Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-Oct-18 World View -- Namibia may follow South Africa with land confiscation without compensation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Namibia may follow South Africa with land confiscation without compensation
  
• Namibia government opposition calls the land reform proposal a 'sham'
  
• Brief generational history of Namibia
  

****
**** Namibia may follow South Africa with land confiscation without compensation
****


Namibia white-owned farm (Pixabay)

Namibia's president Hage Geingob announced on Monday that he would
push ahead with "land distribution," following the example of the
announcement by its close neighbor, South Africa.

According to Geingob, the practice of expropriating land with "fair
compensation" will be revisited, since it hasn't delivered results,
and that 43% of farmland will be transferred from white farmers to
"disadvantaged blacks" by 2020. In making the announcement, Geingob
said:

<QUOTE>"Many Namibians were driven off their productive
land. The fundamental issue is the inequality. We also share a
burning land issue and a racialized distribution of land resources
with South Africa.

This comes from a common history of colonial dispossession. What
we also agree to is that the status quo will not be allowed to
continue."<END QUOTE>

The phrase "colonial dispossession" refers to genocide and ethnic
cleansing by German colonists of tens of thousands of ethnic Herero
and Nama people from roughly 1895 to 1907. According to published
statistics, white Namibians today own 70% of agricultural land and
blacks 16%. The rest, about 250 farms, are under foreign ownership,
mostly by Germans.

Geingob added that by redistributing land from white farmers to
blacks, it will reduce inequality, and will be "an investment in
peace":

<QUOTE>"We need to revisit constitutional provisions which
allow for the expropriation of land with just compensation, as
opposed to fair compensation, and look at foreign ownership of
land, especially absentee land owners.

It is in all our interest, particularly the 'haves,' to ensure a
drastic reduction in inequality, by supporting the redistributive
model required to alter our skewed economic structure. We should
all be cognizant of the fact that this is ultimately an investment
in peace."<END QUOTE>

According to Geingob, the "willing-buyer, willing-seller" approach has
not worked to redistribute the land, and now a more aggressive
approach must be used. Deutsche Welle and The South African and Al Jazeera

****
**** Namibia government opposition calls the land reform proposal a 'sham'
****

The proposal for land confiscation without compensation is being made
at the Second National Land Conference, held in the capital city
Windhoek. Opposition figures have called for a boycott of the
conference because documents leaked prior to the conference indicated
that the outcomes were predetermined, and because opposition parties,
including representatives of white farmers, were not even invited.
Prime minister Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila denied that the outcomes
were predetermined, because all delegates coming to conference will
"share their honest views towards the debate to help our country make
progress towards the land reform program."

None of the news reports that I read about this proposal even mention
the Zimbabwe experience, so apparently that experience has been
forgotten. In the 1990s, Zimbabwe used to be the breadbasket of
southern Africa, growing much more food than the country needed and
exporting the rest. Then in 1999 Robert Mugabe instituted a "land
reform" plan just like the one that South Africa and Namibia are
planneg. Within ten years, Zimbabwe was an economic disaster, with
mass starvation, a worthless currency, and massive million percent
inflation.

The lack of transparency, and shutting out of the opposition are signs
that Zimbabwe's experience will be copied in another way. When Mugabe
confiscated the white farmers' farms, they were supposed to go to poor
blacks, but instead went to Mugabe's wealthy political cronies, people
who didn't even know how to farm. That's why Zimbabwe faced such a
financial disaster.

Namibia's new land reform program is supposed to confiscate white
farmers' farms and give them to "disadvantaged blacks," but the lack
of transparency and shutting out of the opposition indicates that
Geingob will do what Mugabe did -- give the farms to his élite wealthy
political cronies, who know nothing about farming. Why would anyone
expect anything else? Those cronies worked hard to get Geingob
elected, so shouldn't they be rewarded with all the farmland? It's
only fair.

So that's what happened to Zimbabwe when it was a relatively wealthy
country in the 1990s. But Namibia is not a wealthy country. As of
the second quarter of 2018, Namibia's economy had shrunk for nine
consecutive quarters. Earlier this year, the government had to stop
feeding the army, or paying the water and electricity bills for its
military bases.

Namibia is a mineral-rich country, and was considered to be stable and
democratic. But when president Hage Geingob took office in 2015, he
borrowed money and went on a spending spree, greatly expanding the
public sector, with a huge wage bill for 100,000 civil servants.
Geingob has also taken on billions of dollars in debt from China,
where the terms of the deal are being kept secret, raising fears of
yet one more Chinese debt trap.

Namibia has been hit with other problems. A drought across southern
Africa has been disastrous for the Namibian economy. The fishing
industry has suffered due to overfishing and depletion of fish stocks.
The mining industry suffered because of the fall in the prices of
minerals, particular uranium, which Namibia relies on.

So Geingob is going to solve all of Namibia's economic problems by
confiscating the farmland from productive people who produce food for
people to eat, and give the farms to his cronies who don't have a
clue. Sounds like a great plan. Namibian (21-Sep) and The Villager (Namibia, 24-Sep) and Deutsche Welle (1-Feb) and Namibian (14-Sep)

****
**** Brief generational history of Namibia
****

Archeological evidence shows that people inhabited Namibia for at
least 25,000 years. Little was known about life there until the
colonists arrived and started writing things down. The first known
European to visit Namibia was the Portuguese Diogo Cao in 1485.

The most valuable real estate in Namibia to the colonists was Walvis
Bay, a large deep water port on the Atlantic Ocean. The Dutch
Authority took control of Walvis, and Britain took control of it in
1797.

The Europeans in Namibia lived in relative peace with the dominant
tribe, the Herero, until the "Scramble for Africa" among the European
colonists occurred in the late 1800s. In 1886, Germany and Portugal
negotiated the border between Angola and German South West Africa. By
1890, the German colonists had been a military fort in Windhoek, which
became Namibia's capital city.

Things changed in 1897 when the rinderpest, an ancient plague dating
back to at least Roman times, arrived in South West Africa and
devastated the flocks of cattle owned by the Herero, who depended on
cattle for their livelihood. Many Herero sold their land to the
Germans for a very low price. This situation backfired in 1904, when
there was a Herero uprising against the German colonists, killing over
100 Germans. This triggered a generational crisis war, and genocide
and ethnic cleansing of the Herero.

Another tribe, the Nama, rose up in support of the Herero, but the
Germans rounded them up and sent them to labor camps to work on the
railways. All in all, about 80% of the Herero were killed, and 50% of
the Nama. It's sometimes call the first genocide of the 20th century.
Germany only lost control of South West Africa at the end of World War
I, when the Treaty of Versailles gave control to South Africa.

The Herero have filed a lawsuit in the US against Germany over the
genocide and demanded reparations. Germany acknowledges that a
genocide occurred, but the government denies that it is under any
legal obligation to reparations. Deutsche Welle (28-Jul) and RhinoAfrica and
SAHistory and
HistoryWorld

Related Stories:

• South Africa politics roiled by Trump tweet on killing white farmers (24-Aug-2018)
  
  
• South Africa announces plans for unpaid confiscation of white-owned farms (04-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Moving sharply left, South Africa calls for potentially disastrous land reform (01-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Xenophobic violence - Generational history of South Africa (31-May-2008)
  
  
• South African xenophobic violence echoes 1820s Mfecane Zulu massacre (17-Apr-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Namibia, South Africa, Hage Geingob,
Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila, Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe,
Portugal, Diogo Cao, Walvis Bay, Angola, Windhoek,
Germany, German South West Africa, Scramble for Africa,
Herero, Nama, rinderpest

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 4-Oct-18 World View -- Iran diplomats and sleeper cells arrested in France and across Europe

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran diplomats and sleeper cells arrested in France and across Europe
  
• Iran blamed on the foiled June 30 attack on anti-Iran MEK group
  

****
**** Iran diplomats and sleeper cells arrested in France and across Europe
****


Gouasmi Yahia ®, founder of the Zahra Center France religious association, speaks to reporters after his offices were raided by police on Tuesday (AFP)

On Monday, a German court agreed to extradite Assadollah Assadi, an
Iranian diplomatic, who is accused accused of handing a bomb to the
attackers who were planning a June 30 bombing of a meeting near Paris
of an anti-Iran regime group, the MEK. Although Assadi is based in
Vienna Austria, his actions took place while he was on vacation in
Germany, so the German court stripped him of his diplomatic immunity,
and allowed him to be extradited to Belgium.

Assadi is an Iranian diplomat and intelligence agent. He is accused
of meeting a Belgian husband and wife sleeper cell in Luxembourg,
where he handed them the explosives. The explosives were discovered
in Beligum by Belgian police when they stopped a Mercedes car driven
by the Antwerp-based Iranian couple and found the explosives hidden
inside a toiletries bag. The police took the husband and wife team
into custody, and requested extradition of Assadi from Germany.

The planned target of the June 30 attack was in Villepinte, northeast
of Paris, and another man, accused of being an accomplice, was
arrested in Paris on Monday.

France also seized assets in Paris belonging to Tehran's
intelligence services and the Iranian husband and wife arrested
in Belgium.

A French official said that Iran's deputy minister and director
general of intelligence, Saeid Hashemi Moghadam, had ordered the
attack and Assadollah Asadi, who is still in Germany to be extradicted
to Belgium, had masterminded the plot. According to the official:

<QUOTE>"Behind all this was a long, meticulous and detailed
investigation by our (intelligence) services that enabled us to
reach the conclusion, without any doubt, that responsibility fell
on the Iranian intelligence ministry."<END QUOTE>

However, after Belgium announced on June 30 that they had
foiled the Iranian bombing operation, Iran's foreign minister
Javad Zarif tweeted the following:

<QUOTE>"How convenient. Just as we embark on a presidential
visit to Europe, an alleged Iranian operation and its "plotters"
arrested. Iran unequivocally condemns all violence & terror
anywhere, and is ready to work with all concerned to uncover what
is a sinister false flag ploy. 3:57 PM, Jul 2 2018"<END QUOTE>

Zarav and the Iranians have continued to deny any connection to the
June 30 plot, but Monday's arrests indicate that police in France,
Belgium, Germany and Luxembourg now believe that they've connected the
dots to prove the Iranian terror plot.

On Tuesday, the French government issued the following statement:

<QUOTE>"An attack attempt was foiled in Villepinte [near
Paris] on June 30. This act of extreme severity planned on our
soil could not remain without response. By an October 2, 2018
order from the Minister of State, the Minister of the Interior,
and the Minister of Economy and Finance... France has taken ...
preventative measures by freezing the assets of Iranian nationals
Assadollah Asadi and [Iranian deputy minister of Intelligence in
charge of operations] Saeid Hashemi Moghadam, as well as of the
Directorate of Internal Security of the Iranian Ministry of
Intelligence. In taking this decision, France reiterates its
determination to fight terrorism, especially on its own
soil."<END QUOTE>

On Tuesday, French police raided the al-Zhara mosque in the small town
of Grande-Synthe near Dunkirk in northern France. Police had been
monitoring the activities of the mosque, especially its leader, Yahia
Gouasmi, who is known for anti-Zionist views and ties to Iran,
Hezbollah and Hamas. However, it's not clear whether this arrest is
also related to the June 30 bombing attempt.

This series of arrests across Europe is going to bring Iran-EU
relations, especially Iran-France relations, to a new low. This is
highly significant at a time when Iran is begging the Europeans to
find a way around the US sanctions on Iran that the Trump
administration imposed after withdrawing from the nuclear agreement.
BBC and
The National (UAE) and Deutsche Welle and Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI)

****
**** Iran blamed on the foiled June 30 attack on anti-Iran MEK group
****

The foiled June 30 attack was targeting a meeting of the National
Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), which is the political arm of
the dissident group People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI /
Mujahideen-el-Khalq, MEK), which Iran says is a terrorist organization
-- as did the US State Department from 1997 to 2012.

The MEK was formed in the 1960s to overthrow the Shah of Iran. As I
described in my new book, Iran's Struggle for Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle East, the MEK helped Ruhollah Khomeini
overthrow the Shah in the 1979 Islamic Revolution, but then turned
against Khomeini because he was worse than the Shah.

In July 1988, Khomeini's ordered the massacre of tens of thousands of
political prisoners and political enemies, especially those in the
MEK. He issued this decree:

<QUOTE>"Whoever at any stage continues to belong to the PMOI
must be executed. Annihilate the enemies of Islam immediately!
...Those who are in prisons throughout the country and remain
steadfast in their support for PMOI are waging war on God and are
condemned to execution. ... It is naive to show mercy to those who
wage war on God."<END QUOTE>

It's laughable for Khomeini to compare himself to God. I described in
my book how he did this -- modifying Shia Islam theology by naming
himself to the be modern version of Shia Islam's infallible Imams.
However, the infallible Imam Khomeini used his power to conduct
torture, rape, multilation and slaughter of his political enemies,
including members of the MEK.

In my article on the December protests in Iran,
I listed about 20 of the protests that were being
chanted, many of them quite vicious. These chants were collected and
publicized by MEK activists.

The MEK has remained an anti-government protest organization, and it's
not at all surprising that Iran would sponsor explosions and other
terror attacks on the MEK in Paris and elsewhere. The MEK has been
extremely effect in exposing the hypocrisy of the Iranian regime, and
in encouraging anti-government protests within Iran. Al-Jazeera and AFP and Washington Examiner and Euro News

John J. Xenakis is author of the book, Iran's Struggle for
Supremacy: Tehran's Obsession to Redraw the Map of the Middle
East, available on Amazon for $5 for the digital version or $7 for the paperback version.

Related Articles:

• Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran (30-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Iran's protesters blame bad economy on Supreme Leader, not on US sanctions (08-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Kurdish protesters attack Iran's embassy in Paris (17-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Iran's anti-government protests expand as rial currency plummets (01-Aug-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg,
Iran, Javad Zarif, Assadollah Assadi, Saeid Hashemi Moghadam,
Villepinte, Paris,
Grande-Synthe, Dunkirk, Zahra Center France, Yahia Gouasmi,
National Council of Resistance of Iran, NCRI,
People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, PMOI,
Mujahideen-el-Khalq, MEK, Ruhollah Khomeini

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 5-Oct-18 World View -- As October 25 deadline approaches, Syria's Idlib is set up for a classic Greek tragedy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• As October 25 deadline approaches, Syria's Idlib is set up for a classic Greek tragedy
  
• Turkey and Russia reach an agreement to prevent the Idlib assault
  
• The inevitable clash of the protagonists
  

****
**** As October 25 deadline approaches, Syria's Idlib is set up for a classic Greek tragedy
****


Idlib Syria (AFP)

For months, international observers have been fearing a massive
humanitarian disaster in Syria, as the regime of Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad prepares to launch an attack on Idlib province, the
last stronghold of the opposition rebels, backed by Russia, Iran and
Hezbollah.

The al-Assad regime has already recaptured Aleppo, Ghouta and Daara,
using Vladimir Putin's "Grozny Model," which forces all the women and
children out into the open so that they be slaughtered en
masse. Al-Assad enhanced and upgraded the technique into what we
might call "Grozny Model 2.0," using chlorine gas to force women and
children out of their basement hiding places, and then use Sarin gas
and barrel bombs as needed to slaughter as many as possible.

Many of the civilians and opposition forces in Aleppo, Ghouta and
Daara fled with their families to Idlib province, as possibly the only
safe place left in Syria, with the result that the population of Idlib
province doubled to about 3 million people. Turkey already hosts 3.5
million Syrian refugees, and an assault on Idlib would create a
massive humanitarian problem, with perhaps a million people flooding
across the border into Turkey, and from there into Europe, creating an
international crisis.

Turkey was desperate to stop al-Assad's Idlib assault because it would
be a disaster for Turkey, so Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan
lobbied Putin to cancel the assault. Turkey, Russia and Iran held a
meeting in Tehran on September 7, but Turkey's proposal was rejected
by the other two parties. ( "8-Sep-18 World View -- Turkey fails to prevent Russia and Iran from mass slaughter in Idlib, Syria"
) Reuters and Irin News and Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI)

****
**** Turkey and Russia reach an agreement to prevent the Idlib assault
****

However, on September 17, Erdogan and Putin met in Sochi, and they
reached an agreement:

<QUOTE>"The Republic of Turkey and the Russian Federation, as
guarantors of the observance of the ceasefire regime in the Syrian
Arab Republic, ... in order to stabilize the situation in the
Idlib de-escalation area as soon as possible, have agreed on the
following:

1. The Idlip de-escalation area will be preserved and Turkish
observation posts will be fortified and continue to function.

2. The Russian Federation will take all necessary measures to
ensure that military operations and attacks on Idlib will be
avoided and the existing status quo will be maintained.

3. A demilitarized zone, 15-20 kms deep in the de-escalation area
will be established.

4. The delineation of exact lines of the demilitarised zone will
be determined through further consultations.

5. All radical terrorist groups will be removed from the
demilitarised zone by October 15.

6. All tanks, MLRS, artillery and mortars belonging to conflicting
parties will be withdrawn from the demilitarised zone by October
10, 2018.

7. Turkish Armed Forces and the military police of the Armed
Forces of the Russian Federation will conduct coordinated patrols
and monitoring with UAVs along the boundaries of the demilitarised
zone. ...

8. Transit traffic on the routes M4 (Aleppo-Latakia) and M5
(Aleppo-Hama) will be restored by the end of 2018.

9. Effective measures will be taken for ensuring sustainable
ceasefire regime within the Idlib de-escalation area. In this
regard, the functions of the Joint Iranian-Russian-Turkish
Coordination Center will be enhanced.

10. The two sides reiterated their determination to combat
terrorism in Syria in all forms and manifestations."<END QUOTE>

Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian government were not part of this
agreement, but it has become Russia's responsibility to hold al-Assad
back from launching the assault.

The heart of this agreement is that it places an enormous
responsibility on Turkey. All rebels in the demilitarised zone must
withdraw heavy arms by October 10, and radical groups must leave by
October 15, and Turkey is reponsible for making that happen.
Unfortunately, with only 5 days left until the first deadline, little
has changed on the ground since the September 17 agreement except for
contentious negotiations among the groups in Idlib. There's been
almost no handover of weapons or territory.

Of the 3 million people in Idlib, it's estimated that about 60,000 are
in anti-Assad militias controlling different cities and villages.
Some of the moderate rebel groups have begun withdrawing their forces
and heavy weapons from parts of the buffer zone. But the biggest
jihadi group, the al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which
controls 60% of Idlib, has not yet agreed to withdraw, although it's
still negotiating with Turkey. The National (UAE) and Sputnik News (Moscow)

****
**** The inevitable clash of the protagonists
****

The Greeks invented tragedy, and three of four great tragic artists of
all time were Aeschylus, Sophocles and Euripides of ancient Greece,
with the fourth being Shakespeare. As a Greek, I understand tragedy
very well. The essence of Greek tragedy is that the tragic event it
not random, but is inevitable, because of the nature, the personality,
the character of the protagonists. A true tragedy cannot be
prevented, even by those who foresee it, because the forces bringing
about the tragedy are too powerful for anyone to stop.

We can see those powerful forces in Syria today.

First we have Bashar al-Assad, a psychopathic monster and a member of
the Shia/Alawite community in Syria, a group that has had many wars
with Sunni Arabs, including Turks. Al-Assad has repeatedly made it
clear that he considers all Sunni's in Idlib, even the women and
children, to be terrorists who much be exterminated like cockroaches.
Al-Assad is the most Shakespearean of the protagonists in that he's
driven to commit a bigger genocide than his father, Hafez al-Assad.

Reports indicate that the al-Assad regime has been massing its army on
the border with Idlib. Putin has been holding al-Assad back from
assaulting Idlib, and al-Assad is looking for any excuse to attack.
If the agreement deadlines pass and Turkey has not completed its
tasks, then al-Assad will have the excuse he needs.

Second, we have Russia's president Vladimir Putin. I don't get the
feeling that Putin has any particular animus against either side in
Syria. He seems to view the war in Syria the same way that Henry David Thoreau watched in astonishment the war between the two armies,
one army of red ants
and another army of black ants.

Instead of ethnic animus, Putin seems to be have an entirely different
kind of motive for supporint al-Assad. Russia was completely shut out
of the Mideast in the 1990s after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Now, for the first time in decades, Russia has two military bases in
the Mideast -- the Tartus naval base, and the Hmeimim airbase, both of
them in Syria, in return for supporting al-Assad.

So Russia is holding al-Assad back for now, but when the dam breaks
and the Syrian army pours into Idlib, Russia will support al-Assad in
order to continue to control the two military bases.

And the third major protagonist is Turkey's president Erdogan.
Al-Assad and Erdogan share a deep vitriolic hatred of each other, as
do their respective populations. Erdogan truly wants to prevent
al-Assad's assault on Idlib because it will be a disaster for Turkey.

Iran is like Russia, having little vitriolic hatred for either side in
Syria, but wanting to establish an overland route from Iran through
Baghdad through Damascus to the Mediterranean Sea. For that, Iran is
supporting al-Assad.

Hezbollah is like a mindless puppet, where Iran is the puppetmaster.
Hezbollah will do whatever Iran tells it to do.

There are also lesser forces in Syria, including the United States and
Saudi Arabia. They play their parts in support of one group or
another, but they're subordinate to Syria, Russia and Turkey.

One day soon, all of these forces will clash and the inevitable final
act of the Greek tragedy will begin.
Al Jazeera and Digital Journal and Deutsche Welle and Al Jazeera


Related Articles:

• Turkey scores diplomatic victory, as Russia backs down from Idlib assault in Syria (18-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Syria and Russia prepare to inflict massive bloodbath on Idlib (05-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Russia demands that US and EU pay to rebuild Syria (23-Aug-2018)
  
  
• US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Book review review: Christopher Hitchens: 'God Is Not Great: How Religion Poisons Everything' (II) (03-Jun-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Idlib, Bashar al-Assad,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Grozny Model, Aleppo, Ghouta, Daara,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Iran, Hezbollah,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS,
Aeschylus, Sophocles, Euripides, Shakespeare, Hafez al-Assad,
Henry David Thoreau, Tartus naval base, Hmeimim airbase

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

More globalist propaganda you've posted here; the battle of Idlib would actually be analogous to the battle of the Fuhrerbunker rather than the Warsaw Ghetto. Good is triumphing over Islamist evil and barbarism.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 6-Oct-18 World View -- China's spy chip attacks shock the computer industry

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China's spy chip attacks shock the computer industry
  
• Industry reactions to China's spy chips
  
• Google is repeating the mistakes that IBM made in helping the Nazis
  

****
**** China's spy chip attacks shock the computer industry
****


How China's attack worked (Bloomberg)

The announcement this week by Bloomberg News that an investigation has
found that China is installing backdoor chips on server motherboards
is making the public aware of a major security issue that will affect
a wide variety of electronic products, from iPhones to televisions to
automobile components.

The attack worked as follows:

• Chinese factories manufactured motherboards to be used in
  computer servers. If you open a desktop computer, you can see the
  motherboard inside -- a large board covered with chips for the CPU
  (microprocessor), computer memory, display processing, graphics
  processing, disk interface, USB interface, network interface, and so
  forth.
  
  
• The Chinese factories added one more chip to the motherboard: a
  tiny chip designed by China's military, with its own private memory,
  processing power, and networking. The chip was so tiny that you
  probably wouldn't notice it unless you were looking for it.
  
  
• A San Jose based American company called Super Micro Computer Inc.
  purchased these Chinese motherboards in quantity, and installed them
  into servers.
  
  
• Supermicro sold the infected servers to dozens of customers, who
  are using them in their data centers. There are at least 30
  companies, including Apple, Amazon, Facebook, a major bank, and
  government contractors.
  
  
• Once the server's power is turned on, the Chinese military chip is
  activated, and communicates with China's military, ready to receive
  commands to take control of the server, or to steal data from
  networked databases.

Apple and Amazon initially denied they were victims of this attack,
but apparently later confirmed that they were.

China's foreign ministry denied that they would ever do such a thing,
but said that they were victims of such attacks themselves.

These revelations have exposed only a tiny part of the problem, which
is being described as the "supply chain problem." These days, any
electronic device contains chips and components from many sources, and
those components themselves may be made up of chips from many sources.
A complex electronic device might contain over 100 chips, sourced from
different locations. If just one of those chips has been infected by
China's military, then the entire device could be compromised. As
soon as the device is turned on, then the malware chip "calls home" to
the Chinese military, which then has access to the entire device,
whether it's an iPhone or a helicopter. Bloomberg and Bloomberg and Krebs on Security and Mashable

****
**** Industry reactions to China's spy chips
****

For months, American intelligence agencies have been advising
Americans not to do business with Chinese chip manufacturers Huawei Technologies Co. or ZTE Corp.

China goes out of its way to tempt Americans to buy their products, by
offering a lot of features and setting very low prices. The Chinese
undoubtedly lose money on these sales, but the sales support a
national effort for China to control as many American electronic
devices as possible, for future warfare.

As a Senior Software Development, I've developed embedded operating
systems for chips, and I personally know how easy it would be for the
Chinese to implement this policy. Huawei could develop a chipset that
works fine during tests, but Huawei could install a "backdoor" into
the chipset. When the chip receives, say, a secret 1024-bit code,
then it will execute commands sent to it by China's military. Thus,
the Chinese are then in control of any devices with Huawei or ZTE
chips. This is not only doable, it's easy to do. The "backdoor"
could not be detected until an attack had been launched, and then it
would be too late. So there's never been any doubt in my mind that
China COULD do this, and if China CAN do it, then they WILL do it,
because they've engaged every part of the nation to prepare for war
with the United States.

That's a different kind of situation than the one that's been revealed
this week. In this week's case, the hacking was done not by
"invisible" software, but by a visible but tiny piece of hardware.

SecurityWeek took a survey of reactions by security experts to the
announcement of China's spy chips, and what was remarkable is that no
one was the least surprised.

Sanjay Beri, CEO, Netskope, said: "Chinese cyber infiltration is
nothing new, as proven by ongoing recent attacks from elite Chinese
institutions diligently working to gain access to assets from the
west."

Itzik Kotler, CTO and Co-Founder, SafeBreach, said: "Like many recent
attacks, this is low-level, stealthy, and widespread. The combination
of these three makes it especially frightening at first, and it
certainly is rare to see such an attack in the wild."

Rick Moy, Chief Marketing Officer at Acalvio said: "While there’s a
lot of denial about the attacks, it’s completely plausible that China
did in fact seed certain hardware with these backdoor chips. One can
imagine the liabilities that firms would rather not take on by
admitting this kind of a breach. However, it is entirely within the
capabilities and mission scope of nation state intel armies to
infiltrate supply chains in this way."

Joseph Carson, chief security scientist at Thycotic said: "We are one
step away from a major cyber conflict or retaliation that could result
in serious implications. This could be one of the biggest hacks in
history. What is clear is that it is a government behind this cyber
espionage and I believe it is compromised employees with privileged
access that are acting as malicious insiders selecting specific
targets so the supply chain has been victim of being compromised."

Malcolm Harkins, Chief Security and Trust Officer, Cylance:
Unfortunately the only surprising element about this attack is that
it’s taken so long to be uncovered in a report." Security Week

****
**** Google is repeating the mistakes that IBM made in helping the Nazis
****

In the late 1930s, Thomas Watson, the founder of IBM Corp. had to
decide whether to sell Hollerith card tabulating equipment to the
German Nazis, at a time when they were persecuting Jews and even
dropping bombs on London. Nominally, the equipment was to be used to
count things like cars and cows, but it was obvious that it could also
be used to count Jews. Watson did business with the Nazis even during
the war, and helped the Nazis with the Holocaust.

Now Google appears to be making the same mistake with China.

Google recently announced it would help the Department of Defense with
AI technology, even for purely defensive purposes.

At the same time, Google announced a major new Google AI research
center in China. “I believe AI and its benefits have no borders” said
Dr. Fei-Fei Li, Chief Scientist at Google Cloud. Well that's a lie.
Google's AI technology will only be used outside the United States
border, and inside China's border.

China is preparing for war with the United States, and has developed
numerous weapons systems with no other purpose than to attack American
cities, bases and aircraft carriers. Google is willing to provide AI
technology to China that can be used in these weapons to attack the
United States, but refuses to allow the U.S. to use its AI technology
to defend itself from China's weapons. That's verging on treason.

China's persecution of the Uighurs and Tibetans in China is worse than
the Nazi persecution of the Jews. Recent reports indicate that over a
million Uighurs are imprisoned in reeducation camps. AI software
provides facial recognition capabilities that permit China to track
the movements of all Uighurs in Xinjiang province (or other Chinese
citizens) for arrest or persecution.

My guess is that during the 1930s it was young German-Americans who
promoted selling IBM technology to the Nazis. Today, with Google
located in Silicon Valley, it's probably young Chinese who are
promoting selling AI technology to the Chinese military, but opposing
its sale to the U.S. military. These Chinese workers will certainly
come to grief for this betrayal of America. Guardian (London, 29-Mar-2002) and Atlantic (April 2014) and Task and Purpose (19-Jun) and The Verge

Related Articles:

• Trump blocks Broadcom acquisition of Qualcomm over national security (14-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Huawei scandal exposes potential 'Cyberwar Pearl Harbor' from China (14-Oct-2012)
  
  
• New report reveals massive cyber war attack by China's army (20-Feb-2013)
  
  
• Major defense contractor QinetiQ hacked for years by China (06-May-2013)
  
  
• American businesses debate cyber counter-attack on China (13-Mar-2013)
  
  
• Discussion of China's directive to 'Get Ready for War' (21-Jan-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Super Micro Computer Inc.,
Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Huawei Technologies, ZTE Corp.,
IBM, Thomas Watson, Germany, Nazis, Google, Fei-Fei Li,
Uighurs, Tibetans

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

Gee -- so if I have a ZTE cell phone, should I get rid of it? I use it exclusively for phone calls and as a camera.

[John J. Xenakis]

(10-06-2018, 11:13 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Gee -- so if I have a ZTE cell phone, should I get rid of it? I
> use it exclusively for phone calls and as a camera.

Back in ancient historical times (April 2018), intelligence agencies
advised against buying Huawei or ZTE products because they could be
compromised by China's military. Then ZTE was almost completely put
out of business for a completely different reason, having to do with
violations of US sanctions against Iran, and then continuing the
violations after committing not to do it again. Trump intervened to
save ZTE, saying that he was doing so because of a personal request
from Xi Jinping. So ZTE is still alive today.

However, that's a completely separate issue from whether
your ZTE phone is compromised by a chip compromised by China's
military. There's certainly a possibility that it is.

If you want my personal opinion, I would not panic and throw the phone
into the garbage pail, but I would look for an opportunity in the next
few months to get a non-Chinese phone, and replace the Chinese phone
in an orderly fashion. In the meantime, I would not keep any
data on the phone that you think that the Chinese would like to hack.

And I say this as someone whose web site (GenerationalDynamics.com)
has been under almost continuous attack by the Chinese for almost ten
years now, mainly because of articles like the one that I posted
today.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 7-Oct-18 World View -- Zimbabweans on panic buying spree as 'bond notes' crash

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Shops in Zimbabwe have bare shelves after panic buying
  
• Bond note currently on the path to inflation or hyperinflation
  

****
**** Shops in Zimbabwe have bare shelves after panic buying
****


Zimbabwe Bond Note

Shops in Zimbabwe have bare shelves as people, fearing a new round of
hyperinflation like the one in the 2000s decade, are panic buying
beer, bread, cooking oil, and other essentials.

Pharmacies have run out of medication for diabetic patients, high
blood pressure patients. There are long queues of cars at petrol
stations, with drivers hoping to get petrol before the station runs
out.

The panic was triggered when Zimbabwe's "bond note" currency crashed
to 2.5 bond notes to the dollar, at the end of a week when the
government imposed a new 2% tax on all electronic transactions. The
result all week was protests and panic over the price increases and
shortages of goods.

Zimbabwe's central bank governor on Saturday John Mangudya blamed
himself for the panic:

<QUOTE>"The problem is that we did not explain things. This
economy is a sentiment driven economy so we need to communicate
more with the society."<END QUOTE>

Mangudya, told reporters that people should not be worried and that he
expected an improvement in the next 48 hours.

At the same time, there is a new cholera epidemic in Zimbabwe, and 49
people have died so far. Independent Online (South Africa) and Reuters and Eyewitness News (South Africa

****
**** Bond note currently on the path to inflation or hyperinflation
****

Readers may recall that in 2016 then-president Robert Mugabe
introduced a new currency called the "bond note." Each bond note
would be worth exactly one US dollar. This was necessary because
Zimbabwe's banks were running out of US dollars with with to purchase
imports.

In the 1990s, Zimbabwe used to be the breadbasket of southern Africa,
growing much more food than the country needed and exporting the rest.
Then in 1999 Robert Mugabe instituted a "land reform" plan just like
the one that South Africa and Namibia are planning are now planning
confiscating white-owned farms and giving them to his cronies in the
Shona tribe who knew nothing about farming. Within ten years,
Zimbabwe was an economic disaster, with mass starvation, a worthless
currency, and massive million percent inflation.

By 2009 the Zimbabwe currency was more worthless than toilet paper,
and so the US dollar became the official currency. But Mugabe
continued with his destructive racist policies, and by December 2016,
Zimbabwe was running out of US dollars. So Mugabe introduced the bond note,
with each bond note worth
$1.00.

This cause large street demonstrations by Zimbabwe's public, because
they knew that the bond notes would suffer the same inflation or
hyperinflation that Zimbabwe's original currency did. But Mugabe
promised that wouldn't happen, since no more than $200 million in bond
notes would ever be printed, so hyperinflation was impossible.

During 2017, Zimbabwe's central bank printed more and more bond notes,
and by August 2017, the value of the bond note fell 50% compared to
the US dollar. The central bank announced that it would print another
$300 million in bond notes, bringing the bond note total up to $500
million, or half a billion.

Since then, Robert Mugabe has been ousted, and has been sent to his
palatial farm, where he has plenty of money at his disposal. Zimbabwe
now has a new president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, who is left to clean up
the 40-year mess that Mugabe left behind. So far, things have only
gotten worse. Maybe the Chinese will give him some money if he sells
them a part of the country. Daily News (Zimbabwe) and Bulawayo24 (Zimbabwe) and News24 (South Africa, 3-Aug-2017) and eNews Channel Africa

Related Articles:

• Zimbabwe's post-election violence raises concerns about economy (04-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Zimbabwe bans food imports as new 'bond note' currency crashes (21-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Venezuela's currency becomes worthless, as Zimbabwe introduces new currency (08-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Zimbabwe launching a Soviet style command agriculture program (20-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Puerto Rico - three amigos in Marxist economic destruction (01-Jul-2016)
  
  
• 'Liberation Hero' Robert Mugabe now destroys Zimbabwe with cholera (08-Dec-2008)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Zimbabwe, bond notes,
John Mangudya, Robert Mugabe, Shona, Emmerson Mnangagwa

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 8-Oct-18 World View -- Suspicious disappearance of Saudi journalist in Turkey threatens to upset Mideast relations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Suspicious disappearance of Saudi journalist in Turkey threatens to upset Mideast relations
  
• Khashoggi incident threatens Saudi relationship with the West
  

****
**** Suspicious disappearance of Saudi journalist in Turkey threatens to upset Mideast relations
****


The Saudi consulate in Istanbul on Sunday (AP)

Turkey's media are now saying with increasing certainty that that the
Saudi journalist who visited the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on
Tuesday and never came out was murdered by the Saudis and that his
body was removed by a group of 12 Saudi officials.

The sequence of events was as follow. Jamal Khashoggi, 59, is a Saudi
journalist who writes for the Washington Post, and who has been
increasingly critical of Saudi's participation in the war in Yemen,
and of the human rights record of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman, who has been running the country since 2015. Fearing for his
life, Khashoggi has lived in self-imposed exile in the United States
for the last year.

On September 28, he visited the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to get
marriage documents related to his planned marriage to his fiancé, a
Turkish citizen, Hatice (Khadija) Cengiz. On Tuesday of last week,
October 2, he returned to the consulate. Before entering the
consulate, he told his fiancé, who was going to wait in the car, that
if he wasn't out within 20 minutes, she should alert the Turkish
authorities.

He didn't come out, and she raised the alarm. The situation reached
the top diplomatic levels between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Saudi
Arabia claimed that Khashoggi had left the embassy without anyone
noticing. Turkey's forensic analysis examined all the CCTV footage
for the consulate entrances and exits, for the area around the
consulate, and at the airport, and could find no sign of Khashoggi.

On Sunday, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan called Khashoggi a
"journalist and a friend," and said,

<QUOTE>"God willing, we will not be faced with an undesirable
situation we do not want. His fiancé hopes the same. Whatever
comes of this, we will be the ones to declare it to the world. It
is very, very upsetting for us that it happened in our
country."<END QUOTE>

However, according to media reports, Turkish officials are
increasingly convinced that the Saudis killed Khashoggi.
Investigation revealed that on Tuesday morning, the day when Khashoggi
was scheduled to return to the consulate, 12 Saudi officials arrived
in Istanbul in two private jets, and went to the consulate. Shortly
after Khashoggi entered the consulate, never to be seen again, the 12
Saudi officials returned to the airport and flew back to Saudi Arabia.

Turkish officials reportedly believe that those 12 Saudi officials
killed Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, and then
transported his dead body back to Saudi Arabia.

The president of Turk-Arab Media Association, Turan Kislakci, said on
Sunday that his organization has confirmed through multiple sources
that Khashoggi was murdered:

<QUOTE>"There is evidence that he was murdered. We initially
thought Jamal Khashoggi was kept at the guest house [at the
consulate] and that he was taken out afterwards. However, we have
confirmed through multiple sources that he was killed. The details
will be explained."<END QUOTE>

However, a Saudi official is saying that the Turkish accusations are
"baseless," and that a team of Saudi investigators will take part in
the investigation.

In addition, Saudi media are claiming that the woman named "Khadijah"
is "promoting herself as Jamal’s fiancé," but is not known to Jamal's
family and she is not his fiancé.
Hurriyet (Turkey) and Globe Post (Turkey) and Washington Post and Saudi Gazette

****
**** Khashoggi incident threatens Saudi relationship with the West
****

The Turks are furious at this, and if it's true that the Saudis
performed an assassination of a journalist on Turkish soil, then they
expect to treat it as a major international incident.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia relations are already at a deep low.

Recall that in June of last year, several Arab states, including Saudi
Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt and United Arab Emirates (UAE), broke relations
with Qatar and imposed an air, sea and land blockade on Qatar.
Amazingly enough, that blockade is
still in place. International attempts at mediation have failed, and
the rhetoric has, if anything, gotten worse.

From the beginning, Turkey has been highly critical of the blockade,
and has helped Qatar by sending troops to Qatar in support, and by
increasing trade with Qatar, circumventing the blockade.

Saudi Arabia has made a number of demands on Qatar to end the crisis.
These include ending all relationships with Iran and Turkey, ending
support for the Muslim Brotherhood, and shutting down al-Jazeera,
which has been highly critical of Saudi Arabia -- things that are
never going to happen.

In the current febrile atmosphere in the Mideast, the Khashoggi
incident could have larger implications. It could cause the US and
Europe to reevaluate their relationships with Saudi Arabia, and with
Turkish officials so enraged by this, it could trigger a more serious
response. Al-Jazeera and France 24 and Al Monitor and AFP

Related Articles

• Egypt calls Qatar an 'enemy state' (30-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations cut ties with Qatar in new Mideast crisis (06-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia threatens further sanctions against Qatar if demands are not met (04-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Trump's Mideast visit triggers renewal of sharp split between Saudi Arabia and Qatar (26-May-2017)
  
  
• Donald Trump promises to solve the Gulf crisis 'fairly easily' (13-Sep-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Istanbul, Saudi Arabia,
Jamal Khashoggi, Hatice (Khadija) Cengiz,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Mohammed bin Salman, Turan Kislakci,
Bahrain, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, UAE, Qatar

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

It troubles me when President Trump says that he can solve any international problem 'easily'. I have never heard any President (going back to Johnson) claim to have an easy solution for any international crisis. Sometimes the best solution is to let things go as they are likely to, as with the elder Bush with the anti-Communist revolutions in central and Balkan Europe in 1989. But that required some honest assessment of each national situation.

"Easy" is for amateurs, drudges, and suckers.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-Oct-18 World View -- UN: We have just 12 years to prevent global warming catastrophe

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• UN: We have just 12 years to prevent global warming catastrophe
  
• Fallacies in the climate change story
  
• Fallacy #1 in climate change story: Ignoring war
  
• Fallacy #2 in climate change story: Technology
  

****
**** UN: We have just 12 years to prevent global warming catastrophe
****


China's largest open-pit coal mine is in Inner Mongolia, and is estimated to contain 1.7 billion tons of coal. It has an estimated life of 75 years. (MiningGlobal)

According to a new report issued on Monday by the United Nations
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), climate change
scientists are saying that the world is approaching climate change
catastrophe much faster than climate change scientists have said in
the past.

In the past, the climate change scientists were saying that the
temperature of the earth would increase by 3 degrees by 2100, if
nothing changes. They said in the past that we have to cut carbon
emissions so that the temperature of the earth would only increase by
2 degrees. But according to Monday's report, even a 2 degree increase
leads to world catastrophe.

Typical media headlines read, "UN report on global warming carries
life-or-death warning" and "Planet has only until 2030 to stem
catastrophic climate change, experts warn" and "Trump ‘poses the
single greatest threat’ to our climate, bombshell UN report makes
clear."

What to do? What to do? The BBC World Service interviewed Christiana
Figueres, a Costa Rican diplomat, a key architect of the 2015 Paris
climate change agreement. Figueres was asked what people should do
now, and she listed "four things that we all can do":

• Give up eating meat. "The production of animals leads to
  climate change."
  
  
• Transport: use public transportation, or walk or ride a bike.
  "Transport is a huge emitter of greehouse gases. and we all need to
  make a better job at that."
  
  
• Investors: you have a "huge responsibility" to invest in
  supporting low carbon products and services.
  
  
• Politics: You can vote for politicians that suppport climate
  change.

I wonder if it ever occurs to anyone at the United Nations how
ridiculous and incompetent it looks to have this spokesman making
these truly idiotic statements. Nobody's going to give up meat
because this lady says so. Nobody's going to give up their cars for
her.

Donald Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Treaty because,
among other things, it allows China, the biggest polluter in the
world, to continue polluting, while imposing enormous financial
burdens on the United States and Western Nations.

The principal purpose of the Climate Change Treaty is to specify money
payments from "developed countries," like the United States, to
"developing countries" like Costa Rica. Christiana Figueres is a
Costa Rican diplomat, so we can assume that Costa Rica will benefit
financially from the treaty, and she may even personally benefit
financially from the treaty, and we can assume that's why she supports
it. United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and CNN and Vox and Mining Global

****
**** Fallacies in the climate change story
****

Climate change treaty supporters like to claim that anyone
who disagrees with them is denying established facts.

So let's assume that all the climate change assumptions are true:

• Global warming is occurring.
  
• Global warming is caused by increased carbon emissions.
  
• Increated carbon emissions are caused by human activity.
  
• If nothing changes, then the earth's temperature will increase by
  3 degrees by 2100.

Let's assume that all of this is true. Then there are still
major fallacies in the climate change argument.

There are two major flaws in the climate change argument that I've
pointed out on several cases to climate change advocates. They do not
make any attempt to respond, but all these people just blow me off.

If they had a response, they would respond. By just ignoring
me or blowing me off, they prove that they don't have a response.

****
**** Fallacy #1 in climate change story: Ignoring war
****

The climate change scientists say that if nothing changes,
then the earth's temperature will increase by 3 degrees.
We're assuming that's true, but the climate change scientists
are failing to take into account things that will certainly change.

First, there's war. There were two world wars in the last century, as
well as numerous other massive wars (Russian civil war, Spanish civil
war, Cambodian civil war, Rwandan genocide, etc.) on every continent,
and in every region.

The 20th century was not unique. In every century for millennia,
there have been massive wars on every continent in every region, such
as China's Taiping rebellion, Africa's Mfecane, India's sepoy
rebellion, the 30 years war, 100 years war, and so forth.

It's 100% certain that there will be massive wars, including one or
two world wars, before 2100. A world war in the 21st century will
kill 20-50% of the population, through nuclear war, ground war,
starvation and disease. Since we're assuming that carbon emissions
are caused by human activities, that means that carbon emissions will
be reduced by 20-50%.

When I ask climate change scientists about this, they just blow me
off.

Climate change scientists won't even consider this, but it completely
blows away their theories. If you don't believe me, then ask them
about it, and see them duck the question.

****
**** Fallacy #2 in climate change story: Technology
****

There are probably hundreds of thousands of companies, big and small,
around the world, developing solutions to carbon emissions, because
everyone knows that a working solution will make billions of dollars.
In the United States, emissions are down to their lowest point since
1991, thanks to many new technologies, including everything from
fracking to better windmills to better batteries. Climate change
scientists can't stand to even think about new technologies, because
it blows all their theories out of the water.

Several years ago, when thousands of East Anglia e-mail messages by
climate change scientists were hacked, I did a search for the word
"Singularity," and it never appeared once. You'd think that these
scientists would have at least asked one another, "Hey, what about the
Singularity?" But apparently it was such a forbidden subject that it
couldn't be mentioned.

Even if you've decided that the Singularity won't occur, there will
still be nanotechnologies, materials technologies, advanced artificial
intelligence algorithms, and lots of new technologies that will tackle
the emission problem.

So go ahead and ask climate change scientists how new technologies
will affect their climate change predictions. What they'll answer is:
Climate change is 100% certain, and world war is 100% impossible, and
new technologies are irrelevant. Once again, you'd have to be a
complete idiot to believe that.

At the start, I said we would assume that all the climate change
scientist conclusions are true, including the one that says that if
nothing changes, then the earth's temperature will increase by 3%.

Well, we've identified two changes that are 100% certain, and will
affect their conclusions: technology and war. Here's a riddle: How do
you make a climate change scientist run for his life? Answer: Ask him
about war and technology.


Related Articles

• Climate change conference collapses as China backs down from emission commitments (12-May-2018)
  
  
• UN Climate Change conference appears to be ending in farce (14-Dec-2007)
  
  
• African leaders once again furious that they won't get a climate change bonanza (18-Nov-2017)
  
  
• 175 countries sign farcical climate change agreement (23-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Artificial Intelligence and Climate Change (29-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Horse manure and climate change (23-Sep-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, climate change, Christiana Figueres, Costa Rica

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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[pbrower2a]

Well, inundation of prime farmland -- much of it in alluvial plains near sea level -- will displace hundreds of millions of peasant farmers, turning hundreds of people from food-producers into food-takers. A country like China depends upon them to feed its people... where do such people go? Almost as important, what happens to the food supply and to the population that already exists?

Every social order ultimately depends upon the reliability of the food supply. Armies cease fighting when their food stores are gone or their ammunition runs out (which usually go together). Besieged cities surrender when the food runs out after food supplies are cut off even if cities are natural fortresses. There is no defense against hunger. It is telling that Japan surrendered in 1945 when much went catastrophically wrong at once, but a system that depended upon food imported by ship to replace what young men then in military service could no longer sow or harvest died as the American blockade stopped food-loaded ships from reaching the Japanese mainland. Japan surrendered just in time for returning soldiers to harvest the rice crop. Japan averted famine then nigh.

The Confederate States of America withered because its agricultural laborers (mostly slaves) voted with their feet against slavery by going to areas liberated from slavery.

Note also that many of the world's largest cities are on or near shorelines. Some of the most expensive property in the world will be rendered worthless. An advancing sea will expropriate property as effectively as Commies could dream of doing.

People will be pitted against each other in places that don't get inundated. Just because the seas do not reach such places as Chicago, Dallas, Paris, Munich, Moscow, and Kiev does not mean that there will be no struggles over them. People do not submit to death by hunger easily, and they will need living accommodations.

The Crisis of 2020 may not be about climate change, but that of 2100 could well be -- and it won't be pretty.

[John J. Xenakis]

(10-08-2018, 02:32 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > It troubles me when President Trump says that he can solve any
> international problem 'easily'. I have never heard any President
> (going back to Johnson) claim to have an easy solution for any
> international crisis. Sometimes the best solution is to let things
> go as they are likely to, as with the elder Bush with the
> anti-Communist revolutions in central and Balkan Europe in
> 1989. But that required some honest assessment of each national
> situation.

> "Easy" is for amateurs, drudges, and suckers.

I see that you still are unable to distinguish between words and
deeds.

[pbrower2a]

(10-09-2018, 12:11 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(10-08-2018, 02:32 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: >   It troubles me when President Trump says that he can solve any
>   international problem 'easily'. I have never heard any President
>   (going back to Johnson) claim to have an easy solution for any
>   international crisis. Sometimes the best solution is to let things
>   go as they are likely to, as with the elder Bush with the
>   anti-Communist revolutions in central and Balkan Europe in
>   1989. But that required some honest assessment of each national
>   situation.

>   "Easy" is for amateurs, drudges, and suckers.  

I see that you still are unable to distinguish between words and
deeds.

Competent and honest people, to the extent possible, make their words and deeds align. Fools and liars allow a chasm between the two.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Oct-18 World View -- China aids Venezuela as inflation rate exceeds one million percent

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China aids Venezuela as inflation rate exceeds one million percent
  
• Venezuela migration crisis continues to grow
  

****
**** China aids Venezuela as inflation rate exceeds one million percent
****


During his televised speech last year, Maduro grabs an empanada (a rich pastry) from his desk drawer when he thinks the cameras are off, while most of his people are starving (Caracas Chronicle)

In mid-August, Nicolás Maduro, president of the Socialist government
of Venezuela, announced a new package of economic reforms that were
supposed to stop the country's slide into economic disaster. ( "19-Aug-18 World View -- Socialist Venezuela introduces new fantasy currency and new Socialist changes"
)

At that time, Maduro said:

<QUOTE>"I want the country to recover and I have the
formula. Trust me."<END QUOTE>

To the surprise of few if any people, his "formula" has only
sped up the economic disaster.

The first part of Maduro's formula was to devalue the bolivar currency
by 96%, and then introduce a new currency, the Bolivar Soberano
("sovereign bolivar"). Well, that doesn't seem to have stopped
inflation.

There are no longer any official Venezuelan government figures on
inflation, because the figures were so embarrassing to the Socialists
there, they decided to stop publishing them three years ago. So the
opposition congress has been computing its own figures, and
publishing them.

According to opposition legislator Angel Alvarado, daily inflation is
now 4%, which comes to 1.7 million percent per year. During the past
year, prices rose a mere 488,865%, but the inflation rate continues to
accelerate.

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued its own
estimate of Venezuela's inflation rate, saying that it would rise 1.4
million percent in 2018, and up to 10 million percent in 2019.

The second part of Maduro's magic formula was to raise the minimum
wage by 3000%. Maduro has raised the minimum wage 24 times since
2013. I always have to blink my eyes in disbelief when I read stuff
like this, since apparently Maduro and his Socialist acolytes are too
stupid to understand that when you increase wages then you increase
inflation proportionately. So that's one more reason why the
inflation rate increase has been accelerating.

But it's worse than that, in this case. Within a month it
was clear that the minimum wage increase was causing an additional
economic disaster: Few companies or shops were able to pay the
increased minimum wage, so massive numbers of people lost
their jobs.

In September, Maduro paid a visit to Xi Jinping in Beijing,
and apparently came back home to Caracas with a lifeline.

China agreed to invest an additional $5 billion, and the investment
would boost oil production, and nearly double its oil exports to
China. "We are taking the first steps into a new economic era," said
Maduro. Reuters and Reuters and Bloomberg (19-Sep) and Al Jazeera (19-Sep)

****
**** Venezuela migration crisis continues to grow
****

Some six million people have fled from Syria since the
war began in 2011, and that's currently the worst migration crisis
in the world. The second worst is the Venezuelan crisis, where
some 2.3 million Venezuelans have fled from the Socialist paradise.

Unable to feed their children or provide medicines for illnesses, or
running from violence, there are 4,000 more Venezuelans crossing the
border into Colombia each day. Colombia has called for a regional
response, saying the migrant crisis was costing it about 0.5% of GDP –
around $1.5m. Thousands travel on to Ecuador, Peru, Chile, Mexico,
Brazil, This has placed an enormous financial burder on neighboring
countries, and many have been closing their borders. The migrants are
willing to work for little pay, and so they take the jobs of each
country's citizens, further destabilizing the region. UNHCR and Guardian (London) and Merco Press and Fair Observer

Related Articles:

• Socialist Venezuela introduces new fantasy currency and new Socialist changes (19-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Hugo Chávez dismantled Venezuela's businesses on purpose to create Socialist Paradise (29-May-2016)
  
  
• Colombia's president Ivan Duque takes office amidst accusations from Venezuela (12-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Socialist Venezuela's state-owned PDVSA oil company near total collapse (21-Apr-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, Nicolás Maduro,
Angel Alvarado, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Chile, empanada

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Oct-18 World View -- Bangladesh continues plans to relocate 100,000 Rohingya refugees to Bhasan Char island

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Bangladesh continues plans to relocate 100,000 Rohingya refugees to Bhasan Char island
  
• The island of Bhasan Char - 'floating island' - rose from the sea 20 years ago
  

****
**** Bangladesh continues plans to relocate 100,000 Rohingya refugees to Bhasan Char island
****


Bhasan Char island (Reuters)

Bangladesh last week again postponed plans to begin relocating 100,000
Rohingyas from refugee camps on the Burma (Myanmar) border to the
remote island of Bhasan Char in the Sea of Bengal, about an hour's
boat trip from the mainland. However, planning and implementation is
continuing, and a new start date announcement is expected soon.

Today, there are over one Rohingyas living in refugee camps near Cox's
Bazar in Bangladesh -- the world's largest population of stateless
people, not citizens of Burma, not citizens of Bangladesh. The
Buddhists in Myanmar have been incredibly successful in committing
almost complete genocide and ethnic cleansing, though they're still in
second place this century, behind the genocide and ethnic cleansing
being committed by Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Since 2011, Burma's mostly Buddhist security forces have been
committing mass atrocities on mostly Muslim ethnic Rohingyas living in
Rakhine State, in what the United Nations says is "a textbook example
of ethnic cleansing," and which some Western governments are calling
genocide. The atrocities by Buddhist security forces include gang
rape, violent torture, execution-style killings and the razing of
entire villages, in a scorched earth campaign. Myanmar's genocide is
reminiscent of the Buddhist on Buddhist genocide that occurred in
Cambodia in the late 1970s, under Pol Pot. Burmese Buddhist leader
Aung San Suu Kyi has become the 21st century Pol Pot.

In August 2017, Rohingya terrorists took revenge by killing several
Burmese security forces in attacks against 30 Burmese police outputs.
Using this attack as an excuse, the Buddhist Burmese army began
conducting massive slaughter and atrocities against the Rohingyas,
causing hundreds of thousands to flee across the border into
Bangladesh.

The refugee camps around Cox's Bazar have been extremely crowded, and
are subject to large mudslides during monsoon season. When refugees
started arriving several years ago, the Bangladeshis initially
welcomed them with sympathy, but have been getting increasingly
resentful.

The plan to relocate 100,000 refugees to the island of Bhasan Char was
originally proposed in 2015, but it has been postponed several times.
In the most recent attempt, prime minister Sheikh Hasina was scheduled
on October 3 to officially open newly-constructed shelters for the
refugees on Bhashan Char, but the announcement was postponed again.
Finance Today (Bangladesh) and Daily Star (Bangladesh) and Quartz (27-Feb)


****
**** The island of Bhasan Char - 'floating island' - rose from the sea 20 years ago
****


Infographic: Construction on Bhasan Char

Bhashan Char, which means "floating island" in the Bengali language,
emerged from the sea about 10-20 years ago. It was formed in the last
20 years by silt from Bangladesh’s Meghna River.

According to some reports, half the island goes underwater every time
there's a full moon, and 60% of the island is underwater during a
monsoon.

So Bangladesh's navy has fast-tracked construction of shelters and
water barriers. Each shelter will be a metal-rooted brick building,
raised on pylons, to house 16 families. Each family (4 people) will
be allotted a 3.5x4 meter room for sleeping, with bathrooms and
kitchens down the hall. There will be solar panels on the roof, and
water filters below deck.

Chinese and British engineers are building a 13 km embankment, with
the entire habitable area surrounded by a wall 2.47 meters high. An
offshore structure will protect the structures from the waves.

The construction is only partially complete, which is probably
the reason for the latest postponement.

Many NGOs are objecting to plan to transfer 100,000 refugees to Bhasan
Char. Human Rights Watch gives the following reasons: 1) it is not
sustainable for human habitation; 2) it could be seriously affected by
rising sea levels and storm surges; 3) it likely would have very
limited education and health services; 4) it would provide extremely
limited opportunities for livelihoods or self-sufficiency; 5) it would
unnecessarily isolate refugees; 6) the Bangladeshi government has made
no commitment to allow refugees’ freedom of movement in and from
Bhasan Char; 7) it is far from the Myanmar border; and 8) the refugees
have not consented to move there.

Nonetheless, construction on the island is continuing, and Bangladesh
will probably announce a new relocation date soon. Dhaka Tribune/AFP (18-Sep) and Reuters (22-Feb) and NewsClick (24-Feb) and Human Rights Watch

Related Articles:

• Genocide of Rohingyas in Burma (Myanmar) appears to be almost complete (27-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Devastating UN report on Burma shows scale of ghastly atrocities by Buddhists targeting Muslim Rohingyas (04-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht (05-Apr-2013)
  
  
• Generational history of Burma (Myanmar) (26-Sep-2007)
  
  
• Burma's (Myanmar's) leaders may be inspired by Pol Pot's Cambodian 'Killing Fields' genocide (29-Sep-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Myanmar, Burma, Buddhists,
Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, Cox's Bazar,
Bay of Bengal, Bhasan Char, floating island, Meghna River,
Cambodia, Pol Pot, Aung San Suu Kyi

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Oct-18 World View -- Constantinople grants Ukrainian Orthodox Church independence, causing historic split with Russia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Constantinople grants Ukrainian Orthodox Church independence, causing historic split with Russia
  
• Russia says that Constantinople's decision is 'catastrophic'
  

****
**** Constantinople grants Ukrainian Orthodox Church independence, causing historic split with Russia
****


The Pechersk Lavra church in Kiev must now change its allegiance from Moscow to Kiev. There are fears that this struggle will lead to violence. (Sputnik)

Orthodox Christian Patriarch Bartholomew I, leader of the
Constantinople Patriarchate and "first among equals" leader of all
Orthodox Christian churches and of the world's 300 million Orthodox
Christians, announced on Thursday that he will be issuing a "Tomos of
autocephaly" (charter of independence) to the Orthodox Christian
Church of Ukraine in Kiev.

Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko quickly hailed the decision.
"This is a victory of good over evil, light over darkness," he said,
adding that Ukraine has been waiting for this "historic event" for
more than 330 years.

The "330 years" refers to another part of the Bartholomew's
announcement:

<QUOTE>"4) To revoke the legal binding of the Synodal Letter
of the year 1686, issued for the circumstances of that time, which
granted the right through oikonomia to the Patriarch of Moscow to
ordain the Metropolitan of Kyiv, elected by the Clergy-Laity
Assembly of his eparchy, who would commemorate the Ecumenical
Patriarch as the First hierarch at any celebration, proclaiming
and affirming his canonical dependence to the Mother Church of
Constantinople."<END QUOTE>

In granting independence to Ukraine's church, Bartholomew it taking
control of Ukraine's church from the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC).
This has infuriated the Russians, and is a political and financial
disaster for the ROC and for Russia's Patriarch Kirill, since about a
third of the parishes controlled by Kirill are in Ukraine.

In anticipation of Thursday's announcement, the ROC last month broke
all relations with the Constantinople. ( "16-Sep-18 World View -- Russian Orthodox Church in historic split with Constantinople over Ukraine issue"
)

Thursday's announcement is the culmination of decades of tension
between the Ukraine and Russian churches since the time of the Soviet
collapse in 1991. The ROC took control of the Ukrainian church, which
was headed by Ukrainian Patriarch Filaret Denisenko, an ardent
proponent of independence from the ROC. The ROC excommunicated
Filaret, who formed his own unrecognized Ukrainian Orthodox Church,
which is now the second largest in Ukraine.

Thursday's announced by Bartholomew also reverses the excommunication
of Filaret:

<QUOTE>"3) To accept and review the petitions of appeal of
Filaret Denisenko, Makariy Maletych and their followers, who found
themselves in schism not for dogmatic reasons, in accordance with
the canonical prerogatives of the Patriarch of Constantinople to
receive such petitions by hierarchs and other clergy from all of
the Autocephalous Churches. Thus, the above-mentioned have been
canonically reinstated to their hierarchical or priestly rank, and
their faithful have been restored to communion with the
Church."<END QUOTE>

It is now considered likely that Filaret will be chosen to lead the
new Ukraine Orthodox Church.

The Constantinople Patriarchate and the Moscow Patriarchate are two of
several dozen Orthodox Patriarchates in the world, but they're the two
most influential. The city of Constantinople was renamed Istanbul
when it was conquered by the Ottoman Muslims in 1453, bringing an end
to the Byzantine Empire. The offices of the Constantinople
Patriarchate are located in today's Istanbul.

According to Ukrainian media, a scholarly study of the history of the
ROC reveals that it never received a "Tomos of autocephaly," and
therefore may itself not be a legitimate church. Constaninople Patriarchate and AFP and Russian Today and Unian (Ukraine)

****
**** Russia says that Constantinople's decision is 'catastrophic'
****

There are thousands of churches in Ukraine that have pledged
allegiance to the Moscow Patriarchate, and who will now be under
pressure to pledge allegiance to the new Ukrainian Church.

Bishop Hilarion Alfeyev, spokesman for the Russian Orthodox Church,
calls the decision "catastrophic," and says, "Of course, people will
take to streets and protect their sacred sites." Hilarion in the past
has warned,

<QUOTE>"If the schismatics begin to seize the laurels,
thousands of people will gather, they will defend these
monasteries, blood will be shed, ... If, God forbid, there will be
a legitimization of the split, it is difficult even to imagine
what consequences this can lead to. This would mean a split,
similar to the split of 1054."<END QUOTE>

This alludes to the historic, bloody split between the Catholic
Church, led by Rome, and the Eastern Othodox Church, led by
Constantinople, in 1054. In 1204, in a new Crusade, the Catholic army
sacked sacked Constantinople, starving and murdering its citizens, and
plundered the Orthodox Church's treasures accumulated over the
centuries, capping the deed by placing a prostitute on the Emperor's
throne at the church of St. Sophia, at that time the most beautiful
church in Christendom. It was not until the year 2001, after facing
large anti-Catholic protests in Athens, that Pope John Paul apologized
to the Greeks for the incident, and made a plea for forgiveness.

So Hilarion's warning that Constantinople's Ukraine decision is
similar to the split of 1054 illustrates how furious the Russians are
that this decision was made. It's expected that Kiev and Moscow are
going to be fighting for control of every one of the churches affected
by the decision, but whether those fights lead to violence between the
parishioners remains to be seen.

Another consequence might be Russian violence against the Churches in
Russian-occupied Crimea. Russia may attack these churches in
retaliation for Kiev's attempts to control the churches in mainland
Ukraine. AFP and Tass (Moscow)
and Unian (Kiev) and Washington Post


Related Articles:

• Russian Orthodox Church in historic split with Constantinople over Ukraine issue (16-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Russia's annexation of Crimea splits the Russian Orthodox Church (20-Mar-2014)
  
  
• Russian Duma goes after Protestant churches as 'sects and cults' (14-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Historic Orthodox Christian gathering in Crete exposes sharp divisions (20-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Pope John Paul apologizes for 1204 sacking of Constantinople (13-Jul-2004)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Constantinople,
Russian Orthodox Church, Ukrainian Orthodox Church,
Patriarch Bartholomew I, Patriarch Kirill,
Pechersk Lavra, Petro Poroshenko,
Filaret Denisenko, Hilarion Alfeyev, Crimea

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Oct-18 World View -- N. Korea's Kim Jong-un met Pompeo in a new Rolls-Royce Phantom, violating sanctions

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• N. Korea's Kim Jong-un met Pompeo in a new Rolls-Royce Phantom, violating sanctions
  
• Growth of Ebola cases suddenly surges in DR Congo, threatening Uganda, Rwanda
  

****
**** N. Korea's Kim Jong-un met Pompeo in a new Rolls-Royce Phantom, violating sanctions
****


Kim Jong-un arrives at meeting after stepping out of a new black Rolls Royce Phantom limousine (CNN)

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo traveled to North Korea's capital
city Pyongyang on Sunday, for a meeting with the child dictator Kim
Jong-un.

A smiling Kim was driven to the meeting in a new black Rolls Royce
Phantom limousine. The car costs $500,000, with an additional
$200,000 investment to provide security.

This car could not have been acquired without violating United Nations
sanctions, probably with delivery from China. Ostentatiously driving
this car to the meeting appears to have been a slap in the face to
Pompeo.

Not surprisingly, the meeting appeared to accomplish little.

North Korea is demanding that the US sign a peace treaty that would
officially end the 1950s Korean War, and offered in exchange to
destroy a nuclear test site that was unusable anyway. Signing the
peace treaty might lead to the withdrawal of American troops from
South Korea, which Pompeo refused.

Pompeo demanded demanding a list of all nuclear and ballistic missile
development and test sites in North Korea, in return for reducing or
eliminating sanctions, and Kim refused.

South Korea, China and Russia are increasing international
pressure on the Trump administration to agree to reduce sanctions
on North Korea, despite the fact that the North has made no
irreversible concessions. The US has made a reversible concession,
by suspending all military drills with South Korea.

The objective of the North Korean regime from the beginning has been
to use reversible concessions, a charm offensive and international
pressure to force the Trump administration to reduce or eliminate
sanctions. That would be an enormous victory for North Korea and a
total humiliation to America, as it was when a similar North Korea
strategy worked against the Bush administration in 2007. Chosun (Seoul) and UPI and CNN

Related Articles:

• China, Russia demand that that some North Korea sanctions be lifted (29-Sep-2018)
  
  
• US imposes new North Korea sanctions on Chinese and Russian shipping companies (17-Aug-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  

****
**** Growth of Ebola cases suddenly surges in DR Congo, threatening Uganda, Rwanda
****

The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Friday that there are now
200 cases of Ebola in the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of
Congo (DRC), with 165 of them confirmed, and the other 35 considered
probable.

There were 33 new cases between October 1-9, compared with 41 cases in
the entire month of September. The number of new cases each day has
more than doubled in October, compared to September.

There are a couple of reasons for the sudden surge in the growth of
the number of cases. The main reason is that Ebola is spreading into
a war zone for a major ethnic war in DRC's North Kivu province, and so
it's often impossible for WHO health workers to even enter these areas
or, if they do, they're receive opposition from the local population,
who fear and distrust them.

A second, related reason, is that most of the new cases are
now in the densely populated city of Beni, and Beni is also in
the war zone.

Sometimes health workers are targeted by armed opposition groups, but
even when they're not, they may be forced to stay out of an infected
area because of continuing gunfights or because of protests by groups
opposing the violence.

The city of Beni is near the border with Uganda, and it seems
increasingly likely that Ebola will spread into Uganda, and possibly
into Rwanda, Burundi, and South Sudan. World Health Organization (WHO) and Relief Web and Punch (Nigeria) and AFP
and Canadian Broadcasting

Related Articles:

• World Health Organization fears 'perfect storm' could spread Ebola rapidly in DR Congo (26-Sep-2018)
  
  
• In dreaded scenario, Ebola spreads to densely populated war zone in Congo (25-Aug-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
Rolls Royce Phantom, Mike Pompeo,
Ebola, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, North Kivu, Beni,
World Health Organization, WHO,
Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan

Permanent web link to this article
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Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Oct-18 World View -- China defends million-prisoner 'reeducation camps' and Sinicization of Islam in Xinjiang

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China defends million-prisoner 'reeducation camps' and Sinicization of Islam in Xinjiang
  
• Brief history of China's religions
  

****
**** China defends million-prisoner 'reeducation camps' and Sinicization of Islam in Xinjiang
****


Uighur people mingle in the old town of Kashgar, Xinjiang, China on March 22, 2017 (Reuters)

Since the end of World War II, China's atheist government has been on
a "Sinicization" program of all religions. Typically this means
brutal suppression of followers who display allegiance to anything not
approved by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). For example,
in April of this year, the CCP declared:

<QUOTE>"The core and soul of Sinicization of Christianity are
the Sinicization of theological thought. Only by the realization
of Sinicization of theological thought will there be Sinicization
in the true sense. Otherwise, the Sinicization of Christianity
will be empty slogans like trees without roots, water without a
source."<END QUOTE>

In practice, China's storm troopers in recent years have invaded
churches and torn down posters of Jesus and replaced them with posters
of Xi Jinping.

As has been widely reported, the Sinicization of Islam in has meant
sending millions of Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang province to
"reeducation centers," where they are imprisoned, raped, tortured, and
forced to recite Chinese Communist propaganda at the tops of their
lungs. When the existence of these camps was first reported, the
Chinese vehemently denied that they existed. But in the last few days
they've admitted their existence, but say that the camps are
necessary, for the same reason that they give for the violent
suppression of all religions: to prevent "extremism" and "splittism,"
and to promote ethnic solidarity and religious harmony.

In August, China declared a war against "halalization." Everyday
halal products, such as food and toothpaste, must be produced
according to Islamic law.

As part of the sinicization of Islam, the government is pulling down
mosques that have Islamic domes that look too much like Arab mosques.
All Arabic script must be removed. The mosques must look like Chinese
religious temples, presumably Daoist temples.

Books on Islam and copies of the Koran have been removed from souvenir
shops. Private Arabic schools have been forced to shut down. It's
also forbidden to have a long beard.

Although Islam is the main current target, the same kinds of harsh
measures are being applied to the other non-indigenous religions --
Catholicism, Protestantism and Buddhism. According Xi Jinping last
year, "[We] should adhere to the direction of Sinicizing religion in
our country, and actively guide religion to adapt to a socialist
society." Reuters and CNN and South China Morning Post (14-May) and Al Jazeera

****
**** Brief history of China's religions
****

Recently I've been doing my own research on China's teachings and
religions, and this is a summary of what I've learned so far.

As an imperialistic country throughout its multi-millennial
history, China's religions have always been heavily tied
in with war -- either wars of conquest or internal civil wars.

China's core cultural teachings, developed around 500 BC, are Sun
Tzu's The Art of War and Confucius' Analects. These
teachings tell the harsh rules for winning wars, and the harsh rules
for maintaining a "Mandate from Heaven" for a unified, harmonious
society. Insofar as they can be called religions, they are the
pro-government religions.

Daoism as a religion was a reaction to Confucianism. It
teaches peasants how to maintain harmony with nature without the harsh
Confucian rules, whether you're pro-government or anti-government,
and so Daoism has sometimes been the core of anti-government
protests.

Buddhism: As a religion imported from India, not indigenous in China,
Buddhism has historically been the most important vehicle for
anti-government protests. Subjugated people in particular have
adopted Buddhism, because in Buddhism all people are equal, and
someone who is evil in this life will be punished when he is
reincarnated in the next life. Major historical anti-government
branches of Buddhism were the White Lotus Society, Tibetan Buddhism,
and Falun Gong, all of which have been violently suppressed by the
government as major threats.

Catholicism has existed in China since the 600s AD. It became very
popular in China, thanks to Jesuit missionaries, but the Chinese
government has always considered it a major threat because it requires
allegiance to an outsider -- the Pope. Since 1949, the government has
been harshly hostile to Catholicism, and has demanded to control all
functions, including appointments of bishops and priests. So today,
there are two Catholic churches in China, the Chinese Catholic Church,
and the underground Catholic Church, with allegiance to the pope.

Chinese leaders fear Protestantism because the massive Taiping
Rebellion (1850-64) was launched by a Protestant convert who believed
he was the brother of Jesus. Since 1949, China has harshly controlled
Protestantism, even to the point of replacing worship of Jesus with
worship of Xi Jinping.

Islam: China's wars with the Mongols and the Turkic tribes in Central
Asia have been against Muslims. Today, the Chinese government has
opened "reeducation camps" for millions of Muslim Uighurs in Xinjiang
province, and Uighurs are regularly raped, tortured and slaughtered.

Throughout Chinese history, all the internal rebellions or external
invasion have had as their underlying motivation a widespread popular
religious belief. Therefore the non-indigenous religions (Buddhism,
Protestantism, Catholicism, Islam) have been permitted only when
carefully (and violently controlled by the government.

Starting in 1949, China's government has controlled the non-indigenous
religions, but the control took a turn and became extremely harsh
starting in the early 1990s, because of two traumatizing events.

The first traumatizing event was the June 4, 1989, Tiananmen Square
massacre, a massive peaceful student anti-government demonstration
that China's security forces brutally repulsed, killing thousands of
innocent students, creating a bloodbath. Today, a Chinese person can
be thrown into jail for even mentioning the Tiananmen Square massacre.

The second traumatizing event was the 1991 collapse of the Soviet
Union. This terrified the CCP because they realized that the same
thing could happen in China, and the massive Tiananmen Square protests
showed the way.

So today Xi Jinping is terrorized by Winnie the Pooh, because he looks
like Winnie the Pooh, and he's terrorized by all the uncontrolled
religions, since they could lead to an internal rebellion. He fears
Islam because it might be used in an invasion of China from Central
Asia. He fears Tibetan Buddhism because the Tibetans have never
accepted Chinese rule since China viciously invaded the nation of
Tibet in the 1950s.

Xi Jinping and the CCP feel a special terror of the Falun Gong
spiritual movement. This is an offshoot of Buddhism that began in
1992 in reaction to the government's bloody crackdown in Tiananmen
Square. In 1999, when there were tens of millions of practitioners,
China began to arrest, torture, rape and kill practitioners. Human
rights advocates claim that hundreds of thousands of practitioners
have been killed for the purpose of organ harvesting -- to provide
fresh organs to be transplanted into other people. China's State Council Information Office and Union of Catholic Asian News and Council on Foreign Relations and US State Dept.

Related Articles

• University of N. Florida and Pentagon cut ties with China's Confucius Institutes (30-Sep-2018)
  
  
• New book documents extensive Chinese infiltration into Australia's organizations (26-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Concerns grow over China's covert infiltration into New Zealand's government (16-Feb-2018)
  
  
• China-Australia relations plummet over China's illegal militarization of South China Sea (16-Dec-2017)
  
  
• China says that its economy is "sound and stable" (06-Dec-2006)
  
  
• China Prime Minister warns country becoming unstable (24-Jan-2006)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Sinicization, Islam, Xinjiang,
Chinese Communist Party, CCP, Xi Jinping, Winnie the Pooh,
Catholicism, Protestantism, Buddhism,
Sun Tzu, The Art of War, Confucius, Analects, Daoism,
White Lotus Society, Tibetan Buddhism, Falun Gong,
Tiananmen Square, Soviet Union

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John J. Xenakis
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Oct-18 World View -- Saudi Arabia tries to recover from Khashoggi disappearance disaster

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Saudi Arabia tries to recover from Khashoggi disappearance disaster
  
• Negotiations follow the pattern of N. Korea's 2010 torpedoing of S. Korean warship
  

****
**** Saudi Arabia tries to recover from Khashoggi disappearance disaster
****


Despite his boyish grin, many people believe that Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the brutal murder of Jamal Khashoggi (AP)

Saudi officials appear to be in a state of shock over the harsh
international reaction to the disappearance of xxx Khashoggi almost
two weeks ago.

Khashoggi was once a close adviser to the Saudi government, but has
become persona non grata since criticizing the human rights
record of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), and his
pursuit of the Yemen war, which has been a major humanitarian
disaster. The excommunication was complete when Khashoggi exiled
himself to the United States, and began publishing his criticisms of
MBS as a Washington Post reporter. Recently, he needed Saudi
government papers in order to marry his fiancé, a Turkish citizen,
Hatice (Khadija) Cengiz. He made two visits to the Saudi consulate in
Istanbul, Turkey, and he completely disappeared during the second
visit, on October 2.

Turkey's government has officially taken the position that it's still
investigating, but numerous leaks to the Turkish media indicate a
belief that Khashoggi was killed inside the consulate, and that his
body was dismembered, packed up in suitcases, and taken back to Saudi
Arabia in private Saudi planes. It's also believed that MBS ordered
the killing, and Turkism media are claiming that officials have audio
recordings of Khashoggi being interrogated and killed in the embassy.

Many people are shocked by the apparent brutality of the alleged
murder, but it seems that the biggest shock of all is that
international outrage is continuing and may be growing. MBS has been
ruthless in committing human rights abuses, arresting and imprisoning
hundreds of people without trials. There have been numerous
complaints that he decreed that women would be permitted to drive, but
then he ordered the arrest of some of the women who did drive. And of
course he's pursued the Yemen war mercilessly. He's done all this
with impunity and little uproar. What's surprising is the uproar in
this case.

There have been international public demands for the Saudis to explain
what happened, and there have been threats from the White House and
from officials in Britain, France and Germany, including threats of
sanctions by Donald Trump. Saudi Arabia has angrily denied the
accusations, and threatened sanctions in return -- presumably to use
oil as a weapon. AP and
CNN and Reuters and Al Jazeera (Qatar)

****
**** Negotiations follow the pattern of N. Korea's 2010 torpedoing of S. Korean warship
****

What's becoming increasingly clear is that despite all the
international uproar, nobody has the stomach for an all-out
war -- not a military war, not a financial war, and not a sanctions
war. The US and the Europeans have demanded explanations and
investigations, but haven't made any explicit threats.

There's a recent historical event that provides an analogy to
the diplomatic pattern that's emerging.

On March 26, 2010, the North Koreans launched a torpedo at the South
Korean warship Cheonan, causing an explosion that killed 46 people.
Everyone knew immediately that the explosion was caused by a North
Korean torpedo, almost certainly ordered by Kim Jong-il, the father of
the current child dictator, but South Korean President Lee Myung-bak
refused to say so. Instead Lee continued to call for more and
more investigations.

The reason was simple. If Lee had formally accused North Korea
of sinking a South Korean warship, then South Korea would have
been forced to retaliate militarily, or even declare war. Lee
did not want to have to declare war.

The disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi today has created a similar
situation, where nobody wants to let the Saudis completely off the
hook, but nobody wants a full-on financial or sanctions war.

Since the 1930s, America and Saudi Arabia have had a very specific
core understanding: That Saudi Arabia will guarantee to supply all the
oil that America and the West need, and, in return, America and the
West must guarantee the security of Saudi Arabia.

The exact details of the US-Saudi relationship have had to change from
time to time, based on international events such as Iran's revolution,
Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the Iraq war, the Soviet invasion of
Afghanistan, Obama's nuclear deal with Iran, Syria's civil war, the
rise of ISIS. The 1973 oil embargo, which came out of Israel's war
with Egypt, cemented the US-Saudi relationship.

Today, Saudi Arabia plays a crucial role in US and Western
strategy. Saudi Arabia is important for Trump's strategy with
Iran, and in Trump's peace plan proposal for Israel and
the Palestinians.

The core has always remained the same: The Saudis will guarantee oil,
the Americans will guarantee security. The Khashoggi disappearance is
just one more event that threatens the US-Saudi accords that have been
in place since the 1930s, but all signs are that the parties will find
a way to keep the Khashoggi crisis under control. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and BBC and
Al Arabiya (Riyadh) and Reuters and Washington Examiner

Related Articles:

• Suspicious disappearance of Saudi journalist in Turkey threatens to upset Mideast relations (08-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia threatens further sanctions against Qatar if demands are not met (04-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Donald Trump promises to solve the Gulf crisis 'fairly easily' (13-Sep-2017)
  
  
• S. Korea thanks America over Korean War, and warns N. Korea (26-Jun-2011)
  
  
• South Korea commemorates Cheonan warship attack, while North starves (27-Mar-2011)
  
  
• S. Korean and Chinese leaders meet to discuss warship sinking (01-May-2010)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, MBS,
Turkey, Jamal Khashoggi, Hatice (Khadija) Cengiz,
North Korea, Kim Jong-il, South Korea, Lee Myung-bak, Cheonan

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Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe