.g. Ghana, Libya) will be targeted for these troubles. Then, a month after Mars in Aries turns direct in November, in square to Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto, a powerful solar eclipse on December 14 looms over the world. The month following the eclipse will be very dangerous. The chart shows that the Middle East (probably Syria), Russia, India, China, Korea and even Japan may get involved. Just like the phrase in the Bible, wars and rumors of wars could erupt in diverse places.


So, as Anthony has also said, in Dec./Jan.2021 it looks like a big war will break out. But the war cycle says the USA will mostly stay out of it. I didn't write much about 2025, except to say it will be in Asia, so I should take another look at that. Probably, whatever breaks out in 2021 in whatever places will likely still be at war in 2025, and will threaten USA interests, as perceived by the powers that be at the time.

I don't know I agree with what you said about Heroes/civics in general. They have always been willing soldiers. But it could be that in this case, the USA will go to war, but lots of heroes will resist or refuse to go. We live in the era following the great peace movement of the sixties. War is no longer so popular. So we'll see. The foreign war and the domestic battles could be linked.

I have a lot clearer handle on the domestic situation. The double rhythm theory has been propagated here by me, Chas Donald and others. I see it as alternating between predominantly foreign and domestic crises; the enemy without or the enemy within. Both elements appear, but one or the other is preeminent. Our 4T is a domestic one, predominantly. The cold civil war has been going on for decades now. People online may say that they don't subscribe to it, and yet politically the dominant trend is ever-tighter polarization. The reactionaries are fanatical, and the progressives are ever more energized and revved up. So the cold civil war could get hot. 

I think the only route to success is if by 2025-26, when it breaks out, the progressives have the government, and the reactionaries rebel. In the USA, a revolution is unlikely to succeed, so it's better if it's a reactionary one. I think that's how it will go down. I see a possible secession movement, and sporadic battles, over a 2-3 year period. The rebellion will be put down without as much trouble as during the civil war. The heroes and early artists will be willing soldiers on the progressive blue side, spurred on by blue boomer and Xer leaders as well as young millennial leaders, while in red states heroes led by Gen Xers will be aroused by the hatred and fears that have been passed down to them. Guns will be the trigger issue, along with taxes and racial hatreds and fears. Trump has aroused the fever and it will continue.

If the generation bracket is 2002, then artists are 16 now, not 18. I would put it one or two years later, but that's pretty close.

I see a positive outcome. The reforms will be secured, and they may go a lot farther than we can realistically expect now. Once a 4T energy is unleashed, it can go pretty far.

Oh!  So I was right you are approaching this from eschatological and religious dogma... or "prophecy".  I've said this is a mega indicator for people your age in sort of needing some apocalyptic showdown, Jack Van Impe style... and you even have the stars aligning for it!  How fun. 

WHAT is your book?  I will go through this more, there was a lot.

You can't discount the difference between left and right among people my age. That gives you a distorted picture. The difference in society today is mainly between left and right, not between generations, despite whatever people may say.

I don't refer to religious dogma of the Jack Van Impe style at all. My cyclic planetary research is based on discovering patterns of correlation. This research is essentially empirical. Scientists may say this is not causation, but astrology refers to causes that go beyond mechanical causation, which philosophy and science itself has cast doubt on. 

The right-wingers are interested in the Biblical prophecy of an apocalyptic type, but that's not me. Liberals and leftists are interested in progress, and some visionaries maybe see some kind of new age or radical utopia. I don't see the apocalyptic scenario ushering in a utopia in this 4T. I just envision what may happen based on the cyclic patterns, just like the generational cycle, and I also make use of data from that generation cycle and others, and the facts on the ground and in society. You can't ignore those facts and then attribute what I say to an apocalyptic scenario I supposedly believe in just because I'm a boomer.

http://philosopherswheel.com/book.htm

By the way, Pat Robertson was born in 1930 and Jack Van Impe in 1931. They are Silents.

Naw I am just messing with you mostly.  However, I don't have a distorted picture; while I would prefer to know and affiliate with those more of a "left" leaning, you are all the same (LOL).  Seriously..... all of you really do want your own individual or 50%-collective ideals to triumph over all else.  If you didn't care, that would make you different.  If you didn't have such immovable viewpoints and unchangeable ideology, then you would be something different.  I think we all know by now research is anything but empirical.  If that were true, people would be not be able to lead at the highest positions while saying and admitting freely they exist in an alternate universe that is full of the same research and data and numbers as OUR universe out here.  OUR universe, because I will offer you the benefit of doubt that at least on the important things you adhere to the reality most of us live in.  But even that isn't true.  ALMOST 50% OF PEOPLE EXIST IN THE OTHER UNIVERSE as proved in the last election. Same facts, different reality. It has always been that way, just now with the abundancy of phones/tablets/internet the phenomenon of FACT CHECKING has come into being. Even that doesn't help. Not even the FACTCHECKERS are worthy to provide provable and real information.

do u see what i am saying?

Oh and the apocalyptic thing, it goes back to how you were raised.  You were raised to believe you were the most unique snowflake that ever happened.  Therefore, everything you guys think is sort of scriptural.  Thus, your END should be no less blazing-across-the-night-sky as you always knew it would be: because that's what you deserve.  Van Impe lol but I used to be into that... so, I used him as example and making a joke simultaneously, doesn't always translate.  I am going to read your material maybe PM you and share mine.
Reply
#50
(05-25-2018, 02:05 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:
(05-21-2018, 07:34 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Much of it depends upon how the Fourth Turning crisis ends -- victory or defeat, survival of Humanity/civilization/technology/capitalism...survival of the American political system was not a sure thing in 1930. This Crisis begins with a huge inventory of nukes in place instead of being recent introductions to the military arsenal at the end.

In the original 4T book the authors described a crisis period is one in which social problems largely deferred during the 3T are addressed and dealt with. So far this does not seem to be happening via any large scale, and this is no doubt why a lot of people including posters here think that the 3T might have long overstayed its welcome. Here I shall share a post I just posted on another forum pertaining to this very issue in response to a 30-year-old man evicted by his own parents due to his deadbeat status:


I say much the same thing even though I don't justify the type of deadbeat status this guy embarked on. But I don believe that we have serious economic maladies that most seem to be afraid of seriously challenging. They are easily ignored by the MSM and other PTB so as not to cause friction. This is one of the key reasons why even Bernie Sanders' Presidential campaign was largely ignored for as long as possible. This because he was one of the few that had the balls to challenge said circumstances. Moving toward a new, more just paradigm is something the top 25% are deathly afraid of, or so it seems. Yet we need this energy – the hope, expanded community, generosity and
compassion. It helps us move beyond personal beliefs that divide us into
universal understanding and connectedness.Many including myself at times consider the social media now in vogue to subtract from true connectedness. Maybe today's world can take some lessons from the Boomers philosophy of their "free love" stage and ask this question: How will you open your heart a little bit more to yourself and all of us?


PS: It does seem very much as though most are simply too afraid to upset the corporate apple cart.

Your Post!

Taking from this what I saw/see.... PEOPLE there are swaths of American citizens who lost everything a decade ago and are still suffering.  Healthcare is being UNDERMINED (after it was "solved" by the Obama).  People are LOSING ground they gained after being devastated.  So, the current admin I have been calling ABERRATION because this cannot go on so much longer.  We had an admin and government which addressed MANY of our problems as a nation and someone like Senator Warren would and could incite the populace to face the Corporate Evil which is a facilitator (Government Hooker) blah blah... but it was not the right time.  This post talks of a long cycle, however, I have been identifying the indicators and I believe all the CRISIS may have already happened.  No fiery finish.  Just a raw deal for millions and hardship for most, no WWIII or plague epidemic wiping out half the population (from Robert Langdon to Thanos! we see this theme being playing out in the public consciousness).  The idea there MUST be charred corpses in the street before we can receive a HIGH.  Self-fulfilling? 

I think this may be what actually brings forth such a Crisis if it was even meant to happen.  After all, we know the fundamental foundation of the saeculum is simply HOW parents raise their kids in relation to how they, themselves, were raised.
Reply
#51
(05-25-2018, 03:18 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 10:47 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 06:59 PM)TheNomad Wrote: So describe the continued Crisis as you see it.  Who is involved at all generational levels, what exactly will be the war of unconditional surrender, who fights in it, by what mandate do you see people sending millennials and artists into the woodchipper, etc.  Fighting as you describe it mean these people are going to sign themselves up and their protective parents are going to let encourage and support them.  Remember, Nomads are too old to be fighting this war, the one thing I learned about Heroes is they do not get sent down the drain under any circumstance. 

Artists are 18 right now if you keep the bracket at 2002.  Born after the beginning of Crisis, never knowing what it was like prior to the Crisis, coming to age IN the Crisis.

You have a lot of confidence in me as a prophet Smile

I have given some indications in my new book, but I still have to look it up. Here's one paragraph I wrote: 

So, in spite of its domestic conflicts, foreign affairs won't leave Americans alone in the 2020s. The war likely to break out at the end of 2020 will certainly demand attention. The Fall Equinox chart puts Mars right near the Descendant (house of war) in Washington DC. The USA might take an aggressive stance toward the troublemakers, but because it is consumed at home, it will not be able to put any swords behind its words. The chart indicates that Russia and West Africa (e.g. Ghana, Libya) will be targeted for these troubles. Then, a month after Mars in Aries turns direct in November, in square to Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto, a powerful solar eclipse on December 14 looms over the world. The month following the eclipse will be very dangerous. The chart shows that the Middle East (probably Syria), Russia, India, China, Korea and even Japan may get involved. Just like the phrase in the Bible, wars and rumors of wars could erupt in diverse places.


So, as Anthony has also said, in Dec./Jan.2021 it looks like a big war will break out. But the war cycle says the USA will mostly stay out of it. I didn't write much about 2025, except to say it will be in Asia, so I should take another look at that. Probably, whatever breaks out in 2021 in whatever places will likely still be at war in 2025, and will threaten USA interests, as perceived by the powers that be at the time.

I don't know if I agree with what you said about Heroes/civics in general. They have always been willing soldiers. But it could be that in this case, the USA will go to war, but lots of heroes will resist or refuse to go. We live in the era following the great peace movement of the sixties. War is no longer so popular. So we'll see. The foreign war and the domestic battles could be linked.

I have a lot clearer handle on the domestic situation. The double rhythm theory has been propagated here by me, Chas Donald and others. I see it as alternating between predominantly foreign and domestic crises; the enemy without or the enemy within. Both elements appear, but one or the other is preeminent. Our 4T is a domestic one, predominantly. The cold civil war has been going on for decades now. People online may say that they don't subscribe to it, and yet politically the dominant trend is ever-tighter polarization. The reactionaries are fanatical, and the progressives are ever more energized and revved up. So the cold civil war could get hot. 

I think the only route to success is if by 2025-26, when it breaks out, the progressives have the government, and the reactionaries rebel. In the USA, a revolution is unlikely to succeed, so it's better if it's a reactionary one. I think that's how it will go down. I see a possible secession movement, and sporadic battles, over a 2-3 year period. The rebellion will be put down without as much trouble as during the civil war. The heroes and early artists will be willing soldiers on the progressive blue side, spurred on by blue boomer and Xer leaders as well as young millennial leaders, while in red states heroes led by Gen Xers will be aroused by the hatred and fears that have been passed down to them. Guns will be the trigger issue, along with taxes and racial hatreds and fears. Trump has aroused the fever and it will continue.

If the generation bracket is 2002, then artists are 16 now, not 18. I would put it one or two years later, but that's pretty close.

I see a positive outcome. The reforms will be secured, and they may go a lot farther than we can realistically expect now. Once a 4T energy is unleashed, it can go pretty far.
Per your next to last line, the name Homeland Generation was given to those born mostly from the time of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks for the reason that homeland security became a new cabinet department. That date is closer to 2002 than to 2000, so that would be about right.

Also, why do you feel that a revolution in the US is unlikely to succeed? Because we might get a Napoleon clone like France got after their revolution? We have the closest thing to a Napoleon-type in power right now. Might there be another equivalent of Grant vs. Lee?

Oops my math. I come from dyslexia - didn't check my work? Gotta stop for a moment and say when I was growing up, dyslexia meant DUMB.  It wasn't until Baby On Board that anyone took the time to know why someone couldn't learn well.  As a Nomad, I completed university in four years, taking Math every semester including summer sessions up to and alongside my capstone project in the final semester Angel 

Think of how that feels to be ignored by institutions and given a key to your home at 10 years old AND THEN watching kids grow up after you who were so utterly loved and looked after.  IT SUCKS.

This was not addressed to me but I simply must respond: does anyone reading here think there COULD BE some kind of Civil War in America right now?

Yes?  No?  Can you ENVISION that right now in our current mood? 

I cannot.  That is one of the main reasons I believe the Crisis is on the way out and it cannot last much longer.
Reply
#52
(05-25-2018, 06:04 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: We are going to have to hit bottom so that we can get out of denial. Economic inequality is pointlessly severe. Lobbyists call the shots in Congress and most State legislatures. Gun violence is a disgrace in America. We have millions of Americans who accept  nonsense as science.

Is this not a truer indicator of where we are in a cycle?  I believe a LARGE portion of folks think as you have expressed.  To elaborate, people like me who could not open the news or listen or deal with any of it after the last elections.......... for close to a year......... we as Nomads we just don't care anyway... so for that to happen, we just kind of look at then put our heads down and continue paying a bill or finishing a project... we cannot be bothered with that mess.  However, when we see younger people being like "NO.  NO NO NO.  THIS IS WRONG.  IT MUST STOP.  WE WILL CHANGE IT IF YOU DO NOT" then that inspires people my age that maybe something can change.  Opposite to that, you have those older than I who created that shit to begin with and who love it, live in it, foment it, desire it, THEY WANT IT.  So, it becomes WHO WILL WIN AND HOW.

This is yet another reason I believe the Crisis may be on the way out, rump an aberration, and the next "movement" of leadership might be an actual BEGINNING of change.  TO BE CLEAR we already had the beginning of change with Obama.  Everything felt different then.  If rump had not come into power and the vultures with it, we might be accelerating on change instead of trying only to roll it back. 

Based on this, I CANNOT ENVISION another dragging into the mud in America.  To my calculations, we have been in this for about a solid 15 years, people have finally been through hell and are trying to climb out still.  People do not have the patience for this mess anymore. They will not stand for this type of alternate reality speak or subjective facts, secondary truths.  I literally don't care about sexual relations with porn stars.  THAT IS WHAT THEY EXIST FOR.  However for the friend who says "we are not all the same" this same tactic (attacking someone with sex crimes) was used on a left democrat in the previous mirror cycle (that's something I made up for myself).  That tells me the generation of Prophet is OK with using ephemeral accusations on someone in power - no matter red or blue.  The "other side" wants you gone due to ideology and they will use any smear or go as low as they can to taint you.

I need to comment here now: as a multi-racial man, Barack Obama had not one thing to hide.  He was the most blameless man perhaps that existed at that time.  How do I know?  Because AS a non-{expletive I hate race classifications}-caucasian(?) let's admit there were people in dark rooms for at least a decade trying to find anything they could to throw a shadow on him.  The fact they did not find anything proves he is a blameless man when it comes to being potentially smeared as clinton and rump were/are.  In the end, IT IS about ideology at all cost.  They didn't like clinton for his social programs or whatever, they don't like rump for his ability to maybe stimulate economic growth. 

People can throw stats at me, but I don't really get them and I think the heaviest person-next-door indicator you can check is the unemployment figures.  And while I know for a fact there are people that after the financial crisis never re-entered the job market or are no longer statistics to be factored in, a lot of people have jobs who maybe did not even 5 years ago.  And arguments could be made it began in the Obama admin, I DON'T CARE.  Real estate is returning, property values are now cresting over the 2006 valuations, those are REAL indicators that affect real peoples' lives.  As far as I am concerned, stock valuation is not anything Betty at I-Hop can address. 

Yet, so many want doom and continued long-cycle armed robbery combined with plagues, terror events, global weather chaos and protracted military operations and unleashing of the warehouses of nuclear............................................................... really?  I've had enough for my lifetime, why do I have to live through YOUR dream?   Sleepy
Reply
#53
I don't know how you are going to avoid global weather chaos. That would be a neat trick; it's reality and not a dream. The oil and coal companies seem to want it though, because they would rather cause it than change. It won't matter what anyone wants or likes; things are still going to hell, and we either wake up and climb out, starting now with the current movements and regeneracy, or we just sink further into it.

"when we see younger people being like "NO. NO NO NO. THIS IS WRONG. IT MUST STOP. WE WILL CHANGE IT IF YOU DO NOT" then that inspires people my age that maybe something can change. Opposite to that, you have those older than I who created that shit to begin with and who love it, live in it, foment it, desire it, THEY WANT IT. So, it becomes WHO WILL WIN AND HOW." Right, Me too. And those older than the younger people like us, who agree with them-- Gen Xers who can manage chaos, and Boomers who can envision and lead-- will join the side of change and engage the battle and win over the next 10 years of the Fourth Turning. As Cameron Kasky said, I look ahead 10 years and I feel hope, I see light; I see a system I'll be proud of. The march is the beginning.



"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
#54
(05-25-2018, 03:18 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 10:47 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 06:59 PM)TheNomad Wrote: So describe the continued Crisis as you see it.  Who is involved at all generational levels, what exactly will be the war of unconditional surrender, who fights in it, by what mandate do you see people sending millennials and artists into the woodchipper, etc.  Fighting as you describe it mean these people are going to sign themselves up and their protective parents are going to let encourage and support them.  Remember, Nomads are too old to be fighting this war, the one thing I learned about Heroes is they do not get sent down the drain under any circumstance. 

Artists are 18 right now if you keep the bracket at 2002.  Born after the beginning of Crisis, never knowing what it was like prior to the Crisis, coming to age IN the Crisis.

You have a lot of confidence in me as a prophet Smile

I have given some indications in my new book, but I still have to look it up. Here's one paragraph I wrote: 

So, in spite of its domestic conflicts, foreign affairs won't leave Americans alone in the 2020s. The war likely to break out at the end of 2020 will certainly demand attention. The Fall Equinox chart puts Mars right near the Descendant (house of war) in Washington DC. The USA might take an aggressive stance toward the troublemakers, but because it is consumed at home, it will not be able to put any swords behind its words. The chart indicates that Russia and West Africa (e.g. Ghana, Libya) will be targeted for these troubles. Then, a month after Mars in Aries turns direct in November, in square to Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto, a powerful solar eclipse on December 14 looms over the world. The month following the eclipse will be very dangerous. The chart shows that the Middle East (probably Syria), Russia, India, China, Korea and even Japan may get involved. Just like the phrase in the Bible, wars and rumors of wars could erupt in diverse places.


So, as Anthony has also said, in Dec./Jan.2021 it looks like a big war will break out. But the war cycle says the USA will mostly stay out of it. I didn't write much about 2025, except to say it will be in Asia, so I should take another look at that. Probably, whatever breaks out in 2021 in whatever places will likely still be at war in 2025, and will threaten USA interests, as perceived by the powers that be at the time.

I don't know if I agree with what you said about Heroes/civics in general. They have always been willing soldiers. But it could be that in this case, the USA will go to war, but lots of heroes will resist or refuse to go. We live in the era following the great peace movement of the sixties. War is no longer so popular. So we'll see. The foreign war and the domestic battles could be linked.

I have a lot clearer handle on the domestic situation. The double rhythm theory has been propagated here by me, Chas Donald and others. I see it as alternating between predominantly foreign and domestic crises; the enemy without or the enemy within. Both elements appear, but one or the other is preeminent. Our 4T is a domestic one, predominantly. The cold civil war has been going on for decades now. People online may say that they don't subscribe to it, and yet politically the dominant trend is ever-tighter polarization. The reactionaries are fanatical, and the progressives are ever more energized and revved up. So the cold civil war could get hot. 

I think the only route to success is if by 2025-26, when it breaks out, the progressives have the government, and the reactionaries rebel. In the USA, a revolution is unlikely to succeed, so it's better if it's a reactionary one. I think that's how it will go down. I see a possible secession movement, and sporadic battles, over a 2-3 year period. The rebellion will be put down without as much trouble as during the civil war. The heroes and early artists will be willing soldiers on the progressive blue side, spurred on by blue boomer and Xer leaders as well as young millennial leaders, while in red states heroes led by Gen Xers will be aroused by the hatred and fears that have been passed down to them. Guns will be the trigger issue, along with taxes and racial hatreds and fears. Trump has aroused the fever and it will continue.

If the generation bracket is 2002, then artists are 16 now, not 18. I would put it one or two years later, but that's pretty close.

I see a positive outcome. The reforms will be secured, and they may go a lot farther than we can realistically expect now. Once a 4T energy is unleashed, it can go pretty far.
Per your next to last line, the name Homeland Generation was given to those born mostly from the time of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks for the reason that homeland security became a new cabinet department. That date is closer to 2002 than to 2000, so that would be about right.

Also, why do you feel that a revolution in the US is unlikely to succeed? Because we might get a Napoleon clone like France got after their revolution? We have the closest thing to a Napoleon-type in power right now. Might there be another equivalent of Grant vs. Lee?

The civil war rebellion failed; Lee lost. I just don't think Americans support violent revolutions; our country is too conservative and fearful; too convinced it is the greatest nation in the world as it is. It looks down on those who act up and disobey the law. And we are too divided; it will be a long time before we are unified behind one vision and program of progress; unified enough to overthrow the government and agree on what replaces it. And the law has superior resources. Less violent movements can bring progress, but even that is rare today; I hope it can happen again, and think it will in the next 10 years, and in the next 2T too. Perhaps we will shift bigly and the conservatives will just all melt away. It's always possible. But then, I'm an optimistic snowflake as The Nomad says.... so, which side will melt away?? is the question...
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
#55
(05-25-2018, 10:52 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I don't know how you are going to avoid global weather chaos. That would be a neat trick; it's reality and not a dream. The oil and coal companies seem to want it though, because they would rather cause it than change. It won't matter what anyone wants or likes; things are still going to hell, and we either wake up and climb out, starting now with the current movements and regeneracy, or we just sink further into it.

"when we see younger people being like "NO.  NO NO NO.  THIS IS WRONG.  IT MUST STOP.  WE WILL CHANGE IT IF YOU DO NOT" then that inspires people my age that maybe something can change.  Opposite to that, you have those older than I who created that shit to begin with and who love it, live in it, foment it, desire it, THEY WANT IT.  So, it becomes WHO WILL WIN AND HOW." Right, Me too. And those older than the younger people like us, who agree with them-- Gen Xers who can manage chaos, and Boomers who can envision and lead-- will join the side of change and engage the battle and win over the next 10 years of the Fourth Turning. As Cameron Kasky said, I look ahead 10 years and I feel hope, I see light; I see a system I'll be proud of. The march is the beginning.




I've seen this.  If that is not an INDICATOR of popular consensus I don't know what is.  I am kind of like when I saw the Parkland CNN thing, I was shocked.  I could not believe what I was seeing.  Real people saying "my children are being killed IN SCHOOLS" and a 17yo student actually looks at rubio and asks for KEVLAR VESTS FOR STUDENTS and KEVLAR WALLS FOR THE SCHOOLS.

The frakkin Crisis is ending not continuing.  These children are not meat for the grinder.  They nor their parents or the public at large is going to sacrifice these kids to some foreign war.  Look at them.  Listen to their parents.  They have no ink.  No piercings.  No wild blue hair.  They look like CLONES as was described in the texts "the most uniformed generation in history" that does not mean they had to wear boy/girl scouts or dress up as a marine as children, it is metaphoric, they are UNIONIZED.  How long has anyone heard of a UNION?  I had my first job at a grocery store and was in a UNION.  I was making better pay as a 16yo than when I was 22.  I was protected, heard, the union fought for my pay raise and made it happen. 

It's coming.  That archetype is already adult and established.  They are living with their parents still - due to the economic heist of 2008, not marrying, not procreating, just sitting around as the beloved of their tribe.  How long can that stagnation last?

Can I add just for context, when I was in the 3rd Turning bracket, people just sat around sad about school shooting as a desperate act. Basically, no one really cared. Not like this movement. Parents really did not stand and scream "MY CHILD DIED IN A SCHOOL BY AN ASSAULT RIFLE". So, as per the authors, the nomad gets the shaft, and the issue is ONLY addressed when the beloved archetype experiences it. Their lives are worth the protest. They matter.

But in sum, it is probably the kids themselves who became outraged and convinced parents not to accept it. Basically, their own saviors. Good for them.
Reply
#56
(05-25-2018, 11:03 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(05-25-2018, 03:18 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 10:47 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 06:59 PM)TheNomad Wrote: So describe the continued Crisis as you see it.  Who is involved at all generational levels, what exactly will be the war of unconditional surrender, who fights in it, by what mandate do you see people sending millennials and artists into the woodchipper, etc.  Fighting as you describe it mean these people are going to sign themselves up and their protective parents are going to let encourage and support them.  Remember, Nomads are too old to be fighting this war, the one thing I learned about Heroes is they do not get sent down the drain under any circumstance. 

Artists are 18 right now if you keep the bracket at 2002.  Born after the beginning of Crisis, never knowing what it was like prior to the Crisis, coming to age IN the Crisis.

You have a lot of confidence in me as a prophet Smile

I have given some indications in my new book, but I still have to look it up. Here's one paragraph I wrote: 

So, in spite of its domestic conflicts, foreign affairs won't leave Americans alone in the 2020s. The war likely to break out at the end of 2020 will certainly demand attention. The Fall Equinox chart puts Mars right near the Descendant (house of war) in Washington DC. The USA might take an aggressive stance toward the troublemakers, but because it is consumed at home, it will not be able to put any swords behind its words. The chart indicates that Russia and West Africa (e.g. Ghana, Libya) will be targeted for these troubles. Then, a month after Mars in Aries turns direct in November, in square to Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto, a powerful solar eclipse on December 14 looms over the world. The month following the eclipse will be very dangerous. The chart shows that the Middle East (probably Syria), Russia, India, China, Korea and even Japan may get involved. Just like the phrase in the Bible, wars and rumors of wars could erupt in diverse places.


So, as Anthony has also said, in Dec./Jan.2021 it looks like a big war will break out. But the war cycle says the USA will mostly stay out of it. I didn't write much about 2025, except to say it will be in Asia, so I should take another look at that. Probably, whatever breaks out in 2021 in whatever places will likely still be at war in 2025, and will threaten USA interests, as perceived by the powers that be at the time.

I don't know if I agree with what you said about Heroes/civics in general. They have always been willing soldiers. But it could be that in this case, the USA will go to war, but lots of heroes will resist or refuse to go. We live in the era following the great peace movement of the sixties. War is no longer so popular. So we'll see. The foreign war and the domestic battles could be linked.

I have a lot clearer handle on the domestic situation. The double rhythm theory has been propagated here by me, Chas Donald and others. I see it as alternating between predominantly foreign and domestic crises; the enemy without or the enemy within. Both elements appear, but one or the other is preeminent. Our 4T is a domestic one, predominantly. The cold civil war has been going on for decades now. People online may say that they don't subscribe to it, and yet politically the dominant trend is ever-tighter polarization. The reactionaries are fanatical, and the progressives are ever more energized and revved up. So the cold civil war could get hot. 

I think the only route to success is if by 2025-26, when it breaks out, the progressives have the government, and the reactionaries rebel. In the USA, a revolution is unlikely to succeed, so it's better if it's a reactionary one. I think that's how it will go down. I see a possible secession movement, and sporadic battles, over a 2-3 year period. The rebellion will be put down without as much trouble as during the civil war. The heroes and early artists will be willing soldiers on the progressive blue side, spurred on by blue boomer and Xer leaders as well as young millennial leaders, while in red states heroes led by Gen Xers will be aroused by the hatred and fears that have been passed down to them. Guns will be the trigger issue, along with taxes and racial hatreds and fears. Trump has aroused the fever and it will continue.

If the generation bracket is 2002, then artists are 16 now, not 18. I would put it one or two years later, but that's pretty close.

I see a positive outcome. The reforms will be secured, and they may go a lot farther than we can realistically expect now. Once a 4T energy is unleashed, it can go pretty far.
Per your next to last line, the name Homeland Generation was given to those born mostly from the time of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks for the reason that homeland security became a new cabinet department. That date is closer to 2002 than to 2000, so that would be about right.

Also, why do you feel that a revolution in the US is unlikely to succeed? Because we might get a Napoleon clone like France got after their revolution? We have the closest thing to a Napoleon-type in power right now. Might there be another equivalent of Grant vs. Lee?

The civil war rebellion failed; Lee lost. I just don't think Americans support violent revolutions; our country is too conservative and fearful; too convinced it is the greatest nation in the world as it is. It looks down on those who act up and disobey the law. And we are too divided; it will be a long time before we are unified behind one vision and program of progress; unified enough to overthrow the government and agree on what replaces it. And the law has superior resources. Less violent movements can bring progress, but even that is rare today; I hope it can happen again, and think it will in the next 10 years, and in the next 2T too. Perhaps we will shift bigly and the conservatives will just all melt away. It's always possible. But then, I'm an optimistic snowflake as The Nomad says.... so, which side will melt away?? is the question...

You said: I just don't think Americans support violent revolutions

I've been saying this.  We MAY be actively blind to the idea no one is going to support a major war effort right now and no one is going to sacrifice the blessed children on the altar of foreign war right now.  Which means 911 and the following wars WERE the conflict of the Crisis.  People were utterly hypnotized by the american flag.  IT WAS OK GOOD AND RIGHT to rant about destroying muslims in revenge.

What happened after 911 really does fit the paradigm described by the authors.  One arm of the Crisis is war, the other economic.  These things have already happened.  This, the High should be coming much sooner.

You may be optimistic, but are you truly that if you don't think the 911 wars and the ensuing transformation of our culture WAS NOT ENOUGH to fit the bill.  No, there has to be MORE.  Is that optimistic?
Reply
#57
(05-25-2018, 11:57 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-25-2018, 11:03 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(05-25-2018, 03:18 PM)beechnut79 Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 10:47 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 06:59 PM)TheNomad Wrote: So describe the continued Crisis as you see it.  Who is involved at all generational levels, what exactly will be the war of unconditional surrender, who fights in it, by what mandate do you see people sending millennials and artists into the woodchipper, etc.  Fighting as you describe it mean these people are going to sign themselves up and their protective parents are going to let encourage and support them.  Remember, Nomads are too old to be fighting this war, the one thing I learned about Heroes is they do not get sent down the drain under any circumstance. 

Artists are 18 right now if you keep the bracket at 2002.  Born after the beginning of Crisis, never knowing what it was like prior to the Crisis, coming to age IN the Crisis.

You have a lot of confidence in me as a prophet Smile

I have given some indications in my new book, but I still have to look it up. Here's one paragraph I wrote: 

So, in spite of its domestic conflicts, foreign affairs won't leave Americans alone in the 2020s. The war likely to break out at the end of 2020 will certainly demand attention. The Fall Equinox chart puts Mars right near the Descendant (house of war) in Washington DC. The USA might take an aggressive stance toward the troublemakers, but because it is consumed at home, it will not be able to put any swords behind its words. The chart indicates that Russia and West Africa (e.g. Ghana, Libya) will be targeted for these troubles. Then, a month after Mars in Aries turns direct in November, in square to Jupiter, Saturn and Pluto, a powerful solar eclipse on December 14 looms over the world. The month following the eclipse will be very dangerous. The chart shows that the Middle East (probably Syria), Russia, India, China, Korea and even Japan may get involved. Just like the phrase in the Bible, wars and rumors of wars could erupt in diverse places.


So, as Anthony has also said, in Dec./Jan.2021 it looks like a big war will break out. But the war cycle says the USA will mostly stay out of it. I didn't write much about 2025, except to say it will be in Asia, so I should take another look at that. Probably, whatever breaks out in 2021 in whatever places will likely still be at war in 2025, and will threaten USA interests, as perceived by the powers that be at the time.

I don't know if I agree with what you said about Heroes/civics in general. They have always been willing soldiers. But it could be that in this case, the USA will go to war, but lots of heroes will resist or refuse to go. We live in the era following the great peace movement of the sixties. War is no longer so popular. So we'll see. The foreign war and the domestic battles could be linked.

I have a lot clearer handle on the domestic situation. The double rhythm theory has been propagated here by me, Chas Donald and others. I see it as alternating between predominantly foreign and domestic crises; the enemy without or the enemy within. Both elements appear, but one or the other is preeminent. Our 4T is a domestic one, predominantly. The cold civil war has been going on for decades now. People online may say that they don't subscribe to it, and yet politically the dominant trend is ever-tighter polarization. The reactionaries are fanatical, and the progressives are ever more energized and revved up. So the cold civil war could get hot. 

I think the only route to success is if by 2025-26, when it breaks out, the progressives have the government, and the reactionaries rebel. In the USA, a revolution is unlikely to succeed, so it's better if it's a reactionary one. I think that's how it will go down. I see a possible secession movement, and sporadic battles, over a 2-3 year period. The rebellion will be put down without as much trouble as during the civil war. The heroes and early artists will be willing soldiers on the progressive blue side, spurred on by blue boomer and Xer leaders as well as young millennial leaders, while in red states heroes led by Gen Xers will be aroused by the hatred and fears that have been passed down to them. Guns will be the trigger issue, along with taxes and racial hatreds and fears. Trump has aroused the fever and it will continue.

If the generation bracket is 2002, then artists are 16 now, not 18. I would put it one or two years later, but that's pretty close.

I see a positive outcome. The reforms will be secured, and they may go a lot farther than we can realistically expect now. Once a 4T energy is unleashed, it can go pretty far.
Per your next to last line, the name Homeland Generation was given to those born mostly from the time of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks for the reason that homeland security became a new cabinet department. That date is closer to 2002 than to 2000, so that would be about right.

Also, why do you feel that a revolution in the US is unlikely to succeed? Because we might get a Napoleon clone like France got after their revolution? We have the closest thing to a Napoleon-type in power right now. Might there be another equivalent of Grant vs. Lee?

The civil war rebellion failed; Lee lost. I just don't think Americans support violent revolutions; our country is too conservative and fearful; too convinced it is the greatest nation in the world as it is. It looks down on those who act up and disobey the law. And we are too divided; it will be a long time before we are unified behind one vision and program of progress; unified enough to overthrow the government and agree on what replaces it. And the law has superior resources. Less violent movements can bring progress, but even that is rare today; I hope it can happen again, and think it will in the next 10 years, and in the next 2T too. Perhaps we will shift bigly and the conservatives will just all melt away. It's always possible. But then, I'm an optimistic snowflake as The Nomad says.... so, which side will melt away?? is the question...

You said: I just don't think Americans support violent revolutions

I've been saying this.  We MAY be actively blind to the idea no one is going to support a major war effort right now and no one is going to sacrifice the blessed children on the altar of foreign war right now.  Which means 911 and the following wars WERE the conflict of the Crisis.  People were utterly hypnotized by the american flag.  IT WAS OK GOOD AND RIGHT to rant about destroying muslims in revenge.

What happened after 911 really does fit the paradigm described by the authors.  One arm of the Crisis is war, the other economic.  These things have already happened.  This, the High should be coming much sooner.

You may be optimistic, but are you truly that if you don't think the 911 wars and the ensuing transformation of our culture WAS NOT ENOUGH to fit the bill.  No, there has to be MORE.  Is that optimistic?

Yes, because it's the MORE where real positive change could be made. 9-11 and its aftermath were a negative change; part of the unravelling, taking us back to business as usual militarism, and human rights violations to boot. That was not a transformation at all, but a serious regression.

Usually, the economic crisis happens first. Also, don't forget my point. Wars happen in 3Ts too. World War One. The War with Mexico. The French and Indian War. And, the 9-11 wars. None of these were the "big ones." The 4T ones.

Right now, I don't think Americans will support a war. But the war cycle is only 12 years long. Although it's true the war that started at the preceding cycle, 9-11/Afghanistan, lasted through the whole cycle and beyond. Then in 2013-14 the next cycle took us back to Iraq to fight the IS and almost into Syria. So, the Afghan war continues, at a low level, as it has off and on since it started. But no, I think the Trump presidency will not see a new USA war; he will fulfill his America First stance in that respect. Now, I could be wrong, but I don't think so. It's true that even Americans need a rest and a respite before going into another war. But his bullying could set the stage for what happens when the war cycle comes around again in 2025.

Being only every 12 years, a war doesn't always happen every cycle, but often the basis for the next war happens. The big thing though, is that in 2025 we not only have the 12 year war cycle, but the 84-year one. The "big one" is due then too. That cycle is hard to deny. So, it looks like another war is ahead at the end of this 4T.

I am good at predicting wars. But I hope, someday, that I will be poor at it, because my prediction of a more long-term revolution of peace will come true too.

Don't forget, as horrible as World War Two was, and as much as we don't want another one, it did bring some positive transformation. Women and blacks advanced in society, and because of that, they demanded more in the next 2T. Technology progressed, and the United Nations was founded. The USA became the responsible leader of the free world, and the free world itself expanded, since the war ended the old imperial aristocracy in Germany and spelled the end of colonial empires. After world war two, there were no further regressions back from the advance of democracy in Western and Central Europe.

The Civil war, as horrible as it was, and as much as we don't want another one, but may indeed get a smaller one, it did free the slaves, and the industrial revolution ramped up.

The Revolution, which cost its leaders their lives, fortunes and sacred honor, did bring about the first constitutional republic in the world, and the bill of rights. It spread to Europe too, where the French created the second one; which did not last, but paved the way for gradual progress toward free republics after the war that resulted.

9-11 and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq resulted in no progress or positive change at all, but regression and nothing but regression. If we are at the end of the 4T, then this saeculum only lasted 72 years. It is supposed to last about 82.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
#58
(05-24-2018, 12:50 PM)TheNomad Wrote: Those kids in Florida -- Heroes and Artists (who are in the model supposed to be helpmates) are already of voting age and they are armed with networks and technology with one voice.  They will not ALLOW the government to put them in harm's way over assault weapons coming into their schools anymore.  Their voices can only be expanded upon to read a sea-change in MOOD.  I view that mood as having already changed....I am proposing maybe the Crisis has already come and went.

What I sense here is more hope than analysis.  What happened to the Parkland kids has happened to others before, and it continued on afterward. There is no evidence that it will be any different this time.  If Republicans hold on to their majorities this fall, the Parkland kids will have failed.  Odds are most of them will move on from high school and the issue will lose salience. We really don't know what will happen. 

You suggest 911 and 2008 were big enough deals for them to comprise a 4T. This of course is possible, but if its the case then, event wise, the 4T ended years ago.  For the 4T  to continue past 2010 or so, more stuff has to keep happening. One might think Donald Trump is something, but I do not see all that much difference between Trump and the alternative, Ted Cruz, who it seems to me would be just as bad (or good) as Trump. Trump hasn't done anything that a bog-standard Republican wouldn't do. He has embraced GWBush's neocon ways, his economics and his social policy.

Now if Clinton had won that would indicate a 4T continuation as the only time Democrats have won a third term were in social moment turnings. This has not been the case for Republicans who won third terms in 1988, 1928 and 1908 (all 3Ts) and 1872 (1T).  But that did not happen.

There was no change in foreign policy. We began a crusade in the Middle East in 1991 that continues on to this day. If we had a 4T, it didn't affect our crusading.

Economic trends of flat wages and rising inequality over the past 40 years are still in force. If we had a 4T it did not affect the economy in any persistence fashion that I can see.

Social moments are supposed to be a time of political turmoil and popular unrest. In past 2Ts and 4Ts were have seen lots of riots, assassinations, domestic terrorism, violent protest. None of this is present. To see social violence today one had to consider rampage murders (e.g. mass shootings) as an additional category of unrest like riots. I do this as so can show the expected spike in violence for this 4T, but it is not clear this categorization is valid. If I don't include these events then the past couple decades fail "the 4T test" for this measure too.

Finally a 4T is supposed to restructure the government. That hasn't happened either.

There is not a very strong case that we even had a 4T.
Reply
#59
(05-25-2018, 08:10 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-25-2018, 05:36 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 06:59 PM)TheNomad Wrote:
(05-24-2018, 06:28 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I think that in saying that the wars domestic and foreign will be less severe and not armageddon or holocaust, that I am not doing the boomer thing you suggest. Many others in these forums believe things will be much worse. From the resistance to change I see, I can't see that it's anything but a brick wall that needs to be punched down. I don't think it's because I want it that way; it's been that way for 40 years, and increasingly so. And it seems to me that a crisis of the kind that S&H predicted will happen because of it.

I don't think the airport thing is anything but an irritant. No I certainly don't think 9-11 changed America. It was an excuse for the military industrial complex and "neocon" war mentality just to continue as it had been before the Cold War ended. It was business as usual resuming, not because boomers wanted it that way, but because the MIC wanted it that way. And there are wars in all turnings; a 4T war has been a total war fought with the intent of gaining unconditional surrender; Iraq and Afghanistan were not that.

I totally get that you don't want to call the other side evil. Rhetoric can be a problem, but I have never subscribed to the idea that it's the main problem. If people are determined in their actions solely by reaction to bad rhetoric, then they are not paying attention. It's the problems themselves that are the problem, not how we talk about them.

I'm sure we want a lot of the same things. There will be plenty of people in America who do so that a consensus will eventually develop, but more new folks have to come on the scene and older ones leave, and a lot of the folks resisting change will need to be convinced or forced to stop resisting and cooperate instead of being so attached to the ideologies they hold: free market, religious right, etc.; a resistance that unfortunately makes a crisis necessary that hasn't happened yet.

I don't buy that today's 18-year olds are artist archetypes. I know David Hogg calls himself a millennial, and so do the others. Only the 14-year olds are artists. We can disagree about that though, and that's cool. I just see no basis for speeding up the saeculum. It is 82 years long, and is proceeding just as I predicted. We can't always get what we want. The 4T may not be as severe as some fervent boomers or others want, but it may not be as quick and easy as you or some others prefer either. I don't quite understand why some S&H followers somehow think the saeculum will suddenly speed up and go by faster than they said it would, especially in regard to the lynchpin of the whole cycle, the great crisis that returns every 80+ years. We ain't seen nothin' yet.

The seeds are being planted for a 1T, because the possibility exists now that a millennial surge supported by older folks in positions of power facilitating it will establish the moral and political tenets that will power to victory in this 4T, and be the foundation for the 1T consensus to come. That was no different from what happened with the declaration of independence, or the reaction to the Dred Scot decision in the abolitionist movement, or the New Deal and the reaction to Pearl Harbor. Lots of fighting was still ahead, and it's ahead of us now, just as the students at the March for Our Lives rally say.

So describe the continued Crisis as you see it.  Who is involved at all generational levels, what exactly will be the war of unconditional surrender, who fights in it, by what mandate do you see people sending millennials and artists into the woodchipper, etc.  Fighting as you describe it mean these people are going to sign themselves up and their protective parents are going to let encourage and support them.  Remember, Nomads are too old to be fighting this war, the one thing I learned about Heroes is they do not get sent down the drain under any circumstance. 

Artists are 18 right now if you keep the bracket at 2002.  Born after the beginning of Crisis, never knowing what it was like prior to the Crisis, coming to age IN the Crisis.

The successful completion of a Crisis requires that the bad 3T behavior that precipitated the Crisis or made it particularly destructive must die. For America, that implied that the tendency toward a bubble economy had to be so discredited that the stock market valuations of 1929 and would not reach the nominal highs of the 1929 bubble until 1952, that the pseudoscience of eugenics would need to be disgraced (the racist ideology of Nazi Germany would be exposed for its consequences while out of practical concerns America would have to give opportunities to ethnic groups then marginal as recent immigrants, as it is hard to keep former "Major Kowalski" or "Lieutenant Commander Rossi" out of the middle class after the Second World War ended), the mindless mass culture of the 1920s would have to become irrelevant, and gangsterism would have to be extirpated.  If we Americans don't solve those problems ourselves, then maybe some other power will do such for us on terms of their choosing -- as we did to Italy, Japan, and in Germany (at least the American zone of occupation).

No, we didn't have to extirpate Goethe, Verdi, or Hokusai. Of anything, Americans were told to appreciate them if they so desired. Goethe didn't put people into concentration camps, Verdi might as well have been an American, and Hokusai had nothing to do with the Bataan Death March. But we did put an end to fascist politics. We closed the concentration camps and torture chambers -- and prosecuted those who made them so horrible much as we prosecuted Capone-era gangsters.  (The Nazi Party was the worst syndicate of organized crime ever -- was it not?) We gave the vote to women in Italy and Japan because women were less likely to fall for extremist, militaristic causes than were men. We insisted that racism and religious bigotry be expunged from the educational process along with militarist values.

If we do not extirpate the neo-con militarism, gangs such as MS-13, the influence of the Russian Mafia upon politics and business, the gun culture (sport hunting and target shooting exempt), and the extreme economic inequality... then someone else will.

The generational cycle may not predict when 4T events culminate in the establishment of a new social order, but it certainly establishes a window of time in which such is possible. Events that define the end of a 4T happen rapidly. At some time, the Apocalypse loses its sustainability. The taste of destruction becomes unpleasant even for the victors. That will be in at most five years. From the Boston Tea Party to the ratification of the Constitution was slightly less than twenty years. From the Panic of 1857 to Juneteenth was about eight years. From the nearly-simultaneous accessions of FDR and Satan Incarnate in their respective countries to V-J day was a little over twelve years. 


One biological reality has made this Crisis Era different from the others: the increased life-spans that have allowed people to remain active in public life into their seventies and eighties. It is worth remembering that Abraham Lincoln, who was only in his fifties, was seen as an old man in his time. FDR was 62 when he died. In the 2020 election, Boomers may still be relevant -- and the youngest will be 60. Six-zero. With good habits (avoiding tobacco and heavy drinking, having a reasonable weight, and remaining intellectually and physically active) that the GI generation introduced, there will be plenty of active, if undeniably old, Boomers. But if the optimum for a Crisis Era is an aging Idealist, the second-best choice is a Reactive who has little of a personal agenda, respects precedent and protocol, eschews corruption, has no cynicism, and is erudite and flexible.  Obama may have been the ideal post-Crisis leader, but we got him early. He may not have been ruthless enough to deal with the well-heeled opponents who could still buy the political process, but at least he did not sell out to them. Trump did sell out to them after promising everything to everyone, and that is a disaster. 

Unless Republicans succeed in rigging the next midterm (seemingly anything is possible in a 4T, much of it bad)  and the next Presidential election, we just might let elections solve our political pathology.

You said: The successful completion of a Crisis requires that the bad 3T behavior that precipitated the Crisis or made it particularly destructive must die.

Let us discuss the indicators, then, of WHAT IS OR COULD HAVE BEEN (if passed) THE CRISIS.   I suppose that NO MATTER WHAT the changes expressed in any Turning are always different.  The most flexible thing you've said I put above to focus there.  I do agree, a First Turning must coincide with transformation of what caused the Crisis.  So what is it?  What caused our Crisis?  If we reach back to the bracket I have been suggesting, 911 fomented an endless amount of HATEFUL JARGON, XENOPHOBIA, RELIGIOUS RADICALS (when we finally acknowledge there is such a things as christian radicalism), DOGMA ABOVE PROGRESS, SECURITY V FREEDOM, FEARMONGERING, SUPPRESSION OF "NON-ORTHODOX" (I could go on and on with what came out of 911) and then the financial crisis with HAVES OVER HAVE NOTS, BREAKDOWN OF PUBLIC STRUCTURE, RAMPANT CORPORATE MALFEASANCE, GOVT PANDERING TO RICH, HYPER-CAPITALISM, blah blah with the rest.

Those are the indicators I am expressing from our past Crisis.  Let's discuss it!

1. economic distress in the form of a market crash (resulting from the implosion of a speculative boom) and an ensuing "second Great Depression". We dodged that for now, but we might get a second occurrence. I look at the pattern of booms and busts that began before the American Civil War as a consequence of plutocratic management of the economy with a basis in government choosing or enabling winners and losers.  The broad-based economies following the Second World War avoided or mitigated that problem -- until the Double-Zero decade.

Donald Trump seems to believe that the optimal economy is one that promotes 'winners' like he.

2. economic dislocations at the end of necessary scarcity. We are at the end of an era in which further increases in industrial output result in real happiness. Yes, there is room for more technological refinement, but poor people can buy the cast-offs of people replacing their third-generation or fifth-generation iPad with a sixth generation iPad, or the first wave of HDTV with Super-Duper High Definition TV. We can buy more stuff, but much of it will end up as clutter or cause us to need to store it.

In neo-Marxist terms (I think technology and the need for plutocrats to transform the proletariat from a resentful and angry class of workers seeking a Socialist revolution to a class of complacent consumerists who buy a huge chunk of what they consume have relevance to economic history, and that Marx missed that for no fault of his own), we may be facing the end of the capitalist order as we know it, violent revolution with hammer-and-sickle devices and red flags or not. The capitalist class, whether out of wisdom or out of cowardice, found a way to save itself and its class privilege.

To say that we have adjustments to make is a gross understatement.

3. Yes, the bungled response to the 9/11 attack included some exacerbation of ugly, discreditable trends in American mass culture. Dubya was an awful President by any criteria up to Donald Trump, who may be possible because of the degradation of political discourse. Dubya enabled the neo-con response and the gutter bigotry of the time.

9-11 would have been a crisis event that could have caused Americans to rally around the nation and its core, well-established principles. But let us remember that in the wake of the Pearl Harbor attack, America incarcerated Japanese-Americans in the western United States  on specious grounds. (We could have taken milder measures, like requiring that Japanese-language publications be printed in a Roman script so that American censors could have watched for pro-Axis propaganda). It is telling that Douglas MacArthur chose to leave the Japanese population, much of the basis of the local economy in Hawaii, alone.

Fearmongering and zealotry are normal in a Crisis and even more likely. Of course, we would be wiser to read the Koran than to burn it...

4. The love that this President shows for authoritarian rulers at the expense of our well-established democratic partners is simply obscene. I have a fear that this President would like to solidify his control (and that of the "best people") forever with the aid of some rigged elections. Maybe we would end up with a "Bill of Rights for capital" which basically says that the rich and powerful are to be free from any dissent or resistance... and of course taxation. Maybe the Pe4nce wing of the GOP would get its way on abortion, homosexuality, and "Christian" pseudoscience such as young-earth creationism as the Union of Christian and Corporate States becomes a right-wing version of the evil empire known as the Soviet Union.

5. We could be in for a large number of large-scale protests, strikes, and demonstrations. If the Trump Presidency should choose to dismantle the welfare state, then we could see riots by people consigned to starvation and exposure. Put those together after some elections (even one) of questionable integrity and we could have something like December 1989 in Romania.

6. America has been polarized severely on economics and political orientation. So was Spain in the 1930s, and look where that led. We may be getting away from that danger, but then again.. we only "may".
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#60
"I do agree, a First Turning must coincide with transformation of what caused the Crisis." This is not in accord with the theory, or with past 1Ts. First Turnings are times of stasis, conformity, consolidation, consensus, recovery, status quo, capital and infrastructure development, spirit death. First Turnings are not times of transformation. Those are in social moment turnings, the 4th and 2nd. In a 4th turning, a crisis leads to a transformation. We've had the crisis, but not the transformation yet. It won't happen unless it happens in the next 10 years, which will be the second half of a fourth turning. If we don't, then the cycle has ended, and the USA is in steep decline.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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