Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-Feb-18 World View -- Concerns grow over China's covert infiltration into New Zealand's government

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Concerns grow over China's covert infiltration into New Zealand's government
  
• New Zealand MP Jian Yang faces heavy scrutiny from covert links to China's military
  
• Anne-Marie Brady's report, 'Magic Weapons', documents China's global influence strategy
  

****
**** Concerns grow over China's covert infiltration into New Zealand's government
****


Around 50,000 Chinese tourists will visit New Zealand in the next few days to celebrate their Chinese Lunar New Year (stuff.co.nz)

Public concerns in New Zealand about the increasing covert
infiltration of pro-Chinese planted officials in the governments of
New Zealand, Australia, and other countries were raised on Thursday by
revelations that she and her employer have been targets of harassment,
break-ins, and burglaries.

In September of last year, professor Anne-Marie Brady of New Zealand's
University of Canterbury published a detailed report on China's
intelligence activity to guide, buy and coerce political influence on
a global basis, with emphasis on New Zealand. Brady's work was
extremely effective because she is fluent in Mandarin Chinese, and she
based her research on Chinese-language media both inside and outside
of China.

On Thursday, Brady spoke to the Australian Parliament's Intelligence
and Security Committee in Canberra, and said that she had a break-in
and robbery at her house. Three laptops, including one on which she
wrote the paper, two cellphones and an encrypted memory stick from her
last trip to China were taken, but other valuables were not taken.
This followed receipt of letters threatening violence against her, and
an earlier break-in and robbery of her university office.

Brady says that she links the two-breaks to work she has conducted on
China's global influence campaign. New Zealand Herald and Stuff (New Zealand)

****
**** New Zealand MP Jian Yang faces heavy scrutiny from covert links to China's military
****

On September 13 of last year, it emerged that China-born Yang Jian, a
government official and MP in New Zealand's ruling National Party had
been in China's military intelligence services and had joined the
Chinese Communist Party, but had not revealed these affiliations when
he applied for citizenship.

Yang moved from China to New Zealand in 1991, and became an MP 12
years later. At a press conference, Last week, Yang, an MP for New
Zealand’s governing National Party, confirmed he had taught English to
Chinese spies in the 1980s and 1990s, and that he had been a member of
the Communist Party while in China, but that he had not declared the
names of the military institutions he taught at when applying for
citizenship. These Chinese institutions were the People's Liberation
Army-Air Force Engineering College and the Luoyang language institute,
the latter run by China's equivalent of America's National Security
Agency.

At the press conference, Yang said:

<QUOTE>"I am not a spy. I refute any allegations that
question my loyalty to New Zealand ... Although I was not born
here I am proud to call myself a New Zealander, obey our laws and
contribute to this country. I challenge those who are propagating
these defamatory statements to front up and prove
it."<END QUOTE>

Nonetheless, Yang remains under scrutiny by the governments of not
only New Zealand but also Australia, he briefly interned with a
sensitive Australian parliamentary committee before moving to New
Zealand.

One question that has not been satisfactorily answered is: Why did he
leave China at all to come to New Zealand in 1991.

In 1991 The China expert and author Peter Mattis says that there are
two plausible explanations. 1991 was shortly after the Tiananmen
Square massacre, so one scenario is that he left to escape his
homeland and put his past behind him to create a new life. The other
was to work covertly for military intelligence, most likely China's
Second Department, dealing in human intelligence. Newsroom (New Zealand, 27-Dec-2017) and Australian Broadcasting (20-Oct-2017) and Guardian (13-Sep-2017) and South China Morning Post (13-Sep-2017)

****
**** Anne-Marie Brady's report, 'Magic Weapons', documents China's global influence strategy
****

China's president Xi Jinping once used the term "magic weapon" to
refer to China's United Front Work Department. Officially it focuses
on building support for the Communist Party in China, but it's become
a coercive propaganda tool targeting Chinese globally, especially in
Australia, New Zealand, the U.S., and Canada, but in other countries
as well. The agency particularly surveils and targets Chinese
students abroad and foreign universities to adopt language that favors
pro-Beijing policies, such as delegitimizing Taiwan, and Western
ideals and values, such as liberal democracy, Christianity, or Falun
Gong.

Thanks to Chinese emigration, there are now large communities of
Chinese people in Australia and New Zealand. Chinese propaganda has
been so thoroughly successful that Chinese media in Australia is now
almost overwhelmingly pro-Beijing, and is promoting Chinese values
("socialism with Chinese characteristics"), rather than Western values
of liberal democracy and freedom. United Front Work attempts to sway
elections so that pro-Beijing policies are adopted.

Anne-Marie Brady's report, entitled "Magic Weapons: China's political
influence activities under Xi Jinping," describes in detail how
Chinese propaganda works in New Zealand:

<QUOTE>"There are currently around 200,000 ethnic Chinese
resident in New Zealand, out of a population of 4.5 million New
Zealanders. The majority of Chinese in New Zealand live in
Auckland, where they make up around 10 percent of the
population. Chinese consular authorities keep a close eye on all
Chinese community activities, but especially in Auckland. They
have achieved this through close links with core pro-Beijing
Chinese community groups, and by maintaining oversight over other
Chinese community groups, ethnic Chinese political figures, and
Chinese language media and schools in New Zealand. Moreover,
during the Xi era, the PRC embassy has supported the setting up of
new organizations that report back to united front bodies in
China, and, according to two former Australian-based Chinese
diplomats, by placing supporters and informers in New Zealand
Chinese organizations that are more independent minded and pose a
potential threat to China’s interests. This is classic CCP
party-building and organization work; one of the three “magic
weapons” of the CCP. The current level of supervision over the
ethnic Chinese community in New Zealand is a remarkable
achievement. All throughout the Cold War years, with only a few
exceptions, Chinese New Zealanders were neither pro-CCP nor
pro-PRC, even if they were not necessarily pro-Chinese Nationalist
Party or pro-ROC,76 and New Zealand’s Chinese-language media,
community groups, and language schools were proudly
independent. ...

The organization most closely connected with the PRC authorities
in New Zealand is the Peaceful Reunification of China Association
of New Zealand (PRCANZ), founded in 2000. ... The name of the
organization is a reference to the “Peaceful Reunification” of
mainland China and Taiwan. However, the organization also engages
in a range of activities which support Chinese foreign policy
goals, including block-voting and fund-raising for ethnic Chinese
political candidates who agree to support their organization’s
agenda. When Chinese senior leaders visit New Zealand, it is
united front-affiliated organizations such as PRCANZ who organize
counter-protest groups to shout down pro-Falungong, pro-Tibet, or
any other group critical of China who come to protest when China’s
senior leaders visit New Zealand."<END QUOTE>

Brady's report also gives a detailed account of Yang Jian's activities
in including New Zealand's government, as well as the activities of
other China-born officials.

New Zealand's prime minister Jacinda Ardern discount's Brady's report,
and says that she's seen no evidence of spying by Yang Jian or other
China-born officials:

<QUOTE>"Certainly I haven't seen evidence of that from
[Brady] directly. It sounds to me like it's an insinuation that's
being made.

Of course, we do have close links as a country with China and as a
party with China. It's another step again though to make that kind
of link."<END QUOTE>

Diplomat and Washington Post and New Zealand Herald (20-Sep-2017) and South China Morning Post (23-Sep-2017)

Related Articles

• China-Australia relations plummet over China's illegal militarization of South China Sea (16-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Xi Jinping says that China will now have a 'say' on all international issues (01-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Xi Jinping's 'Socialism with Chinese characteristics' is identical to Hitler's National Socialism (24-Oct-2017)
  
  
• New Zealand and U.S. resume military cooperation (29-Oct-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, New Zealand, Australia, China,
Anne-Marie Brady, Jian Yang, National Party,
People's Liberation Army-Air Force Engineering College,
Luoyang language institute, Peter Mattis, Tiananmen Square,
Magic weapons, Xi Jinping, United Front Work Department,
Jacinda Ardern

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 17-Feb-18 World View -- Ethiopia declares state of emergency after shock resignation of prime minister

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ethiopia declares state of emergency after shock resignation of prime minister
  
• Generational analysis of Ethiopia's protests and state of emergency
  

****
**** Ethiopia declares state of emergency after shock resignation of prime minister
****


Massive protests in Ethiopia's Oromia region pushed prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn to resign (Reuters)

Ethiopians on Thursday were shocked and surprised when the country's
prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn submitted his letter of
resignation, after being in office since 2012. In a televised address
he said:

<QUOTE>"Unrest and a political crisis have led to the loss of
lives and displacement of many. I see my resignation as vital in
the bid to carry out reforms that would lead to sustainable peace
and democracy."<END QUOTE>

The unrest and political crisis he's referring to is anti-government
protests by millions of people, especially among the marginalized
Oromo ethnic group, which comprises 34% of Ethiopia's population, and
among the Amhara ethnic group, which comprises another 27%.

Since 1991, the government has been largely controlled by the ethnic
Tigrayans, who are a market and government dominant minority,
comprising only 6% of the population. Hailemariam Desalegn was a
member of the tiny Wollayta ethnic group, party of the Tigrayan ruling
coalition.

Hailemariam's resignation was apparently an attempt to calm the
protests. But as it failed to do so, the Council of Ministers
declared a state of emergency that "would be instrumental in thwarting
ethnic-based conflicts in the country and safeguarding the
constitutional order."

The details of the state of emergency were not revealed, except
to say that it would be similar to the last state of emergency,
which began in October 2016, and ended only a few months ago
in August 2017. According to Human Rights Watch's description
of the last state of emergency:

<QUOTE>"The government’s emergency powers brought mass
detentions, politically motivated criminal charges, and numerous
restrictions on people’s movement and communication. While the end
is welcome news, thousands remain in detention without charge,
none of the protesters’ underlying grievances have been addressed,
and politically motivated trials of key opposition leaders,
artists, journalists, and others continue."<END QUOTE>

There are concerns that the new state of emergency will only repeat
the abuses of the last one. Ethiopian News Agency and Addis Standard (Addis Ababa) and Bloomberg and Reuters and Addis Standard and Reuters

****
**** Generational analysis of Ethiopia's protests and state of emergency
****

What we're seeing here is a variation of a pattern that I've described
repeatedly in several countries. This pattern occurs in the aftermath
of a generational crisis war when, rather than being an external war
with another country, the war is a civil war within the country
between tribes and ethnic groups. Such a war is generally between two
tribes or ethnic groups who have been neighbors for decades, who
intermarried, and whose children played together, but then suddenly
they turn on each other and commit atrocities, rapes, murders,
torture, mutilations and massacres on their former neighbors,
including women and children.

That kind of war traumatizes the both the winners and the losers. The
new country leader, usually from the winning tribe, is someone who had
directed or approved these atrocities, rapes and massacres, and in his
mind considers them to have been completely justified. The civil war
always ends with some sort of agreement that all the warring ethnic
groups will suddenly love one another live together in peace and
harmony. But in practice, in the decades that follow, the losing
tribe is marginalized, and in the following generational Awakening
era, begins to protest. The country leader believes that a new civil
war is beginning, and returns to the atrocities of the civil war in
order to prevent a new war from occurring. Examples that I've
reported on include Paul Biya in Cameroon, Pierre Nkurunziza in
Burundi, Paul Kagame in Rwanda, Yoweri Museveni in Uganda, Robert
Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Joseph Kabila in DRC, or, outside of Africa,
Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Hun Sen in Cambodia.

Ethiopia's last generational crisis war occurred in 1991, when the
Marxist Derg dictatorship was overthrown. A Tigrayan war leader,
Meles Zenawi, was in power until his death in 2012. Although the
Tigrayans comprise only 6% of the population, the Tigrayan governing
coalition increasingly marginalized the two largest ethnic groups, the
Oromo ethnic group (34% of Ethiopia's population), and among the
Amhara ethnic group (27%).

In 2012, Hailemariam Dessalegn, from a small ethnic group (Wollayta)
became prime minister. It was hoped that Hailemariam would institute
reforms that would improve the lives of the Oromos and the Amharas,
but Hailemariam was still part of the Tigrayan governing coaliation,
and followed the same policies. The reforms that had been promised
were not implemented, and the situation was made worse by a
severe drought.

There were massive anti-government protests by the Oromos and the
Amharas, resulting in a brutal state of emergency that ran from
October 2016 to August 2017. With minor changes, this is exactly the
pattern that I've repeatedly described in the other countries listed
above.

After the state of emergency ended in August 2017, nothing had
changed. Reforms that had been promised did not occur. Once again,
there were massive protests by the Oromos and Amharas. In an attempt
to quall the protests last month, the government announced the
release of hundreds of political prisoners from the last state of
emergency, and promised further reforms.

Those measures did not reduce the protests, and Hailemariam resigned
on Thursday, saying, "I see my resignation as vital in the bid to
carry out reforms that would lead to sustainable peace and democracy."
Apparently Hailemariam was no longer willing to play the role of
useful idiot and serve as cover for the same Tigrayan policies that
had been in place since 1991.

Now Ethiopia is at a new tipping point. A new prime minister will
have to be chosen. Surprisingly, some analysts are saying that the
leading candidate for prime minister is articulate, charismatic and
confident 47-year-old Lemma Megersa, from the Oromo ethnic group.
Once again, hopes are rising that needed reforms could finally be
implemented, if an Oromo became prime minister.

Such hopes are probably misplaced. Lemma may be an Oromo, but he's
also been part of the official "establishment" for his entire
political career since the 1990s, and even if he's chosen as PM, it's
unlikely that he'll be able to effect any real changes. Whatever
generational forces have brought about the current set of policies,
those generational forces will not change because of one person
becoming prime minister. Addis Standard (Addis Ababa) and Africa Report and Al Jazeera and Ethiopian Treasures

Related Articles

• Ethiopia declares extraordinary six-month state of emergency (10-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Generational history of Ethiopia and Eritrea (14-Jun-2016)
  
  
• Egypt accused of 'dirty deal' to sabotage an Ethiopian dam project (05-Feb-2017)
  
  
• Tensions rise between Egypt and Ethiopia over Nile River dam (25-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Death of Ethiopia's prime minister could affect Mideast security (22-Aug-2012)
  
  
• Ethiopians crush Islamists in Somalia, forcing retreat to Kenya (02-Jan-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia, Hailemariam Desalegn,
Meles Zenawi, Lemma Megersa,
Tigrayans, Oromos, Amharas, Wollayta

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-Feb-18 World View -- Iran gives operational control of its Chabahar seaport to India

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iran gives operational control of its Chabahar seaport to India
  
• Comparing Iran's Chabahar seaport vs Pakistan's Gwadar seaport
  

****
**** Iran gives operational control of its Chabahar seaport to India
****


Map displaying the trade routes related to the Chabahar and Gwadar ports. Purple lines show China's trade routes through Gwadar, while red lines show India's planned trade routes through Chabahar. (Defence.pk)

During a visit by Iran's president Hassan Rouhani to India on
Saturday, Rouhani and India's prime minister witnessed the signing of
nine agreements to expand bilateral economic ties, with focus on the
development and utilization of Iran's strategic Chabahar Port. Iran
would grant operational control of a portion of the port to India for
18 months.

In return, India has agreed to invest an initial $87 million growing
to a total of $2 billion in the Chabahar and in the Chabahar-Zahedan
railroad linking the port to the Trans-Iranian railway and to other
cities in Iran, connecting from there to Afghanistan, Central Asia,
and Eastern Europe.

The use of the Chabahar is considered to be a major "game-changer" for
India's economy and defense. Any land route from India to Afghanistan
and Central Asia is blocked by Pakistan and China. The route from
India's Kandla seaport to Chabahar and then overland to Afghanistan
and Central Asia would not be as good as a pure land route, but it's
better than anything that's been available up till now.

Chabahar is also a counter to China's development of the Gwadar port
in Pakistan, shown by the large purple star in the map above. The
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), coupled with China's One
Belt-One Road (OBOR), is seen by Indian defense analysts as a major
security threat. The purple lines in the map above show China's
traditional trade routes across the sea, using China's "String of
Pearls" port facilities (purple stars), while the red lines show the
trade routes being planned using Iran's Chabahar port. Mehr News (Iran) and Business Standard (India) and VOA and India Defense Review (20-Mar-2017)


****
**** Comparing Iran's Chabahar seaport vs Pakistan's Gwadar seaport
****

A number of analysts have been comparing the two seaports. Although
the Chabahar port is considered to be of great strategic importance to
India, the general consensus seems to be that Pakistan's Gwadar port
will serve China's needs far better than Iran's Chabahar port will
serve India's needs.

The two ports are about 90 km apart. However, unlike Chabahar, Gwadar
is better strategically located in the Indian Ocean, so that India
vessels would also be subject to the active monitoring by Pakistan's
navy and probably China's navy.

Gwadar seaport is much larger, thanks to Gwardar's natural layout and
depth. The maximum planned capacity of Chabahar is 10-12 million tons
per year, while that of Gwadar will be 300-400 million tons.

Resource-rich Afghanistan is an important trading partner for both
Iran and Pakistan. However, Pakistan is aligned with the Taliban,
while Iran is aligned with the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance. This
will raise security issues for Pakistan and Iran, and therefore for
China and India.

Security is a major issue for both ports. Chabahar is located in one
of Iran’s most volatile regions, frequently attacked by the
Taliban-linked Jundullah terror group. Gwadar is located in
Pakistan's Balochistan province which has also been targeted by
Taliban-linked terrorists, as well as by a Baloch insurgency.

Iran has special issues related to the US and the Iran nuclear deal,
which is opposed by the Donald Trump administration. The US has
threatened additional sanctions on Iran, and those sanctions to
conflict with India's investments in Chabahar. However, US Secretary
of State Rex Tillerson, visiting New Delhi recently, assured India
that even if America re-imposes sanctions on Iran in the coming days,
it will exempt the Chabahar facility.

As regular readers are aware, Generational Dynamics predicts that in
the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China,
Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the
"allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. The Chabahar seaport deal
moves these countries another step closer to that alignment. Asia Times
and World News Report (India) and Bloomberg Quint and Diplomat and Indian Express (25-Nov-2017)

Related Articles

• Iran-India sign 'historic' Chabahar port deal to counter Pakistan-China (25-May-2016)
  
  
• India begins shipping wheat to Afghanistan through Iran's Chabahar port (30-Oct-2017)
  
  
• China launches 'One Belt One Road', raising objections and violent protests (14-May-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Chabahar seaport, India, Hassan Rouhani,
Pakistan, Gwadar seaport, China, Narendra Modi,
Chabahar-Zahedan railroad, Afghanistan, Central Asia,
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, CPEC,
One Belt One Road, OBOR, Balochistan, Jundullah,
Rex Tillerson

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

Make no mistake: India is now a Great Power.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-Feb-18 World View -- Special prosecutor Robert Mueller issues farcical indictment of Russian trolls

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Special prosecutor Robert Mueller issues farcical indictment of Russian trolls
  
• How the Russian trolls do their jobs
  
• Russian trolls are Bashar al-Assad's use of chemical weapons
  
• Comparing Russian trolls to Chinese hackers
  

****
**** Special prosecutor Robert Mueller issues farcical indictment of Russian trolls
****


Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton (Reuters)

On Friday, the Justice Department's Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller,
after a year of investigation, brought an indictment against a Russian
"troll factory," the St. Petersburg based Internet Research Agency,
along with various trolls and other officials connected to the agency.

It's hard to overestimate the farcical nature of the indictment. I
wrote about the Internet Research Agency in 2014, and I've written
about Russian trolls several times since then. Any journalist or
analyst writes about a variety of political or international subjects
is attacked by Russian trolls. I've been attacked by dozens, perhaps
hundreds of Russian trolls since 2014.

Here are some excerpts from the indictment:

<QUOTE>"2. Defendant INTERNET RESEARCH AGENCY LLC
("ORGANIZATION") is a Russian organization engaged in operations
to interfere with elections and political processes. Defendants
MIKHAIL IVANOVICI1 BYSTROV, MIKHAIL LEONIDOVICH BURCHIK ... and
VLADIMIR VENKOV worked in various capacities to carry out
Defendant ORGANIZATION's interference operations targeting the
United States. From in or around 2014 to the present, Defendants
knowingly and intentionally conspired with each other ... to
defraud the United States by impairing, obstructing, and defeating
the lawful functions of the government through fraud and deceit
for the purpose of interfering with the U.S. political and
electoral processes, including the presidential election of 2016.

3. Beginning as early as 2014, Defendant ORGANIZATION began
operations to interfere with the U.S. political system, including
the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ... Defendants CONCORD and
PRIGOZHIN spent significant funds to further the ORGANIZATION's
operations and to pay the remaining Defendants, along with other
uncharged ORGANIZATION employees, salaries and bonuses for their
work at the ORGANIZATION.

4. Defendants, posing as U.S. persons and creating false
U.S. personas, operated social media pages and groups designed to
attract U.S. audiences. These groups and pages, which addressed
divisive U.S. political and social issues, falsely claimed to be
controlled by U.S. activists when, in fact, they were controlled
by Defendants. Defendants also used the stolen identities of real
U.S. persons to post on ORGANIZATION-controlled social media
accounts. Over time, these social media accounts became
Defendants' means to reach significant numbers of Americans for
purposes of interfering with the U.S. political system, including
the presidential election of 2016."<END QUOTE>

I'm sorry, I can't stop laughing. The CIA and Special Prosecutor's
office has spent hundreds of millions of dollars sleuthing out these
criminals, and discovered that Russian trolls hired by Russia's "troll
factory," the Internet Research Agency in St. Petersburg Russia, are
on blogs and social media sites posting misleading comments. This was
something that was well known to me and many other people.

Here's what I wrote in August 2014:

<QUOTE>While Russia's president Vladimir Putin maintains an
iron grip on the state-run media, the internet remains a big
problem for Putin, as he's had little ability to control Twitter
and other social media.

Putin has responded to this problem in a bizarre way. According
to documents examined by an analyst firm, since April a Russian
firm called the [i]Internet Research Agency, with a 2014
budget of $10 million, has been hiring hundreds of "internet
trolls" to challenge any online article critical of Russia.

Each troll is expected to post comments on blogs and news sites 50
times per day. The comments range from lies and disinformation to
abuse and profanity. Each blogger is to maintain six Facebook
accounts, posting three times a day in each. On Twitter, they're
expected to manage 10 accounts and tweet 50 times a day. [Emphasis
added]"<END QUOTE>[/i]

I get attacked by American trolls as well, but apparently the reason
that Russian trolls were indicted is because they didn't register with
the US government. US Department of Justice and Russia Today

****
**** How the Russian trolls do their jobs
****

Let's take some example of attacks by Russian trolls, so we can see
what the Special Prosecutor might be talking about. I was never
attacked by trolls over the election because I never wrote about the
election. However, I am always attacked by Russian trolls whenever I
write about any of the following subjects:

• Russia's invasion of eastern Ukraine
  
  
• Russia's shooting down of the MH17 passenger plane with a Buk
  missile
  
  
• Russia invading and annexing Crimea
  
  
• Vladimir Putin bragging about how he fooled the West by lying
  about his plans to invade and annex Crimea
  
  
• Syria's Bashar al-Assad using Sarin gas on innocent civilians
  
  
• Syria's Bashar al-Assad using chlorine gas to force women and
  children into the open so he can slaughter them en masse with
  missiles

Let's take an example: Shooting down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17
passenger plane by the Russians in eastern Ukraine on July 17, 2014.
We actually knew within minutes that the Russians had shot it down
with a missile, because Igor Strelkov, the commander of the Russian
forces in east Ukraine, immediately tweeted the following:

<QUOTE>"We shot down AN-26 [military transport] near the city
Torez, Donetsk People's Republic ... We warned, don't fly in our
sky."<END QUOTE>

Strelkov's militias had shot down at least two Ukrainian AN-26s in the
previous week, and was bragging that he'd shot down a third. The
tweet was taken down a few minutes later, when he learned that he'd
shot down a passenger plane.

Russian media and trolls went into full-on troll mode, making one
ridiculous claim after another: Strelkov's tweet had never occurred;
the US had shot down MH17 to embarrass Russia; the airplane was struck
by a meteor; no living people were aboard the plane as it flew on
autopilot from Amsterdam, where it had been pre-loaded with "rotting
corpses."

Russian trolls will say that no evidence exists that Russians shot
down MH17. Actually, there are literally thousands of pieces of
evidence, including intercepted phone calls, photos, analyzed and
authenticated, videos, forensic examinations, witness statements,
satellite images, and radar data. There was a major Dutch investigation
that proved with no doubt that
Russians shot down MH17 with a Russian-made Buk missile. But trolls
will constantly say, "there's no evidence."

****
**** Russian trolls are Bashar al-Assad's use of chemical weapons
****

As another example, Russian trolls are always on the attack when you
write about the use of chemical weapons, including Sarin gas and
chlorine gas, by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. Once again, they
say that "there's no evidence." But once again, there are been
several thorough investigations of al-Assad's 2013 Sarin gas attack,
and there are thousands of pieces of evidence that al-Assad used Sarin gas on ordinary civilians,

including forensic collections and analyses, photos, videos,
eyewitness testimony, doctors' testimony, the UNSC report, analyses of
the UNSC report, and so forth, proving al-Assad's repeated use of
chemical weapons, including Sarin gas and chlorine gas.

Trolls try to use highly emotional arguments to avoid facts. One
troll named "Jan Fearing" told me a darling story about her trip to
Damascus where she met a mother who thought al-Assad was wonderful.
One troll argument I hear frequently is that al-Assad is popular, but
once again that's irrelevant, since all the worst genocidal monsters
are popular, including Adolf Stalin, Adolf Hitler, Mao Zedong and Pol
Pot. You can't succeed as a genocidal monster if your people don't
support you, and that means you have to be popular with your own
people to be a genocidal monster.

****
**** Comparing Russian trolls to Chinese hackers
****

I find the Russian trolls to be pretty much idiots. They're usually
working from prepared scripts, and they usually don't know anything
about the facts except what their trollmasters have told them.

I wasn't writing about election campaign issues, so I didn't encounter
trolls bashing Hillary and boosting Bernie Sanders and Trump, but I
assume that the trolls who did that were just as incompetent on those
subjects as they were on the subjects that I write about. During the
election campaign, there must have been millions of highly partisan
messages posted by hundreds of partisan organizations. How would the
average Facebook user ever be influenced by a Russian troll message
when it's surrounded by hundreds of other messages competing for the
user's attention? I don't see how it's even remotely possible that
the Russian trolls had any effect at all on the election, or that
they'll affect future elections.

In fact, when he announced the indictments, deputy attorney general
Rod Rosenstein said:

<QUOTE>"There is no allegation in the indictment that any
American was a knowing participant in the alleged unlawful
activity. There is no allegation in the indictment that the
charged conduct altered the outcome of the 2016
election."<END QUOTE>

This doesn't surprise me in the least. I don't see even the remotest
possibility that these trolls influenced the election, and despite the
media hysteria, I don't any possibility that they will have any
influence at all in the 2018 and 2020 elections. The current hysteria
is fatuous.

I personally believe that the use of trolls has backfired for the
Russians, not because of the Mueller's indictment, but because
everyone knows about Russian trolls, so that anyone who genuinely
wants to support Russia in one of these discussions is automatically
assumed to be a troll.

That's why Mueller's indictments are so farcical. They target people
in Russia who will never be extradited, and they reveal "crimes" that
everyone has been aware of for years.

People in the mainstream media are hoping against hope that these
indictments are just the first step in bringing charges against Donald
Trump. We'll all be watching to see whether they get their wishes.

Finally, let's take one more quote from the indictment:

<QUOTE>"57. After the election of Donald Trump in or around
November 2016, Defendants and their coconspirators used false
U.S. personas to organize and coordinate U.S. political rallies in
support of then president-elect Trump, while simultaneously using
other false U.S. personas to organize and coordinate
U.S. political rallies protesting the results of the 2016
U.S. presidential election. For example, in or around November
2016, Defendants and their co-conspirators organized a rally in
New York through one ORGANIZATION-controlled group designed to
"show your support for President-Elect Donald Trump" held on or
about November 12, 2016. At the same time, Defendants and their
co-conspirators, through another ORGANIZATION-controlled group,
organized a rally in New York called "Trump is NOT my President"
held on or about November 12, 2016. Similarly, Defendants and
their co-conspirators organized a rally entitled "Charlotte
Against Trump" in Charlotte, North Carolina, held on or about
November 19, 2016."<END QUOTE>

So the trolls were holding pro-Trump rallies and anti-Trump rallies in
two different places in New York on the same day. These are truly the
gang that couldn't shoot street. We can all feel safe now that
they're no longer at large. Oh, wait. All these trolls are in
St. Petersburg Russia, so they're still at large, and they'll never be
caught.

As a Senior Software Engineer, I'm familiar with the entire range of
online attacks, whether by trolls or for espionage, or for cyber
warfare. I find this hysteria over the Russian troll "threat to
democracy" to be a total joke.

By contrast, the threat from China's use of online espionage a million
times greater. There are dozens of Chinese high tech companies whose
only job is to spy and steal secrets from the United States. China
has stolen hundreds or thousands of terabytes of data from defense and
law enforcement systems, as well as from energy, transportation,
government, technology, health care, finance, telecommunications,
media, manufacturing and agriculture systems.

There are some real threats out there, not from Russian trolls but
from Chinese hackers. We should be focusing on the real dangers to
our society. US Dept. of Justice and The Conversation(5-Oct-2017)

Related Articles

• How to confront a Chinese troll (23-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Russia launches its massive disinformation campaign (14-Oct-2015)
  
  
• The talking points of the Russian and Chinese internet trolls
  
  
• Reader comments and questions on Syria, Russia, and Russian trolls (08-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Hacking of Democratic National Committee computers - I blame the victim (31-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Russia uses an army of trolls on social media (Internet Research Agency) (15-Aug-2014)
  
  
• U.S. charges China's People's Liberation Army with cyber espionage (20-May-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Department of Justice, Rod Rosenstein,
Robert Mueller, Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, Syria,
St. Petersburg, troll factory, Internet Research Agency,
Bashar al-Assad, Igor Strelkov, AN-26, China,
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17, Russian Buk 9M38 missile

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Feb-18 World View -- Turkey gets bogged down with military 'Operation Olive Branch' in Afrin, Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Turkey gets bogged down with military 'Operation Olive Branch' in Afrin, Syria
  
• Syria says it will send its 'popular forces' to support the YPG against Turkey in Afrin
  

****
**** Turkey gets bogged down with military 'Operation Olive Branch' in Afrin, Syria
****


A Kurdish woman at an anti-Turkish rally near Afrin in norther Syria (AFP)

On January 20, Turkey began the ironically named military Operation
Olive Branch to take control of Syria's northern city of Afrin from
the Kurdish militias, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), though it's
never entirely clear what "take control" means.

Turkey considers the YPG Kurds to be terrorists, because they're
linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The PKK has perpetrated
large terrorist attacks in Turkey in the last two years, and has
conducted an on-and-off separatist insurgency against Turkey's
government for thirty years. The Kurds have set as a goal the
creation of an independent state of Rojava along Syria's northern
border with Turkey. Turkey considers that objective to be an
existential threat.

When Operation Olive Branch began on January 20, Turkey's president
Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised the Turkish people that the operation
would be finished within a week, and that the military operation would
move east to the city of Manbij. Now it's been a month, and it
doesn't appear that the operation is close to completion.

Turkish troops are backed by an estimated 22,000 "moderate rebels" in
the Free Syrian Army (FSA), while the YPG is estimated to have about
8,000 to 10,000 fighters in Afrin. Estimates are the 32 Turkish
soldiers, 43 FSA militants and 1,551 YPG militants have been killed so
far.

So there's no question but that the YPG forces are being
battered. However, Afrin is a town of 400,000 to 500,000 people.

So in my mind, I'm making comparisons to some of the previous battles.
East Aleppo had a population of 275,000, only about 1,000 of whom were
in the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS). The army and air
force of the regime of Syria's Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russian
warplanes and Hezbollah troops, used missiles, barrel bombs laced with
chlorine gas, and other weapons to "take control" of Aleppo. But it
took them about six months, and they practically destroyed the entire
city to do it.

In Eastern Ghouta there are 400,000 people, and al-Assad's regime,
backed by the Russians, is battering the city with missiles, Sarin gas
and barrel bombs laced with chlorine gas. That battle has been going
on for several months, and appears nowhere near ended. It will be a
long time before al-Assad "takes control" of eastern Ghouta.

So now the Turks are attacking Afrin, with 400,000-500,000 people.
Russia controls the airspace above Afrin, and so the power of Turkey's
warplanes is being limited, according to reports. Furthermore, as far
as is known, the Turks aren't using Sarin gas and chlorine gas as
Bashar al-Assad does regularly.

So I'm not a military expert, but doing these comparisons says to me
that Turkey is going to be bogged down in Afrin for a long time.
VOA and Washington Post and Xinhua
and Kurdistan 24

****
**** Syria says it will send its 'popular forces' to support the YPG against Turkey in Afrin
****


Map of Syria regions controlled by government, Kurds and rebels (France 24)

On Sunday, a senior YPG official said that the YPG had reached a deal
for the Syrian army to enter Afrin and that it could be implemented
within two days.

On Monday, Bashar al-Assad's Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) posted
the following:

<QUOTE>"Popular forces to arrive in Afrin within hours to
support locals against Turkish aggression

SANA’s reporter in Aleppo said on Monday that popular forces are
to arrive in Afrin area soon to support locals in facing the
aggression launched by the Turkish regime on the area since
January 20th.

The reporter said that the arrival of popular forces will
strengthen the locals’ resilience and resistance against the
Turkish aggression which targets infrastructure, public and
private properties, and economic and services
establishments."<END QUOTE>

This report has been widely referenced in the international media,
usually with the interpretation that Syria's army will soon be
fighting Turkey's army in Afrin.

However, what's going on is far from clear. Unlike the YPG statement,
the SANA statement doesn't mention Syria's army. It mentions "popular
forces" from Aleppo. This could mean Hezbollah forces or it could
mean mercenary soldiers that Iran has been bringing in from
Afghanistan.

According to Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu:

<QUOTE>"It's important what the regime will do when it enters
[Afrin]. If the regime plans to enter to fight PKK/YPG, then no
problem. But if the regime enters to protect the YPG, then no one
can stop Turkey or the Turkish forces."<END QUOTE>

There have been rumors for a few days that the al-Assad regime and the
Kurds were reaching an agreement to jointly oppose the Turkish forces
in Afrin. Ironically, Turkey and the al-Assad regime have a common
interest -- neither of them wants the YPG to control Afrin. Turkey
wants the FSA to control Afrin, and al-Assad wants his regime to
control Afrin, but neither of them wants the Kurds to control Afrin.

So there's really no common interest between Syria and the YPG. The
Kurds want to continue controlling Afrin, and just want Syria's help
in expelling Turkey. The Syrian want to expel Turkey, but then take
control of Afrin. According to one analyst:

<QUOTE>"The Syrian regime wants complete political
administration in Afrin, a comprehensive deal that includes
security and politics. They want to return to Afrin. The Kurdish
Rojava authorities want the Syrian army on the border [with
Turkey] but they don’t accept [pro-government] forces into
Afrin."<END QUOTE>

So even if a deal is reached between al-Assad and the YPG, and Syria's
"popular forces" enter Afrin, then instead of the YPG and Syria
fighting the Turks, it could end up with the YPG and the Turks
fighting Syria. SANA (Damascus) and France 24 and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters

Related Articles

• Syrian war escalates sharply, after Israel, Iran, Turkey and Russia all lose aircraft (11-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Russia's Syria peace talks in Sochi dissolve into farce as Lavrov gets heckled (31-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Turkey begins invasion of Syria while China lies about 'indisputable sovereignty' (21-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Turkey begins its air and ground invasion of Syria's Afrin (21-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib (13-Oct-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Turkey, Operation Olive Branch, Syria,
Free Syrian Army, FSA,
Iran, Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hezbollah, Mevlut Cavusoglu,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Nusra Front,
Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, JFS, Front for the Conquest of Syria,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Eastern Ghouta, Hama, Idlib, barrel bombs, chlorine, Sarin gas,
People’s Protection Units, YPG, Afrin, Manbij, Rojava

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

The indictment of the Russian trolls is not a farce. The indictment greatly limits their movement outside of Russia, as there will be many places in which they could be arrested, including some of th3e favorite destinations for Russian tourists.

[John J. Xenakis]

(02-20-2018, 01:31 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > The indictment of the Russian trolls is not a farce. The
> indictment greatly limits their movement outside of Russia, as
> there will be many places in which they could be arrested,
> including some of th3e favorite destinations for Russian tourists.
>

Yeah, but over the internet from St. Petersburg they can still control
their armies of trolls and their Facebook ad buys, thereby continuing
to threaten the Existence of the World's Liberal Democracies. But at
least they and their families will be forced to take vacations at
Black Sea resorts rather than Mediterranean Sea resorts. It's harsh,
but they deserve it.

There is one good thing. Next time a Russia troll comes after me,
I'll ask him whether he's been indicted yet by the Special Prosecutor.
That will be fun.

[Warren Dew]

The Russian trolls' part in the election has been farcical, no doubt.

They and the rest of the Russian disinformation campaign were quite effective in obscuring what was happening in eastern Ukraine until it was too late to do anything about it, though - and similar efforts were effective when Russia invaded Georgia.

[Warren Dew]

Regarding Turkey, the fact that Afrin is in a Sunni region suggests that Turkey doesn't have to kill a large proportion of the populace to win, the way Assad does.

The situation in the air is in my opinion unclear.  The Turks have demonstrated the ability to shoot down Russian aircraft, but the Kurds also somewhat effective antiaircraft capabilities.

This situation does demonstrate the effectiveness of the Russian political campaign in the US in promoting divisiveness.  If it weren't for the silly Russia investigation, the Turks could involve the US in talks with Russia to split up Syria, the US could restrict the Kurds to the Jazira region, and the Turks could have Afrin; Russia could keep their port.  The Russia investigation makes it politically impossible for Trump to participate in such talks with Russia, however.

[John J. Xenakis]

(02-20-2018, 12:47 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: > The Russian trolls' part in the election has been farcical, no
> doubt.

> They and the rest of the Russian disinformation campaign were
> quite effective in obscuring what was happening in eastern Ukraine
> until it was too late to do anything about it, though - and
> similar efforts were effective when Russia invaded
> Georgia.

That's true. The Russian-Troll-in-Chief, Sergei Lavrov, has been
particularly effective in supporting use of weapons of mass
destruction, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and other
international crimes.

It never ceases to amaze my how the original principles of the United
Nations have been turned on their head, and the UN is now used as a
cover and a tool to support war crimes and genocide rather than
prevent them.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 21-Feb-18 World View -- US considers military options as North Korea continues nuclear weapons development during Olympics

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• 38North reports that North Korea continues nuclear weapons development
  
• American politicians debate a 'bloody nose attack' on North Korea
  

****
**** 38North reports that North Korea continues nuclear weapons development
****


Kim Jong-un's sister Kim Yo-jong speaks with South Korea's president Moon Jae-in during a Seoul theatre performance two weeks ago. News reports now indicate that Kim Yo-jong was pregnant with her second child. (Yonhap)

Based on analysis of commercial satellite imagery of North Korea's
Yongbyon nuclear facility, the US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins
University is reporting on its 38North web site that North Korea has
continued development of nuclear weapons capabilities, including
"steady progress" on its Experimental Light Water Reactor (ELWR). The
ELWR development seems to be nearly complete and "nearing operational
status."

It's widely believed that when North Korea launched its "charm
offensive" and offered to participate in the Winter Olympics games
being held in Seoul, South Korea, at the present time, the purpose
was to gain time to continue development of nuclear weapons and
long-range ballistic missiles. In particular, the North demanded that
the US and South Korea postpone the planned joint military drills that
were to begin in late January.

While the continued development of ELWR could hardly be a surprise to
anyone, it does serve to contradict the Pollyannaish views of some
politicians that the Olympics Games détente might mean an end to the
North Korea crisis.

The US and South Korea have both confirmed that they will go ahead
with the postponed joint military drills. The drills will be
postponed until after the end of the Paralympics games, which run from
March 8 to March 18. The start date of the drills will be announced
between March 18 and April 1, according to South Korea's defense
minister. 38 North and Korea Herald
and Yonhap (Seoul) and AFP and Fox News and Newsweek

****
**** American politicians debate a 'bloody nose attack' on North Korea
****

North Korea's charm offensive and attendance at the Olympics games has
postponed the crisis for a while, but the core logic driving North
Korean policy has not changed:

• North Korea has been striving for over 25 years to create a
  nuclear weapon and ballistic missile that can target the United
  States.
  
  
• North Korea's child dictator Kim Jong-un said on January 1 that
  this goal had already been achieved, and that North Korea would
  forever be safe from US attack. This claim is believed to be an
  exaggeration, but it's also believed that the goal will be achieved
  soon, within a few weeks or months.
  
  
• Numerous US officials, including president Donald Trump, have said
  that North Korea will absolutely, positively not have the capability
  to strike the United States with a nuclear weapon.
  
  
• Kim Jong-un has said that the North will manufacture an arsenal of
  nuclear ballistic missiles targeting the United States. It's also
  clear that the North would sell this technology to anyone who wishes
  to buy it.

This logic has led to discussion of a "bloody nose attack." This
would be some kind of military attack that would partially destroy
North Korea's nuclear weapon and ballistic missile development,
without attacking the Kim Jong-un regime itself.

A number of politicians have said that a bloody nose attack is
impossible, because it would invite massive retaliation against South
Korea's capital city Seoul.

Republican Senator James Risch said that lawmakers had been told "by
administration people, about as high up as it gets, that there is no
such thing as a ‘bloody nose strategy.'"

Risch added that Trump has been very clear on denying North Korea from
obtaining the ability to strike the US, and that "anyone who doubts
the president’s commitment to see that doesn’t happen, does so really
at their own peril."

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference on Sunday Risch said:

<QUOTE>"If this thing starts, it is going to be probably one
of the worst catastrophic events in the history of our
civilization, but it is going to be very, very brief. The end of
it is going to see mass casualties, the likes of which the planet
has never seen. It would be biblical proportion."<END QUOTE>

That's very dramatic, and it may well be true, but logic points in the
opposite direction. The North would just have to accept a bloody nose
attack, assuming that one is even possible, because retaliation would
mean the death of Kim Jong-un and his entire government.

Still, Risch's comments appear to be fundamentally self-contradictory.
Risch says that Trump will prevent North Korea from being able to
strike the US, as many other American politicians have also said, but
Risch also says that there will be no military strike. So what's
left?

New reports from unnamed intelligence source indicate that the "bloody
nose attack" will be a cyber attack. A cyber assault could cripple
Pyongyang's online communications and ability to control its military,
causing huge disruption but avoiding the loss of life.

According to the reports, the U.S. government for the past six months
has covertly begun laying the groundwork for possible cyberattacks on
North Korea in countries including South Korea and Japan. This process
involves installing fiber cables as bridges into the region and
setting up remote bases and listening posts, where hackers may attempt
to gain access to a North Korean internet that’s largely walled off
from external connections.

I don't know how much of this I believe, because the North Koreans
could use redundant networks and firewalls to block such attacks. In
my opinion, the most likely step in the next few months will be a US
conventional military attack on the North's facilities, and there will
be only minor retaliation from the North, if any. I could be wrong
about either of those things, of course, but that's my opinion at this time.
Telegraph (London) and Foreign Policy and Reuters

Related Articles:

• What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics? (12-Feb-2018)
  
  
• North Korea's Olympics publicity stunt gains widespread media adoration (18-Jan-2018)
  
  
• US officials plan for military strike on North Korea and war (05-Dec-2017)
  
  
• North Korea crisis: Would the United States sacrifice Los Angeles for Seoul? (18-Oct-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Jong-un, South Korea,
Experimental Light Water Reactor, ELWR,
US-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University, 38North,
James Risch

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Warren Dew]

"Continue to develop", my foot. "Accelerate manufacture" more like.

I'm glad there's at least one other person than me who believes North Korea would just have to accept a limited military strike.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 22-Feb-18 World View -- Cobalt for Apple iPhones means more money and weapons for DR Congo's corrupt leader Joseph Kabila

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• DR Congo's corrupt leader, Joseph Kabila, seeks to cash in on rise in cobalt prices
  
• Tanganyika province in DR Congo faces a humanitarian disaster of 'extraordinary proportions'
  
• Thousands of children work as cobalt miners in DR Congo
  

****
**** DR Congo's corrupt leader, Joseph Kabila, seeks to cash in on rise in cobalt prices
****


About 40,000 children, some as young as five years old, work as cobalt miners in DR Congo (Sky News)

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) announced last month that it
would be increase the royalty on cobalt exports from to 10% from 2%.
The new taxes would be paid by international mining firms operating in
DRC, including African miner Randgold Resources, China Molybdenum
Company Limited, Swiss firm Glencore plc, and MMG Ltd, an
Australian-Chinese venture.

However, these four multinational firms will be challenging the
royalty increases in court, based on a contractual relationship with
DRC that locks in the 2% rate, and can only be changed with ten years
notice.

DRC is the world's largest producer of cobalt, providing 58% of global
production. Other countries produce far less, including, in
decreasing order, Russia (5%), Australia, Canada, Cuba, Philippines
(3.6%), Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Zambia and New Caledonia (2.5%).

Demand for cobalt has been surging, because it's an essential
ingredient of rechargeable lithium-ion batteries used in iPhones and
other devices. And a big additional surge is expected in the next
three years, to provide for rechargeable batteries in electric cars.
A typical smartphone uses about 8 grams of refined cobalt, while the
battery for an electric car requires over 1,000 times more. The
result is that cobalt prices more than doubled in 2017.

In order to protect its supply of cobalt, Apple Inc. is in talks to
buy long-term supplies of cobalt directly from miners, such as
Glencore. Until now, Apple has left the business of buying cobalt to
the companies that make the batteries. Apple is seeking contracts to
secure several thousand metric tons of cobalt a year for five years or
longer.

However, other companies are believed also to be trying to lock up
cobalt supplies. Thus, Apple will be in competition with companies
like BMW AG, Volkswagen AG and Samsung SDI Co. AFP and Investing News and Bloomberg

****
**** Tanganyika province in DR Congo faces a humanitarian disaster of 'extraordinary proportions'
****

It seems that there's no end to the list of horrific stories about
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In the past, I've written about
the bloody wars in the southwestern Kasai region, where the armies and
militias reporting to the government of president Joseph Kabila are
committing genocide; about the bloody tribal wars in northeastern Kivu
region, causing massive refugee flows into Uganda; about the massive
corruption of Joseph Kabila, skimming billions of dollars out of the
treasury and providing it to his family and cronies; and of his
repeated stunts of refusing to hold elections, so that he can't be
replaced as president.

Now there's a new horrific story. In southeastern DRC in Tanganyika
province, there's a growing "humanitarian disaster of extraordinary
proportions," according to the UN. There have been bloody clashes
between militias of two ethnic groups -- the Luba, a Bantu ethnic
group, and the Twa, a Pygmy ethnic group. The violence has been going
on for four years, and surged in mid-2016, with killings, abductions
and rapes. Since January of this year, most of the violence has been
perpetrated Kabila's Congolese armed forces at road blocks.

Tanganyika province is three times the size of Switzerland with a
population of about 3 million, of whom 630,000 have been displaced by
the fighting, a number that has almost doubled in a year.

A report by the International Rescue Committee describes
the situation in detail, and provides the following historical
context:

<QUOTE>"The conflict in Tanganyika is rooted in the
long-standing marginalization of all the indigenous ethnic groups
commonly referred to as Pygmies in central Africa, of which the
Twa form one of the main groups. The Pygmies were the first
inhabitants of the DRC, living as nomadic hunter-gatherers at the
fringes of forest-savanna areas. However, Bantu tribes, primarily
relying on agriculture for their livelihoods, started migrating
into the Congo River Basin at the beginning of the first
millennium, progressively displacing Pygmies toward ever more
remote forest areas. Over time, the Bantu exerted their control
over land and established hereditary, hierarchized and
interrelated tribal power structures that excluded Pygmies.19
These tribal or customary power structures still underlie to this
day the configuration of local governments in DRC, especially at
the village and cluster levels, along with chiefdoms. This also
explains in good part the absence of the Twa from positions of
power in Tanganyika.

During colonial times and since independence, the cutting of
forests for logging, agriculture, cattle herding, and mining,
combined with the creation of national parks, gradually pushed the
Pygmies out of forests. This resulted in an accelerating trend
toward sedentary life for those populations. Sedentarization,
accompanied by a significant reduction in access to forest
resources, and limited access to land, has resulted in
systematically higher poverty for Pygmy populations relative to
the Bantu majority. Unsurprisingly, this led the author of a World
Bank report to summarize their situation in this manner: “Pygmies
in DRC can best be described as poor, vulnerable and
marginalized.” This higher poverty and vulnerability also
characterize the situation of the Twa in Tanganyika.

In Tanganyika, the majority of the Twa population is sedentary or
semi-sedentary. They are typically settled near roads and Bantu
villages, where they can work as agricultural day laborers and
maintain some access to forest resources. While some Twas have
fields and practice agriculture, land rights in DRC remain rooted
in the customary practices of Bantu chiefs. As a result, the Twa
have limited access to land that is contingent on Bantu customary
village chiefs allocating land in exchange for a customary tax
(typically a variable share of the annual crop). Bantu customary
chiefs also collect similar taxes for hunting, fishing or
artisanal mining activities."<END QUOTE>

The phrase "pushed out" can be assumed to be a euphemism for dozens of
bloody generational crisis wars, that have been going on for almost
2,000 years, according to the report. Pygmy groups such as the Twa
are at an enormous disadvantage in these wars because they're shorter
than their Bantu enemies. It appears that a generational crisis war
is going on at the current time, but that can't be confirmed without a
great deal of additional historical research.

It seems likely that what's tying the situation in Tanganyika together
with the story about cobalt is that Kabila is looking for new money
with which to buy weapons to kill people, or to provide to his family
and cronies. The United States has threatened to cut off aid to DRC
if there are no presidential elections this year, and Kabila may be
using the cobalt tax as a way of replacing the aid.
Reuters and Al Jazeera and International Rescue Committee

****
**** Thousands of children work as cobalt miners in DR Congo
****

UNICEF estimates that about 40,000 boys and girls, some as young as
five years old, work as cobalt miners in the Democratic Republic of
Congo (DRC). Some dig holes and go down into the pits, while others
work above ground, sifting through leftover rubble and rock, searching
for bits of ore which they then sort and wash. Many children become
extremely ill from inhaling the dust from mining.

Most of the mined cobalt is sent to China, where it is used in the
manufacture of lithium-ion batteries which are then sold to companies
like Apple and Samsung. Sky News and Amnesty International (June 2016)

Related Articles

• United Nations stunned as peacekeepers are massacred in DR Congo (09-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Democratic Republic of Congo issues farcical call for elections in December 2018 (07-Nov-2017)
  
  
• DR Congo's Joseph Kabila brings the art of power and corruption to new heights (24-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Massive government atrocities in DR Congo's Kasai threaten regional stability (21-Jun-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC,
Joseph Kabila, cobalt, Glencore plc, MMG Ltd,
Randgold Resources, China Molybdenum Company Limited,
Apple Inc., BMW AG, Volkswagen AG, Samsung SDI Co.,
Luba, Bantu, Twa, Pygmy, Tanganyika province

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-Feb-18 World View -- Syria, Russia, Iran conduct full-on mass extermination of civilians in Eastern Ghouta

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria, Russia, Iran conduct full-on mass extermination of civilians in Eastern Ghouta
  
• Russia rejects 30-day ceasefire in United Nations Security Council
  
• North Korea insults South Korea with selection of Kim Yong-chol head of Olympics closing ceremony
  

****
**** Syria, Russia, Iran conduct full-on mass extermination of civilians in Eastern Ghouta
****


Eastern Ghouta buildings destroyed by airstrikes and shelling from Bashar al-Assad's armed forces (AP)

Western leaders are expressing horror at the siege of Eastern Ghouta
in Syria, which is amounting to mass extermination of innocent
civilians, potentially including tens of thousands of innocent women
and children. The siege and the mass extermination are being led by
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, and backed by Russia's president
Vladimir Putin, and Iran's Supreme Leader Seyed Ali Khamenei. All
three of these people -- al-Assad, Putin and Khamenei -- are massively
committing war crimes and crimes against humanity, and all three
should be condemned as the worst kinds of war criminals, the worst war
criminals so far this century.

Hundreds of people have been killed just since Sunday from missiles,
shell fire, and barrel bombs packed with explosives and metal and
laced with chlorine gas. The war criminals are particularly targeting
bakeries, so people will starve, and hospitals, so the wounded can't
be treated, as well as food and aid convoys. Bashar al-Assad, who
considers the 400,000 residents of Eastern to be cockroaches to be
exterminated, wants to make sure that the baby cockroaches, in his
view, won't grow up to be adult cockroaches.

The siege is a repeat of the similar attack on East Aleppo at the end
of 2016. There were 275,000 people in Aleppo, and it took al-Assad,
Putin and Khamenei six months to destroy the city enough to "take
control." By the end, the city was almost completely deserted, since
thousands of people had been able to escape from the city and flee to
the countryside.

In East Ghouta, there are 400,000 people and, unlike in Aleppo, there
is no escape. All 400,000 people are trapped in Ghouta, waiting to be
exterminated.

According to reports, Syrian army forces are massing, and could enter
Ghouta for the final slaughter at any time.

The justification used by al-Assad, Putin and Khamenei is that among
the 400,000 civilians there are some jihadists. An analogy in America
would be if an American city contained some people from the Black
Panthers or Black Lives Matter, then it would be OK with al-Assad,
Putin and Khamenei for the army and air force to exterminate all the
people in the black neighborhoods in that city. United Nations and
AP and BBC and Middle East Eye

****
**** Russia rejects 30-day ceasefire in United Nations Security Council
****


Inspired by the Oscar-nominated film 'Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,' three billboards circle the United Nations on Thursday for three hours to demand action on Syria from the Security Council (AFP)

Sweden and Kuwait presented a draft resolution to the United Nations
Security Council for a 30-day ceasefire in Eastern Ghouta, during
which food and humanitarian aid could be delivered to the residents.

This of course is completely laughable, since al-Assad, Putin and
Khamenei are interesting in exterminating people, not a ceasefire.
Ironically, Eastern Ghouta is already a ceasefire zone, having been
designated by Russia as one of the four "de-confliction zones," based
on the agreements signed with Turkey and Iran in Astana, Kazakhstan.
Putin said that it would be a ceasefire zone, but as with everything
that Putin says, it was a lie designed to cover up future
extermination plans. This lying as a cover up has been used
repeatedly by Putin in Syria, Ukraine, Crimea, Georgia, and elsewhere.

Needless to say, Russia has done everything possible to sabotage the
draft resolution by offering numerous amendments to do things like
exempt jihadists and terrorist. However, since al-Assad, Putin and
Khamenei consider everyone in Ghouta, including innocent women and
children, to be "terrorists," these amendments make the resolution
meaningless. If there's ever a vote on a meaningful resolution, then
Russia will veto it.

It never ceases to amaze me how the original principles of the United
Nations have been turned on their head, and the UN is now used as a
cover and a tool to support war crimes and genocide rather than
prevent them.

As I wrote in 2011, Russia adopted a specific policy of using the UN
Security Council as a tool to control the foreign policy of the United
States, Europe and NATO, while leaving itself free to pursue any
policy it wanted. ( "22-Apr-11 News -- Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics"
)

The way it works is that Russia demands that all actions taken by Nato
be approved by the U.N. Security Council, where Russia has a veto,
giving Russian an effective veto over all Nato operations. The
Russians then can invade Ukraine, invade and annex Crimea, and commit
war crimes in Syria with complete freedom and impunity, because of the
double standard -- they never ask approval of the UNSC, while they
insist that NATO do nothing without getting UNSC approval.

Russia has worked with China to carry this policy even further.
Russia and China have been invaded and annexed other countries'
regions, just as Hitler did. This is something that the United
Nations was formed specifically to prevent. But all the UN can do now
is whatever Russia and China force it to do, using vetoes and ignoring
international law. Incredibly, China is building massive military
bases in the South China Sea, and completely ignoring United Nations
court decisions that declare them illegal. And yet they insist that
the United States and all other countries be completely restricted by
UN laws.

It's absolutely incredible how Russia and China have now only
completely crippled the United Nations, but actually done worse --
they're using the United Nations as a tool to subvert and enable the
crimes that the UN was formed to prevent. It's a truly remarkable
historic event, and it shows again how the world is headed for World
War III.

After World War II, historians analyzed the failure of the League of
Nations, and in the end blamed it on the United States for not
joining. So the US joined the League of Nations' successor, the
United Nations, and even agreed to host it in New York. But now, 71
years later, the United Nations is failing for the same kinds of
reasons that the League of Nations failed. In a generational Crisis
era, there is no will to enforce the principles for which the
organization was formed, and essentially the organization is taken
over by criminals. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes.
Middle East Eye and United Nations and
BBC
and Reuters and AFP

Related Articles

• Russia seeks to cripple Nato through Libya United Nations politics (22-Apr-2011)
  
  
• Syria's Bashar al-Assad targets civilians and hospitals in never-ending war of extermination (07-Jan-2018)
  
  
• Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin hug and declare the end of war in Syria (27-Nov-2017)
  
  
• Syria and Russia see 'the light at the end of the tunnel' after Aleppo victory (18-Dec-2016)
  
  
• Russia uses the 'Grozny Model' to pursue mass slaughter in Aleppo Syria (02-Aug-2016)
  

****
**** North Korea insults South Korea with selection of Kim Yong-chol head of Olympics closing ceremony
****

North Korea is insulting and provoking the South Koreans by saying
that it has selected Kim Yong-chol to head the North Korean high-level
delegation to the closing ceremony of the Olympics games on Sunday.

Kim Yong-chol is the vice chairman of the Workers Party Central
Committee, and is the mastermind of two major attacks on South Korean
targets. In May 2010, North Korea torpedoed and sank the warship Cheonan,
killing 46 of
South Korean crew members, and in November 2010, North Korea killed
South Korean civilians by shelling Yeonpyeong Island.

Incredibly, Kim Yong-chol is the man that the North will send to lead
the festivities on Sunday, and South Korea's president Moon Jae-in is
expected to roll out the red carpet for him. Kim Yong-chol has been
blacklisted and sanctioned by both South Korea and the US, and he is
currently in charge of North Korea's department in charge of the
regime's agitation against South Korea.

The families of the victims of the Cheonan and Yeonpyeong attacks are
furious at what's happening. It appears that North Korea's latest
charm offensive is suddenly over. Chosun Ilbo (Seoul)

Related Articles:

• What was Kim Yo-jong thinking as she returned to North Korea from the Olympics? (12-Feb-2018)
  
  
• NY Times publishes a generational analysis of South Korea (30-Jan-2018)
  
  
• North Korea reveals major change in strategic direction (05-Jan-2018)
  
  
• South Korean civilians shelled by North Koreans (24-Nov-2010)
  
  
• S. Korea accuses N. Korea of sinking warship (21-May-2010)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Eastern Ghouta, Bashar al-Assad,
Russia, Vladimir Putin, Iran, Seyed Ali Khamenei,
East Aleppo, Sweden, Kuwait, UN Security Council,
Ukraine, Crimea, Georgia, Nato, China, League of Nations,
South Korea, North Korea, Moon Jae-in, Kim Jong-un,
Cheonan warship, Yeonpyeong Island

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Cynic Hero '86]

More advertisement for globalist tyranny, when are boomers going to get it that Syria is a sovereign state. Liquidating elements that rebelled and sought to destroy the state is not being "Hitler"; it is fulfilling one of the cardinal rules of governance. Assad is doing the world a service.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-Feb-18 World View -- US embassy to Jerusalem will commemorate Israel's founding -- Palestinian 'Naqba Day'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• US will move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem on May 14
  
• State Dept. considers accepting private donations to pay for the embassy
  
• Already furious Palestinians condemn embassy move on 'Naqba Day' -- 'Catastrophe Day'
  

****
**** US will move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem on May 14
****


US Consulate General in Jerusalem, to be used as interim embassy after May 14 (YNet)

The US State Dept. announced on Friday that the US will move its
official embassy in Israel to Jerusalem from Tel Aviv on May 14,
commemorating the 70th anniversary of the founding of Israel. The
move had not been expected until the end of 2019, so this announcement
caught many Israelis and Palestinians by surprise.

Plans for a new US embassy building in Jerusalem are still a long way
off, so the May 14 move will be little more than symbolic. the
U.S. ambassador to Israel, David Friedman, along with a small staff,
will move on May 14 into an office building in Jerusalem housing the
current Consulate General in Jerusalem, making that building the new
interim embassy. The current embassy building in Tel Aviv will be
renamed the US Consulate, and will continue to house the bulk of the
U.S. diplomatic staff in Israel.

At the same time, a search will begin for the site of a new US embassy
building in Jerusalem. This search will be fraught with problems,
according to the opinion of an Israeli analyst forwarded to me by a
reader. The problems include the following:

• Jerusalem is a congested city with narrow streets,
  criss-crossed by pedestrian paths and bike paths.
  
  
• A new embassy will be a monstrosity stretching out in several
  rings of security, baffling traffic, forbidding parking, and inviting
  one contentious demonstration after another. NIMBY (Not in my back
  yard) will kick in early.
  
  
• Site selection will require approval of local, regional and
  national planning authorities, and will be targeted by numerous
  lawsuits.
  
  
• Digging in Jerusalem will almost certainly reveal valuable
  archeological artifacts and buildings from centuries past, requiring
  long delays for archeological analysis.
  
  
• Given the huge building costs and the equally huge political
  compromises that will be required, the chances for corruption are
  enormous.
  
  
• A change in government could derail the whole project.

YNet and Reuters and Newsweek

****
**** State Dept. considers accepting private donations to pay for the embassy
****

A big problem facing a new embassy building in Jerusalem is the cost,
expected to be into the hundreds of millions of dollars.

The State Department attorneys are looking into the legality of
accepting private donations to help pay for the construction of the
new embassy. The question is being discussed because Sheldon Adelson,
a pro-Israeli billionaire who has contributed tens of millions of
dollars to the Republican Party, has offered to pay for some or all of
the embassy costs.

Whether it's legal to allow one private individual to pay for the
building costs of an official government building is currently being
discussed, as it would be a significant departure from historical
practice. In one possible scenario, the administration would solicit
contributions not only from Adelson but potentially from other donors
in the evangelical Christian and American Jewish communities, too.

Allowing Adelson to contribute would also raise national and
international political issues in a situation where just the decision
to move the embassy has already proved highly controversial. It could
also raise new, unexpected issues. For example, would Adelson's name
be on the building? AP and VOX

****
**** Already furious Palestinians condemn embassy move on 'Naqba Day' -- 'Catastrophe Day'
****

Donald Trump's December announcement that the embassy would move from
Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, seeming to preclude having East Jerusalem as
the capital of a Palestinian state, has infuriated Palestinian
leaders, who said that the announcement proves that the US under
Donald Trump is not an honest mediator, but is clearly biased in
Israel's favor.

Saeb Erekat, the former Palestinian chief peace negotiator said last
month:

<QUOTE>"Jerusalem is not off the negotiations table, rather
the U.S. is outside the international consensus.

Those who say that Jerusalem is off the table are saying that
peace is off the table. The holy city is in the hearts of each and
every Palestinian, Arab, Christian and Muslim, and there will be
no peace without East Jerusalem being the sovereign capital of the
State of Palestine.

Trump could buy many things with his money, but he won’t be able
to buy the dignity of our nation."<END QUOTE>

With Friday's announcement moving up the date to May 14, an advisor to
Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas said:

<QUOTE>"We know the Americans are coordinating every step
with (Israeli President Benjamin) Netanyahu, but they do not do
the same with President Abbas. In the end this is not good for
peace, and no good for themselves, their own standing.

What we want is a clear statement that will allow the Palestinians
to have a state of their own, independent, within the 1967
borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital."<END QUOTE>

What is particularly infuriating to Palestinians is that May 14 is
"Naqba Day" -- the "Day of Catastrophe" -- the day that the
Palestinians commemorate every year for the founding of Israel.

Saeb Erekat said that the move is a violation of international law:

<QUOTE>"The American administration's decisions to recognize
Jerusalem as Israel's capital and choose the Palestinian people's
Naqba as the date for this step is a blatant violation of
international law. [The result will be] the destruction of the
two-state option, as well as a blatant provocation to all Arabs
and Muslims."<END QUOTE>

May 14, the Day of Catastrophe (Naqba) is an extremely bitter day
among Palestinians, not only because it was the day of Israel's
independence, but because the "catastrophe" refers to the Arabs'
catastrophic loss to the Jews in the Arab-Israeli War of 1948, a loss
that many Arabs blame on themselves.

According to Palestinian narratives, between 1947-49, Israelis
ethnically cleansed and destroyed about 530 Palestinian villages and
cities, and killed about 15,000 Palestinians in a series of mass
atrocities, leaving 750,000 Palestinians from a 1.9 million population
without a home.

Israelis respond that the clashes were launched by Arab Liberation
Army volunteers who attacked Jewish cities, settlements and armed
forces, followed by an invasion by Arab armies from Lebanon,
Transjordan, Syria, Iraq, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

However much Arabs are angry at Israelis for winning the war, many
Arabs are even more angry at Arab leaders of the time for losing the
war. Arab armies that attacked Israel expected an easy victory within
a day or two over a tiny, fledgling country that was not perceived as
a serious threat. They vastly underestimated the abilities of the
Jewish militias in Palestine, who were well-prepared and
well-organized and had many experienced fighters who had served in
units of the British Army during World War II.

But the strongest Arab condemnations of all are that the Arab armies
fought among themselves almost as much as they fought against the
Jews. While Arab leaders claimed to be fighting for Palestine, they
were actually fighting each other in a war of individual interests and
conflicting goals. The rivalries between the Arab militias and armies
contrasted with the much more unified Israeli militias and armies.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the most important
factor to understand is that the 1948 war was a generational crisis
war for the Jews, but was an Awakening era war for the Arabs. World
War II was not a crisis war for the Arabs. In the Crisis era mood,
the Jews were extremely unified and nationalistic.

But the Arabs' previous generational crisis war was World War I and
the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Just as the United States fought
the Vietnam War half-heartedly during its Awakening era in the 1960s,
the Arabs fought the 1948 Arab-Israeli war half-heartedly in its
Awakening era. This generational timeline difference in public mood
appears to have been the major factor in the Israelis' victory over
the Arabs. Haaretz (25-Jan) and USA Today and Al-Jazeera and AFP and Al-Jazeera (13-Jul-2009)

Related Articles

• Protests fizzle 3 days after Trump's Jerusalem announcement was universally condemned (10-Dec-2017)
  
  
• With Arab world in chaos, Arab League summit displays lack of leadership and influence (30-Mar-2017)
  
  
• Palestinian 'Oslo Generation' relationship with Israel extremely toxic and explosive (18-Oct-2015)
  
  
• Palestinian leader Abbas expected to deliver ultimatum to Israel at UN (28-Sep-2015)
  
  
• Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace? (01-May-2003)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Israel, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, David Friedman,
Sheldon Adelson, Palestine, Naqba Day, Catastrophe Day,
Saeb Erekat, Mahmoud Abbas, Arab-Israeli war of 1948

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 25-Feb-18 World View -- China angrily demands that the US retract the new North Korea sanctions

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• As North Korea's 'charm offensive' fades, decision time for military action approaches
  
• New Trump administration sanctions target companies trading with North Korea
  
• China angrily demands that the US retract the new North Korea sanctions
  

****
**** As North Korea's 'charm offensive' fades, decision time for military action approaches
****


Picture of North Korean vessel conducting ship-to-ship transfer of goods with the Panama-flagged KOTI in order to evade sanctions (Dept. of Treasury)

There's a growing feeling that the "crunch time" with North Korea is
close. Already, as we reported two days ago, the North is sending its most notorious military general

to lead the North Korean delegation in the Winter Olympics in Seoul on
Sunday. Kim Yong-chol is the North Korean general who masterminded
the devastating attacks on South Korean targets in 2010, and the North
is insulting the South by sending him to the closing ceremony, and is
signaling that its "charm offensive" has ended.

Because of the North's charm offensive, South Korea and the US agreed
to postponed their planned joint military drills until March 18, when
the Olympics and Paralympics games finally end. It's believed that
South Korea and the US have agreed on a date around April 1 to restart
them, and that will infuriate the North Koreans.

As we've also reported, North Korea has resumed development of nuclear
weapons and long-range ballistic missiles, even as the "charm
offensive" was in progress.

We've known for a long time that at some point, the US is going to
face a stark choice: Either accept a nuclear North Korea with an
arsenal of nuclear-tipped missiles pointed at the United States, and
accept that this nuclear missile technology will be sold to any nation
or terrorist group willing to pay cash, or take military action, a
"bloody nose attack" on North Korea that will disable their nuclear
missile development, at least for a while.

We've known this for some time, and now we've almost completely run
out of time. One choice or the other will have to be made soon. And
obviously there's only one choice. Numerous administration officials
have made it clear that North Korea will not be permitted to have a
nuclear weapon and ballistic missile system that can reach the United
States. Newsweek and Fox News

****
**** New Trump administration sanctions target companies trading with North Korea
****

The Trump administration's announcement on Friday of new sanctions has
the feel of desperation, and last desperate attempt to avoid having to
make the stark choice just described. Furthermore, president Donald
Trump warned of an unnamed "phase two," presumably a military action,
that could be "very, very unfortunate for the world" if the sanctions
did not work.

The new sanctions don't directly target North Korea. Instead, they
target shipping, trading companies and vessels that from other
countries that have been used to allow the North Koreans to cheat on
the existing sanctions.

A particular practice that the sanctions target is ship-to-ship
transfers. A ship carrying goods that are bound for North Korea does
not actually dock in North Korea. Instead, the ship has a rendezvous
with a North Korean ship in the middle of the sea, and the goods are
transferred from the first ship to the North Korean ship. At the same
time, goods from the North Korean can be transferred to the other ship
for illegal export.

At a briefing, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stood next to enlarged
photos from December 2017 that he said revealed ship-to-ship transfers
of fuel and other products destined for North Korea in an attempt to
evade sanctions. The picture at the beginning of this article depicts
such a December 9 rendezvous between a North Korean vessel and the
Panama-flagged KOTI, for an illegal ship-to-ship transfer.

The sanctions are aimed at ships located, registered or flagged in
numerous countries, including China, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong,
Marshall Islands, Tanzania, Panama and the Comoros.

Examples of international shipping companies that are sanctioned
include the following:

• Shandong, China-based Weihai World-Shipping Freight and
  Shanghai, China-based Shanghai Dongfeng Shipping Co Ltd;
  
  
• Hong Kong-based shipping companies Liberty Shipping Co Ltd, Chang
  An Shipping & Technology, Hongxiang Marine Hong Kong Ltd, Shen Zhong
  International Shipping Ltd, and Huaxin Shipping HongKong Ltd;
  
  
• Singapore-based Yuk Tung Energy Private Limited;
  
  
• Panama-based M.T. Koti Corporation.

Mnuchin said he could not rule out the prospect of the United States
boarding and inspecting North Korean ships.

The announcement stops short of a full blockade of North Korea, as
that could be considered an act of war. Reuters and Dept. of Treasury

****
**** China angrily demands that the US retract the new North Korea sanctions
****

China angrily denounced the latest American sanctions on North Korea.
It was China's latest in a series of denunciations of any sanctions
against North Korea not imposed within the framework of the United
Nations. As I explained recently,

Russia and China have adopted a policy of using the UN Security
Council to control US foreign policy by demanding that any action be
approved by the UNSC where they have a veto. However, Russia and
China feel free to take any illegal action they wish without asking
for UNSC approval. So this is another example of that policy.

China's Foreign Ministry issued this statement on Saturday:

<QUOTE>"The Chinese government has been comprehensively and
strictly implementing the Security Council resolutions on the DPRK
and fulfilling its international obligations, and never allows any
Chinese citizen or company to engage in activities in violation of
the Security Council resolutions. If any breach of the Security
Council resolutions and Chinese laws and regulations is found out
through investigation, the Chinese side will seriously deal with
it in accordance with laws and regulations.

The Chinese side firmly opposes the US imposing unilateral
sanctions and "long-arm jurisdiction" on Chinese entities or
individuals in accordance with its domestic laws. We have lodged
stern representations with the US side over this, urging it to
immediately stop such wrongdoings so as not to undermine bilateral
cooperation on the relevant area."<END QUOTE>

Reports indicate that South Korea, Singapore, Japan and other Asian
countries are endorsing the US-imposed sanctions, and are willing to
cooperate in enforcing them. China evidently is not.

Mnuchin said he could not rule out the prospect of the United States
boarding and inspecting North Korean ships, but this presumably does
not apply to China's ships. However, there are Chinese companies
targeted in the sanctions, and they will be prohibited from financial
transactions in US banks and elsewhere. This is one more potential
flash point and the growing North Korea crisis, which may be close to
the day of its dénouement. Foreign Ministry of China and VOA and Reuters

Related Articles:

• North Korea insults South Korea with selection of Kim Yong-chol head of Olympics closing ceremony (23-Feb-2018)
  
  
• US considers military options as North Korea continues nuclear weapons development during Olympics (21-Feb-2018)
  
  
• US officials plan for military strike on North Korea and war (05-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Donald Trump in Seoul issues stern warning to North Korea -- and to China (09-Nov-2017)
  
  
• South Korea approves new THAAD deployment after North Korean missile test (30-Jul-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Kim Yong-chol,
China, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Marshall Islands,
Tanzania, Panama, Comoros, M.T. Koti, Steven Mnuchin,
South Korea, Singapore, Japan

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Warren Dew]

"Numerous administration officials have made it clear that North Korea will not be permitted to have a nuclear weapon"

Numerous administration officials have said that, but they haven't at all made it clear.  To me, their statements sounds mostly like empty posturing.

So will China agree to enforcement of sanctions through a blockade by accepting a Security Council resolution authorizing that?  If that happens, I may have to admit that Nikki Haley is competent after all.

[Tim Randal Walker]

So we are seeing realignments, with the the Iran/Indian deal, for example.

What other realignments may we see?