Looking at the generations from the Fourth Turning perspective

[Eric the Green]

(06-11-2018, 10:54 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: History seems to suggest a tendency for Crisis eras to be backloaded, meaning that the bulk of the action doesn't occur until near the end of the turning. This is way many seem to think we are stuck and that we really aren't in Crisis mode. Awakenings, or 2Ts, on the other hand, tend to be more frontloaded with the bulk of the action at the beginning of the turning. This is way we had two social moments 20 years apart and then apparently 60.

Astrology is key to why this happened in the last saeculum. Let's look at the planetary alignments and the social moments. The outer three invisible planets define the saeculum cycle.

In 1965 and 1966, Uranus and Pluto formed a powerful conjunction, right at the time both were near their closest points to Earth in their orbits. And it was the first outer-3 planet conjunction or opposition since all three planets had been discovered. That is a key indicator too-- discovery of a planet means it comes into our full consciousness in society.

Between 1963 and 1969, Uranus and Pluto were close to being aligned in conjunction. Within orb, we say. So, when the 2T social moment began in Nov. 1963 and 1964, Uranus and Pluto were getting very close. Uranus is the awakener, the revolutionary planet which, when discovered in 1781, set us off on our revolutionary journey. That was the year Americans won their independence at Yorktown, the industrial revolution took off, Kant wrote his famous revolutionary book, many discoveries in electricity and chemistry were happening, and so on. Pluto was discovered in 1930, when the New Deal and Nazism were on the rise as the great depression fell upon us.

Thus, the recent 2T was frontloaded because a Uranus-Pluto conjunction happened early in it. This was the era when I learned astrology. As I learned about the planets and conjunctions and what they mean in 1967, I decided to check and see if one was happening, because I thought there was. Sure enough, I found that Uranus and Pluto were lining up, and that their final exact alignment happened in exactly the week I thought they were, in late June 1966. That was a magic moment of awakening; the central moment from which the 2T sprung, and was building up toward in the previous 2-3 years.

Another Uranus-Pluto conjunction, the previous one, happened in 1850. At this time, the events leading to the civil war speeded up. Also the events leading to the national unification wars in Europe speeded up, right after revolutions happened throughout the continent in 1848-50, as well as in China. In that year 1850, the two sets of wars almost broke out, but were forestalled until the next decade. 

The next right angle square aspect between them happened in the early 1930s, when the previous 4T was getting going, right after Pluto was discovered. The next right angle square of Uranus and Pluto happened in 2011-2013 and thereabouts. It seems to have had a similar impact to the 1848-1850 conjunction, as the Arab Spring string of dominoe revolutions were similar to those in Europe in 1848, and they both set off civil wars. But, our own 4T remains in a stall as it did then.

In the late 1880s and into the 1890s Neptune and Pluto were lining up. This is a rare and major once-in-500-years indicator of a new cycle of civilization. It shakes up all of our reigning powers and cultures. That frontloaded the previous 2T. Oppositions then followed to the two planets by Uranus in 1901 and 1908. In an opposition, the Earth sits right between two planets. That kept things hopping throughout that 2T. Revolutions happened all over the world.

Another opposition between revolutionary planets Uranus and Pluto happened in 1792-93. This was the peak of the French Revolution, and it had an impact in the USA making the first years of the American Republic ones of intense controversy. Other great Uranus-Pluto oppositions happened during the Great Rebellion in 1649, during Henry VIII's reign in the 1530s, and Henry IV's takeover just before 1400.

The next opposition between the revolution planets Uranus and Pluto happens in the late 2040s. Look for that one to front-load the next 2T, and to fulfill the unfinished movements of the nineteen-sixties.

Neptune reaching key seasonal points of the zodiac is also very significant. It reached the autumn equinox point entering Libra at the climax of the previous 4T, in the early 1940s; 1942-43. It was within minutes of entry and then went retrograde on Pearl Harbor Day. The previous autumn equinox of Neptune was in 1778, when France entered the revolutionary war, just after the Declaration of Independence. It entered Aries, the spring equinox point, in 1861 on the exact day Fort Sumpter was bombed, igniting the climax of the civil war. It's next entry into Aries is in 2025, and its final exact entry is on Jan 26, 2026. That will be the climax of the social moment now developing. (unless historians pick 2027 instead-- see below)

Returns of the outer planets to their original places in 1776 is part of this scheme. Uranus returned to its exact degree and minute location of July 4 1776 on the day Fort Sumpter was bombed in April 1861, and again to the same degree and minute on D-Day. S&H chose these as climax moments in 4Ts. The next Uranus return will happen in 2027. Neptune returned to its original 1776 place in about 1939 just before World War II. 2022 will be the first-ever Pluto Return.

http://philosopherswheel.com/book.htm

[pbrower2a]

(06-11-2018, 10:54 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: History seems to suggest a tendency for Crisis eras to be backloaded, meaning that the bulk of the action doesn't occur until near the end of the turning. This is way many seem to think we are stuck and that we really aren't in Crisis mode. Awakenings, or 2Ts, on the other hand, tend to be more frontloaded with the bulk of the action at the beginning of the turning. This is way we had two social moments 20 years apart and then apparently 60.

Some people love the Crisis.  For several decades, many Britons considered the Second World War, when all was at risk and practically everyone not a toddler had a role in saving all that was good in life from going to the Devil, and the one intent on making the world go to the Devil was the man closest to resembling Satan in his ruthless, cunning, resolute evil, as the most fulfilling time of their lives. I cannot imagine a more fulfilling time in human history than Britain in 1940. Scary, deprived, and insecure? Sure! Crises bring fear and hardship -- but they can also have wholesome resolutions.

On the other side there are people who find the Crisis as the right time for achieving the fulfillment of their wishes -- to settle scores upon nations and peoples that one accuses of doing great personal or national harm. I am tempted to believe that Hitler thought that he was doing the  Lord's Work even if it was in service of an entity that cherishes cruelty, destruction, and injustice.

The last completed Crisis took roughly sixteen years from the Great Stock Market Crash of 1929 to the moment at which General Douglas MacArthur intoned on the USS Missouri that the 'proceedings are over'.

Political leaders, not only Donald Trump, are rending our political institutions in ways inconceivable at any time since the Civil War. (American political life during the Second World War was quite placid by the standards of most times, as the focus of American life was on more pressing matters). The next few years will determine whether we have fascism or freedom. Remember: fascism and freedom are incompatible in ways in which certain forms of socialism (social democracy or a social-market society) endorse liberal democracy. Fascist politics is the denunciation of democracy; fascist economics implies a feudal organization with high technology (all the better for bamboozling the gullible masses, cowing the cowards, and eliminating dissidents).

The one thing that we Americans thought happens only to other countries -- a military coup -- seems far more possible now than at any time in American history. Our President better resembles either Benito Mussolini for arrogance or Juan Peron for demagoguery than any prior American President.

We will have either a New Birth of Freedom (Lincoln in his Gettysburg Address)  or an Orwellian nightmare.

[David Horn]

(06-11-2018, 10:49 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: But in that "traditional" America there were, for the most part, no stores open on Sunday. Don't believe we have returned to that meme anywhere even in red America, Chick-Fil-A notwithstanding.

I seriously doubt though that the Millennials will make like the last generation of its archetype, the GIs, and return us to the days of the Organization Man/Suzy Homemaker lifestyle. Someone here mentioned nostalgia for the days of Mom and Pop shops on Main Street. For said return to happen many would have to be willing to sacrifice some of their conveniences.

Returning to "sense of things" doesn't require returning to the last implementation of that sense. Millennials appear to be the first generation to reject the merchant-customer model. They may come to regret it, but deciding to reverse course is less than likely. They have no emotional tie to that model, so it would be a faux nostalgia for a time gone by.

Boomers grew up watching GI-produced Westerns on TV. Almost none of that generation had actually lived in the West they portrayed. Few if any were actually realistic. All the gritty Westerns came later.

[David Horn]

(06-11-2018, 10:56 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: Where it comes to the results of this 4T the jury is obviously still out. In the book even the authors couldn't accurate predict what the crisis would entail and we still don't know entirely. But on another thread I pointed out one of the things many futurists predicted that really went awry, and that was the one that modern technology would produce a world of ever increasing leisure. Still waiting for that one. Anyone really think we will ever see it?

<DEPRESSING_COMMENT>Unless the Protestant Work Ethic™ is repealed, the worker bees of the world will fully comply with the work demands of their "betters", and hours will be spent doing nothing more productive than enhanced navel gazing. Almost all productive work will be performed by robots, so worker-bee efforts will be compensated poorly -- moreso with time. For the executive and owner classes, lording it over others is the prime motivator they have to get out of bed. Thus, it's a symbiotic relationship. The workers need to work, and the executives need lackeys. Still, the treatment of worker bees might get too degrading, and a backlash may occur … may, not will. If it does, it might be the issue of the next 2T.
</DEPRESSING_COMMENT>

[pbrower2a]

(06-12-2018, 08:55 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-11-2018, 10:49 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: But in that "traditional" America there were, for the most part, no stores open on Sunday. Don't believe we have returned to that meme anywhere even in red America, Chick-Fil-A notwithstanding.

I seriously doubt though that the Millennials will make like the last generation of its archetype, the GIs, and return us to the days of the Organization Man/Suzy Homemaker lifestyle. Someone here mentioned nostalgia for the days of Mom and Pop shops on Main Street. For said return to happen many would have to be willing to sacrifice some of their conveniences.

Returning to "sense of things" doesn't require returning to the last implementation of that sense.  Millennials appear to be the first generation to reject the merchant-customer model.  They may come to regret it, but deciding to reverse course is less than likely.  They have no emotional tie to that model, so it would be a faux nostalgia for a time gone by.  

Boomers grew up watching GI-produced Westerns on TV.  Almost none of that generation had actually lived in the West they portrayed.  Few if any were actually realistic.  All the gritty Westerns came later.

Gunsmoke, Wagon Train, Rawhide, The Virginian, The Rifleman, Bonanza, and F-Troop had to be written to meet the TV code; as a result they had to tone down violence and sex. The high-quality Westerns on TV crowded out the cinematic Westerns , an dthe cinematic Westerns that began appearing in the 1960s (The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly; The Wild Bunch; and Once Upon a Time in the West emerged as alternatives about when the Production Code of American cinema broke down.

The last generation to know the Wild West was the first generation of actors, including Tom Mix. Lost actors such as Walter Brennan and even early GIs like Henry Fonda and Jimmy Stewart (who both appeared in some) and John Wayne (who starred in so many that he was practically typecast) could have never known about the Wild West from people who were there. For someone like Clint Eastwood, Wild West figures were fully ancestral in his time.

....

Stores closed on Sundays? Stores opened on Sundays to accommodate the expanded workweek and people working multiple jobs just to survive. For many, retail work on the weekends was and is a second job. When robotic work becomes a norm (and retailing will be made robotic in the sense of having mechanical robots instead of people ground
into the role of robots), people might not need to go shopping on Sundays.

(I remember the blue laws in Texas. It wasn't that you couldn't buy things on Sundays; it was that you could not buy only food, motor fuels, and medical necessities on Sundays. I once got an exemption by claiming to need a pitcher for water for my diabetic grandmother then visiting).

It could be that the current American economy runs on the principle: "we only pretend to pay you, but we certainly crack the whip", which reminds me of the old Soviet joke "They pretend to pay us and we pretend to work".

[David Horn]

(06-12-2018, 07:09 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: … Political leaders, not only Donald Trump, are rending our political institutions in ways inconceivable at any time since the Civil War. (American political life during the Second World War was quite placid by the standards of most times, as the focus of American life was on more pressing matters). The next few years will determine whether we have fascism or freedom. Remember: fascism and freedom are incompatible in ways in which certain forms of socialism (social democracy or a social-market society) endorse liberal democracy. Fascist politics is the denunciation of democracy; fascist economics implies a feudal organization with high technology (all the better for bamboozling the gullible masses, cowing the cowards, and eliminating dissidents).

The one thing that we Americans thought happens only to other countries -- a military coup -- seems far more possible now than at any time in American history. Our President better resembles either Benito Mussolini for arrogance or Juan Peron for demagoguery than any prior American President.

We will have either a New Birth of Freedom (Lincoln in his Gettysburg Address)  or an Orwellian nightmare.

I heard an interview with a long-serving Republican Congressman whose name escapes me.  He was being interviewed by his local media about the town hall meetings he was attending.   He made a chilling comment.  He was making roughly the same stump speech he's made for decades, which, until this year, had been well received by voters in his heavily GOP district.  This year, he got non-stop blowback.  What changed?  This year his traditional conservative positions (pro-NATO, trade and balanced budgets among others) were roundly criticized as "not adequately supportive of the President".  Needless to say, he has a primary challenger.  

If the Blue Wave election fails to emerge, start looking for the Brown Shirts.

[Eric the Green]

(06-12-2018, 09:23 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-12-2018, 07:09 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: … Political leaders, not only Donald Trump, are rending our political institutions in ways inconceivable at any time since the Civil War. (American political life during the Second World War was quite placid by the standards of most times, as the focus of American life was on more pressing matters). The next few years will determine whether we have fascism or freedom. Remember: fascism and freedom are incompatible in ways in which certain forms of socialism (social democracy or a social-market society) endorse liberal democracy. Fascist politics is the denunciation of democracy; fascist economics implies a feudal organization with high technology (all the better for bamboozling the gullible masses, cowing the cowards, and eliminating dissidents).

The one thing that we Americans thought happens only to other countries -- a military coup -- seems far more possible now than at any time in American history. Our President better resembles either Benito Mussolini for arrogance or Juan Peron for demagoguery than any prior American President.

We will have either a New Birth of Freedom (Lincoln in his Gettysburg Address)  or an Orwellian nightmare.

I heard an interview with a long-serving Republican Congressman whose name escapes me.  He was being interviewed by his local media about the town hall meetings he was attending.   He made a chilling comment.  He was making roughly the same stump speech he's made for decades, which, until this year, had been well received by voters in his heavily GOP district.  This year, he got non-stop blowback.  What changed?  This year his traditional conservative positions (pro-NATO, trade and balanced budgets among others) were roundly criticized as "not adequately supportive of the President".  Needless to say, he has a primary challenger.  

If the Blue Wave election fails to emerge, start looking for the Brown Shirts.

Yes. So it appears, Paul and David.

[sbarrera]

(06-12-2018, 08:55 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-11-2018, 10:49 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: But in that "traditional" America there were, for the most part, no stores open on Sunday. Don't believe we have returned to that meme anywhere even in red America, Chick-Fil-A notwithstanding.

I seriously doubt though that the Millennials will make like the last generation of its archetype, the GIs, and return us to the days of the Organization Man/Suzy Homemaker lifestyle. Someone here mentioned nostalgia for the days of Mom and Pop shops on Main Street. For said return to happen many would have to be willing to sacrifice some of their conveniences.

Returning to "sense of things" doesn't require returning to the last implementation of that sense.  Millennials appear to be the first generation to reject the merchant-customer model.  They may come to regret it, but deciding to reverse course is less than likely.  They have no emotional tie to that model, so it would be a faux nostalgia for a time gone by.  

Boomers grew up watching GI-produced Westerns on TV.  Almost none of that generation had actually lived in the West they portrayed.  Few if any were actually realistic.  All the gritty Westerns came later.

I'm curious - how are Millennials rejecting the merchant-customer model? Jeff Bezos is the ultimate merchant and the richest guy ever! Is it that online marketplaces are the new model?

[Marypoza]

Look the Donald is Prez. That should tell you all you need know. We are in Crises mode

[beechnut79]

(06-15-2018, 05:34 PM)Marypoza Wrote: Look the Donald is Prez. That should tell you all you need know. We are in Crises mode

My take on some of the things discussed in this thread in a nutshell:  First of all, collectively and personally we’re still faced with redefining, re-visioning and reclaiming our truth and beliefs Could very well be a new version of the three r's for our time. This could very well be why we are as a whole still hesitant to challenge authority and respect (Saturn) and power. Anybody care to analyze why the whole Occupy movement didn't gain the level of traction it needed to, and whether it could somehow be recycled?

Someone mentioned the idea of mom and pop stores: At times I think it would be nice and refreshing, the more I ponder this the more I feel that there isn't any way to return to the days of mom and pop shops on Main Street, except maybe in isolated rural small towns too small and/or too poor to be coveted by the Big Boys of Retail. Nor are we likely to see a return to the days of lifetime employment within one company. This along with the detached suburban private home embedded the bedrock of the American Dream of the postwar years. More than likely a new American Dream will need to be created.

If we are really serious about  climate change and global warming we need to think about reducing our near total dependency on the private automobile for transportation needs. It has now been nearly a half century since we were first warned about this when we had to wait in long gasoline lines during the oil shocks of the 1970s. Not much has changed since then, in fact auto dependency could be even worse now despite the advent of the rideshare compaines. They may have actually ended up putting more cars on the road as opposed to reducing the need. Because they have pretty much gotten the public brainwashed to think one can make big money as a rideshare driver. Their biggest con game, however, especially in Uber's case, is telling their drivers that they are their own boss. This is complete hogwash. You can decided when and where you want to drive, but on everything else it is definitely Uber's way or the highway.

We really do need to reduce auto dependency but am convinced it won't happen while I am still alive (now 73).

My closing thought here:  If we all spend some time doing our inner work, our outer world will progress beyond our imagination.

[pbrower2a]

(06-14-2018, 07:08 PM)sbarrera Wrote:

(06-12-2018, 08:55 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-11-2018, 10:49 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: But in that "traditional" America there were, for the most part, no stores open on Sunday. Don't believe we have returned to that meme anywhere even in red America, Chick-Fil-A notwithstanding.

I seriously doubt though that the Millennials will make like the last generation of its archetype, the GIs, and return us to the days of the Organization Man/Suzy Homemaker lifestyle. Someone here mentioned nostalgia for the days of Mom and Pop shops on Main Street. For said return to happen many would have to be willing to sacrifice some of their conveniences.

Returning to "sense of things" doesn't require returning to the last implementation of that sense.  Millennials appear to be the first generation to reject the merchant-customer model.  They may come to regret it, but deciding to reverse course is less than likely.  They have no emotional tie to that model, so it would be a faux nostalgia for a time gone by.  

Boomers grew up watching GI-produced Westerns on TV.  Almost none of that generation had actually lived in the West they portrayed.  Few if any were actually realistic.  All the gritty Westerns came later.

I'm curious - how are Millennials rejecting the merchant-customer model? Jeff Bezos is the ultimate merchant and the richest guy ever! Is it that online marketplaces are the new model?

Sears got its start (outside its flagship store) as a catalog retailer. One got the catalog and bought seemingly anything (people even bought automobiles and kit housing) available at the time through mail order. Amazon uses the computer. At one time, the mailbox was effectively a Sears outlet; your computer is now effectively an outlet of Amazon.com. Thus the mode can change, and certainly the technology of stuff that you buy, but the retailing is much the same. Pick out of a printed catalog (Sears in its heyday) or search for the item yourself (Amazon probably in its heyday). The difference for all practical purposes? An outdated Sears catalog might become toilet paper.

Efficiency and access make retail success. What is failing is the brick-and-motor stores. Many of the retail buildings are beached whales, once-proud behemoths now rotting hulks. Maybe in halcyon times the shopping mall that was an expensive way to sell stuff to people could turn their novelty into a sort of entertainment. When there was little better to do with spare time than go shopping, and America had a free-spending middle class with predictable demographics (white and Anglo, so these places did not have to accommodate cultural difference as they do now), the malls could become forums for stereotyped shopping in rigidly-managed boutiques if one did not shop in the 'anchor' stores.

OK, retail stores never recovered from the 2007-2009 downturn. People found that they could do things other than shop... and they could hold off on buying the latest gadget or fad, sticking with old stuff instead of casting it off until it became unserviceable. 

Americans loved the razzle-dazzle of retailing in the 1980s. It is now stale and largely irrelevant. We are now in much the same stage of the 4T as Americans were in the last one in the late 1930s. Of course the political realities are different.  If Obama wasn't the new FDR, Donald Trump is the antithesis of FDR. Trump is close to being an out-and-out fascist in a country with no tradition of support for fascist policies except among the lunatic fringe.

Of course I do not expect America to end up in a war with Germany, Italy, and Japan; we do not have slavery rending America; and we have no problem with British overlords trying to micromanage everything in the Colonies. Every Crisis Era is different because the Big Problem is different every time. This time it is the prospect of government by economic elites, for economic elites, and by economic elites -- Mussolini's corporate state that assumes that a foundry laborer has more in common with the ownership and management of the foundry than he does with a mine worker.

[David Horn]

(06-14-2018, 07:08 PM)sbarrera Wrote:

(06-12-2018, 08:55 AM)David Horn Wrote: ...  Millennials appear to be the first generation to reject the merchant-customer model.  They may come to regret it, but deciding to reverse course is less than likely.  They have no emotional tie to that model, so it would be a faux nostalgia for a time gone by...

I'm curious - how are Millennials rejecting the merchant-customer model? Jeff Bezos is the ultimate merchant and the richest guy ever! Is it that online marketplaces are the new model?

By that I meant the transactional relationship between a physical merchant and a customer. If there is no need or desire to have a physical relationship to a product prior to buying it, as seems to be the case today, then the acquisition process is no longer one where, for example, we try on clothes and pick the ones we like. Now, we just click and acquire. Will that kill branding or make it stronger? There doesn't seem to be much else tying us to our purchases.

[pbrower2a]

(06-18-2018, 10:46 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-14-2018, 07:08 PM)sbarrera Wrote:

(06-12-2018, 08:55 AM)David Horn Wrote: ...  Millennials appear to be the first generation to reject the merchant-customer model.  They may come to regret it, but deciding to reverse course is less than likely.  They have no emotional tie to that model, so it would be a faux nostalgia for a time gone by...

I'm curious - how are Millennials rejecting the merchant-customer model? Jeff Bezos is the ultimate merchant and the richest guy ever! Is it that online marketplaces are the new model?

By that I meant the transactional relationship between a physical merchant and a customer.  If there is no need or desire to have a physical relationship to a product prior to buying it, as seems to be the case today, then the acquisition process is no longer one where, for example, we try on clothes and pick the ones we like.  Now, we just click and acquire.  Will that kill branding or make it stronger?  There doesn't seem to be much else tying us to our purchases.

The idea was that the retail clerk knew more about the product than did the customer, whether the object was clothing or a houseware item. So it was in family businesses. Corporate retailers did not have the employee turnover that they ended up with once retail became the work that people recognized as the employer of last resort. If you worked for a department store you used your store discount to get nice clothes for the job -- or for interviewing for work with real pay.

Now nobody really trusts a retail clerk to know anything. One of the most successful dry-goods retailers is Kohl's -- and it has taken away the chatty clerk and put a grocery-style checkout  where one buys one's stuff.

[Eric the Green]

(06-18-2018, 10:46 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-14-2018, 07:08 PM)sbarrera Wrote:

(06-12-2018, 08:55 AM)David Horn Wrote: ...  Millennials appear to be the first generation to reject the merchant-customer model.  They may come to regret it, but deciding to reverse course is less than likely.  They have no emotional tie to that model, so it would be a faux nostalgia for a time gone by...

I'm curious - how are Millennials rejecting the merchant-customer model? Jeff Bezos is the ultimate merchant and the richest guy ever! Is it that online marketplaces are the new model?

By that I meant the transactional relationship between a physical merchant and a customer.  If there is no need or desire to have a physical relationship to a product prior to buying it, as seems to be the case today, then the acquisition process is no longer one where, for example, we try on clothes and pick the ones we like.  Now, we just click and acquire.  Will that kill branding or make it stronger?  There doesn't seem to be much else tying us to our purchases.

It just means we don't know what we're buying. It probably makes a good business for shipping companies. Amazon even has lockers set up for people to return items at convenient places, I believe.

[Ragnarök_62]

(06-18-2018, 11:05 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-18-2018, 10:46 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-14-2018, 07:08 PM)sbarrera Wrote:

(06-12-2018, 08:55 AM)David Horn Wrote: ...  Millennials appear to be the first generation to reject the merchant-customer model.  They may come to regret it, but deciding to reverse course is less than likely.  They have no emotional tie to that model, so it would be a faux nostalgia for a time gone by...

I'm curious - how are Millennials rejecting the merchant-customer model? Jeff Bezos is the ultimate merchant and the richest guy ever! Is it that online marketplaces are the new model?

By that I meant the transactional relationship between a physical merchant and a customer.  If there is no need or desire to have a physical relationship to a product prior to buying it, as seems to be the case today, then the acquisition process is no longer one where, for example, we try on clothes and pick the ones we like.  Now, we just click and acquire.  Will that kill branding or make it stronger?  There doesn't seem to be much else tying us to our purchases.

It just means we don't know what we're buying. It probably makes a good business for shipping companies. Amazon even has lockers set up for people to return items at convenient places, I believe.

Yeah, whatever, man.     Convenience has a price you know. Merchant customer model. Nope, it's a merchant-sucker-NSA model. David's right, they're gonna regret it, big time.  

https://www.theonion.com/jeff-bezos-anno...1826395638

[Eric the Green]

(06-18-2018, 11:16 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(06-18-2018, 11:05 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-18-2018, 10:46 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-14-2018, 07:08 PM)sbarrera Wrote:

(06-12-2018, 08:55 AM)David Horn Wrote: ...  Millennials appear to be the first generation to reject the merchant-customer model.  They may come to regret it, but deciding to reverse course is less than likely.  They have no emotional tie to that model, so it would be a faux nostalgia for a time gone by...

I'm curious - how are Millennials rejecting the merchant-customer model? Jeff Bezos is the ultimate merchant and the richest guy ever! Is it that online marketplaces are the new model?

By that I meant the transactional relationship between a physical merchant and a customer.  If there is no need or desire to have a physical relationship to a product prior to buying it, as seems to be the case today, then the acquisition process is no longer one where, for example, we try on clothes and pick the ones we like.  Now, we just click and acquire.  Will that kill branding or make it stronger?  There doesn't seem to be much else tying us to our purchases.

It just means we don't know what we're buying. It probably makes a good business for shipping companies. Amazon even has lockers set up for people to return items at convenient places, I believe.

Yeah, whatever, man.     Convenience has a price you know. Merchant customer model. Nope, it's a merchant-sucker-NSA model. David's right, they're gonna regret it, big time.  

https://www.theonion.com/jeff-bezos-anno...1826395638

"deciding to reverse course is less than likely" It's rather strange since this has taken hold so quickly. Only younger millennials and younger Zers have this model so ingrained. I expect a revolt against everything virtual in the next awakening, which will be very green and back to nature and reality oriented. But Millennials won't be the driving force in that; they'll be defending the virtual model. Old fashioned will be new and new will be old fashioned for a while during the next 2T.

[beechnut79]

(06-18-2018, 11:46 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-18-2018, 11:16 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(06-18-2018, 11:05 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-18-2018, 10:46 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-14-2018, 07:08 PM)sbarrera Wrote: I'm curious - how are Millennials rejecting the merchant-customer model? Jeff Bezos is the ultimate merchant and the richest guy ever! Is it that online marketplaces are the new model?

By that I meant the transactional relationship between a physical merchant and a customer.  If there is no need or desire to have a physical relationship to a product prior to buying it, as seems to be the case today, then the acquisition process is no longer one where, for example, we try on clothes and pick the ones we like.  Now, we just click and acquire.  Will that kill branding or make it stronger?  There doesn't seem to be much else tying us to our purchases.

It just means we don't know what we're buying. It probably makes a good business for shipping companies. Amazon even has lockers set up for people to return items at convenient places, I believe.

Yeah, whatever, man.     Convenience has a price you know. Merchant customer model. Nope, it's a merchant-sucker-NSA model. David's right, they're gonna regret it, big time.  

https://www.theonion.com/jeff-bezos-anno...1826395638

"deciding to reverse course is less than likely" It's rather strange since this has taken hold so quickly. Only younger millennials and younger Zers have this model so ingrained. I expect a revolt against everything virtual in the next awakening, which will be very green and back to nature and reality oriented. But Millennials won't be the driving force in that; they'll be defending the virtual model. Old fashioned will be new and new will be old fashioned for a while during the next 2T.

Do you see the advent of rideshare companies (Uber, Lyft) and food delivery apps such as DoorDash and GrubHub being part of the new wave of convenience obsessed mindset as well? So far we have not however had the generational tug-of-war that we had back in the 2T. However, the current mindset can feel like a tug-of-war between reality and dreams. Not sure though if this is part of the whole red vs. blue divide or not. With the advent of the Yuppie culture during the mid-1980s their battle cry was that "you can have it all". Is the current mindset more one of "you can have it all, but it may not be you imagine? When I was growing up we were often taught that if you focus on what you want but leave room for the details to fill themselves in, everything magically falls into place. As time went along I began to question that concept. For something to fall into place, a good job, good friend or spouse, etc. you have to help things along to make them happen. Reminds me of when they first came out with some of these stop smoking pills, etc. Never was a smoker but one day I did ask if they really work. The response I got was that yes they can, but you really have to help the process along. You have to really want to do it.

Would love to hear you elaborate more on the final sentence of your post and if that means that once we exit the next 2T and enter the next 3T that it will be back to business as usual again just like it was this time around.

[pbrower2a]

(06-19-2018, 10:55 AM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(06-18-2018, 11:46 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-18-2018, 11:16 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(06-18-2018, 11:05 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-18-2018, 10:46 AM)David Horn Wrote: By that I meant the transactional relationship between a physical merchant and a customer.  If there is no need or desire to have a physical relationship to a product prior to buying it, as seems to be the case today, then the acquisition process is no longer one where, for example, we try on clothes and pick the ones we like.  Now, we just click and acquire.  Will that kill branding or make it stronger?  There doesn't seem to be much else tying us to our purchases.

It just means we don't know what we're buying. It probably makes a good business for shipping companies. Amazon even has lockers set up for people to return items at convenient places, I believe.

Yeah, whatever, man.     Convenience has a price you know. Merchant customer model. Nope, it's a merchant-sucker-NSA model. David's right, they're gonna regret it, big time.  

https://www.theonion.com/jeff-bezos-anno...1826395638

"deciding to reverse course is less than likely" It's rather strange since this has taken hold so quickly. Only younger millennials and younger Zers have this model so ingrained. I expect a revolt against everything virtual in the next awakening, which will be very green and back to nature and reality oriented. But Millennials won't be the driving force in that; they'll be defending the virtual model. Old fashioned will be new and new will be old fashioned for a while during the next 2T.

Do you see the advent of rideshare companies (Uber, Lyft) and food delivery apps such as DoorDash and GrubHub being part of the new wave of convenience obsessed mindset as well? So far we have not however had the generational tug-of-war that we had back in the 2T. However, the current mindset can feel like a tug-of-war between reality and dreams. Not sure though if this is part of the whole red vs. blue divide or not. With the advent of the Yuppie culture during the mid-1980s their battle cry was that "you can have it all". Is the current mindset more one of "you can have it all, but it may not be you imagine? When I was growing up we were often taught that if you focus on what you want but leave room for the details to fill themselves in, everything magically falls into place. As time went along I began to question that concept. For something to fall into place, a good job, good friend or spouse, etc. you have to help things along to make them happen. Reminds me of when they first came out with some of these stop smoking pills, etc. Never was a smoker but one day I did ask if they really work. The response I got was that yes they can, but you really have to help the process along. You have to really want to do it.

Would love to hear you elaborate more on the final sentence of your post and if that means that once we exit the next 2T and enter the next 3T that it will be back to business as usual again just like it was this time around.

Paying dearly for convenience makes little sense. Most of life is a trade-off. and any high-priced convenience implies a huge opportunity cost. Thus an investment banker might prefer to have lunch brought in than to take a trip to  Bob Evans, Big Boy, Panda Express, or Olive Garden (these are jokes, of course, as dining out). 

We cannot have it all. Real estate is expensive even if it is a slum apartment, and cheap places to live are those where there are few opportunities. Who wants to be a sharecropper?  Most people must hold on for dear life to jobs that most people would hate. You might want to say "take this job and shove it", but your boss will tell you to take that job and shut your mouth except to breathe.

I am reminded of a saying in the movie business: you can get quality, go under budget, or get the picture rushed to market... but you can't get all three.

[David Horn]

(06-18-2018, 11:46 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: "deciding to reverse course is less than likely" It's rather strange since this has taken hold so quickly. Only younger millennials and younger Zers have this model so ingrained. I expect a revolt against everything virtual in the next awakening, which will be very green and back to nature and reality oriented. But Millennials won't be the driving force in that; they'll be defending the virtual model. Old fashioned will be new and new will be old fashioned for a while during the next 2T.

I agree that the anti-social merchandizing model will be challenged by the neo-Prophets, but what form it will take is impossible to know this far out.  It's unlikely to be a throwback to something old, rather a gateway to something new.  By then, the world will look even less familiar to the younger Boomers and older Xers still in circulation.  Don't count on those gray-hairs helping to define it.  They'll be doing well just living through it.

[sbarrera]

(06-18-2018, 11:16 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(06-18-2018, 11:05 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-18-2018, 10:46 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-14-2018, 07:08 PM)sbarrera Wrote:

(06-12-2018, 08:55 AM)David Horn Wrote: ...  Millennials appear to be the first generation to reject the merchant-customer model.  They may come to regret it, but deciding to reverse course is less than likely.  They have no emotional tie to that model, so it would be a faux nostalgia for a time gone by...

I'm curious - how are Millennials rejecting the merchant-customer model? Jeff Bezos is the ultimate merchant and the richest guy ever! Is it that online marketplaces are the new model?

By that I meant the transactional relationship between a physical merchant and a customer.  If there is no need or desire to have a physical relationship to a product prior to buying it, as seems to be the case today, then the acquisition process is no longer one where, for example, we try on clothes and pick the ones we like.  Now, we just click and acquire.  Will that kill branding or make it stronger?  There doesn't seem to be much else tying us to our purchases.

It just means we don't know what we're buying. It probably makes a good business for shipping companies. Amazon even has lockers set up for people to return items at convenient places, I believe.

Yeah, whatever, man.     Convenience has a price you know. Merchant customer model. Nope, it's a merchant-sucker-NSA model. David's right, they're gonna regret it, big time.  

https://www.theonion.com/jeff-bezos-anno...1826395638

The merchant is replaced by an AI and the marketing is easier. It's the future predicted in the film Minority Report.

(That onion article is hilarious)