Generational Dynamics World View

[Warren Dew]

(12-13-2017, 01:34 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote:

(12-13-2017, 01:14 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(12-13-2017, 09:28 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Selfish Boomers refuse to allow a strike on North Korea. The problem here is that the selfish boomers are emotionally attached to the idea of america as the world's policeman. This attachment causes boomers to reject any option that contradicts that role. The US has the military assets to carry out a preemptive strike on North Korea, the boomers just refuse to do so for ideological reasons.

Color me confused.  Wouldn't a strike on North Korea be exactly what a "world policeman" would do?

Only if we allow the NORKs to fire the first shot. A criminal is not a criminal unless he commits a crime. America has self-defense reasons to strike, but doing so the traditional "policeman" approach would eliminate any chance of achieving the element of surprise. On the other hand striking North Korea is risky but if successful arrives at lots of advantages especially if the strike in in conjunction with an agreement with China over Taiwan and a Yalu DMZ. The option of striking North Korea is not therefore a decision to continue a policeman approach but the beginning of a possible transformation into a garrison and/or an imperial state. For this reason boomers for purely ideological reasons, refuse to take the necessary actions.

Thanks for the clarification.  I think actual policemen often shoot first - and sometimes the gun they thought they saw in the other person's hand was actually a cell phone - but at least I understand what you mean.  I agree that a transition to a more overtly imperial America would be good, and I'd even agree I'm in the minority of boomers for thinking that.  Do you think most millenials would welcome an imperial America?

[Eric the Green]

(12-14-2017, 12:36 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(12-13-2017, 01:34 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote:

(12-13-2017, 01:14 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(12-13-2017, 09:28 AM)Cynic Hero Wrote: Selfish Boomers refuse to allow a strike on North Korea. The problem here is that the selfish boomers are emotionally attached to the idea of america as the world's policeman. This attachment causes boomers to reject any option that contradicts that role. The US has the military assets to carry out a preemptive strike on North Korea, the boomers just refuse to do so for ideological reasons.

Color me confused.  Wouldn't a strike on North Korea be exactly what a "world policeman" would do?

Only if we allow the NORKs to fire the first shot. A criminal is not a criminal unless he commits a crime. America has self-defense reasons to strike, but doing so the traditional "policeman" approach would eliminate any chance of achieving the element of surprise. On the other hand striking North Korea is risky but if successful arrives at lots of advantages especially if the strike in in conjunction with an agreement with China over Taiwan and a Yalu DMZ. The option of striking North Korea is not therefore a decision to continue a policeman approach but the beginning of a possible transformation into a garrison and/or an imperial state. For this reason boomers for purely ideological reasons, refuse to take the necessary actions.

Thanks for the clarification.  I think actual policemen often shoot first - and sometimes the gun they thought they saw in the other person's hand was actually a cell phone - but at least I understand what you mean.  I agree that a transition to a more overtly imperial America would be good, and I'd even agree I'm in the minority of boomers for thinking that.  Do you think most millenials would welcome an imperial America?

What to do about NORK is an interesting question I've engaged Warren on before. It's a tempting option to get rid of a totalitarian leader and his hypnotized country which threatens us and the free world.

An imperial America is what Republicans favor; Greens, Democrats and Libertarians don't. An imperial, garrison, Republican America acts preemptively to impose its will and standards on other countries.

As a "selfish" boomer I reject an imperial and garrison America, and collegial millennials do as well.

For a preemptive strike on the NORKS to work, it would have to be big and precise enough to wipe out not only all its nucs and potential nucs, and all of its government, but also all of its army, much of which is stationed just north of Seoul. It would have to kill many North Koreans in that process, probably, and some South Koreans too, probably.

If this is not quickly and totally successful, a NORK counterattack on South Korea, Japan and the USA would kill millions of ourselves and our allies.

The further risk is that NORK's ally, China, and possibly Russia as well, would respond by attacking the USA and its allies. China would not defend NORK if NORK struck the USA first, but WOULD defend NORK if it were attacked first. That's the deal. A preemptive strike on NORK cannot be carried out "in conjunction with" China.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Dec-17 World View -- Despite growing migration crises, European Union bitterly divided over policy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• European Union continues to face crises regarding migration
  
• Bitter divisions emerge at EU summit over migration issues
  

****
**** European Union continues to face crises regarding migration
****


Child migrant in Greek refugee camp (AFP)

After receiving millions of migrants in 2015 from the Mideast and
northern Africa, the European Union implemented some stopgap measures
to control the situation.

• To control the flow of migrants from Turkey to Greece, across
  the Aegean Sea, the EU reached a refugee deal with Turkey in 2016.
  Under the agreement, Turkey would patrol its Aegean Sea beaches and
  prevent migrants from leaving shore.
  
  
• To control the flow of migrants from Libya to Italy, crossing the
  Mediterranean Sea, Italy and the EU reached a deal with Libya's
  government and numerous local warlords to hold refugees in detention
  centers within Libya, rather than allow them to leave shore.

Each of these methods has been extremely successful in significantly
reducing the flow of migrants from Turkey and Libya, respectively.
However, in a sense they haven't solved the problem at all, but
instead stretched it out.

Furthermore, with winter approaching, the season of heaviest migration
is ending for now, but there will be a new surge of migration within
just a few months.

Current and approaching problems include the following:

• The EU-Turkey refugee deal hasn't been 100% effective.
  Greece's Lesbos Island alone has seen a massive influx in the last few
  months, as many as 100 new arrivals every day. A large proportion are
  women and children who require a high level of care. This has
  stretched resources to breaking point. The Moria refugee camp on
  Lesbos has a capacity of 2,000 people, but is currently holding 6,000
  people in extremely squalid, disgusting conditions.
  
  
• The EU-Libya deal has produced an enormous backlash. Refugees are
  being held in vastly overcrowded detention centers, in extremely
  squalid circumstances. The detention centers are so overcrowded that
  there has been a revival of a thriving slave trade that had been
  thought to have ended in the 1800s. Men, women and children are being
  sold at slave auctions for $400-800 apiece, for labor and sex. The EU
  is being blamed for this revival of the slave trade.
  
  
• The "migrant-smuggling trade" has become big business within the
  EU, greater than the arms smuggling trade, drug smuggling trade and
  even the human trafficking trade, Europol is actively investigating
  some 5,000 organized crime groups operating internationally. The
  problem is particularly severe in the Balkan countries, especially
  Romania.

Al-Jazeera and PRI and Amnesty International and EurActiv (20-Oct) and Reuters

****
**** Bitter divisions emerge at EU summit over migration issues
****

With the vast majority of migrants to Europe reaching Greece or Italy
first, these two countries have been overwhelmed. Both countries have
begged for help from the European Commission (EC), but there's been
little help beyond rhetoric.

In 2015, the EU adopted a migrant quota system last year that was
supposed to relocate 160,000 refugees from Greece and Italy to other
EU countries. The plan fell apart because few countries were willing
to accept their quotas, and Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic,
Poland and Romania refused to resettle any refugees at all. In the
end, only about 30,000 refugees were ever resettled under this plan.

At an EU summit on Thursday that was supposed to be a show of EU
solidarity and unity, especially with the Brexit talks going on. But
bitter political divisions erupted after EU President Donald Tusk
described the refugee quota program as "divisive and ineffective," and
called for it to be replaced.

According to a letter issued by Tusk, the migrant program will once
again reach crisis levels by June of next year:

<QUOTE>"After the unprecedented migratory pressure on its
external border in 2015, the European Union and its Member States
are gradually restoring control. However, the migration challenge
is here to stay for decades, especially due to the demographic
trends in Africa. Despite our efforts, the smugglers are working
energetically to exploit further vulnerabilities at our borders. A
crisis situation can reoccur and so in order to prepare ourselves,
we need to categorically strengthen our migration policy. To
achieve this, we should first look at what has and has not worked
in the past two years. On this basis, we should establish an
effective and sustainable migration policy based on secure
external borders and the prevention of mass arrivals. It also
requires finding a consensus by June 2018 on the internal
dimension of our migration policy, based on the concepts of
responsibility and solidarity."<END QUOTE>

Tusk says the existing quota system has to be scrapped and replaced by
a new system before June 2018. He concludes by saying:

<QUOTE>"On the basis of the discussion, Leaders will return
to these issues with a view to seeking a consensus in June
2018. If there is no solution by then, including on the issue of
mandatory quotas, the President of the European Council will
present a way forward."<END QUOTE>

The quota system has essentially been a fiction, but a fiction that
allowed the EU member countries to pretend to their domestic audience
that the problems had been solved. Germany, Italy and the Netherlands
have led criticism of Tusk's proposal. Greece's prime minister Alexis
Tsipras said that Tusk's comments were "aimless, ill-timed and
pointless." Italy's prime minister, Paolo Gentiloni, said, “We will
continue to insist that a commitment on the relocation of refugees is
needed.”

Three countries, Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic, came out in
favor of Tusk's proposal because they have no intention of
implementing a quota system anyway. In explaining why Poland would
not accept any refugees, Poland's prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki
said, "It is worth investing considerable amounts of money in helping
refugees in (regions) they are fleeing from. The help on the ground
there is much more effective."

The Czech Republic's prime minister Andrej Babis, said that "It won't
happen," and any attempt to impose "nonsensical" quotas in a majority
vote would only widen the divisions in the EU.

In response to Hungary's refusal to accept refugees, Dutch prime
minister Mark Rutte has described Hungary's prime minister Viktor
Orbán as ‘shameless’ for refusing to accept any refugees and
attempting to buy off his obligations with money. Guardian (London) and Reuters and Dutch News

Related Articles

• European-African summit calls for end to slavery auctions in Libya (01-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Italy is blamed for shocking increase in slave trade in Libya (22-Nov-2017)
  
  
• EU countries refuse to help Italy deal with massive refugee crisis (16-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Italy begs for help after 12,000 migrants arrive in four days (30-Jun-2017)
  
  
• France, Italy have bitter feud over migrants as quota system collapses (16-Jun-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Italy, Greece,
Turkey, Libya, Aegean Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Lesbos,
Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania,
Donald Tusk, Alexis Tsipras, Paolo Gentiloni,
Mateusz Morawiecki, Andrej Babis, Mark Rutte

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

To Xenakis, Pbrower, Eric and other selfish Boomers: Xers and Millennials want to fight FOR an imperial state they want to GO totalitarian we want a garrison state. Most Xers and Millennials despise boomers and DO NOT want to fight AGAINST totalitarianism. The younger generations despise human rights tyranny.

[John J. Xenakis]

(12-15-2017, 07:08 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > To Xenakis, Pbrower, Eric and other selfish Boomers: Xers and
> Millennials want to fight FOR an imperial state they want to GO
> totalitarian we want a garrison state. Most Xers and Millennials
> despise boomers and DO NOT want to fight AGAINST
> totalitarianism. The younger generations despise human rights
> tyranny.

You should be a standup comedian.

In fact maybe you are. Are you?

[Warren Dew]

(12-15-2017, 07:17 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(12-15-2017, 07:08 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   To Xenakis, Pbrower, Eric and other selfish Boomers: Xers and
>   Millennials want to fight FOR an imperial state they want to GO
>   totalitarian we want a garrison state. Most Xers and Millennials
>   despise boomers and DO NOT want to fight AGAINST
>   totalitarianism. The younger generations despise human rights
>   tyranny.  

You should be a standup comedian.

In maybe you are.  Are you?

What's amusing about that?

[John J. Xenakis]

(12-15-2017, 07:25 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(12-15-2017, 07:17 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(12-15-2017, 07:08 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   To Xenakis, Pbrower, Eric and other selfish Boomers: Xers and
>   Millennials want to fight FOR an imperial state they want to GO
>   totalitarian we want a garrison state. Most Xers and Millennials
>   despise boomers and DO NOT want to fight AGAINST
>   totalitarianism. The younger generations despise human rights
>   tyranny.  

You should be a standup comedian.

In fact maybe you are.  Are you?

What's amusing about that?

Sorry, you're right. I guess it's not funny after all.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-Dec-17 World View -- China-Australia relations plummet over China's illegal militarization of South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China-Australia relations plummet over China's illegal militarization of South China Sea
  
• China reacts contemptuously to Australia's foreign policy white paper
  
• China continues aggressive military buildup in the South China Sea
  
• Trump to target China's unfair trade policies in National Security Strategy
  

****
**** China-Australia relations plummet over China's illegal militarization of South China Sea
****


China's continuing military buildup on Fiery Cross island. This year alone, there was construction on buildings covering 27 acres, or about 110,000 square meters (AMTI/CSIS)

China's relations with Australia have taken a sharp downturn following
the November publication of Australia's "2017 Foreign Policy White
Paper," which harshly criticizes China's illegal militarization of the
South China Sea. The White Paper says the following:

<QUOTE>"The South China Sea is a major fault line in the
regional order. Australia is not a claimant state and does not
take sides in the competing claims. Like other non-claimant
states, however, we have a substantial interest in the stability
of this crucial international waterway, and in the norms and laws
that govern it.

We have urged all claimants to refrain from actions that could
increase tension and have called for a halt to land reclamation
and construction activities. Australia is particularly concerned
by the unprecedented pace and scale of China’s activities.
Australia opposes the use of disputed features and artificial
structures in the South China Sea for military purposes. We
support the resolution of differences through negotiation based on
international law.

All claimants should clarify the full nature and extent of their
claims according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of
the Sea (UNCLOS). The Government reaffirms its position that the
Permanent Court of Arbitration’s ruling on the Philippines South
China Sea Arbitration is final and binding on both
parties."<END QUOTE>

According to Australian analyst Nick Bisley, Australia in the past
year has become increasingly outspoken in its criticism of Beijing’s
behavior, particularly in the South China Sea, but also because of
China's interference in Australian domestic affairs. According to
Bisley:

<QUOTE>"But after I recently spent a week in China talking to
scholars, analysts and commentators, it is also clear that the
sourness in Canberra is being reciprocated. The mood among Chinese
elites ranges from head scratching puzzlement to outright
hostility. The people involved in these discussions are Australia
specialists, many have studied here, sent their children to study
here and have a generally positive disposition toward to the
country. Ordinarily, scholars from China tend to be cautious and
often voice their opinions obliquely. Not this time.

[Australia's] very public backing for the arbitration tribunal
decision and its repeated figuring in public pronouncements
appears to be a major concern. 'Australia is not a claimant, so
why does it make it such an issue?' the Chinese wonder. Indeed,
Australia has no disputes or conflicting security interests with
China yet it repeatedly emphasizes that China is making the region
less secure. This seems to get under the skin of many scholars and
commentators."<END QUOTE>

The issue, of course, is that China is an international criminal
according to a harsh July 2016 ruling by a Tribunal at the United
Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague. ( "13-Jul-16 World View -- Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea"
) The ruling eviscerated all of China's claims to the
South China Sea, and declared its construction of artificial islands
and military bases in international waters in the South China Sea to
be illegal. Australia Foreign Policy White Paper

****
**** China reacts contemptuously to Australia's foreign policy white paper
****

Pretty much any criticism of China infuriates them, but probably
nothing infuriates them more than any mention of the July 2016
Tribunal ruling, which essentially made China an international
criminal.

So if Australia is increasingly concerned about China's military threat
to the region and the world, then it's not surprising that Australia
has frequently made reference to the Tribunal ruling.

And if Australia is making frequent reference to the Tribunal ruling,
then it's not surprising China is directing more and more of
bottomless supply of fury at Australia. The Foreign Policy White
Paper has drawn a particularly large tsunami of contemptuous criticism
from China's media. These criticisms have called the white paper
"irresponsible." It labeled Australia a "distant propaganda outpost"
agitating against China.

It called Australia "ungrateful" for not appreciating all of the
economic benefits they've had because of China, and threatened that
China "could relegate ties with Australia to the back of the line, and
ignore its immature outburst."

What I found very interesting about Bisley's remarks is that the
Chinese are supposedly bewildered and puzzled by the criticism, since
Australia isn't directly involved in the South China Sea. It's
similar to when a man beats up his wife and then is bewildered and
puzzled why anyone else should care, since they aren't involved.

The Australians are of course concerned that China's illegal
militarization of the South China Sea could result in a regional war
in which Australia will be forced to participate. In fact, Australia
is directly involved in the South China Sea as $3 trillion of
commercial traffic passes through it each year. China's military
belligerence in the South China Sea is of concern to Australia, the
whole region, and the whole world.

For Chinese scholars, analysts and commentators to be bewildered and
puzzled by Australia's concern is just a sign of how delusional the
Chinese people are, something that I've written about many times as
typical in a generational Crisis era. In the case of the Tribunal
ruling, some of China's evidence to support it claims turns out to be
delusional or a complete hoax. Many Chinese people believe that their
dictatorship is inherently stronger than the "weak" Western
democracies, and that they'll win any war easily.

Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism.
China is becoming a military dictatorship, is annexing
other countries' territories as Nazi Germany did in Czechoslovakia and
Poland, and is adopting strong nationalist, xenophobic and racist
views targeting the Tibetans, Uighurs, Japanese, South Koreans,
Philippine people, and Vietnamese.

As I've written in the past, China is behaving in a highly emotional,
irrational, panicky, nationalistic manner, issuing delusional and
fabricated evidence to support claims that everybody knows are false
claims. China is preparing for a war that it believes it will win,
but instead will cause the worst catastrophe in history, to itself and
the entire world. China Daily
and Lowy Institute (Australia) and Australian Broadcasting

Related Articles

• Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism (24-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Australia's defense plans stress huge naval buildup targeting China (04-Mar-2016)
  
  
• Australian MP Clive Palmer shocks country with anti-China rant (21-Aug-2014)
  
  
• China displays belligerence, militarism in WW II victory parade (04-Sep-2015)
  
  
• China repudiates its Hong Kong 'One Country, Two Systems' agreement with Britain (01-Jul-2017)
  

****
**** China continues aggressive military buildup in the South China Sea
****

China's aggressive military buildup in the South China Sea has been
out of the news for a while, but not because it hasn't been occurring.

New imagery released by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative
(AMTI) show that China has been aggressively implementing illegal
offensive and defensive weapons systems on their artificial islands.
According to AMTI:

<QUOTE>"AMTI has identified all the permanent facilities on
which China completed or began work since the start of the
year. These include buildings ranging from underground storage
areas and administrative buildings to large radar and sensor
arrays. These facilities account for about 72 acres, or 290,000
square meters, of new real estate at Fiery Cross, Subi, and
Mischief Reefs in the Spratlys, and North, Tree, and Triton
Islands in the Paracels. This does not include temporary
structures like storage containers or cement plants, or work other
than construction, such as the spreading of soil and planting of
grass at the new outposts."<END QUOTE>

According to AMTI, "China is poised to substantially boost its radar
and signals intelligence capabilities." There's an irony here that
this is the same kind of capability that comes with America's Terminal
High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile defense systems.
China has been infuriated that there are THAAD systems deployed in
South Korea, but at least those are legal. China's radar systems in
the South China Sea are a violation of international law. Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (CSIS/AMTI) and Reuters

Related Articles

• Chinese vessels massing near Philippines island in South China Sea (20-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Philippines humiliates China in harsh Hague Tribunal ruling over South China Sea (13-Jul-2016)
  
  
• China's 'ironclad proof' of South China Sea claims revealed as hoax (22-Jun-2016)
  
  
• South China Sea: China's list of supporters is found to be delusional (24-Jun-2016)
  

****
**** Trump to target China's unfair trade policies in National Security Strategy
****

President Donald Trump will target China by alleging unfair trade
policies in a National Security Strategy (NSS) to be released on
Monday. Trump will accuse China of exploiting the international trade
system. According to the current draft:

<QUOTE>"The United States helped to expand the liberal
economic trading system to countries that did not share our values
in the hopes that these states would liberalize their economic and
political practices, and provide commensurate benefits to the
United States. Experience now suggests that these countries
distorted and undermined key economic institutions without
prompting significant reform of their economies or
politics."<END QUOTE>

Since taking office, Trump has sought to maintain friendly relations
with China, even treating China's president Xi Jinping as a kind of
BFF, in order to elicit cooperation on the North Korea nuclear missile
crisis.

This new NSS statement appears to be at least a partial U-turn on that
policy, at a time when relations between Australia and China are
reaching a new low. Free Beacon


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Australia, China, South China Sea,
Nick Bisley, Fiery Cross reef,
United Nations Permanent Court of Arbitration, PCA,
Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, AMTI,
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD, South Korea

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

Threats From Russia, China and North Korea. Yet boomers consistently reject the implementation of a garrison State. The boomers disgusting ideals are costing the western world greatly.

[Cynic Hero '86]

Boomers have no right to tell Xers and Millies to be pillars of a democracy they despise when the boomers themselves cowardly ran away from their war during the 1960s. Instead the boomers actively blocks the way for any building of society and instead steers us toward a direction in which the war phase of the crisis is essentially a re-run of the last crisis war, simply because the boomer astonishingly thinks we weren't ideological enough in war strategy during WW2. On the contrary the facts show that WW2 probably would have ended shortly after the battles of Normandy and Saipan in mid-1944 rather than the historical end dates in mid-1945 had the US not been wedded to the childish policy of unconditional surrender and regime change. The Boomer's nonsensical conclusion is that we should have invaded and democratized Russia and China after the war rather than settling down for the cold war. Can you selfish boomers imagine how BORING the current saeculum would have been without the communist USSR, Red China and the Arab and Asian nationalist States?

[John J. Xenakis]

(12-16-2017, 07:47 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > On the contrary the facts show that WW2 probably would have ended
> shortly after the battles of Normandy and Saipan in mid-1944
> rather than the historical end dates in mid-1945 had the US not
> been wedded to the childish policy of unconditional surrender and
> regime change.

No that's not true. You're thinking of a non-crisis war. A
generational crisis war like WW II is a fight to the death, and does
not end in any sort of compromise or settlement. It requires an
"explosive climax," something so horrific that it stops both losers
and winners from fighting further, makes them vow to spend their whole
lives making sure it doesn't happen again. WW II could not end before
such events as the firebombing of Dresden, the fall of Berlin, and the
nuking of Japan.

"the facts show that ... probably" -- what weasel words -- can I call
you a stand-up comedian yet?

[Cynic Hero '86]

(12-16-2017, 08:42 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(12-16-2017, 07:47 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   On the contrary the facts show that WW2 probably would have ended
>   shortly after the battles of Normandy and Saipan in mid-1944
>   rather than the historical end dates in mid-1945 had the US not
>   been wedded to the childish policy of unconditional surrender and
>   regime change.

No that's not true.  You're thinking of a non-crisis war.  A
generational crisis war like WW II is a fight to the death, and does
not end in any sort of compromise or settlement.  It requires an
"explosive climax," something so horrific that it stops both losers
and winners from fighting further, makes them vow to spend their whole
lives making sure it doesn't happen again.  WW II could not end before
such events as the firebombing of Dresden, the fall of Berlin, and the
nuking of Japan.

"the facts show that ... probably" -- what weasel words -- can I call
you a stand-up comedian yet?

Without unconditional surrender Hitler would have been assassinated either by the army or even by the nazis themselves. Japanese leaders acknowledged behind closed doors that they lost the war after saipan and marianas turkey shoot. The US historically however insisted on unconditional surrender and regime change which the militarists adamantly resisted because they would have been executed by the allies after the war. Without unconditional surrender they would have had no reason to attempt a fight to the end.

I've noticed you completely ignored my second point about the post-WW2 world a non-completely destroyed Germany and Japan would have been useful buffers against the soviets. Thus we would not have had to fight the cold war. The Dominant boomer Conclusion that we should have worked to democratize Russia and China is what is utter nonsense. Once again, can Boomers imagine how BORING the current saeculum would have been without the Communist USSR, Communist China, and the Arab and Asian nationalist states.

[John J. Xenakis]

(12-16-2017, 09:02 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > I've noticed you completely ignored my second point about the
> post-WW2 world a non-completely destroyed Germany and Japan would
> have been useful buffers against the soviets. Thus we would not
> have had to fight the cold war. The Dominant boomer Conclusion
> that we should have worked to democratize Russia and China is what
> is utter nonsense. Once again, can Boomers imagine how BORING the
> current saeculum would have been without the Communist USSR,
> Communist China, and the Arab and Asian nationalist states.

You must be thinking about a different WW II than I am. In the WW II
that I'm thinking of, Japan and Germany were NOT completely destroyed,
as can be easily proven by the fact that both countries still exist
today.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(12-16-2017, 09:16 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(12-16-2017, 09:02 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   I've noticed you completely ignored my second point about the
>   post-WW2 world a non-completely destroyed Germany and Japan would
>   have been useful buffers against the soviets. Thus we would not
>   have had to fight the cold war. The Dominant boomer Conclusion
>   that we should have worked to democratize Russia and China is what
>   is utter nonsense. Once again, can Boomers imagine how BORING the
>   current saeculum would have been without the Communist USSR,
>   Communist China, and the Arab and Asian nationalist states.

You must be thinking about a different WW II than I am.  In the WW II
that I'm thinking of, Japan and Germany were NOT completely destroyed,
as can be easily proven by the fact that both countries still exist
today.

They were destroyed as great powers, After the war the US was the only country that was capable of counter-balancing Stalinist Russia, hence the cold war.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 17-Dec-17 World View -- Chinese experts warn China to prepare for nuclear war in North Korea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Chinese experts warn China to prepare for nuclear war in North Korea
  
• Concerns grow over the threat of a North Korean nuclear reactor disaster
  

****
**** Chinese experts warn China to prepare for nuclear war in North Korea
****


A North Korean soldier squats along the Yalu River in Sinuiju, North Korea, which borders Dandong in China's Liaoning province, Sept 9, 2017.

Chinese government advisers are warning that "North Korea is a time
bomb," and China must prepare for an unpreventable nuclear war on the
Korean peninsula. China used to be able to control the North Korean
government, but it was losing control, and "Northeast China should
mobilize defenses for war."

Shi Yinhong, a university professor that advises the Beijing
government, says that nuclear war is inevitable:

<QUOTE>"Conditions on the peninsula now make for the biggest
risk of a war in decades.

North Korea is a time bomb. We can only delay the explosion,
hoping that by delaying it, a time will come to remove the
detonator."<END QUOTE>

The logic behind this claim is similar to the same logic that many
American analysts have been using, and the same logic that I've been
writing about. North Korea will not be dissuaded from its goal of
having an arsenal of nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles pointed at the
United States, which he will use in an extortion to gain control of
South Korea, and he will sell the nuclear weapon and ballistic missile
technology to rogue states like Iran and Venezuela. Trump will not
allow this to happen, and so one way or another a war will begin in
the next 6-18 months.

Nanjing University professor Zhu Feng said that no matter how minor
the possibility, China should be prepared psychologically and
practically for “a catastrophic nuclear conflict, nuclear fallout or a
nuclear explosion":

<QUOTE>"Why do we always act like ostriches? Why do we always
believe a war won’t occur?

What China needs is a sense of urgency about its declining
influence in strategy related to the peninsula and the way it
brings down China’s status and role in East Asian security
issues."<END QUOTE>

Chinese analysts give as a principal cause of the imminent war the
fact that the US and South Korea hold joint military exercises.
South China Morning Post and Newsweek and Quartz and South China Morning Post (9-Dec)

****
**** Concerns grow over the threat of a North Korean nuclear reactor disaster
****

A recent video went viral showing North Korea's child dictator Kim
Jong-un standing next to an untested liquid-fueled missile. The video
prompted a torrent of tweets expressing regret that Kim’s lit
cigarette had not "solved the problem for us."

The video illustrates the fact that North Korea does not take
seriously the need to operate its nuclear reactors safely, as Western
nations and China do. Even a small nuclear accident that could
normally be contained could turn into a catastrophic disaster if North
Korea did not respond quickly and correctly.

Even a small nuclear accident would generate widespread panic as word
began to leak out, because of North Korea's lack of transparency and
the fact that they would deny that anything is happening. In the case
of Japan's Fukushima nuclear reactor disaster, Japan was completely
transparent about what was going on, but there was still public panic.
After a disaster in North Korean, the regime would suppress all
reporting of the incident, and they would probably refuse help from
outside countries. The resulting panic would spread into China, South
Korea and Japan. 38 North and South China Morning Post

Related Articles

• China's envoy to North Korea fails to end nuclear crisis (21-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Chinese geologists warn of looming nuclear disaster from North Korean tests (01-Nov-2017)
  
  
• China's tripwires for invading North Korea (14-Apr-2017)
  
  
• New book, 'Unhappy China,' stokes Chinese nationalism and anti-Americanism. (12-Apr-2009)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, North Korea, Kim Jong-un,
South Korea, Zhu Feng

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[Cynic Hero '86]

Disgusting Boomers destroy Freedom and Liberty in the name of democracy and world government. Boomers are violating Xers and Millies rights to have a government not shackled by human rights tyranny. Boomers are violating Xers and Millies rights to Choose a garrison state and to choose the Military Rules of engagement the young prefer. Tyrannical Boomers claim to love democracy yet routinely violate the founding document of that democracy, the constitution.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-Dec-17 World View -- Communists score major election wins in Nepal, possibly moving country towards China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Communists score major election wins in Nepal, possibly moving country towards China
  
• Nepal reacts to India's bungled meddling over the new constitution
  

****
**** Communists score major election wins in Nepal, possibly moving country towards China
****


Zhangmu in Tibet, in China, just across from the Nepal border (Bob Witlox/Flickr)

The country Nepal is a strip of land, about 500 miles long and 100
miles wide, that separates a part of the border between India from
China's Tibet. With China and India on the verge of a border war,
Nepal becomes extremely important strategically to both India and
China.

Nepal recently held elections under a new constitution adopted in
2015. These elections will elect 275 members to the House of
Representatives and 550 representatives to the assemblies of the seven
newly-created provinces.

The elections have been won overwhelmingly by a "Left Alliance" of two
hyphenated communist parties -- the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified
Marxist-Leninist (UML) and Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Center
(MC). These two parties have been locked in adversarial conflict and
rivalry for years, but they've put aside their differences in a
marriage of convenience to form a governing coalition. The Left
Alliance will control not only the national government, but also six
of the seven provinces.

Analysts say that the emergence of the Left Alliance does not
necessarily mean that Nepal's voters prefer communism to democracy.
Instead, the vote express a new nationalism which has three key
components – the search for political stability and peace, the demand
for fast and comprehensive development and assertion against India.

For centuries, Nepal was governed by a Hindu monarchy with close ties
to India. In 2001, Crown Prince Dipendra got drunk at a party and
gunned down the entire royal family, and then killed himself.
Dipendra's motive turned out to be that he had wanted to marry his
girlfriend, Devyani Rana, but his parents had refused. This triggered
a renewal of a Maoist insurgency that had begun in the 1990s.

This is Nepal's first free election in a secular republic, replacing
the monarchy with an elected government. My República (Nepal) and
The Wire (India) and Al Jazeera

****
**** Nepal reacts to India's bungled meddling over the new constitution
****

Nepal has long been one of the world's poorest countries, and 2015 was
a year with one major disaster after another.

Two massive earthquakes struck Nepal on April 25 and May 12, 2015.
More than 8,800 people were killed, and 600,000 homes were flattened.
Millions of people were left with inadequate food, clean water and
shelter. Nepal still has not recovered from that disaster.

The earthquake came at a time when the government was in a state of
almost total paralysis, because the constitutional transition Hindu
monarchy to a secular republic was in process, triggering massive
demonstrations, especially by the Madhesis, a mostly Hindu ethnic
group in Nepal's Tarai region on the border with India.

The new constitution was adopted on September 17. On September 24,
the Madhesis began massive demonstrations, blockading the truck
traffic passing between India and Nepal. This was a disaster for
Nepal's economy, which depends on imports from India for many goods,
including petroleum and cooking gas, forcing many manufacturers to
shut down.

Nepal blamed India for the border blockade, saying that India's prime
minister Narendra Modi was using the blockade to force Nepal to
eliminate clauses in the new constitution that the Madhesis claim
discriminate against them. Some people say that the recent victory of
the Left Alliance was a reaction to India's bungling two years ago in
handling the blockade.

Nepal media are debating whether the election results mean that Nepal
is moving away from India towards China. China has been trying to
improve its influence in Nepal since the removal of the Hindu
monarchy, and so the victory of the Left Alliance represents a kind of
victory. It also allows politicians, even those who favor India, to
say that the Left victory is a victory for nationalism and
independence from the "Indian bully." However, the Madhesis and
other Hindu ethnic groups form 40% of the population, and they
would oppose choosing China over India.

Also, Nepal can't go too far in alienating India, because of the
economic dependences. Nepal is a landlocked country, and the only way
to transfer goods to or from the Indian Ocean is through India and the
port of Vishakhapatnam on the Bay of Bengal.

Realizing the alarm that many people feel over their victory, the Left
Alliance has released a statement:

<QUOTE>"As per the directions made by the constitution of the
Nepal, we will develop the relation with friendly nations
especially the neighboring countries and the international unions
and organizations on the basis of independent foreign
policy."<END QUOTE>

The statement added, "We, the left power, are committed to form a
stable government and fulfill the promises which we made before."
My República (Nepal) and ANI (India)

Related Articles

• Nepal's fuel deal with China collapses, as India border blockade worsens (30-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Nepal turns to China as border tensions with India increase (08-Nov-2015)
  
  
• Violence continues for fourth day in Haiti (11-Dec-2010)
  
  
• Maoist rebels bringing chaos to Nepal and region (09-Apr-2006)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nepal, India, China, Left Alliance,
Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist, UML,
Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Center MC,
Crown Prince Dipendra, Devyani Rana,
Madhesis, Narendra Modi, Vishakhapatnam port

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-Dec-17 World View -- China resumes military buildup in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• China resumes military buildup in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau
  
• Foreign ministers of China and India meet, and discuss Doklam
  
• China's media predict nuclear war in North Korea by March
  

****
**** China resumes military buildup in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau
****


New satellite images show Chinese road construction in Doklam region (NDTV)

New satellite images of the region surrounding Bhutan's Doklam Plateau
reveal that China is resuming its military buildup, after pulling back
from a military standoff with India during the summer. There are
reports that China has positioned in the Doklam region more than 1,000
soldiers who are likely to remain in the area throughout winter for
the first time. China built two helicopter platforms, dozens of
houses and stores, and upgraded roads to cope with the very severe
winter.

The military confrontation began suddenly and unexpectedly on June 16,
when China sent troops and construction workers to begin road
construction in Bhutan's Doklam Plateau, with the apparent intention
of annexing the region. At Bhutan's request, India sent in troops to
prevent the annexation.

There were no bullets fired, but there were reports of Indian and
Chinese soldiers bumping each other with their chests to push each
other back. The descriptions of the situation in the Indian media
were restrained, to avoid inflaming the situation. The Chinese media
were the opposite, with extremely belligerent and vitriolic editorials
setting deadlines for India, threatening a Chinese military invasion
of India that would destroy India's army, and warning India that its
defeat would be even worse than India's defeat in a 1962 border war.

So when the crisis ended just as suddenly and unexpectedly on August
28, and analysts could only guess at the reasons.
During those 73 days, it appeared that China and India
were on the verge of a major border war, and it seemed that India
would not back down for any reason. Part of the speculation for why
China backed down was that a conflict would spill over into Kashmir or
into the Indian Ocean, and China did not want a war at that time just
before an international meeting to be held in Beijing, to be followed
by the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee
is scheduled for October 19.

The prosaic explanation was that China had backed down so that they
could build up their military forces and try again. China says
that the new military infrastructure and troops are for peaceful
purposes, just as they claim for the South China Sea.

India's Lt Gen Abhay Krishna of the Eastern Command on Saturday said
the Army is totally geared up to face any situation in the Doklam
sector:

<QUOTE>"The Indian Army is always in very high spirits, we
are always ready to take on any mischief by anybody. I am not
going to name anybody specifically. Territorial integrity is
ingrained in our blood and for that we will go to any extent to
ensure the territorial integrity."<END QUOTE>

Sputnik News (Moscow) and New Delhi TV and The Diplomat and Indian Express

Related Articles

• Analysts draw lessons from the China vs India Doklam border standoff (24-Sep-2017)
  
  
• China and India prepare for border war at Doklam Plateau (12-Aug-2017)
  

****
**** Foreign ministers of China and India meet, and discuss Doklam
****


After their meeting, China's foreign minister Wang Yi used his arm to comfort India's foreign minister, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj (Indian Express)

Last week, the foreign ministers of India and China met, and discussed
Doklam. India's External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj held talks
with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi.

After the December 11 meeting, Swaraj said:

<QUOTE>"Foreign Minister Wang Yi and I agreed that we should
further strengthen our mutual trust to develop a better
understanding between the two parties. And it will be better to
meet again, and without agenda, which will help us to expand our
mutual understanding."<END QUOTE>

However, Wang Yi's statement was considerably more blunt:

<QUOTE>"The matter was finally settled peacefully through
diplomatic means, reflecting the maturing of bilateral
relations. However, lessons should be learned and should be
avoided again."<END QUOTE>

What lessons was Wang referring to that should be learned? In a
speech last week, Wang said:

<QUOTE>"We handled the Indian border troops' trespass into
China's Dong Lang (Dokalam) area in our national interest, on just
grounds and with restraint.

Through diplomatic means, we engaged with the Indian side and it
withdrew its equipment and personnel."<END QUOTE>

A web site reader posted a comment about a time when he asked
a Chinese girl whether America and China were going to war:

<QUOTE>"I met a Chinese person at Toastmasters. I asked her
this. Her reply was along the lines of 'There will be no
war. America just has to grow up and learn its
place.'"<END QUOTE>

Another web site reader responded to my observation that any criticism
of China infuriates them. He wrote: "Spades don't like to be called a
Spade. And the main reason they are so touchy is because they think
they are the supreme, superior race. So the article's comparison of
China to German Nazi National Socialism is spot on." Indian Express

Related Articles

• Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism (24-Oct-2017)
  
  
• As other Asian nations back down, India and Vietnam become allies confronting China (01-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Dalai Lama to visit region of northeast India claimed by China (03-Apr-2017)
  

****
**** China's media predict nuclear war in North Korea by March
****

A couple of days ago, I quoted Chinese experts who warn China to prepare for nuclear war in North Korea.

On Sunday, an article in China state media Global Times quoted
Lieutenant General Wang Hongguang as follows:

<QUOTE>"The war on the Korean Peninsula might break out
anytime between now and March next year," Wang said, stressing
that "China should be psychologically prepared for a potential
Korean war, and the Northeast China regions should be mobilized
for that."

"Such mobilization is not to launch a war, but for defensive
purposes," he added.<END QUOTE>

There are two things of note:

• According to Wang, the war is expected before March.
  
  
• Wang does not say that China would oppose the US
  militarily.

In my article, I estimated that a war between the US and North Korea
would begin within 6-18 months, though 3 months is a possibility. The
time frame probably depends more on what North Korea does than
anything else.

Wang suggests that the war would be localized. That may be true for a
while, but once these things start, it would start spreading. I would
expect it to reach Europe within at most two years. Global Times

Related Articles

• Chinese experts warn China to prepare for nuclear war in North Korea (17-Dec-2017)
  
  
• China-Australia relations plummet over China's illegal militarization of South China Sea (16-Dec-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, China, India, Doklam Plateau, Bhutan,
Abhay Krishna, Sushma Swaraj, Wang Yi, Wang Hongguang

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Dec-17 World View -- Thousands of Kurds in violent protests against Kurdistan government in northern Iraq

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Thousands of Kurds in violent protests against Kurdistan government in northern Iraq
  
• Iraq's Baghdad government splits over role of Iran-backed Shia militias
  

****
**** Thousands of Kurds in violent protests against Kurdistan government in northern Iraq
****


Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani issued a religious guidance that called on the Iraqi people to take up arms against ISIS in 2014. Tens of thousands of Shia people answered his call. (AFP)

Thousands of Kurds attacked several offices of the main political
parties of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) on Monday and
Tuesday. Most of the rioters were teachers, students and civil
servants, protesting austerity and unpaid public sector salaries.

Iraqi Kurds have never gotten along well with any of their neighbors.
During Iraq's last generational crisis war, the Iran/Iraq war of the
1980s, the climax occurred in 1988 when Saddam Hussein used WMDs
(poison gas) on both the Kurds and the Iranians. Because the
Kurds want to form an independent Kurdistan, containing pieces
from Turkey and Iran as well as Iraq, all three countries have
cooperated in putting sanctions on the Kurds.

Iraq's government in Baghdad allowed the Kurds to self-govern
in some limited areas with the formation of the Kurdistan
Regional Government (KRG) in Iraqi Kurdistan, the region of
Iraq predominantly populated by Kurds.

When the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh)
captured Mosul in 2014, and took control of much of Iraq, the
peshmerga, the Kurdish militias, were a crucial part of the military
effort to recapture Iraq from ISIS.

However, the Kurds were never rewarded for their bravery. After Mosul
was recaptured earlier this year, the KRG decided to a referendum on
seceding from Iraq and forming an independent Kurdish state. This
referendum was opposed almost universally in the international
community, and it particularly alarmed all of Kurdistan's neighbors.
So the Kurds might have gotten some economic benefits and some
additional self-governance, but after the referendum passed on
September 25, everybody seemed to ask, "You helped us beat ISIS, but
what have you done for me lately?" Iraq, Turkey and Iran cooperated
in putting harsh economic sanctions on Kurdistan, and Iraq launched a
military operation that recaptured areas that the Kurds were occupying
following the war against ISIS.

The sanctions caused Kurdistan's economy to suffer, and the military
operation triggered fights between factions among the Kurds. The
fighting has now gone on for two days. Since Iraq is in a
generational Awakening era, just one generation past the Iran/Iraq
war, there are many survivors of the war that do not want so see the
current situation spiral into a bigger civil war. Rudaw (Kurdistan)
and Reuters and Rudaw (Kurdistan)
and The National (UAE)

****
**** Iraq's Baghdad government splits over role of Iran-backed Shia militias
****

Iraq's Shia militias, the Hashd al-Shaabi militia or Popular
Mobilization Forces (PMF), with links to Iran, were also crucial to
the defeat of ISIS in the last two years. However, the PMF were
accused of massive human rights abuses, targeting ordinary Sunni
citizens in several cities where they fought to expel ISIS.

Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s top Shiite cleric, in 2014
called on the Iraqi people to take up arms against ISIS. Tens of
thousands of Shia people answered his call that then resulted in the
birth of the Hashd al-Shaabi.

Now that ISIS has been defeated, al-Sistani is praising the "historic
achievement" of the Hashd forces, but is now saying that the time has
come to merge the Hashd militias into the regular Iraqi army.

The Hashd have 140,000 registered fighters which is about half the
size of the Iraqi army. Al-Sistani said that it is the duty of the
state to now take care of the Hashd fighters financially and
otherwise, and the families of those who lost their loved ones.

This call has renewed the political conflict between the powerful Shia
cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, and the former prime minister Nouri Al-Maliki.
Supporters of the two held huge protests that turned violent
earlier this year.

Al-Sadr, who has close links to the ayatollahs in Iran, supports the
call. However, al-Maliki, who is building a coalition in preparation
for next year's elections, wants to keep them out of the army, so that
they will support him next year. If they were in the army, they would
be prohibited from having political ties.

Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, and is in a period of massive
political chaos similar to their last generational Awakening era in
the 1930s, as I described in my 2007 article, "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq." However, just as the political chaos of the 1930s
did not spiral into war, it won't do so today either. Rudaw (Kurdistan)

Related Articles

• Iraq: Supporters of al-Sadr and al-Maliki turn again to violence in Baghdad (12-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Confusion and chaos in Iraq mark the operation to free Mosul from ISIS (30-Oct-2016)
  
  
• The al-Askariya Shrine in Samarra, Iraq, is bombed again (14-Jun-2007)
  
  
• Reader question on Iran and Iraq's Muqtada al-Sadr (04-May-2016)
  
  
• Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq (01-Apr-2007)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Saddam Hussein, Mosul,
Kurdistan, Kurdistan Regional Government, KRG, Iran, Turkey,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Hashd al-Shaabi militia, Popular Mobilization Forces, PMF,
Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Moqtada al-Sadr, Nouri Al-Maliki

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-Dec-17 World View -- Burma (Myanmar) blocks UN Rohingya investigator. as genocide charges are raised

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Burma (Myanmar) blocks UN investigator from investigating atrocities against Rohingyas
  
• Burma officials, including Aung San Suu Kyi, may face genocide charges
  

****
**** Burma (Myanmar) blocks UN investigator from investigating atrocities against Rohingyas
****


Rohingya boys in Burma search through the ashes of their village after it was burned down by Buddhists (Reuters)

Yanghee Lee, the United Nations' special investigator on the Rohingya
crisis in Burma (Myanmar), has been blocked from doing any further
investigation by officials from Burma. She had previously made
several invited visits to Burma as part of her investigation, and was
recently invited to come again in January.

After being barred on Wednesday, Lee said that "there must be
something terribly awful happening in Rakhine," referring to years of
genocidal attacks on Muslims, especially Muslim Rohingyas, by
Buddhists, led by led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu and his "969
movement," where 969 is a historic Buddhist sign, referring to the
nine qualities of Buddha, the six qualities of Buddha's teaching, and
nine qualities of the Buddhist community. "969" is supposedly a sign
of peace and happiness, but Wirathu and the Burmese have turned "969"
into a sign of genocide and ethnic cleansing. Buddha must be turning
over in his grave.

In a statement, Lee said:

<QUOTE>"I am puzzled and disappointed by this decision by the
Myanmar Government. This declaration of non-cooperation with my
mandate can only be viewed as a strong indication that there must
be something terribly awful happening in Rakhine, as well as in
the rest of the country.

[After promising continued cooperation two weeks ago,] now I am
being told that this decision to no longer cooperate with me is
based on the statement I made after I visited the country in
July. ...

The Government has repeatedly denied violations of human rights
are occurring throughout Myanmar, particularly in Rakhine
state. They have said that they have nothing to hide, but their
lack of cooperation with my mandate and the fact-finding mission
suggests otherwise."<END QUOTE>

What Lee said in July was that it was "unacceptable" that people
meeting her were watched and even followed by agents.

Lee's official title is UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of
human rights in Myanmar. She has visited Burma six times since she
began her mandate in June 2014, although the government has
consistently refused access to some areas. United Nations
and Reuters and Al-Jazeera (22-July)

****
**** Burma officials, including Aung San Suu Kyi, may face genocide charges
****

Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein, the UN's High Commissioner for Human Rights,
says that after years Buddhist slaughter, rape and ethnic cleansing of
Rohingya Muslims, it's possible that Burma's leader, including Nobel
Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, may face genocide charges, as
well as Gen Aung Min Hlaing, the head of Burma's army.

Since 2011, I've been using the word "genocide" in an informal sense
to describe the atrocities that Burmese Buddhists are conducting
against Burma's Muslims, especially the Rohingya Muslims.

By 2013, thousands of Buddhists were making frenzied attacks on
Muslims in cities across Burma, with multiple rapes, murders and
atrocities, killing dozens. In one publicized event in the town of
Meiktila, Buddhists took 20 Muslim boys from a madrassa, and hacked
them to death, soaked their bodies in petrol and set them alight,
leaving a blackened patch of ground.

This was a major milestone in Burma's genocide of Muslims, similar to
Kristallnacht, when the Nazi Germans made the same kinds of frenzied,
uncontrolled attacks on Jews in 1938.

These attacks were led by racist Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu, who
calls himself the "Buddhist Osama bin Laden." He was pictured on the
cover of Time Magazine on July 1, 2013, with a caption, "The Face of
Buddhist Terror." He advocates the extermination of all Muslims in
Burma, and many Buddhists are killing, raping and mutilating Muslims,
burning down their homes and villages, because Wirathu tells them to
do it.

During 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017, the massive genocidal attacks by
Burma's army on Rohingyas have driven over 600,000 Rohingyas into
Bangladesh, killing, raping and mutilating them, burning down their
homes and villages.

The United Nations became particularly alarmed in August 2017 when
some Rohingya activists attacked some Burma border posts, triggering a
massive increase in the genocide and ethnic cleansing of Rohingyas.
An analogy in the US would be that after Black Lives Matter killed a
policemen, if the US army started entering black neighborhoods and
killing, torturing and raping all the black civilian residents,
including women and children.

Burma's Buddhist genocide of Muslims is the second-worst genocide so
far this century, the worst being Bashar al-Assad's Shia/Alawite
genocide of Sunnis in Syria. Aung San Suu Kyi is turning out to be
the Hitler of Burma's genocide.

Although I've used the word "genocide" informally, Zeid Ra'ad
al-Hussein is suggesting that it may actually be proven formally in a
court of law:

<QUOTE>"For obvious reasons, if you're planning to commit
genocide you don't commit it to paper and you don't provide
instructions.

The thresholds for proof are high. But it wouldn't surprise me in
the future if a court were to make such a finding on the basis of
what we see."<END QUOTE>

Zeid said that he spoke to Suu Kyi in February 2017, and asked her to
stop the atrocities:

<QUOTE>"I appealed to her to bring these military operations
to an end. I appealed to her emotional standing ... to do
whatever she could to bring this to a close, and to my great
regret it did not seem to happen."<END QUOTE>

Ethnic cleansing "clearance operations" by Burma's (Myanmar's) army
have driven some 620,000 ethnic Rohingyas from Rakhine State into
Bangladesh, threatening to destabilize the entire region. BBC and News Corp (Australia) and Straits Times

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KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Burma, Myanmar, Rohingyas, Bangladesh,
Yanghee Lee, Ashin Wirathu, "969 movement", Buddha,
Zeid Ra'ad al-Hussein, Aung San Suu Kyi, Aung Min Hlaing

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