Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 30-Apr-17 World View -- European Union lays out demands for Britain over Brexit negotiations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• European Union lays out demands for Britain over Brexit negotiations
  
• Sharp disagreements ahead over the 60 billion euro Brexit 'divorce settlement'
  
• Corrections to yesterday's article on Macedonia
  

****
**** European Union lays out demands for Britain over Brexit negotiations
****


EU Commission President Jean-Claude Jüncker (left) and EU Council President Donald Tusk in Brussels on Saturday (Getty)

The leaders of the EU-27, the 27 member nations of the European Union
not including Britain, laid out their negotiating demands for the
United Kingdom at a meeting in Brussels on Saturday.

The UK passed the Brexit referendum, calling for Britain to leave the
European Union, on June 23 of last year. On March 29 of this year,
Britain's prime minister Theresa May invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon
Treaty, making the Brexit process irreversible, and triggering a
two-year period of negotiations before the exit is final. Theresa May
has called for new elections on June 8, and so serious negotiations
are expected to begin at that time.

Britain would like to immediately start negotiating a trade deal, but
the EU leaders on Saturday said that trade could not be discussed at
all until the terms of the "divorce" had been resolved. In
particular, the EU-27 is demanding that three questions be resolved
first:

• The highest priority issue would be "citizens' rights." This
  refers to UK citizens living in the EU-27, and EU-27 citizens living
  in the UK. There are 5.4 million of these, and their lives have been
  thrown into chaos by the Brexit referendum, since they have no idea
  whether they'll continue to be living and working as they have been.
  The issues involve things like pensions, social security, work
  benefits, medical care, and so forth.
  
  
• The next highest priority is the "divorce bill." The EU wants to
  charge Britain about €60 billion in payments already committed to
  farmers, scientists, and a variety of programs.
  
  
• The third divorce issue is the land border between Northern
  Ireland, which is part of Britain, and the Republic of Ireland, which
  is an independent country that will remain part of the European Union.
  The EU-27 is requiring that all parts of the "Good Friday Agreement"
  be maintained, which means that there should be free flow of people
  and goods across the border.

The purpose of Saturday's meeting in Brussels was to get approval from
the 27 remaining countries of the EU on the negotiation guidelines.
EU officials bragged that the negotiation guidelines were approved
unanimously within four minutes.

The president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Jüncker, warned
Britain that many British politicians were vastly overestimating the
benefits that they'll gain from Brexit, and vastly underestimating the
difficulties that they'll have in the Brexit negotiations:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We have already prepared a text that could be adopted
> immediately if our British friends would be willing to sign it,
> but that probably won’t happen. I have the impression sometimes
> that our British friends, not all of them, do underestimate the
> technical difficulties we have to face. ... Privately everything
> went well but we have a problem, the British want to leave the EU
> and it's not feasible that it can be done just like that.
>
> The single question of citizens' rights is in fact a cortège of 25
> questions that have to be solved.
>
> I would like to state very clearly that we need real guarantees
> for our people who live, work and study in the UK and the same
> goes for the Brits. The commission has prepared a full list of the
> rights and benefits that we want to guarantee for those affected
> by Brexit. To achieve sufficient progress we need a serious
> British response."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

As an aside, I chuckled at Jüncker's use of the word "cortège."
Jüncker was undoubtedly referring to some (unpublished) list of 25
questions, but the word "cortège" is a French word usually used in the
context of a funeral procession, which perhaps Jüncker was afraid was
happening.

According to the guidelines, negotiations on trade and other issues
cannot begin until the three issues listed above have been resolved.
BBC and
Daily Mail (London) and EU Negotiation Guidelines

Related Articles

• Fallout from Brexit: Impact on geopolitics, economics, and stock markets (25-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Brexit: The die is cast, and the EU is playing hardball (31-Mar-2017)
  

****
**** Sharp disagreements ahead over the 60 billion euro Brexit 'divorce settlement'
****

Britain's prime minister Theresa May rejected some of the hardline
demands that were put forth at Saturday's meeting in Brussels. She
said that she was sticking to her own demands outlined in a speech
earlier this year which included tariff-free trade, ending the
jurisdiction of European courts and stopping free movement of
migrants.

According to May, "What matters sitting around that table is a strong
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, with a strong mandate from the
people of the United Kingdom which will strengthen our negotiating
hand to ensure we get that possible deal."

One of the most difficult demands will be the Brexit "divorce
settlement," the demand that Britain commit to pay 50-60 billion euros
to the EU to cover EU spending up until 2020 when the current budget
runs out. According to the negotiating guidelines:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"10. A single financial settlement should ensure that
> the Union and the United Kingdom both respect the obligations
> undertaken before the date of withdrawal. The settlement should
> cover all legal and budgetary commitments as well as liabilities,
> including contingent liabilities."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

The settlement includes such things as pension payments to British
nationals working for EU employers, and spending commitments for
contributions to EU projects and social programs, based on past
agreements. It also includes guarantees on loans such as the bailout
of Ireland, and spending on infrastructure and structural funds agreed
to but still to be financed.

An additional demand is that all amounts must be paid in euros. This
is a particularly painful demand, because the British pound currency
has lost almost 10% in value since the Brexit referendum passed last
year. Telegraph (London) and Daily Mail (London) and Politico (EU)

****
**** Corrections to yesterday's article on Macedonia
****

Early versions of yesterday's article on Macedonia contained several
errors. They've been corrected in the final version.
I apologize for the errors.


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Britain, European Union, Brexit,
Jean-Claude Jüncker, Donald Tusk, Theresa May

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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[Warren Dew]

Shouldn't take more than 4 minutes for May to get those issues out of the way.

- No rights for EU citizens
- No payments to the EU after Brexit
- UK to enforce its choice of border rules at the Irish border

Then if the EU wants to do something different, they can start offering trade concessions.

The UK can impose these unilaterally, so the EU can't do much about them unless they are willing to use military force. Are they ready to do that?

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 1-May-17 World View -- France's Eurosceptic Marine Le Pen starts to backtrack on euro policy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• France's presidential election in doubt because of abstainers
  
• France's Eurosceptic Marine Le Pen starts to backtrack on euro policy
  

****
**** France's presidential election in doubt because of abstainers
****


A youth kicks a teargas canister in Paris on Thursday during a protest against both Le Pen and Macron (AFP)

In the upcoming decisive May 7 final round in France's election of a
new president, Emmanuel Macron, the centrist 39-year-old former
investment banker, is expected to beat 48-year-old far-right candidate
Marine Le Pen by about 20 points, based on current polling.
Mainstream media observers are hoping for an even bigger Le Pen
defeat, which would be a repeat of the 2002 election.

When Marine Le Pen's father, 73 year old Jean-Marie Le Pen, then
leader of the Front National, received 17% of the vote in first round
of France's presidential election on April 21, 2002, he knocked the
former socialist prime minister, Lionel Jospin, out of the
second-round runoff. This was such a shock to the French public, that
all other parties and candidates rallied against Le Pen in what was
called the "Republican front," and gave the conservative candidate
Jacques Chirac a massive victory with 82% of the vote. In other
words, Le Pen didn't get any additional votes in the second round than
he did in the first.

Now Marine Le Pen has won 21.3% of the votes in the first round of
France's presidential election on April 23, 2017, knocking out the
Republican, François Fillon, the Socialist, Benoît Hamon, and the
far-left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon. This sets up a two-way race
between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, the 39-year-old centrist
who won 24% of the vote of the vote in the first round.

The question is: will another "Republican front" emerge in 2017, as it
did in 2002? Will all other parties, candidates and voters
unanimously rally against Le Pen, in favor of Macron? We already know
that's not going to happen.

First, Mélenchon is refusing to endorse either Le Pen or Macron. He
announced to his supporters:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"You don't need me to tell you who to vote. I'm not a
> guru, not a guide."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

After Marine Le Pen responded by saying that she would go after
Mélenchon's voters, Mélenchon's spokesman Alexis Corbière said, "Not
one vote should go to the National Front," implying that Mélenchon
really does support Macron. According to a poll, Mélenchon's voters
would break 40% for Macron and 19% for Le Pen -- and 41% would
abstain.

And that's the second major issue: the abstainers. Many college
students are opposed to both Le Pen and Macron, and some are violently
opposed, as shown on Thursday by several hundred school students who
threw glasses and smoke bombs at police during a "Neither Marine, nor
Macron" demonstration in Paris.

One 18-year-old girl told RFI:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I don’t want to choose between liberalism and
> fascism. Don’t need someone who worked for the bank, with his
> program he’s going to put France in the sh-t, but fascism isn’t
> the solution either. I don’t want to choose between two
> diseases."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Macron left investment banking and launched his political career as
economy minister in the Socialist government of the current president,
François Hollande. Macron quit Hollande's government in August of
last year, and built up his own political following.

Both Macron and Le Pen have family issues. In 2007, Macron pursued
and married a woman 25 years older, the now 64 year old Brigitte
Trogneux, a mother of three who left her husband for Macron. Le Pen
is twice-divorced mother of three.

What effects all this will have on the election results is anyone's
guess. As in the case of Donald Trump, the mainstream media are
opposed to Le Pen to the point of incoherence, so it's impossible to
figure out what's going on from media reports. AFP and Deutsche Welle and RFI

****
**** France's Eurosceptic Marine Le Pen starts to backtrack on euro policy
****

Marine Le Pen has campaigned against immigration, Islam, globalism,
NATO, the European Union, and the euro currency. She has advocated
"Frexit," by which she means that France should leave the eurozone and
return to the French franc currency, and possibly leave the European
Union altogether, just like Britain and Brexit. Many people fear that
if she wins, then the entire European project will be in jeopardy.

However, there are two signs that those fears are overblown.

The first sign is that the European Union nations appear to have come
together in greater unity as a result of the coming negotiations for
Britain's leaving the European Union, as we described yesterday.

The second reason is that Le Pen herself appears to be backtracking on
her position on the euro. This would be similar to what's happened
with Donald Trump, who backed off some of his extreme positions while
the election campaign was still on, and has backed off further since
becoming president.

Le Pen's stated policy platforms in the past have included:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"To support French companies in the face of unfair
> international competition through the implementation of
> intelligent protectionism and the restoration of a national
> currency adapted to our economy, the vehicle of our
> competitiveness. ...
>
> Monetary and budgetary sovereignty, because there is no free-state
> without a currency, and then economic sovereignty, to be able to
> implement economic patriotism. ...
>
> The euro is the currency of the bankers, not the people who have
> seen the decline of its purchasing power and mass
> unemployment."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Le Pen is now facing up to the reality that leaving the euro currency
is one of the least popular of her policies, as most of her voter base
is more concerned about immigration and Islam.

So last week, in an interview, she said:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"This means converting the single currency into a
> common euro, a currency that will not affect daily purchases, but
> only large companies that trade internationally."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

She's also loosened her timetable. In past she promised a "Frexit"
referendum within six months of taking office, but now she's saying:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The transition from the single currency to the
> European common currency is not a pre-requisite of all economic
> policy, the timetable will adapt to the immediate priorities and
> challenges facing the French government.
>
> Everything will be done to ensure an orderly transition ...and the
> coordinated construction of the right for each country to control
> its own currency and its central bank."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

So she's no longer talking about a referendum, and she's no longer
talking about leaving the euro currency. As far as I can make out,
she wants to have TWO euro currencies, one for international trade,
and one for daily purposes. This is totally delusional, and appears
to me to be to be a sign of desperation. Euro News and Reuters and Bloomberg

Related Articles

• European Union lays out demands for Britain over Brexit negotiations (30-Apr-2017)
  
  
• EU officials increasingly fear a Marine Le Pen upset victory in France's elections (20-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Brexit: The die is cast, and the EU is playing hardball (31-Mar-2017)
  
  
• France heads for chaos in Sunday's first round election for President (22-Apr-2007)
  
  
• Sarkozy begins term as activist President of France (19-May-2007)
  
  
• Tony Blair: We need jobs, not subsidies for cows (24-Jun-2005)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron,
Jean-Marie Le Pen, Front National, Jacques Chirac, Jean-Luc Mélenchon,
Brexit, Frexit

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

Death to the Human Rights Tyranny. Death to the globalist tyranny.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-May-17 World View -- Japan's largest warship, the JS Izumo, will escort and defend a US supply ship

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Japan's largest warship, the JS Izumo, will escort and defend a US supply ship
  
• Japan moves from 'self-defense' to 'collective self-defense'
  

****
**** Japan's largest warship, the JS Izumo, will escort and defend a US supply ship
****


A helicopter lands on the decks of the JS Izumo (Reuters)

Japan's largest naval destroyer, the JS Izumo, has left port on a
mission to escort and defend a US supply ship that will refuel the USS
Carl Vinson aircraft carrier strike group, which has been traveling to
the region in response to threats from North Korea.

Something like this would have been unimaginable two years ago, for
several reasons. First, it would have been thought unnecessary.
Second, it would have been thought to be too provocative to China.
And third, it's a dramatic departure Japan's pacifist constitution,
adopted after World War II.

Today, all three of these reasons have changed dramatically, in this
generational Crisis era.. First, it's thought to be necessary because
North Korea has been making specific threats to target American ships,
and has been testing missiles and nuclear weapons in support of that
threat.

Second, both China and North Korea have become increasingly warlike
and belligerent, and both have been making implied or explicit
military threats. In the last two years, China has had a huge
military buildup in the South China Sea, in proven violation of
international law, and has been annexing regions in the South China
Sea that have been owned or used by other countries for centuries.

And the third change is an outcome of the previous two. As I've been
writing for years, in this generational Crisis era, it seems that
almost every nation on earth has become increasingly nationalistic and
xenophobic, whether in America, Europe, the Mideast or Asia. The
mutual xenophobia between China and Japan has been simmering for a
long time, but because of the increased war buildup of both China and
North Korea, the mood of Japan's population has become far more
nationalistic than before, allowing the prime minister Shinzo Abe to
bring about a modification to Japan's pacifist constitution. The Diplomat and BBC

Related Articles

• Why is a US carrier group strike force going to the Korean peninsula? (11-Apr-2017)
  
  
• US aircraft carrier strike force heads for Korean peninsula (10-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Japan's largest warship will train with US Navy in the South China Sea (14-Mar-2017)
  
  
• US reaffirms defense of Japan's Senkaku Islands (28-Apr-2015)
  

****
**** Japan moves from 'self-defense' to 'collective self-defense'
****

Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe has long been advocating the removal
of the self-defense clause of Japan's constitution that forbids any
military action except to defend against a military attack on Japanese
soil. However, the votes necessary to pass a constitutional amendment
have never been available.

But he was able to get Japan's Diet (parliament) to pass an ordinary
law that reinterprets the phrase "self-defense" to mean "collective
self-defense." This is a doctrine that permits any country to legally
pursue foreign military action anywhere in the world in order to
defend its allies.

There's already been one test of the new "collective self-defense"
policy. In November of last year, Japan deployed 350 SDF
(Self-Defense Forces) troops to South Sudan to act as peacekeeping
forces. There were SDF forces in South Sudan in the past, but they
were restricted to non-combat roles such as rebuilding roads and
refugee camps. The November deployment permitted them to engage in
combat if they're attacked, or if other nations' peacekeepers are
attacked. Since then, no actual combat has been reported.

That was the first time since the end of World War II that Japan's
military was permitted to engage in combat for any reason outside
of Japanese soil, and even that minor deployment was extremely
controversial in Japan.

The deployment of the JS Izumo to escort and defend a US supply
ship is a big leap forward in use of Japan's new collective
self-defense doctrine, and will further increase the nationalism in
Japan, North Korea and China. Japan Times

Related Articles

• Japan's troops in South Sudan become first test of new 'collective self-defense' policy (19-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan (05-May-2014)
  
  
• China reacts harshly to Japan's plans for 'collective self-defense' (18-Jul-2015)
  
  
• Japan finally adopts 'collective self-defense' laws, departing from pacifism (19-Sep-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, JS Izumo, North Korea,
USS Carl Vinson, South China Sea, Shinzo Abe,
collective self-defense

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 3-May-17 World View -- US military moves to protect Syrian Kurds from Turkey's military

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kurdish forces in Syria take Tabqa city en route to Raqqa
  
• US military moves to protect Syrian Kurds from Turkey's military
  

****
**** Kurdish forces in Syria take Tabqa city en route to Raqqa
****


Boy sits on a tank turret amidst the destruction of Syria's war (AFP)

There are three different sets of forces operating in Syria: The
Syrian regime + Russia, Turkey + the Free Syrian Army (FSA) comprised
mainly of ethnic Syrian Turkmens, and the US-led coalition + the
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) comprised mostly of Kurds from the
People's Protection Units (YPG). Today, these three forces are united
by their common enemy, the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL
or Daesh).

On Tuesday, the US-backed SDF said that it had recaptured 90% of the
city of Tabqa from ISIS. Tabqa is 45 km west of Raqqa, which is the
ISIS stronghold, and the main objective of the current operations to
defeat ISIS. ISIS captured Raqqa in January 2014.

The victory is significant because it further establishes the Kurdish
YPG as the most effective fighting force in the region against ISIS.
Al Jazeera

****
**** US military moves to protect Syrian Kurds from Turkey's military
****

As we reported last week,
Turkey's
warplanes in Syria struck Kurdish militias known as the People's
Protection Units, or YPG, who are allies of the US-led coalition
fighting ISIS. The YPG said that Turkey's airstrikes, which took
place on Tuesday of last week, killed 20 of its fighters and wounded
18 others, and caused extensive damage to YPG headquarters and nearby
civilian property.

The US military considers the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF),
comprised mostly of YPG Kurds, to be the most effective fighting force
in the region against ISIS, but the YPG has links to the Kurdistan
Workers' Party (PKK), which has conducted numerous bloody terror
attacks in Turkey, and an on-and-off civil war for decades. As a
result, the US considers the YPG to be an ally, while Turkey considers
them to be an enemy.

To protect the Kurds from the Turks, US troops in armored vehicles on
Friday started patrolling Kurdish areas in Syria as a kind of "buffer"
between the Kurds and Turkey. Video from the area shows vehicles with
US and Kurdish flags together.

A statement from the US military says:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Coalition forces are conducting joint patrols along
> the northeastern Syria-Turkey border to assess reports from both
> the SDF and Turkey regarding skirmishes and cross-border fires
> between their respective security forces.
>
> The patrols’ purpose is to discourage escalation and violence
> between two of our most trusted (counter-ISIS) partners and
> reinforce the U.S. commitment to both Turkey and the SDF in their
> fight against ISIS.
>
> We ask both of our partners to focus their efforts on ISIS. ISIS
> poses the greatest threat to peace and stability in the region,
> and indeed the entire world."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Turkey's president Tayyip Recep Erdogan says that he'll meet with
President Trump on May 16th, and he'll say that US support for the YPG
Kurds must end, and that the Turkish attacks on YPG Kurds will
continue:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"This needs to end. Otherwise we will have to take the
> matter into our own hands. It is better for them to live in fear
> than us being worried [about terror attacks from the
> PKK]."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Erdogan said that Turkey needs to "drain the swamp," and that Turkey's
military will solve the (PKK) terrorism problem by itself if the US
refuses to do so.

As I've said in the past, the factions fighting in Syria today -- the
US, the Syrian regime, Russia, the Kurds, the Turks, and the
"moderate" regime opposition -- all these factions are united today
because they're all fighting the common enemy, ISIS. But once ISIS is
defeated in Raqqa, ISIS's headquarters, then all bets are off.
AP and Anadolu (Turkey) and Daily Sabah (Turkey)

Related Articles

• Turkey's warplanes strike Kurdish militias fighting ISIS in Syria and Iraq (26-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Turkey returns to war with the Kurdish PKK (03-Aug-2015)
  
  
• Turkey, Syria, Kurds, ISIS converge on a major military confrontation in al-Bab (26-Nov-2016)
  
  
• Turkey's 'Operation Euphrates Shield' turns into full-scale invasion of Syria (26-Aug-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Turkey, Free Syrian Army, FSA, Turkmens,
Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, Kurds, People's Protection Units, YPG,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Tabqa, Raqqa, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, Tayyip Recep Erdogan

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 4-May-17 World View -- Channeling Sisyphus, Trump and Abbas say Mideast peace not as hard as it looks

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Donald Trump and Mahmoud Abbas commit to work for historic Mideast peace deal
  
• Donald Trump and Mahmoud Abbas try again, channeling Sisyphus
  

****
**** Donald Trump and Mahmoud Abbas commit to work for historic Mideast peace deal
****


Mahmoud Abbas and Donald Trump shake hands at the White House on Wednesday (Getty)

Meeting in the White House on Wednesday, president Donald Trump met
with Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, and agreed to work
together to reach a historic peace deal between Israelis and
Palestinians.

In the briefing that followed the meeting, Trump recalled that Abbas
had participated in the development of the Oslo Peace Accords in 1994:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Almost 24 years ago, it was on these grounds that
> President Abbas stood with a courageous peacemaker, then-Israeli
> Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. Here at the White House, President
> Abbas signed a Declaration of Principles -- very important --
> which laid the foundation for peace between the Israelis and
> Palestinians.
>
> The President -- Mr. President, you [Abbas] signed your name to
> the first Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement. You remember that
> well, right? And I want to support you in being the Palestinian
> leader who signs his name to the final and most important peace
> agreement that brings safety, stability, and prosperity to both
> peoples and to the region."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Trump didn't mention what a disastrous failure the Oslo peace accords
have been. Another thing that Trump neglected to mention was that
year later, in 1995, Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated by an Israeli
nationalist who opposed the Oslo peace accords.

Trump's statement concluded:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"I welcome President Abbas here today as a
> demonstration of ... that very special partnership that we all
> need to make it all work. And I look forward to welcoming him
> back as a great marker of progress and, ultimately, toward the
> signing of a document with the Israelis and with Israel toward
> peace. We want to create peace between Israel and the
> Palestinians. We will get it done. We will be working so hard to
> get it done. It's been a long time, but we will be working
> diligently. And I think there's a very, very good chance, and I
> think you feel the same way."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Abbas then responded with his own statement:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Mr. President, we believe that we are capable and
> able to bring about success to our efforts because, Mr. President,
> you have the determination and you have the desire to see it
> become to fruition and to become successful. And we,
> Mr. President, inshallah, God willing, we are coming into a new
> opportunity, a new horizon that would enable us to bring about
> peace in that regard. ...
>
> Mr. President, it’s about time for Israel to end its occupation of
> our people and of our land after 50 years. We are the only
> remaining people in the world that still live under occupation.
> We are aspiring and want to achieve our freedom, our dignity, and
> our right to self-determination. And we also want for Israel to
> recognize the Palestinian state just as the Palestinian people
> recognize the state of Israel.
>
> Mr. President, I affirm to you that we are raising our youth, our
> children, our grandchildren on a culture of peace. And we are
> endeavoring to bring about security, freedom and peace for our
> children to live like the other children in the world, along with
> the Israeli children in peace, freedom and security.
>
> Mr. President, I bring with me today the message of the suffering
> of my people, as well as their aspiration and hope -- the hopes
> and aspirations of the Palestinian people from the Holy Land, from
> that land where the three monotheist religions thrived, and the
> Jewish faith, the Christian faith and the Muslim faith, where they
> all coexist together to foster it in an environment of security,
> peace and stability, and love for all."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Abbas said that "we are raising our youth, our children, our
grandchildren on a culture of peace," but the Palestinian president,
born in 1935, neglected to mention that polls indicate that two-thirds
of the Palestinian people want him to resign, and consider him
irrelevant and unable to do anything to help the Palestinians.

It's the young people today who will not tolerate a peace settlement
of any kind. Many young Israelis consider it to be an almost
Messianic mission to build settlements in the West Bank and to defend
them with their lives.

And the young Palestinians have been given the ironic name "Oslo
Generation," because they've grown up since the 1994 Oslo agreement
and have seen nothing come out of it, and so have no respect for Abbas
and other Palestinian leaders.

So even if Trump and Abbas and Israeli president Benjamin Netanyahu
did hammer out some kind of agreement, it would be worthless, because
the young Israelis and young Palestinians would not honor it.
NBC News and WAFA (Palestine) and White House

Related Articles

• Palestinian leader Abbas expected to deliver ultimatum to Israel at UN (28-Sep-2015)
  
  
• Mahmoud Abbas's United Nations 'bombshell' something of a dud (01-Oct-2015)
  

****
**** Donald Trump and Mahmoud Abbas try again, channeling Sisyphus
****

One of the most well-known characters in Greek Mythology was Sisyphus.
In his life he double-crossed Zeus, the king of the gods, as well as
the gods of the underworld. For his deceit and trickery, he was
condemned to eternal punishment. He would forever roll a massive
boulder up to the top of a steep hill, but whenever he neared the top,
the rock would roll down to the bottom, and he'd have to start over
again.

So anyway, former president Jimmy Carter once said in Jerusalem that
one of the deep regrets of his presidency was that he had not been
able to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There were numerous
repeated attempts at Mideast peace by Bill Clinton, George Bush and
Barack Obama.

I posted my very first Generational Dynamics analysis on May 1, 2003,
when president George Bush published his "Mideast Roadmap to Peace,"
which described the details of a two-state solution. I wrote that Generational Dynamics predicts that
the plan would fail because the Jews and the Arabs would be refighting
the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the
creation of the state of Israel. Here's what I wrote:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We are now in the early stages of replaying the
> extremely violent, bloody wars between the Jews and the
> Palestinians that took place between them from 1936 to 1949. So
> far the war has been little more than a series of skirmishes, as
> it was in the late 1930s. The full-fledged violent, bloody war is
> awaiting a generational change.
>
> There's an incredible irony going on in the Mideast today, in that
> the leaders of two opposing sides are, respectively, Ariel Sharon
> and Yassir Arafat.
>
> These two men hate each other, but they're the ones cooperating
> with each other (consciously or not) to prevent a major Mideast
> conflagration. Both of them remember the wars of the 1940s, and
> neither of them wants to see anything like that happen again. And
> it won't happen again, as long as both of these men are in charge.
>
> The disappearance of these two men will be part of an overall
> generational change in the Mideast that will lead to a major
> conflagration within a few years. It's possible that the
> disappearance of Arafat alone will trigger a war, just as the
> election of Lincoln ignited the American Civil War. (It's
> currently American policy to get rid of Arafat. My response is
> this: Be careful what you wish for.)"<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Since that time, Yassir Arafat died, and was replaced by Mahmoud
Abbas, who was also a survivor of the 1948 war and remembered its
horrors.

Since 2006, there have been five wars involving Israel and
Palestinians: the war between Israelis and Hezbollah, fought largely
on Lebanon's soil in 2006; the war between Palestinian factions Hamas
and Fatah in Gaza in 2008, that led to Hamas control of Gaza;
Operation Cast Lead, the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza early in
2009; the two wars between Israel and Hamas in Gaza in November, 2012
and July-August 2014.

In addition, the "Arab Spring" began in 2011, resulting in wars in
Libya, Yemen and Syria, and unrest in Egypt and Lebanon. Furthermore,
tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia have surged as a result of the
genocidal acts of Syria's Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad
directed at Sunnis. Each day we move closer to a war that will engulf
the whole region, between Arabs and Jews, between Sunnis and Shias,
and between various ethnic groups such as Kurds versus Turks.

With wars occurring today across the entire Mideast, can anyone
serious believe today that some piece of paper signed by Abbas, Trump
and Netanyahu would actually bring about a new Mideast where Israelis
and Palestinians are living together side by side in peace? If there
is, I'd like to give him a good deal on selling him the Brooklyn
Bridge. Jerusalem Post

Related Articles

• Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive (18-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Jewish extremists clash violently with Israeli soldiers over settlements (05-Jan-2005)
  
  
• Yasser Arafat dies (14-Nov-2004)
  
  
• How do unrealistically high expectations affect the world? (08-Jan-2005)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Benjamin Netayahu, Sisyphus,
Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, Oslo peace accords,
Yitzhak Rabin, Jimmy Carter, Yassir Arafat, Arab Spring

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 5-May-17 World View -- Italy prepares for possible Mediterranean refugee crisis this summer

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Italy prepares for possible Mediterranean refugee crisis this summer
  
• Europeans blame China and 'the freeway effect' for the migrant crisis
  

****
**** Italy prepares for possible Mediterranean refugee crisis this summer
****


Migrants packed into an overcrowded dinghy by human traffickers (EPA)

The European Union is working on an emergency plan in case a "serious
crisis" develops this summer, which would be the situation is 200,000
or more refugees cross the Mediterranean from Libya to Italy.

In 2016, a record 181,000 migrants crossed from North Africa to Italy
via the Mediterranean Sea. From January 1 to April 23 of this year,
36,851 migrants were recorded as crossing -- a 45% increase over the
same period last year. Even more concerning is the fact that summer
hasn't even arrived, and when it does, a huge surge of migrants is
expected. The concerns are that total for the year may be close to
300,000.

According to the Dublin Agreement that defines the principles of the
European Union, member states are expected to show "solidarity" in
managing the refugee problem, so that the entire burden doesn't fall
on Italy. However, there's little agreement on what the term
"solidarity" means. The current requirements are that refugees should
be distributed to all 28 member states. The target last year for
relocation was 160,000 asylum seekers, but because several member
states object to having any asylum seekers at all relocated to their
countries, only about 15,000 people have been distributed so far in
the last two years.

One proposed solution is that cash will be used to encourage countries
to meet their quotas. The proposal is that each country will be paid
&euro;60,000 for every asylum seeker they take in above their assigned
quota, and those not meeting their quotas would be charged the same
amount.

On Thursday, the European Commission issued a press release proposing
"a sustainable and fair Common European Asylum System." According to
Dimitris Avramopoulos, the EU Commissioner for Migration and Home
Affairs:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"If the current refugee crisis has shown one thing, it
> is that the status quo of our Common European Asylum System is not
> an option. The time has come for a reformed and more equitable
> system, based on common rules and a fairer sharing of
> responsibility. With the proposed reform of the Dublin system,
> [and the creation of a] true European Agency for Asylum, today we
> are taking a major step in the right direction and putting in
> place the European-level structures and tools necessary for a
> future-proof comprehensive system. We will now put all our efforts
> into working side-by-side with the European Parliament and Member
> States. We must turn these proposals into reality as swiftly as
> possible."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

If the history of the past two years shows anything, it's that no
current proposal has any chance of working. If move than 200,000
migrants from Libya reach the shores of Italy this year, it truly will
be a crisis. Der Spiegel and EU Observer (27-Mar) and European Commission and Malta Today

****
**** Europeans blame China and 'the freeway effect' for the migrant crisis
****

Decades ago, when America was first building a national highway
system, people talked about "the freeway effect." If some particular
auto route was always jammed with heavy traffic, then a limited access
superhighway (also called a "freeway") would be built to replace it.
However, with the availability of the new freeway, a lot more people
would start driving, and so pretty soon the traffic would be just as
bad as ever. That was "the freeway effect."

The same kind of thing is happening in the Mediterranean. After some
well-publicized drowning of hundreds of migrants in capsized boats,
the European Union has made enormous efforts rescue migrants who might
otherwise drown. Furthermore, the EU's Frontex organization has been
joined by dozens of NGOs (non-governmental organizations) that are
also rescuing migrants crossing the Mediterranean. As greater efforts
have been made, more migrants have been encouraged to risk making the
trip, contributing to the worsening of the migrant crisis, and
creating a "taxi service to Europe."

A scandal is brewing over the NGOs. Carmelo Zuccaro, an Italian
prosecutor is claiming to have evidence that some of the NGOs are
colluding with the human traffickers who send the migrants out on
flimsy boats to be rescued, with the suggestion that some of the NGOs
are encouraging the increase in migrant traffic in order to receive
more funding.

The human traffickers have become increasingly unscrupulous in taking
advantage of the massive rescue efforts. For example, they've been
packing up to 170 people onto inflatable rubber dinghies that can only
safely transport 15 people. The engines have only enough fuel to make
it out of Libyan waters, and the smugglers have been relying on the
rescue efforts by Frontex and the NGOs to save the migrants from
drowning. However, over 1,000 migrants have already lost their lives
this year alone in the Mediterranean.

Some EU officials are blaming China for the problem.

In a story about migrants
early
last year, I reported that human traffickers were importing massive
numbers of rubber dinghies manufactured in China, transshipped through
Malta.

Dimitris Avramopoulos, the EU Commissioner for Migration and Home
Affairs, whom we quoted earlier, is visiting China this week, and made
this statement:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The rubber boats used by the smuggler networks in the
> Mediterranean are fabricated somewhere in China, they are exported
> to the countries in Asia and they are used by them. So I
> requested the support and cooperation from the Chinese authorities
> in order to track down this business and dismantle it, because
> what they produce is not serving the common good of the
> country. It is a very dangerous tool in the hands of ruthless
> smugglers."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

There's no word on whether the Chinese government is going to help out
Europe by shutting down its rubber dinghy business. Reuters and New Arab (23-Apr) and Reuters

Related Articles

• EU migrant crisis moves to Italy as Austria begins closing border (13-Apr-2016)
  
  
• In a new catastrophe, hundreds of migrants drown in the Mediterranean Sea (19-Apr-2016)
  
  
• European Union nations in crisis agree on a migration plan for refugees (26-Oct-2015)
  
  
• 400 die as illegal migrants flood into Italy from Libya (15-Apr-2015)
  
  
• Europeans expect hundreds of thousands of migrants from Libya (30-Mar-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Italy, Libya, North Africa,
Dublin Agreement, Dimitris Avramopoulos, Carmelo Zuccaro, China

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Ragnarök_62]

Quote:This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Italy prepares for possible Mediterranean refugee crisis this summer
  
• Europeans blame China and 'the freeway effect' for the migrant crisis
  

****
**** Italy prepares for possible Mediterranean refugee crisis this summer
****


Migrants packed into an overcrowded dinghy by human traffickers (EPA)

The European Union is working on an emergency plan in case a "serious
crisis" develops this summer, which would be the situation is 200,000
or more refugees cross the Mediterranean from Libya to Italy.

John, this is so stupid.  Here's what sane folks would do.

1. Go ahead and pluck the rape-u-gees up and drop them off at the nearest port, which would be someplace in Libya.
2. NGO's - I suspect Soros here. I'd do what Russia did and outlaw Soros. He's evil, you know. I also know he has some really nice mansions around. If he cares so fucking much about rape-u-gees, let them go settle in George Soro's estates!   Soros is just plain evil. He needs to have his assets stripped. I'm sure some sort of terrorist link can be established , say with the Black Bloccers.
3. I support Trump when it comes to rape-u-gees. Just circle them to Libya. Problem will be solved. I just hate globalist idiots like Soros. May Poland, Hungary fuck him over. He needs his assets to be stripped.
4. The EU just needs to just go away. I hope La Pen wins in France. I mean anything, anything to destroy the EU is worthy at this point.

Quote:In 2016, a record 181,000 migrants crossed from North Africa to Italy
via the Mediterranean Sea.  From January 1 to April 23 of this year,
36,851 migrants were recorded as crossing -- a 45% increase over the
same period last year.  Even more concerning is the fact that summer
hasn't even arrived, and when it does, a huge surge of migrants is
expected.  The concerns are that total for the year may be close to
300,000.

Oh yeah. Send 'em all back to Libya. That will send a message , loud and clear that Europe does not want a bunch of moochers to arrive. Muslims will never, ever integrate into a proper European society.

Quote:According to the Dublin Agreement that defines the principles of the
European Union, member states are expected to show "solidarity" in
managing the refugee problem, so that the entire burden doesn't fall
on Italy.  However, there's little agreement on what the term
"solidarity" means.  The current requirements are that refugees should
be distributed to all 28 member states.  The target last year for
relocation was 160,000 asylum seekers, but because several member
states object to having any asylum seekers at all relocated to their
countries, only about 15,000 people have been distributed so far in
the last two years.

... Like I said, just send 'em back to Libya. Problem solved, OK?

Quote:One proposed solution is that cash will be used to encourage countries
to meet their quotas.  The proposal is that each country will be paid
&euro;60,000 for every asylum seeker they take in above their assigned
quota, and those not meeting their quotas would be charged the same
amount.

The EU has just shown itself as a bunch of fucking idiots. Send 'em back to N. Africa for god's sake.

Quote:On Thursday, the European Commission issued a press release proposing
"a sustainable and fair Common European Asylum System."  According to
Dimitris Avramopoulos, the EU Commissioner for Migration and Home
Affairs:

How about rescinding asylum?

Quote:>        [indent]<QUOTE>"If the current refugee crisis has shown one thing, it
>        is that the status quo of our Common European Asylum System is not
>        an option.  The time has come for a reformed and more equitable
>        system, based on common rules and a fairer sharing of
>        responsibility. With the proposed reform of the Dublin system,
>        [and the creation of a] true European Agency for Asylum, today we
>        are taking a major step in the right direction and putting in
>        place the European-level structures and tools necessary for a
>        future-proof comprehensive system. We will now put all our efforts
>        into working side-by-side with the European Parliament and Member
>        States. We must turn these proposals into reality as swiftly as
>        possible."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

If the history of the past two years shows anything, it's that no
current proposal has any chance of working.  If move than 200,000
migrants from Libya reach the shores of Italy this year, it truly will
be a crisis.  Der Spiegel and EU Observer (27-Mar) and European Commission and Malta Today

Bingo. Just ship 'em back. That's a rational solution. I don't want this trash in the US, that's for sure. I hope Europe will elect smart folks like La Pen. Actually,... I want the EU to crash and burn.  I hate Drunker and Merkel. I also hate the Davos crowd.  John, why can't we just get a nice avalanche when those Davos fuckwits get together? I want those 1%'ers to suffer a lot.

Quote: 
****
**** Europeans blame China and 'the freeway effect' for the migrant crisis
****

Decades ago, when America was first building a national highway
system, people talked about "the freeway effect."  If some particular
auto route was always jammed with heavy traffic, then a limited access
superhighway (also called a "freeway") would be built to replace it.
However, with the availability of the new freeway, a lot more people
would start driving, and so pretty soon the traffic would be just as
bad as ever.  That was "the freeway effect."

Quote:The same kind of thing is happening in the Mediterranean.  After some
well-publicized drowning of hundreds of migrants in capsized boats,
the European Union has made enormous efforts rescue migrants who might
otherwise drown.  Furthermore, the EU's Frontex organization has been
joined by dozens of NGOs (non-governmental organizations) that are
also rescuing migrants crossing the Mediterranean.

Yeah, I know, you're right.  I'd just focus on NGO boats and torpedo those. No rescues, like you said, the freeway effect. Just don't do it. I know Soros has a lot of his boats there.  Why can't the CIA just take him out, since he's the focus of all evil in the universe? After a while, the "migrants" will get the message, "you're on your own, you will most likely die."

Quote:As greater efforts
have been made, more migrants have been encouraged to risk making the
trip, contributing to the worsening of the migrant crisis, and
creating a "taxi service to Europe."

A scandal is brewing over the NGOs.  Carmelo Zuccaro, an Italian
prosecutor is claiming to have evidence that some of the NGOs are
colluding with the human traffickers who send the migrants out on
flimsy boats to be rescued, with the suggestion that some of the NGOs
are encouraging the increase in migrant traffic in order to receive
more funding.

The human traffickers have become increasingly unscrupulous in taking
advantage of the massive rescue efforts.  For example, they've been
packing up to 170 people onto inflatable rubber dinghies that can only
safely transport 15 people.  The engines have only enough fuel to make
it out of Libyan waters, and the smugglers have been relying on the
rescue efforts by Frontex and the NGOs to save the migrants from
drowning.  However, over 1,000 migrants have already lost their lives
this year alone in the Mediterranean.

Some EU officials are blaming China for the problem.

China's not the problem. Europe is the problem! Just let 'em all drown. After a while, the message will get through.
Attempt to mooch off of Europe, the odds are, you will DIE. I can live myself here. I don't want a bunch of riff-raff coming to the US. I would think that Europe, after suffering a crime wave from this riff raff would get the message.
Sorry, 1000 riff raff deaths ain't enough.  Perhaps 100,000 will get the message through.  I don't want this trash coming to the US, that's for sure. Trump is correct here. Send 'em back.

Quote:In a story about migrants
early
last year, I reported that human traffickers were importing massive
numbers of rubber dinghies manufactured in China, transshipped through
Malta.

Dimitris Avramopoulos, the EU Commissioner for Migration and Home
Affairs, whom we quoted earlier, is visiting China this week, and made
this statement:

>        [indent]<QUOTE>"The rubber boats used by the smuggler networks in the
>        Mediterranean are fabricated somewhere in China, they are exported
>        to the countries in Asia and they are used by them.  So I
>        requested the support and cooperation from the Chinese authorities
>        in order to track down this business and dismantle it, because
>        what they produce is not serving the common good of the
>        country. It is a very dangerous tool in the hands of ruthless
>        smugglers."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

There's no word on whether the Chinese government is going to help out
Europe by shutting down its rubber dinghy business.  Reuters and New Arab (23-Apr) and Reuters

:: Whatever:: I don't give a rat's ass about rape-u-gees.  Let 'em all drown and after a while, this shit storm will stop.
If that's what's required to shut down smuggling, so be it! I also would not mind drone strikes againt smugglers.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 6-May-17 World View -- Kashmir violence surges as India launches massive house-to-house sweep

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kashmir violence surges as India launches massive house-to-house sweep
  
• Narendra Modi's 'demonetization' program results in more Kashmir bank robberies
  

****
**** Kashmir violence surges as India launches massive house-to-house sweep
****


Rock-throwing youths clash with police in Kashmir (Hindustan Times)

The conflict between Indian security forces and Kashmiris took another
leap higher this week as a force of 3,000 men from security forces
began a massive counter-militant operation, the largest seen in
decades. Soldiers, paramilitary troopers and policemen started cordon
operations and house-to-house searches in 20 villages in and around
the restive Shopian district in southern Kashmir, beginning on
Thursday.

The operation follows a terrorist attack in Shopian on Tuesday, when
militants attacked a police station and took off with five service
rifles. On Wednesday, there were two armed bank robberies in the
region, where militants took off with thousands of dollars. After the
counter-militant operation began on Thursday, clashes erupted between
Kashmiri youth pelting stones at security forces.

According to one senior police officer, "It is impossible to capture
the militants, but we hope there will be contact [exchange of fire]
with them in the course of the day."

Clashes between Kashmiris and security forces increased significantly
after July 8 of last year, when Burhan Wani, the leader of the Kashmir
separatist group Hizbul Mujahideen, was killed by Indian police fire.
Security forces responded harshly to the violence by using pellet
guns, with the result that 1,000 people lost their vision in one eye
and five were blinded. Thousands of Kashmiri youths were arrested.

The big surge in violence finally subsided in November, and Indian
officials decided that their harsh reprisals had been successful in
subduing the violence. However, it now appears that what was subduing
the violence was the cold weather, and now that the weather is warming
again, the violence is increasing significantly.

As I've written several times,

from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kashmir is replaying
previous generations of violence according to a fairly standard
template. India's previous two generational crisis wars were India's
1857 Rebellion, which pitted Hindu nationalists against British
colonists, and the 1947 Partition War, one of the bloodiest wars of
the 20th century, pitting Hindus versus Muslims, following the
partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into India and Pakistan.

Now, as the survivors of the 1947 Partition War have almost all died
off, leaving behind younger generations with no fear of repeating past
disasters, Kashmir is repeating the violence of 1857 and 1947.

As the weather has warmed in the last few weeks, the violence has been
increasing. Generational Dynamics predicts that Kashmir is returning
to full-scale war, re-fighting the extremely bloody partition war of
1947. Exactly when this full-scale war will occur cannot be
predicted, but there are still several long, hot months of summer this
year, and there is no hope that the clashes will subside until,
perhaps, when winter arrives again.

Many people are comparing the current Kashmir violence with
temporary violence that occurred in the 1990s. But there are
significant differences between today's violence and the 1990s
violence.

In the 1990s, there were still plenty of survivors of the bloody
1947 partition war, and these people would have held their children
back, saying that it's better to suffer a little discrimination
than to get killed.

Today, in a generational Crisis era, young people seem to
have no fear of being killed. This represents a significant
change of mood. Even more alarming, for the first time,
young girls are joining the boys in throwing stones. This change
in mood is a significant difference from the 1990s.

Another difference is that today, local Kashmiri militants are
collaborating with militants from Pakistan terror groups, including
Hizbul Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Toiba. The foreign terrorist supply
weapons and get advance information about topography, routes, movement
of Indian troops. This makes the separatist militants far more
dangerous than they were 20 years ago. BBC and Hindustan Times and Geo TV (Pakistan)

Related Articles

• Kashmiri students at two Indian colleges harassed and beaten (22-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Worries grow that India is 'losing Kashmir,' as violence increases (18-Apr-2017)
  
  
• India-Pakistan clash threatened as Kashmir violence surges again (01-Apr-2017)
  
  
• The debate in Pakistan: Good terrorists vs Bad terrorists (09-Aug-2016)
  

****
**** Narendra Modi's 'demonetization' program results in more Kashmir bank robberies
****

As we described above, India's massive counter-militant operation
began just after militant attacks on a police stations and two armed
bank robberies. During the past seven months, there have been 13
incidents of bank robbery, with militants looting hundreds of
thousands of dollars.

The number of bank robberies has gone up started increasing
dramatically in November of last year, and many analysts relate the
increase to the 'demonetization' program announced by India's prime minister Narendra Modi
at that
time. The policy declared high value 500-1000 rupee notes to be
worthless, with the stated objective of reducing corruption. However,
the policy was something of a disaster, since many people had no valid
cash to purchase necessities like food.

Shortly after the 'demonetization' policy went into effect, India's
defense minister Manohar Parrikar bragged that the demonetization
program has substantially reduced the amount of violence in Kashmir,
by reducing incidents of stone-pelting. According to Parrikar:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"Earlier, there were rates: Rs 500 for stone pelting
> [on security forces in Kashmir] and Rs 1,000 for doing something
> else. PM has brought terror funding to zero. In the last few days
> after PM's daring move there hasn't been stone pelting on security
> forces. I congratulate PM for it."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

It's believed that separatist activists were paying stone-pelters in
counterfeit notes that had been printed in Pakistan. By making all
500-1000 rupee notes worthless, the counterfeit notes also became
worthless.

Parrikar is correct that the number of stone-throwing incidents
fell at that time but, as we stated above, the reduction in violence
was actually caused by the cold winter weather, and now that the
weather is warming again, stone-throwing incidents are recurring.

However, another outcome of the demonetization program seems more
certain, following the "Law of Unintended Consequences." With the
counterfeit 500-1000 Rs notes worthless, militants needed to get cash
from another source, and that other source has apparently turned out
to be bank robbery. India Today and Rising Kashmir and Kashmir Reader

Related Articles

• India says that Modi's 'demonetization' program reduced Kashmir violence (03-Dec-2016)
  
  
• India's prime minister Narendra Modi declares 500-1000 rupee notes worthless (12-Nov-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, India, Kashmir, Shopian, Pakistan,
Hizbul Mujahideen, Burhan Wani, Lashkar-e-Toiba,
Narendra Modi, demonetization, Manohar Parrikar

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 7-May-17 World View -- European officials worry that Macedonia's chaos could destabilize the Balkans

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• European officials worry that Macedonia's chaos could destabilize the Balkans
  
• Macedonia comments reveal acrimonious divisions in the Western Balkans
  

****
**** European officials worry that Macedonia's chaos could destabilize the Balkans
****


Protesters in front of parliament in Skopje, Macedonia, on Tuesday (Reuters)

Two weeks ago, thousands of ethnic nationalist Macedonians surrounded
Macedonia's parliament building in the capital city Skopje, and then
stormed the building, as we reported at the time.
More than 100 people were injured, including
protestors, policemen and lawmakers.

The protests have been continuing, although there's been no further
violence, but there are concerns of more violence when a political
deadline passes in ten days.

The protests were triggered when an ethnic Albanian, Talat Xhaferi,
was elected Speaker of the Parliament. Xhaferi was also a leader of
the Albanian anti-government rebellion in a brief Albanian-Macedonian
non-crisis civil war in 2001, raising new fears about a renewal of the
civil war.

Macedonia's politics became chaotic after December 11 of last year,
when an election was held giving the two major parties, the SDSM
(Social Democrats), led by Zoran Zaev, and the VMRO-DPMNE, led by
Nikola Gruevski, an almost equal number of seats in the parliament.

The SDSM party broke the deadlock by forming a coalition with several
Albanian parties, thus giving themselves a parliamentary majority,
controlling at least 67 of the 120 seats in parliament. However, the
VMRO party under Prime Minister Gruevski have been governing the
country for more than a decade, and were reluctant to give up power.
The situation was further complicated by the fact that if Gruevski
loses power, then he's liable to go to jail over accusations of
mass-wiretapping of opposition politicians. Two years ago, a
wiretapping scandal revealed that the government had tapped the phones
of over 26,000 people, including politicians, journalists, and civil
society activists.

Since December the government has been in chaos, since the
pro-Macedonian president, Gjorge Ivanov, refused to recognize the SDSM
government, and allow Zaev to become prime minister. He claimed that
doing so would "Albanianize" Macedonia by allowing wider official use
of the Albanian language, which was a demand of the Albanian parties
in return for joining the SDSM coalition.

So two weeks ago, the SDSM and Albanian coalition in the parliament
selected ethnic Albanian Talat Xhaferi as speaker of the parliament.
This selection infuriated Ivanov and the nationalist Macedonian
supporters of the VMRO party, triggering the bloody riots. The
protests have been continuing since then, with thousands of VMRO
supporters turning out in Skopje on Tuesday, although there has been
no more violence.

On Thursday, Xhaferi sent a letter to Ivanov, noting that a
"parliament majority has been established" and that he expects the
president to act according to the constitution, and give control of
the government to the SDSM, and allow Zoran Zaev to become prime
minister, putting an end to more than a decade in power for the VMRO.

Ivanov nas not yet confirmed that he received the letter. He has ten
days to respond to the letter. No matter what action or inaction he
takes on that day, there may be more violence. Balkan Insight and European Council On Foreign Relations and BBC

Related Articles

• Protesters storm Macedonia's parliament fearing calls for 'Greater Albania' (29-Apr-2017)
  

****
**** Macedonia comments reveal acrimonious divisions in the Western Balkans
****

The article on Macedonia that I wrote two weeks ago was cross-posted
as usual on the Breitbart National Security site, and received dozens of the
most acrimonious and vitriolic comments that any of my articles have
ever received. These comments came from all sides -- especially the
Macedonians, the Greeks, the Albanians and the Bulgarians.

Greek commenters were particularly infuriated by my brief history of
Alexander the Great, referring to him as "the most famous leader in
Macedonia's history." Here's a brief summary of the comments by Greek
readers:

• Alexander the Great was Greek, and in fact all Macedonians at
  the time were Greek.
  
• Macedonians don't exist any more. The country was taken over by
  Albanians, and colonized by ethnic Bulgarians in the Middle Ages.
  Today's "Macedonians" are really ethnic Bulgarians, with no ties to
  ancient Macedonia.
  
• Macedonia is a fake country. It should be split up, with the west
  given to Albania and the east to Bulgaria.

Macedonians reject all of this:

• There are Russian and Turkish documents from the 1700s clearly
  referring to Macedonian as distinct from Serbians or Bulgarians. The
  oldest surviving identity in Europe is Macedonian.
  
• Macedonians don't want to be part of Bulgaria, and the Bulgarians
  don't want the Macedonians, because they are Macedonians.

There's an interesting question here: How long do two population
groups have to be separated before they can be called separate ethnic
groups? It may (or may not) be true that Macedonians were Bulgarians
in the Middle Ages, but that was many centuries ago. Having been
apart from the Bulgarians for centuries, today they're recognized as a
distinct Macedonian ethnic group by almost every nation outside of
Greece, and they're recognized by the United Nations and European
Union as Macedonians.

As for Alexander the Great, today's Macedonians and Greeks each claim
him as their own. This is an issue that will probably never be
settled peacefully.

A number of Albanian commenters criticized my use of the phrase
"Greater Albania," a movement to enlarge Albania by including ethnic
Albanian populations from neighboring countries, including Macedonia
and Kosovo. Some claimed that no such movement exists, although that
claim appears not to be true, as can be determined by googling the
words "Greater Albania." However, other comments gave a more nuanced
explanation, that the phrase "Greater Albania" was invented by the
Serbs and the Russians to cover up a movement for a "Greater Serbia."

One commenter said, "We Albanian Muslims live in peace with Christian
Albanians. It's only the Serbs and Macedonians who we cannot live in
peace with us due to historical territorial claims."

There is some truth to the claim of meddling by the Russians. The
Russian government is backing the VMRO and Nikola Gruevski, and
Russia's foreign ministry issued a statement in March:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"With active cooperation of the EU and NATO officials,
> an 'Albanian platform' created in Tirana [Albania's capital city],
> in the office of the (Albanian) prime minister, is being imposed
> on Macedonians."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

My article on Macedonia
is turning
out to be one of the most acrimoniously contentious that I've ever
written, with extreme ideologues on both sides posting vitriolic
comments. My conclusion from this situation is that history is
repeating itself in the sense that the Balkans region is one of the
most explosive regions in the world.

The Albanians and Turks are mostly Muslim. The Macedonians,
Bulgarians, Serbs, Greeks and Russians are all mostly Orthodox
Christian. The Muslim and Orthodox Christian civilizations have had
repeated massive wars for centuries, centered in the Balkans, Crimea,
and the Caucasus. And as I've been saying for years, Generational
Dynamics predicts that there's going to be another massive
civilizational war between Muslims and Orthodox Christians.

The conflict between ethnic Macedonians and ethnic Albanians, with
outside "meddling" from Russia, Serbia, Greece, Albania, and the EU,
is a microcosm of this coming massive civilizational war, which is why
this is an important story. And there have been reports of increasing
use of social media in the Balkans to promote neo-Nazism and white
supremacy.

There has been speculation by me and others about where WW III would
start -- South China Sea, Kashmir, Mideast, etc. But now I would have
to say that the Balkans is moving close to the top of the list.
EurActiv and Reuters (2-Mar) and Balkan Insight

Related Articles

[*] Macedonia declares state of emergency along border with Greece (22-Aug-2015)

[*] A train station in Macedonia becomes the new European migrant choke point (19-Aug-2015)

[*] 22 die in Macedonian police gun battles with Albanian militants (11-May-2015)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Macedonia, Albania, Greece,
Talat Xhaferi, Social Democrats, SDSM, Zoran Zaev,
VMRO-DPMNE, Nikola Gruevski, Gjorge Ivanov, Bulgaria,
The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, FYROM,
Alexander the Great, Russia, Turkey, Serbia,
Greater Albania, Greater Serbia

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 8-May-17 World View -- Ancient tensions flare between China and North Korea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ancient tensions flare between China and North Korea
  
• China's relations deteriorate with both South and North Korea
  

****
**** Ancient tensions flare between China and North Korea
****


North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un (KCNA/AFP)

As two ancient civilizations and neighbors, China and Korea have had
many disagreements over the centuries, and tensions and wars have been
the norm. However, during the last century, they've been united by
their common enmity to Japan before World War II, and to the United
States after World War II.

Now as both countries go deeper into a generational Crisis era, like
most countries today, they're both becoming increasingly nationalistic
and xenophobic. They both frequently continue to express their hatred
of Japan and the United States, but increasingly this nationalism is
causing them to turn on each other.

China has numerous concerns about North Korea, including these:

• A nuclear explosion or nuclear accident near China's border,
  similar to the accident at Ukraine's Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in
  1986, could send massive amounts of radiation into China's
  northeast.
  
  
• A collapse in North Korea's government could send hundreds of
  thousands of North Korean refugees across the Yalu River border
  with China into northeast China.
  
  
• Even a conventional war between North and South Korea would
  put at risk over a million Chinese living in South Korea, including
  over 100,000 living Seoul, as well as thousands more living
  in North Korea.

Tensions between the two countries have been growing almost
continually since 2006, when DPRK (North Korea, the "Democratic
People's Republic of Korea") conducted its first nuclear bomb test.
At that time, Chinese state media said that "China resolutely opposes
DPRK's nuclear test," and quoted China's Foreign Ministry as saying:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The DPRK ignored universal opposition of the
> international community and flagrantly conducted the nuclear test
> on Oct. 9. The Chinese government is resolutely opposed to
> it."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

China's Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing talked over telephone with
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and they agreed that North
Korea's nuclear tests must be firmly opposed. The United Nations
Security Council held an emergency session to opposed the DPRK nuclear
test.

Since then, countries around the world have strongly and vehemently
opposed North Korea's nuclear program. This has included China, which
has applied economic sanctions to North Korea, most recently
restricting coal imports from North Korea.

North Korea's leaders say that they fear an invasion by the United
States, and they're known to believe that the only protection they
have against such an invasion is the development of nuclear weapons.
They believe that the West would not have invaded either Libya or Iraq
if these countries hadn't given up their nuclear weapons development.

On Wednesday, North Korean state media KCNA published a scathing
attack on China:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"A string of absurd and reckless remarks are now heard
> from big neighboring countries, perhaps frightened at the
> U.S. blackmail and war racket, every day only to render the acute
> situation of the Korean peninsula more strained.
>
> The People's Daily and the Global Times, widely known as media
> speaking for the official stand of the Chinese party and
> government, have recently carried commentaries asserting that the
> DPRK's access to nukes poses a threat to the national interests of
> China. They shifted the blame for the deteriorated relations
> between the DPRK and China onto the DPRK and raised lame excuses
> for the base acts of dancing to the tune of the U.S.
>
> Those commentaries claimed that the DPRK poses a threat to "the
> security in the northeastern region of China" by conducting
> nuclear tests less than 100 km away from its border with
> China. They even talked rubbish that the DPRK strains the
> situation in Northeast Asia and "offers the U.S. excuses for
> deploying more strategic assets" in the region.
>
> Not content with such paradox, the commentaries asserted that to
> remain averse to the DPRK's access to nukes is to preserve
> interests common to the U.S. and China, calling for slapping
> harsher sanctions against the DPRK in order to avert a war which
> would bring danger to China. ...
>
> This is just a wanton violation of the independent and legitimate
> rights, dignity and supreme interests of the DPRK and,
> furthermore, constitutes an undisguised threat to an honest-minded
> neighboring country which has a long history and tradition of
> friendship. ...
>
> Some theorists of China are spouting a load of nonsense that the
> DPRK's access to nukes strains the situation in Northeast Asia and
> offers the U.S. an excuse for beefing up its strategic assets in
> the region. But the U.S. had activated its strategy for dominating
> Asia-Pacific long before the DPRK had access to nukes, and its
> primary target is just China.
>
> China should acknowledge in an honest manner that the DPRK has
> just contributed to protecting peace and security of China,
> foiling the U.S. scheme for aggression by waging a hard fight in
> the frontline of the showdown with the U.S. for more than seven
> decades, and thank the DPRK for it. ...
>
> One must clearly understand that the DPRK's line of access to
> nukes for the existence and development of the country can neither
> be changed nor shaken and that the DPRK will never beg for the
> maintenance of friendship with China, risking its nuclear program
> which is as precious as its own life, no matter how valuable the
> friendship is. ...
>
> China had better ponder over the grave consequences to be entailed
> by its reckless act of chopping down the pillar of the DPRK-China
> relations."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

China's state media responded directly:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The KCNA opinion piece contains no new substantive
> information, except mentioning the names of China, People's Daily,
> and Global Times and expressing a stronger disgruntling. It did
> not mention China's support for the United Nations sanctions
> against North Korea. Nor did it state Pyongyang's next step to
> take. Overall, the editorial is nothing more than a
> hyper-aggressive piece completely filled with nationalistic
> passion.
>
> Pyongyang obviously is grappling with some form of irrational
> logic over its nuclear program. ...
>
> Beijing needs to make China’s standing and position very clear to
> Pyongyang, either on an official or grassroots level. It needs to
> address with Pyongyang its concerns and bottom line. It should
> also make Pyongyang aware that it will react in unprecedented
> fashion if Pyongyang conducts another nuclear test. Beijing should
> not hesitate in delivering this message, and there is certainly no
> need to debate this issue back and forth with
> Pyongyang."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Probably the most important sentence is: "[Beijing] should also make
Pyongyang aware that it will react in unprecedented fashion if
Pyongyang conducts another nuclear test."

So we have the following situation:

• North Korea considers its nuclear development program an
  existential requirement for its survival.
  
• China says that it will "react in unprecedented fashion" in case
  of another nuclear test, whatever that means.
  
• President Donald Trump says that the US will stop North Korea if
  China doesn't, whatever that means.
  
  
• If nothing is done, then North Korea will have the ability within
  two or three years to deliver a nuclear bomb to South Korea, China,
  Japan or the United States.

The Diplomat and Xinhua (9-Oct-2006) and Rodong Sinmun (North Korea) and Global Times (Beijing) and Times of India

Related Articles

• North Korean missile strikes sea close to Japan, threatening radar base (04-Aug-2016)
  
  
• China-North Korea tensions high after nuclear test (09-Jan-2016)
  
  
• U.N. promises 'response' to North Korea firing midrange missiles (30-Mar-2014)
  

****
**** China's relations deteriorate with both South and North Korea
****

China's relations with North Korea have been deteriorating steadily
with North Korea for over a decade, but China's relations with
South Korea have crashed almost overnight.

Just two years ago, there was a "brand new honeymoon" in relations
between China and South Korea. President Park Geun-hye visited
Beijing on September 3, 2015, during the commemoration of the 70th
anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance
against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War. Park
was treated like visiting royalty, and even had a private lunch
with China's president Xi Jinping.

Then, in July 2016, Park announced her decision to deploy the THAAD
(Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) system on South Korean soil.
This was specifically a reaction to ballistic missile and nuclear
threats from North Korea, but it infuriated China because THAAD's
powerful radar could also give early warning to the United States of a
pre-emptive missile attack by China on the United States.

On February 28 of this year, news broke that the Lotte Group, a South
Korean multinational conglomerate, had agreed to a land swap that
would allow THAAD to be deployed on a piece of land previously owned
by the company. This enraged the Chinese, who furiously started
imposing economic sanctions on South Korea, particularly targeting
Lotte Department Stores in China and South Korea with a boycott.

So now China is imposing economic boycotts on both North and South
Korea, for different but related reasons. There's another irony to
the situation: Even though China has an economic boycott on South
Korean products, China is increasing its imports of petroleum products
from South Korea, with an increase of 2.6% over the previous year.
The reason is because there's a supply shortage of energy products in
China, exacerbated by the fact that China is no longer importing coal
from North Korea.

These issues are all very recent, but there are also deeply historical
issues separating China and Korea. Since 2003, China has been
developing a "Northeastern History Project" with the intention of
proving that regions that have historically been recognized as
belonging to Korea's history and culture, on China's northeastern
border with Korea, are really all Chinese. In other words, just as
China is confiscating regions historically belonging to Vietnam,
Brunei and the Philippines in the South China Sea, China is also
planning to confiscate regions historically belonging to Korea.

So there may be ephemeral ups and downs in the relations between
China and each of the two Koreas, but these two civilizations have
been around for millennia, and the norm is very tense relations,
usually leading to war.

Deng Xiaoping, China's leader in the 1980s, said, "Observe calmly;
secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and
bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim
leadership."

This has been China's strategy to implement the "China dream." As
I've been describing for years, China has been using a "salami-slicing
strategy" of using military force to annex one portion after another
of regions of the South China Sea historically belonging to Vietnam,
Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. By doing so
gradually, China's hopes to prevent any counter-action. At the same
time, China has been vastly building up its military, on land, in
space and on the sea, but then pretending that they're a tiny power
compared to the United States. In this way, they follow Deng's
advice, hoping to surprise the world with their military strength in
the same way that Adolf Hitler surprised Britain.

Unfortunately, China keeps getting bitten by mosquitoes that send it
off-course. China was enormously humiliated by the dramatic 2016
ruling by the United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at
The Hague declaring China's claims and activities in the South China
Sea to be illegal. This hasn't stopped China, of course, but
it's exposed to the world the danger in allowing China's
salami-slicing strategy to continue.

Another mosquito is North Korea, which has put China's entire foreign
policy into a tailspin. Instead of being able to blame all the
world's problems on the United States, while it continues its vast
military buildup in obscurity, China has to cope with the fact that
North Korea is more a danger to China than it is to the United States.
Even worse, the North Korean situation is directly responsible for the
THAAD deployment in South Korea, which could never have occurred
otherwise.

The fact is that China making enemies of one country after another.
China has a few allies, such as Cambodia, Pakistan, Myanmar, and
others, but China is surrounded by historic enemies, including Japan,
Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, India, Russia, and many others. When
China finally decides that it's time to declare war on the United
States, they will not be fighting the United States alone. The Diplomat and Yonhap News (Seoul) and SinoNK (3-Mar-2012) and The Atlantic (15-Apr-2013) and Council on Foreign Relations

Related Articles

• China, Russia, Syria: The 'Salami Slicing Strategy' (19-Feb-2015)
  
  
• China's military strength and poor civilian control alarm neighbors (24-Nov-2014)
  
  
• Vietnam, Philippines unite to confront China in South China Sea (26-Mar-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, North Korea, South Korea,
DPRK, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, KCNA,
Li Zhaoxing, Condoleezza Rice, Libya, Iraq, Yalu River,
Park Geun-hye, Xi Jinping, Northeastern History Project,
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD, Lotte Group,
War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War,
Deng Xiaoping, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan, Philippines,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

John X, what a sorry figure you've been reduced to, basically repeating assertions originally made by the epoch times which like debkafile are both essentially an intelligence community equivalent of tabloids. Also regarding Chinese strategy China hasn't been hiding its strength, if anything they have tended to be brandishing their swords, not hiding them.

North Korea will likely be invaded and disestablished soon to destroy their WMD and Missile programs, either by the US or China or Both. Boomer globalists in the US will fail in their efforts to force Trump to continue the Korean armistice and the Nuclear doctrine outlined in PDD-60 (which will likely be repealed soon).

[John J. Xenakis]

(05-07-2017, 10:41 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > John X, what a sorry figure you've been reduced to, basically
> repeating assertions originally made by the epoch times which like
> debkafile are both essentially an intelligence community
> equivalent of tabloids. Also regarding Chinese strategy China
> hasn't been hiding its strength, if anything they have tended to
> be brandishing their swords, not hiding them.

> North Korea will likely be invaded and disestablished soon to
> destroy their WMD and Missile programs, either by the US or China
> or Both. Boomer globalists in the US will fail in their efforts to
> force Trump to continue the Korean armistice and the Nuclear
> doctrine outlined in PDD-60 (which will likely be repealed soon).
>

You have no grasp of the ironies of history.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(05-08-2017, 07:25 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(05-07-2017, 10:41 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   John X, what a sorry figure you've been reduced to, basically
>   repeating assertions originally made by the epoch times which like
>   debkafile are both essentially an intelligence community
>   equivalent of tabloids. Also regarding Chinese strategy China
>   hasn't been hiding its strength, if anything they have tended to
>   be brandishing their swords, not hiding them.

>   North Korea will likely be invaded and disestablished soon to
>   destroy their WMD and Missile programs, either by the US or China
>   or Both. Boomer globalists in the US will fail in their efforts to
>   force Trump to continue the Korean armistice and the Nuclear
>   doctrine outlined in PDD-60 (which will likely be repealed soon).
>  

You have no grasp of the ironies of history.

You have yet to state credible arguments for the following points:

1.) That chinese strategic thinking is based on hiding their military capabilities. When in fact they have tended to brandish and proclaim their capabilities and advances in military tech.

2.) That either Debkafile or the Epoch Times are reliable sources of information regarding the world strategic scene. In fact those two sites along with worldnetdaily are generally regarded as the military-intelligence community equivalent of tabloid news.

3.) That a US invasion of North Korea to destroy their missile program either carried on our own (with south korea assisting) or in coordination with a Chinese invasion from the North; would be a bad thing for world peace.

4.) That Trump implementing his campaign promises regarding military/diplomatic/strategic policy including a likely repeal of PDD-60 (which states that the US would not launch a nuclear first strike and only counterattack after an enemy first strike); would be a bad thing for world peace.

[Warren Dew]

(05-08-2017, 08:02 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: 3.) That a US invasion of North Korea to destroy their missile program either carried on our own (with south korea assisting) or in coordination with a Chinese invasion from the North; would be a bad thing for world peace.

Out of curiosity, why would we need to invade?  Air power alone can't win wars, but it can wreak destruction if what we need is less than a war.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 9-May-17 World View -- Russia, Iran and Turkey announce farcical new Syria peace plan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia, Iran and Turkey announce farcical new Syria peace plan
  
• Syria refuses to permit foreign monitors
  

****
**** Russia, Iran and Turkey announce farcical new Syria peace plan
****


Two girls walk past destroyed buildings in Douma, Syria, part of a planned 'safe zone' (AFP)

Every few months, Russia or the United Nations announces a new peace
plan to end the war in Syria. Each time, the mainstream media
credulously reports that there's finally "hope" that the war will end.
Each time, I always use the word "farcical" to describe the peace
plan, because the plan never even makes sense. And each time, the
plan falls apart within a few weeks.

In January, just a mere four months ago, I described
the peace plan being signed at that time as
follows:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"What's wrong with this picture: There's a civil war
> in Syria between the Shia/Alawites versus the Sunnis. On Tuesday,
> Russia, Iran and Turkey signed a peace agreement.
>
> The thing that's wrong with this picture is that nobody from Syria
> signed the agreement. It was an agreement among outsiders, and
> did not include any parties who are nominally the opponents in
> Syria's civil war.
>
> The peace talks were held in Astana, the capital city of
> Kazakhstan. Syrian civil war peace talks in the past were held in
> Geneva, so having these talks in Astana gives that "this time it's
> different" feeling to the meeting. ...
>
> However the main reason, according to analysts, that this time
> it's different is that Russia is making it clear that it's willing
> to enforce a peace in Syria, so that it will get the credit for
> bringing about peace."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

Exactly the same description applies to the peace agreement signed on
Friday. The meetings were being held again in Astana, and the same
three (non-Syrian) parties signed the agreement, while the parties
that are fighting on the ground did not sign it.

In this peace agreement, there will be four "safe zones" or
"de-escalation areas." The safe zones will be surrounded by "security
zones," which will be patrolled to ensure the peace.

Here are some excerpts from the text of the agreement:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"The Islamic Republic of Iran, the Russian Federation
> and the Republic of Turkey as guarantors of the observance of the
> ceasefire regime in the Syrian Arab Republic (hereinafter referred
> to as “Guarantors”): ... have agreed on the following.
>
> 1.the following de-escalation areas shall be created with the aim
> to put a prompt end to violence, improve the humanitarian
> situation and create favorable conditions to advance political
> settlement of the conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic: [listing
> areas in Idlib, Homs, Ghouta, southern Syria]. ...
>
> The creation of the de-escalation areas and security zones is a
> temporary measure, the duration of which will initially be 6
> months and will be automatically extended on the basis of
> consensus of the Guarantors.
>
> 2.Within the lines of the de-escalation areas:
>
> —hostilities between the conflicting parties (the government of
> the Syrian Arab Republic and the armed opposition groups that have
> joined and will join the ceasefire regime) with the use of any
> kinds of weapons, including aerial assets, shall be ceased; ...
>
> The functioning of the checkpoints and observation posts as well
> as the administration of the security zones shall be ensured by
> the forces of the Guarantors by consensus. Third parties might be
> deployed, if necessary, by consensus of the
> Guarantors. ...<END QUOTE>[/indent]

As usual, this is laughable. The Syrian regime and the armed rebels
have not signed on to this agreement, but hostilities between them
"with the use of any kinds of weapons, including aerial assets, shall
be ceased." You've got to be joking.

In fact, as in the case of every other "peace agreement," there is no
intention that the fighting stop. The Syrian regime of Bashar
al-Assad reserves the right to continue bombing any places that
contain people they consider to be terrorists, and that includes
schools, hospitals and marketplaces, using barrel bombs or any other
kind of bomb. The opposition rebel groups have also reserved the
right to fight the regime in case of what they view is any regime
violation of the agreement. And of course the al-Qaeda linked
al-Nusra Front, and so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) are not included in the deal in any way.

According to US Defense Secretary James Mattis:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"It's all in process right now. Who is going to be
> ensuring they're safe? Who is signing up for it? Who is
> specifically to be kept out of them? All these details are to be
> worked out, and we're engaged."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

According to the text of the agreement, the maps of the four safe
zones have not yet been drawn up, and won't be drawn up until June.
Gulf News and The Hill and Arab News

Related Articles

• Russia, Iran, Turkey sign farcical Syria peace agreement (25-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Turkey plans assault on Syria's Kurds, as US-Russia announce another peace deal (10-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Farcical Syria peace process 'proximity talks' to begin this week in Geneva (25-Jan-2016)
  

****
**** Syria refuses to permit foreign monitors
****

The only significant difference between this and previous agreements
is that this agreement specifies that military forces will be deployed
to guarantee the security of the safe zones. The assumption is that
these will be international forces, since none of the parties doing
the fighting in Syria can be trusted.

So on Monday, Syria's Foreign Minister Walid Muallem announced:

> [indent]<QUOTE>"We do not accept a role for the United Nations or
> international forces to monitor the agreement. ...
>
> If any violation takes place, the Syrian army will be prepared to
> respond in a decisive manner."<END QUOTE>[/indent]

So who's going to respond if the Syrian regime commits a violation?
Once again, this is completely laughable.

It's almost beyond belief how much destruction that Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad has caused. He drops barrel bombs laden with metal,
chlorine, ammonia, phosphorous and chemical weapons onto civilian
neighborhoods, or using Sarin gas to kill large groups of people. He
considers all Sunni Muslims to be cockroaches to be exterminated.
Tens of thousands of young jihadists came to Syria from 86 countries
around to world to fight al-Assad, creating ISIS. Al-Assad has driven
millions of Syrians out of their homes, into Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey
and Europe.

So now we have this Russian proposal for four "safe zones" containing
all the Sunni men, women and children that al-Assad has been trying to
exterminate for the last six years. The Arab media is calling them
"prisons" or "concentration camps," because all of these Sunni groups
will be trapped in there, unable to leave. And who will be guarding
these safe zones? The Syrian army, led by Bashar al-Assad, who would
like to exterminate all their residents.

As I've said many times, there is no hope of this war ending, as long
as Bashar al-Assad is in power. AFP and Rudaw (Kurdistan) and SANA (Damascus) and Arab News

Related Articles

• Investigation reveals depraved new atrocities by Syria's Bashar al-Assad (08-Feb-2017)
  
  
• US increasingly expresses total disgust with Syria regime for Bashar al-Assad's atrocities (21-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Syria's air force deliberately targets hospital in Aleppo, killing dozens (29-Apr-2016)
  
  
• From 2013: The history of how Syria's Bashar al-Assad created ISIS (07-Sep-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Russia, Iran, Turkey,
Kazakhstan, safe zones, de-escalation zones, security zones,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
James Mattis, Walid Muallem, Bashar al-Assad

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 10-May-17 World View -- Trump considers new troop surge and strategy change in Afghanistan war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Trump considers new troop surge and strategy change in Afghanistan war
  
• Generational analysis: Afghanistan war versus Iraq war
  

****
**** Trump considers new troop surge and strategy change in Afghanistan war
****


American soldier at the Afghan border

According to a number of reports, President Donald Trump is
considering a plan to send an additional 3,000 to 5,000 American
troops to Afghanistan for a new "troop surge." These would add
to the 8,400 US troops already there, as well as 300 Nato troops.

The reports indicate two changes in strategy.

First, the troop levels would be heavily conditioned on the ability
of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani to weed out ineffective military
commanders and reduce corruption,

Second, the troop surge would be combined with a new military
strategy to threaten the Taliban with defeat so that they would
return to the negotiating table.

Both of these conditions are laughable. Afghanistan is entering a
generational Awakening era and Ghani has less political control than
ever over dissident forces. And the Taliban will never agree to a
peace agreement. They may attend so-called peace talks, but only for
the purpose of providing political cover for continuing the war, and
for conducting further terrorist attacks, particularly against Shia
Muslims. This is similar to Syria's president Bashar al-Assad who
uses peace conferences and peace agreements as political cover to
continue dropping barrel bombs with chemical weapons on innocent Sunni
Muslim women and children.
Military.com and Washington Post and Business Insider

Related Articles

• CENTCOM commander: Afghanistan 'stalemate' requires 'thousands' more US troops (11-Mar-2017)
  
  
• ISIS claims responsibility for attack on Shia Hazaras in Kabul Afghanistan (24-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Troubles mount for Afghanistan government as US withdrawal looms (12-Apr-2016)
  

****
**** Generational analysis: Afghanistan war versus Iraq war
****

I've written about this a number of times, starting in 2009,
when President Obama was considering
what strategy to use in Afghanistan. He eventually decided on a
"surge" in Afghanistan leading to a troop strength of 100,000, but it
was a complete farce, with repeated flip-flops on troop withdrawals,
and laughable attempts at peace talks with the Taliban.

President Bush's 2007 troop "surge" into Iraq was highly successful.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq was driven out and the country was at peace, although
many claim that the peace was squandered by President Obama's
withdrawal two years later.

So it's very tempting to try to repeat the Iraq troop surge in
Afghanistan. In fact, Obama did try that, with complete failure, as I
predicted in 2009. So now Trump is considering the same thing and the
prediction that it will end in total failure is the same. To
understand this, let's look at the difference between the Iraq and
Afghan wars from the point of view of generational theory.

Both countries are in generational Awakening eras, having had relative
recent generational crisis wars -- the Iran/Iraq war of 1980-88, and
the Afghanistan civil war of 1991-96. Both of these wars were
horrendously bloody, ending in a genocidal climax that brought
peace to the respective countries for a time.

But the Iran/Iraq war was an external war, with an external enemy,
Iran. In fact, in Iraq's last two crisis wars -- the Great Iraqi
Revolution of 1920 and the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, Sunni and Shia
Iraqis banded together against the foreign enemy, the British in 1920
and the Iranians in the 1980s. They did not fight each other. Thus,
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and al-Qaeda in Iraq were able to stir up
sectarian violence for a while, but al-Zarqawi had to import fighters
from Jordan and Saudi Arabia because the Iraqis refused to fight.
Eventually the Iraqis themselves turned against al-Qaeda in Iraq, and
threw them out. My 2007 analysis
of the war in Iraq was the best analysis written by anyone at that
time, and explained all this in detail.

Even today, Iraq is fighting an external war. the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is a coalition of foreign
jihadists from 86 countries around the world, most of whom came to
Syria to fight Bashar al-Assad. Right now the Iraqi army (ironically
with the help of the Iranians) is attacking the last of Iraq's ISIS
fighters in Mosul. There have been some flare-ups of Iraqi Shias
fighting Iraqi Sunnis, but that's not the main thing that's happening
in Iraq.

But none of that is true of the Afghan war. The 1991-1996 war was a
civil war, fought between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus
the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern
Afghanistan. The Taliban are radicalized Pashtuns, and when they need
to import foreign fighters, then can import their cousins from the
Pashtun tribes in Pakistan -- which is in a generational Crisis era,
and in which the Taliban are conducting regular terrorist acts.

The fact that the Iraq war was an external war, while the Afghan war
was a civil war means that the two wars have absolutely nothing in
common. To apply the strategy of one of these wars to the other is
disastrously wrong.

Indeed, it's much worse than that. The Pashtuns still have scores to
settle with the Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks that formed the Northern
Alliance, especially the Shias. The Taliban may sit in on peace talks
to gain political cover but they will never, under any circumstances,
agree to a peace deal, no matter how large the American troop surge.
To believe anything else is pure fantasy. US News and Vox and Politico

Related Articles

• Obama flip-flops again on Afghanistan (07-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Analysis of Afghanistan vs Iraq wars (26-Sep-2009)
  
  
• Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (01-Apr-2007)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani,
Pashtuns, Taliban, Afghan civil war,
Northern Alliance, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks,
Iraq, Iran/Iraq war, Great Iraqi Revolution,
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, al-Qaeda in Iraq,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

Xers and Millies and the American people in general, want their rights back. Boombers by imposing subordination of US interests in favor of UN/Globalist interests have imposed tyranny on the american people. The boomer objective of democratizing Russia And China is destabilizing to world peace because it imposes a direct challenge to both countries regime's legitimacy. Now the boomer insists that Putin and CCP do not have the right to rule their countries because they don't respect democracy, yet these same boomers insist that xers and millies should not have their legally entitled rights because boomers claim that xer rights "advances tyranny". In France boomers selfishly block voted to prevent 4T reforms that Le Pen would have implemented and that Xers and Millies support, instead their president is going to be some globalist banker. What a disgusting generation western boomers are.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(05-10-2017, 01:10 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(05-10-2017, 12:45 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Xers and Millies and the American people in general, want their rights back. Boombers by imposing subordination of US interests in favor of UN/Globalist interests have imposed tyranny on the american people. The boomer objective of democratizing Russia And China is destabilizing to world peace because it imposes a direct challenge to both countries regime's legitimacy. Now the boomer insists that Putin and CCP do not have the right to rule their countries because they don't respect democracy, yet these same boomers insist that xers and millies should not have their legally entitled rights because boomers claim that xer rights "advances tyranny". In France boomers selfishly block voted to prevent 4T reforms that Le Pen would have implemented and that Xers and Millies support, instead their president is going to be some globalist banker. What a disgusting generation western boomers are.

Who is doing anything to democratize the SCO countries? I don't see it. I will concede that since the supposed end of the Cold War, there have been theories that the global market and information age would result in some type of "democratization via shopping mall" and the web based equivalents. I suspect few now believe in that theory. The only attempts to directly address the SCO nations were in the few years after WW2. In the case of Europe the Allied / nascent NATO armies stopped short, allowing the Iron Curtain to be put in place. In Asia, the Soviet line was also allowed to stand and meanwhile the PLA was allowed to gain power. We could have stopped it all with more blood plus a few nukes. Never happened. No serious attempt since.

The Boombers have a peculiar ideology of democracy by globalism. By disarming and advance financial-based culture in conjunction with NGOs was supposed to lead to a wave of democratization. Actual Military buildups, even for defensive reasons, according to boomers are a bad thing because having such an infrastructure is somehow inherently anti-democratic. Even encouraging armed rebellion against an enemy regime was unacceptable unless the rebels accept a nonsensical boomer moral code. If a SCO plot does as exists like you and others believe, the boombers are the perfect patsies. The baby boomers, the dumbest people in human history now insists that they govern through the 4T so that western decision making is based on their pathetic "moral values" what idiots.