Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 17-Oct-16 World View -- Iraq begins battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iraq begins battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS
  
• Sectarian violence may interfere with recapture of Mosul
  

****
**** Iraq begins battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS
****


ISIS (Reuters)

Iraq has announced that a major long-awaited battle has begun to
recapture Mosul, the capital city of the province of Nineveh, from the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said in a televised statement
early Monday:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Our dearest people in Nineveh province, the victory
> bell has rung, and the operations to liberate Mosul have begun. I
> am announcing today the beginning of these heroic operations to
> liberate you from the brutality and terrorism of ISIS. God
> willing, we will meet soon on the ground of Mosul where we will
> all celebrate the liberation and your freedom."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The US State Department tweeted: "Godspeed to the heroic Iraqi forces,
Kurdish #Peshmerga, and #Nineveh volunteers. We are proud to stand
with you in this historic operation."

The US recently announced the deployment of 600 additional troops to
aid in the battle, bringing the number of US personnel to more than
5,200.

On Sunday morning, Iraqi aircraft dropped thousands of leaflets over
Mosul, advising residents how to protect themselves. The leaflets
said, "The Mosul liberation operation is close and it is time to clean
Iraq of Daesh (ISIS)," and advised residents "to avoid ISIS shelters,
try to stay indoors and shut doors and windows."

Iraq's government is hoping for a quick victory and to avoid a
humanitarian disaster. There are some 1.5 million people in Mosul,
and Iraqi officials expect some 700,000 of them to flee Mosul. These
people will have to be given a place to live and humanitarian aid.

ISIS captured Mosul in June 2014, when the Iraqi army dropped their
weapons and fled, allowing ISIS to take the city almost without firing
a shot. The loss of ISIS was a major catastrophe for Iraq, not only
for the loss of the city, but also because ISIS took control of vast
storehouses of American weapons, and also looted the banks of billions
of dollars. CNN and Rudaw (Iraq-Kurdistan)

Related Articles

• Iraq, ISIS and the West prepare for the Great Battle for Mosul to begin soon (01-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Iraq in major crisis after catastrophic fall of Mosul to ISIS (11-Jun-2014)
  
  
• In repeat of Mosul disaster, Iraqi army abandoned US weapons in Ramadi (20-May-2015)
  

****
**** Sectarian violence may interfere with recapture of Mosul
****

The Mosul operation is becoming as much a political battle as
a military battle.

The main issue is the use of Shia militias backed by Iran. When ISIS
attacked the city of Ramadi, the Iraq army initially fled from ISIS
forces, as they did in Mosul. So for the recapture of Ramadi, Tikrit
and Fallujah, Iraq army forces were accompanied by Shia militias.
After the cities were recaptured, the pro-Iranian Shia forces
committed sectarian violence against the Sunni residents of the
cities.

Now many Sunni Muslims fear a repeat of that sectarian violence if
Shia militias are permitted to participate in the military operation.
This apparently is the expectation of the some of the Shia militias
themselves. The leader of the pro-Iranian Ahl al-Haq militia Qais
al-Khazali recently said that "the battle of Mosul is revenge for the
killing of Hussein," referring to Hussein ibn Ali (or Husayn ibn Ali)
who is considered to be a revered Shia saint who was killed in 680 at
the Battle of Karbala, which was the seminal battle that resulted in
the Sunni-Shia split.

For this reason, Sunni tribal leaders in Nineveh are demanding that
Shia militias be kept out of Nineveh and Mosul. According to one
tribal leader, "we are concerned and fear for what will happen after
ISIS. The possibility of personal revenge makes people afraid."

According to officials in Turkey, numerous groups might participate in
the operation: the U.S.-led coalition, Iraqi soldiers, Kurdistan
Regional Government (KRG) peshmergas, Iranian forces, Shia forces,
Turkey-backed local forces and even PKK terrorists. The US-led
coalition could include forces from Britain, France, Australia and
Denmark.

Turkey agrees that Shia militias should not be involved in the
recapture of Mosul, and they add that the same is true of Kurdish
militias. Defense Minister Fikri Isik warns about the use of both
Shia and Kurdish militias, and also offers Turkey's help:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"If you try to clear Mosul [from jihadists] with
> Shiite militias, you may start new chaos and a mess that would
> last 100 years. We are talking about these with the U.S. What we
> observe so far is that what we have been saying is being taken
> into account. ...
>
> Let us give support to you for an operation to be conducted with
> local groups of this region. If you are to clear Raqqa, don’t do
> it with the PKK [Kurdistan Workers’ Party] or PYD [Democratic
> Union Party] because they could cause bigger problems after Daesh
> goes from the city."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Turkey has three main concerns: first, a potential sectarian rift
between Sunnis and Shias, second, a new refugee crisis, and third,
creation of a vacuum that would other terror groups to grow.

However, Iraq is strongly opposed to Turkey's participation.

Some analysts are questioning whether Iraq's army can be successful in
recapturing Mosul, unless it has the help of Shia, Kurdish and
Turkish-backed forces. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Rudaw (Iraq - Kurds) and Daily Sabah (Ankara)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Nineveh, Mosul, Haider al-Abadi,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Iran, Ahl al-Haq, Qais al-Khazali,
Ramadi, Tikrit, Fallujah, Turkey, Fikri Isik

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-Oct-16 World View -- Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participation in Mosul operation

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participation in Mosul operation
  
• Turkey views the Mosul operation as a security threat to Turkey
  
• ISIS may be given a chance to escape to Syria
  

****
**** Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participation in Mosul operation
****


Kurdish Peshmerga forces in operation to liberate Mosul on Monday (Anadolu)

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan insisted on Monday that Turkey
will take part in the operation to recapture Mosul from the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh):

> [indent]<QUOTE>"They say Turkey should not take part in the
> operation. How can Turkey not take part in the operation when it
> shares a 350-kilometer border with Iraq and receives all the
> terror threats from there? We have brothers in Mosul, Arabs,
> Turkmens and Kurds. If you go further north, we have
> relatives."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Turkish troops have been operating since 2014 in the Bashiqa military
base in northern Iraq near Mosul, along the border with Turkey.
Turkey has an estimated 2,000 troops in Iraq, around 500 of them in
Bashiqa training about 1,000-2,000 Sunni Iraqi militia fighters in
preparation for the Mosul operation.

On Thursday of last week, Iraq's foreign ministry in Baghdad summoned
the Turkish ambassador. Iraq said that the Turkish forces in Bashiqa
were "occupying forces" and "should be immediately withdrawn." Turkey
refused to withdraw, and was able to produce a video of a December
2014 video in which Iraq's prime minister Haider al-Abadi asked for
"military, intelligence, arms and training support" from Turkey.
Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Anadolu (Turkey) and Daily Sabah (Ankara)

****
**** Turkey views the Mosul operation as a security threat to Turkey
****

In Thursday's statement, Erdogan reaffirmed that Turkey will do what
is necessary in Mosul, and will not take directions from Iraq's prime
minister.

Turkish officials are saying that the Mosul operation is a threat
to the security of Turkey for several reasons:

• There are 1.2 million civilians in Mosul, and if there's
  a humanitarian disaster and they start fleeing, many of them
  will flee to Turkey.
  
  
• Some of the forces fighting in the Mosul operation are Iran-backed
  Shia militias known as Hashid Shaabi or Popular Mobilization Forces
  (PMF). The PMF participated in the recapture of Ramadi and Tikrit
  from ISIS, and in each case conducted bloody atrocities among the
  Sunni Muslim civilians in those towns. Turkey's officials state that
  they're not going to permit the PMF to do the same thing in Mosul, and
  risk a wider Sunni-Shia sectarian war. Iraq has responded by
  promising that the PMF forces will take part in the operation, but
  will not be permitted to enter Mosul itself.
  
  
• Some of the forces fighting in the Mosul operation are Kurdish
  Peshmerga militia forces. These are the so-called moderate Kurdish
  forces, as opposed to the separatist Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)
  which is internationally recognized as a terrorist group, and has
  conducted numerous terrorist attacks within Turkey. Turkey demands
  that Kurdish forces not be permitted to participate in the Mosul
  operation, just as Turkey's Operation Euphrates Shield prevented
  Kurdish forces from expanding their territory in Syria. Iraq has
  responded by promising that the Kurdish Peshmerga forces will take
  part in the operation, but will not be permitted to enter Mosul
  itself.
  
  
• As suggested by Erdogan's statement quoted above, Turkey had a
  very close and influential relationship with Mosul prior to the ISIS
  takeover. Erdogan wants to make sure that Turkey regains that
  influence after Mosul is recaptured.

The concerns are real. The Mosul operation will be led by Iraq's army
(the one that dropped their guns and fled for their lives as ISIS
fighters approached Mosul in 2014). The Iraqi force of 30,000
soldiers will have other participants besides the Iraqi army -- the
US-led coalition, Turkey, Sunni tribes, Kurds, Iran, and Shia
militias. These participants have a common objective -- to recapture
Mosul from ISIS. However, once the recapture is complete, these
participants will all have different objectives. In particular, just
as Turkey wants to retain its influence in Mosul, the other
participants will also want to maximize their own influence.

So far, none of these conflicting objectives has influenced the first
day of the military operation. But it's still possible that this
situation will cause major problems down the road. CNN and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and BBC

Related Articles

• Iraq begins battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS (17-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Iraq, ISIS and the West prepare for the Great Battle for Mosul to begin soon (01-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
  

****
**** ISIS may be given a chance to escape to Syria
****

Among all the analyst opinions, there seems to be little doubt that
the recapture of Mosul will succeed. There are a wide variety of
opinions on how long it will take, how many civilians will be killed,
how much of the city will be destroyed, how big the humanitarian
disaster will be, and whether new terror groups will fill the vacuum
when ISIS is gone. But analysts seem unanimous in believing that the
Iraqi force of 30,000, backed by US-coalition airstrikes, will succeed
in defeating the 3,000 to 4,500 ISIS militants in Mosul.

The loss of Mosul will be a huge symbolic loss for ISIS. It's the
largest city that ISIS has captured -- even larger than Raqqa in
Syria. Even more important, it's the city where ISIS leader Abu Omar
al-Baghdadi declared his "caliphate."

However, some analysts say that Iraq is hoping that ISIS will flee
without fighting. Iraqi forces have been surrounding Mosul and
blocking exits from the north, east and south, but they're leaving a
corridor open to the west, hoping that ISIS fighters will take
advantage of it and flee to ISIS headquarters in Raqqa in Syria.

According to one analyst, ISIS commanders are aware that they're going
to lose the battle, and that many of their forces will be killed, so
they may decide to withdraw their best fighters, and leave the
newbies behind to fight and be killed.

Other analysts aren't so sure. One of them points out that ISIS
fighters fleeing to the west will be easy targets for US airstrikes,
and so ISIS commanders may feel they have no choice but to stand and
fight. Washington Post and Business Insider (Australia) and Economist


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Bashiqa military base, Haider al-Abadi, Abu Omar al-Baghdadi,
Hashid Shaabi, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF,
Peshmerga, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK, Operation Euphrates Shield

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-Oct-16 World View -- Egypt turns to Iran for oil after Saudi relationship deteriorates over Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Egypt votes for two contradictory UN Security Council proposals on Syria
  
• Saudis retaliate against Egypt, which may turn to Iran for oil
  

****
**** Egypt votes for two contradictory UN Security Council proposals on Syria
****


From 2015: Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz, left, walks with Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Riyadh (Reuters)

The war in Syria, and particularly the targeting by Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad of millions of innocent Sunni Arab civilians, has
caused a split in the Arab community, particularly between Saudi
Arabia and Egypt. This has led to Egypt's representative voting for
two contradictory UN Security Council resolutions.

The regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has been targeting
millions of innocent Sunni women and children with barrel bombs,
chemical weapons (chlorine gas), phosphorous bombs, cluster bombs and
bunker bombs. Thousands of Sunni jihadists from dozens of countries
around the world came to Syria to fight al-Assad, resulting in the
creation of the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).
Al-Assad, backed by Russia, Hezbollah and Iran, has not only created
ISIS, but he's caused millions of Syrians to flee their homes into
neighboring countries, including over a million that have flooded into
Europe, causing the biggest refugee crisis since the end of WW II.
Al-Assad and the Russians have created the greatest geopolitical
disaster so far this century.

Although several Western politicians have denounced al-Assad, Russia
and Iran as war criminals and guilty of crimes against humanity, the
UN Security Council has been powerless to do anything to stop
al-Assad's war of extermination.

The farcical impotence of the UN Security Council has been evident for
months, especially as al-Assad and the Russians have made it clear
that they plan to destroy east Aleppo and kill as many of the 250,000
civilians as they can.

On October 8, France submitted a proposal to the UNSC for a no-fly
zone over Aleppo to protect civilians. Russia vetoed this proposal,
and then submitted its own proposal that all the "terrorists" be
killed in Aleppo before a ceasefire can begin.

The farce reached new heights when the ambassador from Egypt supported
both proposals. Egypt was joined by Russia, China, and Venezuela in
its support for the Russian resolution. Egypt's ambassador Amr Abul
Atta defended the two votes:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Egypt backs all efforts aimed at stopping the Syrian
> people’s tragedy. It voted for both resolutions based on their
> content, not political bidding that has become a hindrance to the
> Security Council’s work.
>
> Egypt voted for halting deliberate targeting of Syrian civilians,
> backing for humanitarian access and cessation of hostilities
> according to relevant Security Council resolutions."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Saudi Arabia severely criticized Egypt's vote supporting the Russian
resolution. Saudi's ambassador Abdallah Al-Mouallimi said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Egyptian vote represents the Egyptian position
> and not the Arab one. It was painful to see that the Senegal and
> Malaysian positions were closer to the Arab consensus on Syria
> compared to that of an Arab representative."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Another Saudi official tweeted: "Sorry Egypt. But voting for the
Russian draft resolution makes me doubt you are the mother of Arabs
and the world." Daily News Egypt
and Gulf News (Dubai) and Asharq Al-Awsat (London) and Egypt Independent

Related Articles

• From 2013: The history of how Syria's Bashar al-Assad created ISIS (07-Sep-2016)
  
  
• US, UK, UN officials accuse Syria and Russia of barbarism and war crimes (27-Sep-2016)
  

****
**** Saudis retaliate against Egypt, which may turn to Iran for oil
****

Following Egypt's vote in the UN Security Council, the Saudi
government-owned oil company Aramco suspended its oil deliveries to
Egypt, possibly violating a five-year agreement.

Aramco is under a commercial contract to deliver 700,000 tonnes of
refined oil products to Egypt at reduced prices. The $23 billion
agreement was signed between Saudi Aramco and Egyptian General
Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) during the visit of Saudi King Salman to
Egypt last year.

Iran has offered Egypt refined oil products to replace the products
that the Saudis will not deliver.

Relations between Egypt and the Gulf Arab states changed markedly
after Egypt's army coup in 2013 that overthrew the democratically
elected Mohammed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government. Both
Qatar and Turkey are allied with the Muslim Brotherhood, and the coup
turned both countries against Egypt. Qatar had been providing aid to
the Morsi government, but that aid stopped, and Saudi Arabia stepped
in to help Egypt.

Turkey has remained relentlessly hostile to Egypt's current president
Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi who, as an army general, led the coup that
ousted Morsi. Saudi Arabia has attempted to play a mediating role
between Egypt on the one hand and Turkey and Qatar on the other hand.

However, the Saudi mediating effort is apparently wearing thin, as the
long-standing differences between the two countries have now become
painfully public because of the UN Security Council vote.

However, long-time readers know that Generational Dynamics predicts
that Russia, Iran and India will be allies of the West in the
approaching Clash of Civilizations world war against China, Pakistan,
Saudi Arabia and the Sunni Muslim countries.

These new developments in the Mideast, along with Egypt's good
relationship with Israel and its new relationship with Iran may appear
to signal that Egypt will be allied the West. However, the situation
is more complicated than first appears. As the Saudis themselves have
been pointing out, their disagreement is with Egypt's government, not
with Egypt's people. Egypt is badly split following the ouster of
Mohammed Morsi, and this split will be carried into any major Mideast
war or world war. MEMRI and
Middle East Eye and Hellenic Shipping News and Middle East Eye

Related Articles

• Morsi facing treason charge as millions demonstrate in Egypt (27-Jul-2013)
  
  
• Egypt inflames tensions with Qatar with al-Jazeera reporter verdicts (30-Aug-2015)
  
  
• Saudi King Salman snubs Obama - again - as he arrives for Saudi Arabia summit (21-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Obama repudiates the Carter doctrine at bizarre GCC meeting (15-May-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey,
Mohammed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, A;e[[p.
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Russia, Hezbollah, Iran, Amr Abul Atta, Abdallah Al-Mouallimi, Aramco

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Oct-16 World View -- Unrealistic expectations surround the battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Unrealistic expectations surround the battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS
  
• Turkey views Iraq and Syria through the lens of World War I and the Ottoman Empire
  

****
**** Unrealistic expectations surround the battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS
****


Homes destroyed by ISIS east of Mosul (Reuters)

With the Iraq army's great battle to recapture Mosul from the
so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) under way since
Monday, politicians and military leaders are issuing the confident
statements that things are going well. The press has been reporting
that the military operation is already "ahead of schedule," which
presumably means that the schedule for the first day or two was
specifically designed so that the army couldn't fail.

The Iraqi politicians and military leaders are claiming not only to be
ahead of schedule, but also to have everyone's agreement on how the
battle will go. Specifically, Turkey's troops will not take part at
all, and when the final battles are being fought, then the Kurdish
militias and the Iran-backed Shia militias will wait outside Mosul,
and only the Iraqi army will enter Mosul. It sounds an awful lot like
a fairy tale.

The Iraqi force of 30,000 soldiers will consist of many groups of
participants -- the US-led coalition, Turkey, Sunni tribes, Kurds,
Iran, and Shia militias. These participants all save defeating ISIS
as an objective, but when the battle is over, they all want to have as
much influence in Mosul and control over events as possible. To
imagine that all these other participants will simply cede control to
the Iraq army seems like a fantasy.

We've already had the following:

• Turkish troops are already in training roles in Bashiqa
  military camp in northern Iraq, and Turkey's president Recep Tayyip
  Erdogan has already said, "How can Turkey not take part in the
  operation?"
  
  
• Leaders of the Iran-backed Shia militias known as the Popular
  Mobilization Force (PMF) are saying that they will take the city of
  Tal Afar, about 34 miles west of Mosul, but didn't say they would stop
  there. According to one unnamed senior Iraqi official, The Iranians
  and the PMF plan to take Tal Afar because of the Shia significance and
  use that as a way to angle in to Mosul."
  
  
• The Kurdish Peshmerga forces have taken the lead in a number of
  the battles against ISIS in the past, and are now complaining that the
  Iraqi army aren't moving quickly enough. Kurdish General Masoud
  Barzani said, "Is it the Iraqi army or is it the Iranian army? There
  are a lot of cars with their slogans and flags."

Maybe all will go as Iraqi leaders have planned -- the participants
will do as they're told, the battle will be quick, and only the Iraqi
army will enter Mosul. But there are powerful forces at play, and
powerful constituents, and they won't be stopped by a simple
agreement, especially when something goes wrong. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters and Dow Jones

Related Articles

• Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participation in Mosul operation (18-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Iraq begins battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS (17-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Iraq, ISIS and the West prepare for the Great Battle for Mosul to begin soon (01-Oct-2016)
  

****
**** Turkey views Iraq and Syria through the lens of World War I and the Ottoman Empire
****

When the Ottoman Empire was defeated in World War I, troops from
Greece, Armenia, France and Italy occupied Istanbul and partitioned
much of the land previously controlled by the Ottomans. Turkey's War
of Independence began in 1919, and continued until 1923, with Turkey's
forces led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the revered founder of modern
Turkey.

In 1920, the Ottoman Parliament approved a document known as Misak-i
Milli, or the Turkish National Oath, which laid out Turkey's
conditions for achieving peace, including a demand that "The future of
the territories inhabited by an Arab majority at the time of the
signing of the Armistice of Mudros will be determined by a
referendum." However, when peace was finally achieved by the Lausanne
Peace Treaty in 1923, many of the demands of the Turkish National Oath
were not met.

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has referred to the Turkish
National Oath in his speeches. According to Turkish media, he sees
the treaties that ended World War I as defining new national
boundaries for the entire Mideast, and he sees the current wars in
Syria and Iraq as a process of redrawing those boundaries for the
first time in almost a century -- or as a plot by the West, the Kurds,
Iran and other foreigners to divide up the Syria and Iraq among
themselves.

Among the regions that Turkey was forced to give up in 1923 were parts
of northern Syria and Iraq, including Mosul in Iraq and Manbij in
Syria. Erdogan believes that if the Mideast boundaries are going to
be redrawn, then Turkey must take part aggressively, or else be
humiliated again as happened with the Lausanne Peace Treaty almost a
century ago. Thus, in Erdogan's view, Turkey must take part in the
Mosul operation, and Erdogan must eject Kurdish militias from northern
Syria, where Turkey has been fighting Operation Euphrates Shield.

The Kurds are aware of this, of course, as they're trying to create
their own state of Rojava in a region stretching from the
Mediterranean to Iran in northern Syria and Iraq, along the border
with Turkey. Erdogan has repeatedly said that anything like that
would be intolerable.

Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is now governing only a small
fraction of the original Syria, mockingly called "Alawite-istan," in
the west. Al-Assad is planning destroy the city of Aleppo, killing as
many of the 250,000 Sunni civilians living there are he can, using
barrel bombs, cluster bombs, chlorine, phosphorous bombs and bunker
bombs, as well as Russia's warplanes. Aleppo is currently under
siege, with no food or supplies able to enter the city.

Turkey has vowed to attack the city of Manbij in northern Syria, to
eject the Kurds and the last of the ISIS fighters.

As it turns out, Manbij is not far from Aleppo. Some analysts are
suggesting that Turkey might try to break the siege on Aleppo.

Regular readers know that Generational Dynamics has been predicting a
major Mideast war. We've mentioned several possible scenarios how
such a war might begin. Possibilities include a war between Israelis
and Arabs, a war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, or a war between India
and Pakistan spreading to the Mideast. Each of these wars would
create a scenario that leads to a full-scale Mideast war.

Now we must add another possible scenario. Turkey has become
increasingly nationalist, especially since the July 15 attempted coup,
and Turkey may end up fighting Iran, Iraq, the Kurds and al-Assad,
attempting to recover the territory lost by the peace treaties that
followed World War I. As in the other cases, this would create a
scenario that leads to a full-scale Mideast war. Rudaw (Iraq-Kurds)
and Yeni Safak (Ankara) and Kurdistan 24 and Hurriyet (Ankara)

Related Articles

• Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Bashar al-Assad's Syrian army once again close to collapse (04-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's Erdogan gives himself dictatorial powers, moving Turkey away from the West (22-Jul-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Bashiqa military base, Peshmerga, Kurdistan Workers’ Party, PKK,
Operation Euphrates Shield, Hashid Shaabi, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF,
Masoud Barzani, Mustafa Kemal Atatürkm Misak-i Milli, Turkish National Oath,
World War I, Lausanne Peace Treaty, Manbij, Aleppo, Rojava

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-Oct-16 World View -- Aleppo bombings in 'humanitarian pause' as residents await Russia's death blow

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia's warship fleet sails through English Channel to Syria
  
• Russia extends 'humanitarian pause' in Aleppo Syria
  

****
**** Russia's warship fleet sails through English Channel to Syria
****


Ghostly image of bombed out Aleppo (CNN)

Russia's Northern Fleet, which Russian media describes as as “the most
powerful Russian naval task force to sail in northern Europe since
2014," will pass through the English Channel on Friday on its way to
the eastern Mediterranean. It's believed that it will be used to
deliver a massive blow to the hundreds of thousands of residents of
Aleppo in Syria.

The fleet includes the flagship aircraft carrier the Admiral
Kuznetsov. It also includes a nuclear-powered battle cruiser, Pyotr
Velikiy, and two Udaloy Class Destroyers. The Admiral Kuznetsov itself
is capable of carrying 50 war planes.

Russia already has about 10 ships off Syria, which have fired cruise
missiles at targets in Syria.

Some fears of war have been expressed in European media because Russia
is sending such a large fleet through UK territorial waters. However,
it seems pretty clear that the fleet will simply continue traveling
south, to be used with the intended objective of killing as many of
the residents of Aleppo as possible.

Britain's Defense Secretary Michael Fallon said,

> [indent]<QUOTE>"When these ships near our waters we will man-mark
> them every step of the way. We will be watching as part of our
> steadfast commitment to keep Britain safe."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

British and Norwegian ships and Swedish reconnaissance aircraft will
be monitoring the Russian fleet with a view to gaining as much
intelligence as possible. BBC and CNN and Russia Today

****
**** Russia extends 'humanitarian pause' in Aleppo Syria
****

When I was in college, one of the other kids kept a large snake in a
glass cube in his room. I asked how he fed the snake. He said that
once a month he'd put a live mouse into the cube. After a few days,
the snake would eat the mouse. He told me that "in the meantime, the
mouse would be a nervous wreck, because he knew what was going to
happen."

That must be how the hundreds of thousands of residents of Aleppo feel
right now. Russia has extended its "humanitarian pause" on air
strikes for an additional 24 hours, but everyone knows that once the
"pause" ends, Russian and Syrian warplanes will resume their
destruction of Aleppo, including hospitals and civilian neighborhoods,
using barrel bombs, chemical weapons (chlorine gas), phosphorous
bombs, cluster bombs and bunker bombs.

Russia has also announced that six corridors were opened for civilians
who want to escape the impending slaughter.

This is presumably a use of another weapon of war by the Russians and
Syrians -- trying to create a new flood of hundreds of thousands more
refugees, to add to the millions who are already flooding into
neighboring countries and Europe. At any rate, it's believed that
only a few hundred refugees have left Aleppo, for fear that they would
be easy targets if they attempted to flee.

Some analysts have suggested that the purpose of the announcement of
the "six corridors" is to be able to claim that the hundreds of
thousands of civilians left in Aleppo, including women and children,
must be "terrorists," to be killed by Syrian and Russian warplanes.

However, there is a logical contradiction. Russian media is saying
that the reason that civilians haven't been fleeing Aleppo through the
six corridors is because the terrorist rebels are telling them that
they'll be shot if they try to leave. This claim contradicts the
claim that the only civilians left in Aleppo are "terrorists."

At any rate, the Russian and Syrian destruction of Aleppo is expected
to resume on Friday afternoon. Within a few more days, it's expected
to be followed even more massive destruction from the warplanes and
cruise missiles delivered by the new Russian naval fleet headed for
the eastern Mediterranean.

According to one analyst I heard, the plan is for the destruction of
Aleppo to be complete on the day before the US presidential election.
Washington Post and BBC and
Russia Today

Related Articles

• UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura predicts total destruction of Aleppo by Christmas (07-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Syria's al-Assad goes for the kill, turning Aleppo and civilians to bloody rubble (24-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Russia uses the 'Grozny Model' to pursue mass slaughter in Aleppo Syria (02-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Syria's opposition pulls out of talks after Scud missiles hit Aleppo (24-Feb-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Northern Fleet, Admiral Kuznetsov,
English Channel, Britain, Michael Fallon,
Syria, Aleppo, Bashar al-Assad

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 22-Oct-16 World View -- France to demolish 'The Jungle' migrant camp in Calais

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• France to demolish 'The Jungle' migrant camp in Calais
  
• Italy struggles with the 'mini-Calais' refugee camp in Ventimiglia
  

****
**** France to demolish 'The Jungle' migrant camp in Calais
****


Aerial view of 'The Jungle' refugee camp in Calais France (CNN)

France has announced that it will begin on Monday demolishing the
migrant camp in Calais known as "The Jungle." The 6,500 to 10,000
migrants living in the camp will be given two choices: Either to be
deported back to their home countries, or to stay in some 300
temporary refugee centers across France, where they can apply for
asylum. Children who can prove that they have relatives in Britain
may be allowed to travel to their family members.

The people in the camp are escaping war or poverty mostly from
Afghanistan, Sudan, Eritrea and Syria. The reason that migrants have
come to Calais in the first place is because it's near the Eurotunnel
that connects France to Britain underneath the English Channel.
Britain is a favorite destination because of liberal welfare and
medical services policies, and because they prefer an English-speaking
country. Refugees risk their lives by attempting to jump onto trucks
that are headed through the EuroTunnel.

Over the last three or four years, the refugee camp has become
squalid, unsanitary and unsafe for most people, especially women and
children. Attempts to move people out of the camp in the past have
led to confrontations with police.

On Monday, sixty buses are scheduled to transport 3,000 migrants to
alternate refugee centers in other parts of France. Activists are
claiming that they've come this far because they're desperate to reach
Britain, and they'll resist being forced to leave. Furthermore,
activists say, they'll simply return to Calais as soon as they have a
chance. Reuters and Deutsche Presse-Agentur (dpa) and CNN

Related Articles

• Britain will accept thousands of child refugees from European camps (05-May-2016)
  
  
• Bulldozers bury the 'Jungle' refugee camp in Calais France (02-Mar-2016)
  

****
**** Italy struggles with the 'mini-Calais' refugee camp in Ventimiglia
****

Last week, Italian police with guns surrounded a small refrigerated
van after a car chase, just before the van was going to cross the
border into Italy. When they opened the back of the van, they were
shocked to find 17 migrants in there. One passenger said he had paid
50 euros to a human trafficker to make the trick, and had feared
suffocating inside the van.

The incident occurred in Ventimiglia, an Italian city on the border
with France, opposite the French city of Menton. This area is often
called "Mini-Calais" because every week hundreds of migrants try to
cross the mountain passes and tunnels along the border either by foot
or by hiding in vehicles. Those who succeed and are caught in France
are sent back to Italy.

More than 24,000 refugees have been residing in Ventimiglia, where
living conditions are getting steadily worse. That number is expected
to increase, as more migrants arrive in Italy from North Africa. More
than 145,000 have made the journey across the Mediterranean so far
this year. EuroNews and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters

Related Articles

• Migrants from Libya to Italy surge in the Mediterranean (05-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Italy rescues 8,000 migrants in 5 days crossing Mediterranean Sea from Libya (02-Aug-2016)
  
  
• In a new catastrophe, hundreds of migrants drown in the Mediterranean Sea (19-Apr-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Calais, The Jungle, EuroTunnel,
Afghanistan, Sudan, Eritrea and Syria,
Menton, Ventimiglia, Italy, Libya

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-Oct-16 World View -- Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte in comic dance with China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte in comic dance with China
  
• Duterte's statement generates backlash at home
  
• Philippines president Duterte apparently cedes Scarborough Shoal to China
  

****
**** Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte in comic dance with China
****


Xi Jinping and Rodrigo Duterte meeting in Beijing last week (CNN)

Media headlines in the past couple of days have been saying things
like "Duterte's flip-flop into bed with China is a disaster for the
United States" and "While we watched the debate, the Philippines
aligned with China."

The headlines are referring to the new Philippines president Rodrigo
R. Duterte. He announced a cutoff of relations with the United States
first by calling President Obama the "son of a whore." Then he
visited Beijing, where he was given a red carpet welcome by China's
president Xi Jinping, and made the following announcement to
thunderous applause in the Great Hall of the People:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Your honors, in this venue, I announce my separation
> from the United States. Both in military... not maybe social, but
> economics also, America has lost. I will be dependent on you. ...
>
> I’ve realigned myself in your ideological flow and maybe I will
> also go to Russia to talk to Putin and tell him that there are
> three of us against the world — China, Philippines and Russia.
>
> Americans are loud, sometimes rowdy. Their larynx is not adjusted
> to civility."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

In a world where politicians are constantly making ridiculous
statements, this isn't the most ridiculous recent statement (pretty
much anything from Vladimir Putin is worse), but it's close.

For one thing, the Philippines does $24 billion in annual trade with
the US. For another thing, the Philippines has a mutual defense
treaty with the US which has been in force since 1951 where both
countries pledge to come to each other’s defense in the event of an
armed attack, and Duterte alone does not have the power to abrogate
the treaty, nor would the Philippine people want him to. LA Times and Inquirer (Philippines)

Related Articles

• China snubs Philippines on humanitarian aid, then backs down (15-Nov-2013)
  
  
• China's media 'accidentally' claims Philippines as part of China (10-May-2012)
  

****
**** Duterte's statement generates backlash at home
****

As I've been writing for years, it's a core principle of Generational
Dynamics that even in a dictatorship, major policies and events are
determined by masses of people, entire generations of people, and not
by politicians. Thus, Hitler was not the cause of WW II. What
politicians say or do is irrelevant, except insofar as their actions
reflect the attitudes of the people that they represent, and so
politicians can neither cause nor prevent the great events of history.

And in this case, the will of the people is pretty evident from polls
conducted by Pew Global research: Among the Philippine people, 54%
have a favorable view of China, while 92% have a favorable view of the
United States. A recent survey shows that 55% of Philippines people
have "little trust" in China, while only 11% feel the same about the
United States.

In fact, Philippine senators crossed party lines and warned Duterte to
back down. According to the Senate minority leader:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Any drastic shift in our foreign policy direction
> should be well-thought-out and not simply blurted out. It should
> be a product of deep study and wide discussion. Because of its
> far-reaching implications, it cannot be an announce now, study
> later thing.
>
> Yes, our relations with the United States may not be perfect. But
> a country which has illegally built a great wall of sand in our
> seas is not, and far from, the epitome of a good friend
> either."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Other politicians called him a madman and delusional. Duterte's
spokesman "clarified" Duterte's statement by saying that he just wanted
to "separate the nation from dependence on the U.S. and the West and
rebalance economic and military relations with Asian neighbors" like
China, Japan and South Korea.

The Chinese people are skeptical as well. China's politicians and
media have remained mostly silent about Duterte's comments, but people
on social networks see it as a ploy to get investments and loans from
China. Some likened his “separation” from the United States to a new
social phenomenon in China in which people make use of fake divorces
to get around restrictive regulations in order to obtain a second
housing loan.

So Duterte's announcement present an interesting case study for
Generational Dynamics. China and the Philippines will never be
friends, because their respective populations hate each other. It's
not the politicians who decide policies, but the people. Inquirer (Philippines) and Pew Global - Philippines - China and Pew Global - Philippines - US and International Business Times (Singapore)

****
**** Philippines president Duterte apparently cedes Scarborough Shoal to China
****

In his trip to China last week, Philippines president Rodrigo
R. Duterte may have ceded Scarborough Shoal to China.

In its July 12 ruling on the South China Sea, the United Nations
Permanent Court of Arbitration eviscerated China's claims to the South
China Sea, and said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"[The Tribunal] FINDS that Scarborough Shoal has been
> a traditional fishing ground for fishermen of many nationalities
> and DECLARES that China has, through the operation of its official
> vessels at Scarborough Shoal from May 2012 onwards, unlawfully
> prevented fishermen from the Philippines from engaging in
> traditional fishing at Scarborough Shoal."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

China has been using its vast military power to build artificial
islands and military bases in the South China Sea both in
international waters and in waters that are part of other countries.
In 2012, China forcibly invaded and annexed Scarborough Shoal, and
used military threats to prevent Philippine fishermen from fishing
there.

So when Duterte went to China to declare "separation" from the United
States, many fishermen hoped that Duterte would regain access to
Scarborough Shoal. But apparently Duterte didn't even try. When he
was asked about it, he said: "We cannot win that ... Even if we get
angry, we'll just be putting on airs. We can't beat China."

Later, Duterte said: "I leave it to them to, it’s one of the things I
said that in the private talks which I cannot, but tingnan natin [let
us see]. Let us see what develops in the days to come."

So Duterte really got nothing except promises. He got promises of
loans and investments, and he apparently got a promise that China
would allow the Philippines to do a little bit of fishing there.

We've seen the US administration concede one thing after another to
Iran for the nuclear deal and to Russia for a farcical ceasefire in
Aleppo Syria. Duterte is doing the same thing with Russia. For those
of you who, like me, wondered for years how it was possible for
Britain to appease Hitler, you're seeing it happen here. This is how
the world works. Defense One and International Business Times (Singapore) and Philippine Star and CNN Philippines

Related Articles

• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Would America not defend Israel after all? (08-Sep-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
China, Xi Jinping, South China Sea, Scarborough Shoal,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration

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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-Oct-16 World View -- South Africa's withdrawal throws future of International Criminal Court into doubt

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• South Africa's withdrawal throws future of International Criminal Court into doubt
  
• Is the ICC racially biased against Africans?
  
• The fallacy of prosecuting war crimes
  

****
**** South Africa's withdrawal throws future of International Criminal Court into doubt
****


International Criminal Court in the Hague (Getty)

A week after Burundi announced it was withdrawing from the International Criminal Court (ICC)
in the
Hague, South Africa's president Jacob Zuma announced that it would do
the same. In each case, the withdrawal becomes effective one year
after the ICC receives notice.

South Africa's action was triggered by Burundi's withdrawal, and also
because the ICC criticized Zuma's administration for failing to arrest Sudan's leader Omar al-Bashir
when he visited Johannesburg for an African Union summit
last year.

The ICC was set up in 2002 by the Rome Statute, which 123 countries
have ratified, although the US is notably absent. Its purpose is to
bring to justice those responsible for genocide, crimes against
humanity, and war crimes -- terms that are all defined in detail in
the Rome Statute.

However, in its 16 year existence, it's only prosecuted African
states. Since 2014, the African Union has urged member states not to
co-operate with the ICC, accusing it of being racially biased against
Africa. Uganda, Kenya and Namibia have also discussed withdrawing
from the ICC.

For South Africa, the government is currently in chaos because of
corruption accusations leveled at Jacob Zuma. Zuma's opposition
Democratic Alliance is opposed to the decision, as described by
James Selfe, a leading official:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Democratic Alliance is disgusted at this
> decision. We think it sends out an entirely incorrect message
> around our commitment to human rights and our abhorrence of human
> rights abuses and of genocide, and we believe that it would set
> back our foreign policy and the way in which South Africa is
> viewed in a very fundamental way.
>
> We also believe that the decision itself has been taken in a way
> which is unconstitutional, unlawful. Accordingly, we will we will
> be lodging papers in the constitutional court on Monday morning
> seeking the court’s ruling seeking that it reviews and sets aside
> this decision by the South African government."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

According to activist opposition leader Mosiuoa Lekota:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"This government continues to destroy all the good and
> hard work that the former Presidents Nelson Mandela and Thabo
> Mbeki spent many years to build. Now everything has been thrown
> out of the window."
>
> Pulling out of the ICC will expose our children to war crimes in
> South Africa without recourse to a higher court."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Selfe added that a decision to withdraw from the ICC would require a
vote by the parliament. Times Live (South Africa) and VOA and BBC and Foreign Policy

Related Articles

• South Africa defies International Criminal Court, al-Bashir flies free (16-Jun-2015)
  
  
• Darfur in Sudan facing new genocide as refugees are expelled from camps (08-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Zimbabwe launching a Soviet style command agriculture program (20-Aug-2016)
  

****
**** Is the ICC racially biased against Africans?
****

It's just an accident of history that the ICC appears to be biased
against Africans. There have been war crimes trials against other
nations, but they've taken place in other courts. The African nation
whining about bias know this, but they're looking for an excuse to
avoid being held responsible for their crimes, even though it's the
victims of the crimes that really want to see the court trials take
place.

There are trials targeting the Khmer Rouge for their alleged war
crimes in Cambodia's "killing fields" war in the 1970s, but that trial
is being held in the "Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of
Cambodia" (ECCC) in Angk Snuol, Cambodia.

There's a trial targeting Ratko Mladic for atrocities committed at the
1995 Srebrenica massacre in the Bosnian war, but that trial is being
conducted in a special court called the "International Criminal
Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia" in The Hague.

There were trials in 1945 for Nazi war criminals, but they were held
in special courts in Nuremberg, Germany. Japan's war crimes trials
were held in 1946 in the International Military Tribunal for the Far
East (IMTFE) in Tokyo.

So, taken as a whole, war crimes courts have certainly not
specifically targeted Africa. Deutsche Welle and Human Rights Watch and Rome Statute creating the ICC

Related Articles

• Sri Lanka joining the torture club, with Syria, Burundi, Zimbabwe (14-Jan-2016)
  
  
• Burundi lawmakers vote to leave the International Criminal Court (ICC) (13-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Uganda calls for mass Africa pullout from International Criminal Court (13-Dec-2014)
  

****
**** The fallacy of prosecuting war crimes
****

Since World War II, this idea of prosecuting genocide and war crimes
has been latched on to as a way to save the world. Ever since the
Nuremberg trials of Nazi leaders, "Never again!" must have uttered by
politicians thousands of times, referring to the Holocaust.

And yet the Nuremberg trials didn't prevent Mao Zedong from killing 45
million people in the Great Leap Forward genocide (1958-59); didn't
prevent Pol Pot from killing 8 million people in the Cambodia Killing
Fields genocide (1975-79); didn't prevent 8 million people from being
killed in the Rwanda genocide (1994); didn't prevent Robert Mugabe
from committing the Operation Gukurahundi genocide in Zimbabwe (1984);
and isn't preventing Bashar al-Assad from committing genocide in Syria
today, with the help of war criminals Vladimir Putin of Russia and
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei of Iran.

Shakespeare wrote in Venus and Adonis: "Were beauty under twenty locks
kept fast, Yet love breaks through and picks them all at last," a
couplet that's often summarized as "Love laughs at locksmiths." Just
as love laughs at locksmiths, war crimes laugh at the ICC.

No one could seriously believe that Adolf Hitler would have cancelled
the Holocaust out of fear of being prosecuted by some court. Or that
Mao Zedong would have canceled the Great Leap Forward for a similar
reason. The whole concept is absurd.

Love, sex and genocide are all part of the base human DNA. They do
not respect skin color, geography, race or religion. From the point
of view of Generational Dynamics, they are part of every human's core
makeup, and they are the way the world works, whether we like it or
not.

So the politicians in South Africa and Burundi see Bashar al-Assad in
a full-scale genocide in Syria, and they're asking, "Why the hell is
the ICC picking on us Africans? Go pick on Bashar al-Assad, and just
let us go on committing atrocities, torturing, mutilating and
exterminating people we dislike, and stop bothering us about it."
Shakespeare: Venus and Adonis

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, International Criminal Court, ICC,
Burundi, South Africa, Jacob Zuma, Sudan, Omar al-Bashir,
Mosiuoa Lekota, Cambodia, Khmer Rouge, Killing fields,
Ratko Mladic, Srebrenica massacre, Bosnian war, James Selfe,
Nazi Germany, Adolf Hitler, Nuremberg, Japan, Holocaust,
China, Mao Zedong, Great Leap Forward,
Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe, Operation Gukurahundi,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Vladimir Putin, Russia,
Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, Iran,
Shakespeare, Venus and Adonis

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 25-Oct-16 World View -- Turkey's military intervention grows in Syria and Iraq

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• In Iraq, Turkey's artillery and possibly its jets are helping recapture Mosul from ISIS
  
• In Syria, Turkey attacks both Kurds and ISIS near Aleppo
  

****
**** In Iraq, Turkey's artillery and possibly its jets are helping recapture Mosul from ISIS
****


Iraqi tribesmen protest the presence of Turkish troops in northern Iraq (Getty)

There is a growing perception in Turkey that the Mideast borders,
especially those of Syria and Iraq, are being redesigned, and Turkey
wants to be sure to recover some of land lost in World War I.

In Iraq, Mosul is a historically Sunni city and was part of the
Ottoman empire, and any attempt to change is demographic composition
would be a direct threat to Turkey's security. The concern is that
the population would be diluted by Kurds or by Shia Muslims coming
from Iran.

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been in a war of words
with Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who demanded that Turkey
withdraw its troops and tanks from Iraq. Recently, Erdogan responded
to al-Abadi:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"You are not my interlocutor. You are not at my
> level. You are not my equivalent. You are not of the same quality
> as me.
>
> Your screaming and shouting in Iraq is of no importance to us.
> You should know that we will go our own way."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Turkey has for weeks been training Kurdish Peshmerga forces in Iraq to
fight the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) near
Mosul. On Monday, Turkey's foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said
that Turkish artillery fire is being used to aid the Kurdish Peshmerga
forces fighting ISIS, and four Turkish fighter jets are on standby to
take part in air operations.

Al-Abadi has repeatedly said that Iraq does not want Turkey's help.
Turkey continues to insist that it must take part in the recapture of
Mosul from ISIS to protect its own interests. Iraq's fear is that
Erdogan will get his wish, and that part of Iraq, especially the
region around Mosul, will become part of Turkey. Reuters and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Al Jazeera and BBC

Related Articles

• Turkey views Iraq and Syria through the lens of World War I and the Ottoman Empire (20-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participation in Mosul operation (18-Oct-2016)
  

****
**** In Syria, Turkey attacks both Kurds and ISIS near Aleppo
****

Turkey's military says that it struck dozens of ISIS and Kurdish YPG
militia targets on Monday in northern Syria, about 35 miles from
Aleppo, as part of Operation Euphrates Shield. Last week, strikes by
Turkish warplanes killed 200 PKK/PYD 'terrorists' in northern Syria,
according to the military.

Turkey said that the strikes were in the support of the Free Syrian
Army, and were necessary to prevent the Kurds taking control of the
entire region in northern Syria along the Turkish border, with the
intention of creating a Kurdish state called Rojava. When Operation
Euphrates Shield began three months ago, Erdogan said that stopping a
Kurdish state would be a principal objective, along with liberating
Syrian cities that had been captured by ISIS.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah says that Turkey's
involvement in Syria and Iraq is a thinly veiled attempt to take
control of both Aleppo and Mosul.

Syria's military calls Turkey's action a "serious escalation," and a
gross violation of Syria’s sovereignty.

Turkey's objectives are hardly secret, as Erdogan is pursuing the
policies he's stated several times recently. What I'm waiting for is
to see whether Turkey will try to break the siege of Aleppo being
implemented by Syria's army in preparation for massive slaughter of
Sunni civilians. That would bring Turkey into direct confrontation
with Russia, just as the two countries have been cozying up to each
other recently. Reuters and Anadolu (Ankara) and AP and
Al Masdar News (Syria)

Related Articles

• Syria's al-Assad goes for the kill, turning Aleppo and civilians to bloody rubble (24-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Iraq, Mosul, Syria, Aleppo,
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Haider al-Abadi, Mevlut Cavusoglu,
Operation Euphrates Shield, Kurds, Rojava,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Warren Dew]

(10-24-2016, 09:59 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: >        [indent]<QUOTE>"You are not my interlocutor. You are not at my
>        level. You are not my equivalent. You are not of the same quality
>        as me.
>    
>        Your screaming and shouting in Iraq is of no importance to us.
>        You should know that we will go our own way."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The emphasis on which leader is at whose "level" is weirdly reminiscent of records from Hittite leaders.  I guess Erdogan thinks he is a "great king" and Al-Abadi merely a regular "king".

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 26-Oct-16 World View -- Pakistan reels after 60 young police cadets killed in terror attack in Balochistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pakistan reels after 60 young police cadets killed in terror attack in Balochistan
  
• Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) may be getting revenge for police attack on leader
  

****
**** Pakistan reels after 60 young police cadets killed in terror attack in Balochistan
****


Quetta attack

At least 61 people, mostly fresh police recruits, were killed and 117
injured on Monday night in a terror attack on a Police Training
cottage in Quetta, the capital of the province of Balochistan in
Pakistan. The attack began with gunfire at 11 pm and continued for
several hours, but most of the deaths were caused when one of the
terrorists exploded his suicide vest. The attackers are thought to be
Afghan Uzbeks. One of them was a 12-year-old boy.

The attack is being blamed on the Al Alami offshoot of
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), a terror group that has vowed to exterminate
all Shias in Pakistan, and has carried out numerous terrorist actions
targeting Shias. However, no Pakistan terror group has claimed
credit. However, LeJ is also thought to have links to the so-called
Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), and so ISIS has been
putting out press releases claiming credit for the attack. ISIS seems
anxious to take credit for every terror attack, whether they have
anything to do with it or not.

Another possibility, though less likely, is that the terror attack is
related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, which
over ten years will build a network of roads, railways and energy
pipelines aiming to connect western Chinese cities to the sea port in
Gwadar on the Indian Ocean. On Saturday, two Pakistan Coast Guard
officers were gunned down in a region close to the Gwadar sea port,
and there's a possibility, considered less likely, that Monday's
terror attack was connected to the CPEC project.

Whoever the perpetrator, and whatever the motives, the attack is
sending shock waves among the people of Pakistan, who are blaming the
police and the government for the continuing stream of terror attacks.
In past decades, Pakistan's government has supported Taliban terror
groups who were attacking targets in India and Afghanistan, and now
those terror groups are attacking targets in Pakistan itself. This
new terror attack is certain to renew the "good terrorists versus bad terrorists"
debate
in Pakistan. Reuters and
AFP and Reuters and Dunya News (Pakistan)

Related Articles

• Pakistan's Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) continues plan to exterminate Shias (03-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Quetta Pakistan terror attack kills 75, while unrest grows in Kashmir (09-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Suicide attack in Pakistan means no politician is safe (17-Aug-2015)
  

****
**** Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) may be getting revenge for police attack on leader
****

Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) is thought to be the perpetrator of Monday's
attack on the police academy. Although the ethnicity of the victims
has not been reported, the fact that it took place in Balochistan
suggests that most of the cadets were Shias.

Lashkar-e-Janghvi has repeatedly stated that its goal is the
extermination of all Shia Muslims in Pakistan, and has been
methodically setting off bombs in order to achieve that goal. An LeJ
statement issued in 2011 says:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Our mission [in Pakistan] is the abolition of this
> impure sect and people, the Shias and the Shia Hazaras, from every
> city, every village, every nook and corner of Pakistan. Like in
> the past, [our] successful Jihad against the Hazaras in Pakistan
> and, in particular, in Quetta is ongoing and will continue. We
> will make Pakistan their graveyard-- their houses will be
> destroyed by bombs and suicide bombers. ... Jihad against the Shia
> Hazaras has now become our duty. ... We will rest only after
> hoisting the flag of true Islam on the land of the pure --
> Pakistan."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

However, there's an additional possible motivation for LeJ. LeJ's leader Malik Ishaq was killed while in a police convoy
in July of last year. The police said that the
convoy was attacked by 12-15 gunmen, and that Ishaq and his two sons
were killed in the subsequent shootout, but LeJ has claimed that the
gunfight was staged.

So it's possible that LeJ attacked the policy academy to get revenge
for the killing of its Malik Ishaq. Dawn (Pakistan) and Al Jazeera

Related Articles

• Lashkar-e-Jhangvi leader Malik Ishaq killed in gunfight in Pakistan (30-Jul-2015)
  
  
• India and Pakistan in vitriolic accusations at the UN over Kashmir and Balochistan (18-Sep-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pakistan, Quetta, Balochistan,
Al Alami, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, LeJ, Malik Ishaq,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC, Gwadar sea port

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 27-Oct-16 World View -- Spain blocks Russia fleet refueling stop over planned bombing in Aleppo Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Spain blocks Russia fleet refueling stop over planned bombing in Aleppo Syria
  
• The Gambia follows Burundi and S. Africa in leaving the International Criminal Court
  

****
**** Spain blocks Russia fleet refueling stop over planned bombing in Aleppo Syria
****


Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov in the English Channel on Oct 21 (EPA)

Spain on Wednesday asked for clarification on the intentions of a
Russian fleet that was scheduled to dock for refueling in Spain's port
of Ceuta between October 28 and November 2. Spain's foreign ministry
issued this statement:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Given the information which appeared on the
> possibility that these ships would participate in supporting
> military action in the Syrian city of Aleppo, the ministry of
> foreign affairs requested clarification from the embassy of the
> Russian Federation in Madrid."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Russian fleets had been refueling in Ceuta for years, but hostility is
growing in Europe over the genocidal acts of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad, backed by Russia, and most recently his plans to destroy the
city of Aleppo, killing as many civilians as possible, possibly
including as many as hundreds of thousands of women and children.

The Russian fleet, which includes an aircraft carrier, had put on a
great show last week by traveling through the English Channel, instead
of taking the usual route north of Scotland. It's destination is to
be a port in Syria, and it's suspected that Russia plans to launch
additional bombers from the fleet to take part in the Aleppo
slaughter. This prompted Nato to put pressure on Spain to demand a
clarification from Russia.

Russia responded to Spain's request for clarification by withdrawing
its request to refuel in Ceuta. Gibraltar Chronicle and BBC

Related Articles

• Russia's warship fleet sails through English Channel to Syria (21-Oct-2016)
  
  
• UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura predicts total destruction of Aleppo by Christmas (07-Oct-2016)
  

****
**** The Gambia follows Burundi and S. Africa in leaving the International Criminal Court
****

First, two weeks ago, Burundi announced it was withdrawing from the International Criminal Court (ICC)
in the Hague. Then, two days ago, South Africa also announced its withdrawal.

On Wednesday, The Gambia became the third African country in quick
succession to announce its withdrawal, calling it the "International
Caucasian Court" because of its targeting of African countries.

Burundi and The Gambia have many similarities. Both are being led by
presidents (Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi and Yahya Jammeh of The
Gambia) who have been in power for years, and who are using violence,
torture and mass slaughter of the opposition to stay in power. That's
why both countries are leaving the ICC.

South Africa is in a different category. South Africa has been a
democracy since 1994, when the first election was held following the
end of apartheid. The African National Congress (ANC) political party
has won every national election since then, but opposition political
parties have increasingly been scoring victories in regional
elections, to the point where ANC leaders fear they'll lose the next
national election.

The current ANC leader Jacob Zuma is being widely criticized as
corrupt and unaccountable, and is being blamed for ANC's losses in a
recent election. The ANC is badly split, and Jacob Zuma's unilateral
decision to withdraw South Africa from the ICC raises suspicions that
he's about to take some steps similar t those taken by Pierre
Nkurunziza of Burundi and Yahya Jammeh of The Gambia to stay in power.
Daily Maverick (South Africa) and BBC and Mail and Guardian (South Africa) and Sowetan Live

Related Articles

• South Africa's withdrawal throws future of International Criminal Court into doubt (24-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Burundi's Pierre Nkurunziza follows Syria's Bashar al-Assad on path to genocide (13-Oct-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Spain, Ceuta port,
Admiral Kuznetsov, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Aleppo,
The Gambia, Yahya Jammeh, Burundi, Pierre Nkurunziza,
International Criminal Court, ICC,
South Africa, Jacob Zuma, African National Congress, ANC

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 28-Oct-16 World View -- Thousands of refugees hide from French police as Calais 'Jungle' refugee camp is demolished

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands of refugees hide from French police as Calais 'Jungle' refugee camp is demolished
  
• Destruction of Calais camp called 'really dangerous' for children
  

****
**** Thousands of refugees hide from French police as Calais 'Jungle' refugee camp is demolished
****


Calais 'Jungle' camp goes up in flames on Tuesday (AFP)

France has declared "Mission Accomplished!" after demolishing "The
Jungle," the refugee camp in Calais, and bussing some 4,000 migrants
to 280 reception centers across the country after being separated into
different categories – single men, families, vulnerable people and
unaccompanied minors.

According to Fabienne Buccio, a local official, "There are no more
migrants in the camp. Our mission has been fulfilled."

However, not every tent or shanty was actually "demolished." A lot of
them were burnt to the ground by the refugees themselves, apparently
as a way of saying "goodbye."

And a more serious reason why the mission hasn't really been
accomplished is that there were 7,000 to 10,000 refugees in the camp.
That means that several thousand refugees have fled from the camp, and
are hiding out in order to stay near Calais. Many have simply gone to
another refugee camp in nearby Dunkirk. On top of that, new refugees
are arriving every day.

The people in the camp are escaping war or poverty mostly from
Afghanistan, Sudan, Eritrea and Syria. The reason that migrants have
come to Calais in the first place is because it's near the Eurotunnel
that connects France to Britain underneath the English Channel.
Britain is a favorite destination because of liberal welfare and
medical services policies, and because they prefer an English-speaking
country. So having been desperate enough to have risked their lives
for months to reach Calais, they are going to resist being bussed far
away to another part of France. The Local (France) and Express (London) and France 24

****
**** Destruction of Calais camp called 'really dangerous' for children
****

Concerns are being raised for the welfare of unaccompanied children.
Although many children were bussed to reception centers, it's believed
that there are hundreds of unaccompanied children who were forced to
flee on Tuesday and Wednesday during the demolition and fire.

Many children were unaccompanied because they had been sent from Syria
or Afghanistan to try to reach family members in the UK, leading some
activists to claim that Britain is responsible for these children.
According to Robert Innes, the Anglican Bishop of Gibraltar in Europe:
"They are gravely at risk. At a time when the UK is rightly spending
millions on investigating historic child abuse, it is striking that
there is a massive influx of traumatized children to Europe at risk of
current abuse, and for whom we are not yet doing enough." Church Times and CNN

Related Articles

• France to demolish 'The Jungle' migrant camp in Calais (22-Oct-2016)
  
  
• 'Swarm' of migrants causing crisis at Eurotunnel from France to Britain (31-Jul-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Calais, The Jungle,
Fabienne Buccio, Dunkirk, Robert Innes

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 29-Oct-16 World View -- China's president Xi Jinping given dictatorial powers

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China's president Xi Jinping given dictatorial powers
  
• China permits Philippines to fish in Scarborough Shoal
  

****
**** China's president Xi Jinping given dictatorial powers
****


Xi Jinping and wife, popular folk singer Peng Liyuan (Chinese Hour, 2012)

China now has a need of a "strongman leader" or "Great Leader," the
first since Mao Zedong, according to Chinese state media, so that
China can again rise to greatness.

Apparently that wish has been granted by last week's four-day sixth
plenum of the Central Committee, which issued a statement granting
China's president Xi Jinping the role of "core of the leadership,"
giving Xi unchallenged personal authority in the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP).

Ever since taking office in 2012, Xi has led a breathtaking
anti-corruption drive that has punished more than one million
officials for such crimes as bribery and abuse of power. Xi's
opponents claim that the anti-corruption campaign was really a purge
of political rivals, which is certainly true, given that Xi is a
politician.

According to professor David Zweig of Hong Kong University of Science
and Technology professor, Xi has been making powerful enemies:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The risk is that you will take power to yourself,
> undermine the power bases of the people beneath you. ...
>
> Everyone in the Politburo has their networks, even in the
> Standing Committee of the Politburo, so if you give all the power
> to one guy you give him the power to push your people out and push
> his people through.
>
> "Entrenched resistance was strong but if you really want to see
> China reform, you want to take some power away (from those) who
> protect their vested interests, like the state
> enterprises."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The contrast is to Xi's predecessor, Hu Jintao, who did not have the
"core of the leadership" blessing, but instead was "first among
equals," meaning that he had to rule by consensus. Xi has taken
advantage of the anti-corruption drive to push his political enemies
out and replace them with his acolytes, which means that he can rule
in a dictatorial manner, without as much of a consensus.

As long-time readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that China
is headed for two wars -- an internal civil war, the first major civil
war since the Communist revolution, and an external war, leading a
world war with the United States, their first world war since World
War II. These two wars are not inconsistent with each other, any more
than the Communist Revolution and World War II were not inconsistent
with each other. Xi can similarly expect to be fighting two wars --
an internal civil war and an external world war with the United
States. South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and Washington Post and SCMP (23-Oct) and BBC (24-Oct)

Related Articles

• China builds Navy designed to overwhelm the US Navy (05-May-2015)
  
  
• China could defeat U.S. in war over Taiwan (02-Aug-2011)
  
  
• Hu Jintao gives President Bush a copy of Sun Tzu's 'The Art of War' (20-Apr-2006)
  
  
• China approaches Civil War (16-Jan-2005)

****
**** China permits Philippines to fish in Scarborough Shoal
****

A week ago, Philippine president Rodrigo R. Duterte visited China and
said "I announce my separation from the United States. Both in
military... not maybe social, but economics also, America has lost. I
will be dependent on you." This was after calling President Obama the
"son of a whore."

Now China's president Xi Jinping has apparently waved his magic wand
and granted a reward to Duterte -- China's warships have withdrawn
from Scarborough Shoal, allowing Philippines fishermen to fish there
for the first time since 2012.

Scarborough Shoal is an island off the coast of Manila and far from
China's shores. Philippine fishermen fished there for centuries,
until blocked by the Chinese.

In its July 12 ruling on the South China Sea, the United Nations
Permanent Court of Arbitration eviscerated China's claims to the South
China Sea, and said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"[The Tribunal] FINDS that Scarborough Shoal has been
> a traditional fishing ground for fishermen of many nationalities
> and DECLARES that China has, through the operation of its official
> vessels at Scarborough Shoal from May 2012 onwards, unlawfully
> prevented fishermen from the Philippines from engaging in
> traditional fishing at Scarborough Shoal."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

So China has rewarded the Philippines by granting to them
rights that they were legally entitled to anyway.

Among the Philippine people, 54% have a favorable view of China, while
92% have a favorable view of the United States, so it won't be very
long before Duterte is forced to make some policy change that will
infuriate the Chinese, and the warships could come back quickly. To
paraphrase an old saying, Duterte should remember this: "The Xi
giveth, and the Xi taketh away." Manila Bulletin and Reuters and The Diplomat

Related Articles

• Philippines leader Rodrigo Duterte in comic dance with China (23-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Hagel sets a 'red line' for China in South China Sea (01-Jun-2014)
  
  
• Philippines and China in nationalistic confrontation in South China Sea (12-Apr-2012)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Mao Zedong, Xi Jinping, Peng Liyuan,
David Zweig, Hu Jintao, Philippines, Rodrigo R. Duterte,
Scarborough, United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 30-Oct-16 World View -- Confusion and chaos in Iraq mark the operation to free Mosul from ISIS

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Shia militias in Iraq may or may not be attacking Tal Afar near Mosul
  
• ISIS using tens of thousands of men, women and children as human shields in Mosul
  
• Conflicts among ethnic groups lead to chaos in Mosul operation
  

****
**** Shia militias in Iraq may or may not be attacking Tal Afar near Mosul
****


Kurdish Peshmerga forces fire a mortar towards ISIS positions near Mosul last week (Reuters)

The Iran-backed Shia militias fighting in support of Iraq's army to
liberate Mosul from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh), claim that they're on a mission by themselves to recapture the
nearby town of Tal Afar.

Ahmad al-Asadi, the spokesman for the Hashd al-Shaabi militia, or
Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>The front that has been tasked to the Hashd al-Shaabi
> is one of the most significant and most dangerous fronts in this
> operation.
>
> [The PMF] are tasked with one of the widest areas, ranging from
> Qayyara in the west, Tal Afar in the north to the Mosul outskirts
> in the east and some areas on the Syrian-Iraqi border to the
> west."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Tal Afar is about 55 km (35 miles) northwest of Mosul, and al-Shaabi
indicated that the goals was to cut off any option of retreat by ISIS
into Syria, or to prevent any reinforcements from arriving from Syria.

As we've discussed previously,

there has been a debate over whether to leave open the roads west of
Mosul, so that ISIS fighters will take advantage of it and flee
without a fight to ISIS headquarters in Raqqa in Syria.

The claims by Shia militia (PMF) spokesman Ahmad al-Asadi seems to
support closing the corridor to the West.

On the other hand, the active involvement of Iran-backed Shia
militias would seem to violate Iraqi government promises to Turkey
that Shia forces would be limited in their activities, to prevent
sectarian clashes.

But all of al-Asadi's claims are being disputed by Turkey's military,
according to a report in Daily Sabah:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"As reports from various sources indicate that Shiite
> militia groups have launched an operation Saturday to capture
> predominantly Turkmen town of Tal Afar in northern Iraq from
> Daesh, Turkish military sources said that these groups are not
> near the town and reports are part of a psychological warfare
> attempt."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The report suggests that the operation to recapture Mosul is not going
as well as planned, and the claims that the PMF are about to capture
Tal Afar are an attempt to fool both the international commit and
ISIS.

This report is consistent with suggestions in other reports that the
Iraqi army's advance on Mosul is stalled, and that the Mosul offensive
has virtually ground to a halt. AFP and Reuters and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Debka

Related Articles

• Unrealistic expectations surround the battle to recapture Mosul from ISIS (20-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Turkey and Iraq in dispute over Turkish participation in Mosul operation (18-Oct-2016)
  

****
**** ISIS using tens of thousands of men, women and children as human shields in Mosul
****

According to the United Nations Human Rights office, ISIS has abducted
tens of thousands of men, women and children from areas around Mosul
and are using them as "human shields." Describing it as "ISIS's
depraved, cowardly strategy," they are being kept near military
installations, to prevent the Iraqi army from advancing.

The UN says that the ISIS stronghold of Hamam al-Alil used to have a
population of 23,000, but now has a population of 60,000, in order to
slow an Iraqi army attack.

In addition, the UN is expressing "deep concern" at reports that some
individuals in the areas south of Mosul have embarked on revenge
killings and had vowed on television that there will be “eye for eye
revenge” against those who sided with ISIS. United Nations and Hurriyet (Ankara)

****
**** Conflicts among ethnic groups lead to chaos in Mosul operation
****

Retired Army Gen. David H. Petraeus was once commander of the U.S.-led
forces in Iraq, and he led the troop surge in 2007 that expelled
Al-Qaeda in Iraq. So he completely understands the issues that the
Iraqi army coalition is facing in its attempts to expel ISIS from
Mosul.

According to Petraeus, the Mosul campaign is unfolding "in quite a
methodical way," and is a "textbook example" of such an operation.
But he points out that the chaotic nature of the operation is caused
by ethnic differences in both the Iraqi security forces and the
millions of civilians being liberated:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Iraqi security forces [are] this mix of Iraqi
> army, Iraqi police, Kurdish peshmerga, the Iraqi counter-terrorism
> service, the Iraqi air force, popular mobilization units — some
> Shia Arab from the south, some Sunni Arab from the tribes of
> Nineveh province. And the challenge is going to be, first of all,
> to keep all of them pulling in the same direction. ...
>
> As we used to say when I was privileged to be the commander there,
> Nineveh province has the most diverse human terrain in all of Iraq
> – Sunni Arab majority to be sure, but also Shia Arabs, numerous
> Kurdish communities, and they are broken out into several
> different political parties.
>
> There are Yazidis. There are Shabak. There are Christians. And
> there are Turkmen Shias, as well as Turkmen Sunnis, and this
> explains why President [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan of Turkey has been
> so vocal about the fact that the Turkish forces needed to be on
> the outskirts of Mosul should take some part in this
> effort."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The situation in the Mosul operation is even worse, according to
Israeli analyst Anshel Pfeffer:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"On the ground, however, totally separate battles are
> being fought out. The Iraqi Army, the Peshmerga, Shi’ite-Iraqi
> militias and United States Special Forces teams are all rival
> forces, albeit with a common enemy, for now. They are all fighting
> ISIS while pursuing very different agenda.
>
> The Iraqi Army are not even allowed into the territory of the
> Kurdish Regional Government without special authorization, and the
> Peshmerga constantly complain of how almost all the new weapons
> supplied by the Americans have gone to Baghdad’s forces, with the
> Kurdish fighters receiving only scraps. ...
>
> “The Americans don’t learn,” says one Peshmerga officer. “The
> Iraqi army will just run away, leaving their new American weapons
> to ISIS. Just as they did two years ago.”"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Petraeus and Pfeffer agree that all the different armies and militias
have a common objective to eject ISIS, and they'll succeed. But with
growing Kurdish nationalism and growing Turkish nationalism, it won't
be long before the different armies are fighting each other. LA Times and Haaretz

Related Articles

• Iraq in major crisis after catastrophic fall of Mosul to ISIS (11-Jun-2014)
  
  
• In repeat of Mosul disaster, Iraqi army abandoned US weapons in Ramadi (20-May-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Mosul, Tal Afar, Kurds, Pershmerga,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Ahmad al-Asadi, Hashd al-Shaabi, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF,
Turkey, David H. Petraeus, Anshel Pfeffer

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 31-Oct-16 World View -- Clinton e-mail media storm shows sudden change in public mood

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Australia proposes lifetime settlement ban on illegal immigrants
  
• Clinton e-mail media storm shows sudden change in public mood
  

****
**** Australia proposes lifetime settlement ban on illegal immigrants
****


Anti-government protestors in Sydney demanding that Manus detention center be closed (Getty)

Australia's prime minister Malcolm Turnbull announced plans to
introduce legislation that will ban illegal immigrants who arrive by
boat from ever being allowed into Australia again, even legally. The
bill is intended to target human traffickers, since their potential
customers will know that they will never have a chance of living in
Australia. According to Turnbull, "These people smugglers are the
worst criminals imaginable. They have a multibillion-dollar
business. It is a battle of will. We have to be very determined to say
no to their criminal plans."

They will have a lifetime ban of coming to Australia, even as a
tourist or as the spouse of an Australian citizen. The only exception
will be children brought illegally by boat by their parents.

The proposed law is retroactive to July 19, 2013, because that is when
the former prime minister Kevin Rudd said: “As of today, asylum
seekers who come here by boat without a visa will never be settled in
Australia.” That means that the migrants currently imprisoned on
Manus or Nauru will be forbidden from ever reaching Australia.

In past years, thousands of refugees from Asia have traveled by boat
to Australia, often after paying huge sums to human traffickers,
hoping to resettle there. Australia has dealt with the situation,
starting in 2001, by setting up two "detention centers" on Pacific
islands, one on Papua New Guinea's (PNG's) Manus Island, and one on
the island nation of Nauru, under agreements reached with both
countries. Australia intercepts the boat people while at sea, and
redirects them to the detention centers. These two filthy,
rat-infested detention centers have been enormously controversial,
with numerous stories of beatings, torture, and sexual abuse at the
detention centers. The detention centers were shut down in 2007, but
reinstated when the number of refugees and asylum seekers surged again
into the thousands.

The detention center policy has been extremely successful, in that the
number of migrants reaching Australia has been sharply reduced.
However, the policy has been widely condemned as cruel to people
fleeing poverty and violence, and as a violation of international
laws. The proposed law will receive substantial opposition during
attempts to get it passed.
Australian AP and Sydney Morning Herald

Related Articles

• Papua New Guinea Supreme Court bombshell throws Australia's refugee policy into chaos (30-Apr-2016)
  
  
• Australia accused of paying people smugglers to take migrants to Indonesia (13-Jun-2015)
  
  
• Australia to send 'boat people' to Papua New Guinea (21-Jul-2013)
  

****
**** Clinton e-mail media storm shows sudden change in public mood
****

Whenever there's a sudden change in public mood in any country, it's
of interest to Generational Dynamics, because it's often a sign that
generational pressures have been building, and the change in public
mood is caused by the latest rise of a new generation.

Whatever the outcome of Friday's announcement by FBI Director James
B. Comey potentially reopening the Clinton e-mail investigation,
whether it helps or hurts Clinton or Trump, the unexpected media storm
that followed the announcement is potentially significant.

My personal belief is that Comey made his announcement to cover his
ass, for whatever reason. I also believe that he made the
announcement on Friday afternoon expecting that, like almost all
Friday afternoon announcements, it would be forgotten almost
immediately. But that's not what happened. Instead of being
forgotten, Comey's announcement is continuing to gain coverage in the
mainstream media, which is a major surprise.

The standard is that massive criminal activity and corruption by
politicians in Washington is simply ignored. As I've been writing for
years, thousands of Gen-X bankers purposely created trillions of
dollars worth of fraudulent subprime mortgage backed synthetic
securities, and then sold them to investors, knowing that they're
fraudulent, creating a massive financial crisis that made millions of
people bankrupt and/or homeless. And yet, not a single one of them
has ever been prosecuted, but instead they've gotten off by
contributing a fraction of their fraudulent gains as contributions to
the Obama administration. And in Congress, as Peter Schweizer showed
in 2011 appearing on 60 Minutes, Congressmen and Senators of
both parties are using inside information on secret lawmaking
negotiations to line their pockets with huge profits in the stock
markets. Ordinary people would go to jail for insider trading for
this sleazy behavior, but Congress has conveniently exempted itself,
allowing it to commit crimes and enrich themselves on a daily basis
and get away with it.

The massive corruption and criminal activity in Washington is far
greater than anything in my lifetime, much greater than ever occurred
in Richard Nixon's administration. But today, the Washington standard
is that criminal activities go unpunished. In the case of Hillary
Clinton's e-mail activities, the mainstream media are so totally in
the tank for Clinton, no longer even pretending to be unbiased
journalists, that it's a shock to everyone that the stories around
Comey's announcement are not only continuing, but growing.

The Republicans are gloating of course, because this is so unexpected.
The Democrats are apoplectic with rage because they're suffering from
a case of cognitive dissonance and are going through the five stages
of grief, as all their fundamental beliefs about their right to commit
criminal activity with impunity are suddenly being challenged.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what's interesting
here is not whether Clinton is guilty or innocent, but why there is a
sudden change in public mood that might mean that her allegedly
criminal activities might actually have consequences this time. It
may actually be possible that after years of not caring about
corruption and criminal activity in Washington, the public suddenly
does care. If true, this change would be extremely significant.

That someone in Washington, and Clinton in particular, could possibly
face this kind of hostile media scrutiny may represent a major change
in public mood that will be seen in other ways in the months to come,
no matter who becomes president. Washington Post and Leon Festinger - Cognitive Dissonance Theory

Related Articles

• Wells Fargo receives laughable 'punishment' for massive criminal fraud (29-Sep-2016)
  
  
• 'The Big Short' - an infuriating movie about the financial crisis (26-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Peter Schweizer exposes massive Washington corruption on '60 Minutes' (14-Nov-2011)
  
  
• Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings provide 'smoking gun' evidence of widespread criminal fraud (14-Apr-2010)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Australia, Malcolm Turnbull, Kevin Rudd,
Papua New Guinea, PNG, Manus Island, Nauru,
James B. Comey, Hillary Clinton, Richard Nixon, Peter Schweizer

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 1-Nov-16 World View -- France pulls out of Central African Republic as sectarian violence grows

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• France pulls out of Central African Republic as sectarian violence grows
  
• Widespread dissatisfaction with UN peacekeeping force MINUSCA
  

****
**** France pulls out of Central African Republic as sectarian violence grows
****


French peacekeeping force in Central African Republic (AFP)

France on Monday formally ended its peacekeeping mission in Central
African Republic. Using an old trick to "just declare victory and go
home," France hailed it as a success even though it's been pretty much
a total failure, as violence in the country's civil war has continued
in recent months and even surged.

The French mission, known as Sangaris, was launched in December 2013,
and was supposed to last for six months, until a United Nations force
could take over. The UN force is known as MINUSCA, which stands for
Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central
African Republic. The French force had 2,500 troops at its peak, and
MINUSCA has about 12,000 troops.

The CAR sectarian war began in March 2013, when François Bozizé, the
Christian former president of CAR, was ousted in a coup in March 2013
by Michel Djotodia, a Muslim, who became president and served until
January 2014.

After Djotodia's coup took place in March 2013, Muslim Seleka militias
began committing atrocities, particularly targeting the Christian
constituencies of the deposed François Bozizé. In December 2013,
French Foreign Legion peacekeeping troops arrived to disarm the Seleka
militias.

The actions of the French troops backfired. When the Muslim Seleka
troops were disarmed, the Christian anti-balaka militias "rushed into
the vacuum," and began committing atrocities in 2014, for revenge
against the Selekas. Since then, both Christians and Muslims have
been committing atrocities, and it's become a full-scale generational
crisis war. Thousands have been killed, and millions have been
displaced.

As I've explained in the past, CAR's last generational crisis war was
the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which
was a very long time ago, putting CAR today deep into a generational
Crisis era, where a new crisis civil war has already started.

France's defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian announced the withdrawal
of the French troops, saying that MINUSCA is now ready to take full
responsibility for the peacekeeping operation.

A prominent CAR official, Anicet Georges Dologuele, said that Le Drian
was wrong:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Sangaris is pulling out far too early. Our security
> forces are not ready to take over. The UN forces are more and
> more overwhelmed."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Le Drian was unsympathetic:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"It's always too early. These responsibilities are
> above all your own."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

There are still numerous armed groups fighting in CAR. The main ones
are the Muslim former Seleka force, and the Christian "anti-Balaka"
militias, a reference to the machetes used by the Selekas. There are
also vigilante groups made up of nomadic, predominantly Muslim Fulani
herders, as well as others specializing in highway robbery.

Both the French forces and the MINUSCA forces have mainly been doing
their "peacekeeping" in the region around the country's capital city
Bangui. But CAR is a huge country, and much of the country has not
been affected by "peacekeeping" at all. Thus there continues to be
fighting among armed groups across the country.

Since the armed militias are reported to fear the French forces more
than the MINUSCA forces, there are concerns that the withdrawal of the
French forces will trigger a major surge in new violence. France 24 and Deutsche Welle

Related Articles

• Violence resurges in Central African Republic's crisis civil war (10-Jul-2016)
  
  
• France says Central African Republic has totally collapsed (11-Apr-2014)
  

****
**** Widespread dissatisfaction with UN peacekeeping force MINUSCA
****

During the past 18 months, there have been scores of allegations of
child rape and other sexual abuse by MINUSCA's peacekeepers, though
French troops have faced similar accusations.

Roland Marchal, of the National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS)
in Paris, speaking on RFI, agreed that MINUSCA is not ready to take
full responsibility for the peacekeeping operation, because they fail
to act decisively, "they find an explanation not to move too quickly,
not to move to the neighborhoods, and they procrastinate on making
difficult decisions." He says that this sends a wrong message to the
CAR population, who feel that MINUSCA is not doing its job. "The
crisis is deep, it's structural, it's systemic, so you have to make
radical decisions, to integrate more the countryside," and neither
MINUSCA nor the government is willing to do that.

Marchal added that the French troops were not able to fulfill their
mandate either, although they were there for three years. "Their
mandate was to disarm armed groups, and have the country move to
national reconciliation. But it became clear that disarming the armed
groups would actually be a very hard task, and costly, and second, to
undertake drastic reforms in car you need a legitimate government."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is exactly what
is to be expected, as I've been writing since 2013 when the crisis
began. CAR is in a generational crisis war, and a generational crisis
war does not until there's an "explosive climax," something so
horrific that both sides decide to stop fighting. This could be a
real "explosion," such as the nuking of Japan that ended World War II,
or it could be a massive act of genocide. Whatever it is, it must be
so bad that it will be remembered for decades or even centuries, and
will convince the survivors that it must "never again" be allowed to
happen -- and it doesn't, as long as the survivors are alive.

We're seeing the same kind of situation in Africa's other generational
crisis war -- the Darfur war. It's a similar story. In 2007, the a
UN Security Council resolution established the United Nations–African
Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID), and provided peacekeeping troops to
protect the Darfurians. Millions of people who were threatened with
violence were moved from their villages to camps for refugees and IDPs
(internally displaced persons) controlled by UNAMID. Today, there are
still more than 3.1 million IDPs living in these refugee camps, and
they are still suffering from hunger, thirst, and attacks from the
militias that were attacking them ten years ago. Once again, the
Darfur war will not end until there's a "explosive climax," a massive
act of genocide that will convince all the survivors to stop fighting.
Until then, the war goes on. RFI (Paris) and Al Jazeera

Related Articles

• Darfur in Sudan facing new genocide as refugees are expelled from camps (08-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Sectarian violence continues to grow in Central African Republic (17-Jul-2014)
  
  
• U.S. to help France in Central African Republic military intervention (10-Dec-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Central African Republic, Sangaris,
Michel Djotodia, François Bozizé, Seleka, anti-Balaka, MINUSCA,
Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic,
Kongo-Wara Rebellion, War of the Hoe Handle, Jean-Yves Le Drian,
Anicet Georges Dologuele, Roland Marchal,
Sudan, Darfur, UNAMID

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Nov-16 World View -- Protests across Morocco after horrific death of fishmonger in garbage truck

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Wife of North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un has disappeared
  
• Protests across Morocco after horrific death of fishmonger in garbage truck
  

****
**** Wife of North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un has disappeared
****


Kim Jong-un and Ri Sol-ju in 2012

After the pretty Ri Sol-ju married North Korea's child dictator Kim
Jong-un in 2012, they were often seen together in tours of factories,
hospitals and parks. But now Ri has not been seen in public since
March 28, and there's speculation that something has happened to her.

There are several theories:

• The most prevalent theory is that Ri may have angered the
  leader's younger sister, Kim Yo-jong, who is increasingly emerging as
  the power behind her brother's throne.
  
• Another theory is that Kim is simply tired of her, and sent her
  away. Or perhaps she suffered the same fate as Kim's uncle, Jang
  Song-thaek, who was Kim's mentor until Kim became dissatisfied with
  him and, according to some reports, had him eaten alive by ravenous
  dogs.
  
• Kim has gained 70 pounds in the last year, and reportedly has been
  drinking heavily. This may have caused marital problems.
  
• There have been reports of instability in Kim's government, and
  it's possible that Ri is being closely guarded for her own
  protection.
  
• More prosaically, she may be pregnant, and prefers to stay out of
  sight for the time being until the child is born.

Related Articles

• Was North Korea's Kim Jong-un's uncle eaten by ravenous dogs? (04-Jan-2014)
  
  
• N. Korea's Kim Jong-un gains 70 pounds, tells citizens to 'eat roots' (02-Apr-2016)
  
  
• N. Korea's Kim Jong-un struggles for stability, purging 'factionalist elements'
  

****
**** Protests across Morocco after horrific death of fishmonger in garbage truck
****

Protests have continued across Morocco for a fourth day on Tuesday
over the death of Mouhcine Fikri, a fishmonger, crushed by a garbage
truck.

The story is this: It's apparently illegal to sell swordfish in
Morocco at this time, but Fikri was selling swordfish anyway, after
purchasing it at the port in the town of Al Hoceima in northern
Morocco. A policeman confiscated his swordfish, reportedly worth
about $11,000, and threw it into a garbage truck. Fikri jumped into
the garbage truck to retrieve his fish, and he was crushed to death by
the garbage truck. Some people who were present claim that the
policeman told the garbage truck driver to crush him on purpose,
though the police deny this.

The picture of Fikri being crushed went viral on social media, and
triggered anti-government protests across the country. On Tuesday,
the government announced the arrests of 11 people, in an attempt to
stop the protests.

The "Arab Spring" has been roiling the Arab countries since 2011, when
a new generation of Arabs came of age and began protesting across the
entire Mideast.

The Arab Spring uprisings were triggered on December 17, 2010, when a
street vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi set fire to himself in Sidi Bouzid in
central Tunisia, in protest of the police confiscation of his
vegetable cart. After days of clashes between protesters and the
police, long-time dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was forced to flee
the country to exile in Saudi Arabia. By January 2011, the clashes
had spread to Egypt, Libya, Yemen, and Lebanon, launching the Arab
Spring.

Morocco is a Muslim country, but it has largely escaped the chaos of
the Arab Spring, mainly because it's historically been ethnically
Berber rather than Arab, putting it on a slightly different
generational timeline, despite some Arab-Berber intermarriage.

Some analysts are comparing the death of Moroccan fishmonger Mouhcine
Fikri to the death of Tunisian street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi, and
suggesting that Morocco might be about to undergo the same kind of
chaos as the countries of the Arab Spring. From the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, one can safely predict that Morocco is headed
for that chaos, but whether it's happening now or next year or the
year after cannot be predicted.

Al Hoceima is in the Rif region of northern Morocco, with a population
of about 55,000. The region was the heart of of the revolt against
the Spanish colonists during the 1920s, and was the scene of a popular
insurrection in 1958. Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Al Jazeera and Quartz and Telegramme.info

Related Articles

• A look back at Libya in 2011 as the West debates another military intervention (05-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Concerns grow about Tunisia's stability as economic protests escalate (17-Sep-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, Ri Sol-ju,
Kim Yo-jong, Jang Song-thaek,
Morocco, Mouhcine Fikri, Arab Spring,
Tunisia, Sidi Bouzid, Mohamed Bouazizi, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali,
Egypt, Libya, Yemen, Lebanon, Arabs, Berbers

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-Nov-16 World View -- Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China
  
• Sudan follows Uganda, Namibia in cutting ties with North Korea
  

****
**** Hong Kong legislature in chaos, under threat of intervention by mainland China
****


Newly elected lawmaker Baggio Leung is restrained by security while attempting to deliver his oath of office (AFP)

Hong Kong's legislative election on September 4 handed Beijing a
stinging defeat, as pro-democracy or "localist" candidates won 27 out
of 70 seats for the Legislative Council of Hong Kong (LegCo). There
was little doubt at the time that this would substantially exacerbate
the level of tension between Hong Kong and Beijing, and now, we're
seeing the first results.

Hong Kong's LegCo has been in chaos for almost a month, thanks to two
newly elected lawmakers, Yau Wai-ching and Sixtus Baggio Leung
Chun-hang, from "Youngspiration" who have gone beyond "pro-democracy"
to advocating full Hong Kong independence from China.

When they took their oaths of office on October 12, they change the
wording of the official oath of office to express support for Hong
Kong's independence, and to describe China using a derogatory term.
Their oaths were invalidated, and since then, pro-Beijing legislators
have been staging walkouts and using other parliamentary tricks to
keep them from being seated at all.

Anticipating trouble on Wednesday, the LegCo president moved the
council's meeting from the main chamber to a conference room. The two
localists responded by storming into the conference room and demanded
to take their oaths of office and be seated. They were forcibly
ejected by security personnel.

The two localists will appear in a Hong Kong court on Thursday, and
there are a couple of outcomes that would be extremely controversial:

• The court might rule that the two are disqualified from being
  seated in LegCo. This would be the first time that a Hong Kong court
  overturned a legitimate election of a legislator. Whichever way the
  ruling goes, it would be appealed, and the confrontation would
  continue.
  
  
• Even worse, mainland China's National People’s Congress Standing
  Committee (NPCSC) may preempt the Hong Kong court and intervene, using
  its power to "interpret" Hong Kong laws, as a way of disqualifying the
  two. Such an intervention is likely to trigger large anti-China
  protests.

There is a growing reality with both Taiwan and Hong Kong. Mainland
China's government in Hong Kong has been using a carrot and stick
approach with both entities for years, hoping that the people would
eventually fall in love with Beijing and want to be government by
Beijing. This hope is extremely delusional, of course, but being
delusional is China's only path other than full-scale invasions of
both entities to bring them under control.

For both Hong Kong and Taiwan, the generations of survivors of World
War II and Mao's Communist Revolution have taken steps to encourage
unification with Beijing, or at least to avoid angering Beijing. But
it's increasingly clear to everyone that younger generations are
increasingly hostile to Beijing.

This means that there is no advantage to Beijing to waiting. Taiwan
and Hong Kong will increasingly want independence. Furthermore, as
we've seen with Hong Kong's Umbrella Revolution and Taiwan's Sunflower
Movement, independence movements in Taiwan and Hong Kong feed off of
each other, and support each other, and may even have synergy with
independence movements in Tibet (by Buddhists) or Xinjiang (by
Uighurs). Beijing has already said that that it will violently crush
anyone who even talks about "independence." This is a continually
worsening situation that Beijing is certain to find increasingly
dangerous, enough to trigger a violent reaction at some point.
South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) and BBC and
Global Times (Beijing)

Related Articles

• Sharply polarized Hong Kong electorate hands Beijing a stinging setback (06-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Taiwan's pro-independence party wins historic presidential election (17-Jan-2016)
  
  
• Sunflowers and Umbrellas: Taiwan voters choose independence from China (30-Nov-2014)
  
  
• Hong Kong protesters fear more violence by China's 'Triad' gangs (05-Oct-2014)
  

****
**** Sudan follows Uganda, Namibia in cutting ties with North Korea
****

Under pressure from South Korea, Sudan has ended all military
cooperation and diplomatic connections with North Korea. According to
a statement posted by South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"[Foreign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour of Sudan]
> mentioned that Sudan has completely cut off its military
> cooperation with North Korea, has no North Korean diplomatic
> missions in the country as well as no diplomatic missions of its
> own in the North, and has no plans for high-level exchanges. The
> Minister, calling nuclear weapons an obstacle to peace and
> security, stressed that Sudan is thoroughly implementing UN
> Security Council sanctions resolutions on North
> Korea."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Sudan is the third African country this year to declare that it would
comply with UN sanctions against North Korea. Uganda announced in
July that it would several military and security ties with North
Korea, and this was followed by a decision of Namibia to oust two
North Korean firms that were constructing an arms and munition factory
in nation’s capital, Windhoek.

Other African countries are maintaining ties with North Korea. These
include Angola, DR Congo, Zimbabwe, Burundi, and Equatorial Guinea --
also countries that are themselves targets of UN sanctions. N. Korea News and S. Korea Ministry of Foreign Affairs and NK News (7/28)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Hong Kong,
Legislative Council of Hong Kong, LegCo,
Yau Wai-ching, Sixtus Baggio Leung Chun-hang,
National People’s Congress Standing Committee, NPCSC,
Umbrella Revolution, Taiwan, Sunflower Movement, Tibet, Xinjiang,
North Korea, Sudan, Ibrahim Ghandour, Uganda, Namibia, South Korea,
Angola, DR Congo, Zimbabwe, Burundi, Equatorial Guinea

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John J. Xenakis
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 4-Nov-16 World View -- Britain's Brexit plans in disarray after court requires parliamentary approval

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Britain's Brexit plans in disarray after court requires parliamentary approval
  
• Italy's Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the world's oldest bank, appears close to collapse
  

****
**** Britain's Brexit plans in disarray after court requires parliamentary approval
****


Anti-Brexit protestors on June 25 in London (Getty)

A shock court decision on Thursday threatens to significantly delay
implementation of Brexit, the referendum mandate that Britain leave
the European Union. Negotiations between the UK and the EU are
scheduled to take two years, but that two-year period will not begin
until Britain's prime minister Theresa May invokes "Article 50," which
triggers the beginning of negotiations. May had previously announced
that she planned to invoke Article 50 in March of next year.

However, Britain's High Court on Thursday ruled that Theresa May
cannot invoke Article 50 on her own, without a vote in Britain's House
of Commons and House of Lords.

The court ruling immediately raised hopes in some quarters that Brexit
may therefore not take place at all, though analysts I heard seemed to
doubt that the parliament would be willing to reverse a decision
supported by popular vote in a referendum.

Nonetheless, the path to Brexit implementation is now in disarray
because Parliament will be debating the terms of the Brexit plan.
There are many major issues to be resolved in the negotiations with
the EU -- whether Britain will be part of the European Common Market,
whether Britain will have to continue accepting migrants, whether
Brits will need visas to visit EU countries, and vice versa, how the
land border between Northern Ireland (which is part of Britain) and
the Republic of Ireland (which is an independent nation in the EU)
will be managed, and so forth.

All of these issues require some sort of plan in advance of triggering
Article 50, and May had hoped to keep that plan a secret until then.
But a lot of people suspect that no such plan exists -- that May
doesn't have a clue what positions to take on issues like the ones
listed above. So with the Parliament debating these issues, May will
be forced to take positions on the issues prior to March. EU leaders
will watch these proceedings with a combination of amusement and
horror.

Britain is deeply divided by Brexit, and that extends to the
Parliament. Analysts are predicting that anti-Brexit MPs
will use the debating opportunities to delay the invocation
of Article 50 by up to a year.

May is appealing the decision to Britain's Supreme Court, which will
hear the case in December and issue a ruling in the middle of January
2017. So expect the Brexit controversy to become extremely heated
during the holiday season. Telegraph (London) and BBC

Related Articles

• Scotland considers separation from England as 'Hard Brexit' looms (15-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Bank of England uses 'sledgehammer' stimulus to fight Brexit slowdown (05-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Britain's Millennials are furious at Boomers for Brexit vote (26-Jun-2016)
  

****
**** Italy's Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the world's oldest bank, appears close to collapse
****

A proposed 5 billion euro bailout of Italy's Banco Monte dei Paschi di
Siena (MPS) by a consortium of other banks has been withdrawn, leading
to the possibility that MPS will collapse by the end of the year.

Italy's largest bank is Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS), founded
in 1472, and the world's oldest operating bank. Its share of bad
loans comes to $55.2 billion of bad loans on its books. These bad
loans are so bad that it's estimated that selling these bad loans to a
third party would only get 20% of face value, which means that MPS
would require a bailout.

Investors are concerned that political pressure will force Italy's
government to use taxpayer money to bail out MPS. When Greece used
taxpayer money to bail out its banks, the result was that the
financial crisis spread from the banks to the entire country,
resulting in Greece's financial crisis, which is still unresolved.
Italy's financial problems would be larger than Greece's. Italy also
has a political issue: Prime minister Matteo Renzi has scheduled a
referendum on a constitutional change for December 4, and he has
promised to quit if he loses the vote.

According to a survey of 1,000 investors, Italy is now thought to be
the country most likely to leave the eurozone this year, pushing
Greece into second place. Reuters and Macedonia Online
and The Street

Related Articles

• Italy bank crisis more dangerous to EU than Brexit (05-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Fearing more Brexit-like votes, EU abandons fiscal rules for Spain, Portugal, Italy (30-Jul-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, Brexit, Theresa May, Article 50,
Italy, Banco Monte dei Paschi di Siena, MPS, Matteo Renzi, Greece

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