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Coming back
#1
My name is Tristan and I used to be involved on the old Fourth Turning forum back in the day. I was born in 1983 and currently live in Hobart, which is in the Island state of Tasmania, which is part of nation of Australia. I have been busy with my life in recent years, however the saeculum still remains on my mind. I must admit William Strauss and Neil Howe's predictions have been extremely accurate so far and my faith in the saeculum is stronger than ever. I am a short to medium term pessimist, however a longer-term optimism since winter will end eventually and spring will come. 
 
Generationally I would see myself as a late wave Reactive or Nomad, since Australia I estimate about 4 years behind North America when it comes to turnings. I do see people a few years younger than me in a different generation, which I find hard to relate to. Personally, I do feel I have become a “young fogey”, which Strauss and Howe did predict that for Generation X as they entered midlife hehe

When it comes to the Millennial generation here in Australia I am very optimistic about them and they will achieve a lot. However I am worried especially once we suffer through our own Great Financial Crisis (which has been delayed), some authoritarian regime supported by the Millennials could arise in response to the likely response from the political class, namely a very expensive public bailout of the banks facing collapse. 
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#2
(09-02-2018, 05:23 AM)Teejay Wrote: ... When it comes to the Millennial generation here in Australia I am very optimistic about them and they will achieve a lot. However I am worried especially once we suffer through our own Great Financial Crisis (which has been delayed), some authoritarian regime supported by the Millennials could arise in response to the likely response from the political class, namely a very expensive public bailout of the banks facing collapse. 

The banking industry is derelict worldwide.  I'll be honest.  I don't know how to respond, but it's obvious that allowing them to gamble, lose and tap the public purse to cover their losses can't continue.  I actually think the collapse might start in China, but once it starts it will go global very quickly.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#3
(09-02-2018, 07:54 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(09-02-2018, 05:23 AM)Teejay Wrote: ... When it comes to the Millennial generation here in Australia I am very optimistic about them and they will achieve a lot. However I am worried especially once we suffer through our own Great Financial Crisis (which has been delayed), some authoritarian regime supported by the Millennials could arise in response to the likely response from the political class, namely a very expensive public bailout of the banks facing collapse. 

The banking industry is derelict worldwide.  I'll be honest.  I don't know how to respond, but it's obvious that allowing them to gamble, lose and tap the public purse to cover their losses can't continue.  I actually think the collapse might start in China, but once it starts it will go global very quickly.

I hold out hope that the Labor Party here in Australia decides to temporarily nationalize the banks instead of bailing them out. They are very likely going to win the next Federal election in 2019. That would much better than an incredibly expensive bailout which I estimate would between 500 billion to 1 trillion dollars.

Right now they are campaigning on a very mild populist message, however I believe they should not be support the current levels of high immigration which is running at a net level of 5.5 per 1000 people. This policy is also anti-ethical to the working class base vote of the party, since they have to compete with jobs with these newly arrived immigrants. Not to mention the Millennials graduating from the schools and universities have to often compete the large number of international students (mostly from India) who stay in the country after they graduate.

With the current governing Liberal Party it is split between those who want to reduce immigration numbers and those who want to maintain these levels. The latter are just barely dominant in the party and especially among the corporate elite which benefit from suppressed wage levels this level of immigration brings. However in the recent leadership challenge where the "globalist" leader Malcolm Turnbull was challenged  for the position of Liberal Party leader or Prime Minister by the more "nationalist" Peter Dutton, the latter group lost and another 'globalist' Scott Morrison became leader of the Liberal Party and Prime Minister. 

Also more prominent parliamentarians who campaigned for Peter Dutton will likely face defeat in their electorates come the election. Because the voters are now aware how right-wing they are, since Australia is a more progressive nation politically than the United States. Therefore; I am predicting the Labor Party will become more left-wing and populist, while the Liberals will remain a 'globalist' party orientated towards the Middle and Upper classes.

Although I have to say there is a reasonable chance once the Liberals enter opposition they could adopt a Trump style agenda of National Conservatism and Economic Nationalism. Since the forces advocating this position are dominant in the party membership and managed to come close to getting their candidate elected in the recent Liberal Party leadership ballot (40 out of 85 votes).
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