Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-Oct-17 World View -- Zimbabwe bans food imports as new 'bond note' currency crashes

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Zimbabwe's people fear further starvation after food imports are banned
  
• Zimbabwe's people fear hyperinflation again after last month's 'bond note' crash
  

****
**** Zimbabwe's people fear further starvation after food imports are banned
****


Zimbabwe bond note and US dollars (New Zimbabwean)

Zimbabwe's president Robert Mugabe has banned the importation of
fruit, vegetables and other horticultural products, in order to avert
a further economic crisis.

According to Zimbabwe's agriculture minister Joseph Wade:

<QUOTE>"His Excellency [president Robert Mugabe] has directed
me and the Minister of Industry and Commerce to quickly stop the
importation of horticultural products as they waste much needed
foreign currency. This means that the importation of fruit and
vegetables will be stopped immediately. We are finalizing on the
exact list of foreign-produced fruits that are occupying shelves
in shops.

This must be a positive development for our farmers, we now want
them to improve on their production capacity and also to produce
quality produce. The foreign currency being wasted on the
importation of carrots and grapes will now be utilized towards the
purchase of more fertilizers and pesticides."<END QUOTE>

The reason that Zimbabwe's farm have such low production capacity is
because their current owners are almost all from Mugabe's Shona tribe,
and apparently are so incompetent that they don't know the difference
between a plough and a tricycle.

Robert Mugabe is a genocidal psychopath, just like Syria's Bashar
al-Assad. Mugabe is from the Shona tribe, and in the early 1980s, he
launched a massive genocide and ethnic cleansing campaign against his
traditional tribal enemies, the Ndebele tribe. During that campaign,
known as Operation Gukurahundi, accomplished with the help of training
by North Koreans, tens of thousands of people, mostly from the Ndebele
tribe, were raped, tortured and slaughtered.

In 1999, Mugabe adopted his "indigenization" program. At that time,
Zimbabwe was considered the breadbasket of Africa, second only to
Kenya in food production. Mugabe threw all the white farm owners out
of the country, and turned the farms over to his incompetent cronies
in the Shona tribe. By 2003, Zimbabwe was starving, and the number of
Zimbabweans dying of starvation continued to grow. By 2008, the
official rate of inflation was 231 million percent. ( "24-Feb-2014 World View -- Mass murderer Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe has 90th birthday"
)

For 15 years, I've been writing these articles about what's going on
in the world, and it just never ceases to amaze me about how
psychopaths like Bashar al-Assad and Robert Mugabe can stay in power
for years and decades, despite the unbelievable amount of destruction
they cause. It's almost as if they have some magical hypnotic
capability the keeps them in power, no matter how many atrocities are
committed, no matter how many men are tortured, no matter how many
women are raped, no matter how millions of people become homeless or
are simply slaughtered. It's just a source of unending astonishment
how this goes on and on.

And now, once again, Zimbabweans are fearful that the number of people
starving to death is going to get even worse. Herald (Zimbabwe) and Reuters
and AFP


****
**** Zimbabwe's people fear hyperinflation again after last month's 'bond note' crash
****

Zimbabwe appears to be on the brink of an economic meltdown, after a
currency panic that began on September 25, resulting in a 50%
inflation of the new "bond note" currency, introduced in December of
last year, supposedly to stabilize the economy.

In 2008, the inflation rate on the Zimbabwe dollar reached 231 million
percent (231,000,000% inflation), essentially making the Zimbabwe
dollar worth less than toilet paper. The US dollar and the South
African rand became the official currencies. But Mugabe's destruction
of the economy continued, as he extended his "indigenization" program
to other businesses, shutting them down and turning them over to his
incompetent Shona cronies.

Just as Zimbabwe used to be able grow enormous amounts of food, the
country's economy should be bristling, thanks to its principal
commodity exports, gold, platinum, tobacco, ferro chrome and diamonds.
However, these businesses have been mostly turned over to Mugabe's
incompetent Shona cronies. Thanks to government corruption and
falling commodity prices, Zimbabwe's economy was in a liquidity crisis
last year, due to a lack of available US dollars.

So to solve this problem, Zimbabwe introduced a new currency called
"bond notes," each one of which is nominally the value of one US
dollar. Zimbabweans were told that the value of the bond notes would
be guaranteed by Cairo-based African Export–Import Bank (Afreximbank).
The details of how that guarantee would be executed have never been
explained, and many people have been suspicious that the bond notes
have nothing backing them at all (just like Bitcoin.
)

So there was a market panic starting on September 25 of this year, as
people feared that the new "bond notes" were going to have the same
type of hyperinflation as the old Zimbabwe dollar.

The bond notes lost 50% of their value and would have collapsed
completely, except that Afreximbank stepped in and loaned Zimbabwe
$600 million to stabilize the economy. $32 million of that money was
used to pay off the electricity company Eskom, which was threatening
to switch off electricity to the entire country for lack of payment.

The crisis appears to have eased, but bond notes are still suffering
from inflation, with 1.3 bond notes now equivalent to one US dollar.
And as long as Afreximbank is willing to continue pouring hundreds of
millions of US dollars into Zimbabwe, the economy should remain fairly
stable. Independent (Zimbabwe) and New Zimbabwe and Bulawayo (Zimbabwe)

Related Articles

• Venezuela's currency becomes worthless, as Zimbabwe introduces new currency (08-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Zimbabwe launching a Soviet style command agriculture program (20-Aug-2016)
  
  
• Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Puerto Rico - three amigos in Marxist economic destruction (01-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Mass murderer Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe has 90th birthday (24-Feb-2014)
  
  
• Zimbabwe's 'Liberation Hero' president Robert Mugabe continues to destroy his country (04-May-2008)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe, Joseph Wade,
Operation Gukurahundi, Shona, Ndebele, Syria, Bashar al-Assad,
indigenization, bond notes, African Export–Import Bank, Afreximbank

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 22-Oct-17 World View -- Egyptian police ambushed and killed by Muslim Brotherhood linked Hasm Movement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Dozens of Egyptian police massacred in ambush by jihadists
  
• Officials point to Hasm Movement, armed wing of Muslim Brotherhood
  

****
**** Dozens of Egyptian police massacred in ambush by jihadists
****


The al-Bahariya Oasis, in the desert region where the ambush occurred

In the largest terrorist attack against Egypt's security forces in
decades, as many as 55 policemen were killed in a sophisticated ambush
by militants on Friday evening. A large police convoy in four SUVs
were traveling to the al-Bahariya Oasis in the vast desert expanse in
Giza province southwest of Cairo, based on intelligence that there was
a secret terrorist hideout there.

The whole thing was apparently a setup, as the militants were prepared
for the arrival of the policemen. When the convoy arrived, dozens of
militants opened up with heavy machine guns, recoilless grenades and
mortars, and detonated roadside bombs. The Egyptian air force was not
called in, leading to suspicions that the militants had penetrated
Egypt's security forces.

Militancy has been growing and spreading in Egypt. In the past year,
militants have killed hundreds of Egyptian security forces and judges,
and have targeted minority Christian communities and bombed churches
in Cairo, Alexandria and other areas. This insurgency has continued
and grown, even as Egypt's military and police forces claim to have
killed thousands of suspected terrorists. Daily News Egypt and AP and Washington Post and Debka

****
**** Officials point to Hasm Movement, armed wing of Muslim Brotherhood
****

No one has claimed responsibility for Friday evening's ambush, but
it's believed that the perpetrators were the Hasm Movement, which is
believed to be the armed wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, although MB
officials deny a connection. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt was
violent for decades, but renounced violence in the 1970s. If Hasm is
linked to the Muslim Brotherhood, it would represent a return to
violence for the organization.

"Hasm" in Arabic means "decisiveness" or "termination," but the name
of the group may be also an acronym of Arabic phrase "Harakat Sawa'd
Misr," which literally means "Arms of Egypt Movement". It first
emerged publicly when it claimed credit for an attack on a police
officer on July 18, 2016. Since then, the group has claimed credit
for a number of deadly attacks on security forces and assassinations
of public figures.

Egypt's president Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi has cracked down extremely
harshly on Muslim Brotherhood members, jailing thousands of them and
subjecting many to torture, since, as an army general, al-Sisi led an
army coup overthrowing the democratically elected but incompetently
governing Mohammed Morsi, and his Muslim Brotherhood ministers.

Although the Muslim Brotherhood still claims to be a non-violent
political organization, there's little doubt that al-Sisi's harsh,
bloody atrocities committed against Brotherhood members has
radicalized some of the younger members, and that may be the genesis
of the Hasm Movement, though that hasn't been proven.

Al-Sisi has hands full with the Bedouin-based Sinai terrorist group
Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem),
which changed its name to al-Wilayat Sinai (Province of Sinai) when it
changed its allegiance in 2015 from al-Qaeda to the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Al-Sisi has conducted a scorched earth counter-insurgency approach to
ABM, which takes advantage of the deeply alienated Bedouin population.
However, ABM's appeal among ordinary Egyptians has been limited
because of its ruthless attacks on ordinary civilians.

The Hasm Movement has apparently learned from ABM's experience. Hasm
have been avoiding attacks on civilians, and have been targeting
policemen, security officials and government officials, so that they
may be able to gain greater traction among the Egyptian people than
ABM has been able to do. Deutsche Welle and Jamestown (21-Apr) and International Institute for Counter-Terrorism and Al-Jazeera

Related Stories

• Egypt in 3-month state of emergency after Coptic church bombings (10-Apr-2017)
  
  
• ISIS forces hundreds of Christians to flee Egypt's North Sinai (28-Feb-2017)
  
  
• ISIS-linked terrorists kill dozens in Egypt's northern Sinai (30-Jan-2015)
  
  
• Egypt's Morsi gives angry, desperate speech to save his job (03-Jul-2013)
  
  
• Egypt's army deposes Morsi in a non-coup coup (04-Jul-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Egypt, al-Bahariya Oasis, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi,
Hasm Movement, Arms of Egypt Movement, Mohammed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood,
Ansar Jerusalem, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, ABM, Champions of Jerusalem,
Bedouins, Sinai Province, Al Wilayat Sinai

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-Oct-17 World View -- Big election win for Japan's Shinzo Abe may mean end of pacifism

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Japan's Shinzo Abe wins a 'super-majority' in Japan's lower house
  
• Abe promises to change the constitution to end Japan's pacifism
  

****
**** Japan's Shinzo Abe wins a 'super-majority' in Japan's lower house
****


Japan's Shinzo Abe campaigning (CNN)

Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), led by prime minister
Shinzo Abe, won a landslide victory in a snap election on
Sunday, reaching a two-thirds "super-majority" in the lower
house of Japan's parliament.

When Abe called for the snap election last month, many analysts
considered it a high-risk gamble because his approval rating had been
falling. (When Britain's Theresa May called for a similar UK election
earlier this year, the result was political disaster.)

Abe's opponents accused him of calling the snap election to create a
distraction from the corruption scandal he was facing, based on
accusations that he had used his influence as prime minister to help a
private university and an ultra-nationalist school in their business
deals with the government.

Whatever the motivation, the gamble seems to have paid off in a big
way. Abe denied that the scandals had anything to do with this
actions. Instead, he took a nationalistic stance against North
Korea's growing belligerence and threats. North Korea launched two
ballistic missile tests, on August 28 and September 14, respectively,
with the missiles flying over Japanese airspace.

On Saturday, Abe said to supporters:

<QUOTE>"We can no longer let ourselves be fooled by North
Korea. We cannot succumb to its threats. By taking advantage of
our strong diplomacy, we have to make sure the North will have no
other option but change its policy and return to the negotiating
table."<END QUOTE>

Abe has also gained popularity by "Abenomics," a combination of
generous government spending and central bank monetary easing.

The landslide win makes it likely that Abe, who took office in
December 2012, will next year win a third three-year term as LDP
leader and prime minister. Japan Times and BBC

****
**** Abe promises to change the constitution to end Japan's pacifism
****

Prior to Sunday's election, Shinzo Abe's LDP was able to muster a
two-thirds "super-majority," when combined with its coalition partner
Komeito. If the final vote count goes as expected, then the LDP will
have a super-majority by itself in the lower house, though a coalition
will still be required in the upper house. A two-thirds majority is
required to amend the constitution.

Abe has said repeatedly that he'd like to amend the constitution
to repeal Article 9, which says:

<QUOTE>"CHAPTER II - RENUNCIATION OF WAR

Article 9. Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on
justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a
sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as
means of settling international disputes.

In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land,
sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be
maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be
recognized."<END QUOTE>

Japan actually has very powerful land, sea and air forces, arguably
in violation of Article 9. But they've never fired a shot at
an enemy. They're known as "Self-Defense Forces" (SDF), and are
currently forbidden from participating in any military action
except on Japanese soil in case of foreign attack.

In 2015, Abe was able to get the parliament to reinterpret the
self-defense clause to mean "collective self-defense." Under this
interpretation, military action would be permitted anywhere in the
world when an ally (such as the United States) is attacked. I
discussed the meaning of "collective self-defense" in detail in 2014
in "5-May-2014 World View -- Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan"
.

A lot of international media discussions of the election are blaming
Article 9 on the United States, for imposing it on Japan at the end of
World War II. It's true that American General Douglas MacArthur did
require the self-defense clause to be included in Japan's post-war
constitution, but that was 70 years ago. Japan could have amended its
constitution at many points in the last seven decades, but chose not
to. The self-defense clause has been very popular, not only because
many people believe that it makes war less likely, but also because
the Japanese people save a lot of money by just leaving it to the
United States to provide military protection. Even the
reinterpretation as "collective self-defense" was and is highly
controversial.

For Shinzo Abe, amending Article 9 is personal, in that he's following
in the path of his grandfather, Kishi Nobusuke, who served as prime
minister of Japan from 1957-60. Kishi disliked the pacifism clause
because it made Japan too dependent on the United States, and he
wanted Japan to be completely self-reliant in national defense. For
Abe, amending this clause would fulfill his grandfather's wish.

Earlier this year, in a statement commemorating the 70th anniversary
of the constitution, Abe set a 2020 deadline for amending the
constitution:

<QUOTE>"I believe that we must establish the status of the SDF
explicitly in the constitution during our generation's lifetime
and leave no room for contending the SDF could be
unconstitutional. I strongly wish to make 2020 the year that the
reborn Japan will make a new start."<END QUOTE>

Ironically, it's been belligerent actions by China and North Korea
that may have made it possible for Abe to get the constitution
amended. In particular, the people of Japan (and South Korea) are no
longer as certain as they were in the past that the United States
would protect them. But with the United States increasingly concerned
about protecting itself, Japan and South Korea are both now looking
for ways to increase their own military capabilities, and not have to
depend on the US as much. With the Japanese people becoming
increasingly anxious, Abe may succeed in getting the constitution
amended by 2020, despite the fierce opposition. Kyodo News and NBC News and South China Morning Post and CNN

Related Articles

• North Korea crisis: Would the United States sacrifice Los Angeles for Seoul? (18-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Japan's election opens the way to repeal 'pacifism' constitution clause (12-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Russia and Japan fail to agree on ending World War II (17-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Japan and Russia may settle post-World War II Kuril Islands dispute (03-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Japan's election opens the way to repeal 'pacifism' constitution clause (12-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Japanese warships visit Vietnam, as China moves warplanes into South China Sea (14-Apr-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Japan, Shinzo Abe, Abenomics,
Liberal Democratic Party, LDP,
North Korea, China, Self-defense forces, SDF,
Article 9, Collective self-defense, Douglas MacArthur,
Kishi Nobusuke, South Korea

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Warren Dew]

Meanwhile, we now know the timetable for China's alleged global domination. They hope for a "world class military" by - get this - 2050:

http://us11.campaign-archive.com/?e=6b67...7bd314bd5c

That will be of equal importance to "eliminating poverty" by 2020. By the time the crisis war rolls around, China might have eliminated poverty, but their military will still be roughly equal to that of France.

[John J. Xenakis]

(10-22-2017, 11:11 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > Meanwhile, we now know the timetable for China's alleged global
> domination. They hope for a "world class military" by - get this
> - 2050:

> http://us11.campaign-archive.com/?e=6b67...7bd314bd5c

> That will be of equal importance to "eliminating poverty" by
> 2020. By the time the crisis war rolls around, China might have
> eliminated poverty, but their military will still be roughly equal
> to that of France.

Yeah, generational crisis wars always stick to a timetable
defined by politicians, don't they.

Xi's remarks about "world class military" by 2050, which as usual are
being taken seriously by the credulous, fawning left-wing press of
which Thomas Friedman is one of the chief idiots, were necessary,
because any claims to a world class military today would be mocked by
many young Chinese, and would raise huge alarms around Asia and in the
United States. Xi said what he had to say -- fake news.

What's interesting about "Xi's Thoughts" and "Socialism with Chinese
characteristics" is that there's no difference between them and
Hitler's Thoughts and National Socialism.

• China has become an international criminal nation by building
  military bases in international waters in the South China Sea, in
  direct violation of international law as defined by the UN Tribunal in
  the Hague. Nazi Germany did the same thing in Czechoslovakia and
  Poland.
  
  
• China has become a military dictatorship, developing multiple
  missile systems whose only purpose is to attack American aircraft
  carriers, military bases, and cities. Those missiles will be launched
  long before 2050. Hitler did the same thing by building a massive air
  force in preparation for war with Britain, in violation of
  international law and the agreements it had signed after World War I.
  
  
• And now we have Socialism with Chinese Characteristics. It and
  Hitler's National Socialism explain why their government model is
  superior to everyone else's, why they're right about everything and
  everyone else is wrong, and why military force is OK at any time that
  anyone else is not doing what their government demands.
  
  
• The Chinese people hold strong nationalist, xenophobic and racist
  views targeting the Tibetans, Uighurs, Japanese, South Koreans,
  Philippine people, and Vietnamese. Hitler had similar racist and
  xenophobic views targeting Jews, Russians and English.
  
  
• For a war to be supported by the population, every war leader must
  provide an ideological framework to justify torture, rape, mass
  slaughter, and streets filled with blood, whether it's killing
  infidels or Marxism. China's Socialism with Chinese Characteristics
  and Hitler's National Socialism both use an ideological framework
  based on Marxism.

When I was in school in the 1950s-60s, I was repeatedly told that the
difference between Communism and Naziism was that in Communism the
government owned all the businesses (which was "good"), while in
Naziism it was still a capitalist system (which was "bad"), but the
government still controlled everything. That's exactly the economic
system that China has today. It's pure National Socialism (Naziism).

Xi's Thoughts are actually about Naziism with Chinese Characteristics,
and it's a very scary development because they provide an ideologic
framework to justify any military action at any time.

[Cynic Hero '86]

Since Xi has shown every sign of abandoning Kim. He would have to attack within Asia initially prior to moving against the west. This Crucial neutrality period would be Used for further tooling up the US military following the new Korean war; Especially since the war with North Korea would be the toughest war since WW2 for us and the period between the first Chinese armies crossing a national boundary and the start of any west-china war could be several years or more. Xi would move in Asia first because the Korean war would result in a rejuvenated US military as a result of the conflict and as post-North Korean war lessons are implemented by the US military. Given the likely reality, by the time Xi is ready for a war with the west he would likely already by embroiled in a total war with his continental enemies. The only scenario were china would be able to concentrate solely on the west and defeat the west would be if Both North Korea and Taiwan are somehow resolved peacefully at least officially and then later the CCP orders a sneak attack, but this would require the demilitarization of Korea followed by a deception campaign. An example of how North Korea's very existence prevents china from striking into the pacific has been shown just in the last few days; The US has just ordered the nuclear bomber force to go back to the cold war era 24/7 alert policy because of the Korean crisis.

Also regarding china as military dictatorship, as I and others have pointed out before, the CCP controls the PLA over there, not the other way around. Any war would be directed from the politburo leadership under their system.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-Oct-17 World View -- Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Xi Jinping presents 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era'
  
• Xi's Chinese Socialism and Hitler's National Socialism
  

****
**** Xi Jinping presents 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era'
****


Ji Jinping

China's state media and even the international media are bubbling with
excitement these days, after China's president Xi Jinping gave an
extremely nationalistic 3-1/2 hour keynote speech at the 19th Chinese
Community Party National Congress last week, in which he describe
"Socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era."

The phrase "Socialism with Chinese characteristics" has been around
for a while, but Xi has added "for a new era" to make it his own.
"Xi's Thoughts" will be a new ideology that will bring the "China
Dream" to fruition, and by 2050 will make China the world leader
militarily and economically, and in political and environmental
issues, replacing the United States, and with Socialism replacing
Capitalism as the economic system of choice for countries around the
world.

Furthermore Xi's Thoughts will be made part of the Chinese Communist
Party (CCP) constitution, placing Xi Jinping on a par with Mao Zedong
among China's great historic leaders.

What does Xi say China's new era will look like? Here are some
excerpts:

<QUOTE>"This is a new historic juncture in China’s
development. ...

The Chinese nation, which in the modern era has endured so much
for so long, has achieved a tremendous transformation—it has stood
up, grown rich, and become strong, and it now embraces the
brilliant prospects of rejuvenation. ...

It will be an era that sees China moving closer to center stage
and making greater contributions to mankind. ...

China’s development does not pose a threat to any other
country. No matter what stage of development it reaches, China
will never seek hegemony or engage in expansion. ...

No country can alone address the many challenges facing mankind;
no country can afford to retreat into self-isolation. ...

China now leads the world in trade, outbound investment, and
foreign-exchange reserves. ...

We will make it our mission to see that by 2035, the modernization
of our national defense is basically complete, and that by the
mid-21st century [2050] our people’s armed forces have been fully
transformed into world-class forces. ...

A military is prepared for war. All military works must adhere to
the standards of being able to fight a war and win a war. Our
army is the people’s army; our defense is national defense. [We
must] enhance the education on national defense education,
consolidate the unity between the military and civilian, in order
to achieve the Chinese dream of a strong military. ...

We have the resolve, the confidence, and the ability to defeat
‘Taiwan Independence’ in any form. We will never allow anyone, any
organization or any political party, at any time or any form, to
separate any part of Chinese territory from China. ...

Construction on islands and reefs in the South China Sea has seen
steady progress."<END QUOTE>

These claims have to be viewed through the lens of the "24-Character
Strategy" (24 Chinese characters) formulated by one of Xi's
predecessors, Deng Xiaoping, in 1990:

<QUOTE>"Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with
affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at
maintaining a low profile; and never claim
leadership."<END QUOTE>

In particular, the claim that China will have a "world class military"
by 2050 should be viewed through Deng's strategy. China is spending
many billions of dollars on the military, developing huge weapons
systems, a large navy, space technology, and anything else that will
permit China to fight a war against the United States long before
2050. If Xi claimed that China has a world class military today, he
would be ridiculed by young Chinese, and he would alarm all the
neighboring countries in Asia. The 2050 date is "fake news," and by
proffering it, he does what's necessary to promote the "China Dream"
while hiding his true intentions.

The Chinese have become almost completely delusional. Press reports
indicate that many Chinese, especially young Chinese, believe that
China's Socialism has already beaten the United States. They point to
China's poverty in the 1970s, and claim that the reason that China has
become so economically powerful today is because the Socialist
dictatorship allows the CCP to force things to happen to prevent a
financial crisis.

So the first part of the Chinese delusion is that they think that
they've accomplished something that America hasn't. America has made
huge economic gains since the 1970s, and developed new technologies in
computers, medicine, weaponry, transportation, and in every other
field. China has done nothing comparable, and in fact has had to
steal technology from the West. The Chinese want to focus on the
Nasdaq crash in 2001 and the Lehman crisis in 2008, but in fact the
resilient Western economy has survived them and continued to thrive.
And the Chinese should take note of the fact that our Federal Reserve
central bank can unilaterally do many of the things the CCP can do to
recover from a crisis. So China hasn't done anything that the West
hasn't done, even if they nurture the delusion that they have.

The second part of the Chinese delusion is that they think that
they're immune to financial crises in the future. China is in a huge
debt bubble, and when a panic occurs, the bubble will implode much
faster than the CCP can print money. Regular readers are aware that
Generational Dynamics predicts a major global panic and financial
crisis. Western nations will try to recover through monetary and
fiscal policy, while China will try to recover through whatever
dictatorial methods it can, but this will be a major generational
panic and crisis, and neither China nor the West will be immune.

So Socialism has given China nothing that the West doesn't have, but
has cost the Chinese people enormously. I sometimes muse what would
happen to me in China's Socialist paradise. I write these
Generational Dynamics analyses in Boston, and I feel free to criticize
anyone in the world (and there's plenty to criticize). But I wrote
exactly the same things in Beijing, the CCP's police would drag me out
of apartment, throw me into a hole, and hang me by my thumbs. The CCP
is increasingly using mobile phones to track everyone's movements and
everyone's thoughts, and anyone violating CCP rules risks being thrown
in jail. South China Morning Post and Quartz and The Diplomat

****
**** Xi's Chinese Socialism and Hitler's National Socialism
****

What's interesting about "Xi's Thoughts" and "Socialism with Chinese
characteristics for a new era" is that there's no difference between
them and Hitler's Thoughts and National Socialism.

• China has become an international criminal nation by building
  military bases in international waters in the South China Sea, in
  direct violation of international law as defined by the United Nations
  Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague. Nazi Germany did the
  same thing in Czechoslovakia and Poland.
  
  
• China has become a military dictatorship, developing multiple
  missile systems whose only purpose is to attack American aircraft
  carriers, military bases, and cities. Those missiles will be launched
  long before 2050. Hitler did the same thing by building a massive air
  force in preparation for war with Britain, in violation of
  international law and the agreements it had signed after World War
  I.
  
  
• And now we have Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a new
  era. It and Hitler's National Socialism explain why their government
  model is superior to everyone else's, why they're right about
  everything and everyone else is wrong, and why military force is OK at
  any time that anyone else is not doing what their government
  demands.
  
  
• The Chinese people hold strong nationalist, xenophobic and racist
  views targeting the Tibetans, Uighurs, Japanese, South Koreans,
  Philippine people, and Vietnamese. Hitler had similar racist and
  xenophobic views targeting Jews, Russians, French and English.
  
  
• For a war to be supported by the population, every war leader must
  provide an ideological framework to justify torture, rape, mass
  slaughter, and streets filled with blood, whether it's killing
  infidels or Marxism. China's Socialism with Chinese Characteristics
  and Hitler's National Socialism both use an ideological framework
  based on Marxism.

I was in school in the 1950s-60s, I was repeatedly told that the
difference between Communism and Nazism was that in Communism the
government owned all the businesses (which was "good"), while in
Nazism it was still a capitalist system (which was "bad"), but the
government still controlled everything. That's exactly the economic
system that China has today. It's pure National Socialism (Nazism).

Xi's Thoughts are actually about Nazism with Chinese Characteristics,
and it's a very scary development because they provide an ideological
framework to justify any military action at any time.

As I've written in the past, China is behaving in a highly emotional,
irrational, panicky, nationalistic manner, issuing delusional and
fabricated evidence to support claims that everybody knows are false
claims. This is what makes China so dangerous

Xi Jinping and the CCP are international criminals for invading and
annexing regions in the South China Sea belonging to other countries,
in violation of international law, which is what Hitler did. China is
building missile systems whose only purpose is to attack American
cities, military bases, and aircraft carriers, just as Hitler built
its air force to attack Britain. China is preparing to launch a war
on its neighbors, as well as on America, which it believes it will
win, just has Hitler did. This is all delusional.

Instead, China will cause a catastrophe to itself and the rest of the
world. History will look back on China as the worst disaster to the
world in history, worse than the Nazis and the Imperial Japanese
combined. By 2050, China will be worse off than it was in 1950.
Xinhua and BBC and China Daily

Related Articles

• China bans Winnie The Pooh because Xi Jinping looks like him (18-Jul-2017)
  
  
• China displays belligerence, militarism in WW II victory parade (04-Sep-2015)
  
  
• China repudiates its Hong Kong 'One Country, Two Systems' agreement with Britain (01-Jul-2017)
  
  
• 'Tiananmen Mothers' commemorate China's Tiananmen Square massacre (04-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, Xi Jinping, China Dream, Xi's Thoughts,
Socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era,
Mao Zedong, Chinese Community Party National Congress,
Deng Xiaoping, 24-Character Strategy, Fake news,
Adolf Hitler, National Socialism, Nazism, Marxism, Communism,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA,
South China Sea, Czechoslovakia, Poland

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

Yet John X you advocate for the US doing nothing. If you actually believed that China is a threat to the west; you would be supporting an immediate strike on North Korea. Especially given that this is a prime time to do so and the Norks have given clear provocation. Yet you consistently advocate on your blogs doing absolutely nothing, even accepting establishment by North Korea of another nuclear arsenal pointed at the US augmenting the existing arsenals of Russia and China. Its delusional to accept a North Korean nuclear arsenal since it GUARANTEES a world war with either Russia or China or even both. I suspect you know full well that my and other proposals would lead either to success in preventing US involvement in a WW3, or at least toward the US being a stronger position in WW3. This ties in to your question of "saving los angeles or seoul" the generational decision would be to "save LA" the other choice "save seoul" (the boomer globalists/China and Russia democratizer advocates preference) can only be implemented by the US government using coercion.

On a different subject its hilarious that Boomers lambast China's (and russia's) governments in regards to the citizenry's access to the political process. The human rights issue is not the sole determinant of political freedom, especially as "human rights" over the past 3 to 4 decades around the world has been used as an excuse to overthrow legitimate governments by western NGOs. If anything both China and Russia have more freedom than what we have here in america over the last few decades; because the nationalistic passions, biases and prejudices of the Russian and Chinese peoples are allowed to influences and have weight on the government polices in Russia and China. Here in the US however, the boomers have tyrannically taken away that right from the american people. US policy is not representing the Nationalistic passions and Biases of the American People, the fact that the government is implementing policy that is contrary to the preferences of the american people indicates that the people's rights have been taken away from them and tyranny introduced. All that Americans are asking from our government are their rights back and globalist tyranny over the US ended.

[Warren Dew]

(10-23-2017, 08:15 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(10-22-2017, 11:11 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: >   Meanwhile, we now know the timetable for China's alleged global
>   domination.  They hope for a "world class military" by - get this
>   - 2050:

>   http://us11.campaign-archive.com/?e=6b67...7bd314bd5c

>   That will be of equal importance to "eliminating poverty" by
>   2020. By the time the crisis war rolls around, China might have
>   eliminated poverty, but their military will still be roughly equal
>   to that of France.  

Yeah, generational crisis wars always stick to a timetable
defined by politicians, don't they.

Xi's remarks about "world class military" by 2050, which as usual are
being taken seriously by the credulous, fawning left-wing press of
which Thomas Friedman is one of the chief idiots, were necessary,
because any claims to a world class military today would be mocked by
many young Chinese, and would raise huge alarms around Asia and in the
United States.  Xi said what he had to say -- fake news.

I think you're getting your Friedmans confused.  This is George Friedman, not Thomas, and he's anything but left wing.

Crisis wars have their own timetable.  That timetable is different from politicians' timetables.  Surely you don't claim that the politicians are always prepared for the crises?

The fact is, Xi's military is now comparable to - slightly weaker than - France's.  His timetable is realistic; it takes a very long time to build up a navy, and he has a long way to go.  The relevant issue about the timetable is that it means he will be nowhere near prepared for the crisis war; he might have a military stronger than France's by then, but it won't be much stronger.

You also seem to be blind to developments in actual first world nations other than the US.  For example, Abe is pushing to amend Japan's constitution to permit an offensive military again.  Europe won't be immune to the war either.  Surely you know these things.

[Warren Dew]

(10-23-2017, 09:46 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: I was in school in the 1950s-60s, I was repeatedly told that the
difference between Communism and Nazism was that in Communism the
government owned all the businesses (which was "good"), while in
Nazism it was still a capitalist system (which was "bad"), but the
government still controlled everything.  That's exactly the economic
system that China has today.  It's pure National Socialism (Nazism).

You might not want to put too much trust in teachers who thought Communism was good and capitalism was bad.

The fact is, National Socialism is not capitalist at all; it's socialist.  In Germany, it happened to include former "captains of industry" in its chain of command, but the only difference from Communism was that the central planning apparatus was less tightly controlled by the dictator.

The term "socialism with a Chinese character", it should be noted, was first used by Mao to differentiate Chinese Communism from Soviet Communism.  Mao's Communism was, of course, even more disastrous economically.

Since then, Deng and Xi have used the same words to refer to different things.  Deng introduced a free market, while still maintaining state control of large industry.  Between Deng and Xi, free market industry started overtaking state industry.  Xi is just trying to get the new large industries under control, mostly because he wants them investing in China's rural interior, rather than overseas.

Your analysis of Xi's plans for the Chinese economy, while correct, actually point up differences from National Socialism, rather than similarities.  Your description of what Xi wants is closer to national capitalism rather than national socialism.

[Warren Dew]

(10-11-2017, 05:37 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(10-10-2017, 08:39 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: >   Except one.  If Russia is going to be our ally, then why all the
>   fuss over Russian X, where X = trolls, #fakenews,etc.?

>   If #fakenews works so well, why aren't we doing it?  It has a lot
>   fewer causalities.

Russia will be our ally for the same reason that Stalin was our ally -
they're less worse than the alternative.

In my opinion, fake news and trolls do no good at all except produce
political chaos.  Russia's trolls and fake news claim that Russia
didn't invade Crimea, and yet there are still American and European
sanctions on Russia for invading Crimea.  Russia claims they didn't
shoot down the airliner, but everyone believes they did.  Russia
claims that al-Assad didn't use Sarin gas, but everyone believes they
did.  In my opinion, Russia's fake news and trolls not only did them
no good, they caused enormous harm, because Russian officials and
media have almost no credibility any more.

You mistake the purpose of Russian style fake news.  It's not meant to take care of long term issues; it's meant to sow short term uncertainty and doubt for just long enough to let Russia seize what it chooses.

The fact that Russia still occupies Crimea, and through proxies, Donbas and South Ossetia, shows that Russia's fake news is highly effective.

Not that Russia might not still be an eventual ally against radical Islam, mind.

[David Horn]

(10-24-2017, 05:32 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: ... The fact is, National Socialism is not capitalist at all; it's socialist.  In Germany, it happened to include former "captains of industry" in its chain of command, but the only difference from Communism was that the central planning apparatus was less tightly controlled by the dictator.

National Socialism was as much socialist as the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea is democratic. You can put anything in a name.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 25-Oct-17 World View -- Kenya closes border with Madagascar as Black Plague epidemic spreads

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pneumonic plague (Black plague) spreads rapidly in Madagascar
  
• Kenya increase border security from Madagascar because of plague epidemic
  

****
**** Pneumonic plague (Black plague) spreads rapidly in Madagascar
****


Children are required to wear face masks at school in Antananarivo, Madagascar's capital city (AP)

Health officials from around the world are converging on the island of
Madagascar in an attempt to control an extremely dangerous and rapidly
spreading epidemic of the Black Plague before it becomes an
international threat.

Since August 1 until Monday, the World Health Organization has
registered 1,365 possible case of plague, with about half of them
confirmed or considered probable. Over 100 people have been reported
killed by the plague.

There are actually two separate epidemics in progress, with different
forms of the plague.

About 1/3 of the cases are Bubonic Plague. This form of the plague is
fairly common in Madagascar, recurring each year but usually claiming
few lives. This form of the plague is carried by rats and then
transferred to humans by fleas that bite the rats and then bite the
humans. This form is usually confined to remote rural areas, and is
triggered by the wide-spread ‘slash and burn’ practice as rats which
carry the fleas carrying the bacteria Yersinia pestis move towards
habitation locations, thereby facilitating human infection through
flea bites, according to the United Nations.

What's different this year is the rapid spread of the most virulent
form, Pneumonic Plague or Plague Pneumonia. Unlike Bubonic Plague,
Pneumonic Plague is spread through the air from person to person, and
is highly contagious. Pneumonic Plague spreads rapidly through
heavily populated urban areas, and there have been 846 possible cases
registered by WHO so far, particularly the capital city Antananarivo,
and two coastal towns of Tamatave and Mahajunga. If the infection is
not diagnosed and treated immediately, death occurs within one-three
days. The epidemic has not yet reached its peak, according to CDC
officials.

The Black Death is thought to have killed around 25 million in Europe
in the late 1340s, and 100 million people worldwide. CDC
and United Nations ReliefWeb and The Sun (London)

****
**** Kenya increase border security from Madagascar because of plague epidemic
****

Madagascar is an island nation off the southeast coast of Africa in
the Indian Ocean. World Health Organization (WHO) officials are
trying to prevent the epidemic from spreading to nearby nations on the
African mainland.

Kenya has taken immediate action to prevent the spread, according to a
statement from the Ministry of Health:

<QUOTE>"The World Health Organization has notified the
Ministry of Health of a confirmed ongoing plague epidemic in
Madagascar. The cases have been reported from eighteen out of 22
regions in the country including traditionally non endemic areas.

In view of the above information, it is necessary that the health
care system in the country initiates preparedness and response
measures to prevent spread to the country and to promptly detect,
notify and appropriately manage any suspected cases in the
community or in health facilities if the outbreak spreads to
Kenya.

Specifically, all county health management teams, sub-county
health management teams, hospital health management teams, health
workers in hospitals and those at points of entry are asked to
look out for patients with acute onset of fever, chills, headache,
severe malaise, chest pain and difficulty in
breathing."<END QUOTE>

WHO has classified the event as a Grade 2 emergency. Over 4,400
community health workers are carrying out contact tracing activities
in Madagascar, being supervised by 340 medical doctors and students.
Once a person is diagnosed with the infection, "contact tracing"
refers to locating all people that the infected person had contact
with. In addition, surveillance activities at airports and ports are
being strengthened.

According to the WHO, there is a risk of regional spread due to the
occurrence of frequent travel by air and sea to neighboring Indian
Ocean islands and other southern and east African countries. This risk
is mitigated by the short incubation period of pneumonic plague,
implementation of exit screening measures in Madagascar, and scaling
up of preparedness and operational readiness activities in neighboring
Indian Ocean islands and other southern and east African
countries. The overall global risk is considered to be low. Capital News (Kenya) and Citizen TV (Kenya) and World Health Organization

Related Articles

• Madagascar faces a locust invasion of Biblical proportions (30-Oct-2013)
  
  
• In a fragile world, a swine flu pandemic would have geopolitical consequences (27-Apr-2009)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bubonic plague, Pneumonic Plague, Black Death,
Yersinia pestis, Madagascar, Antananarivo, Tamatave, Mahajunga
World Health Organization, WHO, Kenya

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

(10-24-2017, 01:20 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Yet John X you advocate for the US doing nothing. If you actually
> believed that China is a threat to the west; you would be
> supporting an immediate strike on North Korea. Especially given
> that this is a prime time to do so and the Norks have given clear
> provocation. Yet you consistently advocate on your blogs doing
> absolutely nothing, even accepting establishment by North Korea of
> another nuclear arsenal pointed at the US augmenting the existing
> arsenals of Russia and China. Its delusional to accept a North
> Korean nuclear arsenal since it GUARANTEES a world war with either
> Russia or China or even both. I suspect you know full well that my
> and other proposals would lead either to success in preventing US
> involvement in a WW3, or at least toward the US being a stronger
> position in WW3. This ties in to your question of "saving los
> angeles or seoul" the generational decision would be to "save LA"
> the other choice "save seoul" (the boomer globalists/China and
> Russia democratizer advocates preference) can only be implemented
> by the US government using coercion.

As usual, I have no idea where you get this stuff. I did not
"advocate" either a North Korea strike or no North Korea strike. I
write Generational Dynamics analyses, and all I do is analyze the
likely consequences of either decision. So, from the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, a North Korea strike will lead to WW III, and
no North Korea strike will lead to WW III. I did not "advocate"
either of them.

If I did have to express my personal opinion and advocate one option
or the other, I really would have no idea which to recommend without a
lot of research. If it were up to me, I would get extensive military
and diplomatic analyses of the two options, and then I would try to
decide which option would be in the best interest of the United
States, and most likely to allow the US to survive WW III.

I'll say this: Since the world is headed for WW III anyway, then I
personally would lean towards whatever policy is least likely to be
viewed by historians as "stupid," and if possible I would prefer that
the United States not be blamed for starting WW III, if it's
possible to do so and still have the nation survive.

[John J. Xenakis]

(10-24-2017, 05:00 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > I think you're getting your Friedmans confused. This is George
> Friedman, not Thomas, and he's anything but left wing.

Sorry about that.

(10-24-2017, 05:00 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > The fact is, Xi's military is now comparable to - slightly weaker
> than - France's. His timetable is realistic; it takes a very long
> time to build up a navy, and he has a long way to go.

The timetable may be realistic in a technical sense, but not in a
political sense. The Chinese people consider themselves superior to
us and their system superior to ours. They consider the US and the
West to be weak and indecisive. They believe that they can defeat us
today, just as Japan thought they could beat us and the South thought
they could beat the North. These things are not rational decisions,
any more than the decision to have a sexual affair is rational, no
matter what the consequences. I also believe that Xi knows that the
Chinese people have no intention of waiting until 2050 to assert
their rightful place as rulers of the world.

(10-24-2017, 05:32 AM)Warren Dew Wrote: > You might not want to put too much trust in teachers who thought
> Communism was good and capitalism was bad.

> The fact is, National Socialism is not capitalist at all; it's
> socialist. In Germany, it happened to include former "captains of
> industry" in its chain of command, but the only difference from
> Communism was that the central planning apparatus was less tightly
> controlled by the dictator.

Sez u. People on the left absolutely HATE it when you say that
National Socialism is Socialism. This is particularly true today,
when people on the left want to call Trump the new Hitler, which is
wrong, when in fact the new Hitlers and would-be Hitlers are Xi
Jinping, Kim Jong-un, Nicolás Maduro, Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie
Sanders.

As I've written many times in the past, Marxist Socialism is
mathematically impossible as population grows. The number of
regulators grows exponentially faster than the population grows, so by
the time you get to, say, 50-100K people, everyone would have to be a
regulator.

A Socialist economy regulates as much as it can, while a Capitalist
economy debates how much regulation there should be. So it's hard to
define the difference between socialist and capitalist economies,
unless you want to go with something like "If X% or more of the
economy is regulated, then it's socialist, otherwise it's capitalist."

A Socialist economy during a non-Crisis era simply falls apart.
We've seen this happen in Russia, China, East Germany and Cuba,
for example. A country that tries to maintain Socialism gets
defeated by the mathematics of the situation, and the economy
simply gets frozen, as we've seen in all of these countries.

As the Crisis era approaches, the country can go in either of two
directions. The Socialist economy can simply collapse, as happened in
the above countries, and get replaced by capitalism or partial
capitalism. Or the leader can try to maintain the socialism into the
Crisis period -- through nationalism, xenophobia and racism -- blaming
the United States and other Western countries for their economic
troubles.

So instead of collapsing into Capitalism, that's the point when the
Socialist economy takes the second route -- National Socialism
(Nazism). So the reason that Xi's Socialism with Chinese
Characteristics for a New Era is identical to Hitler's National
Socialism is not because the minute details of the economy are the
same, but because in a generational Crisis era, the Socialism has been
combined with nationalism, xenophobia and racism. North Korea is
firmly in that direction, while Maduro is trying to create National
Socialism by blaming everything on the United States.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(10-25-2017, 10:42 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(10-24-2017, 01:20 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   Yet John X you advocate for the US doing nothing. If you actually
>   believed that China is a threat to the west; you would be
>   supporting an immediate strike on North Korea. Especially given
>   that this is a prime time to do so and the Norks have given clear
>   provocation. Yet you consistently advocate on your blogs doing
>   absolutely nothing, even accepting establishment by North Korea of
>   another nuclear arsenal pointed at the US augmenting the existing
>   arsenals of Russia and China. Its delusional to accept a North
>   Korean nuclear arsenal since it GUARANTEES a world war with either
>   Russia or China or even both. I suspect you know full well that my
>   and other proposals would lead either to success in preventing US
>   involvement in a WW3, or at least toward the US being a stronger
>   position in WW3. This ties in to your question of "saving los
>   angeles or seoul" the generational decision would be to "save LA"
>   the other choice "save seoul" (the boomer globalists/China and
>   Russia democratizer advocates preference) can only be implemented
>   by the US government using coercion.

As usual, I have no idea where you get this stuff.  I did not
"advocate" either a North Korea strike or no North Korea strike.  I
write Generational Dynamics analyses, and all I do is analyze the
likely consequences of either decision.  So, from the point of view of
Generational Dynamics, a North Korea strike will lead to WW III, and
no North Korea strike will lead to WW III.  I did not "advocate"
either of them.

If I did have to express my personal opinion and advocate one option
or the other, I really would have no idea which to recommend without a
lot of research.  If it were up to me, I would get extensive military
and diplomatic analyses of the two options, and then I would try to
decide which option would be in the best interest of the United
States, and most likely to allow the US to survive WW III.

I'll say this: Since the world is headed for WW III anyway, then I
personally would lean towards whatever policy is least likely to be
viewed by historians as "stupid," and if possible I would prefer that
the United States not be blamed for starting WW III, if it's
possible to do so and still have the nation survive.

But a north korea strike leads to us involvement in ww3 only when ww3 is in a very advanced state. No strike means the US would be involved in WW3 from day one.

[John J. Xenakis]

(10-25-2017, 11:15 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > But a north korea strike leads to us involvement in ww3 only when
> ww3 is in a very advanced state. No strike means the US would be
> involved in WW3 from day one.

I have no idea how you could possibly reach that conclusion without a
great deal of analysis on the military options. How could you
possibly know that a strike on North Korea wouldn't trigger WW III,
with US involvement, from day one? Would you try to kill Kim, and if,
how would you know where he is? Since the missiles are mobile, how
would you know where they are? Nuclear material could be moved
around. How would you know where it is? What's to stop China from
intervening? What's to stop the North Korean army from launching
missiles on Seoul? I would want detailed answers to all of these
questions from military and diplomatic experts, before making a
decision.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(10-25-2017, 11:28 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(10-25-2017, 11:15 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   But a north korea strike leads to us involvement in ww3 only when
>   ww3 is in a very advanced state. No strike means the US would be
>   involved in WW3 from day one.

I have no idea how you could possibly reach that conclusion without a
great deal of analysis on the military options.  How could you
possibly know that a strike on North Korea wouldn't trigger WW III,
with US involvement, from day one? Would you try to kill Kim, and if,
how would you know where he is?  Since the missiles are mobile, how
would you know where they are?  Nuclear material could be moved
around.  How would you know where it is?  What's to stop China from
intervening?  What's to stop the North Korean army from launching
missiles on Seoul?  I would want detailed answers to all of these
questions from military and diplomatic experts, before making a
decision.

Seoul would probably have be sacrificed, they would just have to accept bombardment. North Korea has a lot of launchers but a very limited amount of potentially ICBM capable launchers. The strike would focus and on the destruction of the long-range missiles as well as the nuclear production centers and fissile material stockpiles. This would be followed by a ground invasion.

[John J. Xenakis]

(10-25-2017, 11:58 AM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > Seoul would probably have be sacrificed, they would just have to
> accept bombardment. North Korea has a lot of launchers but a very
> limited amount of potentially ICBM capable launchers. The strike
> would focus and on the destruction of the long-range missiles as
> well as the nuclear production centers and fissile material
> stockpiles. This would be followed by a ground invasion.

And why wouldn't that lead immediately to WW III with American
involvement from day one?

[Cynic Hero '86]

(10-25-2017, 12:31 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(10-25-2017, 11:58 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   Seoul would probably have be sacrificed, they would just have to
>   accept bombardment. North Korea has a lot of launchers but a very
>   limited amount of potentially ICBM capable launchers. The strike
>   would focus and on the destruction of the long-range missiles as
>   well as the nuclear production centers and fissile material
>   stockpiles. This would be followed by a ground invasion.  

And why wouldn't that lead immediately to WW III with American
involvement from day one?

Because this would be separate war from the later WW3. Russian and Chinese acquiescence to the attack would be negotiated beforehand where they would be compensated geopolitically elsewhere.