Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 5-Nov-18 World View -- US and South Korea resume some military marine drills, despite North's objections

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US and South Korea resume some military marine drills, despite North's objections
  
• Disarmament proceeds along North-South Korea border, opposed by US
  

****
**** US and South Korea resume some military marine drills, despite North's objections
****


South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands in front of Freedom House at Panmunjom, in April. (Korea Times)

US and South Korea marine forces will begin on Monday joint military
marine drills around the southeastern port city of Pohang on
Monday. It will involve 500 troops from the South Korean Marine Corps
and the U.S. III Marine Expeditionary Force stationed in Okinawa.
South Korea announced that it will decide next month whether to
suspend next year's exercises.

Early in January of this year, at the time that North Korea was
beginning its "charm offensive" and talking about participating in the
Olympics games in Seoul, North Korea demanded that US-South Korea
military drills be postponed until after the Olympics. The military
drills have been performed for years, and they have always infuriated
both the North Koreans and the Chinese. So, the US and South Korea
acceded to the North Korean demand to postpone the drills until after
March 18, when the Olympics and Paralympics games finally end.

However, the charm offensive continued, with numerous negotiating
sessions involving North Korea, South Korea, and the United States,
including personal meetings between the national leaders. North
Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un repeatedly insisted that he would
fully "denuclearize." North Korea has even destroyed a nuclear
testing facility that it doesn't need or use to "prove" it was
sincere.

Many analysts, including myself, believe that North Korea has no
intention to denuclearize, and that the purpose of the "charm
offensive" is to apply political pressure to the United States to
agree to and the sanctions with having to make any denuclearization
concessions. I also believe that if Kim Jong-un tried to actually
denuclearize, then he would be shot dead by his own generals.

North Korea has taken steps towards denuclearization, even refusing to
take the simple step of providing a list of all its nuclear
development sites. No reason was given by the US military why it is
resuming the limited military drills, but it may be a warning to North
Korea after 11 months of charm offensive that nothing has been
accomplished.

Kim Jong-un appears to be replaying the same fraudulent script that
his father Kim Jong-il followed in 2008. At that time, the North
demolished a 60-foot-tall cooling tower to prove that it was ending
its nuclear development programs. In reaction, the Bush
administration agreed to remove all sanctions. As soon as they were
removed, North Korea immediately and openly resumed its nuclear and
ballistic missile development. They had completely defrauded the
United States and the world.

On Friday, North Korea issued a statement threatening to resume
nuclear development unless the sanctions are lifted. Specifically,
the statement threatened to resume North Korea's "pyongjin" policy of
simultaneously advancing its nuclear force and economic development.

Some analysts claim that North Korea has already won. A year ago, the
US was threatening military action to halt North Korea's nuclear and
missile development. Now, thanks to the charm offensive, the North
had a year to continue nuclear and missile development in secret,
lacking on the ability to openly test their development with hydrogen
bomb tests and long-range ballistic missile tests. North Korea is
believed to have an arsenal of ballistic missiles ready to be launched
at the US or other targets, and at a time of its choosing it can
simply start openly testing again.

The charm offensive will continue later this week, when Secretary of
State Mike Pompeo will meet with North Korean officials to discuss the
next halluncinatory steps in the denuclearization process. Pompeo's
last meeting didn't accomplish anything. Yonhap News (Seoul) and Reuters and AP

****
**** Disarmament proceeds along North-South Korea border, opposed by US
****

For several months, there has been a separate "peace process" going on
in Korea, not well publicized outside.

South Korea's president Moon Jae-in has had several well-publicized
meetings with Kim Jong-un, and they've agreed to disarm the
demilitarized zone (DMZ) border that separates North and South Korea.

Two weeks ago, the two Koreas announced that firearms and military
posts have been withdrawn from a portion of the DMZ, turning the
"truce village" of Panmunjom into a "peace village."

This was done quickly, after Moon and Kim agreed to it, and it was the
first step in fulfilling the far-reaching agreement of disarming the
DMZ, removing land mines, declaring a no-fly zone over a huge region
near the border, and eventually removing the 25,000 American troops
stationed nearby.

There's no shortage of people calling this a super-wonderful first
step on the road to peaceful reunification of North and South Korea.

However, the US State Dept. is opposing these steps. The North
Koreans have never repudiated their oft-stated intention of invading
South Korea and taking control. Demilitarizing the DMZ has a second
purpose -- removing some of the major obstacles to a North Korean
invasion of South Korea. North Korea could send its 1.1 million man
army across the border into Seoul, wiping out the 23,000 American
soldiers stationed there.

The US State Dept. is particularly objecting to the agreement to
impose a no-fly zone over the border, because it would effectively
prevent close air support drills. The agreement also bars live-fire
drills involving fixed-wing aircraft and air-to-ground guided weapons
in the no-fly area.

If you step back and look at the entire year, Kim Jong-un seems to be
winning on every point. There's widespread cheating by the Chinese
and Russians over the sanctions. North Korea has been free to
continue nuclear development and ballistic missile development, with
no restriction except open testing. And the DMZ is being
demilitarized, leaving Seoul open to invasion by the North at a time
of its choosing.

All of this seems pretty obvious to a lot of people. The only
question is: Why is Moon Jae-in facilitating it? Yonhap News (Seoul) and Stars and Stripes and Reuters (18-Oct) and Korea Herald (19-Sep)

Related Articles:

• N. Korea's Kim Jong-un met Pompeo in a new Rolls-Royce Phantom, violating sanctions (13-Oct-2018)
  
  
• China, Russia demand that that some North Korea sanctions be lifted (29-Sep-2018)
  
  
• US imposes new North Korea sanctions on Chinese and Russian shipping companies (17-Aug-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, South Korea,
Kim Jong-un, Moon Jae-in, Mike Pompeo,
Pohang, Panmunjom, pyongjin policy,
Demilitarized zone, DMZ

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 6-Nov-18 World View -- Pakistan's Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claims credit for killing CPEC workers

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan's Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claims credit for killing CPEC workers
  
• Questions raised about planned China military naval base in Jiwani
  

****
**** Pakistan's Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claims credit for killing CPEC workers
****


Gwadar Port

The separatist terror group Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claimed
credit for killing on October 31 five men working for a construction
company building 70 housing developments. The housing will be
populated by thousands of Chinese workers who will be working on the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The housing developments are
on the road connecting Gwardar port to the town of Jiwani.

According to Azad Baloch, a BLA spokesman:

<QUOTE>"The site attacked today was part of the CPEC
project. ...

Today's attack is a clear message to China and all other countries
that Balochistan is an occupied territory. We warn China to halt
working on all the projects including a planned naval base in
Jiwani, Balochistan. The BLA will continue to resist against the
occupation of Baloch Ocean and coastal belt. ...

China and Pakistan are settling Punjabis and Chinese in Gwadar and
other areas of Balochistan's coastal belt to turn the Baloch into
a minority under their expansionist designs.

If the international community fails to fulfil their
responsibilities and turn a blind eye to the Pakistani and Chinese
colonization of Balochistan, then the Baloch nation will have no
other option but to target all non-Baloch settlers in
Balochistan."<END QUOTE>

This was only the latest in a series of BLA attacks on CPEC targets in
Balochistan. On October 26, the BLA conducted a joint operation with
another separatist group, the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), and
killed two Pakistani paramilitary soldiers in a coordinated attack on
a senior officer's convoy. In September, there were seven terrorist
attacks in Balochistan. In August, the BLA claimed credit for a suicide bombing attack on a bus

transporting Chinese workers, injuring three.

After the August suicide bombing, Chinese companies hired more
security personnel to protect Chinese workers. However, the targets
of the most recent terror attacks were not Chinese, and not Baloch.
Furthermore, they were not killed with a suicide bombing. Instead,
they were killed when unidentified motorcyclists opened fire at them
and fled. Also, they were from other provinces in Pakistan. The BLA
is insisting that with unemployment and poverty so high among Baloch
people, Baloch workers should be doing the CPEC development, rather
Chinese workers or workers from Punjab.

However, a Chinese investment firm has already announced a project to
build homes for 500,000 Chinese professionals in Gwadar by 2023.
Dawn and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and Al Jazeera and Express Tribune (Pakistan, 11-Oct) and The News (Pakistan, 21-Oct-2017)

****
**** Questions raised about planned China military naval base in Jiwani
****

CPEC is a $55-60 billion 20-year project that will supposedly build a
network of roads, railways and energy pipelines aiming to connect
western Chinese cities, starting from China's easternmost city Kashgar
in Xinjiang province, to the sea port in Gwadar on the Indian Ocean in
Balochistan province in southern Pakistan. Power generation,
transport, commerce, R&D and the defense of Pakistan all will be
increasingly tied to Chinese investment, supplies and interests.

China has always insisted that Gwadar will be a purely commercial
port, with no military purpose at all. As usual, we seem to be facing
the usual deception, double-talk, and lying from the Chinese.

Recall that in 2015, China's president Xi Jinping and said that his
country had "no intention to militarize" the South China Sea, and that
they would be tourist attractions. It was just as much a lie as when
Hitler promised "peace in our time" as he was planning to invade
Britain. Today, the Chinese military has turned them into bases,
bristling with radar domes, shelters for missiles, warplane runways,
and other heavy military equipment. No tourists are welcome.

In January of this year, there were reports that Gwadar would become a
Chinese military naval base. China denied the report, but an article
in the South China Morning Post reported that the military base would
not be in Gwadar itself, but nearby on the Jiwani Peninsula. The
article quoted a Beijing-based military analyst who said:

<QUOTE>"China needs to set up another base in Gwadar for its
warships because Gwadar is now a civilian port.

It’s a common practice to have separate facilities for warships
and merchant vessels because of their different
operations. Merchant ships need a bigger port with a lot of space
for warehouses and containers, but warships need a full range of
maintenance and logistical support services."<END QUOTE>

At a Beijing forum last week, Javaid Iqbal, Navy Secretary of the
Pakistan Navy was asked whether Gwadar is the location of a future
Chinese military base. He evaded the question by restricting his
answer to Gwadar port: "Let me emphasize that the Gwadar port is
purely a commercial venture and has no military overtones. The Gwadar
port has no military dimension. It will be just a commercial port."
So, no mention of a base in nearby Jiwani. Aren't these people
wonderful? Diplomat (9-Feb) and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong, 5-Jan) and Reuters (26-Oct) and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (CSIS/AMTI)


Related Articles:

• Chinese workers in Pakistan injured in terrorist bombing (15-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Pakistan faces imminent financial crisis threatening China's CPEC (07-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Pakistan overwhelmed and China alarmed over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) (12-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Execution of two of China's citizens in Pakistan raises concerns about CPEC (10-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Terror attack in Quetta, Balochistan, Pakistan, kills 75 (09-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Balochistan, China,
Balochistan Liberation Army, BLA, Baloch Liberation Front, BLF,
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC,
Kashgar, Xinjiang, Gwadar seaport, Jiwani, Javaid Iqbal

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 7-Nov-18 World View -- Suspicions grow about Russia's Wagner PMC mercenary group in Central African Republic

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Over 10,000 people displaced by new fighting in Central African Republic civil war
  
• Suspicions grow about Russia's Wagner PMC mercenary group in Central African Republic
  

****
**** Over 10,000 people displaced by new fighting in Central African Republic civil war
****


Tanzanian soldier in UN blue helmet peacekeeping mission in Central African Republic in July (AFP)

Last week, the town of Batangafo in northern Central African Republic
(CAR) was attacked by militias in the ongoing generational crisis
civil war. Armed groups looted and burned thousands of homes, three
camps hosting 27,000 displaced and a market in the city. Some 10,000
are seeking refuge in a hospital in Batangafo run by Doctors Without
Borders Borders (Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF). At the same time,
the town of Bambari in central CAR was attacked. Dozens of people
were wounded or killed, or had to be treated for burns.

The CAR sectarian war began in March 2013, when François Bozizé, the
Christian former president of CAR, was ousted in a coup in March 2013
by Michel Djotodia, a Muslim, who became president and served until
January 2014.

After Djotodia's coup took place in March 2013, Muslim Séléka militias
began committing atrocities, particularly targeting the Christian
constituencies of the deposed François Bozizé. In December 2013,
French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the Séléka
militias.

The actions of the French troops backfired. When the Muslim Séléka
troops were disarmed, the Christian anti-balaka militias "rushed into
the vacuum," and began committing atrocities in 2014, for revenge
against the Sélékas. Since then, both Christians and Muslims have
been committing atrocities, and it's become a full-scale generational
crisis war. Thousands have been killed, and millions have been
displaced.

Since 2013, there's been a delusional struggle, led by the United
Nations Security Council, to use "peacekeepers" to bring the fighting
to an end. The idea that "peacekeepers" can stop the progress
of a generational crisis war is absurd beyond belief.

In 2015, there was even a visit by Pope Francis to CAR's capital city
Bangui to propose "a renewed attention to the idea of a respectful
urban integration, as opposed to elimination, paternalism,
indifference or mere containment." ( "28-Nov-15 World View -- Pope Francis to visit Central African Republic in middle of civil war"
)

Well, I'm not sure that a visit by a Pope ever ended any war. A
generational crisis war only ends when everybody is completely
exhausted, and then only with an "explosive climax," usually an act of
genocide that's so horrific that both sides agree to end the war, and
vow never to allow anything like that to happen again. The war in CAR
is nowhere near such an explosive climax.

Jonathan Allen, UK's UN ambassador, recently said the following
at a UN Security Council meeting:

<QUOTE>"Civilians, peacekeepers, and humanitarian workers
continue to be attacked. More than one in four Central Africans
remain displaced; half of the population are in desperate need of
humanitarian assistance. Only 36% of the 2018 Humanitarian
Response Plan has been funded. We encourage all member states to
help fill this gap. The UK has provided £63 million – or $81
million – in humanitarian aid to CAR since 2015. We believe that
this aid supports progress towards a stable, secure, and peaceful
CAR – something that remains in all of our
interests."<END QUOTE>

No it won't. Any aid money to try and stop this generational
crisis war is just money down the drain.

From the point of Generational Dynamics, CAR's last generational
crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe
Handle"), which was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into
a generational Crisis era, with a new crisis war in progress.

This war was triggered by a religious fault line between Muslims and
Christians, but it's actually an ethnic war between cattle herders,
such as ethnic Fulani, versus farmers, such as ethnic Gula and Runga.
As I've described many times in Central African Republic, Nigeria,
Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, and even America in the
1800s, is that in country after country, there a classic and recurring
battle between herders and farmers. The farmers accuse the herders of
letting the cattle eat their crops, while the herders accuse the
farmers of planting on land that's meant for grazing. If the farmers
put up fences, then the herders knock them down. ReliefWeb (1-Nov) and Médecins Sans Frontières and Reuters and UK Government

****
**** Suspicions grow about Russia's Wagner PMC mercenary group in Central African Republic
****

In July, three internationally known reporters and war correspondents
were gunned down and killed in Central African Republic after their
car was ambushed.

The three were making a documentary film for TsUR, an investigative
media center funded by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a Russian oligarth. In
2003, Khodorkovsky announced he would run against Vladimir Putin for
president. Putin destroyed Khodorkovsky, and had him jailed for life,
only letting him out in 2013 in a "humanitarian gesture" before the
Sochi Olympics.

The topic of the documentary film was the Wagner Private Military
Company (PMC), a mercenary group, sometimes known as "Putin's personal
army" that Putin uses for "dirty work" when he needs deniability, most
recently in Ukraine and Syria. In the West, Wagner is believed
responsible for the deaths of the three journalists, while Russia's
foreign ministry denies the connection.

Historically, peacekeeping efforts in CAR were led by France, which
had been the colonial power in the past. But in the past year, Russia
has been actively working to expand its influence in CAR, supplying
hundreds of weapons to the CAR army along with 175 civilian and
military instructors.

Suspicions have raised that Russians are less interested in
peacekeeping, and more interested in cutting deals with rebels and
deploying Wagner mercenaries to guard the extraction of gold, diamonds
and uranium. There had been a previous announcement that Russia and
CAR had agreed on joint "exploratory mining concessions."

France's defence minister Florence Parly said last week:

<QUOTE>"Russia has asserted its presence in the Central
African Republic in recent months, it is true, but I am not sure
that this presence and the actions deployed by Moscow, like the
agreements negotiated in Khartoum at the end of August, help to
stabilize the country."<END QUOTE>

However, Russia's foreign ministry had defended its actions against
what it said was "a certain jealousy" by other foreign powers over
Russia's role in CAR. Telegraph (London, 31-Jul) and Africa News and Reuters (17-Oct) and Telegraph (London)

Related Articles

• Violence between herders and farmers surges in Nigeria (04-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Russia gains foothold in Central African Republic, displacing France (26-May-2018)
  
  
• Central African Republic war morphs from religious to ethnic war (01-Mar-2017)
  
  
• France pulls out of Central African Republic as sectarian violence grows (01-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Mob rule in Central African Republic as Christians crave revenge (20-Jan-2014)
  
  
• Putin announces that Mikhail Khodorkovsky will be freed (20-Dec-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Central African Republic, CAR, Bangui,
Batangafo, Bambari, François Bozizé, Michel Djotodia,
Séléka, anti-Balaka, Fulani, Gula, Runga,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle,
Doctors Without Borders, Médecins Sans Frontières, MSF,
Pope Francis, Jonathan Allen,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, TsUR,
Wagner Private MilitaryCompany, PMC, France, Florence Parly

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 8-Nov-18 World View -- The Jamal Khashoggi murder changes the direction of the Yemen war
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Yemen war violence intensifies as 30-day ceasefire deadline approaches
  
• The Jamal Khashoggi murder changes the direction of the Yemen war
  

****
**** Yemen war violence intensifies as 30-day ceasefire deadline approaches
****


Building in Sanaa destroyed by an airstrike last week (EPA)

On October 31, Secretary of Defense James Mattis called for a
ceasefire in the Yemen war in 30 days, or by the end of November. A
first step would require Iran to stop supplying missiles to the
insurgent Houthis:

<QUOTE>"[T]alk about demilitarizing the border so that the
Saudis and the [United Arab] Emirates do not have to worry about
missiles coming into their homes and cities and airports. [A
cease-fire arrangement should] ensure that all the missiles that
Iran has provided to the Houthis are put under international watch
in parks somewhere, where they can be kept accounted
for."<END QUOTE>

Unfortunately, that's already delusional. Iran would never agree to
that condition, or if it agreed, it wouldn't honor the commitment. In
fact, Iran already claims that it doesn't supply missiles to the
Houthis, so Iran could agree to this condition and then just keep
doing what it's doing.

Next, Mattis said:

<QUOTE>"[Such a truce would help] set the conditions for
[Yemeni factions to] return to traditional areas inside Yemen, and
a government that allows for this amount of local autonomy that
the Houthis or that southerners want."<END QUOTE>

Once again, this is delusional. The traditional are for the Houthis
is northwest Yemen, far outside the capital city Sanaa.

<QUOTE>"The longer-term solution, and by longer-term, I mean
30 days from now, we want to see everybody sitting around the
table, based on a cease-fire, based on a pullback from the border,
and then based on ceasing dropping of bombs, that will permit the
[U.N.] special envoy—Martin Griffiths, who's very good, he knows
what he's doing—to get them together in Sweden and end this war.

It’s time to stop [the Yemen war]. And right now, what the
Iranians have done by bringing in anti-ship missiles ... it’s
interrupted freedom of navigation, they are the ones who keep
fueling this conflict and they need to knock it off."<END QUOTE>

This is all fantasy. None of this is going to happen. But what's
interesting is that pretty much the opposite has happened.

Fearing that US support for the war might end in 30 days, Saudi Arabia
has redoubled its attacks on Yemen's al-Hodeidah seaport. Two hundred
air strikes were reported in and around Hodeidah on Saturday alone.
Artillery shells had also hit residential areas and temporary
roadblocks had prevented people from leaving or entering the city
overnight, in effect trapping them in an active conflict zone, it
added.

The UN says Yemen is on the brink of the world's worst famine in 100
years. The assault on the al-Hodeidah seaport has blocked
humanitarian aid, including food and medicines, from reaching much of
Yemen, with the danger of a worsening humanitarian crisis. US Institute for Peace and Arab News and
BBC
and CNN

****
**** The Jamal Khashoggi murder changes the direction of the Yemen war
****

With so many people being killed in so many ways every day, it's
somewhat startling to see that one particular murder, that of
Washington Post columnist and Saudi national Jamal Khashoggi by other
Saudi Nationals in Istanbul on October 2, has been the cause of so
much international chaos.

There are three reasons for this, in my opinion. First, the murder
was particularly gruesome, ordered by the highest officials in the
Saudi government, and the body has not yet been produced. Second,
Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been dribbling out the
facts of the case, so that every day there's a new revelation to
embarrass the Saudi government. And third, the al-Jazeera news
network, based in and funded by the government of Qatar, which has
become Saudi Arabia's mortal enemy, is doing everything possible to
keep the story alive, with lengthy coverage of the latest in every
newscast.

The Khashoggi murder has also had geopolitical consequences. As I
recently reported,
Pakistan's new
prime minister Imran Khan was able to use the Khashoggi scandal as
leverage to convince Saudi Arabia to provide $6 billion in aid.

It now appears that the Khashoggi murder is also changing the
direction of the Yemen war. The murder has strengthened the hand of
activists in the UK and Washington who want Saudi Arabia to end the
Yemen war. The statement by Secretary of Defense James Mattis,
excerpted above, was an outcome of the Khashoggi murder.

The Yemen war has been a disaster for Saudi Arabia. Despite repeated
promises that the war would end quickly, the Saudis are completely
bogged in a seemingly never-ending war. They would love for Mattis'
recommendations to succeed, but in the end that would hand Yemen over
to the Iranians, and they can't agree to that.

However, we're already seeing unintended consequences, specifically
Saudi Arabia doubling down on the violent assault on Hodeidah. The
proposal by Mattis was a ceasefire by all parties, including Iran, the
Houthis, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (UAE), and then have a
peace conference in Geneva. That was never going to happen of, if it
did, it would have resulted in a "peace process" with no commitments
honored by the parties. History shows that this kind of peace process
will not work.

Khashoggi's murder has led to Mattis' statement, which has led to a
massive increase in the violence in the Hodeidah attack. The Saudis
want to bring the Houthis to their knees, and force a negotiated truce
under terms favorable to the Saudis. History shows that this kind of
attack will not work either. This kind of attack only works when it
is at the climax of a generational crisis war, and then only when all
the parties are so war-weary and exhausted that they'll agree to end
the war. The Yemen war is nowhere near a climax. Saudi Gazette and
Foreign Policy and New Yorker and Al-Jazeera

Related Articles:

• Pakistan's 'desperate' Imran Khan attends Saudi investment summit amid Khashoggi crisis (25-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Saudis target women and children in Yemen to make them 'shiver' for generations (28-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Saudi coalition claims to have captured airport in Yemen's Hodeidah (20-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Saudi Arabia and UAE launch a 'catastrophic' assault on Port Hodeidah in Yemen (15-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Iranian advisors are 'on the ground' with Houthis in Yemen, supplying weapons and intelligence (06-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Brief generational history of South Yemen (29-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Yemen, Hodeidah, Saudi Arabia,
United Arab Emirates, UAE, Iran, James Mattis, Houthis,
Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Jamal Khashoggi, Pakistan, Imran Khan

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-Nov-18 World View -- Venezuela's refugees crisis soars, as economic disaster reaches new levels

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Venezuela's refugees crisis soars, as economic disaster reaches new levels
  
• Number of migrants leaving Venezuela reaches three million
  

****
**** Venezuela's refugees crisis soars, as economic disaster reaches new levels
****


Venezuelan migrants travel aboard a truck in Tumbes, Peru, near the Ecuador border, on November 1. (AFP)

The Socialist poster child, Venezuela, is facing increasing crises, as
the country continues to crumble. Socialism has been a disaster every
time it's been tried, whether it's been abandoned, as in North Korea,
Sweden, Russia, China, Cuba, or East Germany, or where it's led to
total financial disaster, as in North Korea.

In Venezuela, the refugee crisis and the economic crisis continue to
reach fresh levels, while the overweight Socialist president, Nicolás
Maduro, who stuffs himself while his people starve to death, shows no
hint of wanting abandon the disaster.

On Thursday, Venezuela's year on year inflation rate was 833,997%.
The International Monetary Fund predicted several months ago that
Venezuela's inflation rate would reach one million percent by the end
of the year, and Maduro is on track for reaching that goal. The IMF
predicted that the inflation rate would exceed 10 million percent by
the end of 2019, and there's nothing to stop that from happening
unless Maduro is stopped.

Maduro, along with his predecessor Hugo Chávez, have implemented a
perfectly functioning Socialist economy, with nationalized industries,
price controls, a high minimum wage, and punishment for anyone making
money. As in all perfectly functioning Socialist economies, there are
shortages of food, medicines, toilet paper, and other basic goods.

What's truly amazing and even record-setting is that Venezuela should
be the richest country in Latin America with the largest oil reserves
in the world, and yet faces a shortage of gasoline of 80%.

Venezuela has 18 refineries throughout the world and six in national
territory, but many of the refineries are in disrepair, and even when
they're working, they have no oil to refine. One of the main
refineries, Amuay, is operating at just 5.4% of production capacity.

Instead, what oil is available is sent to Cuba or China. According to
one worker representative, oil is being sent to China rather than
being refined:

<QUOTE>"There was an order from Nicolás Maduro to the
Minister of Petroleum, Manuel Quevedo, to send one million barrels
of oil to China. They stopped the refineries and loaded the
barrels. It is even more the amount that they send to
Cuba."<END QUOTE>

Since the beginning of the year, Maduro has sent over 11 million
barrels of oil to Cuba. Just between June and August, Maduro sent
4.19 million barrels, worth $248 million. If I understand this
correctly, it means that Cuba is now bailing out Venezuela, just as
Venezuela used to bail out Cuba.

It's noteworthy that while both Cuba and China call themselves
Socialist countries for public relations purposed, both countries have
largely given up Socialism and have opened up their markets. For
these countries, Socialism has simply turned into a religion. That's
why these countries are able to make money, which Venezuela is not.
Reuters and Today Venezuela and Guardian (London)

****
**** Number of migrants leaving Venezuela reaches three million
****

According to the United Nations, the number of migrants fleeing
Venezuela's Socialist poverty and violance has now surpassed three
million. Of the three million, 2.3 million have left Venezuela since
2015, and the number keeps increasing, with 3,000 new arrivals into
Colombia every day.

More than one million refugees and migrants are in Colombia. Peru has
more than half a million, Ecuador over 220,000, Argentina 130,000,
Chile over 100,000 and Brazil 85,000, according to the UN.

One priest in Colombia took a swipe at America: "People go crazy over
the caravan of Central Americans entering Mexico, trying to reach the
US. That's four, five, maybe 6,000 migrants, that's how many we get
every four days."

The rate of migration has sped up in the past six months. The new
figures show that about one in 12 of the population has now left the
country, driven by violence, hyperinflation and shortages of food and
medicines. Al Jazeera and Guardian (London)

Related Articles:

• China aids Venezuela as inflation rate approaches one million percent (10-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Latin American countries open their borders to migrants from Socialist Venezuela (06-Sep-2018)
  
  
• Socialist Venezuela introduces new fantasy currency and new Socialist changes (19-Aug-2018)
  
  
• Hugo Chávez dismantled Venezuela's businesses on purpose to create Socialist Paradise (29-May-2016)
  
  
• Socialist Cuba moves to Capitalism, while Socialist Venezuela moves to self-destruction (16-Jul-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Venezuela, Hugo Chávez, Nicolás Maduro,
International Monetary Fund, IMF,
Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Argentina, Chile, China, Cuba

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-Nov-18 World View -- China and India compete for influence in Sri Lanka and Maldives constitutional crises

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Sri Lanka constitutional crisis grows as president dissolves parliament
  
• New Maldives government begins untangling previous government's secret deals with China
  

****
**** Sri Lanka constitutional crisis grows as president dissolves parliament
****


A poster in Colombo, Sri Lanka, shows Mahinda Rajapaksa, left, with President Maithripala Sirisena (Reuters)

There are major individual government crises in progress in both the
Maldives and Sri Lanka, and they are linked by China's interference in
the affairs of both countries by using "debt trap diplomacy" related
to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Sri Lanka's president Maithripala Sirisena dissolved parliament on
Friday, after his administration promised that he wouldn't do that.
Sirisena fired prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe on October 26, and
appointed a new prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa.

Sirisena wanted the parliament to confirm his actions, but after it
became clear that he wouldn't have the votes, he dissolved parliament
to prevent a vote.

An interesting angle is that the Tamil MPs specifically refused
Sirisena's request that they abstain from the vote. The ethnic Hindu
Tamil minority community was defeated in a generational crisis civil
war that climaxed in 2009, with Rajapaksa leading the ethnic Buddhist
Sinhalese majority to victory, amid charges of war crimes.

So rather than allow a vote, Sirisena dissolved the parliament and
called for snap elections in January. Sirisena's opponents are saying
that both the decision to fire the prime minister and the decision to
dissolve the parliament are unconstitutional. So the constitutional
crisis and government gridlock is expected to continue into the new
year.

Sirisena has never given any explanation for why he fired his prime
minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. It's now emerged that Sirisena were in
sharp disagreement over whether a seaport project in the country
capital Colombo should be awarded to a Chinese firm, favored by
Sirisena, or an Indian firm, favored by Wickremesinghe.
Wickremesinghe was fired just after that loud disagreement, and
Rajapaksa was appointed.

Rajapaksa has always had close relations with China. When Rajapaksa
was president, he signed the agreement with China to build the
Hambantota seaport. This was China's first major "debt trap" deal,
putting Sri Lanka into so much debt that it had to hand control of the
seaport over to China.

Today, Sri Lanka is still in so much debt that it will never be paid
back. Still, because of Sri Lanka's strategic importance, both India
and China want to be build the new infrastructure projects. The
constitutional crisis may appear to be a domestic matter, but it has
important geopolitical implication. Times of Sri Lanka and Reuters and
Channel News Asia

****
**** New Maldives government begins untangling previous government's secret deals with China
****


Map showing strategic location of Maldives and Sri Lanka in the Indian Ocean

At the time I wrote about
the
September 23 Maldives election, it seemed the country could be headed
for its own constitutional crisis. The country was in something of a
state of shock because the incumbent president Abdulla Yameen, who had
never hesitated to use vote-rigging or jailings or violence to win
elections, had been expected to win. Instead, his opponent, Ibrahim
Mohamed Solih, won decisively, by 58-41% of the vote.

It was suspected that Yameen could not step down, since a new
administration would discover massive corruption in Yameen's dealings
with China. China had arranged for a "debt trap" for Maldives, and
Yameen's family was heavily involved in China's infrastructure
projects in the five years Yameen was in power. As usual, the
contractual specifics between the Maldives and China were completely
secret. In other countries where situations like this have occurred,
the leader and his family are often so heavily involved in bribery and
corruption that they dare not lose power.

So it was feared that Yameen would use whatever tactics and power he
could to overturn the election, but it seems that he was unable to do
so because Solih's win was so huge.

The first thing Solih did after winning the elect was to meewith with
the Chinese ambassador, where he learned that the Maldives owed the
Chinese $3 billion, not the $1.5 billion he had previously been told.
That’s more revenue than Maldives' government raises in two years – a
staggering figure that makes the Maldives a prime example of how
Chinese loans have swamped smaller economies with loans that can't be
repaid.

Details of the debt – and how much might have been stolen – will only
begin to emerge after Solih takes office on November 17 and his aides
gain complete access to documents Yameen’s government hid from
lawmakers and the public. But information already collected by Solih’s
transition team indicates the liabilities are greater than initially
believed and will soon outpace the country's ability to pay.

It's amazing how China has gotten away with "debt trap diplomacy" in
country after country. They loan a country to build infrastructure
proects that will strategically benefit China and only marginally
benefit the local population. The require that the loan money be used
to purchase parts and services from Chinese firms, and that almost all
workers must be Chinese. So instead of benefiting the local factories
and workers, the money goes back to China to benefit factories and
people there. And then the country still has to repay the loan, which
means that they're repaying the loan twice.

At this point, China's "debt trap diplomacy" has gotten so much
publicity that many countries are now cutting back on Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI) projects. Both Malaysia and Pakistan have recently
cut back or cancelled BRI projects. The latest is Sierra Leone, which
has accumulated more than $220 million in Chinese debt, and last month
canceled a new airport project with Chinese labor and loans.

In the Maldives, Solih has promised to examine all contracts and
leases to see which should be cut back or modified. Because the
Maldives and Sri Lanka are both so strategically important and are
both in the Indian Ocean just off the southern tip of India, both
India and China have similar interests in South China Morning Post and National Herald India and Reuters (11-Oct) and Standard Times Press (Sierra Leone)

Related Articles:

• Sri Lanka constitutional crisis represents opportunity for China (31-Oct-2018)
  
  
  
• China takes control of strategic Hambantota seaport in Sri Lanka, raising concerns in India (11-Dec-2017)
  
  
  
• Report: Sri Lankan government repeatedly torturing and raping Tamils (14-Jan-2016)
  
  
  
• Maldives crisis pits India vs China in the Indian Ocean (07-Feb-2018)
  
  
  
• Maldives in crisis as China-backed incumbent president Yameen loses election (24-Sep-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Sri Lanka, Maithripala Sirisena,
Ranil Wickremesinghe, Mahinda Rajapaksa, India, Hambantota port,
China, Belt and Road Initiative, BRI,
Maldives, Abdulla Yameen, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih,
Malaysia, Pakistan, Sierra Leone

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Ragnarök_62]

(11-09-2018, 11:50 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: *** 10-Nov-18 World View -- China and India compete for influence in Sri Lanka and Maldives constitutional crises



Today, Sri Lanka is still in so much debt that it will never be paid
back.  Still, because of Sri Lanka's strategic importance, both India
and China want to be build the new infrastructure projects.  The
constitutional crisis may appear to be a domestic matter, but it has
important geopolitical implication.  Times of Sri Lanka and Reuters and
Channel News Asia

****
**** New Maldives government begins untangling previous government's secret deals with China
****

The first thing Solih did after winning the elect was to meewith with
the Chinese ambassador, where he learned that the Maldives owed the
Chinese $3 billion, not the $1.5 billion he had previously been told.
That’s more revenue than Maldives' government raises in two years – a
staggering figure that makes the Maldives a prime example of how
Chinese loans have swamped smaller economies with loans that can't be
repaid.


----<snip>
Details of the debt – and how much might have been stolen – will only
begin to emerge after Solih takes office on November 17 and his aides
gain complete access to documents Yameen’s government hid from
lawmakers and the public. But information already collected by Solih’s
transition team indicates the liabilities are greater than initially
believed and will soon outpace the country's ability to pay.

It's amazing how China has gotten away with "debt trap diplomacy" in
country after country.  They loan a country to build infrastructure
proects that will strategically benefit China and only marginally
benefit the local population.  The require that the loan money be used
to purchase parts and services from Chinese firms, and that almost all
workers must be Chinese.  So instead of benefiting the local factories
and workers, the money goes back to China to benefit factories and
people there.  And then the country still has to repay the loan, which
means that they're repaying the loan twice.

<snip>

Debt trap diplomacy isn't as bad as USA regime change policy. Debt trapped countries aren't bombed and don't seem to incur as many deaths as Regime change targets.  Since it's diplomacy, there's a chance other countries can just tell China no, without too severe of consequences.  US diplomacy, as such isn't really diplomacy, but rather a ultimatum to do something. In fact the US uses diplomacy to issue ultimatums to say countries in Latin America to submit to transnational companies strip mine their economies. Sanctions are also another form of diplomacy the US employs. The purpose of sanctions is to ruin the target country's economy, So, all in all, China is far nicer to the World community than the US. At least China's foreign policy seems to help some workers. US foreign policy screws US workers by protecting foreign labor sources.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Nov-18 World View -- Qatar provides $15 million in aid to Gaza, will mediate electricity issues and Cyprus seaport

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Qatar provides $15 million in aid to Gaza, will mediate electricity issues and Cyprus seaport
  
• Israel and Qatar agree to a sea route between Gaza and Cyprus
  

****
**** Qatar provides $15 million in aid to Gaza, will mediate electricity issues and Cyprus seaport
****


Palestinian fishing boats with Gaza City in the background (AP)

On Thursday, three suitcases stuffed with $15 million in cash traveled
in the back seat of a car from Israel to Gaza through the Erez
crossing. This money is being distributed to Gazans, under an
agreement between Qatar, Israel and Gaza, mediated by Egypt.

The money was supplied by Qatar, which is taking an increasing role in
trying to make Gaza more "livable" for the people, in the hope of
reducing the weekly protests.

Many employees working for Hamas in Gaza haven't been paid salaries in
months, because the money for paying the salaries hasn't been made
available to Hamas. It isn't Israel that made the decision to
withhold the money. It was the Palestinian Authority (Fatah), headed
by Mahmoud Abbas. Abbas is supposed to be the head a unity government
of all Palestinians, and Abbas has cut off money to pay the salaries
of Gazans working for Hamas. Israel has supported Abbas's decision,
out of concern that Hamas would use the salary money to fund terrorist
activities.

So Egypt's mediation has led to an agreement where Qatar provides the
money to pay the salaries of Hamas employees. The $15 million that
arrived on Thursday is the first installment of a $90 million total
payout. 27,000 civil servants will receive 50% of a month's salary,
with the amount to gradually increase over the months.

The money is not being given to the United Nations or to Hamas.
Instead, civil servants' salaries are being paid individually, under
the supervision of the Qataris.

Israel has not commented on the payments, but must have approved them
because otherwise the three suitcases of money could not have crossed
into Gaza.

However, the Palestinian Authority said that the $15 million was
"cheap price that Hamas received for the precious blood" of the
Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, and that "Hamas leaders are prepared
to align themselves with the devil in order to remain in power and
undermine the Palestinian national project." Jerusalem Post and Reuters and Jerusalem Post and Middle East Eye and Jerusalem Post


****
**** Israel and Qatar agree to a sea route between Gaza and Cyprus
****

Israel and Qatar have reached agreement on the establishment of a
seaport in Cyprus, under Israeli security supervision, that will be
used to ship goods to Gaza.

There is a dispute over how security will be implemented. Israel has
demanded that its representatives be present at the seaport for manual
inspection of goods entering Gaza to make sure that there are no
weapons. However, Hamas is demanding that inspections take place only
electronically.

That Palestinian Authority under Mahmoud Abbas is completely opposed
to the plan, saying Hamas was not authorized to reach any agreement on
such matters with international parties, and warning that such a move
would “consolidate” the split between the Gaza Strip and West Bank,
and make Gaza a separate Palestinian state in the Hamas-ruled coastal
enclave.

Qatar is also working on a number of other proposals to make Gaza more
livable, including expanding fishing, establishing industrial zones,
and reliable electricity.

It's hoped that by making Gaza more livable, the weekly "March of
Return" protests, of Gazans trying to break through the fence into
Israel and demanding to return to their ancestral homes, will be
reduced. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this hope
is delusional. The protests are being driven by young people just
coming of age, and no agreement by their geezer leaders will change
that. YNet (Israel) and Jerusalem Post and Israel National News

Related Articles:

• Islamic Jihad agrees to Egypt-sponsored ceasefire in Gaza after night of terror (29-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Israel backs down from full-scale attack on Gaza after family escapes rocket (20-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Israel will close crossing point to Gaza in retaliation for incendiary kites (10-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - for now (01-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks (04-May-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Gaza, Israel, Qatar, Egypt,
Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, Cyprus, March of Return

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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[John J. Xenakis]

(11-10-2018, 02:21 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Debt trap diplomacy isn't as bad as USA regime change policy. Debt
> trapped countries aren't bombed and don't seem to incur as many
> deaths as Regime change targets. Since it's diplomacy, there's a
> chance other countries can just tell China no, without too severe
> of consequences. US diplomacy, as such isn't really diplomacy,
> but rather a ultimatum to do something. In fact the US uses
> diplomacy to issue ultimatums to say countries in Latin America to
> submit to transnational companies strip mine their
> economies. Sanctions are also another form of diplomacy the US
> employs. The purpose of sanctions is to ruin the target country's
> economy, So, all in all, China is far nicer to the World community
> than the US. At least China's foreign policy seems to help some
> workers. US foreign policy screws US workers by protecting foreign
> labor sources.

Yeah, it's hell to be policemen of the world, isn't it.

[Ragnarök_62]

(11-10-2018, 11:34 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(11-10-2018, 02:21 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: >   Debt trap diplomacy isn't as bad as USA regime change policy. Debt
>   trapped countries aren't bombed and don't seem to incur as many
>   deaths as Regime change targets.  Since it's diplomacy, there's a
>   chance other countries can just tell China no, without too severe
>   of consequences.  US diplomacy, as such isn't really diplomacy,
>   but rather a ultimatum to do something. In fact the US uses
>   diplomacy to issue ultimatums to say countries in Latin America to
>   submit to transnational companies strip mine their
>   economies. Sanctions are also another form of diplomacy the US
>   employs. The purpose of sanctions is to ruin the target country's
>   economy, So, all in all, China is far nicer to the World community
>   than the US. At least China's foreign policy seems to help some
>   workers. US foreign policy screws US workers by protecting foreign
>   labor sources.  

Yeah, it's hell to be policemen of the world, isn't it.

Yes it is. That's why the US should stop being insane. IOW, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Besides there a a litany of domestic issues that need to be fixed. For example, the US is a shithole country when it comes to infrastructure condition and all of those literal shitholes we have in homeless camps.

[John J. Xenakis]

(11-11-2018, 03:57 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Yes it is. That's why the US should stop being insane. IOW, doing
> the same thing over and over again and expecting a different
> result. Besides there a a litany of domestic issues that need to
> be fixed. For example, the US is a shithole country when it comes
> to infrastructure condition and all of those literal shitholes we
> have in homeless camps.

The same is true for New York City. The police in NYC keep arresting
the same muggers and robbers, and expecting a different result.
That's insane. So get rid of the police and ICE. Besides, NYC is a
shithole city with a litany of domestic issues that need to be fixed.
So stop wasting money on police, and spend it on homeless shelters and
welfare. That's the kind of progressive, liberal thinking we need
these days to solve our problems, and make NYC less shitholy.

[Ragnarök_62]

(11-11-2018, 08:25 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(11-11-2018, 03:57 AM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: >   Yes it is. That's why the US should stop being insane. IOW, doing
>   the same thing over and over again and expecting a different
>   result. Besides there a a litany of domestic issues that need to
>   be fixed. For example, the US is a shithole country when it comes
>   to infrastructure condition and all of those literal shitholes we
>   have in homeless camps.

The same is true for New York City.  The police in NYC keep arresting
the same muggers and robbers, and expecting a different result.
That's insane.  So get rid of the police and ICE.  Besides, NYC is a
shithole city with a litany of domestic issues that need to be fixed.
So stop wasting money on police, and spend it on homeless shelters and
welfare.  That's the kind of progressive, liberal thinking we need
these days to solve our problems, and make NYC less shitholy.

That's the wrong analogy. Feel free to use New York City itself. I have no problem if New York City decided to become a city state. In this example, New York City changed its relation to say Oklahoma. Oklahoma would decide to stay with whatever entities choose to remain part of the USA.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Nov-18 World View -- North Korea plays hardball to get sanctions lifted

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• North Korea plays hardball to get sanctions lifted
  
• North Korea - South Korea reunification talks continue
  

****
**** North Korea plays hardball to get sanctions lifted
****


Kim Jong-un at a mushroom farm (AFP/KCNA)

Now that the US midterm elections have taken place, there's no longer
any reason to pretend that North Korea is ever going to denuclearize,
and so North Korea's child dictator may be taking hard new steps to
pressure the Trump administration to get what he wants: Lifting the
sanctions with no requirement to denuclearize.

Last week North Korea's lead negotiator, Kim Yong-chol, refused to
show up for a scheduled meeting on Thursday with the US chief
negotiator, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. This cancellation was
apparently unexpected, and the State Dept. scrambled to say that the
meeting had been postponed, and would take place "when our respective
schedules permit."

President Trump himself kept up the pretense last week by saying:
"We’re in no rush. We’re in no hurry. ... We’re very happy how it’s
going with North Korea. We think it’s going fine."

This comes at a time when North Korean is becoming increasingly
belligerent in threatening to resume nuclear weapons and ballistic
missile development if the United States continued to refuse to back
down on sanctions. China and Russia are also both pressuring the
United States to agree to ease sanctions.

North Korea is taking no real steps toward denuclearization, even
refusing to take the simple step of providing a list of all its
nuclear development sites. The symbolic steps that it was taking,
dismantling a missile test site that it didn't need anyway, have
apparently ended, based on satellite imagery. And a key facility in
the process of creating nuclear weapons grade uranium, is still
running.

Many people believe that North Korea is continuing development of
nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, lacking only the ability to
openly test the developments. Many people also believe that they have
no intention of stopping that development under any circumstances, but
still hoping that international pressure will force the Trump
administration to left sanctions.

For the time being, the denuclearization pretense is continuing on
both sides. Once the North concludes that the Trump administration
cannot be pressured to lift the sanctions, then they'll probably also
conclude that there's no reason not to resume public nuclear and
missile testing.

North Korea has been playing hardball recently, and that may indicate
that the decision to resume testing is not far off. The "North Korea
crisis" has been out of the news for a while, but one way or another
expect the crisis to be in the news again soon, especially now that
the midterms are over. The Hill and The Diplomat and International Business Times and Daily Beast

****
**** North Korea - South Korea reunification talks continue
****

The office of South Korea’s president Moon Jae-in sent a gift of 200
tons of tangerines to North Korea's president Kim Jong-un on Sunday,
in return for a gift of mushrooms from the North. This gift is part
of a separate, but related, negotiation track going on between South
and North Korea.

More significant than the tangerines is that the The North and South
Korean military completed withdrawing troops and firearms from 22
front-line guard posts on Saturday. There are over 100 guard posts on
both sides, and the plan is to disarm almost all of them by next year.

The Koreas have also been clearing mines from front-line areas and
plan to start in April their first-ever joint search for remains of

Moon would like to push ahead with his more ambitious plans for
engagement, such as reconnecting railways and roads across the border
and normalizing operations at a jointly run factory park. However,
those plans would violate the existing UN sanctions. soldiers killed
during the Korean War.

Moon Jae-in has made it clear that he is extremely anxious to
normalize relations with the North, with the eventual goal of
reunification, and that he's willing to concede almost anything to the
North to accomplish this. This is true even though the North has
never repudiated its plan to conquer the South by force, and reunify
the two Koreas under control of the North. North Korea has an
unbroken record of lying and deception about almost everything, and
removing the guard posts may be a goodwill gesture to the South, but
it also makes it easier for the North's million-man army to cross into
the South, and that's what the North wants.

The North-South negotiation track may be separate from the
denuclearization negotiations, but they do affect one another. With
North Korea now playing hardball in the denuclearization negotiations,
which are completely stalled anyway, South Korean analysts now believe
that a planned trip by Kim Jong-un to Seoul in December is becoming
increasingly less likely.

According to one South Korean analyst:

<QUOTE>"South Korea will continue to try to make room for the
US and North Korea to continue negotiations and ease tensions
between the countries through Kim Jong-un’s visit to Seoul.

But for Kim, visiting Seoul without any progress in the US-North
Korea relations could be a burden because it would likely draw
more opposition from South Korea’s conservatives and more
skepticism from the US. I think Kim will decide on his visit to
Seoul after the high-level meeting between Pompeo and
Kim."<END QUOTE>

Assuming, or course, that the latter meeting takes place.

However, another South Korean analyst said that there's another way to
convince Kim to make his promised visit to Seoul: "I think North Korea
would want to come to Seoul on the back of some progress in its
relations with the US so that it could gain economic rewards --
economic assistance, for example -- from South Korea." Korea Herald
and AP and Russia Today and Korea Herald

Related Articles:

• US and South Korea resume some military marine drills, despite North's objections (05-Nov-2018)
  
  
• N. Korea's Kim Jong-un met Pompeo in a new Rolls-Royce Phantom, violating sanctions (13-Oct-2018)
  
  
• China, Russia demand that that some North Korea sanctions be lifted (29-Sep-2018)
  
  
• US imposes new North Korea sanctions on Chinese and Russian shipping companies (17-Aug-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
South Korea, Moon Jae-in, Kim Yong-chol, Mike Pompeo

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[pbrower2a]

It may be my opinion -- but I never trusted Kim Jong-Un to divest himself of his favorite toys (missiles and nukes). I think he pulled a real con job on President Trump.

We have a deal with a character who has basically said "Trust me!" -- and has never given anyone cause to trust him. The next President (and don't fool yourself -- Donald Trump will be a one-term President because fewer people now in high public office have any desire to get President Trump re-elected, and those with sch desires are not going to risk legal problems to get him re-elected) will have a messy situation with North Korea.

There needs be something to lose. Let us start with this reality: both the Republic of Korea and the People's Republic of China have stated their desire for a nuclear-free Korean peninsula. If I were President I would be delighted to deliver such to both political entities. That implies of course that both countries are in on the deal.

I would be delighted to see Chinese police officials (yes, their secret police) snooping around both parts of Korea for proscribed weapons. The Russian FSB? They too, and I'd want the Russians in on the negotiations. Putin won't be around forever.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Nov-18 World View -- Eight people killed in botched Israeli military operation in Gaza

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Eight people killed in botched Israeli military operation in Gaza
  
• Palestinians demand 'revenge', but Hamas backs off from war
  

****
**** Eight people killed in botched Israeli military operation in Gaza
****


Palestinians stand next to the vehicle used in Sunday's military operation and destroyed by Israeli aircraft missiles on Sunday after the Israeli force had fled the scene. (AFP)

An Israeli army officer and seven Palestinians were killed in a
gunfight that followed a botched Israeli army military undercover
operation in Gaza on Sunday evening.

Israeli special forces members wore women's clothing to avoid
detection, and crossed the border into Gaza. This follows another
"cloak and dagger" operation on Thursday, when a car crossed into Gaza
carrying three suitcases in the back seat stuffed with $15 million in cash from Qatar.

When the car was two miles into Gaza, near Khan Younis, fighters of
the Izzedine Al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, stopped
the car and asked to see ID cards. A gunfight ensued, killing one
Israeli military officer, who hasn't been identified, and seven
Palestinians. One of the Palestinians was an Al-Qassam Brigades
senior command, Noureddin Mohammad Salama Baraka, 37.

Due to the secrecy of the operation, Israel has not revealed specific
purpose of the mission. According to one reported, it was an
intelligence gathering operation that went wrong. According to
another report, the objective was to kill Baraka, although this is
specifically denied by Israel, saying that the operation was "not
intended to kill or abduct terrorists, but to strengthen Israeli
security."

The Israeli car fled the scene, followed by Al-Qassam fighters, who
were bombed from the air by an extraction operation that rescued the
Israelis with a helicopter. Guardian (London) and Jerusalem Post and International Mideast Media Center (Palestine) and AP

****
**** Palestinians demand 'revenge', but Hamas backs off from war
****

In the worst bout of fighting since the end of the 67-day war between
Israel and Gaza in 2014, Palestinians launched over 200 rockets and
mortar bombs into Israel on Monday. One mortar bomb hit a bus,
wounding an Israeli. At least seven Israelis were wounded by other
rocket strikes.

Israeli tanks and fighter jets retaliated by bombing sites across
Gaza. Palestinian officials said that at least three people,
including two militants, were killed. Israeli missiles also struck
and destroyed Gaza's Al-Aqsa television station, as well as a number
of apartment buildings believed to house Hamas militants.

This intense exchange of fire occurred just two days after $15 million
in money from Qatar entered Gaza, paying civil service workers'
salaries. This money was supposed to help bring calm, but it's worth
noting that the money to pay civil service workers' salaries was
blocked for months not by Israel but by Mahmoud Abbas and the
Palestinian Authority. Abbas strongly opposed the infilitration of
Qatari money last week, as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause, and
may be pleased with Monday's exchange of fire.

Reports are that the Israeli army is preparing for all-out war in
Gaza, renewing the 2014 summer Gaza war, especially after Hamas
threatened on Monday that Israel will pay a “heavy price” for the
operation.

However, Egypt and the UN, which in the past have been mediators
between Israel and Hamas are hoping to bring about a ceasefire. In
addition, a number of analysts are saying that Hamas doesn't want a
war with Israel, at least not at this time, or to give Israel an
excuse to launch a major military operation in Gaza.

Besides saying that Israel will pay a "heavy price," Hamas's rhetoric
has not gone further to say that the incident will affect efforts to
reach a truce agreement with Israel. Also, Hamas leaders have not
accused Israel of sabotaging the ongoing efforts to achieve a truce in
the Gaza Strip. Nor have they indicated that Hamas views the incident,
which took place near Khan Younis, as a trigger for another war with
Israel.

Hamas and militants in Gaza have been attacking Israel with rockets
that have no guidance systems. Reports indicate that they also
possess an arsenal of middle range and long-range missiles that reach
cities all across Israel, but they have refrained from using them.

Hamas issued a statement saying, "The resistance last night taught the
enemy a harsh lesson and turned its intelligence system into the
laughing stock of the world." The statement claimed that Hamas scored
a major victory over the Israelis, who were forced to flee after being
spotted by Hamas militants.

What these statements mean is that the leaders of Hamas have much to
lose at this time in a war with Israel, especially with the influx of
Qatari money and promises of further concessions. That means that
there probably won't be a new Gaza war, at least for a while.

As I've written many times, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war refighting the 1948 war
between Jews and Arabs that followed the partitioning of Palestine and
the creation of the state of Israel. The war will also pit Sunnis
versus Shias, and various ethnic groups against each other.
Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of
Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni
Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India,
Russia and Iran. Jerusalem Post (11-Nov) and Times of Israel and Jerusalem Post and Israel National News

Related Articles:

• Qatar provides $15 million in aid to Gaza, will mediate electricity issues and Cyprus seaport (11-Nov-2018)
  
  
• Islamic Jihad agrees to Egypt-sponsored ceasefire in Gaza after night of terror (29-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Israel backs down from full-scale attack on Gaza after family escapes rocket (20-Oct-2018)
  
  
• Israel will close crossing point to Gaza in retaliation for incendiary kites (10-Jul-2018)
  
  
• Israel hopeful that Egypt's mediation has ended Gaza violence - for now (01-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks (04-May-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Gaza, Hamas,
Izzedine Al-Qassam Brigades, Noureddin Mohammad Salama Baraka,
Al-Aqsa television, Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority,
Egypt, Qatar

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Nov-18 World View -- Italy's Libya peace talk conference ends in drama but no resolution

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Italy's Libya peace talk conference ends in drama but no resolution
  
• Split in Libya reflects the fault line in the Arab world
  

****
**** Italy's Libya peace talk conference ends in drama but no resolution
****


Fayez al-Serraj (L), Giuseppe Conte © and Khalifa Haftar. Conte got them to shake hands and smile, even though al-Serraj and Haftar hate each other (AFP)

Seven years after the fall of long-time dictator Muammar Gaddafi,
Libya now has two governments. In the West, including the capital
city Tripoli, Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj leads a weak government,
known as the Government of National Accord (GNA), internationally
recognized by America, Europe and the United Nations.

Most of the east of Libya is ruled by Khalifa Haftar, a military
strongman and former Gaddafi ally, who is considered an international
"renegade." There are fears that a war will break out between the
eastern and western factions at some time in the near future.

It's doubtful that most Europeans care deeply who is in charge of
Libya, but one thing that they do care deeply about is the flow of
migrants from Libya to Europe. For that reason, the Europeans want to
see a single government in Libya, and a government with which it can
negotiate to keep the migrant flow under control.

Libya's former colonial power, Italy, hosted a conference in Palermo
on Tuesday, to bring all interested parties together, with the
objective of having an election for the leader of a unified
government.

The conference was hosted by Italy's prime minister Giuseppe Conte.
About 20 countries are participating in the conference, including
representatives from the US, European governments and Arab countries.
Top names in attendance include Egypt's president Abdel-Fattah
el-Sisi, Russia's prime minister Dmitry Medvedev, European Council
President Donald Tusk and EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini.

The conference didn't accomplish much, but there was a lot of drama.

Originally, Haftar refused to say whether he would even come to
Palermo. Then Haftar did arrive, but on Tuesday said that he would
not attend the conference, choosing instead to "hold a series of
meetings with presidents of regional countries to discuss the latest
national and international developments" on the sidelines.

So then Haftar attended a meeting on the sidelines of conference, also
attended by Fayez al-Serraj, as well as leaders of France, Russia and
Italy.

However, Turkey was not invited to that particular meeting. Turkey's
vice president Fuat Oktay stormed out of the international conference,
blaming Conte for "attempts to keep Turkey out of the process" in
Libya.

At the end of the conference, there was no statement issued. But the
parties agreed that an election previously scheduled for December
would not be held, but would be postponed to May of next year. And
many people considered the conference a great success, simply because
Fayez al-Serraj and Khalifa Haftar smiled and shook hands. Deutsche Welle and Hurriyet Daily News (Turkey) and Middle East Eye and Reuters


****
**** Split in Libya reflects the fault line in the Arab world
****

One reason that the split between east and west Libya hasn't been
resolved is their supporters are split along the same growing fault
line that became apparent several years ago.

Turkey, Qatar and Italy all support the western GNA government of
Fayez al-Serraj, and are supportive of Islamists, including the Muslim
Brotherhood. Russia, France, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
support Haftar, who is an anti-Islamist military man.

This split in the Arab world has been growing in recent years. Recall
that in June of last year, several Arab states, including Saudi
Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt and United Arab Emirates (UAE), broke relations
with Qatar and imposed an air, sea and land blockade on Qatar.
The blockade is still in place, with no
end in sight, despite international attempts to resolve it.

More recently, the assassination of Washington Post columnist Jamal
Khashoggi, apparently by a Saudi hit squad, has continued as an
international incident, adding more tensions between Saudi Arabia
versus Turkey and Qatar.

This deepening split among the Arab and Mideast nations makes it all
the more unlikely that agreement will be reached on a unified
government in Libya.

The situation is complicated still further by signs that Russia is
deepening its military involvement in Libya, sending in Vladimir
Putin's "private" military companies (PMCs), as he has done in Syria
and Central African Republic. (See "7-Nov-18 World View -- Suspicions grow about Russia's Wagner PMC mercenary group in Central African Republic"
)

Putin has taken an interest in Libya at least since the overthrow of
Gaddafi in 2011, and has actively supported Khalifa Haftar. There have
already been military clashes between Haftar's forces and militias
around Tripoli in the West, and the involvement of Russia makes Syrian
war situation more likely than an election. Al-Jazeera (Qatar) and Meduza (Russia) and Jamestown


Related Articles

• Russia denies reports of Russian special forces in eastern Libya (17-Mar-2017)
  
  
• A look back at Libya in 2011 as the West debates another military intervention (05-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Massive refugee crisis in Libya increases international calls for intervention (02-Mar-2011)
  
  
• With Libya in chaos, migrant deal with Italy collapses (16-Jan-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Libya, Italy, Giuseppe Conte,
Government of National Accord, GNA, Fayez al-Serraj,
Khalifa Haftar, Turkey, Fuat Oktay,
Turkey, Qatar, Muslim Brotherhood, Russia, France, Egypt,
United Arab Emirates, UAE,
Jamal Khashoggi, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Private Military Companies, PMCs, Central African Republic, CAR

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Nov-18 World View -- China and Australia compete for influence at APEC meeting in Papau New Guinea (PNG)

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• 500 US marines and other foreign troops arrive in PNG for APEC meeting
  
• China-Australia tensions high at APEC, after Australia's 'pivot to the Pacific'
  

****
**** 500 US marines and other foreign troops arrive in PNG for APEC meeting
****


The new Port Moresby International Convention Center, which will host the APEC summit, was built with Chinese aid money.

The USS Green Bay amphibious transport dock ship arrived in Port
Moresby, the capital city of Papua New Guinea (PNG), on Wednesday,
with 500 US marines and US Navy servicemen to provide security and
support for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’
Summit being held later this week.

About 4,000 military personnel, around half of them foreign, will work
with hundreds of police to patrol Port Moresby for APEC, which will
attract representatives from 21 nations.

There is a 1,500-strong Australian Defense Force (ADF) contingent,
along with RAAF F/A-18 Super Hornet fighters, surveillance aircraft
and a helicopter carrier moored in Port Moresby harbor. Vessels from
Australia, New Zealand and the US will guard the capital's shores, and
all three countries have provided special forces. Working alongside
them in an operation that has taken more than a year to plan will be
about 2,000 Papua New Guinea (PNG) troops.

Much of the summit will take place in a $35 million convention centre
built with Chinese aid and Beijing has donated nine fire engines,
along with 50 coaches and 35 mini buses for use at the event.
However, Chinese troops were excluded from the security forces.

Papua New Guinea (PNG) is an island nation near Australia, which
provides it regularly with substantial aid. All of this security is
considered necessary because PNG is one of poorest, most corrupt, and
most dangerous countries in the world. Feared street gangs known as
"raskols" have made car jackings common and the country has among the
highest rates of rape and domestic violence in the world. PNG has a
population of 8 million — speaking 800 distinct languages and spread
out across some 600 islands. With 15,000 delegates expected at the
summit, security is essential. And due to a lack of hotel
accommodations, many will sleep in the three cruise liners docked at
the port.

In view of the corruption, poverty and street violence, many people
are concerned that PNG will not be able to pull this summit meeting
off. It's hoped that the massive influx of troops from the US,
Australia and New Zealand, as well as support from other countries,
will make the meeting a success.

Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, or APEC, is a forum for
facilitating economic growth, cooperation, trade and investment in the
Asia-Pacific region. The 21 members are the United States, Australia,
Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan,
Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines,
Russia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Donald Trump will not be attending the conference, much to the relief,
according to some reports, of the summit organizers. Instead, Mike
Pence will be representing to the United States. Stars and Stripes and Asia Pacific Report and AFP and Guardian (London)

****
**** China-Australia tensions high at APEC, after Australia's 'pivot to the Pacific'
****

Despite PNG's weak economy, high unemployment, corruption and street
violence, China still has considerable interest in PNG's vast swathes
of timber, and huge mineral, oil and gas deposits, which China is
looking to exploit.

China's investments in the region as part of its Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI) grew to $2.46 billion in the last year alone for
infrastructure projects such as roads and seaports.

Australia has become alarmed by this incursion into its sphere of
influence. As a result, prime minister Scott Morrison is announcing a
new "Pivot to the Pacific" program, where Australia will provide
grants and long-term loans for $2 billion for "high priority"
projects, inclding telecommunications, energy, transport and water.

Morrison said:

<QUOTE>"Australia has an abiding interest in a Southwest
Pacific that is secure strategically, stable economically and
sovereign politically. This is not just our region, or our
neighborhood. It's our home."<END QUOTE>

This announcement infuriated the Chinese, who must see it as a threat
to their unimpeded access to the region's resources that China wishes
to exploit. China's vice foreign minister Zheng Zeguang issued a
harsh response, accusing Australia of a "cold war mentality":

<QUOTE>"The Pacific Island region is not a sphere of
influence of any country.

[Australia should] objectively look at the relations between China
and the Pacific Island countries and to abandon Cold War mentality
and the zero-sum game mentality, which are both outdated. ...

Other countries should not obstruct China's friendly cooperation
and exchanges with the island nations. Of course, they have no
way to obstruct this cooperation and these
exchanges."<END QUOTE>

The government of PNG says that it has no intention at all of choosing
one of China or Australia over the other. It also says that it is
ready to accept aid and donations from all sides.

PNG's prime minister Peter O'Neill says that he is willing to play
peacemaker at the APEC summit. "It's not for me to address either of
those countries through the media as to what they should do, but as I
have said, for us, they are great friends of this country. So we will
do all we can to ensure, if we can, that there are no conflicts, to
the extent possible," he said. Australian Broadcasting and South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and Australian Broadcasting (8-Nov) and Time

Related Articles

• Australia passes foreign influence laws, targeting China (29-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Australia-China relations in crisis after revelation of Chinese bribery scandal (24-May-2018)
  
  
• New book documents extensive Chinese infiltration into Australia's organizations (26-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Concerns grow over China's covert infiltration into New Zealand's government (16-Feb-2018)
  
  
• China-Australia relations plummet over China's illegal militarization of South China Sea (16-Dec-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Papua New Guinea, PNG, China, Australia,
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Leaders' Summit, APEC,
USS Green Bay, Australian Defence Force, ADF, New Zealand,
Belt and Road Initiative, BRI, Zheng Zeguang, Peter O'Neill

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

Mike Pence represents globalist interests within the administration. President Trump should reconnect with the people and limit Pence's influence, and take a more personal hand in governing the country like the way he promised to do during the 2016 election. Human Rights Tyranny is a world cancer infecting nations around the world. Only Russia, China, Iran, Syria and Myanmar have taken measures to combat it.

[pbrower2a]

(11-15-2018, 12:51 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Mike Pence represents globalist interests within the administration. President Trump should reconnect with the people and limit Pence's influence, and take a more personal hand in governing the country like the way he promised to do during the 2016 election. Human Rights Tyranny is a world cancer infecting nations around the world. Only Russia, China, Iran, Syria and Myanmar have taken measures to combat it.

How about North Korea? Cuba? Saudi Arabia? Eritrea? Turkmenistan? Iran?

Enjoy yourself!

[Cynic Hero '86]

(11-14-2018, 12:27 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: Putin has taken an interest in Libya at least since the overthrow of
Gaddafi in 2011, and has actively supported Khalifa Haftar.  There have
already been military clashes between Haftar's forces and militias
around Tripoli in the West, and the involvement of Russia makes Syrian
war situation more likely than an election.  Al-Jazeera (Qatar) and Meduza (Russia) and Jamestown

 

Putin is a good person. He's been leading the fight against globalist tyranny since 1999.