Generational Dynamics World View

[JDG 66]

(06-18-2018, 03:35 PM)David Horn Wrote: I suspect that Europewide tolerance of the ongoing immigrant flow may finally be hitting its peak... 

I remember you praising Sweden taking in 1 million immigrants from The Culture of Rape. I wasn't the only one who pointed out that would not turn out well. Go figure.

BTW, long time, no post, Mr. Horn!

[JDG 66]

(06-21-2018, 10:30 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ...The long-awaited assault by the regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad on the southwestern province of Daraa appears to have begun
on Thursday...

Back in the old 4TF, I remember Eric Meese predicting that there was no way that the Ba'athist regime would survive. He obviously had a much longer timeline for this downfall than I suspected at the time.

[Cynic Hero '86]

(06-22-2018, 03:00 PM)JDG 66 Wrote:

(06-21-2018, 10:30 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote: ...The long-awaited assault by the regime of Syria's president Bashar
al-Assad on the southwestern province of Daraa appears to have begun
on Thursday...

Back in the old 4TF, I remember Eric Meese predicting that there was no way that the Ba'athist regime would survive. He obviously had a much longer timeline for this downfall than I suspected at the time.

Boomers have been predicting the fall of the Baathist government of Syria since practically the moment "Arab spring" began. Assad has defied the odds before and will likely do so again.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 23-Jun-18 World View -- Desperate European Union considers 'Disembarkation Platforms' for migrants

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Desperate European Union considers 'Disembarkation Platforms' for migrants
  
• European Union very badly split on migration as Sunday's summit approaches
  

****
**** Desperate European Union considers 'Disembarkation Platforms' for migrants
****


Migrants in the Mediterranean on Thursday (dpa)

Both the United States and the European Union are in the midst of
total political chaos over the issue of migration, and are desperately
looking for ways to slow the potentially massive flood of migrants
from Central America and Africa, as we described a couple of days ago.

In America, the administration has been experimenting with abandoning
its "catch and release" program and keeping illegal immigrants in
detention centers. This continues to be a massively divisive issue,
especially related to the question of separating children from their
parents. But there has been no clear statement that this will work,
especially as courts and detention centers become flooded and
overcrowded.

The Council of the European Union is considering a similar idea,
though implemented differently. Migrants would be kept in detention
centers, but the centers would not be on European Union soil.
Instead, they would be in so-called "Disembarkation Platforms" that
would be located in non-EU countries.

According to the EU draft document

<QUOTE>"1. The European Council reconfirms that a
precondition for a functioning EU policy on migration is effective
control of the external borders. Since 2015 a number of measures
have been put in place to achieve that objective. As a result, the
number of detected illegal border crossings into the EU has been
brought down by 95% from its peak in October 2015.

2. The European Council is determined to continue and reinforce
this policy to prevent a return to the uncontrolled flows of 2015
and to further reduce illegal immigration on all
routes. Specifically as regards the Central Mediterranean route,
efforts to stop smugglers operating out of Libya should be further
intensified. The EU will continue to stand by Italy in this
respect, and will step up its support for the Libyan Coastguard,
coastal and Southern communities, humane reception conditions, and
voluntary humanitarian returns. ...

4. In order to establish a more predictable framework for dealing
with those who nevertheless set out to sea and are rescued in
Search And Rescue Operations, the European Council supports the
development of the concept of regional disembarkation platforms in
close cooperation with UNHCR and IOM. Such platforms should
provide for rapid processing to distinguish between economic
migrants and those in need of international protection, and reduce
the incentive to embark on perilous journeys."<END QUOTE>

Since there is no firm proposal, but only a draft document, possible
hosting countries for these disembarkation platforms have not been
officially named. However, unnamed EU officials have said that
Albania (which is a European country but not a European Union count)
and Tunisia have been suggested.

However, in response to a query about whether Albania would be a host,
the European Council responded, "No. The regions are not yet
identified as we are only talking about possibly exploring this
concept."

Tunisia has already rejected a similar proposal when it was made a few
months ago. Tunisia's ambassador said:

<QUOTE>"The proposal was put to the head of our government a
few months ago during a visit to Germany, it was also asked by
Italy, and the answer is clear: no!

We have neither the capacity nor the means to organize these
detention centers. We are already suffering a lot from what is
happening in Libya, which has been the effect of European
action."<END QUOTE>

African countries that might serve as hosts include Algeria, Egypt,
Libya, Tunisia, Niger and Morocco. However, Dimitris Avramopoulos,
the European commissioner for migration, said that no African country
has yet agreed to host migration center. Politico (EU) and European Council Draft Proposal (PDF) and Balkan Insight and Guardian (London)

UPDATE: A leaked plan by the US Navy reveals plans to construct
sprawling detention centers for tens of thousands of immigrants on
military bases in California, Alabama and Arizona. Time

****
**** European Union very badly split on migration as Sunday's summit approaches
****

Italy and Malta are refusing to take in 226 migrants on the
Mediterranean rescue ship Lifeline, thus precipitating the in a
continuing series of crises in Europe on migration. As of Friday
evening, the Lifeline is stranded in the middle of the Mediterranean
with no place to go.

Italy asked Malta to take in the Lifeline migrants. Malta refused,
saying that it was too small a country to handle a large number of
migrants. Italy said that Malta's response was "inhumane."

The EU has called for an emergency mini-summit meeting to be held in
Brussels tomorrow (Sunday, June 24) to find a way to handle the
migration issue, in advance of a major EU summit to be held on June
28-29.

However, Sunday's mini-summit became controversial almost as soon as
it was announced. Italy's prime minister Giuseppe Conte had indicated
that he wouldn't be attending, but he agreed to attend after Germany's
Chancellor Angela Merkel spoke to him and apparently begged him to
attend.

However, other anti-immigrant states including the Visegrad Group
(Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic) are staying away
from Sunday's meeting.

At a Visegrad meeting in Budapest on Thursday Poland's Prime Minister
Mateusz Morawiecki stated that "we don't belong to this migrant-loving
group of friends." That's an interesting statement, since it sounds
like he's saying, "We don't belong to the European Union."

Even if Italy is represented at the meeting, the country's new
far-right interior minister Matteo Salvini has said that Italy will
not be pushed around anymore.

Angela Markel is facing the collapse of her governing coalition, and
with it her entire government, unless she can come up with an EU
agreement within seven days -- and in particular, an agreement with
Italy.

The crucial issue is that Merkel's political opponent, Horst Seehofer,
is demanding that Germany not take in any more migrants, or, if a new
migrant arrives, he be sent back to the first EU country he entered.
This is completely unacceptable to Italy, since that the migrants that
come from Africa would almost always be sent back to Italy.

Horst Seehofer is not only the leader of the other party in Merkel's
governing coalition, he's also Germany's Interior Minister. Seehofer
has to power to issue an executive order that rejects refugees at the
Germany border, and he's making preparations to issue that order,
which is opposed by Merkel.

If Merkel fails to reach an agreement at next week's EU summit, then
Seehofer will issue the executive order. That will be in direct
conflict with Merkel's policy, so Merkel will have to fire Seehofer as
Interior Minister. That will cause the governing coalition to
collapse.

Whether or not Merkel's government collapses, the EU will face an
existential crisis this summer if, as expected, hundreds of thousands
of migrants cross the Mediterranean to reach Europe. Italy will not
permit rescue ships to disembark, meaning that these ships will then
head for France, Spain and Holland. In addition, Italy's new
government wants to deport half a million undocumented migrants, many
of whom are housed in squalid reception centers. More than 600,000
have reached Italy from Libya in the past four years. Euro News and BBC and AFP and Euro Intelligence

Related Articles:

• Europe and North America overwhelmed by growing migration crisis (21-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Italy's migration policy opens up battle lines within the EU (17-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Italy begs for help after 12,000 migrants arrive in four days (30-Jun-2017)
  
  
• EU migrant crisis moves to Italy as Austria begins closing border (13-Apr-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, disembarkation platforms,
Albania, Tunisia, Germany, Italy, Dimitris Avramopoulos,
Malta, Lifeline, Angela Merkel, Horst Seehofer,
Giuseppe Conte, Matteo Salvini,
Visegrad Group, Hungary, Poland, Mateusz Morawiecki,
Slovakia, Czech Republic

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 24-Jun-18 World View -- Ethiopia's prime minister Abiy Ahmediat escapes grenade attack at massive rally

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ethiopia's prime minister Abiy Ahmediat escapes grenade attack at massive rally
  
• New Ethiopia reforms face opposition by hardliners
  

****
**** Ethiopia's prime minister Abiy Ahmediat escapes grenade attack at massive rally
****


Abiy Ahmediat (L) was just finishing speaking to a massive audience ® when the grenade explosion occurred (Guardian)

Ethiopia's prime minister Abiy Ahmediat barely escaped a grenade
attack, just after finishing a speech deliver to tens of thousands of
supporters in the capital city Addis Ababa. One of the people at the
rally threw the grenade at Abiy, but missed the target.

According to one report, Abiy was saved because another participant in
the audience touched the hand of the person throwing the grenade,
causing it to fall without reaching the stage.

At least one person died from the explosion, and 155 people were
injured, including nine in critical condition.

Abiy was selected to take office in April in order to end growing
massive street protests by the Oromo tribe, protesting marginalization
inflicted by the governing Tigrays. The Tigrays have been in power
for 27 years, but comprise only 6% of the population. The Oromos, who
comprise 34% of the population, have suffered discrimination and
marginalization.

Mass anti-government protests began in Ethiopia in 2015, beginning in
the Oromia region, and then spread to other parts of Ethiopia,
especially the Amhara region. The Amharas comprise another 27% of the
population, and they joined the protests demanding an end to human
rights abuses as well political reforms and greater freedoms. In the
government crackdown, hundreds of people were killed, and more than
20,000 others were arrested.

By February of this year, the growing protests seemed to be
overwhelming, and prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn abruptly
resigned, citing ongoing "unrest and a political crisis." The
dominant Tigrays took the desperate step of replacing Hailemariam with
the Oromo leader Abiy Ahmediat, 42, in the hope of ending the chaos
and bloodshed.
BBC and Reuters and AP

****
**** New Ethiopia reforms face opposition by hardliners
****

Since being inaugurated, Abiy has been extremely aggressive in
implementing a number of reforms, including the following:

• Abiy announced the release of tens of thousands of prisoners,
  including many Oromos who had been jailed for peaceful anti-government
  demonstrations. In the time since Abiy took office, over 1,000 have
  already been released.
  
  
• He's replaced key generals in the army, in order to dampen ethnic
  tensions.
  
  
• He unblocked hundreds of websites and TV channels, including many
  that particularly targeted Oromos.
  
  
• He promised to liberalize the economy, including the opening of
  state-owned companies to private investment.
  
  
• Possibly most stunning, Abiy accepted a peace deal with the ancient enemy Eritrea
  that had been
  signed in 2000 after a two-year war, but had never been
  implemented.

Six people have been arrested following Saturday's grenade
attack, but no motive has been identified.

According to Ryan Cummings, a South Africa based security analyst:

<QUOTE>"The grenade attack in Addis may be well linked to
hardliners who do not want to see dialogue and conciliation with
Eritrea. However, it may also be in response to perceived Tigrayan
marginalization and/or dissent within the military. Either way, it
shows that the reforms are not window dressing."<END QUOTE>

Any of the reforms listed above might have infuriated some people,
especially ethnic Tigrays, who have been in power for 27 years,
but are only 6% of the population. For example, replacing key
generals would have struck at the heart of the army's control
of the population. The economic liberalization, including
selling off state-owned assets, could have cost Tigray executives
a great deal of money, and led to violent retaliation.

The deal with Eritrea could be particularly troubling, since
it calls for an exchange of regions of land. These regions are
small compared to the sizes of the two countries, but they're
densely populated. This means that many people living
in Eritrea will suddenly be living in Ethiopia, and vice-versa.
This has many implications -- changing tax collections and
administrative rules, and splitting families and neighbors,
for example.

As I described in my 2016 Generational history of Ethiopia and Eritrea
, Ethiopia is a
Christian country, and Eritrea is a Muslim countries. Eritrea was an
Italian colony in the 1800s, and both were in the late 1930s as
"Italian East Africa." Eritrea declared independence from Ethiopia in
1993, leading to the 1998-2000 border war, which led to the peace
agreement that is now being considered for implementation. From the
point of view of Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia is in a generational
Awakening era, like America and Europe in the 1960s, or like Iran
today, when mass protests are a frequent feature. Mass protests can
end temporarily, or cab be suppressed by violence from the security
forces, but they return.

The appointment of Oromo leader Abiy Ahmediat has put an end to the
massive protests by Oromos, but even with an Oromo leader, protests by
Oromos will return.

Abiy vows that the reforms will continue, despite Saturday's
explosion. Guardian (London) and Al-Jazeera and Addis (Ababa) Standard and Committee to Protect Journalists

Related Articles:

• In a surprise, Ethiopia accepts peace deal with Eritrea (06-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Ethiopia chooses an Oromo leader, as Kenya has farcical confrontation with the courts (30-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Thousands of Ethiopian Oromos flee into Kenya, threatening regional stability (15-Mar-2018)
  
  
• Ethiopia declares state of emergency after shock resignation of prime minister (17-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Ethiopia declares extraordinary six-month state of emergency (10-Oct-2016)
  
  
• Heavy fighting along Eritrea-Ethiopia border raises fears of war (14-Jun-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ethiopia, Abiy Ahmediat,
Oromos, Tigrays, Amharas, Hailemariam Desalegn,
Eritrea, Ryan Cummings, Italy

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

Good luck to this daring , courageous, and apparently thoughtful man. Ethiopia has been a political cesspool for a long time.

Here's something surprising. For a country with a largely temperate climate (surprising, considering that the country is so close to the equator, but it is mostly at high altitudes) it is doing very, very badly in economics. No, race is not the issue; 'race' is a moral and intellectual cop-out for hollow people. No, it is not because Ethiopia has a heritage of nothing but savagery. The country has had some eras of sophisticated civilization -- just look at the 'antiquities' section of a good art museum. Am I right to say that Ethiopia is the most under-rated country from antiquity?

I am one of those 'environmental determinists', someone who recognizes that geography is destiny for most countries. Take a look at the most developed countries, and you will find that most of them are in the zone of temperate climates. Mexico? Its center of civilization is Mexico city, a place with a climate basically like that of San Francisco (my idea of a climatic paradise) except with the rainy seasons inverted. Aside from cold deserts and extreme highlands, the only truly under-developed country in the temperate zones is North Korea, and that reflects a hideous government more than anything else. Or Ethiopia. Yes, it's close to the equator, but it is still mostly temperate. Mild climates are best for bringing out the sharpest thought for just about anything. Silicon Valley was not going to develop in the Sahara or Siberia. (OK, you can probably figure that I have read much Toynbee on this).

Marxist-Leninist socialism is a horror. Personal profit and loss does far better in enforcing economic reality than can any central planner. It's not that the country needs to go to an economic model out of the theories of Ayn Rand, a mirror-image Marxist almost as soulless as Lenin. The country needs to abandon the model of government ownership and command of productive business.

[John J. Xenakis]

(06-23-2018, 11:19 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > Good luck to this daring , courageous, and apparently thoughtful
> man. Ethiopia has been a political cesspool for a long time.

> Here's something surprising. For a country with a largely
> temperate climate (surprising, considering that the country is so
> close to the equator, but it is mostly at high altitudes) it is
> doing very, very badly in economics. No, race is not the issue;
> 'race' is a moral and intellectual cop-out for hollow people. No,
> it is not because Ethiopia has a heritage of nothing but
> savagery. The country has had some eras of sophisticated
> civilization -- just look at the 'antiquities' section of a good
> art museum. Am I right to say that Ethiopia is the most
> under-rated country from antiquity?

There is something surprising about how Ethiopia is handling the
current crisis. I've written about multiple countries that experience
brutal violence -- massacres, rapes, torture, arrests, other
atrocities -- during the Awakening era following a crisis civil war.
These countries include DRC, Zimbabwe, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi,
Cameroon and, outside of Africa, Syria, Iran, Cambodia. In each case,
the Awakening era violence is a follow-on to the war itself, where
people living in the same villages and streets have to deal with the
fact that both they and their neighbors committed such atrocities.
The level of Awakening era violence varies from mild to genocide, but
there's always some violence.

But that's not the path that Ethiopia is following. The Tigray
government, in power for 27 years, initially met the massive Oromo
protests with violence, but now they're trying something different --
appointing an Oromo leader. This is significantly different than the
other countries that I've mentioned.

Why did the minority Tigrays allow this? Perhaps it was the
mountains, but my guess is that it's the fact that the Tigrays have
only 6% of the population. My guess is that if the Tigrays had 20% of
the population, then they would have resorted to the same violence.

Whether this will lead to a better outcome in the long run remains to
be seen, and frankly I doubt it. In fact, yesterday's grenade attack
may trigger exactly the same kind of violence we've seen in the other
countries.

I'll mention one more example, Thailand. Thailand's last crisis war
was the Cambodian killing fields war, 1975-79, so Thailand was only
peripherally involved. Thailand tried to implement democratic
elections, but they kept getting "hijacked" with elections won by the
dark-skinned Thai-Thai indigenous majority, and not by the
light-skinned Thai-Chinese elite minority that were supposed to win.
So finally the army took over, and there are no longer open democratic
elections in Thailand, and the army doesn't dare reinstate them
because the indigenous Thai-Thais will win again.

So the Thailand example may show what's going to happen in Ethiopia.
Abiy Ahmediat is causing so much trouble for the Tigrays that they may
try the Thai solution of an army coup. We'll see.

(06-23-2018, 11:19 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: > I am one of those 'environmental determinists', someone who
> recognizes that geography is destiny for most countries. Take a
> look at the most developed countries, and you will find that most
> of them are in the zone of temperate climates. Mexico? Its center
> of civilization is Mexico city, a place with a climate basically
> like that of San Francisco (my idea of a climatic paradise) except
> with the rainy seasons inverted. Aside from cold deserts and
> extreme highlands, the only truly under-developed country in the
> temperate zones is North Korea, and that reflects a hideous
> government more than anything else. Or Ethiopia. Yes, it's close
> to the equator, but it is still mostly temperate. Mild climates
> are best for bringing out the sharpest thought for just about
> anything. Silicon Valley was not going to develop in the Sahara or
> Siberia. (OK, you can probably figure that I have read much
> Toynbee on this).

The concept of "Environmental Determinism" looks very interesting, and
it would integrate very nicely with generational theory.
Unfortunately it's too big a project for me to think about, but it's
worth considering.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 25-Jun-18 World View -- Concerns grow in Israel over Syrian and Russian assaults on Daraa and Quneitra provinces

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russian bombers join Syrian military assaulting Daraa province
  
• Jordan says it can't host a new wave of refugees from Syria
  
• Concerns grow in Israel over Syrian and Russian assaults on Daraa and Quneitra provinces
  

****
**** Russian bombers join Syrian military assaulting Daraa province
****


U.N. peacekeepers patrol Mount Bental, an observation post in the Golan Heights near the ceasefire line between Israel and Syria, October 23, 2017. (Reuters)

As we reported three days ago,
the
regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has begun an assault on
the southwestern province Daraa, which is on the border with Jordan.

There's also an expectation that it will soon be followed by another
assault, this time on the southwestern province Quneitra, which is on
the border with Israel-controlled Golan Heights.

On Saturday overnight, Russian warplanes joined the effort, and began
bombing towns in Daraa with dozens of airstrikes. The warplanes had
apparently come from the Russian-operated Hmeimim airbase in coastal
Syria.

The attacks on Daraa are violations of the "de-escalation zones"
agreement, based on last year's peace talks in Astana, Kazakhstan.
The peace talks were between Russia, Iran and Turkey, but they always
were a big joke, to be used as a cover for Shia/Alawite al-Assad to
continue his genocide and ethnic cleansing of Sunni civilians in
Syria. The agreement named four de-escalation zones where there were
supposed to be ceasefires, but Syria and Russia never had any
intention of honoring the ceasefire, and would resume ethnic cleansing
as soon as it was convenient to do so.

The ceasefire in each zone would be overseen by one nation, and
apparently the US became the overseer for the southwestern zone,
because nobody wanted to trust any Syrian, Iranian or Russian forces
near the border with Israel.

So now that Syria and Russia have thoroughly violated the other
de-escalation zones, it's the turn of the southwestern de-escalation
zone. The US State Dept. last week threatened "serious
repercussions" for violation of the de-escalation zone, without
specifying what those repercussions might be. However, on Sunday, the
US sent a message to Syrian rebel factions that they should not expect
US military support, and "you should not base your decisions on the
assumption or expectation of a military intervention by us." Whether
that represents a brand new example of the US setting a red line and
then refusing to enforce it is up to the perception of the observer.
Times of Israel and Al-Arabiya (Riyadh) and Middle East Eye

****
**** Jordan says it can't host a new wave of refugees from Syria
****

Daraa province lies along the border with Jordan and there have
already been reports last week that tens of thousands of people are
fleeing the violence, running south into Jordan to escape the bombing.

However, Jordan on Sunday said that is unable to host a new wave of
Syrian refugees. According to the United Nations, some 650,000 Syrian
refugees have registered with them in Jordan since the Syrian war
began seven years ago. Jordan itself estimates the actual number is
closer to 1.3 million people and says it has spent more than $10
billion hosting them.

Jordan's government spokesman Jumana Ghanimat said on Sunday:

<QUOTE>"The large number of Syrians we’re hosting in terms of
financial resources and infrastructure does not allow for the
reception of a new wave of asylum seekers

Jordan has not and will not abandon its humanitarian role and its
commitment to international charters, but it has exceeded its
ability to absorb (more refugees). Everyone should cooperate to
deal with any new wave of displacement within Syria’s
borders."<END QUOTE>

She added that Jordan would work with “concerned organisations” to
find an arrangement for the displaced inside Syria. Middle East Eye and Al-Arabiya (Riyadh)

****
**** Concerns grow in Israel over Syrian and Russian assaults on Daraa and Quneitra provinces
****

Although the full-scale assaults by Syrian and Russian forces on Daraa
province have not yet reached Quneitra province, which is on the
border with Israel-controlled Golan Heights, it's expected that they
will do so soon.

In anticipation of artillery and airstrikes in Quneitra, thousands of
Syrians have fled villages to makeshift camps near the border with
Israel. It's believed that Syrian artillery will avoid shelling near
the border, to avoid provoking a military response by Israel.

There are supposed to be peacekeeping forces inside Syria along the
border with Israel. This was set up in 1974 following the 1973 Yom
Kippur war. The United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF)
would have 1,250 peacekeepers.

Following the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, and after a
contingent of 22 peacekeepers from the Philippines were kidnapped and
held for three days by a group affiliated with Islamic State in 2013,
much of the UNDOF contingent moved to the Israeli side of the border,
where they've been less effective. With tensions growing on the
Syrian side of the border, Israel has requested that they move back to
that side, but they are reluctant to do so.

During the last few days, Syrian forces have taken control of an
abandoned United Nations peacekeeping post in the no-man’s land
between the Israeli and Syrian areas of the Golan Heights. The post,
abandoned by UNDOF troops on the Golan, is meant to be free of both
Israeli and Syrian troops, according to the cessation of hostilities
agreement between the two countries that followed the 1973 Yom Kippur
War. UNDOF has identified ongoing infrastructure work at the site.

In addition to a renewed military threat from Syrian forces, and
possible Iranian or Hezbollah forces embedded within them, there's
also the possibility of thousands of Syrian refugees crossing the
border into Israel, just as is happening along the border with Jordan.
Reuters and Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel and United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF)

Related Articles:

• Thousands of Syrians flee into Jordan to escape bombing in Daraa (22-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Russia, Iran, Turkey sign farcical Syria peace agreement (25-Jan-2017)
  
  
• Russia, Iran and Turkey announce yet another farcical new Syria peace plan (09-May-2017)
  
  
• Farcical Syria peace process 'proximity talks' to begin this week in Geneva (25-Jan-2016)
  
  
• Investigation reveals depraved new atrocities by Syria's Bashar al-Assad (08-Feb-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Russia,
Daraa Province, Quneitra Province, Golan Heights,
Hmeimim airbase, de-escalation zones, Israel,
Iran, Turkey, Russia, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Jordan, Jumana Ghanimat, Yom Kippur War,
United Nations Disengagement Observer Force, UNDOF,
Philippines, Hezbollah

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[David Horn]

(06-22-2018, 02:54 PM)JDG 66 Wrote:

(06-18-2018, 03:35 PM)David Horn Wrote: I suspect that Europewide tolerance of the ongoing immigrant flow may finally be hitting its peak... 

I remember you praising Sweden taking in 1 million immigrants from The Culture of Rape. I wasn't the only one who pointed out that would not turn out well. Go figure.

BTW, long time, no post, Mr. Horn!

Sweden may be arriving at Immigrant Maximum, for the same reason that a pitcher can't take more water: they're full.  For all of that, it's hard to say that things  are terrible there.  Certainly, they have had a difficult time absorbing that many non-Swedes, as we would have had absorbing 30+ Million in the US, but they are doing it very well, with minimal disruptions to daily life.  That's not to say 'no disruptions'.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 26-Jun-18 World View -- Massive Tehran riots strike deep into Iran government's legitimacy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Massive Tehran riots strike deep into Iran government's legitimacy
  
• Tehran demonstrators attack Iran's foreign policy
  
• Brief generational history of Iran's protests
  

****
**** Massive Tehran riots strike deep into Iran government's legitimacy
****


Protester in Tehran, Iran, on Monday with banner, 'We Want Democracy!' (Getty)

Thousands of Iranians on Monday took to the streets of Tehran, Iran's
capital city, to protest rising prices and a sinking economy, with
unemployment rates above 24%. Traders at Tehran's Grand Bazaar closed
their shops and joined the demonstrators, protesting the sharp fall in
Iran's rial currency versus the US dollar.

The prices of imported goods have skyrocketed because of the loss in
value of the rial. The official exchange rate is 42,000 rials per US
dollar. But in April, the black market exchange rate was 60,000.
Just one week ago, the exchange rate was 80,000. On Sunday, it shot
up by another 10,000 rials, to an exchange rate of 90,000 rials per US
dollar. This kind of increase means that the cost of an imported item
has now more than doubled in price, in just a few weeks.

It's apparently Sunday's apparent collapse in the value of the rial
that triggered the mass protests on Monday. Shopkeepers joined the
protesters chanting "Strike!" and "We don't want the dollar at 100,000
rials!"

In desperation, Iran's central bank plans to set up a "secondary
currency market" by next week. The details have yet to be released,
but the idea seems to be that new regulations would prevent merchants
from raising prices when the value of the rial fall.

Needless to say this is infuriating to merchants and shopkeepers who
can see that they're going to be required to pay more for imported
goods, but that there will be new regulations forbidding them from
charging higher prices for the same items. This is the same kind of
thing that has been tried in Venezuela and Zimbabwe with disastrous
results.

In late December of last year, there were similar economic protests
that spread to some 75 cities and towns, resulting in 25 people killed
and nearly 5,000 arrested. NBC News and BBC and
Tehran Times and Radio Farda

****
**** Tehran demonstrators attack Iran's foreign policy
****

As happened in December's massive demonstrations, the protests
quickly spread from economics to foreign policy and to questioning
the competence of the entire government.

In my article on the December protests,
I listed about 20 of the protests that were being
chanted, many of them quite vicious. One chant that was
prominent on Monday that didn't appear in my previous list
is "Death to Palestine!"

This is a particularly ironic chant because it cuts into the entire
ethos of the Islamic government. The two supreme leaders, Ayatollah
Rouhollah Khomeini and Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, used a variety of
artifices to justify their mass slaughter, torture, rape, and
extrajudicial arrests of innocent peaceful protesters, but the main
ones have always been to blame Iran's problems on the Big Satan (the
United States) and the Little Satan (Israel). As I've been reporting
for years, the young generations of Iran are generally pro-Western and
pro-American, and this chant makes it clear that they're pro-Israel --
or at least not anti-Israel.

The protesters' objections to Iran's foreign policy ties back again to
the economy. Iran is spending enormous amounts of money supporting
Bashar al-Assad in Syria, supporting the Houthis in Yemen, supporting
Hezbollah in Lebanon, and supporting Hamas in Gaza. After the nuclear
deal was signed in 2015, and Iran received a billions of dollars in
released funds, instead of spending the money on the economy, the
perception among Iranians is that they wasted the money on Syria,
Yemen, Hezbollah, and Hamas.

I particularly have to shake my head at Iran's support for Hamas,
using Iranian-supplied weapons to attack Israel. Hamas is a Sunni
terrorist group, and they will never accept hegemony from Shia Iran.
They're happy to take any free money and weapons supplied by Iran, of
course, but it shows the depth the delusions suffered by 78-year-old
Khamenei that he thinks he can govern the Sunni Palestinians -- or
even more delusional, if he believes that al-Mahdi, the hidden Imam
from Shia theology, is about to return and convert the world to Islam,
rewarding him for supplying arms to Hamas.

With the Trump administrations imposing new sanctions, the huge stream
of money that Iran started receiving in 2015 is now going to be
sharply reduced. This is providing the government with the
opportunity to blame Iran's economic troubles on the US, when in fact
the economy would be in much better shape if the stream of money
hadn't been wasted on foreign wars.
Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel and Asharq Al-Awsat (Saudi Arabia)

****
**** Brief generational history of Iran's protests
****

One of the many ironies of Monday's protests is that they were led by
merchants and shopkeepers in Tehran's Grand Bazaar. Merchants and
shopkeepers were strong supporters of Khomeini at the start of the
Great Islamic Revolution in 1979, because they were highly critical of
the economic policies of the secular but autocratic government of
Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi. Not surprisingly, after 40 years of the
hardline extremist Sharia law imposed by Khomeini and Khamenei and the
resulting economic disaster, two of the chants that could be heard on
Monday were "Death to the dictator!" and "Reza Shah, Bless Your Soul!"

But the significance of Monday's protests goes back much farther
than that.

During the 1800s, Iran (Persia) was repeatedly humiliated in border
clashes with Britain and Russia. So the public had had enough when
Iran's government granted a tobacco concession to Britain in 1890.
This concession gave granted a monopoly on both the purchase and sale
of tobacco within Persia to an English company for a period of fifty
years. The tobacco concession struck at the heart of Iran's culture.
At this time, nearly everyone in Iran, both men and women, used
tobacco products, as they gathered to smoke and drink coffee. The
tobacco merchants felt their livelihood threatened, and enlisted the
help of other bazaar merchants to organize anti-government protests.
In the northern regions of Iran under Russian influence, including
today's Azerbaijan, support for the protests was strong because the
monopoly had been granted to the British, locking out the Russians.

The result was the Tobacco Revolt (1890-92). The Shah was forced to
rescind the tobacco concession, but the protests continued, and dozens
of protesters were killed before the protests fizzled. The Tobacco
Revolt was a major event in Iranian history, with implications far
beyond the income of tobacco merchants.

In the end, the issues raised by the Tobacco Revolt were not about
tobacco production, but about the right of the Shah to have the power
to grant concessions to other nations without the approval of the
people. Muslim countries had had Sharia law for centuries, based
on Roman law but merged with the core concepts of Islam. But Sharia
law had to do with rules for ordinary people, and placed no
restrictions at all on the what the Shah could do.

That's when the people of Iran looked across the Atlantic and saw what
America had done in 1789, ratifying the Constitution of the United
States, and the related document, the Bill of Rights. Becoming aware
of the US Constitution, and of the French Revolution, the people of
Iran began to demand their own constitution.

Iran had two generational crisis civil wars during the 1900s, the
second one being the Islamic revolution in 1979. But the first one
was the Constitutional Revolution of 1905-09.

The Tobacco Revolt provided a template to the public in 1905, when
there were protests over an increase in the price of sugar. The
government blamed the sugar merchants, and several sugar merchants
were beaten and tortured. A leading preacher and radical
constitutionalist, Seyyed Jamal al-Din Isfahani attacked the
government from the pulpit, leading to public protests, especially
from students, merchants and shopkeepers.

By January 1906, the Shah agreed to the public demands, including
formation of a house of justice, or consultative assembly. The Shah
did not follow up on his promises, leading to a confrontation
involving a group of clerics and their students in which a student was
killed. This triggered wider protests, with over 12,000 protesters
demanding the formation of a majlis, or parliament. The first majlis
convened in October 1906 and set about the task of writing a
constitution. An ailing Shah decreed the document they produced into
law in December 1906, a few days before his death.

The Shah's son became the new Shah in January 1907. He was against
the constitution of 1906 ratified during regime of his father. Iran
was still under occupation of Russian forces in the north and British
forces in the south, and both the Russian and British forces supported
the Shah in opposing the constitution and the Majlis. On June 23,
1908, Russia's Cossack Brigade shelled and plundered the parliament
building, executing several constitutionalist leaders. The Shah and
the Cossack Brigade ruled until July 1909, when pro-Constitution
forces marched from Iran's province of Azerbaijan to Tehran, defeating
the Cossacks, deposing the Shah, and re-establishing the constitution.

That was the climax of Iran's Constitutional Revolution. So finally,
over a century after America's written constitution and the French
Revolution and its imposition of law, Iran had officially become a
country ruled by law, not by leaders who are above the law.

They say that history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. Just as
the Tobacco Revolt was a precursor to the Constitutional Revolution,
the protests arising from the White Revolution of 1963 were the
precursor to the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

The White Revolution was actually a government program instituted by
the Shah. It included land reform, the nationalization of forests,
the sale of state-owned enterprises to the private sector, a
profit-sharing plan for industrial workers, and the formation of a
Literacy Corps to eradicate illiteracy in rural areas. The White
Revolution also granted Iranian women the right to vote, increased
women’s minimum legal marriage age to 18, and improved women’s legal
rights in divorce and child custody matters.

These reforms were opposed Iran’s clergy, in particular Ayatollah
Khomeini. Khomeini led the June 5, 1963 uprising, opposing the Shah
and the White Revolution. In the course of this uprising, the
authorities quelled resistance among the religious students in a
seminary in the city of Qum, and a number of students lost their
lives. Khomeini’s activities eventually led to his exile to Iraq in
1964.

The protests of both the Tobacco Revolt and the White Revolution were
led by élites. In 1890, the élites were the tobacco merchants. In
1962, it was religious leaders who feared that they would lose their
influence and control over sectors of society where they were
preeminent. Things like land reform, improving literacy through
better education, and granting women additional rights could all be
viewed as threatening to the clerics and imams and their areas of
traditional authority.

The leader of the insurgents in Iran's 1979 civil war was Ayatollah
Ruhollah Khomeini, who had led the anti-government protests in the
1963 White Revolution, and ended up seeing hundreds of his followers
killed, after which he was sent into exile by Mohammad Reza Shah
Pahlavi. When Khomeini made his triumphant return from 16 years of
exile to Tehran on February 1, 1979, he was ready for revenge.

Khomeini had already gotten his revenge on the Shah. Although he had
been in exile, he was able in 1978-79 to incite widespread anti-Shah
uprisings based on discontent with a populist ideology tied to Islamic
principles and calls for the overthrow of the Shah. The uprisings
forced the Shah's government to collapse and, suffering from cancer,
the Shah went into exile and left Iran on January 16, 1979. He lived
in Egypt, Morocco, the Bahamas, and Mexico before going to the United
States for treatment of lymphatic cancer, where he died.

Thousands of people were killed in Iran's civil war, including
thousands who were jailed or executed by Khomeini. Khomeini claims
that 60,000 people were killed. Here's a paragraph from the preamble
to Khomeini's 1979 constitution:

<QUOTE>"After slightly more than a year of continuous and
unrelenting struggle, the sapling of the Revolution, watered by
the blood of more than 60,000 martyrs and 100,000 wounded and
disabled, not to mention billions of tumans' worth of property
damage, came to bear fruit amidst the cries of "Independence!
Freedom! Islamic government!" This great movement, which attained
victory through reliance upon faith, unity, and the decisiveness
of its leadership at every critical and sensitive juncture, as
well as the self-sacrificing spirit of the people, succeeded in
upsetting all the calculations of imperialism and destroying all
its connections and institutions, thereby opening a new chapter in
the history of all embracing popular revolutions of the
world."<END QUOTE>

However, analysts outside of Iran question the 60,000 figure, and give
much lower estimates of 3,000-4,000.

But that wasn't the end of it. Ayatollah Khomeini's bloodthirsty
lusts reached a kind of peak in 1988 when he ordered the massacre of
tens of thousands of political prisoners and political enemies,
especially those in the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI
or MEK). He issued this decree in July 1988:

<QUOTE>"Whoever at any stage continues to belong to the PMOI
must be executed. Annihilate the enemies of Islam immediately!
...Those who are in prisons throughout the country and remain
steadfast in their support for PMOI are waging war on God and are
condemned to execution.... It is naive to show mercy to those who wage
war on God."<END QUOTE>

That wasn't the end of it either. When students protested in 1999,
Ayatollah Khamenei ordered huge, bloody massacres, rapes, torture, and
other atrocities. The same happened in 2009, to students protesting
the election.

The 1999 protests marked a major turning point in Iran's government,
because it was the first time that it was clear that younger
generations would not accept the extremist rule of Khamenei, and that
the Great Islamic Revolution was a complete failure as an Islamic
ideal, and instead was just another cheap, vicious dictatorship, led
by an old geezer who has abandoned righteous Shia theology for bloody
oppression.

Ever since the Constitutional Revolution, the people of Iran have
demanded that their leaders follow the law, as defined in the
constitution. Here's one more excerpt from Khomeini's 1979
constitution:

<QUOTE>"Islamic Government is designed on a basis of
"religious guardianship" as put forward by Imam Khomeini at the
height of the intense emotion and strangulation (felt) under the
despotic regime. This created a specific motivation and new field
of advance for the Muslim people; and opened up the true path for
the religious fight of Islam, pressing forward the struggle of the
committed Muslim combatants, inside and outside the country. ...

The publication by the [Reza Shah] regime on [January 7, 1978] of
the letter which insulted the sacred order of the clergy, and in
particular the Imam Khomeini, hastened this movement. It caused
the people's anger to explode all over the country. In an effort
to control this volcano of popular anger, the regime tried to
suppress the protest uprising by bloodshed. This very fact set
more blood pulsing through the veins of the Revolution. Continuing
revolutionary passion at the time of the seven-day and forty-day
commemoration of the martyrs of the Revolution, added on an
ever-increasing scale to the vitality and ardor and fervent unity
of the movement throughout the country. It continued and extended
the people's upheaval in all the country's organizations by a
general strike and joining in street demonstrations while actively
seeking the downfall of the despotic regime. Widespread
co-operation of men and women of all classes, and of religious and
political groups, in this struggle, took place in decisive and
dramatic fashion In particular women joined openly on all the
scenes of this great Holy War, ever more actively and
extensively. Such a scene would be a mother with a child in her
bosom hastening to the battlefield and facing machine gun fire
This large section of society took a main and decisive part in the
struggle."<END QUOTE>

Reading this excerpt from Khomeini's own 1979 constitution makes it
clear that he has a great deal to fear. Iran is coming full circle.
The students and merchants of today have read the constitution, and
are following its prescriptions -- popular anger, uprisings, strikes,
street demonstrations, even facing gun fire -- while actively seeking
the downfall of this new despotic regime. It's something that
Khomeini himself should have predicted. Homa Katouzian and Iran's Constitution

Related Articles

• Two protesters killed in southern Iran in latest violent clashes with police (19-May-2018)
  
  
• Anti-government, anti-war and economic protests spread across Iran (30-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Theological split in Iran widens as opposition protests continue (09-Nov-2009)
  
  
• Tens of thousands protest in Tehran after Rafsanjani says Iran is 'in crisis' (18-Jul-2009)
  
  
• Iranian police swoop down on women with loose headscarves (25-Apr-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iran, Persia, Tehran, Grand Bazaar,
Ayatollah Rouhollah Khomeini, Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei,
Palestine, Israel, Hamas, Gaza, Hezbollah, Syria, Lebanon,
Houthis, Yemen, al-Mahdi, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi,
Britain, Russia, Cossack Brigade,
Tobacco Revolt, Constitutional Revolution,
White Revolution, Islamic Revolution

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 27-Jun-18 World View -- Tens of thousands fleeing Syrian bombs trapped at closed Jordan border

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Tens of thousands fleeing Syrian bombs trapped at closed Jordan border
  
• Israeli missiles strike Iranian cargo plane near Damascus
  

****
**** Tens of thousands fleeing Syrian bombs trapped at closed Jordan border
****


Area of Daraa after Syrian bombing (Sky News)

Daraa province in southwestern Syria is facing a new humanitarian
crisis as the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad steps up
ground attacks, backed up by airstrikes from Russian warplanes.

Following the usual pattern, al-Assad treats all the people in the
region, including ordinary civilians, women and children, as
"terrorists," and uses that as a justification for genocide and ethnic
cleansing. The attack on Daraa has just begun in the last week, and
is targeting 750,000 people in Daraa.

Already, 45,000 people had been forced to leave their homes and flee.
Last week, it was reported that tens of thousands fled into Jordan to
escape the violence. However, reports in the last few days indicate
that Jordan has closed its border, and the Daraa residents are trapped
inside Syria as regime forces and Russian warplanes close in.

When Jordan closed the border in 2014, it led to a humanitarian crisis
as some 60,000 people were forced into a lawless ad-hoc camp,
inaccessible to any medical or humanitarian aid and controlled by
exploitative criminal gangs.

Amnesty International has warned Jordan of the "dire consequences"
that resulted from the previous closure of the border and said tens of
thousands were still stranded in "deplorable" conditions. A spokesman
said that Jordan has a duty to open the border:

<QUOTE>"Jordan has a duty to protect refugees from Syria
fleeing conflict and persecution, and to allow them to enter the
country. Closing the border to people in need of protection
violates Jordan's international obligations."<END QUOTE>

Syrian forces are remaining in Daraa province so far, and have not
gone farther west into neighboring Quneitra province, which is on the
border with Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Israel is watching
these movements very closely, because the Syrian army could attack
targets in Israel from Quneitra, resulting in a larger war. Israel
has already made it clear that it will not tolerate Iranian or
Hezbollah forces near the Golan border, and has previously targeted
Iranian weapons systems and other Iranian targets approaching the
border.

The US is receiving some criticism for having apparently set a red
line last week, when the US State Dept. announced that if Syria and
Russia broke the ceasefire in Daraa, there would be "firm and
appropriate measures," and is now backing down by notifying the Free
Syrian Army (FSA) that they should not expect any support from the US
military. Sky News and Reuters and Washington Post and Independent (London)

****
**** Israeli missiles strike Iranian cargo plane near Damascus
****

Syrian state media says that two Israeli missiles struck targets near
Damascus airport early on Tuesday morning. Other sources claime that
the missiles an Iranian cargo plane, which was landing at Damascus
International Airport.

It's not clear whether they were ground to ground missiles or launched
from a warplane. Israel has followed its usual policy of not
commenting on foreign news reports.

Debka is reporting that the missiles hit an Iranian air force Ilyushin
Il-76 cargo plane unloading munitions at Damascus military airport
early Tuesday. The explosions caused the plane to burst into flame
with a number of unidentified casualties. Debka's reports are written
from Israel's point of view, based on military and intelligence
sources that provide valuable insights. However, as usual, I have to
warn readers that they definitely do get some things wrong. Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA, Damascus) and Al-Jazeera and Debka

Related Articles

• Thousands of Syrians flee into Jordan to escape bombing in Daraa (22-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Israel's warplanes strike weapons depot inside Syria near Damascus (28-Apr-2017)
  
  
• Israel bombs targets in Syria with Russia's tacit cooperation (06-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Syria and allies threaten war with Israel in the Golan Heights (22-May-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Daraa province,
Jordan, Quneitra province, Free Syrian Army, FSA,
Israel, Golan Heights, Iran, Hezbollah

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 28-Jun-18 World View -- Zimbabwe president Mnangagwa blames Grace Mugabe for bomb blast at rally

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Zimbabwe president Mnangagwa blames Grace Mugabe for bomb blast at rally
  
• Zimbabwe elections overshadowed by the country's dark past
  

****
**** Zimbabwe president Mnangagwa blames Grace Mugabe for bomb blast at rally
****


Three presidential candidates (L to R): Emmerson Mnangagwa, Joice Mujuru, Nelson Chamisa (Independent-zw)

Zimbabwe's President Emmerson Mnangagwa is blaming a political group
linked to Grace Mugabe, the wife of former president Robert Mugabe,
for a bomb explosion that occurred last Saturday (June 23) during a
Mnangagwa rally, killing two and injuring dozens. The obvious target
was Mnangagwa, but he escaped unharmed.

Fearing a new terror attack on Wednesday, Mnangagwa canceled a rally
scheduled for Wednesday, his first campaign rally since the attack on
Saturday.

Wednesday's rally took place without him. It was in the city of
Hwange, which is an opposition stronghold, like Bulawayo, which is
where Saturday's attack occurred.

Although Mnangagwa did not directly accuse Grace Mugabe of being in
involved in Saturday's bombing, he accused the Generation 40 (G40)
group of Grace Mugabe supporters of being behind the bombing. The G40
group is a group of younger members of Mnangagwa's and Mugabe's
Zanu-pf political party. Grace Mugabe is 52 years old, while her
husband Robert Mugabe is 94.

A former member of the G40 group, former government minister Jonathan
Moyo, said that the explosion "smacks of an inside job."

The implication is that the Mnangagwa election team staged the
explosion in order to justify a crackdown on the opposition prior to
next month's general elections, scheduled for July 30. It seems
unlikely that the bombing was an inside job, however, because of the
large number of casualties.

Even so, there's a widespread suspicion that Mnangagwa will use the
explosion as an excuse for security crackdowns that will guarantee the
election of him and his Zanu-pf party. Under Robert Mugabe, extreme
violence was used for decades to keep Zanu-pf in power.

Opposition leader Nelson Chamisa, head of the opposition party
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), has directly suffered election
related violence under the Mugabe regime. He said on Wednesday:

<QUOTE>"It shows you that things can turn ugly, it has been
ugly in the past and over the past 38 years we have had disputed
elections, violent elections, state-sponsored violence and we are
likely to see that ugly feature rearing its head once more.

Zimbabweans are vulnerable ... the electorate is vulnerable,
political players like myself are vulnerable. I have scars on
account of political violence in the past, so it's something we
have budgeted for."<END QUOTE>

However, Mnangagwa is trying to reassure the international community
that Zimbabwe has changed, and that it's once again a good idea for
foreign investors to invest in Zimbabwe. In particular, he's promised
that the election will be free and fair, and open to international
observers. He has invited election observers from the United States,
the European Union and elsewhere for the first time in 16
years. Mugabe rejected Western observers, accusing them of bias.

In order to reassure both voters and foreign investors, all 23
president candidates running in the July 30 elections signed a "peace
pledge" on Wednesday committing themselves and their political parties
to a peaceful campaign ahead of the elections. BBC and Herald (Zimbabwe) and Reuters and Guardian (London) and AP

****
**** Zimbabwe elections overshadowed by the country's dark past
****

During last year's chaos in Zimbabwe's capital city Harare, president
Robert Mugabe fired his vice-president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, so that
Grace Mugabe could succeed him. This triggered a series of events
that led to the forced resignation of Mugabe, and his replacement with
Mnangagwa as the new president.

There was a great deal of vitriolic hostility between the two men last
year, and it was joined by Mugabe's wife Grace Mugabe, who blamed
Mnangagwa for her husband's downfall.

However, the vitriol was only recent, since the two men worked closely
together since independence in 1981.

They're both in the Shona tribe, and they both are responsible for
Operation Gukurahundi, the genocidal war crime that brought in North
Korean soldiers to help exterminate tens of thousands of civilians in
the hated Ndebele tribe in the early 1980s.

They've both cooperated in turning Zimbabwe into a police state, where
anyone who speaks against the government was likely to be arrested,
tortured and killed. This is particularly true of the members of the
Ndebele tribe that managed to survive Operation Gukurahundi.

They both worked together on Mugabe's "indigenization" program, which
threw out farm and business owners who knew how to run a farm or a
business, and replaced them with thugs and cronies from Mugabe's and
Mnangagwa's Shona tribe who didn't know how to run a farm or business.
Over three decades, Mugabe and Mnangagwa turned Rhodesia, which was a
wealthy country and the breadbasket of southern Africa, into today's
Zimbabwe, which is an economic basket case.

Mnangagwa is now trying to convince foreigners to invest in Zimbabwe
again. In order to do that he's going to have convince investors that
Operation Gukurahundi and indigenization are in the past, and won't be
repeated in the future, so that investors' money will be safe. This
is going to be a tough sell for Mnangagwa, since there are still a lot
of people in Zimbabwe, especially people in the Nbdele tribe, that
believe that there is continuing violent discrimination against people
in the Nbdele tribe, and that Mnangagwa will not hesitate to use
"indigenization" to confiscate a farm or a business to aware to one of
his Shona cronies in return for political favor. The Zimbabawean and Al Jazeera and Independent (Zimbabwe)

Related Articles

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• Zimbabwe bans food imports as new 'bond note' currency crashes (21-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Puerto Rico - three amigos in Marxist economic destruction (01-Jul-2016)
  
  
• Zimbabwe's 90 year old 'Liberation Hero' Robert Mugabe wins another election (04-Aug-2013)
  
  
• 'Liberation Hero' Robert Mugabe now destroys Zimbabwe with cholera (08-Dec-2008)
  
  
• Zimbabwe's 'Liberation Hero' president Robert Mugabe continues to destroy his country (04-May-2008)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Zimbabwe, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Zanu-pf, Shona,
Nelson Chamisa, Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, Nbdele,
Generation 40, G40, Jonathan Moyo,
Robert Mugabe, Grace Mugabe, Operation Gukurahundi, indigenization

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 29-Jun-18 World View -- Australia passes foreign influence laws, targeting China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Australia passes foreign influence laws, targeting China
  
• China's tech giant Huawei considered a threat to Australia's security
  
• China activists accuse Australia of anti-China racism
  

****
**** Australia passes foreign influence laws, targeting China
****


Chinese students in Sydney Australia

Australia's parliament on Thursday passed sweeping new foreign
influence laws targeting secret attempts by foreign spies to influence
Australia's politicians, media, ethnic groups and civil society
organizations. Espionage, treason and treachery offences will be
expanded, with harsh criminal penalties. The bills also set up a
register of foreign lobbyists, forcing anyone working in Australia “on
behalf” of a foreign government to publicly reveal themselves.

The laws respond to allegations that foreign countries are trying
access classified information about Australia's global alliances and
military, as well as economic and energy systems.

Australia's Attorney-General Christian Porter said:

<QUOTE>"This sends a strong message to those who would seek
to undermine our way of life that Australia is acutely aware of
activities against our national security and will continue to take
the steps necessary to thwart their activities."<END QUOTE>

The laws do not mention China, but it's clear that China and Chinese
agents are the targets of the laws.

Lawmakers who opposed the laws said that they would criminalize free
speech and non-violent protest, and would allow prosecution of
journalists for simply possessing classified information, though some
amendments were added to the original bill to answer these concerns.

Relations between Australia and China have been in crisis for over a
month, after an Australian MP, Andrew Hastie, delivered a speech to
parliament accusing a prominent wealthy Australian politician, Dr. Chau
Chak-wing, of being linked to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and of bribing a United Nations official
to obtain UN backing for a number of multi-billion dollar
Chinese infrastructure projects. According to Hastie, Chau Chak-wing
was a prominent member of Beijing's "United Front Work Department"
(UFWD), which is an international Chinese coercive propaganda
organization described by Chinese leaders as "Magic Weapons."
Sydney Morning Herald and Special Broadcasting Service (Australia) and BBC

****
**** China's tech giant Huawei considered a threat to Australia's security
****

Huawei is the world’s third-largest smartphone maker, behind only
Apple and Samsung. It is also the world's largest supplier of
wireless and telecommunications networking equipment. It was founded
in 1987 by Ren Zhengfei, a former People’s Liberation Army (PLA)
engineer, and is suspected of developing projects that the PLA could
use for identity theft worldwide, and take control of wireless
networks worldwide from China.

As I've described previously, in the past I spent several years
developing embedded software in C for microprocessors, and so I know
personally that the capabilities described above can be implemented
and, in fact, can be implemented easily. Furthermore, if the code is
written so that the secret functions are only invoked when the device
receives a secret 1024-bit code, then it's impossible to detect the
functions through testing. And in view of China's illegal actions in
the South China Sea and elsewhere, we have to assume that if it can be
done easily, then it will have been done.

Australian security agencies are saying that Huawei products are a
threat to Australian security. Huawei has been bidding to take a role
in as Australia's high-speed internet provider, but has been facing
distrust from Australian politicians and security agencies.

At the same time, a new report finds that Huawei is the
biggest corporate sponsor of overseas travel for Australian
politicians.

Huawei paid for 12 trips by Australian federal politicians to the
company’s headquarters in Shenzhen, including business class flights,
local travel, accommodation and meals since 2010. Politicians who
took those trips include Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, Trade Minister
Steve Ciobo and former Trade Minister Andrew Robb.

Solomon Islands dropped plans for a billion-dollar internet cable
connecting Australia with the Solomon Islands after Australia this
month promised hundreds of millions of dollars to ensure Huawei did
not build the cable, because of security risks. News.com (Australia) and Reuters

****
**** China activists accuse Australia of anti-China racism
****

Australia has a long history of antipathy towards Chinese in Australia
since European settlement, starting with race riots amid the gold rush
of the 1850s and '60s. With hundreds of Chinese prospectors injured
and evicted from mining sites, the unrest prompted immigration rules
that led to the infamous "White Australia" policy, which existed in
various forms from 1901 until 1973.

Chinese activists have increasingly been saying that anti-Chinese
racism is rising again, and that it's the cause of anxiety about
Chinese influence in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the United
States, Europe, and other countries.

However, there are plenty of reasons for anxiety about China's
intention that have absolutely nothing to do with racism. China is
conducting well-publicized illegal activities in the South China Sea,
building a massive military force with the intention of taking control
of the whole region. China is also making military threats against
India, Japan and other countries where the government wish to
confiscate a portion of the regions they govern.

Equally troubling is China's "United Front Work Department" (UFWD),
which is an international Chinese coercive propaganda organization
described by Chinese leaders as "Magic Weapons." The UFWD is in
contact with over a million Chinese expats in countries around the
world, and uses a variety of techniques to coerce them to influence
local politicians and media to support China's policies in a variety
of areas, including Taiwan policy, criminality in the South China Sea,
One Belt One Road, the Dalai Lama, and so forth.

There are 150,000 Chinese students in Australia, and there have been
numerous incidents where Chinese students complained to school
officials that lectures or course materials made them "fell
uncomfortable" because they didn't "show respect" for China. They've
complained about materials that describe Taiwan as a country, about a
map that shows Indian territory claimed by China as Indian territory.
These complaints were accompanied by demands that the materials
be changed.

Now imagine any Western country trying the same thing. Imagine an
agency in the Trump administration telling American students in
universities overseas to complain when the university lectures and
course materials contradict American policy as defined by the Trump
administration. The international outrage would be enormous, and none
of the American student expats would do as they has they had been
told anyway.

By Western standards, what China is doing appears to be almost like
mind control. It's amazing that an agency like the UFWD exists, and
it's amazing that Chinese students around the world do as they're told
-- although the latter could be explained by the fact that China can
threaten punishment for any student that disobeys orders.

America does have an agency that sends people to countries around the
world -- the Peace Corps. "The Peace Corps is a service opportunity
for motivated changemakers to immerse themselves in a community
abroad, working side by side with local leaders to tackle the most
pressing challenges of our generation."

I've never heard anyone describe the Peace Corps as a "Magic Weapon"
or as any kind of weapon. America has the Peace Corps, to help bring
peace, and China has the "Magic Weapon Corps" to coercively spread
Chinese propaganda.

So if people in Australia, Canada, the US or any other country
is anxious about the Chinese, the Chinese have only themselves
to blame, and it has nothing to do with racism.

China's policies could have serious consequences for Chinese expats.
In World War II, the American government interred Japanese-American
citizens but not German-American citizens. There are probably a lot
of reasons for that, not the least of which is that there were too
many German-Americans to even think about interring. But the main
thing is that there was a great deal of mutual American-Japanese
xenophobia prior to the war, and that turned into internment during
the war. China's coercive propaganda policies applied to Chinese
expats to the point of apparent mind control could, in some future
circumstances, lead to the internment of Chinese expats in Australia,
Canada or the United States. So the Chinese policies may be "Magic
Weapons," but they could have severe consequences for the Chinese
themselves. BBC and The Diplomat and Australian Broadcasting and Peace Corps and Australia-China Student Association

Related Articles

• Australia-China relations in crisis after revelation of Chinese bribery scandal (24-May-2018)
  
  
• New book documents extensive Chinese infiltration into Australia's organizations (26-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Concerns grow over China's covert infiltration into New Zealand's government (16-Feb-2018)
  
  
• China-Australia relations plummet over China's illegal militarization of South China Sea (16-Dec-2017)
  
  
• Australian MP Clive Palmer shocks country with anti-China rant (21-Aug-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Australia, China, Christian Porter,
Chau Chak-wing, Andrew Hastie, United Front Work Department, UFWD,
Huawei, Ren Zhengfei, Julie Bishop, Steve Ciobo, Andrew Robb,
Solomon Islands, White Australia, New Zealand, Canada,
South China Sea, India, Japan, Magic Weapons, Peace Corps

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 30-Jun-18 World View -- EU leaders agree on fantasy migration plan after all-night meeting

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• EU leaders agree on fantasy migration plan after all-night meeting
  
• Italy backs down from threat to veto the agreement over Dublin regulation
  

****
**** EU leaders agree on fantasy migration plan after all-night meeting
****


Angela Merkel speaks with other country leaders at EU Summit on Thursday and Friday (Getty)

As we reported a week ago,
the
Europeans were desperately searching for a solution to the migration
problem, and they were considering a form of detention center called
"Disembarkation Platforms," to be located in northern Africa, where
newly arrived migrants could be taken initially for processing of
asylum requests.

The promise was that a detailed plan would be worked out during the
the major EU Summit meeting held in Brussels the last two days. The
leaders met all day Thursday and then long into the night, finally
announcing an agreement at 4:30 am. However, the agreement had no
more details than the original proposal, and appears to be a fudge.

(Note to lexicographers: I've been seeing the word "fudge" a lot
more lately. Besides a chocolate goodie, a fudge is something that's
ambiguous, deceitful or a compromise. It seems to have replaced the
phrase that was commonly used during Greece's financial crisis:
"kicking the can down the road." In either case, they refer to a
non-agreement that let's everyone congratulate one another on having
reached a deal, and then go home and get some sleep, while postponing
the search for a real solution to a later date.)

The new agreement tells almost nothing about how the Disembarkation
Platforms would work:

<QUOTE>"5. In order to definitively break the business model
of the smugglers, thus preventing tragic loss of life, it is
necessary to eliminate the incentive to embark on perilous
journeys. This requires a new approach based on shared or
complementary actions among the Member States to the
disembarkation of those who are saved in Search And Rescue
operations. In that context, the European Council calls on the
Council and the Commission to swiftly explore the concept of
regional disembarkation platforms, in close cooperation with
relevant third countries as well as UNHCR and IOM. Such platforms
should operate distinguishing individual situations, in full
respect of international law and without creating a pull
factor."<END QUOTE>

That paragraph contains just over 100 words, and it manages to do so
while saying absolutely nothing.

No country has volunteered to host a Disembarkation Platform.
Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia have explicitly refused, and a spokesman
for one of the three governments in Libya also refused, and said that
he thought the other two governments would refuse as well. One
concern that all of these countries have is that a Disembarkation
Platform would encourage jihadist attacks.

Even if an African country considered hosting one of these
Disembarkation Platforms, there would be international outrage from
human rights activists.

The next paragraph of the agreement extends the detention center
concept to "Controlled Centers" within the EU itself:

<QUOTE>"6. On EU territory, those who are saved, according to
international law, should be taken charge of, on the basis of a
shared effort, through the transfer in controlled centers set up
in Member States, only on a voluntary basis, where rapid and
secure processing would allow, with full EU support, to
distinguish between irregular migrants, who will be returned, and
those in need of international protection, for whom the principle
of solidarity would apply. All the measures in the context of
these controlled centres, including relocation and resettlement,
will be on a voluntary basis, without prejudice to the Dublin
reform."<END QUOTE>

This paragraph says almost nothing. The one thing that it does say --
twice -- is "on a voluntary basis," which means that no country would
have to allow a "Controlled Center" on its soil.

France and Austria, two countries that border Italy, immediately said
that they would not be willing to host Controlled Centers on their
soil.

France's president Emmanuel Macron said that his reading of the
agreement indicated that Controlled Centers would only be set up in
"frontline states," which means Italy and Greece, but certainly not
France. Italy's prime minister Giuseppe Conte issued a rebuke, saying
that "Macron was tired," and did not understand the agreement, since
it said that all EU states could set up the centers, "including
France."

One analyst I heard, who obviously liked this deal, painted a picture
of dozens of these little Controlled Centers located all across the
EU. These people are truly living in Fantasyland. European Council - agreement and Vice News and European Council - Disembarkation Centers

****
**** Italy backs down from threat to veto the agreement over Dublin regulation
****

Italy had threatened to veto the entire agreement unless the "Dublin
regulation" was modified. This regulation specifies that the EU
country that a migrant enters first is the country that must house the
migrant and process his asylum application.

This regulation obviously places almost the entire burden of housing
and processing migrants on Italy and Greece. Italy had demanded that
the regulation be changed so that other countries would have to take a
portion of the migrants entering Italy, but obviously no one wants to
agree to that, and in fact, Hungary, Poland and Austria are opposed to
any change at all to this regulation. So the agreement is silent on
the Dublin regulation.

The rules of the European Council specify that no agreement can be
issued unless it's unanimously agreed. Italy had threatened to veto
any agreement that didn't modify the Dublin regulation. All Italy got
was some vague wording that migration is a European problem, not just
an Italian problem. But the agreement was not vetoed, so apparently
Italy backed down from its threat. Italy's prime minister Giuseppe
Conte may be rebuked by other Italian leaders for this.

The agreement was also silent on "secondary migration," whereby many
migrants that entered Italy went on to settle in Germany. Germany's
Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing a challenge from Horst Seehofer, the
leader of another member of her governing coalition. Seehofer wanted
the agreement to specify that migrants in Germany who entered the EU
in Italy should now be sent back to Italy. This would require a
bilateral agreement between Germany and Italy, and obviously Italy
will not agree to such a deal. Seehofer has threatened to bring down
Merkel's government if he doesn't get his way, and he may do so early
next week. However, there have been some reports that Seehofer is
softening his position, so he may back down also.

At any rate, the only thing that's certain is that even though all the
EU leaders were congratulating themselves and each other for reaching
such a fine agreement, nonetheless that agreement is a fantasy. The
EU is no closer to solving the migration problem than it was a week
ago. AFP and Reuters and Al-Jazeera

Related Articles:

• Desperate European Union considers 'Disembarkation Platforms' for migrants (23-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Italy's migration policy opens up battle lines within the EU (17-Jun-2018)
  
  
• EU faces new crisis as Italy demands that Malta accept African migrants (11-Jun-2018)
  
  
• Italy begs for help after 12,000 migrants arrive in four days (30-Jun-2017)
  
  
• EU migrant crisis moves to Italy as Austria begins closing border (13-Apr-2016)
  
  
• France, Italy have bitter feud over migrants as quota system collapses (16-Jun-2015)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, European Union, Germany, Angela Merkel,
Disembarkation Platforms, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya,
Controlled Centers, Italy, Giuseppe Conte,
France, Emmanuel Macron, Austria,
Hungary, Poland, Greece, Horst Seehofer

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 1-Jul-18 World View -- Syria and Russia create humanitarian catastrophe in Daraa

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Syria and Russia create humanitarian catastrophe in Daraa
  
• Number displaced by Syrian and Russian bombing in Daara triples to 160,000
  

****
**** Syria and Russia create humanitarian catastrophe in Daraa
****


Displaced Syrians camp near Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on Saturday (AFP)

The assault that began on June 19 of the combination of the army of
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad and bombs from Russian warplanes is
threatening a massive humanitarian disaster greater than the combined
sizes of the the humanitarian disasters at Aleppo and Ghouta.

Daraa is supposed to be part of a "de-escalation zone," based on peace
talks last year in Astana, Kazakhstan, between Russia, Iran and
Turkey. An outcome was that Russia and the US agreed that the US
would oversee the ceasefire in Daraa.

Promises and agreements mean nothing to Russia and Syria, and they
never intended to honor the ceasefire. The US does usually honor its
promises, but in this case has chosen not to intervene, rather than
get pulled into yet another war, this time a full-scale war with Syria
and Russia.

Bashar al-Assad has already begun the process that he's used in the
past in Aleppo and Ghouta. He begins by bombing peaceful protesters,
particularly women and children. As soon as someone become violent in
revenge, he declares the whole community or ethnic group to be
"terrorists," and uses that as an excuse for full-scale genocide and
ethnic cleansing. The genocide is performed with missiles, barrel
bombs, chlorine gas and Sarin gas, all particularly targeting women
and children, as well as schools, markets, and hospitals.

The ethnic cleansing is accomplished by making it impossible for
refugees to return to their homes. Last month, Syria's government passed 'Law #10',

which makes it almost impossible for refugees to return to their
former homes. There are millions of Syrian refugees who have fled to
Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Europe and other countries who will not be
able to return home, and are effectively stranded in the country they
fled to.

The situation in southwestern Syria is perfect for al-Assad. By the
time it's over, millions of people will flee their homes, but they'll
have nowhere to go, as they'll be blocked by Jordanian and Israeli
authorities from going south. The refugees will be amassed on the
borders, where al-Assad can kill them like fish in a barrel.

Refugees from Aleppo and Ghouta were able to flee to Idlib province in
northwestern Syria. Idlib is in another de-escalation zone, with
Turkey having the responsibility to oversee the ceasefire.

Turkey is currently worried that it is facing the worst possible
scenario in Idlib. There are currently 2.5 million people living in
Idlib, and 1.2 million people from this figure were displaced and took
refuge in Idlib. As one analyst put it, "Idlib has no Idlib," which
means that when Bashar al-Assad begins genocide and ethnic cleansing
in Idlib, then people who try to flee will have no place to go, except
possibly north through the border into Turkey. Turkey already hosts
millions of Syrian refugees, and is very concerned that it might be
forced to open its borders again to millions more. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Guardian (London) and Hurriyet (Ankara)


****
**** Number displaced by Syrian and Russian bombing in Daara triples to 160,000
****

According to UNHCR, the UN refugee agency, the number of people
displaced by Syria's army and Russia's warplanes in southern Syria is
now at 160,000 -- more than triple what it was on Monday, when the
figure was 45,000.

Most are headed south to Jordan, but are trapped at the border, since
Jordan has closed the border. A smaller number have gone west and are
on the border with Israel-controlled Golan Heights. That border has
also been closed by Israel.

Jordan estimates that it is already hosting some 1.3 million refugees,
and earlier this week said that it is unable to host a new wave of
refugees, and so the border will remain closed. Several thousand
Syrians gathered near sealed crossing on Saturday, pleading to no
avail to enter Jordan.

However, Jordan's army began delivering humanitarian aid to thousands
of displaced Syrians along the border. According to government
spokesman Jumana Ghunaimat, "This is in line with Jordan's stance to
help our Syrian brothers. These include essential foodstuffs and
drinking water."

Israel has transferred several dozen tons of humanitarian aid to
refugee encampments in southwestern Syria. According to Israel's
army, the humanitarian aid contained some 300 tents, 13 tons of food,
15 tons of baby food, three pallets of medical supplies and 30 tons of
clothes and shoes. Israel's defense minister Avigdor Liberman said
that Israel was prepared to provide humanitarian assistance, but that
“we will not accept any Syrian refugees into our territory.” Times of Israel and Middle East Eye and Anadolu

Related Articles

• Tens of thousands fleeing Syrian bombs trapped at closed Jordan border (27-Jun-2018)
  
  
• US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) clash with Syrian regime forces (09-Feb-2018)
  
  
• Israel bombs targets in Syria with Russia's tacit cooperation (06-Dec-2015)
  
  
• Syria and allies threaten war with Israel in the Golan Heights (22-May-2013)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Daraa,
Russia, Jordan, Israel, Aleppo, Ghouta, Turkey,
Jumana Ghunaimat, Daraa

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[pbrower2a]

One gets this when the President of the United States kisses up to the dictator Vladimir Putin. I fail to see what long-term advantage Putin gets from propping up Assad in Syria unless it is to aid the Russian armaments industry.

[John J. Xenakis]

(07-01-2018, 09:13 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: > One gets this when the President of the United States kisses up to
> the dictator Vladimir Putin. I fail to see what long-term
> advantage Putin gets from propping up Assad in Syria unless it is
> to aid the Russian armaments industry.

Russia was completely shut out of the Mideast after the collapse
of the Soviet Union.

Now, for the first time in decades, Russia has two military bases in
the Mideast -- the Tartus naval base, and the Hmeimim airbase, both of
them in Syria, in return for supporting al-Assad.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 2-Jul-18 World View -- Generational explanation of today's vitriolic divisiveness in America

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Generational explanation of today's vitriolic divisiveness in America
  
• Leon Festinger and Cognitive Dissonance
  
• The explanation: Commitment, disconfirmation and Cognitive Dissonance
  

****
**** Generational explanation of today's vitriolic divisiveness in America
****


Celebrity Kathy Griffin and her bloody Donald Trump head

My father was a Greek immigrant who was a fairly objective observer of
American society. When I was a kid, he once told me that in the 1930s
there had been so much violence by Communists and the left that he
hadn't thought that America would survive. Unfortunately, I didn't
ask him what he meant by that, although the comment obviously made an
impression on me since I remember it to this day.

The 1930s was America's last generational Crisis era, previous to the
current one. In the one before that, the 1860s, America was "engaged
in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so
conceived and so dedicated, can long endure."

So today's vitriolic divisiveness is not unique to today, nor is it
unique to America. We're seeing it today in Europe, where the
European Union is being torn apart by issues such as Brexit and
immigration. It's fairly common in any country during a generational
Crisis era.

This week's mass shooting by Jarrod W. Ramos at the Capital Gazette
newspaper in Annapolis, Maryland, has focused the public on the
vitriolic divisiveness. Ramos's motive apparently has nothing to do
with politics, although some in the mainstream media are blaming it on
various comments by president Donald Trump that could have incited
violence, especially his tweets about fake news, or his "punch him in
the face" remark during the 2016 campaign.

However, if Ramos was motivated by political incitement at all, it's
much more likely to have been the much more recent incitement by
Maxine Waters, specifically inciting her supporters to target Trump
officials and physically "push back on them!"

There's a "dog whistle" aspect to incitements to violence. If, like
Trump or Waters, you say something to incite violence by supporters
against opponents, then most people would consider your statement to
be a meaningless rant. But just as a dog whistle can only be heard by
a dog, your statement could serve as a "dog whistle" that would only
be heard by people who are moved to commit actual violence. And the
problem with inciting violence is that you can't control the result,
since you don't know how many dogs on either side are going to hear
that dog whistle and act on it with actual violence. In other words,
if Ramos was moved to act by political incitement, it might have been
the incitement by Trump during the campaign, or by Maxine Waters
during the last few days, or by numerous other people on the left who
are calling for various forms of confrontations and violence against
Trump supporters.

The mainstream media are pointing to various statements by Trump that
could have incited violence in the sense of a "dog whistle":

• At Trump rallies, saying of a heckler, "Get out" or "Get them
  out" or "Get him the hell out."
  
  
• Frequent references to CNN, NBC News, the NY Times and other
  mainstream media as "fake news," and a danger to democracy.
  
  
• “Get him out! Try not to hurt him. If you do, I’ll defend you in
  court," in March 2016.
  
  
• “You know what they used to do to guys like that when they were in
  a place like this? They’d be carried out in a stretcher, folks. I’d
  like to punch him in the face, I tell ya." He was referring to a
  heckler at a a Las Vegas rally in February 2016.

On the other hand, I've seen far more serious incitements to violence
from the left, and I've written about them many times in the last ten
years, including the following:

• A 2006 Hollywood movie, "Death of a President," was a flop,
  but it depicted the assassination of George W. Bush, which was
  certainly the desire of the liberals in Hollywood.
  
  
• The left directed many extremely vitriolic towards the Tea Party.
  I thought it was appalling when supposedly professional journalists
  Anderson Cooper and David Gergen spent time laughing and giggling with
  each other like teenage girls when they referred to Tea Party members
  using the as "teabaggers." ( "Vile 'teabagging' jokes signal the deterioration of CNN and NBC news"
  )
  
  
• In 2009, close presidential Obama adviser James Hoffa, head of the
  Teamsters Union, called for violence and war against the Tea Party
  when he introduced President Obama at a rally by saying:
  "We are ready to march. Let’s take these sons
  of bitches out and give America back to an America where we belong."
  Hoffa's call to violence was, in fact, heeded two weeks later by
  hundreds of members of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union
  members (ILWU) labor union, who violently attacked guards protecting a
  non-union grain terminal in the Port of Longview in Washington state.
  
  
• On December 14, 2012, 20-year-old Adam Lanza fatally shot 20
  children between six and seven years old, as well as six adult staff
  members at the Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut.
  Just a few days earlier, Teamsters Union leader James Hoffa declared
  "civil war" on the country. Union thugs heeded his call in Wisconsin,
  because of a proposed labor
  law, and beat up people, destroyed property, and punched Fox
  commentator Steven Crowder in the face. Hoffa's incitement to
  violence, followed by actual violence, may well have been the "dog
  whistle" that motivated Adam Lanza to perform the Newtown massacre of
  20 children.
  
  
• After Black Lives Matter called for violence against white
  policemen, president Obama invited BLM to the White House, and praised
  them.
  
  
• Left-wing Antifa has been violently attacking conservative
  speakers on university campuses.
  
  
• Various celebrity figures have been inciting violence against
  Trump supporters. The most spectacular was Kathy Griffin posing with
  a bloody Trump head, shown at the top of this article.
  
  
• And of course the current poster child for extreme left-wing
  incitement to violence is Maxine Waters, screaming at the top of her
  lungs: “If you see anybody from that Cabinet in a restaurant, in a
  department store, at a gasoline station, you get out and you create a
  crowd and you push back on them!”

I've been following this trend line since the George Bush
administration, and there has been a steady increase in left-wing
violence and incitement to violence for about 15 years, during the
Bush and Obama administrations, and long before Trump ran for
president.

The vitriolic divisiveness occurs on both the left and the right. But
violence and incitement to violence are almost entirely on the
left-wing side. USA Today and Washington Post and Hollywood Reporter (30-May-2017)

****
**** Leon Festinger and Cognitive Dissonance
****

I've been searching for years for an explanation for the growing
vitriolic divisiveness in America today, as well as in other countries,
and it suddenly occurred to me that the key to understanding it is a
book that I read decades ago.

The 1956 book When Prophecy Fails by Leon Festinger can be
purchased from online booksellers, or is available from https://archive.org/details/pdfy-eDNpDzTy_dR1b0iB as a free PDF.
I read this book decades ago, and it made an enormous impression on
me. I strongly urge everyone to read it.

First I'll describe the book's methodology and conclusions, and then
I'll explain how it applies to America today.

Festinger was interested in religious cults that predict the end of
the world on an explicit date, commit themselves fully to it by giving
up their families and belongings, and then have to face the world
again when the world doesn't end.

This is called "cognitive dissonance," when deeply held beliefs are
contradicted by incontrovertible facts.

Festinger found that people in such a situation do not simply give up
their beliefs because their beliefs were proved wrong. Instead, they
double down on the beliefs, and look for any way to justify them. In
the case of end world predictions, the most likely way is to believe
that God provided the world with a reprieve provided that the chosen
people begin to proselytize the new belief system. From this brief
description, you can get an idea of how this applies to the vitriolic
divisiveness in America today.

Festinger was aware of a religious sect that was predicting the end of
the world on a specific date. Two members of Festinger's team
infiltrated the religious sect. The predictions were based on
messages from extraterrestrials known as the "Guardians" that one cult
member, Mrs. Marian Keech, started receiving. The members of the sect
would be rescued by flying saucers and then, four days later, there
would be a huge flood drowning everyone left behind. The members of
the sect were highly committed to this belief: Many had given up their
families and all worldly belongings to join the other sect members in
a vigil in a member's home, waiting for the end.

The first disconfirmation came when the flying saucers didn't show up
at the predicted time. There were four wrenching days of waiting, as
the saucers failed to come at each newly predicted hour, as specified
by Mrs. Keech as she continued to receive "messages." The final and
biggest disconfirmation came after the four days were up, and the
world did not end.

Although the group were a private sect, what they were doing had
become known, and they received ridicule through the newspapers, and
they received visits by people who believed them and people who
ridiculed them. During the four-day wait, a couple of people, the
people who had joined most recently, left the group, but everyone else
stayed. Here's what happened:

<QUOTE>Chaotic though they may seem, the days immediately
preceding December 21 [the day that the floods were supposed to
appear] were at least loosely organized around a dominant theme --
cataclysm and salvation. By dawn on the 21st, however, this
semblance of organization had vanished as the members of the group
sought frantically to convince the world of their beliefs. In
succeeding days, they also made a series of desperate attempts to
erase their rankling dissonance by making prediction after
prediction in the hope that one would come true, and they
conducted a vain search for guidance from the
Guardians."<END QUOTE>

Another change of behavior was equally familiar in today's politically
divided world: Led by Mrs. Keech, the cult members began actively
proselytizing. They had previously kept information about the
cataclysm secret, "in order to prevent panic." But now they sought
out even the most skeptical nonbelievers, in order to convert them.
For example, one sarcastic commentator whom Mrs. Keech had repeatedly
refused to speak with suddenly was welcomed with open arms. In fact,
Mrs. Keech couldn't stop talking, as he recorded the interview, and
she answered all his questions in detail.

Another reporter who hosted a program on women's issues asked her to
comment, and she spoke at length on what's wrong with education, and
how the messages from the Guardians explained how to straighten it
out.

Hordes of reporters and visitors came to the house, resulting in an
"amiable, manic uproar."

<QUOTE>One further trend was noticeable on December 21. As
the day wore on, Mrs. Keech began to make more and more of the
importance of some recent news items. The morning newspapers
contained an article about an earthquake in Nevada that had
occurred about five days earlier, pointing out that if the quake
had happened in a populated area, the destruction would have been
enormous. Mrs. Keech showed the story excitedly to the members of
the group, emphasizing the fact that, indeed, cataclysms
[i]were happening.... Here, she declared, was evidence for the
validity of the prediction. This theme ... grew in importance in
response to further disaster news."<END QUOTE>[/i]

The next day, the group put out a press release saying that the
Guardians had postponed the cataclysm, "Due to the confusion which has
arisen from the prophecy we have decided to unite forces to complete
the prophecy." In other words, they were proselytizing in a press
release.

Festinger found that when deeply held beliefs are contradicted by
incontrovertible facts, the result is not to abandon the beliefs, but
to double down on them, with any possible explanation, even bizarre
fantastical explanations. This is the result of cognitive dissonance.

Festinger's book lists five conditions that lead to this "cognitive
dissonance" response to disconfirmation:

<QUOTE>"1. A belief must be held with deep conviction and it
must have some relevance to action, that is, to what the believer
does or how he behaves.

2. The person holding the belief must have committed himself to
it; that is, for the sake of his belief, he must have taken some
important action that is difficult to undo. In general, the more
important such actions are, and the more difficult they are to
undo, the greater is the individual's commitment to the belief.

3. The belief must be sufficiently specific and sufficiently
concerned with the real world so that events may unequivocally
refute the belief.

4. Such undeniable disconfirmatory evidence must occur and must be
recognized by the individual holding the belief. ...

5. The individual believer must have social support. It is
unlikely that one isolated believer could withstand the kind of
dis-confirming evidence we have specified. If, however, the
believer is a member of a group of convinced persons who can
support one another, we would expect the belief to be maintained
and the believers to attempt to proselyte or to persuade
nonmembers that the belief is correct."<END QUOTE>

These are Festinger's five conditions for the disconfirmation of a
belief in the end of the world by a religious cult. What has occurred
to me is that we can make slight adjustments to these conditions so
that they apply to political parties, and explain the divisiveness and
left-wing violence in America today. Leon Festinger, When Prophecy Fails and Psychology Today (22-May-2011) and IMDB

****
**** The explanation: Commitment, disconfirmation and Cognitive Dissonance
****

As I've said in the past, the survivors of World War II, the GI
Generation and the Silent Generation, did great things -- they created
the United Nations, World Bank, Green Revolution, World Health
Organization, International Monetary Fund, and so forth. They created
these organizations and managed them for decades with one purpose in
mind: That their children and grandchildren would never have to go
through anything so horrible as the Great Depression or World War II.

Throughout their lives, they worked together, even when they were on
opposite political sides, to protect America and the world from the
excesses that led to the Great Depression and World War II.

In the 1980s, the Republicans and the Democrats cooperated with each
other to change the Social Security system to make it a sounder
system. After that, they cooperated again to specify new rules to
control the budget deficit. And in 1996, Democratic President Bill
Clinton, saying that "the era of big government is over," cooperated
with the Republican congress to eliminate the welfare entitlement.

These politicians had deeply held beliefs that policies must apply the
lessons learned from the Great Depression and World War II. Democrats
and Republicans differed in some policies, but these differences were
minor compared to the shared beliefs of the WW II survivors.

These deeply held beliefs meet Festinger's five conditions, prior to
the point where the disconfirmation occurs.

As the generational Crisis era began in 2003, these WW II survivors
were rapidly disappearing, replaced by younger generations of people
with no shared deeply held beliefs. What deeply held beliefs did they
have? This requires more study, but young people do seem to have
rearranged themselves into groups, with each group having some deeply
held belief. Each of these groups meets Festinger's condition, except
for disconfirmation.

There is one major example of disconfirmation of a deeply held belief
that we've seen in modern times. Prior to November 8, 2016, almost
everyone in the country, Republican or Democrat, believed that Hillary
Clinton would win the presidential election.

Democrats were particularly deeply committed to this belief, and
supportive of one another in that belief. Many made financial
commitments, personal commitments, commitments to live in Washington,
and so forth.

The unexpected Trump victory caused a psychological crisis among a
minority of Democrats that looked very similar to the crisis that
Mrs. Keech and her cult suffered when the world didn't end. There was
a doubling down on beliefs and widespread proselytizing in some of the
most fantastical claims -- just as fantastical as claims that flying
saucers would be coming to save the earth. This explains the demands
for impeachment, the demands for a special prosecutor, the calls for
violence against Trump and his supporters, and so forth.

What I'm saying is that the concepts and principles that Leon
Festinger applied to small religious cults could also be applied to
larger political groups and political parties during a generational
Crisis era, when there's no unifying experience (like WW II). This is
a rich area for research, with results that could explain a great deal
that would help America's democracy at times like this. I've only
scratched the surface.

Finally, let me remind readers of the "Regeneracy" concept from
generational theory. A regeneracy event is one that creates civic
unity for the first time since the end of the preceding crisis war.
In 1861, the regeneracy event was the Battle of Bull Run. In 1941, it
was Pearl Harbor and then the Bataan Death March. It's impossible to
predict what the regeneracy event(s) will be this time -- perhaps a
major military defeat overseas, or perhaps a North Korean nuclear
missile landing in California. But whatever it is, it will unite
people in all political parties behind the president, as they fight to
preserve the country and its way of life.

Related Articles:

• Andrew Sullivan and the Gun Control Fantasy (26-Dec-2012)
  
  
• Left-wing union violence continues to increase in America (12-Dec-2012)
  
  
• Union longshoremen in Washington heed James Hoffa's call for violence (10-Sep-2011)
  
  
• American xenophobia on the Left and on the Right (07-Nov-2010)
  
  
• Vile 'teabagging' jokes signal the deterioration of CNN and NBC news (18-Apr-2009)
  
  
• Why is BBC so blantantly anti-American? - joke of the day (31-Mar-2005)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Jarrod W. Ramos, Capital Gazette,
Maxine Waters, Tea Party, Anderson Cooper, David Gergen,
James Hoffa, Teamsters Union,
International Longshore and Warehouse Union, ILWU,
Sandy Hook Elementary School, Newtown Connecticut, Adam Lanza,
Steven Crowder, Black Lives Matter, Antifa, Kathy Griffin,
Leon Festinger, Cognitive Dissonance, When Prophecy Fails,
GI Generation, Silent Generation,
United Nations, World Bank, Green Revolution,
World Health Organization, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
Battle of Bull Run, Pearl Harbor, Bataan Death March

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John J. Xenakis
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[pbrower2a]

Kathy Griffin with the image of a disembodied head of Donald Trump is a gender-bending twist of the mythological Perseus beheading and then displaying the head of the gorgon Medusa, at whom looking upon her face would turn a man into stone. I can easily imagine the transfer by people of the Left of the myth to Donald Trump, whose words compromise the political morals of his listeners.

As I see it, President Trump either facilitates the rise of a dictatorial new order in America, one that effectively cuts off anyone much to his Left from any relevance in the American political system except perhaps as a potential victim of great personal cruelty or implodes politically, taking his supporters with him into an extended time of irrelevance. Like dictators and despots of the past, he rewards his biggest and most desired supporters with opportunities denied everyone else as he transforms a largely free-market capitalist order into a system of crony capitalism in which people pay to play -- or get raped economically. If he should fail, then God Help Us should his most effective opponents bring a Hugo Chavez act to America.

A key difference between this Crisis Era and the last was that in the last, American political life congealed quickly in a Regeneracy that undid the credibility of the bad behavior that made the Great Depression possible. Of course, the economic meltdown of late 1929 to late 1932 that showed signs of stabilization before the banking crisis that obliged FDR to back the banks went on long enough to destroy much of the wealth that could have been used to buy the political system on behalf of economic elites. This time Barack Obama rescued the banks at an earlier stage of what might have been a similar meltdown, rescuing the economic elites have since bought the American political system. There may have been some suggestion of a Regeneracy in the first two years of the Obama Presidency, but that came to an end. Even with the full consolidation of power by the Republican Party, much dissidence remains, and Donald Trump has been ineffective in quieting it. If anything, he has intensified and provoked its anger with outrageous statements and deeds. The Regeneracy came early in the last Crisis Era, and it has yet to arrive in this one. Notice also that during the Second World War, American political life was far more placid than what it is today.

Obama may have wanted to be the new FDR, but he obviously fell short. Maybe America needed a three-year economic meltdown to prepare Americans for a more collective response to the distress of the time. Donald Trump, who has none of the usual preparation for any effective President in the American past, is effective only in enriching his cronies and provoking his opponents. To fully consolidate American tyranny he must crush his opposition, but for that to happen he must provoke his opponents into outrageous deeds that threaten public order.

The American Left has so far kept its opposition to Trump cultural -- and electoral. Even the Communist Party of the USA (whom I do not trust) has a page that proclaims "Want to slug a Nazi -- DON'T!" The Left still hopes for the defeat of the GOP to the extent that the GOP loses one or both Houses of Congress in 2018. In view of the contempt that President Trump has of anything from the 'squishy' Center-Right (think of Gerald Ford as an example from recent decades) to the Far Left of Maoists and Trotskyites, with the more standard liberals in between; with the Mueller investigation closing on many of his political accomplices; with his failed diplomacy with North Korea; with his friendship with dictators hostile to the heritage of Western liberal democracy; and with the possibility of his Trade War hurting the economic well-being of millions of Americans, including many who usually vote Republican... I can easily imagine a catastrophic failure of this Presidency, one that tries to redeem itself with some self-coup that begins with provocations of violence and property destruction. The worst that he could do is to encourage the rigging of the 2018 and 2020 elections on behalf of himself and his purged Republican Party, and proclaim the results evidence that all that preceded him that he dislikes is no longer relevant.

Constitutional tradition? Extremists have no use for tradition except for promoting their own myths and follies. Human decency? Human decency or its lack emanates from the character of the leader, and as Heraclitus said in one of the shortest quotes worthy of memorization, "Character is destiny". Many see at the least an extreme narcissist, if not an outright sociopath in President Trump.

[John J. Xenakis]

You're just making excuses for left-wing violence. And referring to
Festinger's experiment, calling Trump a sociopath is the equivalent of
predicting the Guardians are coming in flying saucers.