Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 30-Aug-18 World View -- Diplomats fear that proposed Serbia-Kosovo peace deal will lead to Balkans war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Diplomats fear that proposed Serbia-Kosovo peace deal will lead to Balkans war
  
• Former Balkan diplomats say that land swap proposal ignores 1,000 years of bloodshed
  

****
**** Diplomats fear that proposed Serbia-Kosovo peace deal will lead to Balkans war
****


Serbia president Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo president Hashim Thaci (Reuters)

The breakup of Yugoslavia led to the Balkan wars of the 1990s, which
were the bloodiest European wars since the end of World War II, and
have not been completely settled. In particular, there is still a
border dispute between Kosovo and Serbia, and there are still
Nato peacekeepers in the region.

Neither Serbia nor Kosovo is a member of the European Union, although
Serbia is going through the accession process. Kosovo claimed its
independence in 2008 and is recognized by the EU, Nato and the US, but
five countries] -- Russia, Greece, Cyprus, Serbia, Spain, and
Azerbaijan -- consider it to be a "fake country," and do not recognize
its independence.

But now the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia have say that they have
reached a peace agreement between the two countries.

Serbia president Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo president Hashim Thaci
announced an agreement on Saturday to swap some territories and reach
a permanent peace agreement. Part of the deal would involve
unspecified "border corrections" or "territory swaps" between the two
countries. It's believed that the proposal is that four
municipalities in the north of Kosovo which host a majority Serbian
population could be given to Serbia while Bujanovac and Presevo,
municipalities in Serbia with mainly ethnic Albanian populations,
might be divided and given to Kosovo.

This proposal has caused something of a panic among the people
living in the areas involved. For example, a Serb living in
a mostly Albanian region of Serbia would suddenly find that
suddenly he's a citizen of Kosovo, and no longer in Serbia.

Another issue is that the deal could set a precedent that other
countries might try to follow, including Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Macedonia and Montenegro.

Kosovo's president Thaci said on Saturday:

<QUOTE>"Kosovo is determined to reach a binding legal
agreement with Serbia. The time to do this is now. We have a
short window of opportunity. It is not easy at all; it is very,
very difficult. That’s why everybody has to be behind
it."<END QUOTE>

Despite the widespread opposition to the idea, it may be adopted
anyway because it would allow both Serbia and Kosovo to join the
European Union. The (laughable) theory is that once both countries
are in the EU, then the border adjustment won't make any difference
because borders will no longer matter. Euro News and B92 (Serbia) and Bloomberg

****
**** Former Balkan diplomats say that land swap proposal ignores 1,000 years of bloodshed
****

There are certainly plenty of historical examples to show that setting
borders to separate different ethnic groups doesn't always work, and
may never work. An example that comes to mind is the 1947 agreement
to partition the Indian subcontinent, supposedly putting all the
Hindus into India and all the Muslims into Pakistan. The result was
the Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of the twentieth
centuries, when Muslims in India traveled to Pakistan, and Hindus in
Pakistan traveled to India, with any property disputes settled by
murder. That war has not been settled to this day, with
the threat of a new war in Kashmir and Jammu.

Another example is the United Nations partitioning of Palestine in
1948, creating the state of Israel. That led to the extremely bloody
war between Arabs and Jews. That war also has not been settled to
this day, with the threat of a new war between Arabs and Jews.

So it's not surprising that three former High Representative’s for
Bosnia and Herzegovina -- Carl Bildt, Paddy Ashdown, and Christian
Schwarz-Schilling -- are expressing strong objections to the
land swap proposal. In the letter they wrote jointly, they
said:

<QUOTE>"We know Bosnia and Herzegovina well enough to know
that this will give comfort and support to those who would break
up the country, who are already calling for a return to the status
quo ante in Dayton, unravelling all we and our Bosnian partners
have worked for over more than two decades.

We know the EU and Europe well enough to know that our principles
and our bloody history teach us that sustainable peace can only
come when we learn to live in multi-ethnic communities, rather
than re-drawing borders to create mono-ethnic ones;

We can in short, think of no policy more likely to lead us back to
division and conflict in the Balkans than the one which some are
apparently now supporting."<END QUOTE>

Paddy Ashdown, interviewed on the BBC, added the following about the
border adjustments (my transcription):

<QUOTE>"But in reality, I think it will set in train a series
of events that will certainly add to those who want to destabilize
Bosnia Herzegovina, certainly undermine the possibility of the
solution in Macedonia, and if it should happen, it will certainly
institute a movement of population of minorities from all of those
areas back to their home territory, and by the way it will be
hugely comforting to Vladimir Putin who is trying to do exactly
the same thing in Ukraine. It's a very, very very bad thing, and
a very dangerous one.

I've been the high representative in Bosnia for four years in this
matter, and I could have always, in a heartbeat, in a murmer, have
got all of the national leaders, the ethnic leaders of their
populations, to divide the country up into little ethnic pockets
to preserve their ability to exercise control over their people.
But the founding principle of Europe, one that we have learned for
over a thousand years of bloodshed, is that we do not redraw
borders to make nationally or ethnically homogeneous areas. We
can make peace in a multi-ethnic spaces that are already there.
And this is going exactly against what the practice in the Balkans
have so far been, it will institute a round of border changes and
I have no doubt whatsoever that it will destabilize states, it
will move towards more ethnically pure states that are bound to
come into conflicts with each other, and will offend the European
principle that we do not redraw borders.

The positive suggestion is that we continue to try to make sure
that the borders that have been drawn in Kosovo are ones in which
everybody across the whole of Kosovo can join the European Union,
and if they achieve standards to do so, then borders won't
matter."<END QUOTE>

It's interesting that those who support territory swaps and those
who oppose territory swaps predict the same outcomes -- that
borders will no longer matter. I know of no historical precedent
to support that assumption, and it's hard to believe that Ashdown
or anyone who is familiar with the history of the Balkans could
possibly believe that.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, The Balkans region,
which has been the site of repeated crisis wars throughout history
between the Christian civilization and the Muslim civilization, may
well provide the start of the next major European war. Balkan Insight and Paddy Ashdown and N1 (Balkans) and Map Universal

Related Articles:

• European officials worry that Macedonia's chaos could destabilize the Balkans (07-May-2017)
  
  
• Protesters storm Macedonia's parliament fearing calls for 'Greater Albania' (29-Apr-2017)
  
  
• 22 die in Macedonian police gun battles with Albanian militants (11-May-2015)
  
  
• Sarajevo Serbs unveil monument to Gavrilo Princip, who triggered World War I (29-Jun-2014)
  
  
• Europe cheers the capture of Serbian Ratko Mladic, the butcher of Srebrenica (27-May-2011)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yugoslavia, Balkans, Serbia, Kosovo,
Aleksandar Vucic, Hashim Thaci, Bujanovac, Presevo,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, Montenegro,
Carl Bildt, Paddy Ashdown, Christian Schwarz-Schilling

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 31-Aug-18 World View -- US court seizes Venezuela's Citgo, as Argentina's peso crashes

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US court seizes Socialist Venezuela's Citgo as compensation for mine nationalization
  
• Argentina's peso collapses after central bank raises interest rate to 60%
  
• Turkey and Argentina lead the world's developing countries in falling currencies
  

****
**** US court seizes Socialist Venezuela's Citgo as compensation for mine nationalization
****


The Citgo sign has been a Boston landmark since its Cities Service predecessor sign was erected in 1940 (Boston Globe)

A US court has awarded Citgo, the Houston Texas based subsidiary of
Venezuela's nationalized state-owned oil company Petróleos de
Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA), to a Canadian mining firm Crystallex.

Allowing Crystallex to seize Citgo gives the mining company a kind of
revenge against the Socialist government of Venezuela. In 2008, when
Hugo Chávez was running Venezuela, Chávez ordered the seizure and
nationalization of Las Cristales, the local mining operation run by
Crystallex.

In 2016, a World Bank arbitration tribunal awarded Crystallex $1.2
billion plus $200 in interest, totaling $1.4 billion, which is the
amount that a US court judge is ordering Venezuela to pay to
Crystallex. In lieu of that payment, the judge has awarded Citgo to
Crystallex.

Citgo is valued at $8 billion, a lot more than the amount owed to
Crystallex. However another nationalized state-owned oil company,
Russia's Rosneft, claims that it owns 49.9% of Citgo. Rosneft
received the stake in Citgo in 2016 as collateral for a $1.5 billion
loan to Venezuela. Rosneft is asking the judge to split up Citgo into
pieces, rather award the whole thing to Crystallex. Venezuelanalysis and
OilPrice.com and Mining.com and Reuters and Boston Globe

****
**** Argentina's peso collapses after central bank raises interest rate to 60%
****

As we reported in June, Argentina forced to beg the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) for a $50 billion loan to prevent the country
from going bankrupt. The IMF is extremely unpopular in
Argentina, since the people blame the IMF for causing a major
economic crisis in 2000, when the IMF pulled the plug on another
load because Argentina was failing to live up to the austerity
commitments it made as a condition for receiving the loan.

Argentina is heavily in debt, having gone on a spending spree the last
decade. Since it's now impossible for Argentina to pay its debts, the
value of the peso has been falling continually against the dollar all
year. When the IMF agreed to loan the $50 billion in June, it was
hoped that the value of the peso would stabilize, but it hasn't.
People have been selling their Argentina bonds, denominated in pesos,
for US dollars to prevent personal losses, which has caused the peso
to fall.

On Thursday, the government increased its astronomical 45% interest
rate to an even more astronomical 60% interest rate, in the hope that
investors would stop selling bonds, since they could get 60% interest.
Furthermore, president Mauricio Macri announced that he was going to
ask the IMF to provide the $60 billion loan earlier than had been
previously agreed. Macri had hoped that these two announcements would
stabilize the peso.

Instead, investors seemed to have decided that the government was
desperate and panicking, so the peso ended the day down an additional
12% against the dollar.

IMF managing director Christine Lagarde says that revisions to the
timeline for the loan are being considered favorably, because of "the
more adverse international market conditions, which had not been fully
anticipated in the original program."

She added: "I am confident that the strong commitment and
determination of the Argentine authorities will be critical in
steering Argentina through the current difficult circumstances, and
will ultimately strengthen the economy for the benefit of all
Argentines." CNBC and NPR and Forbes

****
**** Turkey and Argentina lead the world's developing countries in falling currencies
****

Turkey's lira currency fell another 4% against the dollar on Thursday,
totalling 40% since the beginning of the year. Thursday's loss was
triggered by reports that a Turkish central bank deputy governor is
about to resign.

Like many countries, Turkey is deeply in dollar-denominated debt that
it can't repay, and investors holding Turkish lira are exchanging them
for dollars to preserve value. However, as we reported earlier this month,
Turkey's economic problems
are exacerbated by president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who says that
interest rates are "evil," and who believes that lower interest rates
cause lower inflation, which is the opposite of the case, and who is
imposing his delusional economic theories on the central bank. No
wonder a central bank government may resign.

When we say that Turkey's lira currency has fallen 40% against the
dollar, we can say it a different way: that the value of the dollar
has been rising against Turkey's currency, as well as other national
currencies.

Developing country currencies have been particularly hard hit
by the strengthening dollar. Many of them have borrowed heavily
in dollar-denominated loans, which they can't repay with their
weaker currencies.

The following table shows the amount that different emerging country
currencies have fallen against the dollar this year:

Argentine peso -53.9%
Turkish lira -43.5%
Brazilian real -20.2%
South African rand -16.1%
Russian ruble -15.6%
Indian rupee -9.7%
Chilean peso -9.3%
Hungarian forint -7.7%
Indonesian rupiah -7.6%
Philippine peso -6.6%
Polish zloty -5.6%

The United States has one of the worst borrowing and spending records
in the world, but so far investors haven't punished us for this. When
investors decide to do that, it won't be pretty. CNBC and Bloomberg and Daily Express (London)

Related articles:

• Socialist Venezuela introduces new fantasy currency and new Socialist changes (19-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Socialist Venezuela's state-owned PDVSA oil company near total collapse (21-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Argentina faces major financial crisis as IMF loans it $50 billion (09-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Turkey's lira currency crumbles as Trump turns the screws after Erdogan double-cross (11-Aug-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, Nicolás Maduro,
Petróleos de Venezuela S.A., PDVSA, Citgo,
Crystallex, Las Cristales, Russia, Rosneft,
Argentina, Mauricio Macri,
International Monetary Fund, IMF, Christine Lagarde
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 1-Sep-18 World View -- Alexander Zakharchenko, leader of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, is assassinated

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Alexander Zakharchenko, leader of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, is assassinated
  
• Alexander Zakharchenko was increasingly annoying to his masters in Moscow
  

****
**** Alexander Zakharchenko, leader of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, is assassinated
****


Alexander Zakharchenko (Getty)

Alexander Zakharchenko, leader of the Russian troops in eastern
Ukraine and prime minister of the so-called Donetsk People's Republic
(DPR), was killed on Friday in a terrorist bomb blast at a local
restaurant. The bomb had been deliberately planted in the restaurant,
the Separ in central Donetsk, which was frequented often by
Zakharchenko.

Russia's defense ministry initially blamed the bombing directly on
Ukraine, but this accusation was not repeated as a DPR official
announced that the suspects had already been detained within Donetsk
itself. However, Ukraine Security Services and the United States were
still blamed for organizing the attack. In view of the attack, a
state of emergency was declared, and the borders were closed.

It's worthwhile providing a brief catalog of Russian statements about
the war in Ukraine, almost all of which have been provable lies. The
war in Ukraine began in 2014 when Russian troops invaded eastern
Ukraine. Russia always denied that there were Russian army troops in
Ukraine, and when it was proven there were, the Russians claimed that
they were just "volunteers." That also turned out to be
disinformation, as 80% of Russia's army is a volunteer army. America
has an all-volunteer army. So saying that Russian troops in Ukraine
are "volunteers" is like saying that America's troops in Iraq and
Afghanistan are "volunteers."

In July 2014, the Russians in eastern Ukraine shot down Malaysia
Airlines Flight MH17 passenger plane with a Russian Buk 9M38 missile
that was transported by a Volvo truck from Russia, as was confirmed in
2015 by a Dutch report following a lengthy investigation. Russia made
one moronic claim after another, everything from the claim that MH17
fell out of the sky by itself to a claim that the US shot down MH17 to
embarrass Putin.

After Putin's Russian forces invaded Crimea, Putin denied that there
were Russian troops in Crimea, but later he awarded a medal to the
leaders of the successful invasion. Putin said there were no plans to
annex Crimea, but then Russia annexed Crimea soon after.

So he war in east Ukraine is being fought by Russian troops --
"volunteers" -- supplied with heavy Russian weapons, including tanks.
Alexander Zakharchenko web site and Sputnik News (Moscow) and BBC and Sputnik News

****
**** Alexander Zakharchenko was increasingly annoying to his masters in Moscow
****

Although the Russian government reflexively blamed Ukraine and the
United States for the explosion, there are plenty of reasons to look
elsewhere for a culprit, especially Moscow.

Zakharchenko was said to have as many lives as a cat, because he
survived numerous assassination attempts. Friday's successful attack
was believed to be the ninth assassination attempt, which meant that
on Friday he used up the last of his nine lives.

According to numerous analysts, Zakharchenko was a major annoyance to
his masters in Moscow, and was also facing dissension within his
officers in Donetsk, people who would like to replace him. He
repeatedly declared that he would attack Kiev, and the DPR would
replace the government of Ukraine, but he received no backing from
Moscow. In January 2015, he announced a large-scale offensive aimed
at capturing the strategic port city of Mariupol. But after receiving
a phone call from Moscow, he gave a rushed press conference canceling
the operation.

According to Igor Girkin, a former commander in eastern Ukraine,
Zakharchenko had many enemies: "He could have been taken out because
of criminal schemes or maybe his Kremlin curators grew tired of him or
the Ukrainians may have done it. He was a problem for everyone."

Another analyst, Michael Bociurkiw, a global affairs analyst and
former spokesman for the Organization of Security and Co-operation in
Europe (OSCE), said: "This looks like an internal operation because
for the past few weeks and months, Zakharchenko has been critical of
some of his colleagues and deputies in the so-called DPR parliament.
So, I think the writing was on the wall for him."

In February 2015 in Minsk, Belarus, negotiators reached a ceasefire agreement.
The
negotiators were Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine's leader
Petro Poroshenko, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France's
President François Hollande.

It was noteworthy that the negotiations did not include Zakharchenko
or any east Ukraine Russian leader, whereas Putin's presence made it
clear that he was in charge of the Russians in east Ukraine.

The so-called "Minsk Agreement" did not bring about a ceasefire.
Since then, there has low-level violence almost every day, and people
are being killed almost every day. Analysts are expressing concern
that the assassination of Zakharchenko will destablize the region, and
be the final end of the Minsk agreement. Al Jazeera and RFE/RL and Washington Examiner

Related Articles:

• Russia's actions in Sea of Azov raise fears of another invasion of Ukraine (07-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Russians ignore Ukraine 'ceasefire' as 5,000 Ukrainian troops are trapped (18-Feb-2015)
  
  
• Dutch report confirms that Russian missile shot down airliner over Ukraine (14-Oct-2015)
  
  
• BBC reporters attacked by Russian thugs after finding evidence of new Ukraine invasion (19-Sep-2014)
  
  
• Russia's sophisticated disinformation campaign over Ukraine (15-Aug-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Donetsk,
Alexander Zakharchenko, Donetsk People's Republic, DPR,
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, Buk 9M38 missile, Crimea,
Igor Girkin, Michael Bociurkiw,
Organization of Security and Co-operation in Europe, OSCE,
Minsk agreement

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Sep-18 World View -- Worldwide alarm as the US ends aid to UNRWA Palestinian refugee agency

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Worldwide alarm as the US ends aid to UNRWA Palestinian refugee agency
  
• UNRWA's support for exponentially growing Palestinian population is unsustainable
  
• US military cancels $300 million in aid to Pakistan
  

****
**** Worldwide alarm as the US ends aid to UNRWA Palestinian refugee agency
****


From 2011: Latakia Palestinian refugee camp being bombed and destroyed by Bashar al-Assad. Since 2011, Shia/Alawite al-Assad has been committing genocide against Sunni Arabs, including Palestinians (AFP)

International governments are expressing alarm that the decision to
end all US aid to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)
could destabilize the Mideast and create increased radicalism.

UNRWA provides services to Palestinian Arabs living in Jordan,
Lebanon, Syria, Gaza and the West Bank. There are 1.5 million
registered Palestinians living in 58 recognized Palestinian refugee
camps. An additional 3-4 million Palestinian refugees and descendants
live in "unofficial camps where Palestine refugees are concentrated,
such as Yarmouk, near Damascus," according to UNWRA.

UNRWA's services include education, health care, relief and social
services, camp infrastructure and improvement, microfinance and
emergency assistance, and support in times of armed conflict. UNRWA
provides these services to all Palestinian refugees and their
descendants.

UNRWA is dependent on funding from UN Member nations, with the United
States having been the biggest donor. In 2017, the US provided $364
million to the agency, with other member states donated $650 million.
The US on Friday announced that it would cut all aid, giving as
a reason that UNRWA programs are "irredeemably flawed."

UNRWA spokesman Chris Gunness expressed "deep regret and
disappointment" at the U.S. decision:

<QUOTE>"We reject in the strongest possible terms the
criticism that UNRWA's schools, health centers, and emergency
assistance programs are 'irredeemably flawed.'

It is the failure of the political parties to resolve the refugee
situation which perpetuates the continued existence of
UNRWA.<END QUOTE>

A spokesman for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas denounced the
decision as "a flagrant assault against the Palestinian people and a
defiance of UN resolutions." He added, "Such a punishment will not
succeed to change the fact that the United States no longer has a role
in the region and that it is not a part of the solution."

PA Foreign Minister Riad al-Malki said that the US decision would
backfire and draw strong reactions from several countries that oppose
the “American policy of thuggery.” He said that the Palestinians,
together with Jordan and EU countries, will launch a diplomatic
campaign to urge many countries to fund UNRWA.

In fact, the German government on Friday said that it
will significantly increase its support for UNRWA, although
it would not be enough to make up the agency's current
shortfall of $217 million.

Germany's Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said:

<QUOTE>"It is therefore all the more important that we, as
the European Union, jointly undertake further efforts. ... The
loss of this organization could unleash an uncontrollable chain
reaction."<END QUOTE>

Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat said that the US decision
violates international law and the UN resolution that established
UNRWA. He added:

<QUOTE>"[The US is] not entitled to support or bless the
theft of Palestinian lands and illegal Israeli colonialism. It has
no right to act at the whim of [American business magnate,
investor and philanthropist] [Sheldon Adelson and [Prime
Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu. ...

The US decisions regarding Jerusalem, the settlements and the
refugees destroy the international law and undermine security and
stability in the region. They are a gift to the forces of
extremism and terrorism in the region."<END QUOTE>

Other Palestinian officials made several angry accusations directed at
the Trump administration:

• that Trump wants to collapse UNRWA and end it completely.
  
• that Trump wants to remove any possibility of "right of return" of
  Palestinian refugees.
  
• that Trump wants to blackmail the Palestinians into accepting is
  (soon to be announced) peace plan for the Mideast.

So as it turns out, these three accusations are pretty much true.
UNRWA and
Deutsche Welle and Haaretz and Jerusalem Post

****
**** UNRWA's support for exponentially growing Palestinian population is unsustainable
****

On Friday, the US State Department issued this statement:

<QUOTE>"The Administration has carefully reviewed the issue
and determined that the United States will not make additional
contributions to UNRWA. When we made a U.S. contribution of $60
million in January, we made it clear that the United States was no
longer willing to shoulder the very disproportionate share of the
burden of UNRWA’s costs that we had assumed for many
years. Several countries, including Jordan, Egypt, Sweden, Qatar,
and the UAE have shown leadership in addressing this problem, but
the overall international response has not been sufficient.

Beyond the budget gap itself and failure to mobilize adequate and
appropriate burden sharing, the fundamental business model and
fiscal practices that have marked UNRWA for years – tied to
UNRWA’s endlessly and exponentially expanding community of
entitled beneficiaries – is simply unsustainable and has been in
crisis mode for many years. The United States will no longer
commit further funding to this irredeemably flawed operation. We
are very mindful of and deeply concerned regarding the impact upon
innocent Palestinians, especially school children, of the failure
of UNRWA and key members of the regional and international donor
community to reform and reset the UNRWA way of doing
business. These children are part of the future of the Middle
East. Palestinians, wherever they live, deserve better than an
endlessly crisis-driven service provision model. They deserve to
be able to plan for the future.

Accordingly, the United States will intensify dialogue with the
United Nations, host governments, and international stakeholders
about new models and new approaches, which may include direct
bilateral assistance from the United States and other partners,
that can provide today’s Palestinian children with a more durable
and dependable path towards a brighter tomorrow."<END QUOTE>

The reference to "UNRWA’s endlessly and exponentially expanding
community of entitled beneficiaries" refers to the fact that
UNRWA is providing services to all descendants of the original
1948 refugees. UNRWA was set up to provide services to about
750,000 refugees of the bloody war between Jews and Arabs that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of
the state of Israel. These refugees were moved into camps in
Lebanon, Jordan and Syria.

It was thought at the time that these refugees would move out of these
camps and become citizens of the various countries in the region.
Instead, UNRWA's services have made it possible for the refugees to
stay in the camps, and for their children and grandchildren to stay
there as well. And so there's an exponentially growing population of
descendants of the original refugees, and the entire population now
totals 5.1 million, and is continuing to grow exponentially. The
means that the amount of aid that's required is also growing
exponentially at the same rate. The State Department announcement
says that this "business model," which depends on exponentially
growing donations, is unsustainable, and that's true.

For the same reason, the "right of return" is delusional. When
UNRWA was first formed, providing services to 750,000 refugees,
perhaps it might have been possible for Israel to absorb
a signficant number of them. But now the number of "refugees"
is at 5.1 million, and is growing exponentially, and it's not
reasonable to expect Israel to absorb the exponentially growing
population.

Early in August, leaked January e-mail messages emerged from Jared
Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and senior adviser, indicating that the
Trump administration does indeed want to do away with UNRWA.
According to published excerpts:

<QUOTE>"It is important to have an honest and sincere effort
to disrupt UNRWA. ... This [agency] perpetuates a status quo, is
corrupt, inefficient and doesn’t help peace."<END QUOTE>

The logic behind this statement is that the existence of UNRWA, which
is dependent on exponentially growing donations to service an
exponentially growing population of refugee descendants, is giving
this population a false hope that they might one day leave their
refugee camp and go home again to their grandparents' houses in
Israel. This is obviously never going to happen, and so the best way
to get to a new peace agreement is to begin by removing the agency
that makes a peace agreement impossible.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that there is
an approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, pitting the "axis" of
China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries against the "allies,"
the US, India, Russia and Iran. Part of it will be a major new war
between Jews and Arabs, re-fighting the bloody the war of 1948-49 that
followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state
of Israel. The war between Jews and Arabs will be part of a major
regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and
various ethnic groups against each other. The Trump administration is
generally aware of all this, having been educated by Steve Bannon,
whom I worked with off and on for many years.

Trump believes that he can get a peace deal in the Mideast. Every
president for decades has tried to do the same, with no success.
Trump's approach is to create political chaos, to destroy the
status quo, so it will be necessary to renegotiate everything
to bring peace. That's why the US Embassy was moved to Jerusalem and
why now aid to UNRWA is ending. This is the approach he's taken with
China, North Korea, Afghanistan, and elsewhere. As I've said many
times, I'm not going to criticize Trump for taking steps to prevent a
world war -- or a Mideast war -- even if preventing such a war is
impossible. US State Dept. and Al Jazeera and Fox News and Jerusalem Post

Related Articles:

• Israel prepares for war on two fronts, Gaza and Syria (15-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Israel will close crossing point to Gaza in retaliation for incendiary kites (10-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - for now (01-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Thousands of Syrians flee into Jordan to escape bombing in Daraa (22-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks (04-May-2017)
  

****
**** US military cancels $300 million in aid to Pakistan
****

The U.S. military said it has made a final decision to cancel $300
million in aid to Pakistan that had been suspended over Islamabad's
perceived failure to take decisive action against militants. In the
past, Trump has accused Pakistan of rewarding past assistance with
"nothing but lies and deceit." Reuters

Related Articles:

• Pakistan faces imminent financial crisis threatening China's CPEC (07-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Pakistan's anti-American 'hope and change' candidate Imran Khan runs again (30-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Pakistan's Imran Khan blockades supplies to Nato in Afghanistan (26-Nov-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, United Nations Relief and Works Agency, UNRWA,
Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, West Bank, Chris Gunness,
Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, Riad al-Malki,
Heiko Maas, Saeb Erekat, Jared Kushner

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

Another Irrational potshot you've taken against Assad, slandering him as some kind of psychopath who looks for innocent populations to slaughter and genocide against. When in reality it was the rebels who started the war in Syria.

[John J. Xenakis]

(09-02-2018, 04:29 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Another Irrational potshot you've taken against Assad, slandering
> him as some kind of psychopath who looks for innocent populations
> to slaughter and genocide against. When in reality it was the
> rebels who started the war in Syria.

Well, you are consistent. Your love of al-Assad is exceeded only
by your love of Hitler.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-Sep-18 World View -- Libya declares state of emergency, closes Tripoli airport

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Libya declares state of emergency, closes Tripoli airport
  
• The deterioration of Libya since the 2011 'Arab Spring'
  

****
**** Libya declares state of emergency, closes Tripoli airport
****


Tripoli, Libya (Libyan Express)

Libya's government in Tripoli, the country's capital city, announced a
state of emergency in Tripoli and closed the Mitaga airport, the
only remaining airport in operation in Libya, since the Tripoli
International Airport was destroyed by militia warfare in 2014.

The announcement follows several days of fierce fighting between
various militias and armed groups from within and around Tripoli.
Rockets appear to be falling at random into densely populated areas,
fired by one or more of the militias. At least 39 people, including
civilians, have been killed in the violence and nearly 100 others
wounded.

Libya today has two completely separate governments. The western
government, based in Tripoli, is the Government of National Accord
(GNA), which is internationally recognized by the United Nations.
However, the real power in Tripoli lies with the warlords and militias
inside and outside the city.

The second government is the eastern government, based in Tobruk, is
the House of Representatives, led by a renegade General Khalifa
Haftar.

The Libyan state in Tripoli has been almost totally "captured" by a
cartel of militias in central Tripoli, the main ones being the Tripoli
Revolutionaries' Brigades and the Nawasi Battalion. They use violence,
fraud and embezzlement to control state institutions, banks,
businesses, and the only functioning airport. A major source of
funding has been kidnapping victims from wealthy families, who provide
substantial rewards to free the victims.

The militias inside and outside Tripoli also formed an "alternative
economy" -- receive payment from Italy
in return for preventing migrants from crossing the
Mediterranean to Italy by locking them up in horrific refugee camps.

Because of the excessive violence and corruption, the cartel
controlling central Tripoli has angered many of the tribes on the
outskirts of Tripoli. The battles last week were the Seventh Brigade,
or Kaniyat, from Tarhouna, a town 40 miles southeast of Tripoli.

There are also al-Qaeda militias in Misrata, a city 125 miles east of
Tripoli, who are threatening to attack central Tripoli as well. But
they've lately been occupied with fighting ISIS-linked militias in
Sirte, which is east of Misrata.

Finally, renegade General Haftar has been staying out of Tripoli, but
it's thought that he's making plans to conduct his own attack.
Libyan Express and Al Jazeera and Reuters and Times of Malta

****
**** The deterioration of Libya since the 2011 'Arab Spring'
****

The "Arab Spring" in 2011 was triggered by the death of a Tunisian
food vendor, followed by massive protests and gun battles in Tunisia,
forcing the president to flee the country. There were violent
protests in Egypt, and there were anti-government demonstrations in
Yemen. There were fears that instability would continue to spread.
Lebanon's government collapsed.

A major refugee crisis had already began in Tunisia and Libya, with
hundreds of thousands of people pouring into neighboring countries,
and thousands crossing the Mediterranean to Italy. Libya's dictator
Muammar Gaddafi declared war on the protesters and was threatening
genocide, especially in Benghazi. It was this refugee crisis that
caused Libyans to demand a no-fly zone, and for the Arab League to do
the same, after which the UN Security Council passed a resolution
authorizing a no-fly zone. As fighting continued, this turned into
the 2011 military intervention, and the assassination of Gaddafi.
( "5-Mar-16 World View -- A look back at Libya in 2011 as the West debates another military intervention"
)

Gaddafi came to power in Libya in 1969 in a generational Awakening
era. As we've described in Syria, Cambodia, Burundi and a number of
other countries in the decades following a generational crisis civil
war, Gaddafi kept an iron grip on power by committing human rights
abuses, including arbitrary arrests, torture, extrajudicial executions
and revenge attacks. However, even with these methods, he lost
control of the population in a new civil war triggered by the Arab
Spring, and was threatening the deaths of hundreds of thousands of
people in Benghazi.

Since the fall of Gaddafi, the deterioration of Libya's government
that was originally triggered by the Arab Spring has continued.
According to a June analysis by the Small Arms Survey:

<QUOTE>"Since state institutions split in two in mid-2014,
the armed groups in Tripoli have undergone far-reaching changes in
their financing patterns. Protection rackets and large-scale
fraud, which are both contributing to a deepening economic crisis,
have replaced state salaries as their principal source of income.

Over the past two years, the large Tripolitanian militias have
transformed into criminal networks straddling politics, big
business, and the administration. They have infiltrated the
bureaucracy and are increasingly able to coordinate their actions
across different state institutions. The government is powerless
in the face of militia influence.

For the average citizen, security in Tripoli has improved
substantially, as clashes between rival forces have receded and
the cartel has focused on controlling the administration and the
economy. But this state of affairs is fuelling resentment among
powerful forces in the capital and beyond. It could provoke a new
war over the capital."<END QUOTE>

That analysis was published in June, and it predicted that the Tripoli
cartel would provoke sufficient anger that it could lead to a new war
in Tripoli. The first signs of that have begun to appear in the last
week. Small Arms Survey and Libyan Express and BBC

Related Articles:

• European-African summit calls for end to slavery auctions in Libya (01-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Italy's deals with Libya's warlords substantially reduce flow of refugees (19-Oct-2017)
  
  
• A look back at Libya in 2011 as the West debates another military intervention (05-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Massive refugee crisis in Libya increases international calls for intervention (02-Mar-2011)
  
  
• Bizarre monkey attack triggers tribal war in Jabha in southern Libya (21-Nov-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Tripoli, Mitaga airport,
Government of National Accord, GNA,
Khalifa Haftar, Tobruk, House of Representatives,
Tripoli Revolutionaries' Brigades, Nawasi Battalion,
Seventh Brigade, Kaniyat, Tarhouna, Misrata, Sirte,
Arab Spring, Tunisia, Egypt, Arab League,
Muammar Gaddafi, Benghazi

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 4-Sep-18 World View -- China courts African nations as charges of 'neo-colonialism' grow

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China courts African nations as charges of 'neo-colonialism' grow
  
• Is Kenya the next Sri Lanka?
  
• Why China's mothers are refusing to have a second child
  

****
**** China courts African nations as charges of 'neo-colonialism' grow
****


Chinese President Xi Jinping makes a toast at the beginning of the welcoming banquet at the Great Hall of the People during the first day of the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, China, May 14, 2017 (Reuters)

China's president Xi Jinping is hosting, on Monday and Tuesday, the
Forum of China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), attended by leaders of more
than 50 African countries. At the meeting, he announced that China
will offer a huge $60 billion in aid for African nations, mostly to
develop infrastructure projects for China's Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI).

Xi was eager to refute the growing concerns that China's BRI
investments are a form of "neo-colonialism," using the aid money as a
"debt trap" as leverage to exert control over the internal affairs of
the countries involved and, when the debt money can't be paid back, to
gain control of valuable assets, as has already happened when Sri
Lanka was unable to repay its debt for the building of the valuable
strategic Hambantota seaport.

So Xi may a point of saying the following:

<QUOTE>"China’s investment in Africa comes with no political
strings attached. China does not interfere in Africa’s internal
affairs and does not impose its own will on Africa."<END QUOTE>

The claim was laughable, as proven by this very conference. Every
African nation but one was invited. The one that was excluded was
Swaziland, which just happens to be the only African nation left that
has diplomatic relations with Taiwan rather than China.

China refuses to have diplomatic relations with any country that has
diplomatic relations with Taiwan. China has been using every tool
available to it, including bribes, threats and extortion, to force
countries to end relations with Taiwan. The most recent success was
Burkino Faso. But Swaziland, recently renamed eSwatini, is the last
remaining holdout in Africa. According to government spokesman Percy
Simelane:

<QUOTE>"The people of eSwatini have been benefiting from the
cordial relations existing between Taiwan since independence 50
years ago. The nation is benefiting and by extension as expected
the leader benefits.

Taiwanese doctors continue to be pillars of our health system. To
say it is the king alone who benefits is a projection of political
bankruptcy on the part of the accuser.

Everywhere in the world, culture is the soul of a nation, only a
political imbecile would put a regional meeting above the soul of
the nation."<END QUOTE>

According to one senior Chinese diplomat recently, China has been
upping the pressure on the country, and they expect the eSwaziland to
change policies soon.

So Xi's claim that aid comes "with no political strings attached," and
"China does not interfere in Africa’s internal affairs and does not
impose its own will on Africa" is really an insult to everyone's
intelligence. AP and AFP and Reuters


****
**** Is Kenya the next Sri Lanka?
****

Xi Jinping also sought to reassure African leaders that he is not
leading them into a "debt trap," where the objective of China's policy
is to put a country into a position where it's forced to give up
valuable asset in lieu of paying off its debt to China.

Many Kenyans in particular are concerned that they are going to be
forced to give up the Mombasa seaport, just as Sri Lanka was forced to
give up the Hambantota seaport. And indeed, I doubt that few people
would be surprised if that were China's actual unstated policy. As I
described last month in "14-Jul-18 World View -- China's railway contractor in Kenya accused of 'neo-colonialism, racism and blatant discrimination'"
, China's infrastructure projects are set up
contractually to make this kind of default as likely as possible.

Chinese officials have been bragging that China is charging low
interest rates on its latest loans, but interest rates are actually a
small part of the problem.

Researcher Anne Stevenson-Yang describes the problem succinctly as
follows: China's loans are quoted in dollar terms, "but in reality
they're lending in terms of tractors, shipments of coal, engineering
services and things like that, and they ask for repayment in hard
currency."

This one-sentence description is highly significant, as becomes
apparent with the lengthier explanation I've given in the past:

• China loans a country tens of billions of dollars for
  infrastructure development.
  
  
• The country will have to repay that plus interest; failure to make
  payments means that China takes control of the infrastructure project,
  such as a seaport, and the entire surrounding area.
  
  
• Local workers are given few jobs. Instead, a flood of Chinese
  workers come to the region to do all the work. Their salaries are
  paid out of the loan money, which the workers often send back to
  China. So the loan money flows back to China, rather than flowing
  into local consumption and business. Since the loan money flows back
  to China, and benefits consumption and businesses there, and then the
  country has to repay the loan anyway, the country is really paying the
  loan twice, which is 100% interest.
  
  
• In the same way, all parts, equipment and services for the
  infrastructure project are purchased from China, and paid for out of
  the loan money. Once again, the loan money flows back to China for
  parts, equipment and services, and then the loan has to be repaid, so
  the country is paying the loan twice.
  
  
• China establishes a large community of Chinese workers and
  families around the infrastructure project. As we've described in the past,
  these Chinese
  workers and families are controlled by Beijing's international
  coercive propaganda agency, the "United Front Work Department" (UFWD).
  They will be around for decades, because they have to do the
  maintenance after the project is completed. These workers are
  considered by the Chinese to be "magic weapons" that they can use to
  influence country policies, such as relations with Taiwan.

According to one analyst:

<QUOTE>"This debt acquired from China comes with huge
business for Chinese companies, particularly construction
companies that have turned the whole of Africa into a construction
site for rails, roads, electricity dams, stadia, commercial
buildings and so on."<END QUOTE>

So China provides aid for its own companies and workers to build
infrastructure projects, but since the countries have to pay for the
loans twice, the countries pay substantially more for the
infrastructure projects themselves. So why don't they do that?
Because they can't afford it, just as they can't afford to pay back
China's loans.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Chad, Eritrea,
Mozambique, Congo Republic, South Sudan and Zimbabwe were considered
to be in debt distress at the end of 2017 while Zambia and Ethiopia
were downgraded to "high risk of debt distress."

When America loans money to a country, either directly or through the
IMF, it's a small enough amount that one can be certain that it can be
repaid. One thing that's clear from China's policies is that they're
making loans without any guarantee that they will be repaid and, in
fact, where it's all but certain that they WON'T be repaid. It
appears to be China's policy to make loans that can't be repaid, and
then take control of infrastructure and land in the target country.
That's why China has control, or will soon have control, of seaports
across the Indian Ocean, in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Djibouti and Kenya.
BBC and
The Nation (Kenya) and Standard Media (Kenya) and Sputnik News (Moscow)

Related Articles

• China's railway contractor in Kenya accused of 'neo-colonialism, racism and blatant discrimination' (14-Jul-2018)
  
  
• China mocks America's 'Indo-Pacific' strategy at ASEAN meeting (05-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Australia passes foreign influence laws, targeting China (29-Jun-2018)
  
  
• China takes control of strategic Hambantota seaport in Sri Lanka, raising concerns in India (11-Dec-2017)
  
  
• China establishes its first foreign military base, in Djibouti (13-Jul-2017)
  

****
**** Why China's mothers are refusing to have a second child
****

Last week, I wrote "29-Aug-18 World View -- China ends two-child policy, but considers a 'wacky' three-child policy"
, about why mothers weren't having a second
child, even when the one-child policy ended. It seems that there are
a lot of reasons why China's mothers don't want more than one child,
according to a web site reader who sent me the following:

My Chinese wife was an elementary school teacher in Xi'an, China. She
says that the biggest reasons why the two-child policy would fail were
mostly economic. Consider the following:

• Children have to be taken care of when they are born. If the
  couple does not have relatives nearby when the child is born, then one
  must leave the workforce. While that is on the face of things the same
  as in the States, it can be far deeper in China, since the
  "baby-sitter" is responsible for the academic success or failure of
  the children. (My Chinese relatives have both positive and negative
  examples in their families.)
  
  
• Contrary to "official belief" by most everybody outside of China,
  Chinese education is *not* free. (By law, it is *supposed to be
  free.*) The biggest reasons are that all the schools in a city are
  ranked in quality. Every parent wants their kids to get into the best
  quality schools, so as to improve their educational chances later
  on. It has not been uncommon within Xi'an for parents to pay a bribe
  to get their kids into a better school in excess of $8,000. That
  starts first with kindergarten, then for first grade, then again for
  junior high, and again for senior high.
  
  
• Many teachers would teach sub-standard classes in the school, and
  then tell the parents that if they wanted their children to get better
  chances later on, they would have to attend the teachers' own private
  lessons after school, which were never free.
  
  
• Most of the kids in the cities will attend private classes after
  school in other schools to get an edge over the competition for the
  limited seats in the best schools.
  
  
• Students who don't pass the zhongkao don't get into senior high
  school. They get only one more chance to try the exam a year later if
  they fail the first time. At this point, schools are very reluctant to
  allow students into senior high schools through bribes because of Xi's
  anti-corruption drive.
  
  
• Then the students have to pass the gaokao or else they don't get
  into college. More private school expenses. Students may have one or
  two more chances to pass the gaokao, but most do not; they have been
  socially placed for life.
  
  
• Once students graduate from a university, they then have to pass
  school-specific entrance exams to get into graduate school. And even
  more bribes and private school expenses.
  
  
• The parents are responsible for getting their kids their first
  jobs, based on guanxi. Obtaining that guanxi can be quite expensive
  and take many years. My wife spent a LOT of time and money to get her
  son his first job after he graduated from the university with a degree
  in civil engineering.
  
  
• Many college-graduate girls will not marry young guys if they
  don't already have a house and a car. Since both of those are horribly
  expensive in the city, they have to depend upon their parents to
  provide the funds and/or credit.

In short, even one child is too expensive for a couple in China.

Then comes the fact that now, a married couple also has to support
*two* sets of parents. My wife has four sisters and a brother, so they
have no problems taking care of her parents. But her son, and her
nieces and nephews, will have to support *two* sets of parents because
of the one-child policy in place for their generation. Add to that the
costs of bribing their children through the education system, and you
have a completely broken economic system at the family level.

That is why an increasingly large number of Chinese children are
delaying marriage, and often forsaking the entire concept.



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Xi Jinping, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
Forum of China-Africa Cooperation, FOCAC,
Swaziland, eSwatini, Percy Simelane, Burkino Faso, Taiwan,
Sri Lanka, Hambantota seaport, Kenya, Mombasa seaport,
Anne Stevenson-Yang, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
Chad, Eritrea, Mozambique, Congo Republic, South Sudan,
Zimbabwe, Djibouti, Pakistan

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 5-Sep-18 World View -- Syria and Russia prepare to inflict massive bloodbath on Idlib

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria and Russian forces prepare to 'clean out' the 'terrorists' in Idlib
  
• Syria and Russia prepare to inflict massive bloodbath on Idlib
  

****
**** Syria and Russian forces prepare to 'clean out' the 'terrorists' in Idlib
****


Syrian firefighters try putting out a fire in a building that was hit by Russian air strikes in Idlib, on Tuesday (AFP)

Ever since Syria's army took control of Daraa in southern Syria,
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and Russia's president Vladimir
Putin have been declaring the war almost over and won. ( "22-Jul-18 World View -- Bashar al-Assad declares victory in southern Syria as opponents are bused out"
)

There's just one more quick battle to be fought, they've been
suggesting, the battle to take control of Idlib province.

Airstrikes by Russian warplanes struck targets in Idlib on Tuesday,
after a lull of several weeks, although Syrian warplane airstrikes had
been ongoing. According to reports, the warplanes bombarded the
countryside around Jisr al-Shughour on the western edge of Idlib,
killing 13 civilians but no fighters.

Syria was losing the war in 2016, but Russia saved al-Assad by
actively joining the fight. Russia's military had been completely
shut out of the Mideast after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the
1990s. But now, for the first time in decades, Russia has two
military bases in the Mideast -- the Tartus naval base, and the
Hmeimim airbase, both of them in Syria, in return for supporting
al-Assad.

In the last month, Russia has launched a large naval deployment in the
Mediterranean Sea, off the coast of Syria. The naval force has more
than a dozen vessels including destroyers, frigates and submarines,
some armed with Kalibr cruise missiles. It's expected that the naval
force will participate in the assault on Idlib, and remain at the
Tartus naval port indefinitely.

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday:

<QUOTE>"It goes without saying that this problem (terrorists
in Idlib) must be straightened out. We do know that the Syrian
armed forces are getting ready for tackling this
problem."<END QUOTE>

Iran's forces have also supported al-Assad in the war. Iran's foreign
minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Monday that all the "terrorists"
in Idlib must be "cleaned out":

<QUOTE>"All of Syrian territory must be preserved and all the
sects and groups should start the round of reconstruction as one
collective and the displaced should return to their families.

And the remaining terrorists in the remaining parts of Idlib must
be cleaned out and the region should be placed back under the
control of the Syrian people."<END QUOTE>

Al-Assad has made it clear that he considers the entire population of
Idlib to be "terrorists." Moscow Times and Tass (Moscow) and National Interest and Daily Sabah (Ankara)

****
**** Syria and Russia prepare to inflict massive bloodbath on Idlib
****

With Syrian army forces massing on the border with Syria, a full-scale
assault is expected to start at any time.

There are 3.5 million people in Idlib. About half of them arrived
there after fleeing from the violence in earlier battles in Aleppo,
Ghouta and Daraa. There are probably around several tens of thousands
of "rebels," including some belonging to al-Qaeda based Hayat Tahrir
al-Sham (HTS), and others belonging to ISIS.

In Aleppo, Ghouta and Daraa, al-Assad has been using Vladimir Putin's
"Grozny strategy," where warplanes attack hospitals, schools and
markets with the objective of creating millions of refugees, who can
then be attacked while they're out in the open. A refinement
developed by al-Assad's forces is to drop barrel bombs filled with
metals, explosives, and chlorine gas. The metals would kill as many
people as possible, and the chlorine gas, which is heavier than air,
would fall into basements and bunkers where women and children were
hiding. Once they were forced out into the open, additional barrel
bombs and missiles or Sarin gas could kill the women and children
en masse.

In the case of earlier targets, international pressure caused Russia
and Syria to agree to allow many people to flee the violence, and take
refuge in Idlib. But there is no Idlib for Idlib, which means that
there is no place in Idlib for people to go to flee. So there are 3.5
million people, including about one million children, all trapped in
Idlib.

Russia and Syria claim that they're only going to be targeting
"terrorists" in Idlib, but al-Assad considers everyone in Idlib to be
a terroris, and so many people are expecting a massive bloodbath.
Possibly over a million people will try to cross the border into
Turkey, a country that already hosts about three million refugees from
Syria. That may result in a new surge of refugees into Europe.

A big unknown is what role Turkey's military will play.

Idlib is supposed to be one of the four de-escalation ceasefire zones,
set up by agreement of Russia, Turkey and Iran in meetings in Astana,
Kazakhstan last year. However, the de-escalation process turned out
to be a hoax, to provide cover for al-Assad's attacks.

Turkey is the one of the de-escalation zones that Turkey is
responsible for. Turkey has a string of observation posts around
Idlib, and has been fortifying them with tanks and personnel in recent
days. It's not known whether Turkey would take any military action to
block Syria's ground forces.

The United State has warned Syria that there will be a military
reprisal if al-Assad uses chemical weapons in Idlib. According to
reports, US intelligence and military targeting experts have created a
list of Syrian chemical weapons facilities that could be struck if
Trump decided to order a new round of airstrikes in the country.
BBC
and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and CNN and Jerusalem Post


Related Articles

• Bashar al-Assad declares victory in southern Syria as opponents are bused out (22-Jul-2018)
  
  
• US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Syria, Russia, Iran conduct full-on mass extermination of civilians in Eastern Ghouta (23-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria (22-Jan-2014)
  
  
• Russia demands that US and EU pay to rebuild Syria (23-Aug-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Dmitry Peskov, Mohammad Javad Zarif,

Russia, Vladimir Putin, Grozny strategy,
Turkey, Idlib province, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Iran, Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Grozny strategy,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
chlorine gas, Sarin gas

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 6-Sep-18 World View -- Latin American countries open their borders to migrants from Socialist Venezuela

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Latin American countries open their borders to migrants from Socialist Venezuela
  
• Venezuela's Socialist president Maduro refuses humanitarian aid
  

****
**** Latin American countries open their borders to migrants from Socialist Venezuela
****


Latin American countries meeting in Quito on Tuesday (AFP)

As the flood of 2.3 million refugees have fled Socialist Venezuela,
with no end in sight, much of central and south America is becoming
destabilized, and neighboring countries are looking for ways to
mitigate the disaster.

Migration officials representing eleven Latin American and Caribbean
countries, attending a two-day meeting in Quito, Ecuador, have signed
a joint declaration to make it much easier for refugees fleeing from
Venezuela to enter their countries.

Last month, Ecuador began refusing entry to Venezuelas who didn't have
valid passports, after receiving a stream of 4,000 new migrants every
day. However, that decision was later overturned by a court because
it contravened a regional agreement on free travel.

The decision to require a valid passport would have shut out the vast
majority of Venezuelan refugees, since getting a valid passport in
Venezuela can cost from $1,000 to $5,000 in bribes demanded by
Venezuelan government officials. Under the rules specified by the
Quito declaration, refugees will be allowed to enter the eleven
countries even if their travel documents have expired.

According to the Quito declaration:

<QUOTE>"5. Urge to the Government of the Bolivarian Republic
of Venezuela to give priority to make the necessary measures for
the timely provision of identity and travel documents of its
citizens. Providing priority to identity cards, passports, birth
certificates, marriage certificates and certificates of criminal
records, as well as apostilles and legalization of documents
required by its citizens. In view of the fact that the lack of
such documents has generated: limitations on the right to free
movement and mobility, difficulties in immigration procedures,
impediments to extra-regional circulation, effects on social and
economic integration in the host countries and, on the contrary,
it has encouraged irregular migration.

6. In accordance with the national legislation of each country, to
receive expired travel documents as identity documents of
Venezuelan citizens for immigration purposes."<END QUOTE>

The eleven countries that signed the joint declaration are: Argentina,
Brazil, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Colombia, Chile, Mexico, Panama,
Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay.

There were thirteen countries meeting in Quito, but two of them didn't
sign the declaration. Venezuela's left-wing ally Bolivia refused to
sign, while the Dominican Republic was unable to do so immediately for
administrative reasons. BBC and
Reuters and Quito Declaration (PDF)



****
**** Venezuela's Socialist president Maduro refuses humanitarian aid
****

The same group of 11 Latin American countries are urging Venezuela's
president Nicolás Maduro to "accept the cooperation of the governments
of the region and international organizations," who are expressing
a willingness to provide humanitarian aid, in order to help
alleviate the migration crisis.

According to the signed Quito Declaration:

<QUOTE>"13. They reiterate their concern about the serious
deterioration of the internal situation caused by the massive
migration of Venezuelans, addressed during this meeting, and call
for the opening of a humanitarian assistance mechanism that will
allow decompressing the critical situation, providing immediate
attention to the origin of the citizens affected.

14. The States agree to cooperate with each other to assist their
fellow citizens and urge the Government of the Bolivarian Republic
of Venezuela to accept the cooperation of the governments of the
region and international organizations, in order to address the
situation of their respective communities established in
Venezuela."<END QUOTE>

However, Maduro's close associate Diosdado Cabello, president of the
Constituent National Assembly, called the offer "disgusting" and
"shameful," suggesting that the offer of humanitarian aid is unlikely
to be accepted.

Maduro is calling the entire refugee crisis a hoax, claims that the
videos of Venezuelan's fleeing on foot are a Hollywood style campaign
designed by Americans to embarrass him. He says that most of the
refugees that have left now want to come back

<QUOTE>"More than 90 percent are regretting it, of this group
that isn’t more than 600,000 Venezuelans who have left the country
in the last two years, according to confirmed, certified serious
figures. ...

I sometimes feel pain for the Venezuelans who left. We will hug
you again, come to Venezuela, come back to the homeland. We
Venezuelans are here, with our big, big Bolivian
hearts."<END QUOTE>

Actually, the real confirmed, certified serious figures are well into
the millions.

Maduro has urged departed refugees to "stop cleaning toilets abroad"
and return home. In August, he sent a plane to Peru to pick up around
migrants who had been duped into abandoning Venezuela, but only 100
returned. More airlifts are being scheduled. Channel News Asia and Reuters and LA Times and VOA

Related articles:

• US court seizes Venezuela's Citgo, as Argentina's peso crashes (31-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Socialist Venezuela introduces new fantasy currency and new Socialist changes (19-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Socialist Cuba moves to Capitalism, while Socialist Venezuela moves to self-destruction (16-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Hugo Chávez dismantled Venezuela's businesses on purpose to create Socialist Paradise (29-May-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, Nicolás Maduro,
Quito, Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Colombia, Chile,
Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Bolivia,
Dominican Republic, Diosdado Cabello

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

Except for the absence of firing squads, this is beginning to look like Cuba in the early 1960s.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 7-Sep-18 World View -- Britain 'provokes' China by sending warship into South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Britain 'provokes' China by sending warship into South China Sea
  
• China's 'nine-dash line map' makes absurd claims to South China Sea
  

****
**** Britain 'provokes' China by sending warship into South China Sea
****


Military vehicles in the loading dock of the HMS Albion (Reuters)

Late last month, the HMS Albion, a British Royal Navy flagship
amphibious assault ship, was traveling through the South China Sea, en
route from Tokyo to Saigon (Ho Chi Minh City) in Vietnam. The 22,000
ton amphibious warship was carrying a contingent of Royal Marines.

On August 31, the ship exercised its "freedom of navigation" rights as
it passed near the Paracel Islands. The Paracel Islands have been
ruled by the courts to be in international waters, but China has used
military force to annex them, in clear violation of international law.

China immediately launched a military challenge of the British ship by
dispatching a frigate and two helicopters. However, both sides
remained calm during the encounter.

In 2016, China claimed "ironclad proof" of the sovereignty of the
Paracel Islands. The proof consisted of a 600 year old handwritten
book by fisherman Su Chengfen, who uses the book as a guide to the
various routes between the islands.

The BBC decided to investigate, and tracked down the fisherman.
As I reported at the time,

the BBC found that the book did not exist, and China's claim
to the Paracel Islands is a hoax.

This didn't stop China's foreign ministry spokesman on Thursday from
saying, "The relevant behavior of the British warship violated Chinese
law and relevant international law and infringed upon China's
sovereignty. China is firmly opposed to this."

This is a lie on several levels. The Chinese think that their
laws are the laws of the world, and they specifically repudiate
international law when it goes against them. The invoke
international law as a kind of word game when they believe it
favors them.

In 2016, China was thoroughly humiliated when all of their activities
in the South China Sea were declared illegal by the United Nations
Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, which ruled that all of
China's activities in the South China Sea are illegal and in violation of international law.

China's response to the court ruling at the time was that it was
"completely a political farce staged under legal pretext," and it was
"plotted and manipulated by certain forces outside the region," which
could mean either the Europeans or the Americans or both. The
spokesman at the time continued, "Its purpose is clearly not to seek
proper settlement of disputes with China, but to violate China’s
territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests and put
peace and stability in the South China Sea in jeopardy."

The logic of the Chinese statement is that China's "territorial
sovereignty" over the region are a given, and any challenge puts
"peace and stability in the South China Sea in jeopardy."

That of course is a threat: Any challenge will be met with a military
response. Reuters and China Foreign Ministry (6-Sep-2018) and China Foreign Ministry (13-Jul-2016)

****
**** China's 'nine-dash line map' makes absurd claims to South China Sea
****


China's 'nine-dash line' encompasses the entire South China Sea, going as far away as Indonesia's Natuna Island, which is nowhere near China (BBC)

China's "historic" claims to the South China Sea are either hoaxes,
like the claim to the Paracel Islands described above, or worthless,
or challenged by equally valid historic claims from other countries,
including Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei, and
Indonesia.

The arbitrariness of China's claims is shown by its claim to
Indonesia's Natuna Island. In 2016, China sent its coast guard
warships to ram Indonesian vessels in the Natuna Sea.
What's going on here is that the Natuna Sea is
extremely rich in fishing grounds. The Natuna Sea is clearly
Indonesia's territory, since it's very far from China, but
that makes no difference to China. It's amazing in the 21st
century that a country feels it's perfectly OK to steal another
country's assets, and even feels entitled to them.

China's "historic claims" to the South China Sea really
go no farther back than to 1947. According to one
historical analysis:

<QUOTE>"And finally, China’s so-called “historic claims” to
the South China Sea are actually not “centuries old.” They only go
back to 1947, when Chiang Kai-shek’s nationalist government drew
the so-called “eleven-dash line” on Chinese maps of the South
China Sea, enclosing the Spratly Islands and other chains that the
ruling Kuomintang party declared were now under Chinese
sovereignty. Chiang himself, saying he saw German fascism as a
model for China, was fascinated by the Nazi concept of an expanded
Lebensraum (“living space”) for the Chinese nation. He did not
have the opportunity to be expansionist himself because the
Japanese put him on the defensive, but cartographers of the
nationalist regime drew the U-shape of eleven dashes in an attempt
to enlarge China’s “living space” in the South China
Sea. Following the victory of the Chinese Communist Party in the
civil war in 1949, the People’s Republic of China adopted this
cartographic coup, revising Chiang’s notion into a “nine-dash
line” after erasing two dashes in the Gulf of Tonkin in
1953."<END QUOTE>

What's interesting about this analysis is the relationship of
Chiang to Hitler's "Lebensraum" concept, where Hitler felt
entitled to invade and annex larger regions of Russia for
German expansion. In other words, Chiang felt that the Chinese
were the Master Race, just as Hitler's Nazis felt they were
the Master Race, entitled to take anything they wanted.

I've written in the past that Xi Jinping is following in the footsteps
of Hitler, adopting a government similar to Hitler's National
Socialism, and feeling entitled to annex regions that have
historically belonged to other countries. ( "24-Oct-17 World View -- Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism"
)

This analysis makes it clear that this attitude is not recent, and
didn't start with Xi Jinping. Apparently the Chinese were quite
impressed with Hitler in World War II, and the 1947 map was meant to
copy Hitler.

Today, China is following exactly the same path that the Nazis
followed. Xi Jinping's "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" is
the same as Hitler's National Socialism. Like the Nazis, the Chinese
believe that they're a Master Race that will conquer the world.
They'd have to be crazy to believe that they could succeed at that,
but the Chinese are crazy. And they'll do exactly what the Nazis did
-- bring destruction and catastrophe to themselves and the entire
world. World Affairs Journal (June 2013) and CSIS (12-Jun-2015) and Diplomat (21-Jun-2016) and BBC (20-Oct-2014)

Related Articles:

• China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims revealed as hoax (22-Jun-2016)
  
  
• China's coast guard warship rams vessel in Indonesian waters (24-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism (24-Oct-2017)
  
  
• In policy shift, US sides with Indonesia in South China Sea over Natuna Sea (24-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Tensions grow with China over Indonesia's Natuna Islands (24-Oct-2014)
  
  
• China demands that Indonesia end plans to rename its own territorial waters (10-Sep-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, China, South China Sea,
HMS Albion, Japan, Vietnam, Paracel Island,
Su Chengfen, Xi Jinping, Adolf Hitler,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague,
Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Natuna Island

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 8-Sep-18 World View -- Turkey fails to prevent Russia and Iran from mass slaughter in Idlib, Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey fails to prevent Russia and Iran from mass slaughter in Idlib, Syria
  
• Turkey prepares for massive refugee problem
  
• Syria and Russia launch a big, new disinformation campaign
  
• The Greek Tragedy in Syria
  

****
**** Turkey fails to prevent Russia and Iran from mass slaughter in Idlib, Syria
****


Rouhani, Erdogan and Putin, the three amigos, hold hands prior to their meeting (Reuters)

The leaders of the three countries in the so-called "Astana Group" met
in Tehran on Friday with to decide the fate of Syria's Idlib province.
No Syrians participated in the meeting. Representatives of the three
countries, Russia, Turkey and Iran, have met several times in Astana,
the capital city of Kazakhstan.

Russia, Syria and Iran have been preparing for weeks, massing troops
and tanks, for an assault that will create a massive humanitarian
disaster among the 3.5 million civilians in Idlib. ( "5-Sep-18 World View -- Syria and Russia prepare to inflict massive bloodbath on Idlib"
)

At the summit meeting, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan argued
for a ceasefire, and no invasion at all. At the press conference
following the meeting, he said, "We don’t want Idlib to turn into a
bloodbath," and said:

<QUOTE>"Idlib is not only about the future of Syria, it is
also about the peace of the whole region. Any attack launched or
to be launched on Idlib will result in a disaster, massacre and a
very big humanitarian tragedy.

"If we can declare a cease-fire here, it will be one of the most
important steps of the summit, and it will relieve the
civilians."<END QUOTE>

Iran's president Hassan Rouhani rejected Erdogan's plea, saying that
the fighting in Syria must continue until all "terrorists" are
"uprooted," especially in Idlib. He added, "fighting terrorism in
Idlib is an unavoidable part of the mission of restoring peace and
stability to Syria."

Russia's president Vladimir Putin also rejected the plea, saying that
"the legitimate Syrian government has a right and must eventually take
control of its entire national territory". Daily Sabah (Turkey) and BBC and
Vox

****
**** Turkey prepares for massive refugee problem
****

Idlib has a population of about 3.5 million people, including several
tens of thousands of jihadists belonging to al-Qaeda linked Hayat
Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), or less than 2% of the population. Many of the
jihadists are hiding out in the same homes as the civilians. There
are reports that many civilians are demanding that the jihadists leave
the homes and go elsewhere, though that's unlikely to happen.

Bashar al-Assad intends to kill all "terrorists," but he's made it
clear in the past that he considers the entire population of Idlib to
be "terrorists," meaning that he will be targeting the entire
population.

In a sense, Turkey has the most at stake in the Astana Group decision
about Idlib. In the press conference on Friday, Erdogan said that
there are already 3.5 million Syrian refugees hosted by Turkey, and:
"Idlib's population is now 3.5 million. We do not have power and
facilities to host another 3.5 million."

Bashar al-Assad's regime, along with Russia, will be using missiles,
barrel bombs, chlorine gas and Sarin gas to kill the "terrorists" in
Idlib following Vladimir Putin's "Grozny Model." Entire neighborhoods
will be flattened, and schools, markets and hospitals will be
particularly targeted in order to kill as many women and children as
possible, as part of Bashar al-Assad's genocidal campaign.

This means that hundreds of thousands or even millions of civilians
will be abandoning their homes, trying to flee the violence. When
al-Assad was conducting a similar slaughter on Aleppo, Ghouta and
Daraa, many thousands of civilians fled to Idlib. Now, there's no
Idlib for Idlib, meaning that people who want to flee have no place to
go.

Idlib borders Turkey, and undoubtedly many of them will try to flee
across the border into Turkey. It's possible that millions of
refugees will succeed in reaching Turkey, and a few hundred thousand
of them may then travel to Europe. According to Turkey's Red
Crescent, this would be the beginning of a "new immigration wave" into
both Turkey and Europe.

One thing that's clear is that Russia and Vladimir Putin are in charge
now. Putin can delay the assault, or launch it immediately. He can
also use the threat of an assault to get leverage. For example, Putin
has been demanding that the US and EU pay billions to rebuild Syria,
after Russia played the biggest part
in destroying Syria. Russia could use the Idlib assault in a
negotiation that says, "Pay up or else!" Anadolu (Turkey) and Yeni Safak (Turkey)

****
**** Syria and Russia launch a big, new disinformation campaign
****

There have been reports that Syria and Russia have been launching a
new disinformation campaign, to hide al-Assad's use of chemical
weapons and other atrocities. My personal experience is that the
article that I wrote three days ago
generated a much higher level of troll attacks than I've been
seeing recently. So it may well be that Russia's troll factory, the
Internet Research Agency in St. Petersburg, is on the march again.

The trolls generally try to paint Bashar al-Assad as a sweet, gentle
opthamologist (his college major), a sensitive guy who now runs a
country and is trying to bring peace, justice and stability to Syria
and the world.

So for trolls and for those readers with short memories, here's an
article from last year from the London Guardian, summarizing a
report by Amnesty International:

<QUOTE>"[In Bashar al-Assad's Saydnaya prison in Damascus,]
thousands of civilians considered opponents of the regime are
systematically starved, deliberately dehumanised, mercilessly
tortured and finally hanged in the utmost secrecy in the dead of
night, 20 to 50 at a time. These witnesses have described
executions and the conditions in the prison before December 2015
but they could be continuing.

It’s like something from a grindingly bleak horror film – a
grotesque series of depraved acts that almost defies
description. ... Amnesty has gathered testimony from 31 former
Saydnaya detainees as well as former guards, and we calculate that
between 5,000 to 13,000 people have been hanged at Saydnaya since
the uprising against Assad began, possibly many more.

On top of that witnesses have described deaths through sadistic
beatings, starvation and disease. They have said that food and
water are regularly cut off for prisoners at Saydnaya. When food
is delivered, it’s often dumped in the blood, puss and dirt of the
cell floors. The prison also has its own set of “special
rules”. Prisoners are not allowed to make any sounds, speak or
even whisper, even when being brutally beaten. They’re forced to
assume certain positions when the guards come into the cells and
merely looking at the guards is punishable by death.

Here’s how one former detainee described the terrifying beatings
that those about to be hanged are made to endure: “We would hear a
huge sound. From 10pm until 12, or from 11pm until 1am, we would
hear screaming and yelling come from below us ... This is a very
important point. If you keep silent, you will get less beating at
Saydnaya. But these people were screaming like they had lost their
minds ... It wasn’t a normal sound – it was not ordinary. It
sounded like they were skinning them alive.”

As for the hangings themselves, witnesses have described how they
are carried out in the basement of a place called the White
Building. After hours of beatings, groups of up to 50 blindfolded
men at a time are taken to the execution site by white delivery
trucks (called “meat fridges” by other prisoners) and made to
stand on a metre-high platform. Here a noose is placed over their
heads and they’re bundled to their deaths.

Not all the hangings result in quick deaths. Some of the lighter
men are still alive several minutes into the hangings, and two
prison officials have the job of pulling on the bodies of those
still alive to break their necks. One former detainee, Hamid (not
his real name), told me how he could hear the sounds of the
hangings as he and other prisoners slept on the floor of the rooms
above: “There was a sound of something being pulled out – like a
piece of wood, I’m not sure – and then you would hear the sound of
them being strangled ... If you put your ears on the floor, you
could hear the sound of the gurgling. This would last around 10
minutes ... We were sleeping on top of the sound of people choking
to death. This was normal for me then.”"<END QUOTE>

Bashar al-Assad is not a sweet opthamologist. He's a perverted,
depraved, sociopathic monster who is running a country with the
intention of inflicting the same depraved, sociopathic acts on
millions of people. Guardian (London, 7-Feb-2017)

****
**** The Greek Tragedy in Syria
****

It's pretty obvious now that the massive impending Idlib disaster is
completely preordained and unavoidable, and nothing can be done by
anyone to prevent it. It's like a mile high tsunami that's headed for
land. Nothing can stop it. But for how long has it been unavoidable?
Six months? Six years? Could it have been prevented seven years ago?

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, an argument can be
made that the coming humanitarian disaster has been unavoidable since
the 1980s.

Syria's last generational crisis war was the civil war that climaxed
in 1982 with the massacre at Hama. There was a massive uprising of
the 400,000 mostly Sunni citizens of Hama against Syria's president
Hafez al-Assad, the current president's father. In February, 1982,
al-Assad turned the town to rubble, 40,000 deaths and 100,000
expelled. Hama stands as a defining moment in the Middle East. It is
regarded as perhaps the single deadliest act by any Arab government
against its own people in the modern Middle East. But once Hama was
destroyed, the anti-government movement against Hafaz al-Assad pretty
much ended. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this was
a generational crisis war climax, like the nuking of Hiroshima at the
climax of World War II, bringing the war to an end.

Since then 36 years have passed, and new generations have grown up.
I've described what happens in country after country in the decades
following a crisis ethnic civil war. Whoever comes to power after the
war uses brutal police power to suppress the opposition, using the
excuse that a new civil war must be prevented. I've described this in
DR Congo, Burundi, Cameroon, Thailand, Cambodia, Iran, and other
places.

What makes the Syria situation exceptional is the level of violence.
There are various levels of oppression that can be used, but Bashar
al-Assad is conducting full-scale genocide and ethnic cleansing. By
comparison with other countries in similar situations, that level of
violence is not necessary.

In Iran for example, since the 1979 revolution, which was really just
another civil war, the two Supreme Leaders have felt free to punish
political opponents with gunfire, torture, rapes, jailings, and other
atrocities.

The two Supreme Leaders, Ruhollah Khomeini and Seyed Ali Hosseini
Khamenei, are psychotic monsters, but those punishments just described
-- torture, rape, etc. -- have only been used against tens of
thousands of people, mostly young college students. There's been no
attempt to exterminate entire cities. Of course tens of thousands is
a horrific number, but I say "only" in comparison to Bashar al-Assad.
Al-Assad has perpetrated the same genocidal atrocities, but has gone
much farther with barrel bombs and chemical weapons targeting millions
of women and children, something that Khomeini and Khamenei did not
do.

Particularly after those 50,000 prison photos came out of years of
gruesome, depraved, systematic torture of political opponents on an
"industrial scale," I see Bashar al-Assad as a sociopathic monster, as
I've described him many times.

So, given what happened in Hama in 1982, followed by the sociopathic
nature of Bashar al-Assad, sooner or later there would have been
anti-government protests, and al-Assad would have launched his
genocidal attacks on peaceful protesters, focusing on women and
children to exterminate the next generation. This is something that
was triggered by the "Arab Spring" in 2011, but it had to happen
sooner or later, and it would have led the same way to the same kind
of genocide that al-Assad has been performing for the last eight
years.

So that's why, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it
could be argued that the Idlib massacre was preordained since the
1980s. It could have been stopped at any time in the last 30 years if
al-Assad had been removed from power at any time, and replaced with
someone less sociopathic. Even then, there would have been some
violence, as in the case of Iran, but probably not to the extent
pursued by al-Assad.

The Greeks invented tragedy, and as a Greek, I understand tragedy very
well. It's in my bones. Tragedy is not some random event, like a
child being hit by a car. The essence of Greek tragedy is that the
tragic event is not random. The tragic event is inevitable: it MUST
occur, and the reason it must occur is because of the nature, the
personality, the character of the protagonists. A true tragedy cannot
be prevented, even by those who foresee it, because the forces
bringing about the tragedy are too powerful for anyone to stop.
That's what's happening in Syria today.

Related Articles

• Syria and Russia prepare to inflict massive bloodbath on Idlib (05-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Russia demands that US and EU pay to rebuild Syria (23-Aug-2018)
  
  
• US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Syria, Russia, Iran conduct full-on mass extermination of civilians in Eastern Ghouta (23-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Western leaders sickened by Assad's 'industrial strength' torture in Syria (22-Jan-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Grozny strategy,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iran, Hassan Rouhani,
Turkey, Idlib province, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Iran, Aleppo, Ghouta, Daraa, Saydnaya prison,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, chlorine gas, Sarin gas

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-Sep-18 World View -- Riots in Iraq's Basra evoke fault lines of 1980s Iran-Iraq war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Dozens killed in five days of riots in southern Iraq's Basra
  
• Riots in Iraq's Basra evoke fault lines of 1980s Iran-Iraq war
  

****
**** Dozens killed in five days of riots in southern Iraq's Basra
****


Protesters trample a portrait of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during the storming and burning of the Iranian consulate in Basra on Friday (AP)

Riots have continued for five days in Basra, Iraq's second largest
city, in southern Iraq. Protesters have attacked or set fire to
nearly every government building, including the headquarters of the
Iran-linked ruling Dawa Party and the offices of the state-run
Iraqiya TV station — as well as the Iranian consulate. They also
attacked almost every office belonging to the Iran-backed Shia
militias known as the "Popular Mobilization Forces" or "Hasheed." At
least 15 people have been killed in the riots in the last week. On
Saturday, assailants fired Katyusha rockets at Basra airport.

There have been occasional anti-government protests in Basra for
years. The latest protests were triggered by brownish water coming
out of the water taps, making people sick who try to drink it, and by
a crippling electricity shortage at a time when temperatures are
reaching 120 degrees Fahrenheit during the day.

By Saturday afternoon, Iraqi security forces and troops began
deploying in the center of Basra and on street intersections. Dozens
of gun-mounted black pick-up trucks belonging to the Interior Ministry
and carrying masked security forces in combat fatigues were seen.
Iraqi News and AP and Vox and CNN



****
**** Riots in Iraq's Basra evoke fault lines of 1980s Iran-Iraq war
****

Basra is home to some of the largest oil fields in Iraq. These oil
fields are contributing enormously to Iraq's economy, but none of the
money seems to help Basra. Basra used to be called the "Venice of the
East" because of its network of waterways and canals, which should be
providing it with plenty of fresh water. But the canals were bombed
by Iran during the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, and have not been repaired
since then.

Most Iraqis are Shia Muslims, with Sunni Muslims in the minority.
After the war, Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Muslim, neglected and
marginalized the mostly Shia Basra population, causing considerable
dissent. When Saddam was deposed by the 2003 American invasion, an
Iran-linked Shia government came to power, and they have also largely
neglected and marginalized the Basra population. The Basra Shias have
returned the favor by forcing the few Sunnis living in Basra to leave.

Although the split between Sunni and Shia Muslims is a defining
feature of the Mideast, there are also ethnic alliances that override
the sectarian fault lines. Iraq had two generational crisis wars
during the last century, the 1920 Iraqi Revolution and the 1980s
Iran-Iraq war. In both of those wars, the Iraqi Sunnis and Shias
united behind the war effort against the enemy -- the British
colonists in 1920 and the Iranians in the 1980s. So even those the
Muslims in Basra are Shia Muslims, they have bitter memories of the
atrocities committed by the Iranians in the 1980s. Those bitter
memories are revived every time someone is killed by a land mine
planted by Iran during the 1980s war.

So the current riots in Basra are about more than drinking water and
electricity. There is a great deal of fury directed at Iran's
"meddling" in the current government, which is in a state of chaos
anyway.

Politicians in Baghdad have not agreed on a government following
inconclusive elections in May. The new parliament met for the first
time on Monday, but failed to elect a speaker, much less name a prime
minister, so the former prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, continues in
power. Parliament convened an emergency session on Saturday to
discuss the crisis in Basra, but no action was taken.

Another interesting fact is that there are differences between Shia
theology in Basra and Shia theology in Iran.

When Ruhollah Khomeini set up his Islamic Revolutionary government
after Iran's 1979 civil war, he reinterpreted centuries of Shia
theology to include a doctrine called Wilayat
al-Faqih, which means
Guardianship of the Jurist. The effect of this doctrine was that the
Supreme Leader was considered to be as infallible as the 12 infallible
Imams that had led Shia Islam over a millennium ago. This meant, of
course, that Khomeini was the infallible leader of all Shia Muslims.

Needless to say, Shia Muslims in Iraq do not accept Khomeini or the
current Supreme Leader, Seyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei, as infallible
leaders. So the doctrine of Wilayat
al-Faqih (Guardianship of the
Jurist) is rejected by Iraq's Shias in Basra, and so Iran's Shiism and
Iraq's Shiism are effectively two different sects.

This difference goes to the core of the protests, as the government in
Baghdad is linked with Iran and Iranian Shiism. This will have to be
settled as part of the resolution to the current riots. Reuters and Al Monitor and Middle East Eye (16-July)

Related Articles:

• Iraq: Supporters of al-Sadr and al-Maliki turn again to violence in Baghdad (12-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Iraq government faces climatic Awakening era political crisis (02-May-2016)
  
  
• Reader question on Iran and Iraq's Muqtada al-Sadr (04-May-2016)
  
  
• Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (01-Apr-2007)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Basra, Iran, Dawa party,
Popular Mobilization Forces, Hasheed,
Iran-Iraq war, Seyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei, Ruhollah Khomeini,
Saddam Hussein,
Wilayat
al-Faqih, Guardianship of the Jurist

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Sep-18 World View -- In major escalation, Iran's missiles strike Kurdish targets in northern Iraq

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• In major escalation, Iran's missiles strike Kurdish targets in northern Iraq
  
• Iran's missile attack displays the rising power of the IRGC in Iran
  

****
**** In major escalation, Iran's missiles strike Kurdish targets in northern Iraq
****


Protesters outside the burning Iran consulate in Basra on Friday (Reuters)

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) took credit on Sunday
for Saturday's sophisticated missile attack on the bases of two
military anti-Iran opposition groups in Koya near Erbil in Kurdistan
in northern Iraq. The two groups are fighting for greater autonomy
for Iran’s Kurdish community.

The two groups are the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI)
and the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDP-I). Referring to the
dissidents as "criminal groups," the IRGC statement said:

<QUOTE>"In a successful operation, the Guards’ aerospace
unit, along with the army’s drone unit ... targeted a criminal
group’s meeting and a terrorist training centre with seven
short-range surface-to-surface missiles.

[The group's leaders decided] to ignore serious warnings by
officials of the Kurdistan Regional Government about Iran’s
determination to dismantle their bases ... and the need for an end
to terrorist and aggressive actions against Iran."<END QUOTE>

The missile attacks were apparently very well planned for several
weeks in advance. The attack on the meeting room was very precise,
and occurred when the meeting was in progress. Seven missiles were
used in the attacks, killing 11 people and wounding dozens more.

As we reported yesterday,

anti-Iran rioters in the southern Iraqi city Basra stormed and burned
down Iran's consulate in Basra. This act infuriated the Iranian
officials in Tehran, who summoned the Iraqi ambassador to Tehran to
protest the attack, and issued this statement:

<QUOTE>"The Persian Gulf Director General of Iranian Foreign
Ministry [Mohammad Farazmand] voiced surprise over immobility of
Basra police and said that despite the promises given by the Iraqi
officials through diplomatic channels reassuring about the safety
of Iran’s consulate general which was threatened by the
provocation of some suspicious elements, the Iraqi government did
not deliver on its promises."<END QUOTE>

Even though Iran's missile attack on Erbil occurred a day after the
Basra rioters' attack on the Iranian consulate, it's not believed that
the two incidents are directly related, since the missile attack had
apparently been in preparation for weeks. Nonetheless, anti-Iran
protests have been simmering for a long time in Basra, and Iran may
have wanted to send a message that the anti-Iran protests will not be
tolerated.

On Sunday, Iraqi officials issued a statement condemning Iran's
missile strike -- not because the strike occurred, but but because it
occurred without first warning Iraq's government and coordinating with
the Iraqi military:

<QUOTE>"The Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs stresses its
rejection of the artillery shelling that targeted Koy Sanjaq
district in Erbil on Saturday, leaving scores dead and wounded.

The ministry strongly refuses the breaching of Iraqi sovereignty
without prior coordination with Iraqi military authorities to
avoid the fall of civilian victims."<END QUOTE>

So, the second message that Iran is sending is that it can strike deep
into Iraqi territory any time it wants, without notifying the Iraqi
military in advance.

The two countries fought an extremely bloody war, the Iran-Iraq war,
killing 1.5 million people, and climaxing in 1988 with Saddam Hussein
and Iraq using chemical weapons against both the Kurds and the
Iranians. Iran's missile attack on Erbil is a major escalation in the
tensions between the two countries, and a further evocation of
memories of the Iran-Iraq war.

Iraq's government is in complete disarray, with a parliament that has
had only two sessions since the inconclusive elections in May, and is
unable even to elect a speaker.

As I described yesterday,
even
though it's mostly Shia Muslim government, Iraqi Shiism has a
different theology than Iran's Shiism, and there are political splits
over aligning with the United States or with Iran.

So the second message that Iran sent along with its missiles is that
siding with the US against Iran id going to have a cost.

The third message being sent by the missile strike is to Israel. The
missiles used on Saturday were extremely precise and coordinated with
the drone surveillance. These missiles are considerably more
sophisticated than Iran has used in the past, and they may have been
distributed to Syria or Hezbollah, to be used against Israel.
Iraqi News and Mehr News (Tehran) and Reuters and
Jerusalem Post

****
**** Iran's missile attack displays the rising power of the IRGC in Iran
****

Saturday's missile attack was launched by the Iranian Revolutionary
Guards Corps (IRGC), which has become increasingly powerful.

As I described yesterday,
at the
time of the 1979 revolution, Ruhollah Khomeini reinterpreted Shia
theology to make himself equivalent to an infallible Imam, and
therefore essentially a dictator. He created the IRGC to prevent any
outside coups, and to give himself absolute power.

The death of Khomeini in 1989, and the succession as supreme leader by
Ali Khamenei, allowed the IRGC to expand its power. The IRGC led the
extremely bloody and violent crackdown against peaceful protesters
after the fraudulent 2009 presidential election, and then again in
the widespread anti-government demonstrations
that erupted in late 2017 and early 2018.

Since January, the IRGC has become even more belligerent, particularly
in the face of the Trump administrations plans to re-implement
sanctions on Iran that were removed following the 2015 nuclear deal.

Recently General Alireza Tangsiri, the head of the IRGC Navy, said
that Iran had full control of the Gulf of Hormuz, and that it could
take military action to block other countries' oil exports in
retaliation for U.S. sanctions intended to halt its sales of crude.
According to Tangsiri:

<QUOTE>"We can ensure the security of the Persian Gulf and
there is no need for the presence of aliens like the U.S. and the
countries whose home is not in here.

All the carriers and military and non-military ships will be
controlled and there is full supervision over the Persian
Gulf. Our presence in the region is physical and constant and
night and day."<END QUOTE>

The IRGC was originally created to protect the regime from a coup.
Although there have been no overt signs of it, there are some fears
that the IRGC will itself launch a coup and create a military
dictatorship. Asharq Al-Awsat (Saudi Arabia) and Reuters

Related Articles:

• Riots in Iraq's Basra evoke fault lines of 1980s Iran-Iraq war (09-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Escalating violence in Iran protests brings calls for Iran-Israel friendship (02-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Iran's anti-government protests expand as rial currency plummets (01-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran (30-Dec-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Iran, Basra, Erbil, Koya,
Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan, PDKI,
Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran, KDP-I,
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, IRGC,
Iran-Iraq war, Seyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei, Ruhollah Khomeini,
Mohammad Farazmand, Israel, Alireza Tangsiri, Gulf of Hormuz

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Sep-18 World View -- Tensions grow in Philippines as Duterte turns against China in South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tensions grow in Philippines as Duterte turns against China in South China Sea
  
• China increasingly rejects Duterte's 'diplomatic actions'
  
• Zambia becomes the next nation to fall victim to China's 'debt trap'
  

****
**** Tensions grow in Philippines as Duterte turns against China in South China Sea
****


Xi Jinping and rodrigo Duterte meet in Hainan, China, in April 2018 (EPA)

Philippines president Rodrigo R. Duterte was taking office in 2016 at
just about the time that the Philippines won a historic case in the
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague thoroughly
humiliating China by ruling that all of China's activities in the
South China Sea are illegal and in violation of international law.

Duterte's first acts in office were to cutoff relations with the
United States, and to take a trip to Beijing, where he was given the
red carpet treatment by China's president Xi Jinping. Duterte
indicated that he would not enforce the Tribunal ruling, and in fact
appeared to be giving Scarborough Shoal away to the Chinese.

The international headlines at the time were things like "Duterte's
flip-flop into bed with China is a disaster for the United States."
( "23-Oct-16 World View -- Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte in comic dance with China"
)

As I wrote at the time, the "flip-flop" couldn't possibly last, for
several reasons: Among the Philippine people, 54% have a favorable
view of China, while 92% have a favorable view of the United States.
Also, the Philippine people historically hate the Chinese, while the
Chinese people historically hate the Philippine people. In 2012, a
Chinese television anchor 'accidentally' claimed
that the Philippines "is China's inherent
territory and the Philippines belongs to Chinese sovereignty, this is
an indisputable fact."

So the leaders of China and the Philippines can make deals if they
like, but we know from generational theory that major decisions like
that are made by the people, entire generations, not by the
politicians. So there was never any chance that the "flip-flop" would
last.

Duterte's decision on China was never really popular, and generated
immediate backlash at home, but it was reluctantly accepted by the
Philippine people because the alternative appeared to be war with
China if the Philippines tried to enforce the Tribunal's ruling in the
South China Sea.

In fact, in May of last year, Duterte explained his decision by
recounting a conversation he had with Xi Jinping a year earlier, in
which Xi threatened war:

<QUOTE>"Duterte: Mr. Xi Jinping, I will insist that it is
ours and we will drill oil. [T]hat is ours and we intend to drill
oil there. My view is I can drill the oil.

Xi: Well we are friends. We don’t want to quarrel with you. We
want to maintain warm relationship, but if you force the issue we
will go to war.

Duterte: I’ll drill the oil.

Xi: Please do not do that because that is ours.

Duterte: That is according to you. But I have the arbitral
[referring to the Hague tribunal ruling].

Xi: Yes, but ours is historical and yours is legal of recent
memory.

Duterte: But that’s too far away. It’s almost alien to us to hear
those words because we were never under Chinese jurisdiction.

Xi: Well, if you force the issue, we’ll be forced to tell you the
truth.

Duterte: So what is the truth?

Xi: We will go to war. We will fight you."<END QUOTE>

After recounting the conversation, Duterte added:

<QUOTE>"Are they willing to fight? Because if they are
willing to fight, we are. But why would I do that? It will result
in a massacre and it will just destroy everything."<END QUOTE>

So Duterte decided that he had to accede to China's threats.

As part of Duterte's agreement with China, China promised to deliver
$24 billion investments in 27 different projects. Duterte repeatedly
touted China’s financial help as a key reason for pivoting away from
the U.S. and Europe, which he said haven’t produced material gains for
the Philippines.

But by 2018, it turns out that the $24 billion investment promise was
an empty promise. A $1 billion, 300-megawatt hydropower plant was
never begun. A $700 million stainless steel plant was put on hold. A
project to raise three islands from a waterlogged area was canceled.
ABS-CBN (19-May-2017) and Bloomberg (25-Jul-2018)


****
**** China increasingly rejects Duterte's 'diplomatic actions'
****

Since 2016, Duterte has tried with some success to use bilateral
negotiations to resolve the South China Sea disputes. However, a
series of belligerent Chinese actions in 2018 had caused Duterte to be
increasingly critical of China in public statements:

• China has fortified its militarism in the South China Sea,
  violating its own promise that its intentions were peaceful.
  
  
• China landed bomber aircraft on territory claimed by the
  Philippines and asserted its presence at Sandy Cay in the Spratly
  Island chain. Duterte's spokesman said, "The President (Rodrigo
  Duterte), who is the chief architect of the nation’s foreign policy,
  will not sit on our rights and will never give away even an inch of
  territory. The current administration has acted on incidents which
  occurred in the disputed areas over the West Philippine Sea by taking
  diplomatic actions with China. Indeed, we will resort to all
  diplomatic initiatives when warranted but without fanfare." ABS-CBN (31-May-2018)
  
  
• A Philippine government report in August said that Philippine
  military aircraft had received threats from China at least 46 times,
  while patrolling in international airspace near the artificial islands
  that China build in the Spratly archipelago. In one case, a plane
  received a threat: “Philippine military aircraft, I am warning you
  again, leave immediately or you will pay the possible consequences.”
  The Filipino pilot later “sighted two flare warning signals from the
  reef." AP
  
  
• Duterte said that China's claim "is wrong," and Beijing should not
  tell others to leave those areas to avoid possible clashes: "They have
  to rethink that, because that would be a flashpoint someday and even,
  you know, warning others. You cannot create an island, it’s man-made,
  and you say that the air above these artificial islands is yours."
  Panay News (16-Aug)
  
  
• Duterte criticized China's actions in the South China Sea. "I
  hope that China would temper at least its behavior. I do not want to
  quarrel with China." CNN (15-Aug)
  
  
• Duterte criticized China for using "nasty words," referring to
  numerous threats directed at the Philippines: "You know very well that
  we will not attack. ... We’re not prepared to go to war with you so
  why do you have to say those nasty words?" ABS-CBN (17-Aug)
  
  
• In a speech a week later, Duterte joked that he would send his
  Interior Department head, a former military chief, to attach the
  Chinese if the exploit resources in the South China Sea. He was
  particularly referring to uranium and oil. ABS-CBN (22-Aug)

Duterte's honeymoon with China, if it ever existed, appears to be
over. Duterte now says that he plans to talk to US President Donald
Trump about the possible purchase of military equipment for the
military and the police. Philippine Star

Related Articles

• Philippine President Duterte reverses position, says he would go to war with China over South China Sea (30-May-2018)
  
  
• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte in comic dance with China (23-Oct-2016)
  
  
• China snubs Philippines on humanitarian aid, then backs down (15-Nov-2013)
  
  
• China's media 'accidentally' claims Philippines as part of China (10-May-2012)
  

****
**** Zambia becomes the next nation to fall victim to China's 'debt trap'
****

Zambia is one of 50 African nations whose leaders visited Beijing last
week to hear Xi Jinping promise $60 billion in aid to Africa for
infrastructure projects. This aid is in the form of loans that must
be repaid.

Now Zambia is in talks with China over a possible takeover of the
country's electricity company, ZEWASCO, after defaulting on loan
repayment from a previous loan.

As I described in my article last week,
China structures the aid agreements without concern for
whether the loan can be repaid, since China then has the option of
taking control of the country's infrastructure in case of default.

As I explained, it's actually worse than that. China loans the money
to the country, and requires that it only be used to pay the salaries
of Chinese workers, and to purchase parts and equipment from Chinese
factories. So the money is immediately returned to China, but still
has to be repaid, so the country is effectively forced to repay the
loan twice. After default, and the Chinese take control of the
infrastructure project, there is an enclave of Chinese workers and
their families who will be there forever. Pulse Live (Kenya)

Related Articles

• China courts African nations as charges of 'neo-colonialism' grow (04-Sep-2018)
  
  
• China's railway contractor in Kenya accused of 'neo-colonialism, racism and blatant discrimination' (14-Jul-2018)
  
  
• China takes control of strategic Hambantota seaport in Sri Lanka, raising concerns in India (11-Dec-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Xi Jinping, Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague,
Scarborough Shoal, Zambia, ZEWASCO

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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Sep-18 World View -- Russia's 'strategic alliance' with China evokes memories of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia, with China's participation, launches biggest war games in decades
  
• Russia's Vostok-2018 war games send a message to China
  
• Has Vladimir Putin forgotten the lessons of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?
  

****
**** Russia, with China's participation, launches biggest war games in decades
****


Putin and the Vostok-2018 war games

Russia on Tuesday launched Vostok-2018 ("East-2018"), its biggest
military exercise in decades, involving 300,000 personnel, 36,000
armored vehicles, 1,000 aircraft, and 80 naval vessels from two
Russian fleets. Three brigades of Russian paratroops will play a key
role. The war games will last until September 17.

An important symbolic change this year is that 3,200 Chinese troops
will participate alongside the Russian troops. Mongolia is also
sending an undisclosed number of units.

One message being sent to the West is that Russia will be prepared to
respond to US military action in Asia, if such every occurs. A key
aim of the exercise is to practice the rapid deployment of thousands
of troops, as well as aircraft and vehicles, from western Russia to
eastern regions, across thousands of miles, including in-flight
refuelling of fighter jets.

A second message being sent to the West is that Russia and China are
"forming deep bonds," to counter America's international influence.
Jamestown and Tass
and Reuters and South China Morning Post


****
**** Russia's Vostok-2018 war games send a message to China
****

There massive Vostok-2018 war games, the largest since the collapse of
the Soviet Empire, are also sending a message to China that Russia is
prepared to defend its Far East region from a Chinese military
incursion. This in fact was the original purpose of the Vostok war
games during the days of the Soviet Union.

This is the first time that any nation outside of the former Soviet
Union has been included in the Vostok exercises. Many analysts
believe that Russia decided that including a small number of Chinese
and Mongolian troops in the war games is the best way to send the
message that Russia is STILL prepared to defend the Far East, as well
as to reassure both countries that the war games are not the precursor
to an imminent invasion of either county.

Russia has been openly concerned about Russia's at least since 2012,
when Russia's prime minister Dmitry Medvedev warned that a huge influx
of immigrants from China threatened Russia's control of Siberia and
Far East. ( "31-Mar-18 World View -- Russia's Far East, Siberia and Vladivostok under threat from China"
)

In particular, Russia's Lake Baikal in Siberia, the deepest lake in
the world, is being buried in huge mountains of garbage from Chinese
tourists. Chinese guides tell Chinese tourists that Baikal is China’s
northern sea, that their ancestors used to live there, and that the
territory only belongs to Russia for the time being. These guides also
reportedly encourage Chinese visitors to buy property and businesses
in order to make money over the next decade. Many are doing so.

Also, many Chinese on social media are suggesting that China should
reclaim Vladivostok, the home of Russia's Pacific Fleet, from Russia,
just as China reclaimed Hong Kong from Britain. That's not going to
happen without a war, and that's why Russia is sending China a
message.

When Russia holds war games in the west, they are obviously aimed at
Nato. But the Vostok games are held in the east, and there's no clear
enemy in sight, so naturally the media assume that they're aimed at
the United States. But in fact, Russia has a far more immediate enemy
in the region, and that's China. So even though China is
participating in the war games, it's most likely that the war games
are aimed at China. Moscow Times and Asia Times

****
**** Has Vladimir Putin forgotten the lessons of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact?
****

Much of what President Trump does is extremely perplexing because of
his stated intention to not reveal what he plans to do. So many
questions are left unanswered.

Why does Trump keep complimenting Kim Jong-un, when he must know that
North Korea will never denuclearize? Does Trump really want to fire
Jeff Sessions, or does he keep threatening to fire Sessions to protect
Sessions, and allow him to implement Trump's programs without
criticism from the Left? When Trump met with Putin privately
in July, did they discuss China's plans
for war with both of them?

The reality of today's international politics is that a lot of people
are playing "The Art of the Deal," and one can't be sure that anyone
says what he means.

The Russians have hated the Chinese ever since the Mongols defeated
the Chinese in 1206, and then went on to attack and conquer almost all
the Russian principalities, and made them bitter vassals of the Mongol
Empire, in a relationship called the "Mongol Yoke." This hated
period, two centuries long, has defined the relationship between the
Russian and Chinese people forever. There is no possibility that
China and Russia will remain "strategic partners" for long. In fact,
Soviet Russia and China almost went to full-scale war as recently as
the 1960s.

If Trump and Putin really did discuss plans for mutual defense after
China's military attack, then Putin must also be aware that China is
planning war with Russia, and so this mutual "strategic alliance"
between Russia and China is all a charade.

Probably the biggest diplomatic blunder in Russia's history was Josef
Stalin believing that Adolf Hitler would honor the Molotov-Ribbentrop
Pact, which the two had signed on August 23, 1939.

That pact was a mutual non-aggression treaty that obligated the two
countries "to desist from any act of violence, any aggressive action,
and any attack on each other, either individually or jointly with
other Powers." Stalin was completely shocked and totally unprepared
when Hitler violated the pact and invaded Russia to get some
Lebensraum ("living space").

We know that China has also been pursuing the same Lebensraum objective,
at least since the time of
Chiang Ki-shek after World War II. The Chinese Communist Party view
of Han Racial Superiority is no different than the Nazi view of the
Aryan Master Race. So it's absolutely certain that Xi Jinping will
double-cross Vladimir Putin, just as Adolf Hitler double-crossed Josef
Stalin.

So has Putin learned the lessons of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact? If
so, then Putin and Trump certainly did discuss China's plans for war
in their private meeting, and Vostok-2018 is much less a message to
the US than it is a message to China that Putin won't be a sucker like
Stalin was. Jewish Virtual Library and Breitbart National Security

Related Articles

• Russia's Far East, Siberia and Vladivostok under threat from China (31-Mar-2018)
  
  
• The Trump-Putin private meeting was almost certainly about China (21-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Poland welcomes biggest deployment of American tanks and troops in decades (15-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Russia's concerns about China's 'invasion' of the Far East continue (21-Jun-2015)
  
  
• Russia holds massive Vostok 2014 military exercises amid anti-US hysteria (26-Sep-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Vostok 2018, China, mongolia,
Dmitry Medvedev, Siberia, Far East, Lake Baikal, Vladivostok,
Kim Jong-un, Vladimir Putin, Jeff Sessions, Mongol Yoke,
Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, Josef Stalin, Adolf Hitler,
Xi Jinping, Lebensraum, Han Racial Superiority, Aryan Master Race

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Sep-18 World View -- EU Parliament censures Hungary for breaching 'core EU values'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• EU Parliament censures Hungary for breaching 'core EU values'
  
• EU proposes a new free trade agreement with Africa
  

****
**** EU Parliament censures Hungary for breaching 'core EU values'
****


Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán points to a document during Tuesday's speech to European Parliament (EPA)

In what some analysts are considering a historic action in the
development of the European Union, the European Parliament voted
overwhelmingly on Wednesday to pursue disciplinary action against
Hungary over alleged breaches of the EU's core values. The phrase
"core values" refers to values on which the EU was founded.

More than two-thirds of MEPs voted for the censure motion, the first
in EU's history. A similar motion to censure Poland has not yet
reached the European Parliament.

There were numerous charges leveled against Hungary's president Viktor
Orbán, including the following:

• modifying the constitution multiple times to remove checks and
  balances
  
• corruption in elections, including intimidating and xenophobic
  rhetoric, media bias and opaque campaign financing
  
• presidential control of the courts
  
• court procedures violated rights to a fair trial
  
• firing of judges for political reasons
  
• no prohibitions for conflicts of interest in Hungary's
  parliament
  
• restrictions on international monitoring of elections
  
• insufficient legal guarantees against unlawful secret surveillance
  for national security purpose
  
• changes to the definition of "illegal media content" that restrict
  freedom of the press, as well as freedome of opinion and
  expression
  
• restrictions on academic freedom
  
• harsh restrictions on freedom of religion, reducing the number of
  legally recognised churches in Hungary to 14, requiring deregistration
  process of hundreds of previously lawfully recognized churched
  
• questioning the legitimacy of NGO work related to the exercise of
  fundamental freedoms, such as the rights to freedoms of opinion and
  expression, and of peaceful assembly and of association
  
• adoption of a legislative package consisting of three draft laws,
  also known as the "Stop-Soros Package" targeting NGOs that work with
  migrants, alluding to the "survival of the nation" and linking the
  work of NGOs to an alleged international conspiracy.
  
• patriarchal stereotyped attitudes still prevail in Hungary with
  respect to the position of women in society

However, the most divisive charge was Orbán's extremely hardline
attitude toward migrants. Germany MEP Manfred Weber, who has
announced his bid to become the next president of the European
Commission, accused Orbán of running a hate campaign against Muslim
migrants:

<QUOTE>"One thing must be clear - if we say generally that
you have to be afraid about Muslims, and attack a religion, then
we do the job of jihadis, who want to create a clash in our
societies. We have invented human rights and not Christian rights
on this continent."<END QUOTE>

On Tuesday, Orbán spoke to the Parliament, and condemned the expected
vote:

<QUOTE>"I know that you have already made up your minds. I
know that a majority will approve the report and I know that my
speech here today will not manage to change your opinion.

But still I have come here today because you are not going to
condemn a government but a country as well as a nation. You are
going to denounce Hungary that has been a member of the family of
Christian nations for a thousand years."<END QUOTE>

After the vote, Hungary's foreign minister called the vote fraudulent
and vowed to challenge it.

As I've been writing for over ten years, almost every nation in the
world is becoming increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic as the
world goes deeper into a generational Crisis era. This is happening
because the survivors of the horrors of World War II vowed never to
allow anything so horrible to happen again, and they've spent their
lives doing everything they could to prevent it. But those survivors
continue to disappear, and people in younger generations, with no
personal knowledge of the horrors of World War II, adopt increasingly
xenophobic and nationalistic behaviors that will lead to a new world
war.

Orbán's remark saying that Hungary "has been a member of the family of
Christian nations for a thousand years" is interesting. Xenophobia,
which is derived from a Greek word meaning "fear of strangers," really
has nothing to do with religion, although for Orbán the issue is
Christians versus Muslims.

But a big part of Britain's campaign has been xenophobia directed at
Christians from countries like Poland and Hungary in Eastern Europe,
and xenophobia in America has been directed at Christians from Mexico.
The xenophobic "fear of strangers" can apply anyone, such as the
mutual xenophobia between China and each of Japan, the Philippines and
Vietnam.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the way the world
works is that population grows exponentially, growing faster than the
resources such as food and water, resulting in mass migrations. Today
we're seeing huge human migrations around the world, in the Mideast,
Africa, South America, and Asia. These huge human migrants cause
problems that can be resolved in only one way -- a new world war. A
new world war will reduce the population 30%, 40%, 50% -- through
nuclear war, ground war, starvation and disease. That will reduce the
need for mass migrations, will solve the problem of insufficient food
for everyone, and will even reduce the amount of "human activity,"
making climate change activists happy. European Commission and EU Observer and BBC and EU Observer and Daily Mail (London)

Related Articles:

• Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party victory in Hungary signals strong European move to the right (10-Apr-2018)
  
  
• Migrants trapped in Serbia march toward border with Hungary (25-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Turkey and Hungary play hardball at EU-Turkey refugee summit (08-Mar-2016)
  

****
**** EU proposes a new free trade agreement with Africa
****

Jean-Claude Jüncker, the outgoing president of the European
Commission, announced in his State of the Union speech on Wednesday a
proposal for a new "Africa – Europe Alliance for Sustainable
Investment and Jobs."

The intent is to create "a comprehensive continent-to-continent free
trade agreement between the EU and Africa." During the period
2021-27, overall funding will increase by &euro;123 billion, creating
10 million new jobs in Africa.

The major motivation for this proposal is to try to slow the flow of
migrants from Africa to Europe, by providing jobs in Africa that will
reduce the motivation to migrate. According to press release:

<QUOTE>"The joint efforts on jobs and growth under the
Alliance, by African and European partners, will also contribute
to address challenges and opportunities linked to mobility and
migration. The efforts will address the root causes of irregular
migration and forced displacement, building resilience, providing
jobs and enabling the integration and reintegration of some of the
most vulnerable parts of the population. The proposal therefore
supports and contributes to the implementation of the EU Agenda
for Migration."<END QUOTE>

This proposal appears to be highly delusional. EU member states would
object to the proposal, particularly in the area of opening
agricultural markets, where Africa would have a price advantage.

Furthermore, Africa does not appear ready to negotiate as a 54 member
bloc. There are existing negotiations for an African Continental Free
Trade Area (CFTA) where the countries are unable to agree on ending
tariffs among African nations. Reuters and European Commission and RFI

Related Articles:

• EU faces new crisis as Italy demands that Malta accept African migrants (11-Jun-2018)
  
  
• European-African summit calls for end to slavery auctions in Libya (01-Dec-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Hungary, European Union,
European Parliament, Viktor Orbán, Manfred Weber,
Jean-Claude Jüncker, European Commission, Africa,
African Continental Free Trade Area, CFTA

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Sep-18 World View -- Saudis in Yemen cut the supply routes from Hodeidah seaport to Sanaa

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudis in Yemen cut the supply routes from Hodeidah seaport to Sanaa
  
• Turkey, desperate to stop Syrian Idlib offensive, is supplying weapons to rebels
  

****
**** Saudis in Yemen cut the supply routes from Hodeidah seaport to Sanaa
****


Houthis perform a demonstration using traditional daggers in Sanaa, Yemen, in 2015 (European Pressphoto Agency)

The Saudi Arabia-led military coalition fighting the Iran-backed
Houthis in Yemen are claiming that they've cut off the main supply
routes connecting al-Hodeidah seaport and city to to Sanaa, Yemen's
capital city under control of the Houthis.

The Saudis and their coalition partner United Arab Emirates (UAE) were
the targets of intense international criticism of the after their
warplanes killed at least 26 children and four women in al-Hodeidah
seaport, and after another airstrike two weeks earlier killed dozens
of children traveling in a school bus.

The international criticism led the Saudis to enter peace talks with
the Houthis and reduce the airstrikes. However, the peace talks
failed, and Saudi Arabia resumed the airstrikes on Wednesday.

Al-Hodeidah is home to Yemen’s largest seaport and the main gateway
for food, fuel and humanitarian aid to the rest of the country. An
estimated 80 percent of Yemen’s commercial supplies go through
al-Hodeidah. The Saudi-led coalition have been trying to retake the
al-Hodeidah city from the Houthis for the past few months, displacing
470,000 people since June. But it is still home to hundreds of
thousands of civilians, half of them children.

Taking control of roads linking al-Hodeidah to Sanaa will mean that
supplied needed by the Houthi fighters will be less available, but it
will also cut off food, fuel, medicines and humanitarian supplies to
much of Yemen.

Ms. Lise Grande, the UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Yemen, said in a
statement:

<QUOTE>"Hundreds of thousands of lives hang in the balance in
Hodeidah. The situation has deteriorated dramatically in the past
few days. Families are absolutely terrified by the bombardment,
shelling and airstrikes.

People are struggling to survive, More than 25 percent of children
are malnourished; 900,000 people in the governorate are desperate
for food and 90,000 pregnant women are at enormous risk. Families
need everything--food, cash, health care, water, sanitation,
emergency supplies, specialized support and many need
shelter. It’s heart-breaking to see so many people who need so
much."<END QUOTE>

The Saudis have said that taking control of al-Hodeidah and the main
supply routes would force the Houthis to the negotiating table.
Reuters and Save the Children and Relief Web and Al Jazeera

Related Articles:

• Saudis target women and children in Yemen to make them 'shiver' for generations (28-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Saudi coalition claims to have captured airport in Yemen's Hodeidah (20-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia and UAE launch a 'catastrophic' assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen (15-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Iranian advisors are 'on the ground' with Houthis in Yemen, supplying weapons and intelligence (06-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Brief generational history of South Yemen (29-Jan-2018)
  

****
**** Turkey, desperate to stop Syrian Idlib offensive, is supplying weapons to rebels
****

There are reports that Turkey is sending more military aid to
anti-Assad rebels in Idlib, after a summit meeting last week with
Russia and Iran failed to agree to a deal to avert a Syria-Russia
assault into Idlib. ( "8-Sep-18 World View -- Turkey fails to prevent Russia and Iran from mass slaughter in Idlib, Syria"
)

Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has vowed to take control of every
inch of Syria, with no compromise. In previous battles, in Aleppo,
Ghouta and Daraa, his regime joined with Russia to use missiles,
barrel bombs, chlorine gas and Sarin gas to kill the "terrorists" in
each territory, following Vladimir Putin's "Grozny Model." Entire
neighborhoods are flattened, and schools, markets and hospitals are
particularly targeted in order to kill as many women and children as
possible, as part of Bashar al-Assad's genocidal campaign.

However, Idlib is different. It has over 3 million people, many of
whom fled there from the violence in other locations. They will have
nowhere to flee from Idlib, except across the border into Turkey,
which Turkey has closed. Turkey is already host to 3.5 million Syrian
refugees.

Turkey is desperate to stop the Syria-Russia offensive, because it
would be a humanitarian disaster in Idlib, and because it would be a
humanitarian disaster for Turkey. Turkey would be faced with the
choice of keeping the border closed and allow al-Assad to slaughter
the civilians like trapped animals, or to open the border and permit a
million more refugees enter Turkey, and possibly go on from there to
Europe, posing a security risk in both places.

This is Turkey's justification for providing more weapons to
anti-Assad rebels in the Free Syrian Army (FSA). According to FSA
commanders who have been in talks with senior Turkish officials, said:

<QUOTE>"“They pledged complete Turkish military support for a
long, protracted battle. These arms supplies and munitions will
allow the battle to extend and ensure our supplies are not drained
in a war of attrition."<END QUOTE>

The weapons, already spotted in convoys crossing the border from
Turkey into Idlib, include large quantities of ammunition and GRAD
rockets. Hurriyet/AFP and Reuters and AP

Related Articles:

• Turkey fails to prevent Russia and Iran from mass slaughter in Idlib, Syria (08-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Syria and Russia prepare to inflict massive bloodbath on Idlib (05-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Russia demands that US and EU pay to rebuild Syria (23-Aug-2018)
  
  
• US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Iran, Houthis,
Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, UAE,
al-Hodeidah seaport, Lise Grande, Turkey,
Syria, Idlib, Iran, Russia, Grozny Model,
Vladimir Putin, Free Syrian Army, FSA, Bashar al-Assad

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Sep-18 World View -- Zambia denies defaulting on infrastructure loans from China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Zambia denies defaulting on infrastructure loans from China
  
• Zambia faces long term corruption concerns
  

****
**** Zambia denies defaulting on infrastructure loans from China
****


Zambia's finance minister, Margaret Mwanakatwe (Lusaka Times)

Several days ago, reported that Zambia is negotiating with China
over a possible takeover of the
country's electricity company, ZEWASCO, after defaulting on loan
repayment from a previous loan. That report was based on a news story
from Kenya.

There have actually been numerous news stories in the last couple of
weeks claiming that Zambia has fallen victim a China "debt trap," and
is being required to give not only ZEWASCO, but also Zambia's Kenneth
Kaunda International Airport [KKIA].

In addition, a subscriber-only newsletter called Africa Confidential
has published reports detailing embezzlement by Zambian officials, led
by President Edgar Chagwa Lungu.

Zambia officials are claiming that the news stories, including those
in Africa Confidential, are "fake news," that there is no debt trap,
and Zambia will have no problem making payments to China.

Zambia's finance minister, Margaret Mwanakatwe, issued a statement on
Friday:

• There has been no default on debt obligations to China.
  
  
• The KKIA terminal is still under construction, so no payments are
  due yet.
  
  
• There have been several loans for the electric company, and some
  projects are still under constructions, but no loans are in
  default.
  
  
• "For all other loans that have been contracted from the Chinese
  government, the security on the loans is in form of insurance taken
  from Sinosure and for state owned enterprises an insurance from
  Sinosure and guarantee from the government are in place. Therefore, NO
  COLLATERAL IN THE FORM AS ASSETS has been provided for borrowings and
  none of the guarantees has been called upon."

The problem with Mwanakatwe's protestations is that she's unable to
provide any evidence to support them, because the entire relationship
between Zambia and China, including all contracts, is completely
secret. So if there's corruption and embezzlement going on, as Africa
Confidential claims, then Mwanakatwe is unable to deny those claims.

In situations like this, there's a test that I always like to apply,
namely to ask what the politician would say if all the accusations are
true. For example, if a politician is charged with murder, and he
says, "I didn't do it," then you could ask what he would say if he
did, and would say "I didn't do it." In other words, the politician
would say the same thing whether he committed murder or not. That
doesn't mean he did it, but it does show that everything that comes
out of the politician's mouth is 100% worthless, because he'd say
exactly the same thing under all circumstands.

So let's apply this test to Margaret Mwanakatwe. Suppose all the
charges of debt trap and embezzlement are true. What would Mwanakatwe
say? The answer is that she would issue a statement exactly like the
one that she did issue. In fact, the statement is filled with
statements that are empty claims because the details are secret,
giving me the (unprovable) feeling that the statement is an act of
desperation.

This has now become a major international scandal -- not in the West,
but in Africa. Many African governments are now facing embarrassing
questions about revealing the terms of their contracts with China, and
about why interest rates are so how, and why default terms are so
harsh. Officials will also be asked a lot more questions about
whether they're skimming China's loan money off the top -- something
they could easily do since all the terms of the contracts are kept
secret. Lusaka Times (Zambia) and Zambia Reports and Lusaka Times and VOA

****
**** Zambia faces long term corruption concerns
****

In June, the Geneva-based NGO, Global Fund to fight Aids, Tuberculosis
and Malaria, suspended $300 million in health funding to Zambia
because of alleged corruption in Zambia's health ministry.
Previously, Sweden and the Netherlands stopped health aid and the EU
halted road-building funds.

Zambia's story is a familiar one. Zambia made huge amounts of money
from copper mining in the 2000s decade, due to high prices for copper,
which makes up 80% of exports. When copper prices fell in 2011,
instead of decreasing government spending to match reduced income, the
new government, led by the Patriotic Front (PF) went on a spending
binge. According to the Economist, the PF funded new roads, hospitals
and airports, doubled civil-service wage expenses in the process, and
also expanded the number of districts from 72 to 115 so as to dole out
more patronage.

Furthermore, the borrowed money was not well spent. In building
roads, for example, the World Bank in 2017 found that Zambia paid
$360,000 per kilometre, which is more than twice the African
average. And since upkeep has been neglected, many new roads are
already potholed.

Today, nearly a quarter of government spending goes to make debt
payments. The government is broke. The government is delaying salary
payments to civil servants, as well as to contractors. Apparently the
government is forced to make debt payments to China, even if it means
not paying its own civil servants.

Furthermore, president Edgar Chagwa Lungu is following the same
corrupt path that occurs in country after country in Africa -- jailing
opposition leaders, shutting down newspapers that criticize him,
packing the courts with his supporters, and demanding that he stay in
power indefinitely, in violation of the constitution.

So even though the country is broke and the government is corrupt,
officials say that reports of debt default are "fake news."
Unfortunately, government officials have little credibility and, as in
the case of the statement by Margaret Mwanakatwe, there is absolutely
no reason to believe anything they say. Economist and BBC
and Economist

Related Articles:

• Zambia becomes the next nation to fall victim to China's 'debt trap' (11-Sep-2018)
  
  
• China's railway contractor in Kenya accused of 'neo-colonialism, racism and blatant discrimination' (14-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Zambia prays for divine intervention in copper prices (19-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Copper's crashing prices cause devastating economic ripples around the world (30-Sep-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Zambia, Edgar Chagwa Lungu,
ZEWASCO, Kenneth Kaunda International Airport, KKIA,
Africa Confidential, Margaret Mwanakatwe,
Global Fund to fight Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria,
Patriotic Front, World Bank

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe